Weather West has provided unique perspectives on California weather and climate since 2006.
Dr. Daniel Swain is a climate scientist in the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at the University of California, Los Angeles, and holds concurrent appointments as a Research Fellow in the Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and as the California Climate Fellow at The Nature Conservancy of California.
Daniel studies the changing character, causes, and impacts of extreme weather and climate events on a warming planet–with a particular focus on the physical processes leading to droughts, floods, and wildfires. He holds a PhD in Earth System Science from Stanford University and a B.S. in Atmospheric Science from the University of California, Davis. His full curriculum vitae is available here.
Peer-reviewed scientific publications
PDF copies made available below are from the author’s personal archive and are intended to be used for non-commercial/educational purposes only. If a PDF is not available, please email me directly to obtain a personal copy.
**Huang, X.Y. and **D.L. Swain. Climate change is increasing the risk of a California Megaflood. Science Advances, 8, 32, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abq0995, 2022. (Equal Contributions /Co-first authors)
Kalashnikov, D.A., Abatzoglou, J.T., Nauslar, N.J., Swain, D.L., Touma, D., & D. Singh. Meteorological factors and elevation dependence of dry lightning in central and northern California. Environmental Research: Climate, 1, 025001, doi: 10.1088/2752-5295/ac84a0, 2022.
Touma, D., Stevenson, S., Swain, D.L., Singh, D., Kalashnikov, D., and X.Y. Huang. Climate change increases risk of extreme rainfall following wildfire in the western United States. Science Advances, 8, eabm0320, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abm0320, 2022.
Fish, M.A., Done, J., Swain, D.L., Wilson, A.M., Michaelis, A.C., Gibson, P.B., and F.M. Ralph. Large-scale environments of successive atmospheric river events leading to compound precipitation extremes in California. Journal of Climate, 35, 1515–1536, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0168.1, 2022.
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Kalashnikov, D., Schnell, J.L., Abatzoglou, J.T., Swain, D.L., and D. Singh. Increasing co-occurrence of fine particulate matter and ground-level ozone extremes in the western United States. Science Advances, 8, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abi9386, 2022.
Brunner, M.I., Swain, D.L., Wood, R.R., Willkofer, F., Done, J.M., Gilleland, E., and R. Ludwig. An extremeness threshold determines the regional response of floods to changes in rainfall extremes. Communications Earth and Environment, 2, doi: 10.1038/s43247-021-00248-x, 2021.
Goldenson, N., Thackeray, C.W., Hall, A., Swain, D.L., and N. Berg. Using large ensembles to identify regions of systematic biases in moderate to heavy daily precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL092026, doi: 10.1029/2020GL092026, 2021.
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Swain, D.L. A shorter, sharper rainy season amplifies California wildfire risk. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL092843, doi:10.1029/2021GL092843, 2021.
Brunner, M.I., Swain, D.L., Gilleland, E., and A. Wood. Increasing importance of temperature as a driver of streamflow drought spatial extent. Environmental Research Letters, 16, 024038, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd2f0, 2021.
Gonzales, K.R., Swain, D.L., Barnes, E.A., and N.S. Diffenbaugh. Moisture- vs. Wind-Dominated Flavors of Atmospheric Rivers. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL090042, doi: 10.1029/2020GL090042, 2020.
Swain, D.L., O.E.J., Wing, Bates, P.D., Done, J.M., Johnson, K., and D.R. Cameron. Increased flood exposure due to climate change and population growth in the United States. Earth’s Future, 8, e2020EF00177, doi: 10.1029/2020EF001778, 2020.
Persad, G.G., Swain, D.L., Kouba, C., and J.P.O. Partida. Inter-Model Agreement on Projected Shifts in California Hydroclimate Characteristics Critical to Water Management. Climatic Change, 162, 1493–1513, doi: 10.1007/s10584-020-02882-4, 2020.
Abatzoglou, J., Smith, C., Swain, D.L., and C. Kolden. Population exposure to pre-emptive de-energization aimed at averting wildfires in Northern California. Environmental Research Letters, 15, 094046, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aba135, 2020.
Brunner, M.I., Gilleland, E., Wood, A., Swain, D.L., and M. Clark. Spatial dependence of floods shaped by spatiotemporal variations in meteorological and land-surface processes. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL088000, doi: 10.1029/2020GL088000, 2020.
Huang, X., Swain, D.L., and A. Hall. Large ensemble downscaling of extreme atmospheric river storms in California reveals large increase in fine-scale precipitation. Science Advances, 6, eaba1323, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aba1323, 2020.
Swain, D.L., Singh, D., Touma, D., and N.S. Diffenbaugh. Attributing extreme events to climate change: A new frontier in a warming world, One Earth, 2, 522-527, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.05.011, 2020.
Goss, M., Swain, D.L., Sarhadi, A., Kolden, C.A., Abatzoglou, J.T., Williams, A.P., and N.S. Diffenbaugh. Climate change is increasing the risk of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California. Environmental Research Letters, 15 (9), 094016, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab83a7, 2020.
Gibson, P.B., Waliser, D.E., Guan, B., DeFlorio, M.J., and D.L. Swain, Ridging associated with drought in western and southwestern United States: characteristics, trends and predictability, Journal of Climate, 33, 2485-2408, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0439.1, 2020.
Huang, X., Swain, D.L., Walton, D.B., Berg, N., Stevenson, S., and A. Hall, Simulating and Evaluating Atmospheric River-Induced Precipitation Extremes along the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Studies from 1980-2017, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2019JD031554, doi:10.1029/2019JD031554, 2020 .
Gonzales, K.R., Swain, D.L., Barnes, E.A., K. Nardi, and N.S. Diffenbaugh, Recent warming of landfalling atmospheric rivers along the West Coast of the United States, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi: 0.1029/2018JD029860, 2019.
D.L. Swain, Is society ready for increasing precipitation whiplash? In: “Toward a Resilient Global Society: Air, Sea Level, Earthquakes, and Weather,” Earth’s Future, doi: 10.1029/2019EF001242, 2019.
Thackeray, C.W., A.M. DeAngelis, A. Hall, D.L. Swain, and X. Qu, On the Connection Between Global Hydrologic Sensitivity and Regional Wet Extremes, Geophysical Review Letters, 45, doi: 10.1029/2018GL079698, 2018.
Touma, D., A. M. Michalak, D.L. Swain, and N.S. Diffenbaugh, Characterizing the spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation over the United States, Journal of Climate, 31, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0019.1, 2018.
Swain, D.L., B. Langenbrunner, J.D. Neelin, and A. Hall, Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California, Nature Climate Change, 8, 427-433, doi: 10.1038/s41558-018-0140-y., 2018.
Swain, D.L., D. Singh, D.E. Horton, J.S. Mankin, T. Ballard, and N.S. Diffenbaugh, Remote linkages to anomalous winter atmospheric ridging over the northeastern Pacific, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 122, doi: 10.1002/2017JD026575, 2017.
Diffenbaugh, N.S., Singh, D., Mankin, J.S., Charland, A., Horton, D.E., Haugen, M., Swain, D.L., Rajaratnam, B., Touma, D., Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114, 4881-4886, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1618082114, 2017.
Singh, D., D. L. Swain, J.S. Mankin, D.E. Horton, L.N. Thomas, B. Rajaratnam, and N.S. Diffenbaugh, Recent amplification of the North American winter temperature dipole, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121, doi: 10.1002/2016JD025116, 2016.
Swain, D. L., Horton, D.E., Singh, D., and N.S. Diffenbaugh, Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California, Science Advances, 2, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1501344, 2016.
Swain, D.L., Lebassi-Habtezion, B., and N.S. Diffenbaugh, Evaluation of non-hydrostatic simulations of Northeast Pacific atmospheric rivers and comparison to in-situ observations, Monthly Weather Review, 143, 3556-3569, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0079.1, 2015.
Horton, D.E., N.C. Johnson, D. Singh, D.L. Swain, B. Rajaratnam and N.S. Diffenbaugh, Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends, Nature, 522, 465–469, doi: 10.1038/nature14550, 2015.
Diffenbaugh, N.S., D.L. Swain and D. Touma, Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California, 112, 3931-3936, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1422385112, 2015.
Swain, D.L., A tale of two California droughts: Lessons amidst record warmth and dryness in a region of complex physical and human geography, Geophysical Review Letters, doi:10.1002/2015GL066628, 2015.
Swain, D.L., M. Tsiang, M. Haugen, D. Singh, A. Charland, B. Rajaratnam and N.S. Diffenbaugh, The extraordinary California drought of 2013-2014: character, context, and the role of climate change [in “Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective”], Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95 (9), S3–S7, 2014.