Wet pattern looks to be short-lived

Well, NorCal has seen some significant rainfall totals over the past 4 days, but only in rather isolated orographically-favored areas. The North Bay Mountains as well as the Santa Cruz Mountains have seen 4-6 inches of rain since Wednesday. We have seen a solid 5 inches here in San Rafael. That may sound like a lot (and it’s certainly better than nothing) but some of these recording stations see average monthly totals of nearly 20 inches this time of year. Stations in the populated parts of the Bay Area have seen far less–generally 0.5 inches to as much as 2 inches. SoCal has remained mostly dry thus far, but I do expect some rain to finally make it to Los Angeles and probably San Diego tonight and tomorrow. This was a storm that never really got going…despite a very moist and prolonged tropical plume aimed over the region…a lack of dynamics prevented any truly heavy precip from occurring. Even here…with 5 inch totals over the week…it was a continuous light rain with only occasional moderate downpours for nearly 90 hours. The High Sierras did pick up some snow from this event, but a lot of the warm rain actually served to melt what little snow remained at elevations below 7000 feet.  Some local downpours and even an isolated thunderstorm are possible tonight pretty much anywhere in the state, inc. SoCal. Tomorrow will see showers, esp. SoCal. Thereafter, a very weak and slightly unstable disturbance moves in on Monday/Tues., but any rainfall should be light. The rest of the week no longer looks very promising for precip, esp. in SoCal. So…after some relatively minor rains tonight, no more real rain is in sight for a while. What had the potential to turn this month into a “Fabulous February” has degenerated into a mediocre event, at best. There’s still the hope for a “Miracle March,” I suppose…

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