Quick update this PM. A substantial tropical tap can currently be seen on satellite iimagery streaming tpwards the Pacific coast from near the dateline. This plume will slowly consolidate and sink southwards towards the Bay Area over the next 48 hours. Details still need to be worked out, but an extended period of moderate to heavy warm advection precipitation is likely over much of NorCal beginning Sunday night and lasting until early Tuesday. Could be looking at 3-5 inches of rain, and the possiblity of local (minor) flooding. But, as has been the case thus far this year, SoCal will likely miss the heaviest precip. In fact, would only expect light amounts at this time. After Tuesday, the pattern still looks wet for NorCal and points north, but not extremely so. It is worth mentioning, however, that there’s a lot of energy and moisture in the Pacific jet right now, and given the current tendency towards a MJO-type wave and the ongoing El Nino, believe that the possibility still exists for some significant precipitation statewide between now and the end of the second week in January (though probably not before the new year in SoCal). Stay tuned…
