Flash flooding in SoCal likely; burn areas at risk

Another relatively short update this evening. Our major winter storm has made little eastward progress today with a sharp rainfall gradient from west to east even over NorCal. Right along the coast and in the Santa Cruz mountains, a training line of heavy precipitation and embedded thunderstorms continues to inundate the region. 2-4 inches have already fallen in the wettest areas, and an additional 2-5 inches are possible in the same area over the next 24 hours. This will likely lead to flash flooding and mudslides. This intense frontal band is expected to hold together as it finally begins to move east and south tonight, bringing heavy rain, strong winds, and scattered thunderstorms to the Central Coast (and points south on Monday). Flash flooding is a threat just about anywhere in SoCal, not just the burn areas, especially with the numerous areas of very intense convective training still popping up all around the low center. Isolated thunderstorms are possible anywhere in the state of CA through Tuesday night, but the best chance will generally be along the coast (except for Tuesday afternoon in the Central Valley). Some isolated severe storms are not out of the question. The low moves slowly ashore in CA on Monday evening and falls apart, bringing an unstable airmass and more convective precipitation with it. We will begin to dry out on Wednesday for at least a few days. The models are stuggling immensely with the extended, but the potential exists for a very strong storm in that time frame, as well. Stay tuned.

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