Typical early autumn conditions prevail; some thoughts on La Niña

Filed in Uncategorized by on October 5, 2017 2,837 Comments

A pretty typical early start to autumn across California

Warmer than average conditions have persisted near the immediate coast, but temperatures have cooled over inland areas (and the Sierra Nevada in particular). (WRCC)

For the first time in many months, California has been experiencing weather conditions pretty close to the climatological norm for the time of year. After a summer of searing, record-breaking heat, the past few weeks have featured temperatures relatively close to typical early autumn values across much of the state (temperatures have actually been somewhat below average across interior portions of the state, particularly across the Sierra Nevada, where the season’s first dusting of snow fell last week). In a welcome reversal from the relentless inland heat this summer, conditions have been warmer than average only along the immediate coastline–not an unusual fall set-up in California.

Generalized statewide warming will occur over the next few days, and some late-season heat will occur over near-coastal portions of central and southern California this weekend as offshore flow develops. In fact, gusty hilltop winds and very low humidity will lead to fire weather concerns this weekend in the Bay Area and Southern California coastal hills. But a gradual cool-down back toward typical values is expected once again later next week, and perhaps even a bit below average after that. These relatively mild temperature swings–with occasionally breezy conditions–are the product of “inside slider” type low pressure systems dropping southward over the Great Basin. These systems are unlikely to bring any significant precipitation to California over the next 1-2 weeks, and conditions look dry for the foreseeable future across most of the state.

An Pacific ridge plus increasing offshore pressure gradients will lead to warm, dry, and gusty conditions this weekend across coastal California. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

 

What’s up with October precipitation in California?

There’s often much consternation on the part of California weather watchers when dry conditions persist during the month of October. It’s certainly true that October is often the transition month between California’s long, dry summers and (usually) wet winters, and almost always brings cooler nights, milder days, and a general sense that winter is coming. However, autumn in California is also characterized by dramatic year-to-year swings that ultimately have little bearing on conditions during the rainy season that follows. (A quick analysis using data from NOAA confirms that the correlation between October and December-February statewide precipitation is a minuscule, and not statistically meaningful, 0.09).

October precipitation in California is usually quite low, except for occasional very wet years. (NOAA data; graphic by Daniel Swain)

Why, then, is there so much excitement over what happens during the month of October? My best guess is that our collective perception of what constitutes a “typical October” is strongly shaped by a quirk of California climatology. The historical precipitation distribution during this month exhibits a strong “rightward skew”–in other words, there are many more dry Octobers than wet ones overall, but when October is wet, it can be quite wet indeed. The more general statement that there are “more dry years than wet years” holds true across California, but this effect seems to be particularly pronounced in early autumn. The reason? October tends to be dominated by essentially “summer-like” high pressure during most years, with relatively modest precipitation outside of the northernmost part of the state. Every 5-10 years, however, October can become very wet month indeed–and some notably powerful early-season storms have affected Northern California in recent years. Anecdotally, there does seem to be a link between “recurving” West Pacific super typhoons and California’s occasional very wet Octobers, but that’s a discussion for another day.

 

La Niña now developing in Pacific; what can we say about upcoming winter?

The Multi-Model Ensemble suggests rather classic La Nina conditions this winter, plus very warm conditions in the subtropical Pacific. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

A substantial La Niña event now appears to be developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean. There were hints of this in the coupled ocean-atmosphere models this summer, though the magnitude appears to have been underestimated. In any case, there is now a general consensus that the now-established cool ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific will persist through most of the upcoming winter. Concurrently warm temperatures in the far western Pacific (and a much broader area of anomalous warmth in the subtropical North Pacific) have the potential to reinforce a fairly classic “La Niña-like” atmospheric response this winter by further strengthening the west-east tropical temperature differential.

What does all of this mean for California? Well, that’s a bit of a loaded question in the wake of two very conspicuous seasonal forecast failures over the past two winters in California. The very powerful El Niño event in 2015-2016 yielded a dry winter in southern California, and the ENSO-neutral winter just last year was one of the wettest on record across northern portions of the state. Both of these outcomes were contrary to expectations, and there has recently been a surge in scientific inquiry regarding why this might have happened.

Current multi-model forecasts suggest an slightly increased likelihood of dry conditions later this winter in/near California. (CPC)

While the jury is still out (and analyses are still underway–peer reviewed science tends to proceed slowly relative to shifting weather patterns!), leading contenders are 1) the unusually broad pattern of ocean warming in recent winters and 2) just plain old “bad luck.” In other words: it is possible that the atmospheric response to ocean temperature variations caused by El Niño/La Niña is now different than it would have been if the subtropical Pacific hadn’t been so warm in recent years. But scientists have also known for a long time that ENSO, despite being the single strongest indicator regarding California precipitation on the seasonal scale, is far from the only game in town. It may well be that other influences were simply more important in recent years, essentially drowning out the ENSO influence.

Nevertheless, there is still very strong theoretical and observational evidence that El Niño and La Niña do indeed exert a substantial and somewhat predictable influence upon California winter precipitation. In practice, this influence is large enough to influence seasonal forecasts only during moderate to strong El Niño/La Niña events, and that influence is strongest 1) in Southern California and 2) during the second half of winter (especially late January, February, and March).

Warm conditions likely this fall, per NMME forecasts. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Cooler conditions may edge toward California later this winter. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

So what about this year? Well, it looks like La Niña may indeed reach at least moderate strength over the next couple of months and will have a rather “classic” presentation across the tropical Pacific, suggesting that there may be an elevated risk of drier than average conditions during the second half of winter, particularly across Southern California. This is a conclusion supported by current seasonal model forecasts, but only weakly. Temperature wise, there is near unanimity that the autumn will be quite warm on average across California (apparently a product of very warm ocean temperatures over the subtropical Pacific Ocean). Later in the winter, however, there is also agreement regarding a trend toward a more La Niña-like temperature pattern–with below average temperatures across the Pacific Northwest possibly extending into California. (Interestingly, seasonal temperature forecasts tend to do much better than precipitation forecasts in the presence of a significant La Niña event. The presence of persistent North Pacific high pressure is the classic atmospheric response to La Niña, which reliably allows cold air to spill southward from Alaska/Canada but only sometimes blocks the Pacific storm track sufficiently to prevent rain to California).

So, to sum it all up: a moderately strong La Niña event this winter will tilt the odds slightly in favor of a dry second half of winter, especially in the south. Autumn temperatures will likely be above average, but winter temperatures may trend back toward or below average.

 

“Climate Change Cliff Notes” interactive discussion on Thursday, October 5

I’ll be having a free-form conversation on climate change (with a California focus) with Sarah Feakins and Michael Mann tonight at the Los Angeles Museum of Natural History. The (free) tickets for this event sold out weeks ago, but there will be some limited availability for those who show up at the door. If you are interested but can’t attend (or make it in the door), the event will also be livestreamed via the web on the UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability’s Facebook page starting at 7pm.

 

  • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

    Sprinkling in Santa Barbara… I guess fantasies can come true.

  • Chowpow

    Does anyone have a link to a site that shows the previous ~weeks pressure anomaly for the state?

    • AllHailPresidentCheetoJesus

      Is that “normal” for this late in the year?

    • cthenn

      We’re gonna be a desert in a few decades…

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      I’m tired of this heat. Bring me something else.

      • Taz & Storm Master

        How about 50ft snow

        • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

          Mammoth Lakes would like that. 🙂

      • Dan the Weatherman

        It is looking as if this heat for early next week is going to be accompanied by Santa Ana winds, so this is going to be a fall pattern as opposed to a summer pattern. I am getting tired of the heat this year, too, and I am hoping that next week’s heat is the last major hot spell for the year of temperatures in the 90’s or higher.

    • Azmordean

      Most forecasts I’m seeing show a decent warmup early next week, but nothing crazy, low to mid 80s in Mountain View. I assume they just aren’t 100% bought in to the model guidance yet?

    • Nathan

      Heat followed by wind followed by lightning followed by record heat. What could possibly go wrong?

  • Thanks for the updates Daniel…now stop being the Debbie Downer today. lol 😉

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Not what we need right now. And a Moderate to potentially strong Santa Ana looms large for early next week. 🙁

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Clouds up here are impressive believe it or not… Extending my worries with the fact they are elevated and virga does seem to be the name of the game.

      • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

        I know we don’t need it or want it, but a Santa Ana event soon would be completely normal for fall here. It’s almost expected at some point…

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Howard had a lil update yesterday-

    Maybe some hope?

    “So far, these Typhoons are destructively phasing with westerlies. This situation favors even stronger height rises over the far west the end of this week into next. In that it is possible that one of these typhoons could constructively phase during the week two period, the longer range guidance should not be relied upon to any great degree.”

  • Nathan

    Believe it or not, both the models picked up the track and intensity of this Thurs storm incredibly accurately 10+ days ago (assuming not much changes in 3 days).

    The emergence and inclusion of that tropical feature, which is obv much more difficult to forecast, threw things off for a few days but the overall track and intensity have been more or less consistent (moderate rain north of bay area) for at least 10 days.

    • Darin

      Was there a link or pic you intended to include of “this storm”

      • Nathan

        not really, there’s been dozens of screenshots of model runs posted over the prev 10-12 days…

    • alanstorm

      Maybe that’s how they got the robust “4 forecast Thus-Fri for the DelNorte Co mountains.
      Hopefully, moisture a-plenty in the coming months
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2f65fafdc1a721658804aad4d23507ae283aca229f92205028889f9ccdb7fe1f.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/53ccb072bfa7c018865191c2b82f9c1db82c712ae42816df5489f569b7998521.png

      • Cap’n

        I don’t think that part of California counts here.

        • weathergeek100

          So true! That’s basically the pacific NW.

          • Cap’n

            I was being sarcastic. There’s a lot of land between the Bay area and Oregon.

      • It’s so close to the ? How depressing

      • Darin

        I wager the I-80 cuts it off and everything south of that gets the shadow (and the bird). I’m going full @fairweathercactus on this one. I live in Folsom and we never get the goods (WAAAHHH!!!). Seriously, rain the northern valley, lightning in central, snow in the hills even in Roseville(!), and winds on the plains.

        • Yeah but you’ve probably seen more towering cumulonimbus and lightning than I have in most of my lifetime in the past couple years, and if you want to go tornado chasing you can just go towards The Buttes a bit. Really, your problem isn’t a bad one, I lived at Donner Summit last winter and there were many times I wouldn’t have had a problem with living down in the valley! It’s mostly the issue is getting to and from work that puts me in such difficult living places. I shoveled more snow than I probably ever will again in my life, so enjoy your mild weather 🙂

  • Freddy66

    12z is nasty. That high sits over the state for two weeks.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette
    • Cap’n

      Buddy in Olympia is forecast for 5-8″ over the next several days. It’s a shame we haven’t already got a couple ARs yet.

      • AlTahoe

        A lot of people are going to burn out early this year by freaking out over every model run in Mid Oct. Lol
        Getting major storms before Thanksgiving is usually a once every 5 years type thing.

        • thlnk3r

          It’s fairly typical around this time of year (Fall) when individuals start to panic or spread FUD (fear uncertainty doubt). Those that live in So Cal should know the pattern by now. October is a swing Month with ups and downs. Not sure why all the panic. Rainy season kicks in closer to December and ends in February. Ridges (100F) is not an unheard thing in So Cal for October. ¯_(?)_/¯

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            For me, I’m noticing the mouthy ones complaining generally have moved to the state within 10 years or less, however natives are indeed the ones noticing the change in warmth.

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            Not just the warmth, but I’ve noticed that the sun’s heat seems more intense lately. For me, standing outside on a bright hot day, the sun’s rays seem to just scorch my skin. I can’t take it for long. Maybe it because my skin is 67 years old?

          • AlTahoe

            Well put. If you live in Southern Cal and cant come to terms with the information you listed above, you really need to move to a better climate. San Jose had the most boring weather ever, so I decided to move to a more dynamic weather location.

          • Wait, San Jose has weather? I was under the impression they kept that kind of riffraff run out of town by order of the CARB Baron.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            October is Santa Ana wind season, not the rainy season, and it can get really hot with an upper high / Santa Ana wind combo. Some years we do get rain in October like last year, but other years have Octobers more like we are experiencing now. If this pattern continues past mid November, then I would be worried about a dry winter, but it is still too early to panic just yet.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            October weather is very hit or miss for SoCal, and most commonly a “miss”.

            I’ve lived here all my life, and my fond weather memories of October are quite few and far between. Among the best was Oct 2004, which saw cool weather and the beginning of a very wet season starting around October 17th of that year.

            More often than not, we have a “Red October” with ridges, Santa Ana events (Many of which have been stronger than we’ve seen so far this season) and of course the dry heat waves thanks to adiabatic heating from the offshore/downslope flow.

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2569c32c61d85e0f6a0504cb3fa871a3d9480a6e2332433533c7de1fb82f5658.png

          • thlnk3r
          • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

            Seems normal to me. No one down here should be expecting much rain in early fall…

        • Chris

          Thank you for your dose of sanity!
          We should all have bigger, more important things to “freak out” about.

        • Cap’n

          So far this has been the most “typical” fall we’ve had in awhile up here. I’m loving it, and it’s nice to not have to cover my wood yet. Last year my wood took a serious beating early on and never fully recovered. There will surely be an uprising soon if we don’t get a deluge. Who knows what this winter will bring. To me, this is my favorite time of year where we truly just don’t know and anything is possible. But Matthew said it best a few weeks ago, the easy and safe bet is drier and warmer than average. Predict that in this state and you’ll more than likely be right most of the time. We have a lot of dry years offset by big years. Averages mean so little with big California outlier years skewing it up.

          • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

            “Last year my wood took a serious beating early on and never fully recovered.”

            As Hank would say from the Larry Sanders show……..Hey now!

          • Cap’n

            More often than not it’s in pretty bad shape.

          • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

            Touche…….

          • Cap’n

            Was the Larry Sanders show the one with Gary Shandling? I liked that show. I’m pretty addicted to Curb Your Enthusiasm right now.

          • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

            Yes….it was. His sidekick Hank would say Hey now, at the funniest times.

            I’m also a big fan of ‘curb. The new shows are not as funny as Larry David’s earlier ones…..imo.

          • AlTahoe

            Curb is awesome. Season 8 episode 9 had me dying.

          • inclinejj

            Everyone has told me, if you liked Seinfeld you will like Curb.

            I don’t get that show, can’t get into it. Curb.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Subtropical clouds outside. That explains why it was around 60 early this morning. Cooler days are here for now.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Strikes went quiet for a bit, but have now revitalized off the coast again. Clouds are disorganized at the moment, but from latest satellite, I’m just at the tip of a patch of elevated convection moving over the channel. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/98a6eb0f93e7a67c3bc52be832e42ef8e8d2a5910d8e2d854a8125f10882f009.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7f437a9a2b84f5c0798305a471eaeff9208ec9aeb31a5531cbbf2ea57cc62d44.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eeea4c8ccafd7cfdcfb1f845e6db328d4146c27cda0c688bc8fb1b81ac7033b2.jpg

  • redlands

    Was 102 in Redlands, Ca on 10/16/17 —

    • AlTahoe

      Was that a record? I see that the record for today is 103F from 1958

      • AlTahoe

        Never mind I found it and the record yesterday was 104F.

      • redlands

        Record for the day was 104 at my station — so it came in at 2nd warmest

  • weathergeek100

    Chance of rain for bay area has dwindled to 50%. More 90s and 100s forecasted for SoCal. It’s almost November. I’m headed to LA for thanksgiving. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was 95 degrees.

    • AlTahoe

      I think it was Thanksgiving 2013 that I went down to Alpine outside of San Diego and it was 98F when I got there. It was 12F on my drive through Bridgeport, so in one day I went from low teens to high 90’s. Crazy.

    • redlands

      can be in the upper 80’s round turkey day in the Redlands, ca — southern ca

  • Thunderstorm

    100mph winds over the top of the Sierras, in the eastern valleys downslope enhanced winds. Fire weather concerns and then record heat next week. Crazy stays crazy. NWS from Reno this morning.

    The smoke rolled into the east bay this morning big time. If you just woke up and looked outside you would think it was fog. So looked at the hot spot map from arcgis.com and it shows movement down the mountain southwest of St. Helena. Must be burning pretty good as it shows up on infrared satellite with a dull white spot.

    Getting close to the time southern California gets the heat with off shore winds.

    • RunningSprings6250

      Was 101 in the inland IE when I was DTH yesterday – so when does the heat arrive?! LOL! ?

      • Dan the Weatherman

        It was 94 here in Orange yesterday, so I would say the heat arrived on Sunday and continued yesterday. It appears that after a brief cool down later this week, it is going to get hot again sometime this weekend and early next week with more Santa Ana winds possible.

        • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

          It has for the most part just been breezy for me. I wonder if we will get some more significant winds ( not that anyone wants fire weather… )

          • Dan the Weatherman

            We really lucked out this last weekend with only breezy conditions here in inland Orange County. It was forecast to be much windier initially, but the forecast wind speeds were decreased somewhat as the event approached. What actually happened was even weaker than forecast, thankfully. This allowed more time to get any remaining hot spots of the Canyon Fire 2 out before the next round of stronger winds occurs, which looks to be this weekend.

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          More heat but not necessarily windy, I hope for next week.

        • RunningSprings6250

          It was 96 in Hollywood on saturday…..

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      “Getting close to the time southern California gets the heat with off shore winds.”

      It’s been happening to us for a couple of weeks now. I registered a high of 102 degrees yesterday.

    • ben

      Can someone explain “downslope enhanced winds” for me?

      • RunningSprings6250

        Things that go downhill speed up more than if it was flat ???????

  • Thunderstorm

    The Bear Fire in the Santa Cruz mountains started last night, around 150 acres,5% containment. Air support limited due to smoke. Smoke like a fog here today.

  • RandomTreeInSB

    So the consensus is that it will not rain ever again…right? Or are we having another spell of doom and gloom like it has always been? 🙂

    • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

      Model instability syndrome

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Wait until Thanksgiving. Long range doesn’t see a favorable pattern change until at least Halloween. We’re in for record average highs for October at this rate. 🙁

    • jstrahl

      Quoting Jerry Garcia, “Just like always, Weir.”

      • CHeden

        classic.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      It seems for some on here that is the consensus.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    October started off very mild; first 90° max was 10/6 followed by nice cooldown [79° on 12th]. But extended heat this week and more next week will likely hijack any chance for negative departures.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Another day in the 80s in Santa Maria. This subtropical airmass isn’t helping cooling our atmosphere.

  • weathergeek100

    Someone posted a link here last week about historical storms in CA (it was an e-book type of thing that you can read). I lost the link, but I remember when I looked through it, I saw charts for historical averages of rainfall for every year since the 1800s, and if the precip has increased overall or decreased. The trend over the last century was this: precip in northern CA has increased, precip in central CA has stayed about the same or slightly increased, and precip in Southern CA has DECREASED over the last century. The decrease in SoCal precip had the most significant change. I know 100+ years is a small sampling, but it’s still concerning to me. It just seems that more and more, NorCal (mainly far norcal), is seeing more above avg years and SoCal below average, and that the rain/no rain line has a sharper and sharper cutoff somewhere along the central coast.

    • jstrahl

      Seems to fit this study regarding future trends, which sees 14.1% increase in NorCal (north of Santa Rosa), 15.1% increase in CentCal (down to Santa Maria) and a 3.3% decrease in SoCal. Came out a couple of months ago.Includes a map.
      https://phys.org/news/2017-07-california-wetter-century.html

    • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      I think its the Hadley cell expansion which has in turn pushed HP towards baja. This has in turn killed storms as they approached SoCal.

      In the last 20 years, I would also say that the types of storms we get has changed. It seems we now get less dynamic storms, but what we do get
      have Pwats that are higher than normal. Unfortunately we need the dynamics to turn the abundant moisture into rain.

    • RandomTreeInSB

      Can you post the link? In Santa Barbara, which is pretty far south, there hasn’t been significant trends in rainfall since 1900.

    • Nate
      • weathergeek100

        Yup

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Biting my tongue on this one. I’m in agreement. Cloud tops over the airmass are quite puffy nonetheless. Wondering what’s in store for the mountains this afternoon & evening… I’ll be watching from work until 7ish.

    Area forecast discussion… updated National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California 1124 am PDT Tue Oct 17 2017

    Lax-dag gradient continues to trend about 1mb onshore this morning so we should see a couple degrees of cooling today for coastal/valleys, but still well above normal. The main thing we’re looking at today is the moisture and vort Max a couple hundred miles to the west. Models had a pretty good analysis of it this morning and both the NAM and GFS show this feature starting to curl towards the southeast and into the so cal bight area early this evening and through Ventura and la counties overnight. And models are no longer showing much cape across slo County or across the coastal waters north of pt Conception this afternoon as they once did, yet we’re seeing lightning strikes about 60-80 miles west of the outer waters boundary this morning. So this is a tough forecast. For now will hold onto some slight chances of showers/storms mainly sb/slo counties and adjacent waters this afternoon and evening and will re-evaluate this afternoon for possible overnight convection south of pt Conception.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    L.A. DOWNTOWN SUNNY 92 32 12 VRB6 29.96F
    L.A. AIRPORT MOSUNNY 78 63 59 W13 29.98F
    REDONDO BEACH N/A 78 64 63 SW5 29.97F

    Nice dewpoint recovery and onshore wind at the coast.

  • alanstorm

    Santa Cruz county emergency services website is of course NOT WORKING, “anxious residents flooding the county with phone calls because websites are delivering *this site cannot be reached* messages…”
    What a joke.
    4 homes destroyed now in the Bear Fire

    • Thunderstorm

      Smoke continues to increase here and humidity dropping. Currently 31%. SW flow has already started. SF bay area by Fremont. Winds will increase tomorrow from the SW in the SC. Mts. Bear Fire is burning at the 1,200-1,600 ft elevation. Steep climb to the NW of the fire to 2,800 feet. Likely this fire goes big tomorrow.

      • CHeden

        Hate to say it, but this may be a great call.
        Hoping yer full of sh*t, though.
        LoL.
        Keeping our fingers crossed there’s enough fire fighters left in California to get somewhat of a quick handle on this thing. Next week is a real concern.

      • alanstorm

        Los Gatos getting nervous.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        Reports are they’re creating dozer lines a ridge or two over for a contingency plan just in case.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      I believe on the news they said a phone line got cut by a Caltrans tree crew.

      • One tree falling forward cuts powerlines two steps back 🙂

    • Jim (Watsonville)

      I believe they said “structures”…a structure can be just about anything…the incident commander at the 10am presser even made that clear. There are some funky things built or placed in those mountains!!
      On the initial dispatch last night, they issued a safety notice to all responding units for possible trip wires around the property. The home was occupied by a parole who liked a little advanced warning of visitors.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Lets just hope the NWS does not put up a Flash Flood watch like last month. That was a monster bust.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      I don’t think there’s much chance of that since the lower levels are bone-dry.

  • Very bad air quality in South San Jose right now due to the Bear Fire.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette
  • Thunderstorm

    Look at all the lightning off the coast. Not a good thing. Big Sur heads up!!

  • MetaGhost (Berkeley)
    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      I believe the CHP Reopened 101 and stated the fire was 50% contained.

    • jstrahl

      Explains why Berkeley was smokey this afternoon, that plus the Boulder Creek fire.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    NWSLA

    “By Tuesday, which could be the start of
    the World Series in Los Angeles, highs downtown are expected to
    reach or exceed 100 degrees while valleys are a few degrees warmer
    than that. If the current forecast holds we`ll likely need heat
    advisories or possibly warnings for much of LA/Ventura counties
    Mon/Tue.”

    Go Dodgers!

    • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

      I’m not OK with any of that. Particularly the last line.

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        I could do without triple-digit temps but relish the idea of a Dodger/ Yankee world series.

        • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

          As a Giants fan, go Yankees!

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            Hell yeah

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            Yankees may not even get past Houston. As a Giants fan, haven’t you had enough disappointment this year? 😉

          • LOL yeah go Cubs. North of Fresno: “anybody but the Dodgers”

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            Probably South of Orange County they feel the same.

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            We’re not too dissapointed given we won 3 World Series in a 5 year span and beat you guys in the playoffs atleast a couple times

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Dear NWS Oxnard,
      Once you are 100% accurate with your 5 day forecasts, then you can move on to predicting which cities will host the World Series. Right now, you’re more likely to just jinx it. 😛

      • Fairweathercactus

        Lets hope we do not have a huge earthquake like the one years ago in San Fran during the world series.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          That’s cause it was a Bay Area World Series – Giants and A’s. It would only happen like that here if the Dodgers and Angels were playing each other in a World Series. LOL.

          • Fairweathercactus

            Today is the anniversary of that. It was also a warm October day if I remember.

    • Freddy66

      Thankfully…it looks the intense heat only lasts a few days. Looks like some inside slider action in fantasyland.

  • Taz & Storm Master
    • tomocean

      We’ll take it!

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Smoke has pushed away from the Penninsula in the last hour, but boy the East Bay looks bad and covered with smoke along with the South Bay. 🙁

    • I can’t see what’s what today.

    • inclinejj

      Very clear in Pacifica. Yesterday 92 degrees today barely mid 60’s.

    • Tuolumne

      Confirmed by airnow.gov, at the time.

  • Candleman (Santa Barbara)
    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Dew point temps aren’t too bad but it is hot down at the beach
      SBA APT/GOLETA MOSUNNY 91 43 18 W8 29.90F
      *SANTA BARBARA N/A 83 47 28 SW1 29.99F

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    And the fire day keeps getting busier, a brush (grass) fire in the Dublin area has some residences sheltering in place and all events at the Fallon Sports Complex canceled for the day.

    http://www.ktvu.com/news/fire-crews-respond-to-fire-in-dublin#/

    • alanstorm

      Wife just sent me a text saying there are now mandatory evacuations. Is this true?

    • inclinejj

      One in Sausalito. Looks to be a cigarette flipped out of a car on Highway 1.

      • Telegraph Hill

        I got stuck in the traffic from this one. Where did you read it was a cigarette butt? Seems the most likely culprit to me also. Scary to have one so close to SF. They jumped all over it.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    1st cold snap of the season come around nov 2nd?

    i think are next pattern change will come around the 1st week of Nov what kind not sure whats keep a eye on the long range and see what they cook up

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017101718/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_swus_52.png

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      The 18Z shows a strong ridge building in the Gulf and north pacific.

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017101718&fh=6

      • Taz & Storm Master

        am talking about the long term forecast not the short term

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          That is long term. 384 hours out. Nov 2nd

      • jstrahl

        But where , in the east/west scheme of things?

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          Centered off oregon/washington extends in to gulf of alaska. Subtdopical is blocking in model but could setup zonal flow underneath i imagine

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      We usually hit a wall in the Bay Area in November where we don’t get another high above 80 F (usually) until April or May. Atleast that’s true for my part of the Bay

      • Tuolumne

        That’s been my experience, generally. I have seen low 80s in early November.

        • alanstorm

          How much does static electricity play in fire conditions?
          Just sitting outside, petting my cat in the dark: little lightning-bolts/pops of static like when u take your socks out of the dryer

      • alanstorm

        It’s been fairly cool nights up here during this whole fire thing.
        I had to don my winter coat that Sunday night.
        We had a frost advisory several nights ago.

    • Jim (Watsonville)

      That far out, your better off flipping a coin

    • Thunderstorm

      MJO should make its influence here about that time also. Currently in phase 5 and a long way from the circle of death.

    • weathergeek100

      I call bs

      • Cap’n

        Get a grip on your meltdown.

        • weathergeek100

          Lol yeah I got a bit frustrated. Posted a lot I realize that. Mostly just tired of the warmth. I’ll be over it though….maybe. I’m in a better mood this morning.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    SLO County might get the bullseye. We might get a sprinkle or two here.

  • thebigweasel

    Still hot and humid in SB, dark clouds streaming overhead, wind is from the N, 30 gusting to 45.

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      Just had a 58mph gust up here…can’t wait for the on-shore push Thursday.

      • thebigweasel

        Yeah, I know. These are very scary winds.

  • Thunderstorm

    Only 2 hours to show time.

    • It’s showtime…give me back my money.

    • alanstorm

      There are plenty of shows on the horizon

  • SloTruckeeJohn

    A light sprinkle and a few fat drops in San Luis Obispo. If I think real hard I can almost smell rain. 😉

    • bk2ftr (Atascadero)

      Not even that much over the grade. Models showed it petering out and that’s exactly what happened.

  • Nathan
  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Sprinkling in Santa Maria. My prayers are answered. Sort of.

  • Thunder98

    Its sprinkling outside and it smells like rain!

  • RunningSprings6250

    64F at just about 8pm. That would be a warm evening/night for July or August let alone the middle of October….

    • AlTahoe

      For your elevation that is pretty crazy. I haven’t seen a warm night like that since early September. It is 43F here currently.

      • Pfirman

        Hot air rises?

    • weathergeek100

      We’ve had more hot nights here in the coastal Bay Area than much of the summer.

      If it makes you feel any better, our chance of rain is dwindling more and more. A few days ago, NWS gave us the ‘rain’ wording for this Thursday evening, then changed to ‘rain likely’, then changed to 50% chance and now at 40%. At this rate, we might get a lousy drizzle shower or maybe nothing at all. We have devastation in the north bay and the fires are still going. I was really getting excited, hoping for a miracle there for a while…

    • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

      Its 74F still at 11pm down here!

  • Fairweathercactus

    I am going to say that the little cold pocket on the 18Z GFS will be replaced with another ridge on the 0Z. The 0Z comes in slightly stronger with the heat.

    • weathergeek100

      You’re probably right. I’m thinking record heat and dryness for the upcoming winter because thinking in worse case scenario is always best.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Also what season is this? This looks like it could be the last week of June here in Whittier. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c15f6b6e44722b88973b3a1e2b5ab80b340bad80f1dffcb6f90c7d9ba9d6be5b.jpg

  • Palos Verdes Snowstorm

    Due to thermal belt, overnight lows here on the top of a 1200 ft hill was above 70F ! Lower elevation just few miles away had a low of 57F. Such a huge difference!

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Look for the storm door to open near the end of the first week of November

    • jstrahl

      Wishing and Hoping? Or are there some interesting signs?

      • DayHoe Herald

        We can’t buy into this forecast until Tyler and the Weather Wizard weighs in, or at least John Curtis

  • weathergeek100

    Sheesh. Talk about a heatwave. We’re looking at coastal temps approaching 100 degrees next week. Hot temps are common along the coast this time of year but 100 is really pushing it! You generally get that kind of coastal heat in September. Late October is usually past the peak of the hottest time of year (for the coast). Even here in the coastal Bay Area we’re looking at 80s.

    This is incredible. Heat wave after heat wave. All summer long, now all fall long. It has been just so warm the past year. Of course it was warm all throughout the drought but when the rains finally brought relief last year, it was more due to subtropical moisture vs GOA lows, so we went from warm dry to warm wet. I don’t know, it’s just scary. This really must be the new norm.

    • RandomTreeInSB

      Octobers can still be quite hot in parts of Socal, and near 100 isn’t too unusual especially away from the immediate coast. I’m not denying climate change but there is no reason to freak out about the lack of rain down here just yet. Especially since rainy season is still a month away.

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        Agree, it seems every October is the hottest until we look at past records and realize that October in SoCal is often quite warm. I think we start to get a little heat crazy considering that by autumn the heat isn’t going away like in so many other areas [PacificNW] and people are tired of summer. But Novembers are always much cooler and often wet. I hope we have a great rain year.

        • hermit crab

          Me too! 🙂

        • Dan the Weatherman

          We have had some Octobers in recent years that have had cooler and wetter weather with last year and 2010 being good examples, which has added more variability to recent Octobers. I remember some really hot Santa Ana winds in years past in October and early November and we do have some warm nights occasionally this time of year.

          If this anomalous heat continues past early November, then I will become very concerned about the prospects of this upcoming winter. We just need to get past this portion of the fall, as this is, after all, the heart of the warm and hot portion of Santa Ana wind season.

          • happ [Los Angeles]

            Yes October 2010 was a good month for rain and one of the coolest on record but that was a full blown La Nina. October 2015 was very wet w/ tropical moisture but it was also very hot and especially warm at night due to warm SST.

        • weathergeek100

          Yeah, I know October is normally warm. But this one is definitely warmer than normal. Not record warm (though next week could change that) but warmer than normal. 4.1 degrees above avg so far for downtown LA to be exact- http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=lox

        • RunningSprings6250

          I definitely start losing my marbles this time of year without a token mild cold front to settle the dust and make me turn the heater on.. it’s been torture lol

      • Bombillo1

        Random, our ranch is about 80 mi S of the Oregon border. One of the wettest places in Ca at 70+ inches avg annual and I would consider us and Crescent City as bell weather indicators for the entire State. We have had NO measureable rain since last May ( unlike our Tahoe sentries) While Thurs we are expecting a whalloping .62 inches, if we finish out Oct with no more than this I would say freaking out would be a reasonable choice of possible responses. Anything near normal would be in the 3 plus inch range by the end of October. We don’t get 70” here by raining 25 inches for a couple months in the dead of winter. It’s a pretty varied state and the wettest GOA L indicator places aren’t getting jack. Smells like a D from where I sit..

        • Cap’n

          Carry over part of your above “average” total from last year and throw it onto this year cause the whole state will be getting below “average” this year for sure.

          • Bombillo1

            Well let’s see, we got 140 last year, avg 70, uh it looks like zero rain this year folks.

          • Cap’n

            Bust out the sunscreen. Wow 140″ is impressive. Did you make it around 70″ the year before, the Godzilla year? The law of averages is not in our favor of another big year, perhaps average at best. My precipitation total for last year was around 100″, I’d take half that if it was colder.

          • Bombillo1

            Yes, ~73.

      • hermit crab

        I remember a lot of hot periods here in October…but not one after another before the drought years.

      • weathergeek100

        I’m not freaking out about the lack of rain as much as I am about the warmth. I know October is mostly dry. October in the Bay Area is solid above normal this year- look at any climate data for the month on the NWS. In downtown LA, it is 4.1 degrees above normal so far http://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=loxar

        I also said that we’re looking at close to 100 along the coast (not away from it) with 80s here in the bay next week. That is definitely pushing it for late October.

        • Guitar_grrrl

          The day of the Loma Prieta earthquake was in the mid 80s along the peninsula, and even where I was working at the SF VAMC. Nothing terribly unusual to me… Agreeably these recent years have been increasingly warm. No argument.

  • weathergeek100

    Bay Area: 2 weeks of fire weather, followed by 5 mins of drizzle (or nothing) on Thursday night, followed by another week of fire weather. Ughh.

    • osc3_el cerrito

      I’ll never take clean air for granted again. Bay Area air quality is as bad as Beijing.

  • weathergeek100

    There’s a ‘slight chance’ of ‘sprinkles’ for the central coast tonight. Might as well word it as ‘very slight chance of a drop of rain to possibly two drops of rain’. Chance of rain: 0.001%.

  • Dogwood

    Historically the probability of rain on any given day in the Bay Area begins to climb safely above zero on October 15.
    We’re but 2 full days past this “threshold”.
    I see no reason for malaise to set in. Fall ridge or not.

    • jstrahl

      No reason, aside from the fact that this is the Weather West forum, right? 🙂

      • osc3_el cerrito

        Good point!

    • AntiochWx

      1. La Nina
      2. East based QBO
      3. Mean north Pac Jetstream further north than average (symptoms of La Nina + aided by certain % further north with the expansion of Hadley Cell as AGW advances)
      4. Traditionally, a few years after strong to very strong warm ENSO, precipitation tends to be slightly below average to below average.

      Plus other small tidbits to cause the maliaise with regards to average or above average precipitation hopes. Honestly I’m not much of a weather weenie, I just call it as I see it. Still always hope for the better outcome, but the scientist in me keeps those feelings in check. The deck is stack against us this year, so it is hard to get super excited.

      • I’m a weenie when it comes to rain. I feel better in my head. It’s like a drug.

        • AntiochWx

          Don’t get me wrong, it’s fun to be a weenie, always wishcasting for rain in my head, but I try my best to check my feelings at the door so my forecasting on the weather technical aspects doesn’t suffer.

    • Yes!
      Hysteria, panic, overreaction, fear. Just think back to the 2013 calendar year. 2013-15 precipitation seasons. The RRR. The Blob. Extrapolate 2013 calendar year for precipitation and I’m back to Xerophobe. 🙂

  • happ [Los Angeles]
  • AntiochWx

    Upcoming pattern changes are quite impressive. First we get a near 2STD trough followed by a near 2STD ridge.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Coldest low of the last 4-5 months at 46F and along with it the marine layer is back and very deep!

  • Cap’n
    • Bombillo1

      As we were talking last night, action in Crescent City is an important precursor for action further South. No one expects any rain in SLO at this time of year but CC not getting something in Oct is a big deal.

    • alanstorm

      What happens at Pelican Bay will eventually happen further south. ..

      • Cap’n

        Yeah I posted it because I read here on the blog last night that nada was happening in this area.

      • Tuolumne

        You mean what happens there doesn’t stay there?

  • Bob G (Gustine)
    • Fairweathercactus

      So Cold

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        Pretty rapid cool down east of Hawaii when you compare where it was just a couple of weeks ago

        • Pfirman

          Globally though, a ton of red.

          • Bob G (Gustine)

            Some deep red areas, I was focused on the Eastern Pacific. Interesting to see what kind of effect this has on DJF weather depending on ultimately SSTs hold up

          • Pfirman

            I was only commenting on the global aspect. I agree with your perspective.

    • CHeden

      IMHO, my guess is the SSTA’s southwest of California are reflecting the persistent NNE/SSW surface flow/troughiness we’ve been seeing over California for what seems like forever (well, most of the Summer at least). Near the Socal coast and down through Baja, there is zip for upwelling… plus there’s katabatic warming of outflowing continental air… hence SSTA’s are locally warming. However, further out in the Pacific, this same NE flow has been bringing periodic pulses of “relatively” cooler air deep into the sub-tropics where SSTA’s are lower than usual. To me, it appears the blue patch west of California is tracing out the areal coverage of these troughs that have indeed been extending almost down to the ITCZ.

  • Bombillo1

    Bogotá at 6:30 AM today. Always a verdant green, year round with no “rainy” season. At 8,660’ it has an average daytime high of 62 degrees but receives only 32.5 inches of rain per annum, less than Redding for god’s sake. A great visualization of why 90 and 100 degree temperatures and NO rain for months on end is so deleterious. It is not for the simple lack of rain that we suffer.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/33f0f9834180787b9023e3b3a6b2b2ba007d8b62e70af4da700638c0cdb8f3a2.jpg

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      What are you doing in Colombia!? My wife’s family is from there, and I lived there for a few years as a kid, Cali, Colombia too.

      Si, hablo Espanol! Cha Cha Cha

      • Cap’n

        Every time I watch Narcos I want to get out of my mind on coke.

        • Bombillo1

          Cap’n, you got to change the channel man.

          • Cap’n

            Haha, Netflix is fodder for major “checking out” of real life for chunks of time. I hope I didn’t offend with a stupid comment; I know that Columbia is a beautiful place and has much more to offer. Hey, I Minored in Spanish! My dream is to make it to both Ecuador and Peru someday, for that matter I’d like to visit the vast majority of that majestic other America.

      • Bombillo1

        Mi esposa esta hospalizado aqui en Bogotá. Visitando su mama hace 12 Dias y luego contracto un enfermidad. Ella es Colombiana y yo gringo. Vamos a ver lo que pasa. Todavilla no hay diagnosis.

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          OH MAN! Sorry to hear about that. My best wishes to you and your wife Bombillo. Prayers for her complete recovery!

          • Bombillo1

            Thanks Jason, she’s better today. 8:00 AM Bogotá.

    • weathergeek100

      Wow, that area looks awfully clean and well kept for Colombia. I could mistake that for a western suburb.

  • matt
  • CHeden

    Redding now at 45F, up from 43F an hour ago. Coldest morning of the year so far.
    Hazy, pre-frontal-like skies with scattered Cirrus aloft and zero winds at the surface. DP’s though, are basically unchanged from what we’ve been seeing in the lo 30’s.
    Looks like the dry air in the north Valley proper is going to be sufficiently dry to soak up any precip that makes it over the Coast Range later tomorrow. However, the hills will see something, as well as points closer to the coast where higher humidities will be present.
    Will be keeping a close eye on the track of the parent low up north, as well as how fast the front pushes through tomorrow. From this info, we should be able to get a better idea of how long next week’s heat wave will last, and when the next trough is due to approach the NEPac.
    Keep in mind that in a progressive flow, an amplified ridge is often a sign of a deeper trough further west pumping up the ridge out ahead of it.
    ATTM, I’m hoping this scenario plays out later next week.
    Here’s the M.R. GFS showing an extremely deep low (938mb) in the far NE GoA.
    While in itself, the low will be too far north to be felt by us in California, it will set up a strengthened SPJ riding underneath the low which should displace the H.P. ridge east, with several possible episodes of cyclogenesis taking place off the NW coast. Hopefully one (or more) of these lows will track nearer NorCal than currently suggested. We’ll see. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5134456b0baa6d4ae437cb569354aff39ef45493f506f73ef4501d696aaa3c9e.png

    • Good analysis. FWIW the MJO is forecast to blitz through half the wheel (5 through 8) by end of month then spend most of November in phase space 1-3.

      • CHeden

        Good point! Something else to look for (assuming it holds together and doesn’t peeter out). Plus, we need to monitor if the phasing is constructive or destructive to the general Pacific flow pattern. Could go either way based on what I’m seeing.

        • Yup, depends maybe on how much the base state is teleconnected. As you know Nina and Nino have opposite interference.

          • CHeden

            Correct.
            What I am on the fence on is the current trend in equatorial SST’s…and whether our “La Nina” is starting to wane (similar date as last year). In this week’s ENSO update from the CPC, there is some evidence in several data that would seem to indicate just that….most notably a sudden and significant warming in the last week in 1.2 and a consistently flat -0.5 anomaly in 3.4. There is also a reduction in 0-300m Pacific heat content (which looks like it peaked in late Sept.), and that the turnaround and now upwards slope of SST change is quite similar to last year, which if extrapolated to this year, would suggest SST’s should be now moving to more “neutral” readings.
            http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

          • Pfirman

            That last sentence sent my brain into a Rossby wave. Could you please describe and enumerate the other kinds of interference as opposed to opposite?

          • There can be constructive interference , destructive interference and none of the above. LaNina and ElNino teleconnect differently with the atmosphere. An MJO phase can be constructive interference if the base state (+/- or neutral ENSO) is El Nino. It can be destructive interference when same phase in MJO is in a LaNina or -ENSO. So whats constructive in an ElNino can be destructive in LaNina.

          • Pfirman

            Ok, thanks, I understand. Kind of like family dynamics.

  • AlTahoe

    The last weeks worth of GFS runs have consistently been showing some very impressive GOA lows. These have been missing pretty much since the 2010-2011 winter and to me is a return to a more normal looking winter pattern. I don’t know what this means for our winter precip wise, but it makes me feel better when I look at satellite loops 🙂

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Come on Al, you know the game here we have to be negative and complain about the lack of weather. We need your stories about ridding your bike in Feb on trails that should be covered in snow!

      • AlTahoe

        God you just gave me flashbacks to Jan 2015 when I was mountain biking in 66F weather and swam in the lake. Never again!

        • matthew

          I was rode biking in Jan/Feb 2015 wearing shorts, summer gloves and a short sleeve shirt. As you said, I hope that we do not see that again.

        • Cap’n

          Year round mountain biking below 7K is the way of the future. Mammoth buying Bear Mountain was paving the way for that exact thing.

          • inclinejj

            The last guy who said stuff like that ended up in the San Jose ‘donut hole’

            Wait till the Sierra’s has a really really cold winter!

          • Cap’n

            Bring it on. It will still be followed by 8 warm ones.

          • Yeah it’s like this guy doesn’t know that’s what we’ve been begging for for years. I’m okay with less than average if it means I don’t have to surf slurpee

        • Hell he reminded me that if not you maybe quags or capn saw someone nude sunbathing on the beach, in January ’15.

    • It seems like we might be getting back to normal climate change. :))

    • shampeon

      What I’ve learned from comments here.

      1. Wet autumns are bad because that means the winter will be bone dry.
      2. Dry autumns are bad because that means the winter will be bone dry.
      3. Nobody knows, or at least comments, about neutral autumns.
      4. Southern Californians are shocked and angry that they live in a warm and mostly rain-free climate.

      • matthew

        5) It will be a warm, dry, mega-drought year….until it starts raining. Then you will need kayaks to get your groceries home.

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          And we’ll in the dark for months, freaking because we no longer have the three C’s.

          Comfort
          Convenience
          Connectivity

          And then, the President will fly over and say we deserve it.

          • Pfirman

            That dude does not know the difference between a meteorologist and a meaty urologist.

          • alanstorm

            Hahaha Pfirman!

          • AntiochWx

            but but but my IQ tho…

      • Cap’n

        Post of the day?

        • Dogwood

          Post of the month probably.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        You left out “All storms must be declared a Bust by somebody within the first few hours of coming ashore”.

        This may actually be a forum rule. It might even be mentioned in the FAQ’s somewhere.

        • AllHailPresidentCheetoJesus

          It’s my favorite rule… 😛

        • Tuolumne

          This winter is already a bust.

  • I wonder if we’ll break another “all-time ever in recorded history event”? It’s only been two years. Why not? This is a year for hysteria and panic. Please excuse (or don’t) my sarcasm.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c9f9751ab1b2de8a5214f0a5b395e904e0e472b98f198c8e2d4c450e25294ac2.gif

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      October 2015 was during the Godzilla Kayak Super El Niño.

      • CHeden

        Base State change??
        ENSO be damned.

        • jstrahl

          Exactly.

    • AlTahoe

      The first half of Oct has been among the record coldest so far for the pacific Northwest. Lots of places set new records for early season low temps

      • I know. 🙂 The hysteria and panic regarding late October here. Maybe we’ll have an “all-time ever in recorded history event” for last week of October. LOL I need to chill. I know I’m pissing people off today

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        PacificNW have enjoyed even low elevation snowfall around Seattle and freezing nights in both Wash/ Oregon.

        • Pfirman

          Wait, already this winter? I know they had powder at sea level in Seattle last winter.

          • happ [Los Angeles]

            In the lower foothills of Cascades [North Bend/ Snoqualmie pass] received several inches. Montana got dumped on!

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Here in SM, the highs averaged in the low 80s in Octobers 2014 and 2015. Our supposed average were in the mid-70s. Bad omen for winter?

    • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

      If we get to monthly max temps I’ll be impressed… LA would have to get to 113 and 109 here.

    • AntiochWx

      I’m pretty sure we will fall short of record October temps.

  • Records look to fall next week, forecast max temps keep going up. While Socal temp swings are normal, we are looking at records and probably an overall record warm October.

    “Monday and
    Tuesday will likely be the warmest days of the period when
    offshore flow teams up the ridge axis aloft to warm the air mass
    additionally. Temperatures have been nudged higher across the area
    for Monday and Tuesday with values about 3-5 degrees above MOS
    guidance for Monday and Tuesday. Record heat is forecast for
    Monday and Tuesday as even MOS guidance values are near or above
    record levels for Monday and Tuesday. “

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Won’t be surprised if next week’s heat wave extends to next Friday. Seems like same song and dance every October: longer heat waves, less cooler days.

  • inclinejj

    Pacifica 9:57 am 54.1 degrees 92 percent humidity and barometer at 29.87 winds calm. As mentioned below a very deep marine layer this am.

    Forgot to mention low this a. 46.1 degrees.

    • Henry

      Not sure the marine layer is that deep. This morning the top of the cloud deck was below my house (Santa Cruz Mountains), probably no higher than 1000 feet.

      • inclinejj

        We are about 60 miles or so apart. Pacifica to the Santa Cruz Mountains depending on where you are.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      40’s that close to the coast is unusual in October, right?

      • inclinejj

        Fog in October is sort of unusual but mid 40’s is a bit too chilly for mid October.

  • Thunderstorm

    This may be a year where the MJO has a major influence on how much precipitation California receives. Certainly enhanced the rainfall at times last year! Currently in phase 5. When it gets to phase 7 the forecast should turn wet finally!! Potus really stepped in a big one today, terrible smell.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      How long till phase 7?

      • AntiochWx

        Give or take 8-10 days. I’m actually liking the fact the ridge relocates just to the NW of Hawaii and GOA low settling in. I’m thinking our first state wide precip begins around Nov 1-6th.

    • Pfirman

      Back to the old proverbial butterfly flapping its wings in Beijing.

    • alanstorm

      So it’s plausible to say high amplitude quasi-stationary Rossby waves gave birth to the RRR?
      Also: depending on which part of the wave one resides, can the same phenomenon give rise to a Terribly Tenacious Trough? (extreme rains/floods)
      Also: could this have been in play during the infamously amplified 1861-62 Megafloods?
      Also: has this been contributing to the “loopy weak meandering North-South flowing JET I’m always uniformly yammering on & on about during the RRR’s rein of terror?
      …sorry for so many alsos

      • AntiochWx

        I hope the TTT catches on, hopefully we can get one of those soon!

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Clearly next week’s ridge will increase positive departures above normal values. The last cool October was 2010 w/ minus 4 departure. Last October was near average max/ min [80.6F/ 61.8] but both 2014 & 2015 were extremely hot: 5+ above average. Average Oct minimum in 2015 was 67.1 [record warmth] that could be matched again this year. 2015 El Nino conditions included 2.01 of rainfall in Sept w/ 0.47 in October from tropical origin. Rain year by the end of October was over 3″. But, as I painfully recall annual rainfall was a mere 10.98 [jul-jun].

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Found this interesting, break down of out of state and out of country resources currently in California-
    Arizona 8 Strike teams
    Oregon 15 Strike Teams
    Washington 10 Strike Teams
    Nevada 1 Strike Teams
    Idaho 1 Strike Teams
    Utah 4 Strike Teams
    New Mexico 1 Strike Teams
    Colorado 4 Strike Teams
    Australian Resources: 32 Australians will be arriving on Wednesday
    October 18th from Victoria, Australia, 12 leadership positions DIVS, Taskforce Leaders and 20 person handcrew

    • Pfirman

      If I recall from the Berkeley Fire Dept. video they had five engines, one of which was a pumper, and said that qualified them as a strike team.
      So even one strike team is a big deal it seems.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        You’re correct a strike team is made up of 5 engines, 1 leader (usually a BC) and sometimes a strike team leader trainee.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Our neighboring states helping us. Cool that Australia is involved. Didn’t California send teams to Texas hurricane region?

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        Yes, Cal OES sent teams to all the hurricane areas.
        There was an article in one of the papers about an Oakland BC who had been sent all over and returned from Puerto Rico after two weeks to only fight the fire in his Glen Ellen backyard (he was off when the fire broke out). He also is a volunteer Glen Ellen FF and heard the call for FFs over his radio when he was asleep at home..then heard it was at his backyard. Spent 4+ days fighting it in his backyard with a tractor (that died), shovels, rakes, and a pump to get water.

        I believe Cal Fire has a recipical program with Australian fire brigades to send resources there during the CA winter when needed.

    • alanstorm

      I saw a Santa Barbara fire official pickup truck driving around Willits yesterday

  • Cap’n

    A little snow porn from high up in Washington while we await our next heatwave:

    http://f1.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=46.8529&lon=-121.7604#.Weed9FtSyCg

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay
      • Cap’n

        You beat me I was just about to post the link! I was noticing the same uptick for the little system tomorrow night, might need to cover my wood before hitting the sack after all.

      • jstrahl

        Hope he’s right. Strange re the map for precipitation ’95-6, ’05-6, ’08-9 vs normal, as all three of those came in above to well above normal in Berkeley, not captured well by the map.

    • weathergeek100

      Wow. I’m looking forward to some Mt Shasta snow porn eventually. I loved your ‘meanwhile, at mt Shasta…’ posts last season.

  • inclinejj

    From Paul at Huntington at Tahoe Weather Blog

    Fall/Winter 2017-2018 Update – Walker Circulation Strengthens Suggesting Wet Cold Start and Drier Late Winter
    Posted: 14 Oct 2017 08:47 AM PDT
    By Paul Huntington

    I just wanted to highlight some recent atmospheric and oceanic observations that point toward a “possible” drier than average Winter for Central California with cooler northern storms (Inside Sliders) rotating down from the Aleutian Islands and less atmospheric rivers than last year, however the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)–that has been fairly quiet and inactive recently- is showing signs of waking back up along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in proximity of the Maritime/Indonesia region or West Pacific along with the upwelling directly off Peru (localized El Nino) slowing down allowing warm sea surface temperatures to establish within the far eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Meaning things could change late Fall into Winter and recently our wind patterns/oceans have been showing tendencies toward strong variability in the strengths of El Nino indices- and even going from medium strength La Nina to very strong localized coastal El Nino off South America-throughout a single Fall Winter Spring season.

    The major observation globally along the equatorial region I’m watching is the strengthening of the Walker Circulation. This circulation or oscillation is basically what an El Nino and La Nina are with the catchy term “El Nino”- that some Peruvian fisherman voiced- winning out over the Walker Circulation, however we should start to all become familiar with the great scientist who discovered it by the name of Gilbert Walker. Walker studied the see saw of atmospheric pressure in numerous climate sites in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins along with primarily targeting sites where the region experienced either permanent or seasonal high and low pressures. Walker also broke the spatial analysis up into four groups that represented the seasons with Winter being December-February, Spring March-May and so on. He was able to conclude that oceanic sea surface temperatures had a direct effect on the atmospheric pressure thus the differing sides of the equatorial ocean basins were showing relevant differences in pressure/rainfall. How these warm and cool ocean waters shifted from one side of the ocean basin to the other was influencing the atmospheric pressure, and thermocline depth. Furthermore the difference of these pressures gradients and ocean temperatures was being influenced by the strength of the Trade Winds or Easterlies and his analysis showed that the stronger phase of the Walker Circulation supported La Nina or the pooling of warmer ocean surface waters in the West Pacific and West Atlantic basins and cooler water in the West Indian Ocean (positive phase Indian Ocean Dipole). Whereas, the weak phase is supportive of El Nino with anomalously warmer water in the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic equatorial regions and either Dipole phase of the Indian Ocean (e.g. El Nino of 1997 IOD was in positive and 2015 El Nino was more negative). Recently the Walker cell has strengthened more than I have seen maybe since the late 1990’s during the 1998 Fall and is indicative of the La Nina Pattern and this appears to be real similar to what happened in 1984-1985 after the very strong El Nino of 1982-1983 that was followed with a very weak La Nina or neutral El Nino indices in 1983-1984 similar to Winter of 2016-2017. This is not what generally occurs after a very strong El Nino but is something that Climatologist and Meteorologists are studying to see if this pattern of strong La Nina’s following strong El Nino’s is a consistent trend or only happens every so often like the 1997-1999 period that was a text book cycle of El Nino/La Nina cycle.

    http://www.tahoeweatherblog.com/

  • Cap’n

    Malibu is looking fun, and only 568 people out. Alright I need to get some work done, I’ve already been kicked off an MLB forum, have a good day everyone.

    http://www.surfline.com/video/surfline-live/live-from-malibu-california_149888

    • gray whale

      ha! i was just watching that.

      seeing all the people stacked up helps me not have surf envy here in placerville. slater’s wave park on the other hand….

      • Pfirman

        Ha, even Woodpile has a wave park.

    • Jim (Watsonville)

      Looks like the typical sized crowd at Steamers Lane in Santa Cruz ~~~

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      And 400 of them can’t even surf overhead Malibu. They sit on the shoulder and snake…

      I wish kooks would just go to beach breaks and learn to paddle and use line-up etiquette…surfing is dead!

      • Cap’n

        I used to fantasize about owning a time machine and going back in time to surf spots like Rincon, Lowers, Malibu etc. with no one out. I didn’t do the Malibu thing much but when I did, good God what a show. Did score it once night surfing a couple feet overhead with about 20 people out; got three peelers but honestly I’m a wimp that dark water scared me. My ultimate decision to move from the coast and leave the ocean was heavily influenced by crowd factors. I basically quit surfing, especially my last 10 years in south LA county chasing dumpy wind swell with the Brohem crews.

        • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

          I hear you Cap’n…I usually just surf fickle spots that need a certain swell angle along the SB/VTA coast in the winter…I’m completely over the ego festivities that permeate the ocean at the popular breaks.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    I like the idea of progressive troughs digging deeper into California similar to what PacificNW is experiencing. Photo outside North Bend/ Snoqualmie [east of Seattle] of low elevation snow earlier this month. Its coming our way!

    Courtesy Tim/ Weather Forums
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c674cfa7701047e0454aee094d51cd5276320d0dcbd3c9d1fc7e719f98decf6b.jpg

  • AntiochWx

    Just looking at readings over the last few days, you can tell there is an approaching system nearby. Eventhough it is sunny, dew points have steadily increased the last few days, and surface pressures have decreased.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    By far the most dense fog of the year here on October 18, visibiities were down to less than half a mile at times between 8-9:30 AM. Was there any dense fog advisories?

    • inclinejj

      Temps have dropped to 55.2 fog came in fast. Burned off for a couple hours but temp on rose to 62.1.

  • AntiochWx

    Once the ridge breaks down around day 10, I expect things to get interesting. Ridge should redevop to the NW of Hawaii as the GOA low takes over. Could be some nice rain chances around Oct 31-Nov 6th. Maybe phase 7 MJO has something to do about that, I want to do more research. Plus recurving typhoon energy.

  • SoCalWXwatcher
    • AntiochWx

      I have recently requested to have a new map view of the arctic circle. I really want to get a better polar view to see how the rossby wave number looks. I trust Dr. Maue will be adding a lot of things, he is a huge weather community asset when it comes to maps.

      • There is an arctic circle view from 90 to 60N

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          And a North Pacific view is a MUST. 😉

        • AntiochWx

          I don’t think there is an arctic circle view on ryan maue’s euro suite. Closest is North American view. I like his graphics the most because he includes anomalies in his 500hPa graphics. They are more aethetically pleasing.

          http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            It’s weird that the NW US and SW US view buttons aren’t on that page. They exist, but I find I always have to go hunting through the site to find them. I had them bookmarked, then they moved.

            They’ll eventually get things sorted out.

          • AntiochWx

            They will sort it out I’m sure, I’m sure Ryan Maue is very busy right now building up that site after leaving weatherbell.

    • matthew

      Woo Hoo – a half inch for me! I am not being facetious. After this last week of firestorms I have spent a good chunk of today working on defensible space ahead of this next round of heat. A half inch of rain would ease my concerns quite a bit.

      • Pfirman

        And lower back?

        • matthew

          Hands. A couple dozen piles of freshly raked pine needles (aka solid gasoline) ready to be bagged. Or maybe left in the yard until spring if they get wet enough.

  • Taz & Storm Master
    • SoCalWXwatcher

      This next storm tomorrow/Friday even looked much more promising than that 10 days out. That would be a nice way to start November, but…

      • Taz & Storm Master

        yes this storm for tomorrow looks much better

      • Cap’n

        Tomorrow’s little system ain’t looking too shabby now, though a quick hitter.

        • Charlie B

          Reno NWS did bump things up a bit to where they had been bumped down from a few cycles ago. I anxiously await a candid NWS discussion that reads: “In the long range, we really don’t know, now do we?”

          • Pfirman

            Anxiety is not your friend.

    • Cap’n

      The pink flamingo?

    • Jim (Watsonville)

      Remember, we are talking about the GFS here…the meteorologist I storm chase with calls it the “Goofus” model…he says it’s for a reason !!! That’s a long ways out…lets hope it sticks

      • alanstorm

        Yes, but did you storm chase with someone with the name “Storm Master”?

        • Jim (Watsonville)

          Good point…

    • Freddy66

      Hey so cal might be out of the 80s and 90s.

      • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

        Wouldn’t that be nice!

      • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

        I was happy to get out of the low 100’s yesterday and today’s high was a “cool” 91.

    • jstrahl

      A fantasy way out in Fantasyland.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        Matches up to what BA post d in his update today. Hopefully we see fall cooling off and winter coming to say hi.

      • Beth_ElDoradoHills

        A scary hint at the possibillities of unknown models to show weather WE simply cannot predict!

      • alanstorm

        Yes, but tomorrow night’s fantasy was fantasized 2
        weeks ago & appears to be right on track as predicted.
        Put me down as a Fanatic Fantasy Fantasizer. (FFF)

        • Thunderstorm

          I will double down on that because the MJO is now in phase 5 and way away from the circle of death. Believe this may be a major event with warnings included.

          • Pfirman

            Nota bene.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          Two weeks ago it had us down here in SoCal getting close to 1/2″ rain from tomorrow’s storm.

          I’ll be interested to see how later runs handle that early November storm. Hopefully it doesn’t end up being a slider (which would be the more typical outcome this time of year). Hopefully it results in more wetting rains for the Northern half of the state.

          • alanstorm

            It did briefly, but quickly realised it’s foolishness & wiped it from the boards!
            SoCal is where the off-then-on forecasts have been the last few years.
            It’s a no-brainer up here, GFS was pretty accurate last winter with storm dates 10 days out the further north you go.
            The big ones in Jan that caused all the flooding were on target for precip totals & arrival dates as I recall.
            How far down the fronts slide, if & where they stall out at seem to be adjusted last minute

  • Charlie B

    This is from a couple of days ago. It was taken on Fox Island or near Tacoma. Mount Rainier was stunning. 48 hours later it is getting pounded by rain and snow. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/df16f9bf839a01d3f5447e5cb31d1533623fbbc8b5273090865b6402f468d12a.jpg

    • Pfirman

      I share the love.

  • honzik

    I was just noticing something on the NOAA WV loop. The cutoff low, which has been stuck at 145W 25N for a while now, has suddenly started to pull up more moisture from the subtropical jet and pull down moisture from the main jet. Looks like they two may even meet. Does this mean more rain than expected?

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html

    • Nathan

      The last few runs have definitely infused the energy hitting the Tahoe region with a few extra slurps of moisture for tomorrow’s storm as compared with previously. So…maybe?

    • Cap’n

      GFS was showing that days ago, everyone was excited, then it backed off, everyone was sad, now it’s back on, everyone is happy. We should usually just wait to see how it plays out probably the way to go and stay sane but fretting will be in full force always.

      • CHeden

        Yup.

      • RunningSprings6250

        All I do now is check the 384hr precip total once a day. I can totally pick up on trends or outliers etc without getting attached to any one event/idea.

        Trends, it’s all about trends…the rest is all just horseshit until it slaps you in the face.

        • Pfirman

          No trend predicted the slap of upstate fires. Oh, wait, chaos does not have a trend.

      • Nate

        Welcome to Weather West–Life at 6hr Intervals

      • DayHoe Herald

        What’s the OCD fun in that? Looking forward to doing a Judah hike on Friday in blustery weather.

        • Cap’n

          Yodel from the top I’ll hear you! Maybe you’ll be hiking in a few inches of snow.

          • Pfirman

            OCD? Maybe he will be figuring our if anal-something has a hyphen.

          • DayHoe Herald

            Will do — and as Pfirmin says, first inch is the best inch — should be be a beautiful blustery from up on high

  • Taz & Storm Master

    i may see 1″ of rain from this event wish would my 1st 1″ of rain of the season

    • RunningSprings6250

      We can tell you’re getting excited.

      • Pfirman

        The first inch is the best inch.

        • GR

          That’s what . . . . never mind.

          • Pfirman

            Thank you.

  • CHeden

    The GFS is hanging in there with a major 939mb low bombing in the NNE GoA around the 26/27th, with a SPJ trying to break through underneath. Not much point in guessing past this point. Just too much chaos after the low pulls up. I suspect that the atmosphere is going to get rather roiled up… even if the low doesn’t fully bomb as portrayed…so who knows where the jet is going to settle after that? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b3b55735475b20f2c292c7a405c81a65656836f204986404b30b77add855a58a.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b4408da90adc43e73bca475c54a3871b2712523a5de7d819a8c0d016b322f28a.png

    • AntiochWx

      This view is great, can’t wait until Ryan Maue has this in his Euro graphics.

    • PRCountyNative

      Surf!!

    • Pfirman

      Heh, you said ‘chaos’. Climate that would be?

    • GR

      It looks like something you cure with penicillin.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      Does SPJ stand for Southern Polar Jet?

  • Upcoming heatwave will likely bring record breaking heat to Southern CA, including the latest (in the calendar year) 100+ degree days ever observed in Los Angeles. I’ll have a new blog post by the weekend.

    • RunningSprings6250

      Thanks but I’ll pass.

      LOL!!

    • alanstorm

      What about WINDS??

      • Pfirman

        RELAX! You’re upstate.

        • alanstorm

          U reLAX

      • Dan the Weatherman

        It appears there will be some Santa Ana winds, but they aren’t expected to be too strong at this time. It is the combination of the anomalously strong upper high with the fairly weak offshore flow that is going to cause the intense heat. This sounds more like an April or September pattern in which weak offshore flow combines with a strong high aloft creating heatwave conditions, only that the offshore flow will be stronger than it would be in September.

        I REALLY hope this is the last heatwave of the season! I’m ready for cooler fall weather instead of this “pseudo-summer” weather.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    un less some in happens too where it flips too vary stormy like it did back in JAN last year with all the warm AR storms i think this year we could see vary low snow and lots of low land snow this time around

    • Jim (Watsonville)

      Is that just a hunch ?

      • Taz & Storm Master

        Maybe we’ll find out soon enough.

    • weathergeek100

      What makes you come to that conclusion?

  • AntiochWx

    Today was cooler than forecast for the east bay, especially this morning. HRRR was closer than the GFS and NAM though. L 44 H80 vs. HRR L 47 H83.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    The so called “Heat Wave” doesn’t look bad here at all, might as well call it quick one day warmup. The cool temperatures are definetly winning the fight in October

    • Eddie Garcia

      yeah this October has been actually below normal for most of the time… I think the southern coastal areas and the LA area have seen warmer than average temps and they will feel this heat wave coming that’s for sure.

    • weathergeek100

      Where you at? I’m in the Bay Area and it doesn’t look so bad for us. But down south, the 101 degree degrees forecasted for downtown LA next Monday and Tuesday is definitely out of the norm. It is not normal to have triple heat that late in October. This is going to be a record heat wave if it happens.

      • redlands

        the latest Redlands, Ca – Southern Ca has hit 100 or above is Oct-25 — looks like that record maybe tie or broken

        • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

          You at all affiliated with UoR?

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        SC/RWC

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      I don’t know about you, but I’m expecting about 4-5 days of 85-95 degrees in Santa Maria over the weekend/next week. Not fun. Mountain areas could see a period of red flag warning.

  • Eddie Garcia

    if I don’t see rain this storm that’s coming tomorrow this would be the first October in 13 years with no measurable rainfall. Com’on Mother Nature give me at least a 1/10 of an inch so we don’t break this streak.

    • AntiochWx

      you mean 1/100 of an inch 🙂

      • Eddie Garcia

        lol or that 0.1 or 0.01

        • AntiochWx

          Yeah, I only said that because technically .01 is measurable and would break your streak. Hope you get some!

    • Cap’n

      You just jinxed it, nada for tomorrow, but I’d like to take that future vision down to Boomtown to see if I could double my rent money.

  • Cap’n

    Some bizarre wind patterns observed in Chicago from Utley and Granderson pathetically fanning through everything.

  • Boiio

    Incredible story in the SF Chronicle. The Tubbs fire created fire swirls powerful enough to flip cars in Santa Rosa!

    http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Tubbs-Fire-unleashed-fiery-tornadoes-that-12289228.php#photo-14327530

    • alanstorm

      “Powerful winds also drove the Hanley Fire, which burned almost the exact same area in 1964……leveled 84 homes”

      Apparently, the mouth of that canyon that goes up Mark West Rd seems to be the prime Venturi effect spot, making Larkfield/Wikiup, then ultimately Coffee Park vulnerable spots for these kind of firestorms.

      • Henry

        Considering that there had been a major fire in that area before, it is surprising that many areas of Santa Rosa that burned recently were not classified as wildfire hazard zones.

  • AntiochWx

    The persistent ridging north of Hawaii in the 0z runs is being a real thorn in the side, its not allowing the GOA lows to dig. Putrid.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Just my two cents: I’m really peeved to see KCOY weather peeps displaying “more like mid-August than mid-October”. As if the Central Coast doesn’t see normal temps in the 80s and 90s as frequent as the inland valleys do in August.

    • Chris

      Yeah. You are more likely to see prolonged heat in the 80s and 90s in October vs August by a long shot.
      Apparently, the writer is not from this blog and if he/she is, he/she should be forever banned ?

      • Last year we were in deep, thoughtful discussion dividing up Central CA climate division #6.

  • AntiochWx

    The more I look at the Euro’s 0z run, it does appear like in the long range, some split flow may develop, undercutting the ridge. Something to keep an eye on.

  • Bombillo1

    Momentous day today. The first rain of of the new rain season. WU calling for .82. Big Bend Ca., starting around 6:00 PM. The dust is a foot deep.

    • DayHoe Herald

      We’ll get a spattering in Yolo — just enough to create Swiss cheese with our annual dust accumulation — but I’m not complaining as have to start somewhere — hopefully the much anticipated early November pattern shift will finally clean things up and trigger the germination required for our return to the green, green grass of home once again

  • DayHoe Herald

    Woke up to smell of smoke at 02:45 wondering what was going on — then realized the pattern change had probably arrived and blown some through Yolo from the fire zones — sure enough, I see the welcome signs of a Winter storm with winds from the SSE and pressure down to 29.88 — hallelujah — currently 51F in far southwest Davis at 06:25

    • alanstorm

      Ironically, had to build a fire last night cause it was cold, smelled smoke & got nervous for a second.
      Let’s hurry up & wet things down, if only for a day

  • tomocean
  • AlTahoe

    The bears are still out and about in my neighborhood. Saw this one this morning https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d938458f97e412d72a86290cd41dba942dece234bab005f2f182be2c3dd9d7ec.jpg

  • V-Ville
    • DayHoe Herald

      I think that’s what came our way last night with the shift in wind direction — sorry you guys have been living with that for awhile now

  • John

    Don’t know what it’s like further north in the Bay Area, but the feel of moisture in the air and on my skin this morning, and low marine layer here in Orinda bodes well. I have mixed feelings about lots of rain this year because our back yard slipped a bit last winter and I want it to stay there, but I’ll take this healthy sign for sure right now.

    • Henry

      It is cloudy this morning in the mountains above Los Gatos slightly above 1000 feet. I can hear helicopters, most likely en route to the Bear Fire.

    • Last night driving on 24 it was so marine layer moist I had to use full power on the windshield wipers, fat droplets hung heavy in the sky.

    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      Yes we had nice low clouds and fog downtown this morning, as well as some drizzle. The air is much cleaner and moist again. ahhhh. Im hoping we get 0.25 from this, the hi side fcst for the coastal hills outside the norht bay.

    • Good to get that one figured out. Is it possible to get a 3D representation of the Coffey area fire like we’ve seen with tornadoes and hurricanes?

    • Jim (Watsonville)

      I heard of at least one overturned car that was thought to have been tossed by the fire only to find out it had been involved in a traffic collision attempting to escape. There was a story from a eyewitness who helped a handicap person from their home and took refuge in a park, that actually watched the car fly through the air….thats some pretty dramatic winds.

  • CHeden

    This morning’s WV is telling a very interesting story.
    Stationary High Pressure remains locked in place over the NCent Pacific, with associated lows on the SW and SE flanks creating what appears to be an Omega block. Note that the eastern flank of the high has now retreated to around -150W with a brisk, long-fetch NW flow coming “over the top” before entering into a digging trough with a parent low now off the BC coast. The cyclonic flow around this low has an “outward” bend on it’s digging (SE) flank, which is indicating the trough is advancing ESE and displacing the old western continental ridge south and east.
    In addition, it appears a southern branch of the jet (El Nino-ish???) is setting up well south of 20N before getting first lifted into the block then ejecting to the ENE around 34N. ATTM, the southern jet east of -140W appears to be tracking anti-cyclonically (warm front-ish) along the northern flank of a broad area of HP that extends well into the ITCZ, and increasing moisture and humidity should be entering SoCal in the form of mostly high cloudiness shortly.
    As the continental western ridge continues to erode (now mostly south of Pt. Conception), the storm door will continue to open and allow some decent forcing off the Pacific to make it to the west coast. As long as the Cent Pacific block remains anchored…which could be several days, there will be a chance of on/off rain (NorCal), with an outside chance of some minor cyclogenesis off the coast sometime over the weekend, which in turn just may be enough to spark off some convective showers. Not holding my breath, but I do see some chance of some locally heavier cells to develop in the post-frontal airmass, as there are some open-cell Cu associated with the GoA low’s core around 45N off the coast of Oregon.
    One of the wild cards (as others have noted), is how much moisture the block’s SE (leading edge) LP system pumps north…and where it goes. The models have been having a horrible time trying to anticipate where and when this moisture will track. Within the next few hours we should know if/how much moisture will be riding up from SW, and if it gets entrained into the NE Pac trough, and if so, where the position of the trough will be relative to the coast.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/62d1c6ab4f7babeec2d34d773269140b9d41603e7d4f0a902f8305ae620bd6a5.jpg

    • Good discussion. Is it too early to poke around and see which world model has a better handle on long to medium to short range forecasting? My only way is to look at the text discussions and see what blends they use and if there’s a trend to weigh one model more than the other.
      Edit you always have a great ‘look out the window’ forecast.

      • CHeden

        Good question.
        I think that the definition of a “better handle” though, is kinda subjective. If we take our current/upcoming event as an example, the GFS for instance has/had been suggesting a pattern like this for over two weeks…but it’s also showed bupkis at times, too.
        So, do we give the GFS a nod because it was picking up on this possible pattern well in advance, or give it a boot out the back door given all the other wildly varying solutions it was also spitting out?
        Tough call, IMHO.
        Anyway, here’s the various models side by side from Penn State showing 500mb heights in the MR. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html
        I look at these regularly, and by comparing their individual volatility, I can usually pick out which model has a better “handle” on the generic set up (i.e. avoiding hi-res details). Hope I touched on what yer asking.

        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8aff170e7a1c035b2cacac8c7cd5f538ce6fc0497794eaec71952070c266d3d2.gif

  • Cap’n

    Just polished my glass rain gauge and covered up my wood in anticipation of tonight’s bit of precipitation. Also doubled the dose of Maca in my green shake to give me Doppler energy tonight. Might as well enjoy it as the next heat wave lurks around the corner.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3a3f33305dc90ed819b3b735981adf4abe92a1b975ad4f6fa28b596cf7737bf4.png

    • matthew

      Reno’s forecast calls for a jump back into the 70’s as soon as this “storm” passes. This is the kind of weather that I expected in late-September so it looks like we will get the autumn weather that we missed earlier. As of now, a warm start to the day at 38F already.

      • Cap’n

        Totally, warmest morning in awhile, it will be crisp again the next few. You’re right , what a chilly September and first half of October. I haven’t even winterized the cabin yet.

    • I’m just glad you didn’t polish your wood and cover up your glass or I’d say muzikman is trying to unleash the white stuff on us a in a bobble headed fury.