Typical early autumn conditions prevail; some thoughts on La Niña

Filed in Uncategorized by on October 5, 2017 2,837 Comments

A pretty typical early start to autumn across California

Warmer than average conditions have persisted near the immediate coast, but temperatures have cooled over inland areas (and the Sierra Nevada in particular). (WRCC)

For the first time in many months, California has been experiencing weather conditions pretty close to the climatological norm for the time of year. After a summer of searing, record-breaking heat, the past few weeks have featured temperatures relatively close to typical early autumn values across much of the state (temperatures have actually been somewhat below average across interior portions of the state, particularly across the Sierra Nevada, where the season’s first dusting of snow fell last week). In a welcome reversal from the relentless inland heat this summer, conditions have been warmer than average only along the immediate coastline–not an unusual fall set-up in California.

Generalized statewide warming will occur over the next few days, and some late-season heat will occur over near-coastal portions of central and southern California this weekend as offshore flow develops. In fact, gusty hilltop winds and very low humidity will lead to fire weather concerns this weekend in the Bay Area and Southern California coastal hills. But a gradual cool-down back toward typical values is expected once again later next week, and perhaps even a bit below average after that. These relatively mild temperature swings–with occasionally breezy conditions–are the product of “inside slider” type low pressure systems dropping southward over the Great Basin. These systems are unlikely to bring any significant precipitation to California over the next 1-2 weeks, and conditions look dry for the foreseeable future across most of the state.

An Pacific ridge plus increasing offshore pressure gradients will lead to warm, dry, and gusty conditions this weekend across coastal California. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

 

What’s up with October precipitation in California?

There’s often much consternation on the part of California weather watchers when dry conditions persist during the month of October. It’s certainly true that October is often the transition month between California’s long, dry summers and (usually) wet winters, and almost always brings cooler nights, milder days, and a general sense that winter is coming. However, autumn in California is also characterized by dramatic year-to-year swings that ultimately have little bearing on conditions during the rainy season that follows. (A quick analysis using data from NOAA confirms that the correlation between October and December-February statewide precipitation is a minuscule, and not statistically meaningful, 0.09).

October precipitation in California is usually quite low, except for occasional very wet years. (NOAA data; graphic by Daniel Swain)

Why, then, is there so much excitement over what happens during the month of October? My best guess is that our collective perception of what constitutes a “typical October” is strongly shaped by a quirk of California climatology. The historical precipitation distribution during this month exhibits a strong “rightward skew”–in other words, there are many more dry Octobers than wet ones overall, but when October is wet, it can be quite wet indeed. The more general statement that there are “more dry years than wet years” holds true across California, but this effect seems to be particularly pronounced in early autumn. The reason? October tends to be dominated by essentially “summer-like” high pressure during most years, with relatively modest precipitation outside of the northernmost part of the state. Every 5-10 years, however, October can become very wet month indeed–and some notably powerful early-season storms have affected Northern California in recent years. Anecdotally, there does seem to be a link between “recurving” West Pacific super typhoons and California’s occasional very wet Octobers, but that’s a discussion for another day.

 

La Niña now developing in Pacific; what can we say about upcoming winter?

The Multi-Model Ensemble suggests rather classic La Nina conditions this winter, plus very warm conditions in the subtropical Pacific. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

A substantial La Niña event now appears to be developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean. There were hints of this in the coupled ocean-atmosphere models this summer, though the magnitude appears to have been underestimated. In any case, there is now a general consensus that the now-established cool ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific will persist through most of the upcoming winter. Concurrently warm temperatures in the far western Pacific (and a much broader area of anomalous warmth in the subtropical North Pacific) have the potential to reinforce a fairly classic “La Niña-like” atmospheric response this winter by further strengthening the west-east tropical temperature differential.

What does all of this mean for California? Well, that’s a bit of a loaded question in the wake of two very conspicuous seasonal forecast failures over the past two winters in California. The very powerful El Niño event in 2015-2016 yielded a dry winter in southern California, and the ENSO-neutral winter just last year was one of the wettest on record across northern portions of the state. Both of these outcomes were contrary to expectations, and there has recently been a surge in scientific inquiry regarding why this might have happened.

Current multi-model forecasts suggest an slightly increased likelihood of dry conditions later this winter in/near California. (CPC)

While the jury is still out (and analyses are still underway–peer reviewed science tends to proceed slowly relative to shifting weather patterns!), leading contenders are 1) the unusually broad pattern of ocean warming in recent winters and 2) just plain old “bad luck.” In other words: it is possible that the atmospheric response to ocean temperature variations caused by El Niño/La Niña is now different than it would have been if the subtropical Pacific hadn’t been so warm in recent years. But scientists have also known for a long time that ENSO, despite being the single strongest indicator regarding California precipitation on the seasonal scale, is far from the only game in town. It may well be that other influences were simply more important in recent years, essentially drowning out the ENSO influence.

Nevertheless, there is still very strong theoretical and observational evidence that El Niño and La Niña do indeed exert a substantial and somewhat predictable influence upon California winter precipitation. In practice, this influence is large enough to influence seasonal forecasts only during moderate to strong El Niño/La Niña events, and that influence is strongest 1) in Southern California and 2) during the second half of winter (especially late January, February, and March).

Warm conditions likely this fall, per NMME forecasts. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Cooler conditions may edge toward California later this winter. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

So what about this year? Well, it looks like La Niña may indeed reach at least moderate strength over the next couple of months and will have a rather “classic” presentation across the tropical Pacific, suggesting that there may be an elevated risk of drier than average conditions during the second half of winter, particularly across Southern California. This is a conclusion supported by current seasonal model forecasts, but only weakly. Temperature wise, there is near unanimity that the autumn will be quite warm on average across California (apparently a product of very warm ocean temperatures over the subtropical Pacific Ocean). Later in the winter, however, there is also agreement regarding a trend toward a more La Niña-like temperature pattern–with below average temperatures across the Pacific Northwest possibly extending into California. (Interestingly, seasonal temperature forecasts tend to do much better than precipitation forecasts in the presence of a significant La Niña event. The presence of persistent North Pacific high pressure is the classic atmospheric response to La Niña, which reliably allows cold air to spill southward from Alaska/Canada but only sometimes blocks the Pacific storm track sufficiently to prevent rain to California).

So, to sum it all up: a moderately strong La Niña event this winter will tilt the odds slightly in favor of a dry second half of winter, especially in the south. Autumn temperatures will likely be above average, but winter temperatures may trend back toward or below average.

 

“Climate Change Cliff Notes” interactive discussion on Thursday, October 5

I’ll be having a free-form conversation on climate change (with a California focus) with Sarah Feakins and Michael Mann tonight at the Los Angeles Museum of Natural History. The (free) tickets for this event sold out weeks ago, but there will be some limited availability for those who show up at the door. If you are interested but can’t attend (or make it in the door), the event will also be livestreamed via the web on the UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability’s Facebook page starting at 7pm.

 

  • gray whale

    Looking NNE from above Coloma out to the front line as it sweeps over the foothills. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/13b8f04ae69cb899e9c5f764358985182a87aac51e361c2d46f92437feecaf87.jpg

    • Dan the Weatherman

      Would these clouds be classified as altocumulus? They look like the altocumulus associated with the summer monsoon, except that they look lower level than the summer variety.

      • gray whale

        overrunning stratocumulus would be my best guess. CHeden?

        • Dan the Weatherman

          I was also thinking these clouds may be stratocumulus if not altocumulus.

        • CHeden

          StCu for sure.
          Same as what I’ve got up here in Cottonwood.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            Thanks for the info! I am trying to learn to identify cloud types as much as possible.

  • CHeden

    And on a local note:
    Within the last hour, our previously clear skies here in Cottonwood are now mostly cloudy (StCu) as a well defined cloud band from the WSW is advancing rapidly overhead. This leading edge is not eroding as it bumps into the departing ridge…plus the direction is mostly westerly…all of which is giving me higher confidence that the system off the coast will remain progressive and bring us some badly needed rainfall. As I mentioned earlier, given decent forcing, some isolated convection is possible during/after CF passage. Here’s the sounding showing some low CAPE along with the front. Wish the frontal passage would hold off until tomorrow when daytime heating would help fire off any storms, but ATTM, it looks like most of the action will be overnight and early tomorrow morning.

    • CHeden
      • How long has the precip rate been embedded? Levi keeps raising the bar.

        • CHeden

          Can’t exactly recall a specific date, but the imbedded precip rate graphic started showing up after they resumed posting soundings. If you remember, Levi suspended the soundings during the Irma/Maria/Jose crisis when the servers were in danger of crashing from all the hits.

    • Cap’n

      Looking at the NAM it sure seems like you could be in the sweet spot. Also wouldn’t be surprised to see Lassen and Shasta get a foot + or so.

      • CHeden

        Good call. My wife and I have been planning to take a ride tomorrow up to Lassen to check out Fall colors. A nice dusting of snow should provide some nice photo-op’s!
        Will let you know how much fell when we get back.

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    Will this be the year that NOAA gets their US Winter Outlook right?
    Place all bets now.

    https://twitter.com/NOAA/status/921031866890817537

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Let’s hope it’s wrong.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Their track record hasn’t been all that great over the past few years, so I wouldn’t be shocked if this ends up missing the mark.

        I don’t say that to impugn their abilities. Seasonal forecasts are incredibly hard to get right.

        • Weak Nina’s with the exception of last year have not played ball with the LACW.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            They’ve featured below avg rainfall no doubt, but some of the weak La Niña seasons featured some very interesting cold storms with low snow levels around here, December 2008 was amazing.

            I also think the Godzilla Kayak Niño of 2015/16 taught us a thing or two about reliance on past analogs, perhaps the deck has been reshuffled a bit and we’re in store for some surprises. This will be fun to watch, assuming we all survive the next heat wave. 😉

          • Dan the Weatherman

            I remember the December 2008 storm. There was snow on the lower peaks of the Santa Ana Mountains in places I have never seen snow before, and the snow was visible from my living room here in Orange! I have never seen snow from my living room at any other time in the 20+ years I have lived here if I remember correctly.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            There were several storms that month, all with low snow levels. the San Gabriels looked like the Rockies. Felt like I was in Denver.

            Then the storms stopped after Christmas and January was dry and mild.

          • Pfirman

            After ‘Godzilla Kayak Nino’ all you can say is ‘the San Gabriels looked like the Rockies. Felt like I was in Denver.’? C’mon.

          • We were fixated on 1/100 ‘th of a degree Centigrade. We went on a blind date based on an hourglass figure. LOL

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            And then when the lights were turned down and the band played the ballad, we danced with her cheek to cheek and we felt stubble on her chin.

          • Love is only a light switch away.

    • A little surprised PacNW isn’t in the +precip color. Snow weenies along I95 won’t like the temp forecast. I can hear them wail now on other blogs and beginning to rip the guy that does first snowflake to last snowflake forecast. :)… edit oops that one won’t come out till November.

      • Pfirman

        Save the weenies for the bbq.

    • CHeden

      A “classic” and unremarkable La Nina signature if you ask me.
      However, now that there are signs La Nina may be on the wane as well as a STJ (southern jet is common in ENSO+ rather than ENSO-) starting to emerge, this outlook may already be outdated?
      Next update is on 11/16.
      Sigh.

  • CHeden

    The updated GFS sounding for my place later tonight has increased the MUCAPE to 142J/kg. There will be a thick, saturated layer in the middle levels that will form a strong cap/inversion, so any convection would likely be low-topped (at best).
    While the numbers are not impressive, it’s still an upward’s trend…and one that may be indicating the system will end up more towards the high side of expectations.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fde7eda4f530c131b86e3fcaa58476f2445068ad3a1cc2fadb83932bb7ec7cba.png

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Hope it pans out for you CHeden. We’ll delight in your tales of the first real rain of Winter ’17-’18.

  • jstrahl

    Not a trained meteorologist, i don’t even play one on TV or the Web, but my eyes see large dry air pockets entrained in the flow created by the low dropping down, Longitude 130W to 150 W, latitude 30N-40N. I think we’ll be lucky to get some rain at all in the Bay Area, and i really don’t know about any storm door staying open for a few days.
    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/wv-l.jpg

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      Any rain that comes will be minimal. Lucky if there is enough to settle the dust, Storm door is not open for a few days.

      • CHeden

        As long as the block stays where it is, the eastern trough will remain in place with new spin-ups possible. ATTM, forecasts have another weak low coming through as late as Saturday. Not exactly a parade of storms granted, but at least not totally a one-and-done, either.

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          I am basing it only on the GFS, so obviously I could be missing something. All I see in the near term is the ridge building in right behind the system. At least for us, I expect nothing with the incoming storm and nothing to follow. The long range fantasyland is interesting. It has been toying with this past couple of days. A strong high pressure ridge in the gulf of Alaska and PNW with an open door to CA. Seems like the potential for storms to undercut the ridge in early November although a lot can change till then

          • CHeden

            Actually, I’m not locked to the models, but relying more on satellite imagery and current maps. There’s a lot of real-time stuff going on.

          • Pfirman

            Pretty much. You can see it out the window or better yet go outside and enjoy.

    • Cap’n

      This is a one and done and I wouldn’t expect much south of Fort Alanstorm mnear the coast. After a couple brisk days it will be time to lather up with SPF 95

      • Dan the Weatherman

        One and done storms are quite common for this time of year, as the rainy season is not established as of yet. Storms affecting Socal this time of year tend to be that way as well.

    • CHeden

      There is a lot yet to take place. Upstream energy is about to round the base of the mean trough which should enhance/possibly stall the front as it pushes SE.
      Plus, it appears that a new push of colder air is digging down the backside of the trough and perhaps will interact with the plume moving eastward. I think we’re going to see a very dynamic day of WV loops.

      • jstrahl

        “Mean” here used as in “average,” not “nasty,” right? 🙂 Interesting observations, thanks.

        • CHeden

          LoL!
          Could go either way, at that.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    NOAA forecast is trending hotter Monday and Tuesday. 96 and 99 degrees respectively. This is ridiculous.

  • CHeden

    Today’s Pacific Briefing from the NCEP is particularly interesting and goes into the differences between the models and discussion why one (the GFS) is favored in the forecast.
    A little bit of serendipity given 2Pluvious’ question from just a couple of hours ago, who should find this particularly interesting (I hope)!.
    http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/P_brief_text.shtml

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    I have noticed over the years of my observing of the weather, in particular sat. sequences, that when a GOA low drops down into the vicinity of the Pacific NW, and a stream of subtropical moisture (Kona low) comes up to meet the cold front, that they almost always “avoid” each other. What I mean is they seem to shun merging and the resulting amplification of the moisture ban falls apart. What causes this? Looking at the sequence below you can see what I’m trying to describe.

    http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_big.html

    • CHeden

      Wherever there are two lows, there is relatively high pressure between them….which tends to keep each low’s flow separated.
      Plus, the lows are at different elevations. VISIBLE satellite imagery is great for determining which is the upper low and which one is closer to the surface. Hope this helps.

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Yeah, that’s very helpful Professor. So when the forecasters mention, like they have this present week, about what I described above, they don’t take into account your explanation?

        • CHeden

          I’m sure they do…but what exactly did the forecaster’s mention? I musta missed something.

        • DayHoe Herald

          They definitely do — and their forecast confidence depends upon likelihood of other factors that will favor, or not, the adsorption phenomenology

      • inclinejj

        Simplified..Does that mean each low rips each other apart?

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          It means high pressure & areas of upper convergence between two low pressure systems are effective chaperones that prevent two systems from getting too close during the dance.

          • CHeden

            Ya, kinda like that.

          • Pfirman

            Even chaperones snooze once in a while.

        • CHeden

          No, It just means that the relative ridges that by definition exist outside each low’s circulations tend to repel each other. Note though, that this is a “generalized” answer. There are also ways which lows can phase with each other or get adsorbed when one low’s closed circulation ceases and opens into a open wave due to interference from the other low…which is what I think you’re asking about?

          • inclinejj

            Thanks!

          • Bombillo1

            But 2 Hs can merge even though they would have a relative low between?

          • DayHoe Herald

            Well done re use of the word ‘adsorbed’ — crucial concept in this context!!

          • Pfirman

            I am late to the table, busy and all, but I was going to make this very same laudatory comment.
            Kudos all around.

      • Pfirman

        A visual of the VISIBLE, aka the pertinent links and screen grabs you do so well would be welcome. I don’t have a clue what these look like.
        You may remember my aha moment when you and another guy out in the desert down south, but who was raised in Bozeman and who has been absent, were remarking on contrails and ‘cold air aloft’.
        These aha moments are far too few between.

    • Cap’n

      Maybe Paula Abdul lied to us and opposites don’t actually attract?

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        LOL, I’m not one to look to the popular culture mouthpieces for scientific explanations of what the H is going on! : ^ )

        • Pfirman

          Sure, just look to your Freudian slip….’What I mean is they seem to shun merging and the resulting amplification of the moisture ban falls apart’.
          I know you meant to write band, not ban, but after the long drought I had to laugh.
          Not sure how popular Freud is these days.

  • Relative to the unpredictability of rainy winter, last year I saw ‘La La Land’ about Christmas, came down with a really obnoxious virus, and spent nearly a week watching sunshine and blue skies from a fevered bed, and trying to get the vamp from the second number out of my head (“Someone in the Crowd”- I can see why the movie was dissed, because its lighthearted subject matter did not match the country’s mood. But when you pooh-pooh production numbers as tuneful and original as the ones in that, you really are jaded.) I would have bet long money at short odds on another dry winter as I lay in misery – but shortly thereafter all hell broke loose. The year before we had the phantom El Nino. This year we have had an obnoxious October, but following a September so strange no one can remember when. So I wouldn’t bank on anything.

    By the way, after the really inventive production number on the freeway that opens ‘La La Land’, done in brilliant sunshine, you get the caption . . .. ‘Winter’. That may be the most depressing weather joke I have encountered in my lifetime.

    • gray whale

      what the hell are you talking about my man

      • Bombillo1

        Gray, you have to get out to the movies now and then. Granted it is a diminishing return.

        • Pfirman

          No one ‘has’ to get out to the movies.
          Maybe a documentary or two. I have a long list of those.

  • alanstorm

    Today’s 6 day precip map pretty much exactly the same the last 5 days:
    “4.0 for DelNorte Mtns
    “0.5 for Willits.
    & barely anything for the Bay Area.
    Considering 45mph gusts are on tap for Humboldt/DelNorte, this is quite a robust little front with ample moisture.
    Unfortunately, 1 & done as Jstrahl said below
    Maybe some T-storms later?
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e01726d2693fb27a0e3add73e20122707810380a75a2ad18d16985446c9297b0.png

    • jstrahl

      Bay Area so minimal it’s not even on the map.:-)

      • alanstorm

        .10 I’m betting for you.
        If I’m wrong, I’ll go on your morning jog with you thru Berkeley with a “make America Great Again” t-shirt on

        • Bet taken.

        • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

          I have one in Russian but can’t wear it. Everyone here thinks its the real thing and it’s too dangerous.

          • Been rummaging through Melania’s wardrobe again, I see.

          • Pfirman

            Most of her wardrobe is from Manchuria.

        • jstrahl

          You’re gonna wear that on MY behalf? Seriously? 🙂

          • alanstorm

            Right. Try to find me if I lose that bet!

          • jstrahl

            If it’s to settle with me, i’d rather you wore a Dead t-shirt! 🙂

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          LMAO, you need to videotape that jog and the people’s expressions as you jog by. Priceless

          • DayHoe Herald

            Mission already accomplished as I’m already LOL’ing — great imagery

        • Charlie B

          Don’t forget to show up in a 1982 white pick up with an Easy Rider Rifle Rack plus NRA and “America love it or leave it” bumper stickers on the back.

        • Pfirman

          Add the hat and flood stillettos and no one will even notice.

    • Nice start.

    • tomocean

      It doesn’t seem like an F0 or F1 tornado (as mentioned in the video) would have been able to flip cars like seen in Napa/Sonoma?

      • Pfirman

        Links? Not in the news I have seen.
        I heard anecdotal stories of a freak tornado in Chico that lifted tractors.

        • tomocean

          It looks to me like it would take at least an EF-3 (or maybe a high EF-2) to flip a car.

          EF-0 65 – 85 mph wind speeds. Minor damage.
          Some damage to chimneys; branches broken off trees; shallow-rooted trees pushed over; sign boards damaged.

          EF-1 86 – 110 mph wind speeds. Moderate damage.
          The lower limit is the beginning of hurricane wind speed; peels surface off roofs; mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned; moving autos pushed off the roads; attached garages may be destroyed.

          EF-2 111 – 135 mph wind speeds. Considerable damage.
          Roofs torn off frame houses; mobile homes demolished; boxcars overturned; large trees snapped or uprooted; highrise windows broken and blown in; light-object missiles generated.

          EF-3 136 – 165 mph wind speeds. Critical damage.
          Roofs and some walls torn off well-constructed houses; trains overturned; most trees in forest uprooted; skyscrapers twisted and deformed with massive destruction of exteriors; heavy cars lifted off the ground and thrown.

          EF-4 166 – 200 mph wind speeds. Severe damage.
          Well-constructed houses leveled; structures with weak foundations blown away some distance; cars thrown and large missiles generated. Skyscrapers and highrises toppled and destroyed.

          EF-5 200 – + mph wind speeds. Devastating damage.
          Strong frame houses lifted off foundations and carried considerable distances to disintegrate; automobile sized missiles fly through the air in excess of 100 m (109 yd); trees debarked; steel reinforced concrete structures badly damaged; incredible phenomena will occur.

          • Pfirman

            ‘Incredible phenomena will occur’……Well, that covers a lot of bases, if they are not already landing in Oz.

  • tomocean
    • Pfirman

      Can’t wait to hear what actually happened.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Last year my cactus bloomed in mid October. I wonder if this warmer weather is delaying that. No bloom so far.

    Also looks like the heatwave could last longer compared to what models showed yesterday. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/29bc4aa5fad69fafeea690f29e641d40c4f6900964220efa798aba7d57fa44a1.jpg

  • SoCalWXwatcher
    • Lame….

    • Bombillo1

      Californiaphobia

    • CHeden

      Just about right for early Fall.
      But, as I’ve writing about, things could change.

    • Nathan

      0.02 La Jolla! yeaahhh busting out the raingear.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Sandbags & berms!

      • BRP (Ventura)

        0.00 in Ventura! Yeaahhhh, our one and only source of water, Lake Casitas, is down to 36% capacity, and dropping by 1% every 2 weeks! So stoked to be living in “Atacama Desert North”!

        • Pfirman

          Stop dissing your other source of water, the sky, and maybe it will smile on you.

        • Faria1

          Yep and 100 degrees in Ojai by Tuesday. Fun times

    • Fairweathercactus

      Reminds me of nearly every winter storm during the peak of the drought.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        If it was January, it would be disappointing. But for October, meh.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          It is typical to get the tail end of storms or inside sliders with small amounts of rainfall to no rainfall in October before a Santa Ana wind event. Both the Cedar and Witch Creek firestorms of 2003 and 2007 respectively were late October events, so this type of weather is rather typical for this time of year. The Freeway Complex Fire that affected locales such as Yorba Linda, Santa Ana Canyon and Anaheim Hills occurred in mid November. I hope we don’t experience a large scale fire outbreak next week like that of a 2003, 2007 or 2008.

          • happ [Los Angeles]

            Offshore gradients don’t look too bad; just another intense ridge overhead next week w/ some wind

        • Chris

          Thanks for the dose of optimism!

    • DayHoe Herald

      I’d take that — thanks for posting — green with envy in Yolo per the precipitation guidance

      • Pfirman

        You lost me. Envy of SoCal? ??

    • Dan the Weatherman

      It’s good to see some clean air and blue skies at last in Norcal, after all that the area has been through! If only the area can now finally receive some decent rains.

  • alanstorm

    DRIZZLE FEST in Willits, currently.
    …not worthy of an “incoming” proclamation

  • MetaGhost (Berkeley)
    • Pfirman

      I may be in a minority of one, but I do not really need or want to see another example of one of these.

  • Taz & Storm Master
    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      sure looked nice on the latest GFS run, hopefully it holds together and doesn’t disappear on us.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      You like those 300+hr GFS charts don’t you? 😉
      That’s one heckuva ridge over AK, with the 552dm line over Anchorage, and the 534dm line surrounding the Bay Area. That would be something.

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7ead5660aced93bd943ce9438e49f714f8144f467b2f656068cca961470f4c0a.png

      • Taz & Storm Master

        yes i do and since its so early in the season that would be some in has well

      • Dan the Weatherman

        Now THAT would be a good setup for CA if only it verified! Of course this is Fantasyland, so we can’t get our hopes up just yet.

  • weathergeek100

    I don’t understand why the Monterey AFD seems so certain for rain, when the chance of rain here in SF is still only at 40%. Yet, the wording in the discussion says ‘widespread rain’ will move in tonight. Yeah, that can be interpreted in different ways, but still c’mon.

    • Pfirman

      Widespread means one drop per square mile. It could also mean you have to iron your clothes on the driveway.

  • Boiio

    Thanks for the post, Daniel.

    As a native northern Californian, the last 11 days have easily been the toughest period in my lifetime here. The amount of human suffering in the North Bay is incomprehensible. If this is the direction California is heading with climate change, then we are in big trouble. The last 5 years have been impossibly extreme!

  • jstrahl

    Looking at the satellite loops, something tells me the event is over. Some spots in the North Bay picked up a few hundreds of an inch, up to .15 inches in high ground. Wundermap shows nothing anywhere near the Bay Area.

  • Chris

    System OVER preforming!
    Looks like a weak squall line moved in. Heavy rain and winds to 31 mph.
    This is in Morgan Hill. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/abf1a6ffbc2b740b629c42645b2a2ec0d990e15eda0435373d94bbdb39239c2f.png

  • Taz & Storm Master

    The 06z still has the cold snap for the 1st week of nov and it even moved it up in the time line a little

  • Howard Goodman

    Up here at 4K feet in the Town of Ragdump got 1.25 inches

  • Howard Goodman

    After the ice melted in the rain gauge came up a little more to 1.36

  • Howard Goodman
    • Pfirman

      How come Jarbo Gap was never a character in Star Wars?

      • Howard Goodman

        I’ll have to ask Steve , but it is home to Scooters Cafe and a CDF Fire Station and the good road getting to my place 11,5 miles up the road

  • Howard Goodman

    Them a couple of more afternoon showers got a few more 100ths for right at 1.40