Thunderstorms possible across Southern California early this week; “The Blob” returns to the North Pacific

Filed in Uncategorized by on September 18, 2016 3,057 Comments

Widespread thunderstorms possible across Southern California Mon/Tues, but considerable uncertainty remains

An upper-level low will be in a favorable position to produce SoCal thunderstorms Mon-Tues. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

An upper-level low will be in a favorable position to produce SoCal thunderstorms Mon-Tues. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

After an unusually quiescent summer across Southern California in 2016 (especially compared to the previous year), a bout of active weather is likely to affect Southern California early this week. A rather complex weather pattern is currently evolving over the far eastern Pacific Ocean south of California, with an upper-level low currently spinning just off the coast and newly-formed Tropical Storm Paine moving northwestward over the ocean parallel to Baja California. Over the next 48 to 72 hours, the upper-level low will approach the the California coastline and entrain tropical moisture emanating from TS Paine–potentially bringing a rather widespread outbreak of thunderstorms to much of Southern California.

A significant amount of uncertainty remains, however. The exact trajectory of the upper low will dictate whether the greatest atmospheric instability–and therefore risk of thunderstorms–remains offshore over the California Bight. The overall dynamical setup still looks pretty favorable for a significant convective event (although perhaps not quite as favorable as it appeared a couple days ago). Strong upper-level diffluence on the east side of the low combined with a modest jet streak, the presence of a few vorticity lobes moving overhead, and increasingly deep tropical moisture, may together be enough to trigger the development of a large mid-level convective cloud deck with embedded thunderstorms. This sort of weather pattern often brings “patchy” thunderstorm activity in this part of the world–meaning that while there’s a good chance that some spots see some significant weather, other places may just see some pretty clouds.

Remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Paine will become entrained in the southerly flow over SoCal. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Paine will become entrained in the southerly flow over SoCal. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Another important point here is at overall precipitation with this event is actually expected to be rather light–almost universally under a quarter inch and probably less than a tenth of an inch in most places. The potential for widespread lightning without significant precipitation raises the prospect of dry lightning, and attendant fire weather concerns (especially given that this event is occurring following a particularly hot/dry weekend and in the midst of an extreme drought). The National Weather Services offices in Los Angeles and San Diego have issued Fire Weather Watches accordingly. Some risk of dry lightning may extend as far north as the Central Coast and central Sierra Nevada, but the highest risk will likely remain across coastal Southern California.

There is some further uncertainty regarding what happens on Wednesday and Thursday, as the remnant circulation center from then-decaying TS Paine lingers. Model forecasts are less aggressive currently than they were a few days ago regarding the progression of remnant moisture/energy into SoCal, so a repeat of the remarkable Hurricane Dolores remnant event last summer is unlikely. Still, there is some potential for a risk of showers and thunderstorms to linger beyond Tuesday across parts of SoCal, especially in the mountains and deserts. It does appear for the moment that the highest likelihood of thunderstorms near the coast will occur with the initial moisture surge on Monday and Tuesday.

Model forecasts show the remnant circulation from TS Paine moving toward Southern California later this week. (NCEP/NHC via tropicaltidbits.com)

Model forecasts show the remnant circulation from TS Paine moving toward Southern California later this week. (NCEP/NHC via tropicaltidbits.com)

 

“The Blob” returns to the North Pacific, and La Niña is fizzling

There has been much discussion in recent days regarding the return of a broad region of very anomalously warm ocean temperatures to the far northeastern Pacific Ocean. In a spatial sense, this warm anomaly strongly resembles the North Pacific “Blob” which has recurred during several recent winters–often coinciding with anomalously strong and persistent atmospheric high pressure associated with the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge. Indeed, a quick analysis of recent pressure patterns reveals that a region of anomalously high pressure (both at the surface and aloft) is once again present over the North Pacific.

An anomalous ridge has returned to the North Pacific in recent weeks. (NCEP via ESRL plotter)

An anomalous ridge has returned to the North Pacific in recent weeks. (NCEP via ESRL plotter)

The warm "Blob" has returned to the North Pacific. (NCEP)

The warm “Blob” has returned to the North Pacific. (NCEP)

It’s certainly true that the warm ocean “Blob” and the seemingly ever-present “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge” correspond in space and time–and it’s therefore reasonable to hypothesize that they are causally related to one another. But even a strong correlation does not necessarily tell us anything about direction of this relationship–in other words, is the warm ocean causing the atmospheric high pressure, or vice versa?

Disentangling cause and effect can be quite challenging in atmospheric science given the potential for self-reinforcing or self-mitigating “feedbacks” in the Earth system, since in certain situations the ocean can strongly influence the atmosphere above but in others the ocean is primarily responding to atmospheric variations (and sometimes the relationship goes both ways!). In the case of The Blob, there’s a fair bit of evidence that the warm ocean water is actually a secondary consequence of the persistent atmospheric high pressure above it. Since the persistent Triple R suppresses the North Pacific storm track, there are fewer strong wind events to vertically “mix” the warmer upper layers of the ocean with cooler waters from beneath, and the net result is that the surface ocean stays unusually warm. So it does not appear that The Blob is the primary cause of the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge–other Earth system interactions are likely at play (and this remains the subject of ongoing research, including my own). It’s also possible that The Blob, despite not being an initial cause of the Ridge, may indeed be reinforcing the Triple R’s persistence–and if that’s the case there may indeed be implications for the coming winter. But despite a number of media headlines to the contrary, the return of the Blob does not necessarily portend the return of the Triple R.

As much as it would be nice to say that the outlook for the coming winter is coming into focus, that’s not yet the case. La Niña appears to be fizzling in the tropical Pacific, and the latest multi-model ensemble forecast suggests that the marginally cool SSTs in the eastern tropical Pacific have already bottomed out. ENSO-neutral conditions are now the most likely outcome for the coming winter–meaning that there’s one less tool in the forecasting toolbox to make predictions regarding California precipitation.

The multi-model ensemble suggests the persistence of very warm North Pacific Ocean temperatures this winter. (CPC)

The multi-model ensemble suggests the persistence of very warm North Pacific Ocean temperatures this winter. (CPC)

Multi-model ensemble forecast suggests ENSO-neutral conditions most like for coming winter. (CPC)

Multi-model ensemble forecast suggests ENSO-neutral conditions most like for coming winter. (CPC)

It is interesting to note that the multi-model ensemble does predict the persistence of an unusually warm North Pacific (in somewhat “Blob”-like fashion) through the coming winter months. There has been some suggestion that West Coast ridging may be enhanced once again during the coming winter as well. At the same time, though, these same models have been producing very inconsistent precipitation forecasts for the same period–varying from rather wet over California to quite dry during the first half of the rainy season (forecasts for the latter half of the rainy season, though, have generally been on the dry side–especially in Southern California).

It’s important to realize that multi-month precipitation outlooks are quite challenging in California. This is partly because it only takes a small handful of powerful atmospheric river storms to “make or break” annual precipitation totals across much of the state, and it’s therefore possible to have very dry conditions (and persistent ridging) punctuated by a few brief but intense periods of heavy precipitation that heavily sway the overall average. That’s not a specific prediction for this year, but recent evidence does suggest that increasingly wide swings in California precipitation are likely as the climate warms. For the moment, we’ll just have to wait and see how the Pacific Ocean and model forecasts evolve in the coming months.

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  • Huff (Anaheim Hills)
    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      We had a great sunset too! Nice

  • annette johnson

    Still pretty warm here in Havasu https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/09eb226d46e18bf622c37ded2e23364fa53579827df543e66a84a539547a5a8c.jpg, but I think pretty perfect for IJSBA World Finals. Went down to watch some of the riders practicing for the freestyle competition. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e4d3fe9bb7d33795e3b9e49876c8ced43508b0f68a065d7917d990f15ef96acc.jpg Later on this evening some dark clouds rolled in with a little bit of thunder, sprinkles and lightning, but as usual the River acted as a repellent and moved the little storm back into Az.

  • Virginia Hills (Martinez)

    Oh it’s been a long time since I’ve posted. Looking forward to dusting the old rain gauge off for another season. Question for fellow weather geeks: Any recommendation on a home weather station? Preferably something that can connect to wifi, share data, and maybe even self-emptying rain gauge? Or are those things any good?

    I’m liking what I see on the forecast a week out… then again, I have been saying that for 4 years now. We shall see.

    • mattzweck

      Davis instruments has some pretty good wireless weather stations. i have the cabled version though. depending on how much you want to spend.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        I currently have the vantage vue from Davis, and it’s wifi ready, but you have to order some more parts to add to the capabilities. Performance wise I’d highly recommend, it empties the excess rainwater as well. I’m looking into getting mine also set up for sharing home data along with a webcam for when times actually get exciting.

    • Thunderstorm

      Start online at weathershack.com they seem to have the best prices. Davis instruments has a outlet in Hayward, don’t buy there, over priced but you can see the the different types on display. Your rain gauge will need to be set perfectly level. Attach the rain gauge to something that the wind does not move otherwise the tip bucket will be not accurate. I’m still looking for a better anemometer.

    • Tom

      We have the Ambient WS 1001. I also have standard rain gauge and thermometers. This station tracks my cocorahs rain gauge quite accurately-usually within 5%. . Temperatures also very close. The only issue I can speak of is very high winds will result in spurious rain readings. Perhaps the mount isn’t solid enough, or the issue may be in the station. In general the software and connection has been solid thru weather underground.

  • Barney

    All hail Mt. Rainier…

    Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Windy, with a west wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 34 to 40 inches possible.

    The rest of the week is here:
    http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=46.8529&lon=-121.7604#.V_oH9PkrKM8

  • RunningSprings6250
    • yenlard

      Too bad it’s in the 9 day window. Although Oxnard did hint at something like this yesterday. That would be so welcome here in So Cal.

      • RunningSprings6250

        Well it all starts somewhere right, that’s why we waste time watching and waiting – lol – first PNW, now it looks like NorCal/bay area is sure to get rain & mountain snow.

        Only a matter of time before a moisture laden low squeaks into the southland!

        • yenlard

          Still there on the 12z…does the Euro show this?

        • Dan the Weatherman

          Now I am just waiting for NWS San Diego to start mentioning it at least as a possibility in the long range.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      I’m a believer.

    • I smell a blog update soon. ?

    • Nathan

      Daniel. He controls all of it.

  • Barney

    Thorough report from BA this morning. He seems confident in a pretty decent rain event next weekend. Also states that the Tahoe Basin ended the water year at 106% average?

    https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe

    • Dan weather maniac

      Great post from BA! Im starting to get pshyed up for this. I see some 2-3 inches in the bay hills and mountains as well. I’ll believe more on Wednesday if it still looks this way but we are almost in the 5 day window so I’m crossing my fingers, keeping ulcer meds close by of course.

      • Barney

        The last several winters I’ve lived on Tums and Rolaids to get me through the emotional roller coaster.

    • Do you subscribe to his All-Access pass? Good knowledge re MJO. If this was a med-strong Niña. We’d be thinking the opposite of last year IRT MJO phasing and what was constructive vs destructive interference in a +phase space.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Hope things materialize, would be nice to see an inflow into Tahoe. I went ahead and cleared off my deck of furniture and undid the hose for the winter (not before one final car wash). Hopefully you get the final mountain bike ride in before we see the white stuff on the ground.

  • RunningSprings6250
  • mosedart (SF)

    Two consecutive ARs? Something must be broken in the models, they are both within 9 days too.

    • When we’re they fixed? ?

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Via Daniel, donut of doom slowly waning? https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/785164739240275968

      • Check and see what hadley cell in NP especially EPAC may be doing this winter. I don’t have a clue other than it’s the donut hole that’s been too far North.

      • Rainmaker (San Jose)

        is that showing an inch and a half of rain accumulation for the bay area?!

      • Black Cat loves Autumn! :)

        Does it come with Jelly? 🙂

  • Powerful winter storms of 2016

    well looks like the 1st rain event is set for next thursday in too the weekend

  • Dan weather maniac
    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      He needs a “Sierra Cement” email for these 2 upcoming storms. Good base snow to start up on Mammoth Mt. Hopefully a first October opening since the magical Fall of 04′.

  • Still looking like a very respectable early-season atmospheric river event for far NorCal later this week, with soaking rains for most of the northern half of the state. Planning on a blog update on Monday or Tuesday.

    • alanstorm

      2 day AR event = mid -Oct runoff for bone-dry watersheds!

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I hope this is a sign that Socal will get some rain in the near future.

      • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

        GFS control has been showing that tail of the second systems front not washing out like we’ve been so used to.

        Will be interesting to see it all progress…I think the upper level low under the HP right now is a big player in the evolution of the jet to get to central/southern Cal.

  • Barney
  • Quick question. What is the average rate of AR’s in the year past? It seems like they are yearly now.

    • RunningSprings6250

      They are indeed yearly, now that they’ve been given such a catchy name!

      • Pfirman

        Pineapple Express had some snap.

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      Aren’t AR’s a fairly normal feature?

  • alanstorm

    Anybody out Petaluma or Santa Rosa way right now? Really cool long cloud over SR last hour. Could see it from 37 Vallejo, turns out it’s over SR. Hasn’t moved or changed at all. Its really BIG, maybe 10-15 mi long.
    Thinking some sort of thermal updraft into cooler air.
    No, govt conspiracies, please https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/780c07c63fef420a833678132c14cf83ef5df80c209cd379cc0c837664af3eb9.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1e8599a5134769156ff87cef225652cccc81e2f59ebf39c17bea171998070b66.jpg

  • DelMarSD

    Really like what the GFS is showing for So Cal 9 days out. Hopefully it sticks for future runs.

    • yenlard

      Is a quarter of an inch too much to ask ?

      • Fairweathercactus

        Yes

        • Dan the Weatherman

          Even 0.01″ is too much to ask by the way the weather patterns have been behaving in Socal as of late. Hopefully this all changes very soon!

          • Fairweathercactus

            We almost never get a decent wind event or inside slider these days.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            The Santa Anas didn’t even come up at my house here in Orange last week when they were forecast. I was under a Wind Advisory with absolutely no wind to speak of, and this area is prone to Santa Ana winds, too.

          • FolsomPrisonBlues

            Quite honestly I think weather in SoCal is becoming much more unpredictable.

          • hermit crab

            Mostly hotter than normal, and drier than normal. Ok I’ve just put all the predictors out of business now, so they are welcome to come over for pizza.

    • Nathan

      EC ensemble shows much more insider track unfortunately

  • weathergeek100

    Beautiful bike ride today from Walnut creek to Danville and back. Some nice fall color out there. Hot but very dry of course so it’s tolerable exercise weather. As we were biking, we were staring at all the brown hills and getting excited for possible rain later this week to change that scenery. I really really hope it happens.

  • alanstorm

    90° today in Cloverdale & Ukiah

    • Pfirman

      As a kid visiting relatives outside of Cloverdale for big chunks of time, I can remember mornings of frost and afternoons of 100F and back to frost the next day this time of year.

      • alanstorm

        Don’t forget that distinct smell of the grape fields in summer

        • Pfirman

          I mostly remember tarweed.

  • Black Cat loves Autumn! :)
  • jstrahl

    Cleaned out my rain gauge today. If the late week event doesn’t happen, you know whom to blame. 🙂

    • inclinejj

      Don’t feel too bad. I cleaned mine out and put in fresh batteries the other day.

    • Pfirman

      Your ride still tarped?

      • jstrahl

        Un-tarped it so i could drive,:-) I got it down o a science, takes less than 5 minutes with big tarp and shock cords.

  • craig(Big Sur/Carmel Valley)
    • Seem to gone now. Have some pics of cirrus at right angles and a bunch of other weird stuff. Sun doggy stuff

  • FolsomPrisonBlues

    Welp…After 5 years of the one and done, we now have a 5 day storm hitting the Folsom area. Change is in the wind!

  • RunningSprings6250

    The most beautiful sunset I have ever seen tonight. The sun going below the cirrus cloud deck lighting it up from underneath left the entire western sky blazing with pinks, oranges, reds, purples – just incredible.

    And yes, no picture… ?

    • See my post, pic taken from Elysian Park. The cloud deck was optimal, and I was prepared with my big camera, too

  • Bombillo1

    I know this coming event is not doing a great deal for everyone but for us in extreme N. Cal this is quite unusual, even for us (if this verifies). Over 4.80 inches in 3.5 days will rank as one of the biggest storms of any time during the past 3 years, dead of winter or otherwise. This has to be good for the rest of the state in terms of subduing the ridge and clearing the decks https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f21340f241d4ac71f4a4b66424440711cc98d25558f9f2ecef3172f0971b34ad.png .

  • mattzweck
  • Powerful winter storms of 2016
    • Barney

      And those are just through Saturday. Looks like the Sunday-Monday surge has the potential to be potent as well. Forecast is even showing it ending with some colder air and lowering snow levels, though there are probably going to be 50 changes in the forecast the next 5 days or so.

      • Powerful winter storms of 2016

        yep i could see more or less rain depending on what models keep showing i hop this winter is even better then last winter i all so hoping for some good low snow events has we head in too the colder NOV DEC and JAN

      • FolsomPrisonBlues

        Thats just Sonora. Up a few hours in Folsom they are expecting a good 3 or so. I cannot remember the last time we have had a multi-day rain event!

        • Pfirman

          It’s only 80 miles by road from Sonora to Folsom, so that is a nice pay off. We will see.

        • Tuolumne

          “multi-day rain event”

          Huh???

          No comprende… those are illegal in California.

      • BRP (Ventura)

        Try and post a pic if you get any measurable snow, would really appreciate it, and it would make my Monday the 17th!

  • alanstorm

    Well, I for 1 was disappointed that neither candidate mentioned anyrhing about next weekend’s early fall AR event.

    • RunningSprings6250

      Well looks like I won’t be voting for either of those Jamokes then!

    • Bombillo1

      Outrageous. How out of touch, detached elitists.

    • Barney

      Trump says ARs aren’t real.

    • Yeah that bummed me out.

    • BRP (Ventura)

      LMAO!!! Excellent response to that wasted 2 hours of my life!

  • https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aa9222344626804b1cf4ecb125a23a394c41c95287fc2b942b2ed8edaed31020.jpg Here is that sunset stunner that an earlier poster didn’t have the opportunity to post

    • RunningSprings6250

      Yes! Amazing!

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    always high guy has it right. i’ve said it before……hope this is the last damn heat wave of the season https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f1f3e43cf45c5baa97b522b551aeb8f2d7e232e514c1ad59a9c5aff4534d7440.jpg

    • Pfirman

      I thought it was just going to be ‘it’.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • RunningSprings6250

      06z is an outliner. Let’s go 12z! LOL ?

  • A good shot of rain on January 4th based on Accuweather. Seems legit.

    • Charlie B

      I guess I should cancel the unplanned picnic with the friends I haven’t met.

  • Powerful winter storms of 2016

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service Sacramento CA
    300 AM PDT Mon Oct 10 2016

    The initial front Thu/Fri will be associated with a +3 NAEFS mean PW
    Standardized Anomaly with PWs from .75-1.25″ over the CWA…and a
    return interval of mainly 1 in every 5 years (a very small area of 1
    in every 10 years in our CWA). Thus, confidence is rather high of a
    significant early season rainfall event. With a second front
    forecast during the weekend…this one/two punch and possible
    subsequent systems early next week could bring the fire season to an
    end over portions of the CWA…mainly Mendocino… Shasta-Trinity…
    Plumas and Wrn Lassen NF areas. JHM

  • Powerful winter storms of 2016

    looks lke are rain event will be coming from SONGDA in the W PAC right now

    • Black Cat loves Autumn! :)

      2009 redux?

    • CHeden

      Missed your post about Songda while I was writing up my update above Didn’t intend on stepping on your comment.

  • Black Cat loves Autumn! :)
  • Powerful winter storms of 2016

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
    518 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2016

    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
    AND MONTEREY BAY AREA.

    .DAY ONE…MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT

    PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
    NEAR THE COAST ON MONDAY MORNING.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

    A POTENTIALLY STRONG AND WET PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
    SPREAD RAIN INTO THE NORTH BAY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE
    REMAINDER OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA ON FRIDAY. RAIN MAY REACH
    AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
    MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE NORTH BAY AND LOCALLY SOUTH OF THE
    GOLDEN GATE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
    WINDS ARE FORECAST LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IN
    ADDITION…LARGE OCEAN SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST FROM LATE
    THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN…AGAIN
    LOCALLY HEAVY…AND GUSTY WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

    HAZARDS FROM THESE STORM SYSTEMS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
    WEEKEND INCLUDE…

    * DRIVING HAZARDS: THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT
    OF THE SEASON. ACCUMULATED OIL ON ROAD SURFACES WILL RESULT IN
    SLICK ROADWAYS. IN ADDITION…AFTER SEVERAL MONTHS OF DRY
    WEATHER DRIVERS WILL BE UNACCUSTOMED TO DRIVING IN WET WEATHER
    WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR AUTOMOBILE ACCIDENTS.

    * FALLEN LEAVES AND DEBRIS IN ROADWAYS MAY LEAD TO CLOGGED STORM
    DRAINS…ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS. THIS COULD
    RESULT IN PONDING ON ROADWAYS…MAINLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND
    IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

    * WINDS: LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MAY BRING DOWN
    TREES AND POWER LINES AND RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES. STRONGEST
    WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HILLS AND ALONG THE COAST.

    * WAVES: LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BY
    LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
    HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE AND ON AREA BEACHES.

    PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATED
    WEATHER INFORMATION.

    this is all so looking like a wind event has well

  • CHeden

    In looking at this morning’s surface analysis over the Pacific, the major components of the expected AR later this week are starting to take shape. There are several items in the setup worthy of note: FIrst, there are twin cyclones spinning up in the Western GoA, with the one now over the tip of the Aleutions having a weak teleconnection with a quasi-stationary low that’s been hanging out for weeks now in the western Bering sea, NE of Kamchatka/eastern Siberia. The two GoA lows will then phase, resulting in a potent 963mb mega-low, with the EPac high getting squashed and displaced SW of the low. As the consolidated low starts to drift east, the ridge out ahead of the low (currently over the NEPac) will continue to dissipate as westerlies continue to strengthen and undercut the High. Secondly, the westerly flow is already present per WV and actually has been for many days as evidenced by a weak stationary front that’s had been aimed at Oregon but has now shifted south over NorCal. I believe it’s within this 100 mile wide zone that the most potent part of the AR will eventually setup, but it’s way to early to pin down exactly when given the probable undulations in the AR over the course of many days.
    And third, there is Songda. Songda is a typhoon that’s been hanging out at the western tip of high pressure over the west/cent Pacific for several days now…and is now starting to “turn the corner” and move clockwise NE around the sub-tropical High. Per the TPW graph, Songda is already throwing moisture into the southern edge of the westerlies as they fuel the developing GoA mega-low, and will continue to do so with increasing moisture over the next few days. Once Songda drifts far north, it gets adsorbed in the westerlies and starts moving east as a extra-tropical low and is now expected to re-deepen near the Pacific west coast around Saturday, then ride the coastline NNW and anchor up in the far NE GoA. As Songda’s remains go north up the coast, the parent GoA low will then cartwheel underneath towards the coast riding the juicy AR and should bring some possibly serious rains to portions of the PacNW coast with lesser amounts inland and south along along the northern Calif. coast. The main point is that as of this moment, there are a lot of things that have to come together for next weekend’s event to come down as we’re hoping, and plenty of wiggle room for things to change rather dramatically within a short time period.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/abcb314e3295c63a173a6bd431ea3ab27d4f8c96e336ff1f8601e7a2fb7970cf.gif

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f9e089b63d4d3828d496ab89acdc71105f5415ca139274fa7def98d9bde85929.jpg

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4e02ef5adb436aef51c1fcabfb9e2d8761e5447064745244abaf389bf469f1fa.gif https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3abea8ca378813200905a7f0c7ed1e638571244dc56a3d464afd59698ad1f599.png

    • Wow and now a remote possibility of a typhoon remnant. Thanks for update

      • CHeden

        Just wish there was more upper air support. I expect rainshadowing will create some wildly varying precip amounts depending on elevation and proximity to the coast.

      • CHeden

        Note that the “real” typhoon will be the GoA mega-low….which itself is expected to feature hurricane-force winds at it’s peak. Songda will be just frosting on the cake (but a lot of frosting).

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Haven’t had much talk about mega-lows in the GOA in a long time, we’re on a streak for changes this fall.

  • John Curtis

    As I predicted last summer, by October the table would be set for a wet year.

    • Boots

      Amazing prediction. You should start a blog!!

    • Bombillo1

      I am much better at looking backwards. Last October I was very uncomfortable with the lack of pattern change while everyone was rationalizing why that was meaningless. I am very pleased that, apparently, will not be the case this year. Then again I am a Charger fan and this whole thing may collapse at the last moment.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        It was very inactive last fall here in Socal for being such a strong El Nino. I remember some people on here downplaying the importance for a more active fall in general before the big rains hit in January, while I kept saying that something just didn’t feel right about the overall pattern.

        This month has been inactive so far in Socal, but it is much too early to tell anything as of yet, since it is only October 10. If the pattern becomes more active over the next week, then that would be a good start. If the action continues off and on into December, that would be a very positive trend.

  • Barney

    One heck of a Bullseye, even if they only get half of that. I think Mt Shasta will get some big time snow this week to start building their snowpack. Does anybody have any thoughts about these systems in the Northwest churning around the warm water (blob)? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7fb283f3bb24bf899aaca6508286e2a8a21695c04bfeab449a5157bfa14539b1.png

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      This morning on KTVU Steve Paulson mentioned the S word…Snow for the Sierra in the 2nd round of storms Sunday/Monday. I do believe winter is coming…

    • Powerful winter storms of 2016

      snow levels will be vary high with this event so any snow will be 9,000 too 10,000ft

      • Barney

        Those levels are fine for Mt Shasta.

    • matthew

      Time to start putting away the deck furniture. Damn…more chores for the list!

      • Barney

        I got mine done yesterday! Spent half the day winterizing the house. Though it’s a losing battle we’ve got one drafty cabin and it’s getting close to the time of year when our neighborhood doesn’t see the sun for 5 months.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          That always added to the touch of living in the Sierra foothills, the low sun angle used to help keep our house generally shaded in the winter, and kept snow around a little longer some days.

          • Barney

            I hear you. My neighborhood is actually dubbed “little Siberia”. It’s amazing how little sun we get in the winter as we are butted up right against the crest and the sun sits behind it most of the day. The benefit is we get a lot more snow than even central Truckee, the negative is that we get a lot more snow than even central Truckee. Last year was fun, but if it is a Big winter I’ll be buried.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            It’s even sweeter when Spring comes and you begin to notice things in your house shining that were dark all winter and sounds like you kind of just have to deal with it when it hits am I right?

    • Interestingly the EU wants to paste the central Sierra with over two feet. Shasta locals probably have a better handle there, I guess.
      Snow levels may be high for Shasta. GFS is showing temps kinda warm when the AR hits there.

      • CHeden

        That’s an impressive 8-10″ of liquid equivalent Sierra-cement wise.
        With so much water, ideally we’d like a cold snap to follow the AR to help lock in the moisture.

      • Barney

        Yeah I’m seeing a chance for snow even in Truckee for Monday. Point forecast for Shasta at 12K is all snow for several days. Either way the northern part of the state should get some water.

    • CHeden

      Good question. Won’t really know for a few weeks if any serious damage to the blob occurred. While IMHO there should be ample wind for some evaporative cooling and mixing in the upper layers of the ocean due to upwelling, the mean flow at the surface is still rather warm/zonal…plus, where the exact location of low pressure in the NE GoA eventually sets up (long range) will dictate whether cold air will get pulled south over the “blob-zone”, or warm air/water gets pulled/pushed up from the SW to re-inforce the blob….or the blob cools because it is covered in clouds..perhaps nothing happens.
      So, other than that, I really don’t have a clue.

      • Barney

        Thanks for the response! Yeah I need an Idiot’s Guide to understanding this stuff.

        • Pfirman

          If you find one, please share.

          • Barney

            Lets write one?

    • Bombillo1

      Crescent City looks like the bullseye within the bullseye. Those folks may not see a full sunny day for 6 months. The downside of having a bullseye painted on your rear end.

    • RunningSprings6250

      I think i’ll take an early vacation right underneath that 18.5″.

      And look at that new color scheme! Pink on top! LOL

    • Nathan

      This looks like a classic Al Tahoe Gets Screwed setup

      • AlTahoe

        AS long as I get some rain to tap down the dust and Pine Pollen, that is all I need 🙂 It would be nice to extend the Mt Bike season into early Nov with nice sticky mud.

        • Barney

          That’s what I’m hoping for too. Trails should be great for a couple weeks after a good rain.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Newest trend is the ridge might be just enough to keep LA County dry. The classic flow where San Diego and South Orange County could pick up some very light rain but the rest of So Cal will be stuck right in the middle.

    Also confidence is growing as I said a few days ago on a big ridge towards the end of the month.

    • Barney

      Houses are cheap in the Bulls eye zone I posted below.

      • Bombillo1

        That is quite true. An additional bonus is that you get to listen to banjo music often.

    • gray whale

      i truly do not believe any self-respecting forecaster would go on record saying that “confidence was growing” in a weather event 21 days into the future. so i don’t know where you got that from.

  • weathergeek100

    There were two children debating about stupid things last night on TV (apparently, they’re running for PRESIDENT?!?!), and I just decided to look at the NWS forecasts….getting excited for rain….and yes….weather west of course. This blog is my daily fix (especially when the weather becomes interesting).

    • jstrahl

      “Climate change” was mentioned just once. Not discussed, mentioned!

  • weathergeek100

    How common is it for an AR to be the first winter storm of the season? I feel like this is quite rare for October….unless we’re talking about the influence of a former typhoon.

    • jstrahl

      Pretty rare, i can think of ’62. There have been big storms in October to start the season, e.g. ’82, ’92, ’09, but those were one day storms, not AR.

      • GR

        I remember 62 vividly because it coincided with a Giants-Yankees World Series. It was some rainy period, going on for days. A little earlier in the month than this forecast, and further south, and very, very wet.

        • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

          I believe there’s a famous picture of a SFPD helicopter flying over The ‘Stick trying to dry the field during the delay in the WS.

        • alanstorm

          Columbus Day Storm of ’62? That one was historic. Remnants of Freda, 130 mph winds on Oregon Coast, basically a cat 3!
          I wouldn’t remember because I wasn’t born yet

      • CHeden

        The 1972 A’s had a hail-out during the ’72 series. This was only one of several wet Oct. events that year in the Bay Area. I remember it well…was up on Skyline above Woodside and the cell over the east Bay was awesome…plus later had some nearby C-G just off the road down by Saratoga.

        • Oct 17th was the ‘hail-out’ date 🙂

          • CHeden

            Yup….that’s the one. One of the craziest days for weather I ever saw in the Bay Area.

        • Tuolumne

          I thought this storm was a stalled-out low that remained over the Bay Area for close to a week. I don’t recall it being anything like an AR (in reference to the OP); it was more of a cold GOA storm.

          • CHeden

            You are correct. There were several bands of precip spaced out over a week just as you recalled that kept ejecting from the cut-off off San Francisco, and because of the cold air aloft, quite convective. Totally different from an AR, fer sure.

        • craig(Big Sur/Carmel Valley)

          Those Oct ’72 storms were very dynamic. Very intense downpour created large debris flows in Big Sur area b/c of a scorching fire in the area that year created onebad burn scar with nothing to hold down the soils. I barely recall the event as I was only about 18 inches tall back then 😉

      • CHeden

        Since 1939, Half Moon Bay has had 21 years where > 1″ of rain fell in a single 24hr period during October….and 5 years where 2+” fell. Those were pretty decent storms. http://weather-warehouse.com/WeatherHistory/PastWeatherData_HalfMoonBay_HalfMoonBay_CA_October.html

        • jstrahl

          I started measuring rainfall in April ’91. Since then, i’ve measured 1.97 inches in 24 hours only three times: 1992 and 2009 are clearcut, 1991 had a storm which dropped over 2 inches between 5PM Friday the 25th and 5PM Sat the 26th, the storm during which Bill Graham and two others died in a helicopter crash. In ’82 ’72and ’69, came close, though it’s possible an altered 24 hour period could show that. And then there’s ’62,

    • Thunderstorm

      October 2007 was the biggest storm for the entire season. Hopefully not the same this season.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    I’ll be staying up to watch this system come in friday morning, this looks wicked even if it’s far north. I was also noting with CHeden’s recent analysis, it’s been awhile since we’ve seen some seriously super strong, cold storms hit the west coast, last year it was generally warm AR events drenching the PNW and parts of far NorCal. I wonder what our chances of seeing the Bering Sea bombs return this are… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f1dfe6afec41c86ca139d0acd3f564e5ec7d1f3693c2b73eb0392f5f7502fbc2.png

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Also to note, today there will be a notable increase in upper-level and mid-level clouds across much of the state as a little disturbance embedded in the 600-500mb range is moving towards the central coast this morning, the funny thing is I noted this disturbance some days ago and it kind of was a blip in the runs that there would be the slight chance of isolated thunderstorms this evening. Initially the disturbance would propagate towards the central and socal coasts with increasing PWATS from the SE, but it was a little trend before disappearing, weirdly it seems today is showing there actually was a little something poised to move through as there are visible signs outside and SR models are also showing this clip move through. Oxnard NWS/LA is even hinting at a chance of a shower moving over SLO later today/evening, though they have lowered chances in the last hour to 15%. Interestingly enough the skies are getting increasingly cloudier here over the Oxnard basin and also the local mountains are beginning to see some cumulus pops. It’s a pleasant little surprise, but it will make for a great picturesque day, I have also noted the familiar flow pattern in which precedes the pattern all of us have our eyes on it, it’s the same flow pattern we always used to see back in the day before some big ones would roll through somewhere along our state’s coastline. A very welcoming and comforting feeling to say the least. The latest AFD is also quite encouraging with the upcoming pattern change in the north.

      Area forecast discussion
      National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California
      926 am PDT Monday Oct 10 2016

      Synopsis…

      A couple of weak upper level troughs will move through the area
      early this week, resulting in an increase in marine layer cloud
      coverage and below normal temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday.
      Slight warming is possible for Thursday as a small ridge briefly
      develops. Weak frontal systems may bring isolated showers to parts
      of the area between late this week and early next week.
      &&

      Short term…(tdy-wed)

      Upper level moisture ahead of a weak short wave near 32n/130w
      will drift over the area today. The impulse will move over the
      area late tonight, though models are very dry below 600mb and
      really don’t see any real chances for precip outside of maybe a
      sprinkle at best over the higher mountains. So pops have been
      lowered under 15% and precip removed from the forecast.

      Pressure gradients are trending onshore ahead of that short wave
      and low clouds a little more prevalent along the coast north and
      west of la County. Temps today should be cooler in all areas by
      5-10 degrees.

      Cooling trend will continue Tuesday with slightly better low cloud
      coverage in the morning.

      ***From previous discussion***

      More weak troffing on tap for Wednesday and this will produce a
      morning stratus deck that will cover the coasts and most of the
      vlys. Wednesday will be the coolest of the next 7 with Max temps
      running 3 to 6 degrees blo seasonal norms.

      Long term…(thu-sun)

      Both the GFS and ec agree that a Little Ridge will pop up on
      Thursday. It will squash the marine layer a little bit and most of
      the vlys will be clear. Max temps will rise 3 to 5 degrees.

      The Friday through Sunday period will be dominated by a large pac
      northwest upper low which will slam into Washington and or and bring quite a bit
      of rain to those areas. Nothing so dramatic down here flat fast
      moving zonal flow will set up across the area. Mid and high level
      clouds embedded in the flow will bring partly ocnl mostly cloudy
      skies to the area through the period. Hgts fall to 582 dm on
      Friday and do not budge through Sunday. Max temps will be a degree
      or two blo normal and will change little day to day.

      A weak trof will try to move into the area Friday afternoon and
      will bring a slight chc of rain to the central coast north of slo-
      town. Any precip Sat and sun. Should be to the north and west of
      slo County.

      A bigger better trof might move into the area late Sunday or Monday.
      Day 8 forecasts should never be trusted but if this trof does come
      to pass there will be a chance of rain across the entire area on
      Monday. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c554409558bcc91b1928e640d5dafc2e688057a04138ae30d318026b4773860b.png

      • Dan the Weatherman

        San Diego NWS is finally mentioning the possibility of a pattern change for next week:

        For Friday through next weekend…a mid-latitude
        trough of low pressure over the eastern Pacific will gradually
        progress inland into the western states with a spread in timing
        and strength among the global models with individual shortwaves
        within this pattern. For Southern California…this will bring
        slow cooling with a marine layer deep enough for night and morning coastal low clouds and patchy fog to spread into portions of the inland valleys. For early next week…there is the potential for one of these shortwaves to bring a chance of precipitation to Southern California.

        • thlnk3r

          I would expect a decent warm-up combined with a Santa Ana next week. It’s been on tap per the GFS/Euro the past couple of days. Let’s hope the models are wrong!

          • Dan the Weatherman

            They now are indicating a possible strong Santa Ana event later next week after a storm passes through early in the week. Whether the storm brings any rain to Socal is still in question, as it is beginning to sound more like an inside slider.

      • I put my rain gauge out today. I hope it gets some H2O in it.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Once that thing is done churning up the waters in that area, it should put an end to the “Blob” talk for a while. +SSTA’s are already fading there, and a strong system like this will work it over quite well. Hopefully we’ll be seeing lots of more of these this season.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        I’m pretty sick and tired of that damn thing, so I’ll be glad it’s demise is near. I hope these bombers make it south and deepen while inbound… It’s been so long since we got hit with a real gnarly winter storm. You know what I mean, a storm that actually worries people around here lol.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          Yup, I remember those. I miss them. Hopefully we see some this year. A repeat of the last 4 seasons would be a disaster.

    • CHeden

      Hmmm..heights expected to fall to ~522dm by Sunday. Hope Craig M. is hungry!!!
      LoL !!!!!!!

      • He’s fasting and has a leather hat marinating. He’s ready for almost anything

      • craig(Big Sur/Carmel Valley)

        Serve it up!!!

  • yenlard

    12z squashed So Cal into dry tumbleweeds again

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    We’re coming up on the 25th anniversary of one of the worst fires the state ever saw, the Oakland Hills Firestorm. A nice recap from Jan Null at GGWS looking back to when he was the lead forecaster for the NWS Bay Area office. I vividly remember the smoke rising above the East Bay Hills and even seeing a glow once the sun went down looking West towards the hills from the Mt. Diablo area. I also remember the sounds of the winds blowing early that morning before the fire started (or rekindled).

    http://ggweather.com/firestorm/

    • Tuolumne

      My father was sailing on the bay and found singed eucalyptus leaves raining down on his boat from miles away while he watched the firestorm develop in the hills.

      I was in Anderson in Shasta County and that night it was unusually windy and warm. My roommate showed me the footage on the news, and not being familiar with Bay Area geography asked if I was going to call my parents in Fremont to see if they were OK.

    • Charlie B

      I remember watching the Forty-Niners play the Lions on TV that day. (35-3 Niners, with Steve Young throwing for 2 td’s and the defense holding the great Barry Sanders to 26 yards on 7 carries.) The teams played on as ash fell on the field, and the cameras would periodically focus on the fire across the bay.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Strangest random group of cumulus clouds moving over my neck of the woods this morning showing up on VIS SAT https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c7c4bb0f24438085a9f8c4afab4a2bd3154bf5e184768c8312beab7eec96266c.jpg .

    • Someone else

      There cannot possibly be a valid scientific explanation for this!
      The pattern reminds me of a certain antennae array layout, they must have forgotten to turn on the randomizer to mask the signal pattern.

      Weather is happening!

  • alanstorm

    Incredible precip totals on the 6 day forecast.
    1″-4″ for Sacramento R watershed?
    5″-7″ for Del Snort Co.?
    3″-4″ for Mendocino Co?
    WOW. This will give significant rises to all North coastal rivers & streams, believe it or not.
    Should be a precip record for date if it comes to pass.
    Also, GFS showing rain extending to So Cal by Tues, so I suspect tomorrow’s 6 day will show that.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9d2191a438f168ffcf638478ba95fb566e63d4d7818df2f3830b9806c5efb0e8.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3775b0aef5566cec3fb50cb374d97647695ea6d5bb010837bff4dabeff020f85.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6386208898fac3cc75bd5723bb5de8b8e520a68cbb9057424f3a21d526c1c3b8.jpg

    • jeff anon

      NWS LA is actually calling for the strongest santa ana of the season starting monday, still way to early to know but i think the rain wont make it very far south.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        NWS SD is also calling for a strong Santa Ana event for late next week, and now only mention a few possible light showers for Monday generated by the deepening of the marine layer. This sounds like a typical fall inside-slider pattern. I really hope for a more decent shot at rain before a strong Santa Ana comes up, because the fire danger is going to go through the roof if that wind event verifies.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        ‘Tis the season.

    • Barney

      Hey now I know where Weaverville is! Had some missed calls from there on my phone last week, no clue why. I think we can add on to these totals whatever happens Sunday night – Monday too?

  • Mike

    Picture taken over the San Bernardino valley an hour ago. Fallstreak Hole? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eeb083e4ef79c6b5d2573f941e218735b5196cbb70d0c2ec9761065a87a4ab14.jpg

    • Looks like it!

    • Pfirman

      Nice catch. And weird. I had to look it up as I had never heard of these, let alone seen them.

    • Dan weather maniac

      Blog update!!!!!!!!

  • weathergeek100

    NWS giving the ‘Rain’ and ‘rain likely’ wording for the bay area later this week. Urban areas exceeding an inch of rain. LET THE GREENING OF THE HILLS BEGIN!!!

    • Patrick McGuire

      I live in Stockton and it looks like the central valley is going to get pounded too, especially in the 2nd wave. The GFS runs of late are all pretty consistent that way now. Hope it continues……

  • shampeon

    Interesting article about how bird populations inhabit burn scars. Quotes my friend’s brother.
    http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-wildfire-bird-diversity-20161007-snap-story.html

  • Pacifica weather observer
  • Fairweathercactus

    Growing up here in Whittier still quite a few homes that have acorn trees. My house has one of them. I have always herd living here that in fall if the trees would have a lot of them it was a signal for a lot of rain in the winter. Last year we had hardly any and the tree was right as we had little rain in So Cal. This year it has even less. So we will see.

    I do remember as a kid the fall before the big El Nino 1997 and it had a ton of them. The most that I ever remember and it was exactly right.

    • A few of us debunked that theory a few years ago. Keep the sunny side up!

      • J Tang

        For the first time in my life I collected over 80 acorns (my bag couldn’t fit more…) 3 weeks ago from Evergreen College/Montgomery Park.

        Planted them in the soil and 2 have already rooted successfully and healthily!

        Whether rain-related or not, I think in 2 years I will have a crop of Quercus lobata to donate to the greater San Jose area…!

        You want one?

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      I think 4 years of drought may have something to do with reduced acorn production, as opposed to reduced acorn production heralding continued drought.

    • Joey B. (Lafayette)

      “Annual differences in acorn crop size of California oaks do not correlate with rainfall the year before, but instead with weather conditions favorable for pollination and, in two species, rainfall 1 and 2 years prior to acorn fall. ”
      http://calag.ucanr.edu/Archive/?article=ca.v049n05p7

    • RunningSprings6250

      We have the most acorns on our Oak trees this year than we’ve had in years – and they’re huge too.

  • Barney

    Another good outlook, I think there are going to be some very impressive totals in a few spots. Already a Special Weather statement out of Reno. Sounds like the winds are going to be raging. I’m expecting a power outage here. My first four or five winters here you’d expect multiple power outages per season, not so much the past several. Hopefully a hood sign of powerful storms to come. Can anyone tell me if the the Euro is also depicting a pretty big rain shadow just east of the crest? GFS still has respectable totals, but a noticeable drop off. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f8f426aa1dd00fba6a9898833f771d16a06f5cc8bd0aa95527a42227317a2164.png

    • StormHiker

      Where is the crest?

      • Barney

        Let’s save that discussion for BA, it’s about that time of year again…

      • Crouching Dallas

        DRINK!

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          The crouch is on!

    • Stereolab

      A big mid-October California storm that doesn’t disappear within the 5-day? Could this be the return of… normality?

  • CHeden

    Here’s the NCEP surface analysis for Friday. Seems they’re totally on board with the Songda remnant low starting to bomb out near 150W before plowing towards the NW coast. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eb7f5b3fbb00df5ff9624c7beaac603f5fb603cec2e294c42e584193ca653f59.gif

    • Vector wind is amazing looking at GFS

      • craig(Big Sur/Carmel Valley)

        Gonna be some amazing surf outta this…

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      This has got me so excited lol…

    • Rainmaker (San Jose)

      A Songda remnant low? Every day there is something new to weather

    • Bombillo1

      unusually zonal movement over the PAC?

  • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

    Excited to live vicariously through our WW friends in Nor Cal for the first meaningful rain event later in the week. A great sunset tonight again. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4007ab5a6191e76d64e09de291f3cc4f0fbb1518ae88f995210e37e8e446f917.jpg

  • WanderingTattler

    Climate Change Blamed for Half of Increased Forest Fire Danger

    The study uses “fuel aridity,” or dryness of the climate and the forests, as a way to measure the influence of climate change on forest fires. The combination of a long period of drought in the West and hot temperatures have caused trees and undergrowth to become particularly tinderlike. Warmer air can draw more moisture, in general, from trees and plants, turning them into kindling.

    The scientists used the dryness of the climate to determine the dryness of the forests themselves, using eight metrics that corresponded with fuel dryness and fire danger, said A. Park Williams, one of the study’s authors and an assistant research professor at Columbia’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.

    The authors found that fuel aridity in a given year has a direct relationship with the forest fire area, and that climate change accounts for 55 percent of the increased aridity from 1979 to 2015. Cyclical climate variations would have dried out the landscape some, but human-caused climate change on top of those patterns caused this drying process to double.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/11/science/climate-change-forest-fires.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FGlobal%20Warming&action=click&contentCollection=science&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=collection&_r=0

    • FolsomPrisonBlues

      While that is partially true, most of the fires started are due to idiots that start them. Either people that start illegal campfires, or people that intentionally or no do stupid things. Most CA fires are people started, not climate started. I do believe in climate change heavily, but fires to be honest, are usually due to plainly dumb people.

      • Pfirman

        There is a difference between responsibility for ‘half the forest fires’ and ‘half the forest fire danger’.

  • Someone else
    • flyboy45

      Its a “con” for condensation trail. The usual products from the combustion of hydrocarbons are water and CO2 both of which freeze at high altitude, no “chemicals.”

  • TruckeeLover

    Great color up Bishop creek today and some interesting clouds. Fall has https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7e40e49dfc1085027455b214b5925bff9fe7a78cb166e6df2a25cf9fc9deb819.jpg surely arrived.

    • Nathan

      Wonderful

    • StormHiker

      Gorgeous shot!

  • Peavine Violet
    • Barney

      Holy Crap

    • Bombillo1

      How did the POP map get projected onto the sky? Is God posting again?

      • Dan the Weatherman

        I don’t see any type of map in the sky on those pics, just clouds of varying color.

        • Bombillo1

          Dan, you are supposed to smile my friend…

    • Brentwood_NorCal

      Whoa! That needs to be in a frame. Fantastic shot.

  • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

    Surprise lightning show in Santa Maria right now. Whoa…

  • Powerful winter storms of 2016

    am starting too think that SONGDA could be more S and W and head right in too CA if that happens we could end up with a even heavy rain event and a damgeing wind event for all area

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/rb-animated.gif

    the 1st wave is not part of SONGDA has it still in the W PAC that 1st pice looks like it could move right in two CA so we need too keep a eye on this event and see this how far S this event gos has we could see more rain and wind then what models are thinking right now

    • AlTahoe

      Those GOA bombs almost always end up going straight north once they get near the west coast of Oregon or Washington. It would be awesome if it didn’t but pretty unlikely.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Not the case with this setup fortunately.

  • Barney

    Ok thanks I’ll try to swing by and get them.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Wait Barney, do you control the weather? Can you actually swing by the GOA and pick up the rain and the wind??

    • RunningSprings6250

      There’s got to be a meme for this:

      When you’re on WW so much, you use it to text your Mom.

      ?

      • Charlie B

        It’s like a Geico commercial.

      • Barney

        Oops I just caught this. Copy and pasted a text I think, not even sure how that happened. Luckily it wasn’t too personal, I would’ve had to change identities again.

    • Charlie B

      Eggs, check.
      Bread, check.
      Bacon, check.
      Umbrella, check.

  • CHeden

    Here’s a little Tidbit (both literally and figuratively): by Sunday, the “SONGDA bomb” will be off the far NW coast with an estimated pressure of 957mb, or 28.3″ of mercury! By comparison, Hurricane Matthew had a 968mb pressure while still a Cat3. Also of note is the post-tropical remains of Nicole which will be undergoing a rapid deepening off the Newfoundland coast… but despite the impressive structure and strong pressure gradient, will bottom out at only 961mb. The SONGDA bomb is indeed something to keep a close eye on. Would not be surprised to hear of 100mph+ gusts along the far PacNW coast nearest the center. Note: as with Matthew, we have an analogous situation in that minor adjustments to the track of the SONGDA bomb could have significant impacts to coastal and mountain areas in terms of both wind and precip. Obviously, the potential for major travel and safety impacts exists..and people should be aware that this system will be highly dynamic and rapid changes in strength and location are a distinct possibility.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/84232f315094c836d2d1d7820a9f2e5c1386450eb490b481da4ea7655800af47.png

    • This is extraordinary. The precip pattern looks like La Nina on steroids which come to think of it would probably be pretty ugly looking.

      • jstrahl

        Is this weekend’s storm off the forecast now?

        • Pfirman

          I don’t think so. Was just looking up what SONGDA was only to find it is a typhoon and we are to experience some remnants. Typhoon Songda, not some new acronym, heh.
          Anyway, I found the following tantalizing and can just say, ‘oh, please’.

          “Wednesday Night: A steady period of rain develops from west to east across Washington, central and western Oregon and northwest California.

          Thursday-Friday:
          Rain will fall across Washington, Oregon, northern and central
          California, Idaho, northern Nevada, western Montana, western Wyoming and
          northern Utah. Some very high-elevation snow is also possible from the
          Cascades (above pass level) into the northern Rockies. Gusty winds will
          impact the immediate coast and the mountains.

          Saturday-Sunday:
          Periods of rain can be expected across Washington, Oregon, northern and
          central California, Idaho, northern Nevada, western Montana, western
          Wyoming and northern Utah. Some higher-elevation snow is also possible
          in the mountains of Idaho, western Montana and western Wyoming, as well
          as the highest elevations of the Cascades and the northern Sierra
          Nevada. Once again, strong winds are expected, especially near the coast
          and over higher elevations.”

        • CHeden

          The first system can be seen on VIS satellite already well SE of the Aleutians and driving to the WSW. The second system (Songda) is still well east of the dateline and is probably not showing up yet on the charts your looking at.

          • jstrahl

            Thanks, wasn’t looking at any charts, only at Xerophobe’s remark. 🙂

        • I’m sorry, my personal bias with steroids and physical appearance (ugly but strong). La Nina pattern generally cuts off precip at the south of NorCal. It’s ramped up big time IMO for a similar pattern of precip with this series of storms.

      • CHeden

        I would tend to agree given the jet’s location and long-fetch W-E orientation….both hallmarks of a La Nina pattern. While I like the fact we will be getting some badly needed precip, these type of patterns in the long run generally go in two different directions, IMHO: Pacific energy drives W-E across the west coast with waves/imbedded storms intermixed with occasional AR’s…mostly north of the immediate Bay Area, with the North Bay being a very wet exception…or two: a split flow develops off the coast and storms veer either to the south or north leaving most of Calif dry. The exception would be SoCal, as they can sometimes benefit from a split flow to the north which directs storms south before ejecting east underneath the high.
        Interesting that both scenario’s are present within the GFS LR. After this upcoming AR/zonal event(s) are over by Wed. next week, the Pacific settles down a bit until a new mid-latitude storm approaches the coast but then stalls out/drifts SSW well off the coast. Will be interesting to note which/any scenario pans out by the end of Oct. Usually by November, the early rainy season has revealed itself in some detail, and if a split flow pattern does develop, we should start seeing it by then (again, IMHO of course).

        • My tea leaves see below average after this big event. Agree with your patterns of precip for CA this winter.

          • gray whale

            FWIW i’d agree, mostly due to the northerly jet track being less predictable for CA and moreso that the jet looks to fall apart after this burst. it’s funny that it has a real MJO vibe to it, temporally speaking, even though (as I’m sure you know) we’re very much in the COD. The GEFS is starting to pick up signs of a stronger signal soon, though, albeit in phase 8/1. will be interesting to see if it stays strong in the active phase as it globetrots to the east.

            anyway, Positive Parrot says some solace can be taken from the possibility that this event may leave us well above average. in pville we’re slated for twice October’s avg precip with this storm, so if that comes to pass we’ll have some in the bank.

          • MJO…even though it’s in the COD it has relevance especially in a +/- weak ENSO. By end of week the “”CFS”” MJO forecast is for a passage through phase 8. During this time of year in this part of October the composite height anomalies and circulation is favorable.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          It might be selfish, but I’m looking for that split flow pattern more this season than anything… But I want everyone in on the mix, both jets coinciding around the NPAC high and converging off our coast. From 100% memory that was the best setup for us… A single jet formed from the STJ and PJS riding moisture ladden subtropical air into colder undeveloped systems from the north. The storms I believe associated with the pattern I speak of are the ones similar to a setup we saw last year where the 2 jets actually did meet up off our coast creating a strong baroclinic leaf… If we could get some of those systems where they form just 500 miles off the coast with the subpolar belt whipping the PJS further south into the lower latitudes it would make for an explosive stormy pattern especially for coastal communities and the Sierra’s however with that set up we’d likely see some serious shadowing along the crest. I find it funny this could actually happen with the current flow patterns starting to show as we get deeper into fall. Plus think about how much more time the system has to develop moving over the state instead of decaying on approach. Orographics would be the fly in the ointment indeed.

    • William_LeGro

      Thanks for this – has a major impact on me right now. I saw the forecast for Thursday-Sunday on weather.com but this really makes it clear. We’re in Eugene, had plans to drive to Vancouver WA on Wednesday, then over to the coast and south to Eureka on Thursday, continue down the coast to Point Arena region on Friday-Saturday. This storm makes it seem like we have to change our plans. Maybe wait it out in Eugene till Saturday and just take the 5 back down to LA – boring but at least not 30mph on a narrow, winding coast road with multiple stops for road work where the highway is falling into the ocean.

      • RunningSprings6250

        I say risk it 🙂

        • William_LeGro

          I should have said that the issue isn’t driving in rain itself – it’s that traffic slows way down, and we’re supposed to be back in LA on Monday. We came up the coast to Crescent City, and 101 had several spots where the road had fallen down the cliffs and it was down to one lane with traffic signals regulating the flow. If things are too slow, then we risk missing our deadline for returning to LA.

          • RunningSprings6250

            Yea those areas sucked when I did the same thing rushing back south after spending too much time too far north lol

      • alanstorm

        The second wave on Saturday is supposed to be the stronger of the 2. Thurs should be ok, just the ramping-up according to NWS Eureka

      • CHeden

        Saturday is the best travel day..but”best” is relative. I have to go back to the Bay Area this weekend, and early Saturday is when I plan to travel.

    • AlTahoe

      Reno NWS has been calling for damaging winds up here and in the Reno Carson area for a couple of days now. High wind warnings went out already with Rig top gust expected to be well over 100mph. Since it will be a warm storm I might have to try and pedal up to Star lake to get into some that high wind action this weekend.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        looks like it won’t be a good time to drive along 395 in the Washoe Valley (if it’s even open). The wind comes off Rose and really gets rolling through there.

        • AlTahoe

          Yeah that bridge that goes over the canyon usually gets the highest winds. They will reroute trucks to the old road at the bottom for sure.

      • CHeden

        Good call on their part. Yes, I can see where the downslope winds could be excessive due to a low-level jet being overhead. Cyclonic 100mph on the coast is a different sort of beast, though. Good thing the models have the bomb’s core staying well north and west of Calif…..things could be even (whole lot) worse were the bomb to push closer to the coast.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Damaging winds, heavy rains and a super low… AH it sounds almost like an old forecast 😉

      • Charlie B

        I’m flying out of Reno early Friday. Can’t wait.

        • Pfirman

          You might not even need a plane.

        • matthew

          Flying out usually is not too bad. Landing in that type of wind can be a real adventure though as the pilot crab-walks the plane onto the runway.

          • Charlie B

            I remember flying into Reno one summer afternoon during a thunderstorm. The pilot tried twice to land and then gave up and went over to Sacramento to wait it out.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            Sounds like this could be one of those classic Reno blowouts my grandparents and family used to talk about back in the day.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      What I find crazy is this actually used to be a more common occurrence, or at least I’m pretty sure we used to get these big bombers hitting the PNW much more often and then eventually the stragglers would start sliding south with the season’s occasional aleutian bomb bringing us a good classic stormy night and morning before giving way to some smaller colder systems in it’s wake. I’m just reminiscing I suppose.

      • CHeden

        Well, remember last year Seattle got kitty-whumped to the tune of near record rains…but regardless, powerful GoA storms off the NW coast have been in short supply for the last many years with the main breeding zone for storms being way too far west. That the GoA..especially in the north and NE looks to remain pretty much cyclonic for the foreseeable future, perhaps we’re seeing a return to the more turbulent conditions that were typical “back in the day”? A good thing anyway to keep in the back of our minds when looking at the future setups.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Truly for awhile last year looked a lot more like La Niña than anything, when it came down to talking about where the precipitation actually fell during the season. When you say a return to, “more turbulent conditions.” What are those conditions you speak of?

    • I’m renaming it to “Snogda’ once it passes the Dateline

  • RunningSprings6250

    Wife wanted to go driving for fall colors – I told her just look up! LOL! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b3c4639df6d59b21bf7d4359441febb1a789f7b341db5829b3b86982ec1496f4.jpg

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Weak on what scale?

    Area forecast discussion
    National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California
    920 am PDT Tuesday Oct 11 2016

    Long term…(fri-mon)

    Friday through Sunday a large storm system will slam into the pac
    northwest. Its flow pattern will cover the entire western US but the bulk
    of the rain will stay north of the Bay area.

    Two weak fronts will rotate into the area one later Friday and
    another later Sunday. Both look fairly weak and do not contain
    much moisture. The ec is the more aggressive mdl…bringing rain
    to the central coast from late Friday afternoon all the way
    through the weekend. While the weaker GFS brings just two 6 hours
    period of rain to slo County later Friday and again later Sunday.
    Given the relatively high 582 dm hgts it looks like the drier GFS
    may be the way to go. Broad brushed in some slight chc pops across
    the central coast to account for timing differences and the wetter
    ec. People have to remember that a 20 percent chc of rain is the
    same thing as an 80 percent chc of no rain. Rainfall if any will
    be insignificant. There will be plenty of clouds embedded in the
    fast moving west flow and skies will be at best partly cloudy and
    often times mostly cloudy. Max temps will cool some Friday and
    Saturday and then warm a little Sunday but over all there will not
    be too much temps changes through the period.

    There will be decent clearing Monday behind the front along with
    some hgt rises and look for a pleasant day with a warming trend.

    Peering deeper into the future it looks like the rest of next week
    will be on the breezy side first with north winds and then with
    northeast.

    • yenlard

      It’s Oxnard….what did you expect?

      • Pfirman

        Aka, Oxdarn..

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        I know this office can be pessimistic as hell, but it would be much more unprofessional to call this atmospheric river event weak and then to still use the same term for the same system that has potential to bomb out at 933mb…

        • thlnk3r

          Don’t worry…you won’t be disappointed with next week’s Santa Ana event 😉

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            I already stated I’ll take all the wind this season in the sake we all receive heavy winter precipitation.

        • It’s not “pessimism.” It’s the reality for the area they’re forecasting.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            It used to be, if that, when we could actually forecast weather in this region, quite frankly they seem to be in the lead for top drought forecasters and best IMO suited for our new climate regime lmao…

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Remember, Oxnard NWS forecasts for a particular area. Accordingly, they provide statements that sound pessimistic based on the facts these storms will not affect our region. It does tend to get frustrating to read the AFD’s when we’re in a drought with no rain in our immediate future but I would rather they be more “skeptical” about our chances for precip than go hog wild and predict rain and not get any. JMHO.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Of course I understand that, but the fact that they are using the term weak lol. It just cracks me up.

        • Cactusman

          As he said, they are forecasting for a particular region. We are going to have weak impacts from this event, thus that is why I believe that they used the term weak.It wouldn’t make sense if they used the term “strong”.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            I understand what counties they are forecasting for. I just don’t understand why they would say something like this. It just beats the dead horse even more for us around here, these storm systems may be weak for us in the south, but different story once you get passed SAC is what I’m saying and they are just shrugging it off as weak.
            “Two WEAK fronts will rotate into the area one later Friday and another later Sunday. Both look fairly WEAK and do not contain much moisture.”

          • Cactusman

            Those people up north shouldn’t be reading our forecast discussions 😉 I am sure that other forecast discussions up north are using the terms “strong”

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            I guess I took “into the area” out of context, but you catch my drift right? LOL I’m just sick and tired of when they do that, but this was not the case this AFD. I stand corrected.

          • jstrahl

            You might read Oxnard for laughs. 🙂 I agree, i see nothing weak here for the SF Bay Area.

          • Patrick McGuire

            Yeah, I agree with you. GFS is showing rain, and some yellow areas consistently now for NorCal for the past week. That doesn’t look like WEAK for those areas at all. Sour grapes forecast because it is out of SoCal if you ask me. Hopefully here in Stockton we are looking to get some decent rain out of this.

          • RunningSprings6250

            There is nothing wrong with the LA/OX discussion forecast, they are just not providing the whole picture – as mentioned they are being strict about discussing only within their forecast CWA.

            And as shown in my quote above with the SD discussion for the same time frame, I appreciate SD going that extra step to often paint the whole picture even if the main event is out of our area.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            I think that’s definitely fair enough.

          • RunningSprings6250

            San Diego discussions are much more sound.

            “Friday through Sunday…A strong Pacific jet making landfall along the West Coast will bring active weather to the Pacific Northwest and the northern half of California with rain, mountain snow and gusty winds. Most of the storms energy will remain
            north of Pt Conception, so the impacts down here will not be as significant. The marine layer will deepen to around 5000 feet over the weekend. This deep moist layer combined with stronger onshore flow and weak shortwave energy on the south side of the upper trough may support light precipitation along and west of the mountains at times. However, given the timing and intensity issues with those shortwaves, the forecast is kept dry for now.”

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            See now this is how I would expect them to talk about an upcoming event like this… Even if we are this far south, water is water to us and we all need it in our state.

  • Apollo
  • SoCalWXwatcher

    Since Toronto beat the Rangers to advance to the League Championship Series, let’s have a look at today’s 12z Canadian GEM.

    Looks more bullish than the GFS for rain chances S. of Point Conception next Monday.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c0faabaed02fe1a29cad4f63b47ceeaa3cdcba08f454f6dab762b59ce7d48ade.gif

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f214100da1889a42ff0d8077b25c0172581fcc0a24a2c13224f338abae495b4f.gif

    • jstrahl

      The 2 inch line for 10/17 seems to now stretch into the Bay Area itself, not just the North Bay.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Didn’t the Canadian do well last year? Just curious.

    • gray whale

      excellent post SCWW! plus, didn’t texas steal most of our Nino anyway?

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      We can only hope. Been a long 5 mos. without any rain in the bucket. Did get a few spritzes of drizzle and a sprinkle or two, but we need a good rain cleansing to wash away all the dust. The LR models are showing another Santa Ana event late next week and dry for the remainder of the month. We need these weather systems to give us something, otherwise it may be another dry month.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        I’m thinking we may get a decent bout of marine layer drizzle or legitimate light rain under 2 tenths of an inch if the Canucks are on their game with that model solution. I’d gladly take it with a bottle of Molsen and some Maple Syrup.

        • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

          Me too! After 5-days of temps 88-94 and bone dry weather, it would be a nice change.

    • I’m working on a blog post for this evening.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
        • Apollo

          I’m up North currently and just wanted to ask. Are the Santa Ana’s going to be any issues for the prone areas?

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            They might around wednesday, depends on how strong the SONGDA remnant is and it’s inside slider track. We won’t really know until this weekend.

          • Apollo

            To be established here Squaw Valley soon and be most happy (poor english, sorry) to get away from those damn DEVIL WINDS. Got’s Cronic Sinusitis. It’s Killing me.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            Oh man, you must be stoked & no worries of course. I am just curious, if you already got the property in your grip, what elevation do you think you will be at? Would love to get reports out of Squaw Valley, it’s sort of nestled on the western side of the Sierra’s and they get quite a bit of precipitation in the upper elevations (4,000ft.+) generally. You ought to get yourself a weather station my friend ;)! You’re going to love those summer thunderstorms moving in from the east I assume.

          • Apollo

            @2200′ rain measurements were 17″ for last season and a possible save for the foothill oaks. Somtimes get a treat with a dusting of 2″ to 5″ snow once in awhile. Weather station is a quality Borometer on wall.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            Nice! 17″?! Wow I actually am surprised with that. So I take it you’ve been there quite a bit before, definitely a sweet place to start a new life especially during the next 6 months. Cheers to you!

          • Apollo

            Our stream was running very healthy last Spring.

  • Bombillo1

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4239e932734741cb64fa5287db90e7a4d5bcce724d25b774f4dd9daa74363e4b.png

    A distinct departure from essentially all previous storms we have had in the past 5 years. Since watching the approaching system from the 240 hour point this event has increased in precip forecast EVERY DAY. 3 days ago I excitedly posted here that over 5 inches of rain was slated for our area. We are now on for over 8 inches in the 4 days starting Thursday. Does anyone anywhere recall rain amounts continuously going up starting ten days out?

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      I was waiting until somebody would make that call in the north and also notice the increasing chances opposed to the past 4 where they would fall out days prior. Good catch Bombillo!

    • RunningSprings6250

      December 2010 stands out.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Here is your 384 hour laugh for the day. Interestingly enough it seems the models are hinting that the upcoming pattern will keep the NPAC ridge down in the subtropical latitudes before the ridge moves in for next week. The mega-low or currently known as typhoon remnant SONGDA is poised to become an inside slider bringing with it winds out of the NE likely occurring as another Santa Ana episode for next week around Wednesday. As the inside slider slides south into Texas it cuts off the elongated ridge to it’s south. When this occurs the ridge still left over the far eastern NPAC adjacent to the west coast begins to build and sit over the west coast and then again over the US into the LR… It’s what is after all this (200+ hrs) that I am so focused on lately. So for now, the forecast looks accurate until next wednesday. Whether or not this LR setup for continued troughing occurs after is what is in question, but I’d really be happy if the models stay on their streak of generally good agreements and hold this tight in the runs, obviously that will likely not be the case. I’ve added the GIF to show what I am watching. Things are brewing that’s for sure. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/422e6815409aa781c90e7438dc6c0cc7db70a650c10c03c968521158992069f2.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d861ea56f11f7db8ca785f109f4e0ef3fe4618c0524059eec7503b8ca7c902ad.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3aec3c7d652662a9b902c66083fe957dc0bb92f9bfc382d3682599e8f935fbfb.gif

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Also to note activity in the Atlantic seems to be waking up closer to the US after Matthew and Nicole.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      BA in his update this morning on Opensnow mentioned after this round of storms we’d be looking around the 25th of Oct for the next round of storms. Hopefully we’re seeing the start to a “normal” winter.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Sounds about right, GFS is showing this. Obviously quite a ways out, but this would definitely be an encouraging October if SoCal does see storms on or the day before/after Halloween. I give it some medium confidence with that in mind IMHO.

        • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

          Halloween is always interesting, if Boreal opens one lift for skiing that is usually a good sign we will see a pretty good snow season.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            When did they open last year?

          • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

            I think sometime in Nov, Halloween is always tough with warm storms. If the temps drop with some snow then they usually end up making snow to help out with the base. Most the other major resorts are targeting Nov 18th as their opening date.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            I see, well let’s hope some cold air comes rushing in to aid this season!

          • matthew

            A lot of the resorts were opening for limited operation the week before Thanksgiving. It was one of the earliest openings in years.

  • mosedart (SF)

    35 foot waves right on top of the blob right now. Hopefully that’ll cool her down a bit.

    • BRP (Ventura)

      My imagination is running rampant! Can you imagine being out there right now, in the dead center of this low pressure, where winds are creating these 35 foot swells?!?! If the “Blob” doesn’t get a upwelling cool down from this monster, then I don’t know what will!

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        I’m just imagine the scene from the Guardian lol.

      • gray whale

        just watch “the deadliest catch”. pretty much gets right to the heart of it.

  • Random question, but does anyone know what the winds will be in the South Bay? Like around what mph range.

  • gray whale

    looking at this chart for total precip through Sunday night (albeit from the 06z) the most striking total is the 6.4″ mini-bullseye over Nevada City / Grass Valley. Should be fun! Any weather watchers over there active on the blog these days? I know Charlie is in Graegle but that’s all I can remember.

    • gray whale

      woops here’s the chart:

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      If you’re on twitter check out @yubanet they are based in that area and I am sure if it’s dumping they’ll update the NWS Sac office pretty regularly.

    • gray whale
      • Lucy is not the holder this year

      • jstrahl

        This does NOT show to me the allegedly dropping rainfall totals for the Bay Area which some people allege.

    • Barney

      The bullseye for far Northern California has stayed put for three days and actually risen to almost 20″! Bad ass. The models have been so consistent with this event it’s impressive. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f560380762e81c89d0a30a107c365803d257ea9dc55aa8b707e8deb9c9921059.png

      • RunningSprings6250

        Something close to 25% of the state poised to receive their entire October average rainfall from this event and in many cases as shown by the orange/yellow inverted “U”, double or triple the average.

        For example, Crescent City average is 4.5″ for October.

        Next event is for bay area SOUTH. 😀

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        That’s very roughly .15″-.25″ per hour of steady rain falling in that area if that verifies throughout the event (4 days)… Pretty sweet

        • Barney

          Yeah even if only half of that happens it would be great.

      • Nathan

        *storm track shifts to WA in the 2-day*

        • Barney

          It’s been up there for weeks as it should be right now.

          • Nathan

            I was joking.

    • hardcort

      From NWS Sac this afternoon

      The weather pattern starts changing on Thursday as the first
      atmospheric river of the season approaches. Fueled by moisture
      from the tropical remnants of Typhoon Songda, a warm frontal
      system begins to impact far northern CA Thursday, then shifts
      southward Thursday night into Friday. This initial wave will be
      quite wet. NAEFS ensembles are indicating this event to have
      record-level Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) values for the
      reanalysis climatological period this time of year…very
      impressive. The limiting factor precipitation-wise is that it will
      move through the region relatively quickly.

  • Black Cat loves Autumn! :)
    • RandomTreeInSB

      On track for 0.01″ in Santa Barbara??

      • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

        Ey that .01″ equals .06″ up here on the pass…

        .01″ is the new .10″

        Truly exciting times! (Snark)

      • thebigweasel

        Are the National Guard on hand to quell the resulting panic?

        • RandomTreeInSB

          LMAO I hope they are. Gotta inform the public about the danger and reduce losses!

  • RandomTreeInSB
  • WalkmanJG

    And…. As it’s been the case for the last few years, WU keeps dropping the rain totals and such for the Bay Area as we get closer and closer… Heck by Thursday there may be no rain at all…

    Yeah I’m jaded…

    • gray whale

      sorry homie, up in placerville we’ve got a new third-wave espresso joint AND we’re stealing all your rain. totals on the rise to over 4″! still no good asian food, bicycle lanes or kermit lynch, so you can still count your blessings as a bay area denizen.

      as my post total implies, i’m just giddy today. my apologies.

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/af1a182575e25fe74ea82d03f7ba51d9ad648ac61d4c1e86e02b7acca07fb957.png

      • nunbub

        I can vouch for Folsom totals increasing as well!

      • Barney

        I think it’s important to remember in this comment section that if it’s not raining in our backyard it’s not raining anywhere.

      • Microbursts

        Mmmm love me some kermit lynch … it’s like Christmas for wine lovers !!! Btw the totals forecast for the northern Sierra foothills are going up !!! I’m in Magalia just up above paradise and we are forecast to get close to 7.5-8 inches by Tuesday !!! ??????

    • Joey B. (Lafayette)

      NOAA forecast got better for Lafayette today…

    • TK

      I’m in the Bay Area and out WU totals went up today. But yeah, I know the phenomenon you’re talking about and I hate it.

    • Dan weather maniac

      I’m not seeing that in Orinda. What location are you?

  • TruckeeLover
    • mosedart (SF)

      I want to believe

  • supercell1545

    When the forecast discussion says that the vapor transport is “very impressive” for your area, that’s when you know good times are ahead.

  • Black Cat loves Autumn! :)
    • Joey B. (Lafayette)

      Calico Cat Loves Winter? 😉

  • alanstorm

    Unfortunate fire broke out in Southern Humboldt near Weott, right in the Rockefeller Redwoods Ntl park. Was driving up101. Hope they put this out soon!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0cba8f94cbd4e307796b42db5cf0dc9b5c65daf5e325e424aaa0569f3ae9fd86.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/95123b65cd9124c6eb3948389e094d397de200d30f169ee663d11a57b60bf4d8.jpg d

  • matthew

    With the first storm now within 72 hours, I feel safe to say…wooooo hooooo…bring it on!!!

  • Black Cat loves Autumn! :)

    I’m getting a October 2009 vibe from these storms coming through with typhoon remnants slamming the West Coast.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2009_North_American_storm_complex

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      I remember that system like it was yesterday… Here’s a small excerpt from Dr. Jeff Masters when that system was exiting the region.

      “The remains of Super Typhoon Melor dumped record-breaking amounts of rain over California over the past 24 hours, but the storm is now departing the state without having caused major damage. Mining Ridge in Monterey County had an extraordinary 21.34″ of rain, and several locations in Santa Cruz, Monterey, and Santa Clara counties had over 10″ of precipitation. Downtown San Francisco recorded 2.49 inches of rain, which is the greatest 24 hour rainfall for the month of October (records have been kept since 1849). Monterey also set a record for the greatest October rainfall, 2.66″. Strong winds accompanied the storm, with the Twin Peaks in San Francisco recording a hurricane-force gust of 75 mph, Angel Island, 77 mph, and Los Gatos in the Santa Cruz Mountains, 87 mph. Sustained winds in excess of tropical storm force were experienced at several locations along the coast. The Point Reyes Lighthouse experienced sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph, at the peak of the storm. The Sierra Mountains probably experienced hurricane-force wind gusts, and received several feet of snow. California was lucky this storm came early in their rainy season, since the ground was dry from a year-long drought and the soils were able to absorb a great deal of the rain. Melor’s Deluge in California will be a great boon for the state, helping it to overcome one of the most severe droughts in the past 50 years.”

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Fun fact: That storm complex was also super charged by a typhoon remnant becoming a mega Aleutian low peaking out at 966mb… Similar to the setup we will see in the next 6 days. Amazing actually since this is nearly the same scenario however that was a result of the low bombing out farther south just off the west coast and holding there for quite sometime. That was one of the gnarliest cyclogenesis example I ever witnessed.

    • Apollo

      This forecasted AR. Trick Or treat! October.

    • Those were good times indeed.

  • alanstorm

    Record flooding in N Carolina on the Lumber River, 4ft above the previous record. Sadly, entire city of Lumberton underwater.
    Lumberton is featured in which 80’s cult movie?

    • Apollo

      The East Coast capared to West Coast (especially SoCal). Striking differences.

    • Apollo

      The 80’s? What!

    • “Blue Velvet” More than a cult.

      • alanstorm

        WINNER!!!!
        Probably my favorite movie of all time

        • So what do I get? LOL Body Double is also a good flick from the 80’s in this genre

          • alanstorm

            You win a joyride with Frank.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Bobby Vinton was a good friend of ours for many years lol, I only know his song is in the movie.

  • Apollo

    1.5″ P.W.? ( incomplete pic.)

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Easily one of the deepest lows I have seen depicted in that region this many days out in a long time… You can already see the jet is beginning to barrel towards the coast this evening and after tomorrow’s mini ridge briefly rolls through into thursday, the gates will be nice and wide open for the event to begin. Incredibley 18z is showing SONGDA deepening even more to 519mb at one frame of the run. Here is the trend. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1fe3295621c4a31ea6772e1b2a60b306fa50b3b6cb2b6025c03b793af218e04c.gif https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b15ae5672b47eaa0e504acd8ea9f1263c7a92fd2d4b1b23a2f0c00194ac2f946.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f86ce8dcaff1f2354cf54b6743819fb865b867d0dff7a30b04849d93b2ef328a.gif

    • Apollo

      Snow Levels are high. Haa! Bummer!

      • Dan the Weatherman

        It’s only October!

    • alanstorm

      There will be High Wind Warnings up here Saturday @ 955mb! WOW

  • Apollo

    an update on new blog? (this weekend f/c).

  • Nate

    Ok, time to move over to the new blog post…