Very boring weather continues; possible change on the horizon

A very stagnant and dull weather pattern persists across much of the nation. An exception may be Arizona and New Mexico, where numerous strong monsoonal thunderstorms have been producing mostly beneficial heavy rains. The relatively active pattern in the far Southwest will continue, but cool and mostly dry weather will prevail elsewhere. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across interior mountain areas, especially around midweek, along with some warmer temperatures. The numerous fires across the West will have a chance to grow even more in the coming days. In the slightly longer term, the GFS has been indicating for over 24 hours that a change in the weather may be in the offing around days 8/9. The unseasonably strong troughiness along the West Coast is expected to continue for the most part, but the Eastern Pacific will likely become active once again. Tropical activity that develops will have a much higher than normal chance of being pulled northward by these rather deep troughs, a scenario that is highlighted especially by the 12z run of the GFS. Although it’s still quite speculative at this point, there is some potential for a remnant circulation to be pulled back to the N/NE into CA in the 7-14 day period. If this were to occur, significant convective activity would occur first in CA and then across much of the West as the moisture moves east. Although unlikely, it does happen every few years, and it is usually spectacular when it does (Ignacio, Linda, and a couple others since 1995). We’ll see what happens.

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