Cold night, few showers, then dry

One more cold night will threaten crops across CA tonight. Tomorrow night will still be quite cold, but no more records will be set and the duration of subfreezing temperatures in the growing areas will be less than 4 hours. A cutoff low will approach the NorCal coast late tomorrow evening and drop south down along the coast through Wednesday. The low will bring some moister air and some reinforcing cold temperatures aloft (-3 to -4 C at 850 mb–not quite to the magnitude we have endured recently, but still low for this area). Showers will likely occur in the highly unstable airmass near the low, and snow levels will actually be 2000 feet in the north (inc. Bay Area) and locally lower. Some isolated 1-3 inch snow accums. poss. on Bay Area mountains late Tues. night. I feel that there will probably be at least a few lightning strikes, too. The low will weaken and dry out as it moves over SoCal, so only isolated showers can be expected there (and more Santa Ana winds!). Maximum rainfall totals, even in the wettest parts of NorCal, will not exceed 0.25 in. Once this low moves off to the east, temperatures at 850 mb will begin a slow but steady rise over the next 5 days, and surface temperatures will increase accordingly. Above normal temperatures will develop by the middle of next week as a strong 1035 mb high builds over the far E. Pac. This will allow for 70 and possibly 80 degree weather to occur increasingly far up the coast as the week progresses. No rain will fall after Wednesday’s meager cutoff for quite some time. There’s really not all that much to discuss–the sensible weather will be rather spectacularly unspectacular for the next couple of weeks. Check out the updated Seasonal Outlook which was issued today. No changes in the middle-term, I’m afraid…

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