Typical mid-summer weather to continue across California

The weather this summer has thus far been very normal–with a few minor heatwaves, and a couple of moderate monsoonal moisture surges. More of the same is expected to continue for the foreseeable future, with no large heatwaves nor any significant subtropical moisture surges on the horizon. Flow is generally southerly or even a bit southeasterly over the state at the moment, and may even trend a little more southeasterly by early next week. Some mid-level moisture may try to advect into CA, and may be enhanced if we get any easterly waves as we did last week. Some thunderstorms will probably crop up over mountain and desert regions during this time frame, though chances elsewhere are not presently very promising. The Eastern Pacific has so far been fairly quiet since mid-June, so any potential influence on our weather from tropical disturbances seems quite low for at least the next week or so. It’s worth pointing out that we’re very quickly heading for a La Nina event, and that equatorial Pacific SST anomalies have become significantly negative already (after falling from respectably high levels only a few months ago). It’s always hard to say what impact ENSO has on the summer pattern here in CA, so I’ll refrain from making any predictions in that regard. If we start trending towards a moderate or strong La Nina event by the fall, though, the upcoming winter will probably be affected. We’ll just have to see about that…

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© 2010 WEATHER WEST


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