After significant promise of an early start to the rainy season in CA, the patten has reverted to a very dry and stable one over the Eastern Pacific. Though NorCal has already received several inches of rainfall this fall, nearly all of this fell during that one 24 hour period early in the month during the “Post-Columbus Day Storm.” Parts of SoCal have received some rain, too, though amounts have been rather light to nonexistent in some areas. There is no real sign of rainfall on the horizon at the moment. The GFS has been dry for nearly the entire 15 day run for a couple of days now, though the ECMWF is trying to bring some precip at times. Both models have been aggressive in indicating pattern changes only to back off as the ostensible change approaches, leaving us high and dry. This is not an unusual occurrence during the early fall, and it may continue for another 2-3 weeks as the atmosphere begins to adjust to the changing seasons. It’s also important to keep in mind that things can change quickly this time of year, and that includes a sudden and somewhat unexpected reversion to an active pattern. At the moment, however, there are no signs of that.
I do plan to update the Seasonal Outlook this weekend–most of the new site is now up and running.