Rare June cut-off low still on track for next week

Amazingly enough, the models continue to indicate that a remarkably and unseasonably deep cut-off low will set up shop off the CA coast beginning by Monday. The low already has a very impressive satellite presentation over the Eastern Pacific, though much of the intense convection currently associated with it is expected to weaken as it nears the coast and moisture decreases. The details are still uncertain, but is still appears that the low will move to a position 75-200 miles off the Central California coast by early in the week and remain there for at least five days. Thunderstorms will occur over all mountain areas every day for a week beginning on Monday, and these showers and storms will at times extend into coastal and valley locations throughout the week. Precisely where and when is still unknown at this time, but both the GFS and NAM have been indicating the potential for discrete convective cells to pop up almost anywhere in the northern 2/3 of the state. SoCal is still looking somewhat marginal for this event, but I still would not write it off just yet. This low may very pick up a subtropical moisture tap…considering its impressively deep southerly flow aloft and very, very slow movement to the east, and this would dramatically change the forecast for Southern California. In the much longer term, some models indicate that this low could morph into a true Rex Block off the coast by days 9 and beyond, which would cause most precip over the state to end initially but would leave the door wide open for any significant monsoonal moisture surge or remnant tropical system by the second week in June. All in all…a much more active pattern that one would expect in June in California…

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