Significant pattern change, but no major storms

Brief update today. The first in a series of three disturbances will move into NorCal tomorrow, bringing gusty winds and rain. Rain could be briefly heavy around frontal passage, and would expect up to 1.5 inches in the wettest areas of NorCal by Sat. noon. SoCal will not see any rain from this event. The second storm moves in late Saturday, bringing renewed rain and wind. This system could be a little wetter–possibly up to 2 inches in the wettest areas. Socal could see some rain from this event, though almost certainly under .25 inch. The third system will be a NorCal event once again, with up to 1.5 inches expected, mainly in the far north. Maximum winds gusts with these systems could read 45 mph in the usually favored areas, and an isolated thunderstorm could occur near any of the three frontal passages or possibly in NoCal under the slightly unstable airmass on Sunday following the second system and preceding the third. Beyond that, looks like a few more minor (<1inch) rainfall events later in the week. No real storm activity is expected beyond this weekend for a while. This could change quickly if the jet begins to sag southward, as it is apt to do in December, but no real sign of it as of yet. Also, the CPC updated the ENSO Diagnostic Discussion today--in short, a moderate El Nino is expected to continue for the forseeable future.

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