Some rain today; no big storms for the next week or so.

Today’s relatively weak system will bring some moist and unstable air to the northern third of the state, and this will lead to some isolated thunderstorms over the North Coast, the Sacramento Valley, and possibly the Bay Area. Rainfall outside of very isolated convective cores and away from the north coast, though, will be light to nonexistent. There will be a few more light rainfall events this week in NorCal (just in time for Veteran’s Day), but nothing of particular note for mid-November. Given the continued activity of the MJO in the West Pac and the potential for some Rossby wave enhancement downstream when the signal begins to propgate eastward, recent GFS prognostications of a significant to major storm system impacting CA out near day 11/12 is not so improbable. We shall see…stay tuned.

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