Back to fall, again

After this week’s upper-level low and early rain event (up to 1/2 inch in some places), typically dry and warm weather has returned to CA. Gusty offshore winds and low humidities could increase fire danger, but the wetting rains recently recieved over much of the area should preclude any critical issues. A highly-amplified pattern over the North American continent will develop over the next 7 days, with a blocking pattern developing over the West. One or two cutoff lows are expected to develop over the interior and slowly retrograde over CA over the next 3-7 days. These lows could actually bring isolated showers or thunderstorms in addition to warm easterly/southeasterly flow. We’ll see how that pans out. The highly and unseasonably amplified pattern could eventually develop a deeper closed low over CA, with greater implications for sensible weather. El Nino is gearing up, with possible major implications for the long term…the seasonal outlook will be updated for the fall and early winter in the next week.