Typical winter dry pattern this week

This weekend’s system behaved differently than the models had indicated that it would earlier in the week. Instead of dropping down the coast in a well-behaved manner, the system moved inland over CA and east from there, preventing a large amount of rain from occurring in SoCal and even much of NorCal. Some locally significant rainfall totals did occur, but widespread heavy precipitation did not materialize. Cold but dry air aloft is filtering in from the north in the wake of this system, which will bring some high clouds and cold overnight temperatures where the opacity of sky cover is less. No major changes are foreseen for the next 5-7 days. There are some indications that a major pattern shift could be taking place in the 8-10 day period, with the potential for some strong and wet northern stream storm systems. The MJO is trying to reorganize, certainly to a greater extent than I would normally expect in a La Nina year. So…future rain events for the rest of the rainy season may be tied to active MJO phases.  So…stay tuned…because I’m reluctant to buy into such a pattern change after all of these progged events so far this year have evolved very differently than expected…

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