A pattern change still appears to be taking shape across the Eastern Pacific this week. A couple of areas of low pressure in the subtropics between HI and CA have generated a rather significant moisture tap and will make a valiant attempt at advecting a good deal of this mid and upper level moisture into the state over the next few days. Situations like these usually don’t lead to any significant weather, but given the proximity of the upper low center on Friday afternoon, it may still be prudent to watch out for some convective activity. After the low quickly moves out to the east, a cold front will approach CA from the NW over the weekend, bringing some rain to the northern half of the state. Precipitation will not be heavy, but could be the first wetting rains in a couple of weeks in many areas. More weak to moderately strong systems will continue to bring chances of rain into early next week, though all/nearly all of the precipitation will stay north of the Santa Barbara coast. The models do diverge after this point, and there is some indication that a more active and dynamic jet pattern will develop over the next 1-2 weeks. If this were to occur, some significant/heavy rainfall could occur in NorCal and SoCal could see their first real rain of the season. Don’t hold your breath…a lot will change between now and then. The possibility does exist, however; it’s now late enough in the season that these systems do have the potential to hold together long enough to make in to SoCal. Stay tuned…
