By far this weekend, the main story continues to be Hurricane John. Now downgraded to a cat 1 with 80 mph winds (from a former cat 3, 125 mph menace), John is moving NW, just having made a second landfall on the east coast of Baja California. The models have been all over the place with regard to the eventual track of the storm and its remnants, but a consensus finally appears to be developing. The new NHC track takes the storm, as a weak depression, about 200 miles SW of the Southern California Bight . This is roughly in agreement with the models, all of which take it back out over the Pacific. Depending on how far north and west this system goes, all or part of California will see significant convective activity from this storm. It appears likely that areas from Los Angeles south will see substantial rains from John’s remnants, possibly even in coastal areas. S. AZ will also likely see very heavy thunderstorms develop in the next few days. Depending on how far west the remnant circulation gets (and how far north), N. Cal may see some activity, as well–especially if the GFS forecast of strong southerly flow on Monday and Tuesday verifies. There is substantial uncertainty regarding the weather over the next week, so stay tuned. John’s remnants are expected to stick around for at least a week offshore, according to the GFS, so any favorable flow (S, SW, or even WSW) could bring thunderstorms to CA. Also…the door will remain more or less open for any additional tropical systems to take a path that would impact the SWrn U.S., so September could an interesting month.
