Pre-fall doldrums

All of CA and much of the West is currently locked in the rather stagnant weather pattern that is often a precursor (by a month or so) to the beginning of the fall season. The incredible and deadly heat, humidity and severe thunderstorm activity that has persisted across Southern California for quite a few days is finally beginning to wane. Weak offshore flow in NorCal is contributing to the development and spread of several large wildfires, with widespread smoke, haze, and reduced visibility across large swaths of the state today. Hot, dry weather will persist for another 48 hours in NorCal before flow once again becomes weakly onshore, reestablishing a minor marine layer and bringing seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures to most of the state. Moisture from Hurricane Henrietta is, unfortunately, not going to impact CA at all, and has even managed to miss much of AZ, as well. Far SE AZ and NM will bear the brunt of the moist convective activity from these tropical remnants, though even these areas won’t see more than an inch in most places. Nothing interesting is showing on any of the long range models at the moment, which really isn’t too suprising. Fire weather will continue to be the main concern in the coming weeks, and some additional periods of weak to moderate offshore flow do appear to be possible.  Hopefully this winter’s precipitation will be substantial, because the entire state is now well-below normal in terms of soil moisture and water-season total rainfall. Stay tuned.