Some monsoonal advances

Today’s brief monsoonal surge across the West is bringing some showeractivity to the southern 2/3 of CA. Tstorm activity has been limited so far and may remain suppressed by the extensive cloud cover, but some isolated storms may pop up later today as a result of surface heating. Dry thunderstorms are a concern once again over NV, though tomorrow the focus turns towards flash flooding potential as the atmosphere moistens. None of the models have captured today’s moisture surge particularly well, and so more of these brief surges and associated threats of light showers and isolated lightning may continue for the next 7-10 days. No really impressive monsoonal events are on the horizon, though. One thing to watch will be the soon-to-be-tropical storm in the E. Pac. Given its somewhat northerly track, some mid/upper level moisture could become entrained in S/SW flow aloft over CA. All in all, a rather typical summer pattern, though without the intense heat of last July.