July heatwave; dry tstm potential

Just a quick update this evening. A strong Sonoran heat ridge will continue to edvect hot 850 mb temperatures into CA from the SE, bringing 100-110 degree weather to the Central Valley and 125 degree plus heat to Death Valley. Coastal areas won’t see a large heatwave with this particular event, as there will still be some onshore component to the winds all week. One thing to take note of, however, is the weak upper low/vorticity maximum forecast by all models to develop just SW of the Bay Area on Thursday. This feature will be moisture-starved, but this is the type of pattern in which one has to watch closely for the development of high-based convection over coastal areas. Some dry thunderstorms are likely to pop up over the Sierras Thursday and Friday, leading to a significant fire weather threat. Temperatures will cool some, but remain hot in inland areas, this weekend as this vort max induces more westerly flow at the surface. Beyond that, the GFS is now indicating a rather interesting development. On days 6/7, the GFS develops a cutoff low just SW of Central California–a perfect location for advecting warm and potentially moist air in from Mexico and the SW. If this pattern turns out, there will be a significant chance of thunderstorms across nearly the entire state. Definitely might want to keep an eye on this particular scenario…

This is already a departure from the vernal Alaskan clime. Pictures from a dramatic severe thunderstorm with 3/4 inch hail and an incredible pyrocumulus event are forthcoming…


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