Spring pattern to continue

Yesterday sure felt like summer across the southwestern United States, with July-like temperatures in inland locations and a surge of thunderstorm activity over AZ and NM reminiscent of a monsoonal pattern. Temperatures will slowly moderate over the next few days as a Gulf of Alaska trough approaches from the NW. The models have been struggling greatly with both the track…depth…and intensity of this upcoming pattern change, but it now appears that SoCal will stay dry/mostly dry and most of NorCal will see light to very light precipitation, if that. There will be some very cold air aloft (for this time of year) in the far north, which will probably lead to some fairly intense showers and at least isolated thunderstorms at some point during the next week as far south as the Bay Area, but overall rain amounts should be less than 0.50 across the board and less than 0.25 in the vast majority of places. After next weekend, the cold air aloft is quickly replaced by much warmer air from the SW and temperatures at the surface will warm dramatically, probably back up into the 80s and 90s once again in the traditionally warmer areas. Summer is not far off…and the last snow survey of the year will occur early this week. The results probably won’t be too encouraging…