Still cold…

Very cold and record-breaking cold temperatures continue over the state and will moderate only slightly this week. The ice in the backyard still hasn’t melted since it froze 72 hours ago here in San Rafael. The airmass is still cold and dry at virtually all levels as the flow remains mildly offshore. We are currently just east of the amazingly persistent block off the coast, which is keeping the northerly jet well to our north and the southern branch 500-750 miles south of SoCal. This split flow configuration will continue, it appears, for the next 2+ weeks. What does this mean in terms of sensible weather? A weak cutoff could form under the block around midweek, potentially bringing scattered showers and some more cold air to the state. Rainfall would likely be under 0.10 in in all areas, barely enough to wet the pavement if anything falls at all. Temps may warm a bit if clouds/precip develop, but will drop again once skies clear and northerly flow develops once again. The Santa Anas will continue on and off for the next week. Again. Once thing to watch for over the next few weeks will be the potential for any low pressure circulation off of CA to pick up some of the subtropical moisture that is forecast by the GFS to be in abundance over Baja and the E. Pac. south of SoCal. A couple of models have shown this possibility for the past few days. We can hope for the best, but it certainly doesn’t look very promising. Other than that: very, very dry with below to well below normal temperatures for the next 2 weeks. Water shortages, anyone?