Occasional NorCal rain, but dry autumn continues across Southern California

Filed in Uncategorized by on November 6, 2017 2,396 Comments

Damp in NorCal; bone dry in the south

Most of California was extremely warm in October, especially the southern portion of the state. (WRCC)

October was an exceptionally hot month in Southern California, with numerous high temperature records falling across a broad region. Many SoCal sites set new records for their hottest temperatures for so late in the calendar year–well into the triple digits in most places, even near the coast. Most of Northern California was still quite warm, though less anomalously so. Temperatures have finally cooled in recent days back toward seasonably cool levels.

Meanwhile, the rainy season has thus far gotten off to a pretty slow start across most of the state. While most of NorCal has now seen wetting rainfall (and, in some spots, “fire season-ending” accumulations), the southern part of the state has thus far been quite dry so far this autumn. Dry autumns are not necessarily that unusual in Southern California–and, as I’ve previously discussed, do not necessarily foretell a dry winter to come. Last week, it had appeared that a series of relatively moist storm systems might finally bring widespread rainfall to much of the state. Instead, these systems brought mostly light precipitation to Northern California and only drizzle across portions of SoCal.

It has been a very dry autumn so far across most of California, but rather wet in the Pacific Northwest. (WRCC)

 

 

Blocking ridge in Gulf of Alaska: Snow in Seattle, but sunny in SoCal

Recent ridging has shifted somewhat westward from its October position, bringing colder temperatures to the West Coast. (NCEP via ESRL)

A very strong blocking ridge of high pressure has developed over the northern Gulf of Alaska in recent days, leading to a high-amplitude flow pattern over the North Pacific and inducing all kinds of unusual weather to the east. Southern California recent dryness is partially attributable to the atmospheric wave pattern induced by this “boulder in the stream” to our northwest, though weaker subtropical ridging had been the bigger player during much of October. High pressure in this region also tends to result in cold air outbreaks over the western Canadian interior, as cold Arctic air spills southward (and even southwestward) on the east side of the ridge. This strong ridge is no exception: over the weekend, a fairly remarkably early season Arctic outbreak brought rare early November snowfall to sea level in Vancouver and Seattle. Seattle usually only sees snow once or twice a year (and some years, none at all!), making this light dusting one of the earliest on record.

The weekly CFS suggests a high probability that intense high-latitude ridging will persist for at least several weeks. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

This unusual cold over the Pacific Northwest, though, is more than counterbalanced by extremely warm temperature anomalies over the Arctic Ocean just north of Alaska resulting from this ridge. Amazingly, sea ice has yet to form in the Chukchi and Bering Sea (and, remarkably, mostly ice-free seas are still visible in the live webcam view from Utqia?vik (Barrow)). There have been a spate of recent winters exhibiting similar high-latitude blocking patterns, with a resulting “warm Arctic” and “cold continent” pattern developing during successive weeks. There is quite a bit of ongoing research exploring these events and their potential connection to sea ice loss (along with weather extreme-related impacts further to the south).

This kind of pattern is very tricky to forecast for two key reasons. First, blocking ridges have a tendency to be quite persistent–and weather models sometimes have a hard time capturing the self-reinforcing feedback loops that can develop under favorable conditions. Second, the “downstream” effects of large, persistent ridges can be highly dependent on geographic nuance–small shifts the exact position of the ridge relative to the jet stream or nearby mountain ranges, for example, can mean the difference between relentless storminess/Arctic outbreaks and multi-week sunny spells in any particular location. At our relatively low latitude in California, there is also a third option: strong Gulf of Alaska ridges can also cause the subtropical and subpolar jet streams to merge in a fashion that brings large storms to the Pacific Southwest.

 

Modest NorCal rains; little across the south

Light to moderate rainfall accmulation can be expected across northern California over the next 10 days, with little if any over SoCal. (tropicaltidbits.com)

At the moment, it appears that the subtropical jet is just not robust enough to bring any active weather to California. Most models suggest that the Gulf of Alaska ridge is likely to persist for at least the next 10 days, and perhaps quite a bit longer than that. In fact, the weekly CFS forecasts (which were recently shown to have considerable skill on 3-4 week timescales) suggest that it could linger into December.  That doesn’t mean that conditions will be completely dry in California; in fact, model ensemble forecasts still bring widespread light to moderate precipitation to the northern third of California over the next couple of weeks. But Southern California is likely to remain pretty dry for the foreseeable future, and there are no big storms on the horizon in Northern California, either.

La Niña conditions still appear to be developing across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, which (as previously discussed) tends to tilt the odds toward a dry winter in Southern California. Portions of the western tropical Pacific are also anomalously warm at the moment which recent work (including some of my own, which I’ll discuss in greater detail in a future post) suggests is favorable for the occurrence of winter ridging near California. At the moment, then, there is some evidence hinting that a pattern similar to the present one may recur with some regularity this winter. As noted above: Gulf of Alaska blocking can be a double-edged sword–typically resulting in relatively dry and stable conditions over California, though occasionally allowing for cold air outbreaks and active jet stream mergers over the East Pacific. But for the next couple of weeks, at least, North Pacific ridging is likely to prevail.

Cool temperatures in the Eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean contrast with above-average warmth nearly everywhere else. (NOAA via tropicaltidbits.com)

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  • Cap’n

    EPIC imagery dude I love this stuff:

    “Get ready to bust a white wintery nut – the NAM misses out 24 hours of magic still – GFS past NAM window is doing speedballs with Houdini outside Saigon for 1135589 Vietnamese dong a puff. ”

    Crash

  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

    0.15 in San Jose. More than I expected .

    • Same here.

    • Patrick from Stockton

      Raining pretty good in Stockton right now too which I was not expecting glad to see it

    • jstrahl

      . 01 inches in Berkeley. Quite overwhelming.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette
    • Bombillo1

      Oh when the shark bites scarlet billows, cause Mac he’s back in town€€€€€

  • Fairweathercactus

    0z shows the big ridge at the end of the run.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    got 0.12″ of rain from this event

  • Sublimesl

    Models have really ramped up rainfall predictions for Wed. for Oakland Hills….now expected 1.5 inches. Wow. I’m surprised, I was preparing for the year of sorrows and disappointments, weatherwise.

    • jstrahl

      Hoping we don’t get disappointed again.

  • Gonzales has had a swarm of EQ’s. Latest was a 4.6. We have one poster in Soledad who will hopefully give us his account.

    • PRCountyNative

      Friends in and around Salinas felt it. Said it wasn’t scary, more gentle. Nothing on the peninsula.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
    • jstrahl

      1-2 inch expected? Interesting.

  • Latest runs mighty impressive on GFS and Nam, haven’t bothered with euro yet as it’s likely in the same camp anyhow – 80% or so of event is inside NAM now, including the bulk of Donner area totals – looks off-the-charts healthy:
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017111406/nam3km_asnow_swus_61.png

    • Cap’n

      BA cut resort totals in half. This is going to be a big rain event crash. I’ll gladly be wrong and eat my words, but those charts must represent the upper most peaks. Below 8K sure seems like all rain until the end, and I wouldn’t be shocked if snow levels are more in the 8-9K range. I’d be happy to be wrong, but everything I’m seeing looks warm n wet until the end when the moisture is diminishing. Still excited for some heavy rain.

      • They do, and I’m fine with a base layer of cement. I’m not expecting low snow levels, that’s just not in the cards with the nature of this system. But Mammoth still does look to be doing great, the three feet for Kirkwood in that chart is normal for the setup we have. I can’t ski on what was going to fall anyways, not going up in November for groomers. I’ve got a trip to Mexico slated for the first week and a half of December. Been a long time since I’ve been able to get a trip somewhere warm during the core of our cold season, and if our opening sucks, then I’ll be having margaritas about it on the beach.

        • Cap’n

          Surf trip? Jealous. I’m not trying to be a downer just realistic. I’m fine with a good rain storm and obviously a good cement base is exactly what’s needed, I just think that there will be disappointment for those even expecting much of that. But who knows! Lots of storms last year had forecasters baffled until game time.

    • jstrahl

      All three models say rain? This raises the odds of rain to 30-50%. 🙂

  • CHeden

    Check the Dvorak IR loop. The base of the GoA low looks like it’s pretty much bottomed out, with SW anticyclonic flow and an associated low advancing to the NNE. The two flows are nearing each other, but I’m not seeing any signs of interaction (as yet)….which would be one marker of a developing AR.
    ATTM, it looks like everything will hinge on the sub-tropical low advancing from the SW, and how much dynamics it can drag along with it.
    IMHO, right now it looks like the GoA low is going to be essentially a non-player other than helping drag the S.T. low NE up the coast, as well as provide some brief post-frontal upper air support.

    https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/ar-bin/ar.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&CCA=AtmosRiver-x-x&SSC=PacificNE-x-x&AGE=Latest&INTERVAL=Most_Recent&SIZE=Thumb&PRODUCT=ir-dvorak-color&SUB_PRODUCT=gvar-goesW&PATH=AtmosRiver-x-x/PacificNE-x-x/ir-dvorak-color/gvar-goesW&&buttonPressed=Animate&ANIM_TYPE=Instant https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c45ebb5d73479d099ea25fd63b217ba4693b690423b9a5516f09c6f7d8c64531.jpg

    • Bombillo1

      The GOA L is having one H of a time getting S, WTF, up N we’re SOL even w/ an AR.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    After looking at the models likely scenario for Truckee would be 2-5 inches of rain before switching to snow later in the day on Thursday and then picking up 3-9 inches of snow. Capn obviously would pick up higher amounts then Truckee so it should be a precip fest for him. Myself on the other hand am forecasted to get a couple inches of rain, but if this strong AR stalls like the NAM has advertised it could over the SCmountains we could be in for some significant totals https://twitter.com/nwsbayarea/status/930402891189424129

    • Just look at it, it’s a rager ready to do keg stands all night and stall out puking it’s guts out upon sweet lady ‘fornia’s peaks, points, and hairiest of valleys. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9e3bbc64a46973b4c8f4306ccf4fbdfc4ebbd6e4e34683eafd25fe6ceedd8d5f.gif

      • CHeden

        My heart says to root for your point of view.

    • janky

      Yeah, our roads in the Santa Cruz mountains are still a mess and not fixed from all the ARs last winter. Highway 35 (Skyline) has been closed since February and won’t be open until January. Smaller roads still have sections that are one car width because the side of the road fell out from a slide. Bracing…

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Lordy. Another winter coming, doesn’t look good.

    • Breezey in the wind tunnel parts of Morgan Hill

  • Thunder98
  • Cap’n

    1.3″ in the rain gauge from last night, 5.4″ now for November. Definitely within the realm of possibility that I hit double digits tomorrow. Maybe our first measurable snow on Thursday?

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      You will get snow

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      I ended up with .9″ and about an inch of snow or so. Icy out there this morning.

    • BRP (Ventura)

      I know, redundant question every year, but what is your monthly average for November at your place?

      • Cap’n

        Here’s the Truckee Climate Summary. I’m west of here by 5 miles or so, so my numbers are higher but I can’t find any long term records for my area whenever I look. https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ca9043

        • BRP (Ventura)

          Wow, a 3.25″ November precip average, and you are already at 5.4″, you might be tripling your November averages by the end of this weekend. “Money in the bank” eh?! Have fun with this next storm cycle. Still 0.00″ since Oct 1 here in VTA. But the surf has been fun….

          • Cap’n

            Oh man a buddy of mine scored Newport a couple days ago, pictures had me jealous. Really hope you guys get rain soon. We’re contemplating coming down for thanksgiving, hope to score some surf if I do.

          • BRP (Ventura)

            Spent 4 days at Jalama last week and scored some of the best waves I’ve had in the past year. You should divert and check it out on your way down next week…

    • Thunderstorm

      Tahoe at record level by next week?

  • AlTahoe

    GFS is sticking to it’s guns of back to back warm storms. If the weekend storm comes through as depicted the only ski resorts that will have any snow left will be upper Heavenly, and Mt Rose. This will be a big set back for everybody that was trying to open by Thanksgiving. It doens’t even look cold enough to make snow after the last AR comes through.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      I watched Steve Paulson this morning to see what he was thinking; he still feels we’ll see up to a foot around lake level with the first storm. It will be interesting to see how the week unfolds.

      • Chris

        I wish he would go back to posting on Facebook!!!

        • inclinejj

          There are some problems at KTVU since Fox took over.

          • Chris

            But they took over a long time ago. You think that’s the culprit?
            I feel like calling him myself.

    • Shane Ritter

      Heavy precip might drag down snow levels.

    • matthew

      I stare right at the north slopes of Northstar whenever I drive into town. It is still pretty much all dirt below what looks like about 8000′. If things play out like the GFS is showing it should be all white by Friday and back to mainly dirt by Thanksgiving.

    • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

      One of my local resorts, Mt High, hasn’t even announced an opening date. Usually even in a drier fall we get some cool santa anas by now so they can at least make a bunch of snow.

  • happ [Los Angeles]
  • Shane Ritter

    Looks like the GFS is backing off on the ridge next week!

  • alanstorm
    • weathergeek100

      and Barney has made it to LA and even north SD county! Barney loves them!!!

      • alanstorm

        More like harassment from a Barney Wienstien

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      I hope I get more than 0.26″, Seems too low to me. 0.40″ sounds more realistic.

    • jstrahl

      Believe it when you see it in your rain gauge.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    Rain is forecasted everyday in Olympia, WA. Looks like the storm door will remain open for the entire West Coast for the foreseeable future.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5457146dfc1ade6a687c664bc1fbfca2c57f55dbf136d0bdaeb2a7760a4f368d.png

  • AlTahoe

    Howard posted the info below regarding the next AR for next week.
    “Thus the AR portion of the storm would have an even higher snow level
    over Mammoth Mt, possibly above 10,000 feet. There would be little or
    no cold air following the storm either. This is a storm that we do not
    need! More later on this next system.”

    • matthew

      Yeah, the GFS has been showing next weeks storm as a warm one for the past few days. I am still going with late-December for skiing to start on anything but a handful of runs with good snowmaking.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      We may not need a warm AR from a water storage perspective (reservoirs are well stocked so far) or a ski resort perspective, but I have to think the rain will be beneficial to the forests.

      Of course it would me much better to have that water “banked” as snow in the mountains for winter sports and Spring runoff, but I’m not sure we can look at any early season rainfall and say we “do not need” it.

      • matthew

        The forest, in general, is still in pretty good shape in my ‘hood at 6K’. The meadow near my house is still green, soggy, and has water flowing through it. It is normally dry by August…on a good year. The critters seem to be doing well too. The Truckee-Loyalton deer herd passes through my area on its annual migration. Yesterday I saw the most obese buck I have ever seen. Obviously a good year for the grazers.

        That said…bring on the water, frozen or liquid.

      • AlTahoe

        With our late summer flash floods the soil is already saturated up here. Even the little retention ponds that dry out over summer are at capacity already. I would imagine all of that rain would just be dumped out of the reservoirs and go to the ocean this early in the season. I wonder when the last time there was a major warm AR in November? It usually happens late Dec-Feb. Very unusual.

        • AlTahoe

          It looks like Nov and Dec 1950 had a couple of warm AR’s that caused extensive flooding. The block that season looks very similar to this years. Cold air did not arrive that season until January for Tahoe.

  • Would seem to imply more than just an AR with little cyclonic support?https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea/status/930469459961278464

  • Fairweathercactus

    Past 3 models have been showing ridge for So Cal in the long range on that GFS.

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    00z Euro still thinks SoCal will get rain next Monday, although it has scaled back on totals. GFS keeps SoCal dry next week, and the Canadian CMC has abandoned the Euro and went with the drier GFS. Euro stands alone as the outlier now. The GFS might well win this one. ‘Merica!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/09613dc9742353ab33dd87f237d2b66820d14c2b1bed21588b225e616fd837df.png

    • Fairweathercactus

      It will show a ridge by tomorrow. I think it is a safe bet.

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Thank you FWC, for giving me my daily dose of disappointment…

        On a brighter note. At least the Raiders moved to Vegas and not LA!

    • weathergeek100

      Yup. This was expected. I’d be surprised if SoCal gets any precip this month. I’m betting on 0.00 from San Diego to Santa Barbara for the month of November.

    • jstrahl

      So poof goes the Bay Area storm? Can’t say i didn’t warn you. I love how the totals shrink in a narrow corridor around the Gate and resume further south.

      • No…Poof goes your front doorstep rain. Wow

        • jstrahl

          NAM 12Z does have a different idea, see CrashingOut above (45 minutes ago or so).

    • Nathan

      GFS builds the SW ridge much stronger and more northerly than the EC after this first storm, and the EC keeps it further S/SE. So the GFS sends the same bit of energy straight up the coast to WA/BC, while the EC sends the energy ESE into SoCal because there’s no ridge to block it. I think we’ll know more after this first storm.

    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      Cant see your post here, is it just me??

      • inclinejj

        Can’t see it on my windows lap top

      • You usually have to refresh comments for embed code to activate (as above).

      • Patrick from Stockton

        Me either, but if you right click and choose Open link in new tab you can see it, assuming you are on a computer

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    77 with offshore winds in Santa Maria. Hard to imagine we’re much warmer than everyone else. Why? :/

  • Shane Ritter

    Euro still sends energy south, then has another deep low by thanksgiving. Looks to be an interesting month anyway you stack it.

  • Finally the whole event is sitting within 60hr nam. Whether it falls as rain or snow, Northern Sierra going to see double digits in h2o, I won’t post snow chart but it’s still gunning for 48+ inches of Slurpee above 7k.
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017111412/nam3km_apcpn_swus_20.png

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Don’t like this one.

      • If you’re bummed out there is no soup for you, be happy the American Fishers, Bears, Raccoons, Foxes, Coyotes, Elk, Eagles, Mountain Lions, Pine Martens, Pikas, Marmots all get your soup.
        If you don’t like the NAM because it shows orography is the winner in this event, have you considered that this shows more detail than the GFS spatially and what you thought was your salvation was just spread/noise from your adjacent range?

    • CHeden

      We’ll be lucky to get 1/2″ in the north Valley.
      Many areas may see much less.
      Been the same theme all along.

      • From rags to riches…but mostly just dumps on our rags. For the bay area this is looking to be the first real sizable event of the season. The grasses are just starting to green however this will be the one that changes the hills from brown to emerald.

    • Link seems to work however embed code is broken?

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Probably Disqus is broken. It happens a lot.

        • You usually have to refresh comments for embed code to activate.

          • CHeden

            Can’t see it on my end. I just reset CHROME and still no go.
            Can’t see your tweets, too. Something with Disqus most likely?

          • perhaps yes…having problems on my end now, too. seems to be a Disqus issue, which I have no direct control over. usually these problems resolve within a day or so…

          • CHeden

            OK.
            So, what did you say?

          • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

            I saw it breifly before it dissapeared. He said the fcst went up so much tomorow because you cant just have a AR, you need some sorta low/lift to wring it out…and that it looks like a small low will form in a faovrable spot to pull the moisture out.

          • CHeden

            Your comment just posted.
            But, the tweets are still missing. Looks like they’re resolving the issues now.

        • Well, his comment was excellent – shows some serious intensity whacking wee cow land.

    • CHeden

      Please correct if I’m wrong, but isn’t this low a restrengthening remnant of the low now SW of Calif.?

    • inclinejj

      Can’t see it on my windows lap top, Chrome.

      Can see it on my iphone.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      That’s what I’ve been watching with the storms so far this fall. Maybe it’s too early for the lows to drop further south and provide the lift and forcing needed to produce strong, active fronts. So far, the lows form, spin, and push ashore in the WA and OR, and N. CA. We’ve been just getting a weak, dissipated front come crawling through further south.

      I know, I know, patience, Jason, it’s still early, patience, believe in the Weather Gods, they delivered last winter and they will this time as well.

  • Charlie B

    For the month of November (so far), the following are temperature anomalies for various places in Alaska. Barrow: +21.6. Kotzebue: +13.7. McGrath +13.6. Fairbanks: +12.7. Bethel: +11.3. Nome: +9.4. Kodiak: +4.8. Anchorage: +.7. Yakutat: -.3. Sitka: -.8. Annette: -2.5. Juneau: -5.1.

    So the North Slope, far west and interior are far above average (I don’t think the sea ice freeze up has yet occurred off of even Barrow as they continue to have high surf and beach erosion). The SE panhandle has been cooler than average.

    This tracks the temperature maps we all look at.

    • weathergeek100

      WOW. Just wow.

    • Bombillo1

      Good stuff Charlie. The extreme north is the canary, we should be keeping an eye on it.

  • AllHailPresidentCheetoJesus

    Everything looks great and we’ll see how it pans out for sure but I’m just wondering if anyone can explain why the snow levels are going to be potentially so high? I’m reading below that anything below 9K feet is going to fall as rain… Just curious is all… Thanks!!!

    • CHeden

      See my post below from a few hours ago. Looks like the colder air remains up north when the main plume of moisture is overhead.

      • AllHailPresidentCheetoJesus

        Will do, thanks!

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    12z ECMWF is in – Unsurprisingly, rain chances for SoCal next week went “Pffft…” GFS beat the EC on that one. EC suggests a storm hitting NorCal in time for Turkey Day also.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2ade9e9cea3592abb7df68299cbaf22c82e1af835afef3335188a89ef0eaddad.png

    • But wait! jstrahl’s storm is back! :))))

      • jstrahl

        Yeah, we’ll see about that. 🙂

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Is the problem of rain not reaching SoCal due to the subtropical high anchored over northern Mexico?

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        That appears to be part of the problem. La Niña is another part.

      • weathergeek100

        Yeah, I think that has a lot to do with it. It seems like the jet stream wants to go south…as it tends to do this time of year but it’s blocked by that high. I think what’s going on is the warmer than normal SSTs off the coast of baja is reinforcing that high- as Daniel mentioned may have been the result of the RRR in the past. I don’t know how that works when it comes to common sense physics but that seems to be the case. I would think warmer than normal SSTs would aid in cloud development but I guess not always….

      • Bombillo1

        Too many blasphemers and fornicators.

    • So, breaking this beauty down, there is three distinct pulses here 1. Is on our doorstep done @78 . 2. is done @156 3. is done @216.
      If the house holding the storm door frame together doesn’t collapse, by 216 the big numbers coming in short range look to be literally doubled. Tahoe is going to be bulging and Oroville will be trial by fire time.
      GIF’ing and naming this sucker. Because that means it’s guaranteed to not happen.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Turkey Day? Anything but a heat wave is fine. Love to see Black Friday campers get drenched.

  • By naming this I’ll be making it a rudderless bastard incapable of satisfying anyone. I hereby dub the incoming water parade Winter System Wild-Ass.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/17da46edcc5c26e07f8a7b289735adcc8ada407091e0c3be640438e3df8d0bfc.jpg m
    With three distinct waves depicted, what will actually happen is anybody’s wild-ass guess. Mine? The rough doubling of numbers from beginning to end in some areas is crazy enough to get me to climb aboard and ride this ass!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/60fb7cc3140f1b1f702147cfa1fbe15fe19c9d3ea63643d2593d6f1b5534c1d4.gif

    • Howard Goodman

      Cool I need one for Ragdump maybe a 15 foot one should last most of the year

      • Yolo Hoe

        Thank god for Ragdump and the surrounding topography — otherwise Lake oroville would just be a big hole in the ground

        • Howard Goodman

          I do my best to keep it full

        • Pfirman

          It has been that a few times already.

    • max

      Cool..Many thanks..

    • Bombillo1

      What happens when the earlier rain water freezes? Freeze plug?

      • annette johnson

        Good question…since it was designed at the University of AZ, freezing conditions may not have been considered lol.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          They should have run it by NAU up in Flagstaff. Lol.

          • annette johnson

            For sure!

      • Put in a base of antifreeze and zero it out.

  • Fairweathercactus

    I will say by tomorrows Euro 0z will show no rain south of the point conception is it starts to see the evil GFS ridge.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      The “evil GFS ridge” isn’t quite what I’d call “evil”. More like “Naughty”. It looks impressive when viewing the 850hpa anomaly chart, but the temperatures on Thanksgiving don’t look bad, even for SoCal. Temps low to mid 80’s. Actually not unheard of in these parts.

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7eb0141c97f86c79025993dd440508bf31e4cb2b62eddd52cd194e880c3cbe10.png

      • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

        looking nice for the annual family thanksgiving trip to la jolla.

        eh then again the whole family lives in so cal or AZ, so this nice 80d weather in late Nov is pretty run of the mill for them.

        coming from the 50’s to low 60’s last few weeks I’ll take it.

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        Yeah, having a warm Thanksgiving in the 80’s isn’t unheard of. Even Xmas can be toasty. But ridges deny us much needed rainfall.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Ugh, Santa Maria just passed 80. I hate those pesky offshore winds.

  • Farmer47

    I hope I’m wrong but I’m thinking so cal isn’t going to see any “rain” till early Jan
    Guessing we get a fairly wet march and april to help make up for the late start.

  • Freddy66

    With the way things are going in So Cal I’d take a cold inside slider one of these days. Seems like these have been few and far between the last several years. Sure looks pretty bleak for those of us down here who don’t like 80 degree highs in November.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      This is great! Perfect starting amount to get the soils going…1-2″ would just wash away.

      Start slow, end strong is a nice classic SoCal La Niña winter… Hopefully a few surprises sneak in as well…

  • Bombillo1

    Looks like our first AR is loading up. Not much of a fetch but last season I saw an AR polymerize within 200 miles of shore so a big fetch going off to Hawaii is not necessarily important. Seems to be setting up correctly however, with the GOA L steering and sub-trop feeding.

    ww.goes.noaa.gov/dml/west/nhem/weus/rb.html

  • AntiochWx

    The good news is northern California finally looks to cash in quite nicely. The bad news, Places south of Pt. Conception are going to struggle to see any major rainfall anytime soon. The really bad news, we have been in a relatively favorable troughy pattern ever since November 1st when the ridge relocated near the Aleutians, and once these next couple storms roll through, those favorable conditions might become less favorable as we enter the last half of November. So really any major rainfall may not come to at least the beginning of December for those in the south, and even then we have to cross our fingers.

    • Since 1950 or so only two La Nina’s have done okay for CA Climate Division 6 also known as South Coast Drainage (LACW): 2010-11 and last year.

      • AlTahoe

        So it sounds like their only hope is for an AR to sag down there way.

        • Maybe more like a direct hit. To get an above average year down there in a La Nina is close to sucking out the river with one of two outs.

      • AntiochWx

        and last year wasn’t very La Nina ish. We were coming off a near record El Nino that didn’t really translate into the atmospheric dynamics until the following year aka El Nino hangover.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        It could be our best shot for a decent pattern in SoCal would be during late February and March as the Niña influence wanes. I do recall some interesting cold storms hitting around that time during one of those Niñas back in the ’80s.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      There are some hints of a pattern change at the very end of the month as that big N Pacific ridge may break down. (I’m basing that on some of the things Michael Ventrice tweeted out today) Maybe a potential for a more progressive zonal pattern?

      • thlnk3r
      • AntiochWx

        It could, I really hope it does, that would allow at least some more moisture transport. The main problem stems from La Nina, the subtropical jet just isn’t very active in the negative ENSO phase. On top of that we recently have to always contend with that pesky baja ridge. The sad thing is, that baja ridge hasn’t even flexed much this winter so far, wait until that thing really wants to misbehave.

        • Cap’n

          When you say it hasn’t flexed this winter so far, do you mean the winter that starts in a month?

          • AntiochWx

            I’ve always personally considered November to be a winter month. November is really truly the beginning of our rainy season, which in my opinion is winter.

    • BRP (Ventura)

      It’s like a broken record, “…areas south of Pt. Conception get nothing…”. Seriously, my northern CA brethren, I know there is a schism between north and south, I respect that, but with 60% of the state’s population living below Pt. Conception, another drought winter just puts more strain on any and all local water sources. And when those go dry, the state water aqueduct will be the only source of H2O (along with CO River), stressing out that system to levels that may not be supportable. Plus, do you all want some of these 22 million people moving north to escape the drought and depressing landscape? I bet not!

      • AntiochWx

        I’m not one to get all caught up in that schism, I mostly forecast based on general trends, not because I dislike SoCal. I wish they could get every ounce of rain northern California does, but I don’t see any favorable pattern there in the near future. At least through the end of this month. The jury is still out for December. It sucks we are entering into a La Nina, that already bodes poorly climatologically for SoCal.

      • thlnk3r

        Don’t waste your time. The cheese is strong with the whine on this board lately. However there is one main thing missing from the “bad news” posts and that is hype words. If the cheese & whine club is reading this…..please include hype words (ie. devastating, unprecedented, record-breaking). It’s much more entertaining.

    • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

      I’ll start freaking out if December starts acting funny. I don’t think we can get too upset at a dry fall, it happens.

      • AntiochWx

        If long range Euro is correct, it would go a long ways in increasing Decembers precip chances for SoCal. Zonal flows are almost always a good sign for SoCal, provided the baja ridge isn’t in place to flex the moisture stream into the north-central parts of the state.

        • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

          Has that Baja ridge been keeping away inside sliders also?

          • AntiochWx

            At least for the southern most part of the state. The Baja ridge hasn’t been strong enough to flex the storms completely away from the state, but just enough influence to keep SoCal dry. One exception was when the ridge flexed as it transitioned into the GOA and then into the Aleutians, during this transition, but has since returned. I have been collecting screen shots of all the Euro runs since the beginning of October, when I have time I will loop the images together and post it here.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    BA, “3-11 inches at lake level.”

  • AlTahoe

    Well at least the 18z got rid of that subtropical AR for early next week that had been showing up for a couple of runs. I would much rather ski on a nice 3′ base of sierra cement at Heavenly in a T-shirt then watch it all get washed away. Skiing this Saturday and Sunday should be pretty good.

    • If last year is any indication, that mayhem is all but inevitable. I have an injury still from 9500 foot rain-induced-ice-slabs in ’15. This year the only casualty was, quite literally as I was moving out of Donner summit, not my knees as I expected with all the ice and rain this year, but instead I fell on my hip and bent the crap out of my Note 4. It turned my Samsung into an LG G-Flex.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    NWS Bay Area AFD 2:07 PM
    This boundary will tap into a rich moisture plume (atmospheric river) that will help to enhance locally heavy rainfall. The 12z GFS indicates maximum integrated vapor transport (ivt) values exceeding 700 kg/M/S off the California coast by midday Wednesday and eventually moving onshore by the evening… North Bay hills/mountains can expect about 2-3″ of rain with locally higher amounts possible, particularly for southwest-facing slopes. The Santa Cruz Mountains can also expect moderate to heavy rain amounts with 2-4+” forecast. For other locations, 1-2″ is forecast for the North Bay valleys, 0.75-2″ for urban areas of the San Francisco Bay area, and 0.50-1″ for the Monterey peninsula.

    • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      I wish they would note that shadowed valleys will see much less than most normal urban areas.

  • AntiochWx

    Curious, is there any sites out there that have monitored daily MSLP data for the bay area? I want to see the trend line in variance of strong LP systems. A lof of people on here are convinced the bay area doesn’t get deep LP systems that drop down from the GOA like they used too, which very possibly has validity to the statement. I just wanted to do some statistical analysis on that statement. I know last Febuary I had 987mb. When was the last sub 985mb low to come into the bay?

    • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      I am one of those folks. I am 35, so it’s really the 1990s storms I miss.

      • AntiochWx

        We might be seeing less overall LP occuring like below 1000mb, but even then I can’t confirm it until I look over the distribution pattern throughout the last 50 years.

        • Bombillo1

          In very N Cal we had a 29.02 last season, I even took a picture of it. Calibration is an issue however, who is calibrating correctly if it is a private device?

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
          • AntiochWx

            That is a good question. I know your reading is consistent with NWS numbers in SFO for that day, mine is also similar and I have the Davis machine like Great Winter of 2017 does. I know Davis is pretty good about calibrating older equipment if you send it in to them, but other systems I’m not sure who would calibrate it for you, contact your manufacture.

          • Bombillo1

            I believe it needs to be tarred against elevation and humidity. Some of that daily. Pilots have to do this constantly.

      • Won’t find great years like those bunched up together for some time.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      I had around 983 MB that day which equates to 29.00 inches of mercury which I think is one of the lowest readings in the SF Bay ever.

      • AntiochWx

        See I had a feeling those statements might be incorrect. I’m looking at wunderground data for SFO going back to 1960s and I haven’t seen any below 985mb and even few below 990mb. I’ve only looked through Feb so far, but I really want to get a complete analysis going, I will check in over the next few months with what I find.

        • Henry

          I recall that the December 1995 storm and the January 2008 storm had barometric pressures below 29 inches (983 mb) in San Francisco. The minimum pressures offshore were 960-970 mb.

          • AntiochWx

            That might be the last recent big one to effect the bay area. Would be nice to see a list of top 10 lowest readings.

    • AlTahoe

      Maybe the January 2010 storm? I know that Reno and Tahoe set all time record lowest pressures.

      https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/storm-battering-california-sets-record-low-pressure-mark.html

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        That storm was epic Kirkwood recorded 10 feet (3.0 m) of snow in 48 hours!

    • MSLP and ULL look/are very different though.

      • AntiochWx

        Right, but wherever the ULL is located, the surface low isn’t to far away to the East. Unless they are stacked, then the surface low is underneath the ULL. You can use the ULL to find the MSLP, they are related.

  • alanstorm

    IVT (moisture transport) forecast for Thrus/Fri.
    If you don’t live in an orographically favoured area, try holding up a 8×10 peice of plywood towards the west.

    P.S. Thank you discus for posting maps in the wrong order ?
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/469a9199a7ff7b9633fb939f19ec74a9e81975c3611705709bdbb56eb39afd18.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/890ea60890eee68894698ebe48cdf905f815bbc33deba886463e974331d9da4c.png

  • Admode (Susanville)

    Just looked at the weather report, the ville could get 1.5″ inches of rain tomorrow/tomorrow night. My work site could get 6″ of snow tomorrow. Dang!

  • SoCalWXwatcher
    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Everything

    • Wow…..Lol

    • This looks…fine to me?

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        The Western states’ ridge depiction featuring a low pressure center within it struck me as quite odd.

        • It’s essentially an “omega block,” with upper-level ridging over the Northern Rockies but a surface low pressure center over the Four Corners region. In this diagram, there are ridge axes just offshore California and in East Texas. My guess is the plotted quantity is the 200 or 500 mb GPH field. So it’s not wrong, pe se, just confusing.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            Hmm. Not sure their graphics department takes all that into account, but it does come across confusing.

          • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

            I didn’t realize surface LP could form under a high like that. Is this essentially how the summer monsoon works also, with thermal lows under huge HP domes?

          • AntiochWx

            Yeah, it’s clearly an upper air map, but they put in the surface low pressure due to the ridging to the east and west. Confusing, but I understand why they did it. Typical omega block winter pattern when surface lows come out of the Rockies.

          • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

            It’s essentially a cut off low to some degree right? It’ll drift off into the GOM eventually I guess.

          • AntiochWx

            No, essentially it is a piece of energy that splits off the west coast storm that slips under the ridge and forms a LP on the leeward side of the Rockies, it is quite common in winter time it’s called a “Colorado Low” that usually forms near La Junta or La Junta low. This low will dive down towards the gulf states and swing around the east coast trough out to sea.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            It’s not a cutoff low. I haven’t come across a model plot that shows this feature, either on the surface, or aloft, or underground. LOL. (I may have missed it), if anyone has a plot showing a large surface low over Utah for the period Mon-Wed of next week, (or the two mini-ridges on either side of it) please post, cause its starting to drive me nuts now. And I might not have enough single-malt left to pull me through. LOL

          • AntiochWx

            I don’t like how they posted a large L, itsn’t really representative of whats going on. It is only energy slipping under the base of the ridge which developes an area of LP near Colorado/Texas. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ebc0308fc2a7e99fbb7e5dfc4a584bb37304d8109e8bad253a86ab9f29ce6720.png

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            Yeah the way they depicted it, as though that big green area over West are height contours of a large low pressure on top of Utah/4 Corners is at best misleading, and more likely a booboo in the graphics dept. I do see that small LP over the Texas panhandle. I’m not sure that’s what they were getting at. Thanks for posting!

            I think Accuweather handled it better. LOL

            https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/930623670577455104

          • AntiochWx

            The area of LP they have listed is technically correct. It’s just not a full blow LP, its a “disturbance” or atmospheric energy, they are the initial seeds of a LP devolpment. It’s just energy rounding the base of the ridge, that will form a true well defined area of low pressure near the SE Colorado/Texas panhandle.

          • AntiochWx

            Their’s is also correct, by the time Thanksgiving comes around Thursday, the energy that is over SE Colorado is already ejected out into the gulf states leaving mild dry air over the 4 corners. The weather channel graphic is for Mon-Wed.

          • I think I need to sign up for pre-K meteorology class after this thread! :))

          • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

            Daniel is surely reading our replies snickering and laughing at our foolishness.

            Armchair meteorologists!

          • This discussion and frustration is probably the best thread we’ve had going in quite some time. 🙂

          • AntiochWx

            Nah, I’m sure he understands not everyone is privy to the more advanced concepts of meteorology. Heck even qualified mets don’t get it right all the time. I’m just glad we have a forum/blog we can share our passions for weather.

          • AntiochWx

            You guys beat yourselves up to hard!

          • Cap’n

            If you need pre-K, I need the ages 0-1 course. This is like reading Chinese on a bathroom wall.

          • I slammed my laptop shut when TT kept freezing. I looked on NCEP site and couldn’t find any map with those features. I guess we’re dumber than dirt.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            Could be. My wife has called me worse.

          • AntiochWx

            You guys aren’t dumb, some of these things are quite complicated to understand. I still can’t understand a lot of things in meteorology, especially on the physics side of predictions, I’m far and away from Daniel and others level. I know of some really good met books if you guys are interested, you can read them, great intro and intermediate level information.

          • Sure. I know I’m a loose cannon when it comes to reading weather mapss

          • jstrahl

            John B Lockwood, Causes of Climate, 1979, was the basic text we used in my global warming class in Fall ’89 at UC Berkeley (taught by Dr Orman Granger).

          • Stormin’ Orman! I TA’ed his meteorology class at Cal. What a character. I’ll never forget his risque jokes about ‘dirty fronts!’

          • jstrahl

            Damn, he didn’t tell us that. 🙂 Maybe because we didn’t do much weather, we were much more focused on climate (i.e. long term). We did discuss some on going weather events, e.g. Hurricane Hugo and the storm of 10/23/89, 6 days after Loma Prieta quake. He boasted about nailing the forecast of a miracle March for March ’89 and had high confidence in his forecast for ’89-90 of a “drought buster.” Didn’t happen!

          • Dan the Weatherman

            He predicted the Miracle March 2 years too early!

          • jstrahl

            March ’89 was actually quite wet. Not as much as ’91, but over twice average, basically saved the ’88-89 season from being disappointing, whereas March ’91 saved the ’90-91 season from being a total disaster.

          • I’ll give you confusing. If this is what TWC expects it’s sofa audience to understand?

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    I wonder if this storm tomorrow is worth a Weather West blog
    post, I sure hope so!

  • Nookx-Weather

    So I’m doing what Altahoe told me not to do. I’m sitting on weather underground’s precipitation page and refreshing the projected rainfall for my location and it has slowly dropped all day. The weather tilt is inc.

    • AlTahoe

      I find that you take their initial total and divide by 4 that is what you will get with the storm 🙂
      Now that there is some dynamics coming in with the storm, there is a chance a wave could form and give somebody a nice surprise.

  • CHeden

    I’m waiting for a convergence line to set up on Thursday.
    In the meantime, will have to be content with reading everybody else’s whoa’s and woes.

    • Cap’n

      The woes will far outnumber the whoas.

      • Howard Goodman

        Ya think !

      • Howard Goodman
        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          Another question for the man who lives in one of the most rainy places in the Lower 48, what’s the most rain you’ve gotten in one day?

          • Howard Goodman

            10 inches in a day but there’s been more , before I lived here full time JAN. 1 1997 Fourtrees station got 15.5 and I usually get more

          • Howard Goodman

            Last year even though it was the all time rain year record we didn’t get a giant rain day 7 inches in one day was the biggest , if there would have been a big rain day the Oroville Emergency spillway would have gone and it would have been the biggest disaster Northern Calif. has seen

        • jstrahl

          Was this your driveway this past winter?

          • Howard Goodman

            Yes but that’s not the worse it got , it got a little past the tree with the flag but it was in the middle of the night

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    I hope this upcoming event meets or exceeds expectations for you, our Northern brethren. We down South are living vicariously through you!

    https://twitter.com/SandhyaABC7/status/930629523321663488

    • Idaho Native

      Nearly 2″ in SF? I’m highly skeptical…

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Yeah, I’m calling for half of this at the most. But – we could be wrong.

        • Cap’n

          Pre-bust blues? I’ll one up you; I don’t think it’s even going to rain.

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            LOL, you made me spit some of my Shocktop onto my keyboard. At least it didn’t go up my nostrils…

          • Idaho Native

            I’m wondering where the sudden increase in precip totals came from? Is the front expected to stall? Better moisture tap? Dynamics?

          • mycoholic

            Didn’t you hear? This storm is a total bust. Regardless of what happens in the next 48 hours. Total bust.

        • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

          Agreed. 0.50 in San Jose max. Unfortunately, being realistic does not minimize the dissapoinment these AR events tend to bring to my area. Hoping this one has dynamics, but won’t bet on it.

      • mycoholic

        For sure. It’s 24 hours before this storm arrives and I haven’t gotten a single drop. Storm is a bust. ;-P

    • I must see all of the e-Wall maps layered first.

    • Rusty Rails

      I’ll be walking around SF between dinner and a concert when the worst is supposed to hit there tomorrow, then later home over 17 when the front is over the SC Mountains. This system will overperform to spite me for mocking the fizzled HYPE of the past.

      • jstrahl

        Funny, i’ll also be on my way to a show tomorrow around 7:30-8, luckily i only have to go 10 blocks or so. Best of luck!

        • Rusty Rails

          We’ll definitely be switching up to somewhere to eat closer to the Bill Graham if it gets really wet. Not much choice on the drive back, though! Hopefully the winds don’t verify.

          • Yolo Hoe

            I’ll be hydroplaning on my bike through Davis

    • shampeon

      I like Hayward very nearly being the highest total.

      • Nathan

        Yeah, how often does that happen…

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    It’s been awhile since we’ve seen a forecast weather graphic out of the Sac. NWS site like this.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/09c79618b0a439b687e62b30532e1ade049331d9cfaeee00f07fa24ab9d50aa3.png

    • “It’s Only November” 😉

    • shampeon

      How often do winter storm warnings abut red flag warnings?

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        It’s because of the winds forecast. If the rains come in with the increasing winds, it’ll negate the fire danger, obviously….

  • Nate
    • Eddie Garcia

      Man 2 inch plus in Sac and parts of the bay area, if this storm stalls than I would not be surprised if these totals materialize. BRING IT ON!

      • alanstorm

        It may not need to stall as slow & sluggish as this AR is projected to be tomorrow.
        We had a few of these the last 2 winters.

    • jstrahl

      🙂 🙂 So now Berkeley gets more rain than Willits? Stranger things have happened, but sitting here i just say i don’t know.

      • alanstorm

        That’s AFTER the cold front slowly sweeps thru my area earlier tomorrow, so I’m pretty sure we’ll end up with more than Bezerkley

  • mycoholic

    18Z brings the love back for the storm early next week. That 12Z was ugly though…

    • Cap’n

      I think you’re one Z outta step

    • Eddie Garcia

      lol the 12z gave me a panic attack

    • alanstorm

      18z = LAME
      00Z = goes full storm

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    NAM shows 3.25 inches of rain for San Francisco, wtf!

    • Cap’n

      Use Al’s formula you’ll get .8125

    • Sublimesl

      It supposes a very narrow band that gets stalled exactly over the central bay area.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        If that verifies maybe a flood watch may be needed to be issued or maybe a flash flood watch.

        • alanstorm

          For the burn areas for sure.
          All other drainages in the area are totally dry currently, but should be the first decent runoff for Sanoma & Marin Counties.

    • matthew

      0z gfs is showing 2+ from sf to Santa cruz.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        GFS shows 1.8 inches falling in 6 hours here.

  • Apotropaic

    has anyone applied deep learning / “AI” to weather and/or climate prediction? it seems like these techniques all the rage for certain problems nowadays. i doubt they would do much for the short-term numerical simulations (i.e. models) but could be useful in identifying analogue years based on collections of (e.g.) SSTA images, correlating these to outcomes, making predictions…

    • matthew

      I have been wanting to find time one of these years to run some datasets through machine learning algorithms (i.e. SVM and the like) to see what it spits out. The big challenge for me is finding sources of good historical data. The more the better as svms are really good at sorting through what is relevant and what is not. If I ever get bored enough I will give it a whack some day.

      • I have raised this issue in an atmospheric/climate context with quite a few folks in Silicon Valley. Initial interest has been extremely high, but these interactions have (invariably) faded away as soon as I provide more details regarding the practical challenges and spatiotemporal complexity involved.

        One issue is labeling: what exactly is, for example, a “blocking ridge?” Most meteorologists don’t even agree on a formal definition. Supervised learning, therefore, is a challenge.

        Another issue is applying these analyses in what is essentially 4-dimensional space (3 space + 1 time). I realize there are ways to compress dimensions, but in general this can be a problem.

        That said, I doubt these challenges are insurmountable. I have no machine learning expertise myself, but have been seeking willing/interested collaborators on a project like this for several years. So far: no serious takers. But if you know someone who would be interested, please do feel free to reach out to me at my UCLA email address. 🙂

        • Apotropaic

          Just some thoughts, I’m not an expert in ML or weather.

          As you mentioned, station timeseries are probably not as useful as geogridded data a.k.a. maps of historical weather observations. Things like SSTA, temp anomaly etc would be especially great since they’re already normalized. Does this dataset exist? If not it might need to be created as a public resource and intermediate step to applying image-based ML algorithms to specific tasks. An archive of identically-sized images of plotted worldwide would be wonderful. They’d pretty much enable anyone with a bit of time and a laptop to throw ML at weather data. In fact, long-term, a weather prediction contest similar to the kaggle ML contest should be set up, encouraging the use of weather as a problem domain to test ML.

          Mesoscale features aren’t easily described by simple collections of observations in the data we have. But if meteorologists can semi-reliably spot them on a map (or collection of maps), a NN could too, and could be trained to recognize one. Whether it could be trained on the conditions preceding these examples, and get better than humans at predicting future occurrences, is less certain. But it definitely seems like the advantages of ML (reliably integrating distributed microfeatures, for one) could be helpful.

          • Bombillo1

            Nice thread guys.

    • Sublimesl

      Maybe not enough historical data? Successes in deep learning have resulted from millions of simulations of a relatively narrow problem issue. Weather around the world is a huge amount of data.

      • Apotropaic

        An archive of reports from all official weather stations would be a wonderful data set. I’m sure it exists but costs a lot of money.

        http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/rev/remotedata/ward.php

        basically this, but everywhere.

        • Definitely available, and definitely free. As is most weather data.

          • Apotropaic

            great! open data all the day.

            how far back is this coverage ~complete or reliable? it seems really surprising that no one would have already taken a lot of free, textual, standard-formatted data and thrown a neural net at it to find patterns or make predictions.

          • AntiochWx

            Can you link us to some reliable sources? I want to see if you have other links that I’m not aware of now.

        • matthew

          I thin think you need more than weather stations. For example, pacific sst’s over a long period of time, among others.

          • Exactly. Individual station time series are probably not going to yield broader insights (relative to geographically explicit data on a grid box basis).

      • Charlie B

        Real historical data that goes back a few hundred years. Also, data points continue to be few and far between. They say that Mt. Baker Ski Area holds the record for snowfall at 1100” plus but I am relatively certain that there are many unreported places (maybe above Valdez, Haines, or perhaps the coast of B.C) that have seen that much or more and maybe even average that much. I wonder now why when we look at NWS point and click maps that show that 12,876”on the south side of Mt. Rainier (or Mt. Shasta per Cap’n) will receive 134” of snow in the next 4 days, we never say “really. A I is good, and A I is fine, but without boots on the ground A I is clueless. That is why A I, as we speak, is placing, strategically, little dime sized sensors in every nook and cranny of the earth. That is what so called “contrails” are. Little tiny sensors carpeting the earth and seas and collecting data including temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, wind speed and direction and then transporting that information back to an Islsnd off Crete where super computers compile and digest it all. We call that the “ECMWS.”

    • Telegraph Hill

      I had this same realization several months ago. As with every good idea, others are working on it already. https://www.techemergence.com/ai-for-weather-forecasting/

      • So far, all the private endeavors (IBM, Panasonic, etc.) have produced fairly…incremental…advancements beyond what already exists. These companies are essentially providing statistical adjustments to regular old weather model forecasts (the Panasonic model is literally consists of the dynamical core of the GFS–the codebase for which is freely available from the US government–plus some tweaks to the observational assimilation system).

        This may indeed produce somewhat better forecasts on the ground in a limited context (and has clearly been a cost effective strategy so far). But I still think there are much more interesting, fundamental, and important applications of machine learning in an atmospheric context.

    • jstrahl

      Analog years notion is based upon essential circularity in weather patterns. The global weather system has never been like that. Relatively stable at times, but some slow shifts. And now, less than ever, major shifts in short time periods. Current conditions are unprecedented not only since records, but in many ways since before humans developed language, or even earlier.

  • alanstorm

    I like the way this storm is setting up for tomorrow: nice deepening low spinning slowly towards the coast, & ample moisture streaming in from the south.
    Should get some gusty winds with it & maybe thunderstorms Thursday?
    Obviously the big question is how far south the action goes, at least some of SoCal will get streaming, onshore flow.
    I’m saying some decent cells in the Redding/Red Bluff areas will be worth watching for when the colder-air low comes ashore
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c72705339b534eb0aed3dc50321ce41c5d625e05aaecdb46057335177eb8f7ff.jpg

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      I saw some decent cells behind the front on the NAM here, some hail would be fun

      • alanstorm

        Anything south of
        Pt. Conception will be minimal with this current set up,
        maybe a drizzle fest Thursday.
        All I can say is it’s STILL early in the game & far SoCal often gets dry starts to winters, with just a few solid storms to get those yearly averages.

      • Bombillo1

        We got quite a bit of hail here from last night’s grand finale (3000′ pass above the ranch) which remained on the ground all day. This storm will have a much larger tropical component, certainly expect much less frozen stuff. A whisp of the AR is passing over now with no water falling yet.

    • Tom & Koyano Gray

      So Cal not gettin anything . 20% chance Thursday night evaporated with the latest runs. High pressure over Baja nixed that.
      .

      • alanstorm

        Anything south of Pt. Conception will be minimal with this current set up, maybe a drizzle-fest Thursday.
        All I can say is that it’s STILL early in the game & far SoCal often gets dry starts to winter, with just a few solid storms to get to those yearly averages

    • Yolo Hoe

      And the other big question with this storm being SNOWPACK contribution — will the model fueled optimism of Crash overcome the warm storm skepticism of Cap’n? Stay tuned for Friday’s tally.

      • Cap’n

        Donner Summit forecast at game time. Above 8,500 ft should get a couple few feet, everything below is up in the air. Gauge is waiting patiently down here, wind is just starting.

        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9b415fa8b734968248641d08afccac310715cd6bb542a77485c70c962eda5ad3.png

      • alanstorm

        This is your typical warm, sluggish AR, the type that brings hefty precipitation totals for those mountains, & DRIZZLE FEST disappointments to the lowlands.
        Snowlevels hopefully will drop Thursday with the cold low coming ashore- I’m looking at a low of 33° at 2000ft

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          Disappointments to the lowlands do you mean rain shadowed areas like SJ? I know Daniel was talking about poor dynamics with this storm several days back, but I wonder what he thinks now about what’s forecasted.

          • alanstorm

            Not totally. This looks like (IMO) a slow moving rain event for the entire Bay Area, but with these warm AR type deals, the hills absolutely get drenched while you’re getting drizzle.
            I’m sure you’ll get some downpours when the front passes thru u late tomorrow.
            Good news for all, it’s a SLOW MOVER

        • weathergeek100

          Drizzle fests in rain-shadowed areas- yes. But the lowlands like Berkeley and Oakland tend to see gentle, steady moderate long-duration rain during these events. Perfect for the soil to soak up water instead of super heavy rain resulting in water just running off.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    I gotta tell ya, I’m sceptical about the upcoming rain event being a real soaker. Based on what I’m seeing with the atmospheric dynamics in play, this is being overblown. I’d love to be wrong and the forecasts correct, but here is my view.

    Look at the water vapor sequence link. 1. Two subtropical slugs of moisture coming up from the SW. They don’t seem to be merging and may actually rob energy from one another as they near the coast. 2. The critical component is the cold low, nearly stationary, off British Columbia, and not moving south. Without it, the cold dynamics will be absent and precipitation lacking.

    Like I wrote – please make me wrong and eat a helping of crow Mother Nature. Just let me drink a few beers first!

    http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/#/animation?satellite=goes-west&end_datetime=latest&n_images=8&coverage=conus&channel=03&image_quality=gif&anim_method=flash

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3478ff0cfa05610a131da39aef397580a747b7074fe10466b656052ac106957a.png

  • Fairweathercactus

    Have you ever showed up late to a party and where hungry? Then you went to see if any food was left? That is what So Cal is about to get this week! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0faebf6a0389072b2a46e4bf2921cd70d888c0e11fc5dfeddae6dc2727ab74f0.jpg

    • jstrahl

      What, no nopales on the slice?

    • weathergeek100

      For SoCal, that little half a slice won’t even be there!

      Oh well. Maybe it’ll rain next month! If not then, maybe in January. If not this season, maybe next season!

      • Fairweathercactus

        On todays model run nothing left at all.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    WUnderground predicts .20″ while Accu predicts .30″ in Santa Maria for Thursday’s storm. I’ll be just plain happy if we get at least .10″. These storms need fuel to get to at least the Ventura area. The storm killing blob in the Gulf of California can eat itself.

  • AntiochWx

    For anyone else confused about the weather channel graphic earlier, I made this graphic to try and illustrate how the energy is undercutting the ridge. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4df339e6bcafaa6c3ec26bd4a03859d6cb52c9af8ab95e5feba0e7394ca03f83.png

  • Bombillo1
    • alanstorm

      Whoah! Somebody has too much time on his hands…
      & are u sure that isn’t CHeden’s casa?

      • Bombillo1

        Playing with iPhone. Do think the arrow is too South?

        • alanstorm

          No, it looks exactly pointed at Big Bend.

          It would be hard for me to live in Big Bend & not always call it
          Big Bendover

  • AntiochWx

    Welp, the 00z run certainly shows a stronger ridge in the medium range. Baja ridge decides it wants to flex.

    • alanstorm

      00Z looks like it flings more subtropical-type moisture at us around the 20th.

      • Bombillo1

        WU upped our rain for the 20th, still just .58

        • alanstorm

          We’ll see how the 20th looks tomorrow.
          Subtropical moisture is really starting to belch up like so much acid reflux from the Equator

      • Bombillo1

        The sub trop moisture is distinctly split (as noted by Jason Jackson Will). This event does not have me trembling in my Sorrels. How is it sizing up from the pre-game hype??

        • alanstorm

          I like the fact that it’s a slow-mover & moisture-loaded.
          North Bay could see some hydro issues with the fire burned areas, Caltrans was busting a move up here trying to fix the burned freeway between Ukiah & Willits.
          Could be messy if the front stalls out

          • Bombillo1

            There does not seem to be much moisture infusion from the Seattle L which is doing exactly what the last 3 Ls there did, mainly steering. Seems that the fuel is coming from the S and it is a bit wimpy at this point. Am I being too harsh on this much talked about storm?

  • Taz & Storm Master

    lol the 0z brings back the monday storm why the 06z takes it away

  • Euro still says yes, GFS actually trended up several inches for snow, euro doesn’t show as much for bay as it’s not picking up enough detail – still decent however the NAM says all aboard the rain train, bringing pain and something to drain to the homeless camps of the bay 2 inches low 4+ higher up/hills: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c2173bbb9ca5491eee76abd364e4f728f05f5acbce5abce15d17e233d156f75b.png
    Orinda 3-5 inches???
    Tallack is going to buried under 5+ feet if snow levels stay below 9k. NAM says yes to that, HRRR needs another 15 hours or so.

    • I’ve been in homeless camps. That kinda sh^^t you type needs to be channeled someplace else.

      • ??? My girlfriend lives down the street from a big one – they are in a flat area of Oakland under a series of overpasses. It’s going to flood for sure, and they have bad drainage problems. They actually have my concern and sympathies, it’s not fun to be wet and without a roof. Perhaps you took my comment as to meaning they are a drain or they need to be drained? They aren’t. The encampment by Gilman street, Northgate, and the off MLK are going to be hammered unfortunately.
        I build habitat for humanity homes, don’t get the wrong impression from me.

  • Bombillo1

    Reindeer hooves on the roof now. 4:30 AM

    • Chris

      Good analogy! I like that.

    • Cap’n
      • weathergeek100

        So for Wednesday night, a total snowstorm according to weatherdotwrong and a total rainstorm according to the NWS. Two completely different types of weather. Pretty sure the latter is correct. I don’t know how these commercial agancies survive with all of these ridiculously wrong forecasts. Innacuweather thinks it can forecast the weather 90 days in advance and weatherdotwrong cannot take in microclimates (seriously, growing up in San Diego, they would forecast a high of 75 at the beach and 82 15 miles inland in Escondido when it was really 92 there- how wrong can you get?). I think the reason they won’t shut down is because they still have a lot of viewers. Many of those viewers probably aren’t even aware that a much more accurate NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE exists.

      • weathergeek100

        Oh, and don’t even get me started with their naming of winter storms. What a silly joke. Also, their east coast bias. C’mon now, don’t we need a name for the FEET of snow expected to fall above 8000′??? But no, we need a name for the 2″ of snow that will fall in New York City.

        • Cap’n

          Agree about the naming of storm. I was in Utah some years back for winter storm “Gandolf”. I did score a good day on the mountain with 10″ of snow or so, but nothing like the 30-40″ they warned of, along with a complete crippling of Salt Lake City which ended up with maybe 3″ of snow. Honestly, 2-4 feet above 8K in the Sierra is really run of the mill, that’s why I keep giving Crash crap. I’ve been reading snow blogs for some years and I don’t think I’ve ever seen someone hype up 2-4 feet above 8K so much, but I love the enthusiasm. Ski resorts would love someone like that writing for their pages, bringing the masses up here to ride “powder” the top 300 feet of a mountain. Mt. Rose and Mammoth will be the winners. Rain is picking up here.

        • Rusty Rails

          Winter Storm Son of HYPE

  • Idaho Native

    Most of what’s showing on the radar in the Bay Area is virga still. .01″ overnight in Tiburon. Hopefully this’ll moisten up the low levels perfectly for our main event

    • Sublimesl

      Getting some drops here in Oakland Hills.

    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      Raining in orinda. Lightly. But consistent.

  • CHeden

    Pretty much as expected, light, big drop rain up here in Cottonwood this a.m., with no surface wind other than a few puffs of cool NW air filtering down from the hills.
    Radar seems to be overdoing the precip, as others have also been noting.
    Actual rain rate is around 0.05″/hr.
    Offshore Cape Mendocino, it looks like the leading edge of cyclonic flow has reached the tropical moisture plume…but so far with only minor interaction. The area SW of the King range is showing the best uptick. Honeydew could be a big winner if this enhanced precip area continues.

    • alanstorm

      This should be an all day rain event so I’m hoping a wide range of real estate gets a slow soaking.
      Today- North Bay, tonight-entire Bay Area for a hellish commute!
      I really think the winds will get roaring today, especially near the coast with such a good collision of the cold low into all this warm subtropical moisture.

      • CHeden

        That’s the problem…they’re not really “colliding”. The juicier air aloft and the cool, dry air below dry are staying isolated….just as we were noting several days ago (perVIS sat imagery) regarding our last system….there’s just no dynamics.

        • alanstorm

          An AR drizzle-fest until the cold front passage this afternoon, right?

          • Pfirman

            That raises a question. Is it just me or are there a lot more drizzle fests these days than in the past?

          • Bombillo1

            It’s an artifact of these Seattle Ls that have been happening for at least a month. Essentially stationary, not progressive as they have been historically.

          • Pfirman

            I should have been more precise. By these days I mean the last few years, say three to five, versus late last century. I do know Seattle used to get a lot of drizzle, so much they called it liquid sunshine and kept on golfing.

          • Bombillo1

            I don’t know. We got 140 inches last rain season….

          • Pfirman

            That is why it is called BIG Bend, right? Like Rag DUMPage.

          • Bombillo1
          • Pfirman

            You had an epic winter. On a somber note, I remember driving east out of Redding on 299 toward Pit country and seeing the results of a fire that turned the blacktop to glass. This was some while ago. Forget when.

          • Bombillo1

            1991 Fountain Fire. I had only been here a year and watched as my whole life’s savings almost sprouted wings.

          • Pfirman

            That was it. Thanks. We were visiting some friends of my wife who were living in a trailer in Big Bend at the time. Hell of a drive.

          • alanstorm

            Orange Sunshine???

          • alanstorm

            Same thing happened quite a few times the last 2 winters. Sluggish ARs with little dynamics but decent precip totals over the hills.
            It’s s RIVER, after all

          • CHeden

            IMHO, I heartily concur.
            No Storms (lows)=No Lift=All drizzle and AR’s
            Nowadays it’s headline news if a low gets within 500 miles.

          • CHeden

            Pretty much. Hoping the CF holds together. There are still some signs in the models of a brief surface circulation setting up near the Cape that would put Willits in the favorable SE quadrant..as well as adding some punch to the CF swinging in in back of it. If so, then look for enhanced activity mostly west/over the Yolla Bolly.

      • Yolo Hoe

        Steady rainfall here in Davis — perfect bicycle commute conditions for meditation on thankfulness to Pacha Pacific for allowing another rainy season to commence and quench our parched Northern GCV soils

        • Pfirman

          Amen. Let’s hope the exciting short term outlook does more than settle the dust, which is all that has happened so far, according to my garden shovel.

  • alanstorm

    So the 6 day precip totals for NorCal have been upped, now reflecting another round of moderate to heavy rain Sunday/Monday.
    Not exactly a dry start to winter for us
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/40eb271ce7e087c7410dc7c88eacd328eaecb825d7842c98c64c52ef183dab2a.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/244c103d7a40061ea8999d86299386c737e89284b8d242169b791b50fe456eaa.png

    • Yolo Hoe

      We’ll certainly be in good shape in Yolo after the next few days — but Bombillo’s paranoia is still valid for January/February and I’m guessing we’ll be gnashing teeth during mid-winter ridging — that said, I’m going to enjoy the bus for now — mushrooms are already sprouting and Crash’s visuals are spellbinding

      • alanstorm

        It’s like living from paycheck to paycheck- make what you can today because you might go broke next month!
        06z doesn’t look promising starting next week, but that could swing the other way once again.
        It’s simply too early to shit one’s drawers yet over dry LR forecasts.
        Late Dec is always a lock around these parts

        • BRP (Ventura)

          Yeah, you guys enjoy what you are receiving and be wary of a 2 month dry spell. Just imagine how our natural environment is fairing down here, not a single drop has fallen in 6 months and you guys are lamenting about a dry December and January!?! If you’re dry, we’re dry. We may experience another 2011-2012 winter, less then 6″ of rain…scary.

          • alanstorm

            Obviously.
            If I were a resident of SoCal, it be a whiney bitch all over this blog with apocalyptic dystopian paranoia that would make Fair Weather Cactus look like Joel Osteen on meth.
            I personally don’t believe the current dry LR forecasts mostly because they’ve been wildly incorrect recently & believing the alternative is unthinkable.

            What’s going on with SoCal is quietly frightening & destructive.
            Nothing I can do about it but try to stay positive & report my own rainfall.
            You guys only need a handful of rain events to get your totals & it’s only mid Nov.

          • BRP (Ventura)

            Appreciate the measured and witty response. Seriously, this blog is my relief valve from the moronic masses here in So Cal who don’t give a flip about where their water comes from. Stay wet my friends, and hopefully in the near future I will be posting rainfall totals from my backyard….

          • Pfirman

            “Quietly frightening & destructive”. Well done and exactly so.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    NWS Bay Area upped totals to 1-3″ for all Urban areas including the North Bay Valleys probably because of how slow the NAM is brining the heavy precip through and even seeming to stall it over the SC Mountains and Central Bay Area.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Rain/snow mix around 7k’ currently. Should be an interesting day to see where the snow line bounces around at. Still not sticking, 80 still open with trucks being checked for chains.

    • AlTahoe

      On my drive in it was 38F at 7200′ with rain and it looked like the snow line was way up at 8500′ on mt rose

  • Admode (Susanville)
  • Taz & Storm Master

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service Sacramento CA
    440 AM PST Wed Nov 15 2017

    fter brief drying Monday afternoon into early Tuesday, the
    pattern could remain active as guidance indicates another system
    approaching the area by mid-week. At this point, the ECMWF is the
    fastest and most aggressive solution compared to the GFS, which
    is slower and keeps the area generally dry. For now, have followed
    the ECMWF approach but things will still need to be monitored
    this far out.

    it seems like the sac NWS is not buying the GFS dry idea and following the ECMWF idea

  • Fairweathercactus

    That 6z shows no rain at all for So Cal. It also shows that 570 line goes all the way to San Fran https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d28de4eef5bdd6c09b81a336447a5c3ebc001039d2ce9d96d13c3d5975c859de.jpg

  • Shane Ritter

    GFS has 89″ of snow showing now for this storm? I’ll take half that at 8000ft.

  • Cap’n

    Wambulance driver will be making killer overtime pay the next 48 hours as he’s already picking up patients. His vehicle will be weighed down and low-riding by noon.

  • RunningSprings6250

    Woke up to this, again – now it’s 58F with 8% RH (-6DP). Forecast high of 61F.

    Pretty sunsets though…. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fc0d4c32a0b4a3ac9a02f484386a228c709642dc1d3930b288177288bb437eff.jpg

    • BRP (Ventura)

      LOL, pretty sunsets is all you get this “winter”. You haven’t hit sub 32° yet this fall have you?

      • RunningSprings6250

        End of September we tapped 32 and had frost, only been in the 30s a couple times since then. ?????

  • Taz & Storm Master

    now this is getting funny

    0z brings it back the 06z takes it away now the 12z brings it back any one want too gust what the 18 GFS will do ? LOL

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017111512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_swus_22.png

    • Cap’n

      Love the one you’re with, you got a drizzle fest at your doorstep.

      • Yolo Hoe

        Thanks for that — we’ll be humming that tune rest of the day

        • Bombillo1

          Looking for my bell bottoms now.

          • Pfirman

            Turn em’ up and catch some rain.

  • AlTahoe

    I love morning dog walks as a storm is coming in. Gusty winds, light rain and a temp of 39F. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3643ccd12dcfca430d9631fa0f7e9bc3ced987052d0e2ac59f52fcd302d5201d.jpg

  • Shane Ritter

    Howard seems to think sun/min storm will colder with rain for LA, and thanksgiving we might get a very strong AR. He’s been pretty accurate the last year.

    • Fairweathercactus

      I will bet on the GFS. Years ago most people called it (good for s*** as of late it has been good for something)

      • Shane Ritter

        I feel like you’d bet on a Camel if it said it’s be dry… lol

        • Fairweathercactus

          I had a friend named Cam. I use to call him cam the camel cause he was very stubborn.

        • Pfirman

          You talking two-hump, one-hump, or cigarette?

          • Bombillo1

            Talking dry hump.

          • Pfirman

            Easy there, it is Wed.

    • AlTahoe

      I have been following Howard since the 2010-2011 winter. He was the only one that nailed down the snow levels with the December AR that year.

      • Shane Ritter

        He was also the only person predicting a big winter last year.

      • Cap’n

        Hey Al you might be one of the few who remembers BA pre-Opensnow from the NoHype days?

        • AlTahoe

          Yeah. BA killed it during the 2010-2011 season as well. He was predicting like 12-24″ more for lake level on some of the storms that season than the NWS was forecasting. That winter was nothing but 18-30″ storms at my house. Only seen a couple since.

        • Skye H.

          Ah yes I’ve been reading BAs blog since I was 8 years old it’s a piece of my life

      • Bombillo1

        What’s he saying about when the Mammoth Caldera gonna blow?

        • Pfirman

          About the same time as Jellystone.

          • Bombillo1

            That’s when we all hitch a ride on the next comet tail.

        • AlTahoe

          Apparently 1980-1983 was a scary time to be living in Mammoth with constant 5.0-6.0 earthquakes

          • Bombillo1

            I believe the whole valley swelled something like 10 feet. Lots of RE for sale but no buyers lol.

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      I like that Howard has had almost daily updates this year…back to normal after last years paid version…

      • BRP (Ventura)

        Agree! Howard seems like a great guy to go have a pint with, but he’d probably try to sell you a piece of Mammoth real estate! LOL

        • Bombillo1

          He’ll soon be selling the heck out of pyroclastic flow insurance.

    • Bombillo1

      Wow, Tgiving is 8 days away and nothing near a consensus. Back to the Donkey Tail.

      • Pfirman

        Followed by bobbing for apples hopefully.

  • Yolo Hoe

    0.16” thus far in far southwest Davis — barometer still riding high and steady at 30.02 — drizzlefest at the moment

    • Pfirman

      Can’t wait till we register on the left side of the decimal.

  • inclinejj

    9:00 54.9 degrees. 80% humidity barometer 29.80 falling.

    Just started to rain Pacifica.

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    I don’t put much stock in these seasonal models, but JMA flipped to a wet December. Just thought I’d share this here to talk some of you down from the ledge. Let’s wait and see.

    https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/930750675566206976

  • Bombillo1

    .33 since 4:30 AM.

  • jstrahl

    So far mostly virga in central Berkeley, i actually saw some on my morning jog. .01 inches, radar has shown solid green with a few yellows a few time. Main show not due till afternoon/evening.

  • Howard Goodman

    Now I see why you guys doubt rainfall amounts , there’s a community facebook up here for Concow Yankee hill , these people that live just across the street from the Cal fire station at Jarbo Gap ( and there’s a complete weather station JAR ) Jarbo reported .28 and across the street they got 1 1/4 , I guess someone didn’t empty there gauge from the last rain , I know my rainfall amounts seem very high but I’m careful and have 2 gauges so far I have .58 since this morning

  • Pfirman

    Daniel has a new post suckas.

    • Bombillo1

      Everyone out of the pool. Get the skimmer out.