Much-needed fire relief in North Bay today, but new ridge and record SoCal heat on the way

Filed in Uncategorized by on October 19, 2017 4,145 Comments

North Bay firestorm of 2017

October 2017 will be a month not soon forgotten by many thousands of California residents living in the coastal counties just north of San Francisco. Late in the evening on October 8th, a cluster of extremely fast-moving, wind-driven wildfires roared across Sonoma, Napa, and Mendocino counties (as well as Butte County further north and east)–together burning well over 200,000 acres, destroying nearly 6,000 structures, and claiming the lives of at least 42 people.

Imagery from NASA’s Earth-orbiting satellites showing vast extent of North Bay Fires earlier in October 2017. (via NASA)

Collectively, this wildfire outbreak has become both the deadliest and most destructive wildfire outbreak in California history, eclipsing even the 1991 Tunnel Fire in the Oakland Hills and the 2003 Cedar Fire in San Diego County. As of 10/19, most of these fires continued to burn, though containment has risen considerably and the risk of further risk to lives and property has diminished greatly.

Why were the October 8th fires so incredibly devastating, even in the context of California’s long history of large and frequent wildfires? Several key factors unfortunately converged in the North Bay during this extraordinary event. Perhaps most obvious: the development of very strong and bone-dry land to sea “Diablo Winds” over Napa and Sonoma Counties. Autumn is “offshore wind” season in California, as it’s the time of year when strong day-to-day variations in pressure over the Great Basin can result in steep pressure differentials between the elevated desert plateau and the coast. It’s the same process responsible for California’s so-called “Indian summers,” during which coastal regions often see their highest temperatures of the entire year due to the suppression of the prevalent summer marine layer. In its extreme form, however the “Diablo winds” (and its Southern California cousin, the “Santa Ana“) can result in extremely high fire risk–and can cause wildfires to advance faster than people can outrun them. In fact, this has been a common characteristic in all of California’s most destructive and deadliest wildfires: extremely rapid rates of spread are strongly associated with the occurrence of extremely dry and strong offshore winds in autumn.

Also contributing to the magnitude of the North Bay fire disaster was the proximity of fairly densely populated suburban neighborhoods to a large region of tinder-dry mixed forest and brush. Easterly winds in Sonoma County–which apparently gusted over 70mph along ridgetops and above 60mph even in the lower hills–drove the Tubbs Fire directly into northern portions of the city of Santa Rosa. It is this where the most lives were lost and most structures burned. Unusually, however, a significant portion of the burned area was apparently outside the designated “wildland-urban inferface” where most of California’s fire losses typically occur. How, exactly, did this wildfire manage to burn unchecked through multiple housing developments in the flatlands of Sonoma County (and, incredibly, jump over nearby Highway 101)? In addition to the very gusty Diablo winds, there have been a number of unconfirmed (but plausible) reports of “fire vortices” as the Tubbs Fire approached Santa Rosa. Such vortices act like fire-induced tornados, and while they have different mechanisms of formation than more traditional tornados produced by severe thunderstorms, they can ultimately be quite destructive and can cause a fire to “spot” ahead of itself a great distance. It’s possible that this phenomenon may partially explain why the Tubbs Fire became an essentially uncontrollable, localized urban firestorm. I’m sure there will be further investigation of this possibility in the weeks and months to come.

Finally, there is also the long-term climate context to consider. California just experienced its record-hottest summer, and the fire areas in particular suffered through one of the hottest autumn heatwaves on record back in early September. As the National Weather Service warned just hours before the fires broke out, vegetation moisture levels in the Bay Area had dropped to record-low values due to the extraordinary warmth over the past few months. This occurred despite a very wet winter across the Bay Area, which may have (somewhat counterintuitively) also contributed to increased fire risk by increasing the amount of dry grass and brush that grew during the spring months and ultimately dried out during the record heat this summer. Finally, as others have also pointed out, the legacy of California’s record-breaking multi-year drought is still being felt in California’s forested regions, where many trees remain drought-stressed and where tree mortality remains widespread. Thus, there is a strong argument to be made that the confluence of a wet winter (which enhanced the “flashy,” combustable fuels), the record-hot summer (which dried out vegetation to record levels), and the recent severe drought (which stressed trees to their limits) set the stage for the tragic events which have recently unfolded across Northern California.

 

Some good news: light rain today across hard-hit fire areas

Light to locally moderate precipitation is expected over the next 24 hours or so across much of Northern California, including the fire areas. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

I do have some good news to report this afternoon: as I type this, a modest cold front is currently working its way down the Northern California coast, spreading light to moderate precipitation across the far northern reaches of the state. Later today and this evening, this front will bring some light precipitation as far south as the Bay Area–most likely including the hardest-hit fire region in the North Bay. While this precipitation will not be heavy, it will probably bring a “wetting rain” that will greatly reduce (if not extinguish) fire activity. This, combined with cooler temperatures and higher humidity in the wake of the front, will hopefully allow firefighters to wrap up containment on many of these fires by the weekend. Even very light precipitation, plus a shift in the winds, will also have another considerable benefit: air quality throughout the Bay Area (and across most of NorCal) will likely improve greatly.

 

However, fire season is not over yet: record heat, wind headed for SoCal

A near-record strength high pressure ridge for this time of year will anchor itself directly over California. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Following today’s NorCal respite, however, the overall news is not so great. This weekend, a very strong and seasonally anomalous ridge of high pressure is expected to build over California and the far eastern Pacific Ocean, bringing a dramatic increase in temperatures, along with plummeting humidity and even some offshore winds at times–especially across Southern California. In fact: there is now strong multi-model agreement that record high temperatures are quite likely to occur over nearly all of Southern California early next week. At the moment, it appears quite likely that daily temperature records for late October will be exceeded by a wide margin (i.e. by 3-5+ degrees in some spots). Downtown Los Angeles will probably experience its latest-in-the-calendar-year 100 degree reading on record next week, and could even approach 105. Even the beaches will be quite hot during this heat event–probably hotter, in fact, than during most of the significant inland heatwaves this summer. Early next week, there are also increasing signs that Santa Ana winds may develop–likely bringing critical fire weather risks for an extended period of time across much of Southern California

Near-surface temperatures will be a record-levels early next week across southern and parts of coastal Central California. (NCEP)

Temperatures across NorCal will not be nearly as hot as in SoCal during this event, though it will still be quite warm (80 and some 90s) for late October. Dry conditions will also prevail, along with occasionally breezy offshore winds. At the moment, there are no indications of especially strong winds in the northern part of the state over the next week, though this could change if any weak systems drop down the eastern side of the ridge over the Great Basin. The main message across California: the dry season is not over yet, despite the brief respite over the next 48 hours, and at the moment “fire season-ending” rains are still not on the horizon over most of the state. Stay tuned.

 

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  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
  • Taz & Storm Master

    well no rain today

    • Nope.

      • FolsomPrisonBlues

        We finally got maybe .2 inches in Folsom off of what was said to be an almost 2 inch weekend….Fun time.

        • VK (Sacramento)

          lucky you, today we got zilch in sactown 🙁

          • FolsomPrisonBlues

            Man….what happened to this storm? Makes me uber skeptical of the one coming next week….

          • SacWx

            Precip totals were receding closer to event time which isn’t a good sign. The higher totals you quoted were forcasted when the models were still showing tropical moisture being drawn in. That didn’t happen.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    i really hop that this wed or thursday storm dos not end up being a bust like this event was

  • Whittier weather dude

    What a joke again. In Whittier. No rain again.

    • molbiol

      I think fwcactus lives in your area….

  • molbiol

    This was in the twitter feed on the right side. A perfect illustration of why the monsoon is my favorite time of year and why I was frustrated this past summer since the pattern, despite being very favorable for monsoon intrusions into Socal, was overall fairly disappointing with only a couple of decent thunderstorm events here in Lancaster. The same frustration that people on this blog feel when winter storms fail to deliver the goods, or disappear on the computer models, is what I felt a lot during this past summer. Give this photographer credit (Mike Olbinski)!!! He is professional who deserves it!!!!! Absolutely stunning!!!!

    • annette johnson

      Outstanding video!

    • Jim (Watsonville)

      Met him storm chasing…great guy and makes some amazing videos

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Amazing, incredible, epic and a hundred other adjectives that still wouldn’t do it justice. The sound track, for me, really makes this vid, kind of spiritual in its effect. But the main character, as always, is Divine Mother Nature, whose infinite capacity to paint unique moments on the fabric of time is why weather and nature are my religion. Since I was a kid, it’s always enthralled me to witness the majesty of this planet in all of her beauty, power and diversity.

      Thank you for posting this Molbiol!

    • Bombillo1

      .Molbiol, that was excellent. My question: is compression technology so complicated that we can’t even post a 10 second video but YouTube can do a 10 min HD here no problem? Why is it important, you can talk about convective forces all day but watching this video obviates an entire textbook…

  • cthenn

    Storm dropped 0.3″ in Walnut Creek. Roads were wet all day out here, but not much rain during the day.

    Some random pics from this week. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/33680dd4887a7b06ab27816256c5a2f68de55d8ba2a0a41183b6d4417bdb2e8e.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1c0f313869db1d08345752b5f1fbc78082f463c2a676d8e1a93f34dc9793b33d.jpg

  • OldSnwSrvyr (Paradise)

    Ended up with .93″ yesterday and 1.53″ today for a total 2.5″ on my gage. Hear in Paradise. Not too bad for an earl season storm.

    • alanstorm

      Bodes well when the upper Sac watershed gets a hefty total so early in Nov.
      Another above normal year wouldn’t be a bad thing

      • OldSnwSrvyr (Paradise)

        Agreed. There is still a huge deficit to make up!

  • OldSnwSrvyr (Paradise)

    We had .93 ” yesterday and 1.53 today for a storm total 2.5″ on my gage here in Paradise. That’s really not to bad for an early season storm.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    this was more of a N of I 80 event and a foot hill event it seems i wounder if any mts area got snow from this ?

  • Yolo Hoe

    47F in far southwest Davis — cold front has moved in

  • Rusty Rails

    Will be hanging our north shore Donner and Tahoe from late Tuesday next week. Hit me with the late week HYPE!

  • tomocean

    Pretty much rained or drizzled all day in Auburn. I suspect we will end up with at least a half inch. The light at sunset had a very dreamlike quality. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f0c333693e772ffc081d016c4e1ca363abd63fe020f4b03dff5072101e4cc6c1.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2c6718719c4d4c3d0cfef0571c2c09a249a67e199b5b4fd9f61ecdedd92525b7.jpg

    • Skye H.

      Gorgeous.

  • RandomTreeInSB

    Zzz…


    .UPDATE…

    Almost time to stick a fork in this front – its done.

    Today was much sunnier south of Pt Conception and a little warmer
    than forecast as the front really stalled out over SLO county.
    There was really not much rain to speak of and what there was
    really only fell from Cambria north to the county line.

    The weak and dying front is half way through SBA county and is
    moving slowly and producing no rain. Clouds will slowly advance
    over VTA and LA counties overnight. After midnight the front will
    reach the convergence zone across the LA county south coast and
    esp the San Gabriel Vly where there is also some upslope lift.
    This may be enough to bring some light rain. Adjusted the forecast
    to remove all rain over VTA/LA county through mid night as well
    as to reduce the pops over SLO/SBA county to 20 percent. After
    midnight reduced the pops to the SBA/VTA/LA mtns as well as the LA
    cst and SGV. This pattern will continue into Sunday morning. By
    Sunday afternoon broad fairly dry westerly flow sets up over the
    area and will kill any chc of rain as well as reducing the clouds
    to partly cloudy. “

    • Los Padres NF/ Piñon Pines

      Was driving south on the 99 before the grape vine by the Tejon outlets and could see the front slowly rolling down into Ventura and LA mountains. Clouds looked a little low though.

  • Chris

    Here is an excerpt from an article in the Tahoe weekly;

    One signature to look for as we move into winter is that statistically, La Niña years that start out dry, generally stay dry, averaging 50 to 90 percent of normal precipitation for the year, according to Elissa Lynn, a senior meteorologist with the California Department of Water Resources. Amazingly, the La Niña-influenced winter of 2017 started off with the wettest October in history and ended up with record-setting precipitation totals.

    • Was “La Niña influenced” her statement??

      • Chris

        What do you mean?

        • Last winter was not La Niña influenced. Just a question ‘cause it came from a senior met. at CDW. It’s probably the best description for John and Jane Q Public. I like to pick nits. ?

    • AntiochWx

      Yep, and it is one of the reasons I’m predicting lower than average precip totals for the state except from maybe the extreme NW parts of the state. I’d argue 2016-2017 was an strong El Nino atmospheric hangover.

      • sezwhom

        There might have been some truth in lingering El Nino hangover for 2016-17. We then transitioned into a Neutral-Very Weak La Nina but nobody foresaw the unprecedented precip which fell in the West. CPC’s forecast verified “poorly”.

        Not one model except the NMME, on occasion, had a clue. One key factor was the increased speed of jet stream plus finally, a transitioning High pressure and not one anchored over CA.

        There are so many “circulations” and “oscillations”, that it’s darn near impossible to keep up. As for this year? Very difficult to follow up a banner year with another but not unprecedented to have one near average. I would lean on normal to slightly above precip but colder than normal temps. The last cold episode was 2010-11 so I think we’re due plus, it’s all or nothing out here now. Worst drought ever, wettest rain year ever, one of the hottest summer’s ever and now? I’d think colder! This month is looking cold and wet.

        Finally, there’s already a lot of snow and cold air built up over parts of Canada. This from Larry Cosgrove: Despite what the longer term numerical models will tell you, I think that locations in the Pacific Northwest and along/above the Canadian border will continue with a colder, wetter pattern. The bracket from NE….KS….OK….TX through the Interstate 95 corridor looks to be mostly mild with an occasional blip in the cold direction. The ECMWF series shows a warmer period in the West as we enter December, but I admit that I am skeptical since marine (mP and ImP) would be favored with mostly westerly flow aloft.

      • Chris

        Last year’s pattern was not El Niño like at all.
        Typical El Niño’s typically produce a strong zonal flow with a long wave trough encompassing the entire pacific at times.
        Last year was constant split flow with the semi permanent high near the Bering Sea.
        Much of the Pacific was engulfed in high pressure last winter.
        We just lucked out being between them!

        • AntiochWx

          The pattern itself wasn’t a typical El Nino pattern, but sometimes after a strong El Nino the atmosphere will have left over moisture signatures, especially with subtropical feed. We had a lot of undercutting action thanks to an active jet. We are currently 2 years removed from that atmospheric state, with currently not an active subtropical jet. We will get some Pacific feed, but most of the action will come from LP action out of the GOA as they round off the blocking ridge. This tendency has higher favorability for Pac NW storms and northern 1/3 of CA, just like we have seen thus far.

    • Bombillo1

      Wasn’t that the winter of 2016? This winter being 2017…

      • Chris

        I think she meant 2016-17

    • jstrahl

      “95-6 is a big exception. Bone dry till the mega-storm in December (starting on the 10th or so), turned bone dry again after 5 days, till the ML King holiday, ended up significantly above average.

      • Chris

        I remember that year!!!
        But I think that was a very weak La Niña right?

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    that is one wet 00z run for NorCal, 30 inches for Ragdump! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017110500/gfs_apcpn_wus_52.png

    • Rusty Rails

      This is happening!!!!

    • Eddie Garcia

      The system on Wednesday and Thursday looks a lot more consistent on the gfs than this fluke of a storm that we had today and yesterday and yes I know some people got some action but lets be honest it was a disappointing storm for many areas… hope it happens.

    • Holy wee cows!

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Meanwhile in SoCal, the Baja Blob is disintegrating any storm south of us.

  • AntiochWx

    Quite chilly out there tonight, seeing some places around the bay in the upper 30s tonight! Currently 46 here, coolest night of the year so far.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Had showers in parts of Santa Maria. My house got a trace, the airport received none. *cue Price is right trombone*

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    It 37 in Truckee near 6,000 feet and it’s 44 here next to the Bay! What is up with the weather right now?!

    • Chowpow

      37 at 120’ ~2 miles from the ocean!

      • Very nice!

      • Bombillo1

        Chow, the next 7 days there look to be shades of last winter. It has occurred to me that you most likely don’t jones for this stuff like the rest of us?

        • Chowpow

          Yeah I guess not, I’m on my 3rd or 4th cold front of the season. I keep seeing the bleak and depressing posts from the rest of the state, but I can’t relate so far. I’ll consider renting out my garage to southern folk if November keeps up with this pattern. haha

    • Warm here in Twain Harte. Rather disappointing.

    • sezwhom

      It’s 32 in Santa Rosa.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Now the airport has .01″.

  • Chrissy (Long Beach)

    Hey it’s raining in Long Beach at 3:00 a.m. Light rain for about 30 minutes now, but not showing up on radar. Clouds are low & Palos Verdes seems to be catching most of it. About .05 so far- lame to get excited about that much but YAY RAIN!

    • Palos Verdes Snowstorm

      0.21″ for my weather station. What a surprise!

  • Howard Goodman

    The High Lakes up above me in Butte County https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fb28cc3d34c393ff79260acff1633ef71ef887a77184b020cd2addfb14116c27.jpg got a good layer of snow out of this storm

  • RunningSprings6250

    Drippity drippity drip drip in da Springs.

    42F.

  • Howard Goodman

    This goes in the “Things you see up in the mountains ” https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3c691c0a2b2965a4074b2c37ea17ebb94faca8572ddd71b96419bc68c8d692c7.jpg they were looking for handicap parking

    • Bombillo1

      I guess being paraplegic isn’t good enough for that fellow.

    • Cap’n

      You know you’re redneck if…

    • OldSnwSrvyr (Paradise)

      That takes road hunting to a whole new level!

  • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

    38F this morning in Orinda. Brrr.

  • Yolo Hoe

    Mammoth Weather Guy (Ted Schlaepfer) is posting again on Mammoth Snowman site — he and BA are definitely ‘go to’ sources.

    06Z GFS suggests the Storm King may be awakening in coming days.

    Currently 43F with barometer 30.10 and slightly rising in far southwest Davis — overnight low was 38F at 04:29.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    the GFS looks grate and all N CA and reno ADF agreed has well looks like the storm door is opening with storms every few days or every 24hrs i think this storm was the kicker too get ball going

    • matthew

      What are you looking at? I do not see much of anything out to at least 7 days. Another relatively weak storm in the middle of the week is about it.

    • alanstorm

      Yes, StormMaster, fellow Believer, you have contributed greatly to our fellowship!
      Today’s storm is relatively light & currently INCOMING into the far NW counties, but these 6 day precip maps sent to us via coconut radio, reflect a rather ROBUST storm for Wed/Thurs.
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/55a22f8ba566b5eb3bd5033c6d68e7fa534bc2eddcdf924db9de62384631a251.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f4de3b449ca45e07327ce6e2d22c044f9ba4678f6afba194afd64af8c67d8a59.png

      • jstrahl

        Looks like last Wednesday’s map for this weekend. 🙂 Amazing how the rain literally stops at the Marin Bayshore, .88 in San Rafael, WAY less on the other side of the bridge.

      • Yolo Hoe

        I’m keeping my ticket on the Magic Bus through December given the way things are setting up — right next to StormMaster — Rusty Rails will be sending us inspiring pictures of the UP mountain crews hard at work during next 7 – 10 days

        • Yes, Brother Ho, things ARE setting up despite Gilligan’s undermining. Mary Ann is in the hut Tring to hook up WiFi as we speak.
          Why only ticketed through Dec?

          • Cap’n

            Because that’s when the spigot shuts off. We’ll be drinking our own urine by spring.

          • Just like Bear Grylls!!

          • Yolo Hoe

            Am guessing early January will be a pattern checkpoint — am hoping signs will point to a day extension on dosing before mid-Winter dry spell brings us back down to earth before a second peak event in March/April to get us near 100% — if Tyler and the Weather Wizard join the ride, I think we’ve got a fighting chance

          • Pfirman

            ‘Pattern checkpoint’ ……checkpoint should be drubbed out of the language for what it has come to mean, which is mostly mean. Sorry to be so mean.

          • Yolo Hoe

            Good point

          • January for me is a “crap my pants” months if a RIDGE lasts more then a week.
            Still traumatized by 2013-15 .
            Wednesday’s active storm is looking good with its wind etc, as a good sign for coming months

    • jstrahl

      Eh, right! 🙂

  • Very pretty morning, but dry as a bone with a few fair weather cume (V https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8605d28d31fd79b6866af4c8ebda56d375d7c5c4ea210d58c19b2008dcf9d5e6.jpg entura)

    • BRP (Ventura)

      Nice drone shot of Pierpont! You’re right, another dry storm for Ventura. November 5th and counting for our first drops of rain for winter of 17/18.

    • Bombillo1

      And apparently not much surf recently either, good water vis…

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    When the CFS suggest snow in early December at sea level and 19 degree temperatures at 5 AM near Sacramento and 33 degrees in LA! http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2017110500/720/snod.conus.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2017110500/708/sfct.conus.png

    • SacWx

      Kiss of death…

      • Fairweathercactus

        December heatwave confirmed

        • alanstorm

          No

        • Darin

          There’s a reason Indian Summer exists as a term. I don’t know if it’s more or less or just as politically incorrect but apparently the North Atlantic countries call it “old woman’s summer” presumably referring to menopausal got flashes. I’m betting on downright shorts weather for about 5 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

        • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

          In Fantasyland, we hope.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          Let’s hope we don’t have a Santa Ana event in December that leads to a nighttime low of 75-80 degrees in the windy areas! I don’t usually think we would have ridiculous heat that time of year, but this last Santa Ana we had last month was unprecedented in terms of low temps in my area. I have never seen a nighttime low of 87 degrees here in Orange before!

    • That would be nice.

    • Thor

      Welp…in SW MT we already have a foot of snow on the ground at 4,800ft…and nothing but 20s and 30s for highs in the 10-day…so might be accurate…

      …but that temp map!! -21f for me on 12.4 – ouch!

    • Cap’n

      And we better get a moisture surge to combine with those cold temps, it’s our God given right.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      CFS shows 2 arctic blasts, first one occurs just beyond 384 hours after a ridge breaks open in the Western US. Second one is far deeper and colder, hoping for a trend for these outcomes in the coming weeks. Fantasyland wants to freeze Seattle until it’s death https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2c02079343e100086844d89068da62726690a878572ec13d5d90593ba3cfb8a0.gif https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2f2e256e437105d673fbad1d6f10a96a68ae54dcbed6d83ea783783a6b51597a.gif

      • AlTahoe

        This year already has the setup for something crazy to happen. 1950 redux for Seattle

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          What are you seeing?

      • jstrahl

        Not saying you are, but i for one am not hoping for this, it’s a sure bet for a dry pattern.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          Cold blasts often lead to an extended dry spell here in Socal, so I am not rooting for an abnormally cold moisture-starved storm, either.

      • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

        Love to see an Arctic blast, but these ridges are scary as Trump’s tax plan.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Last November there were a series of GFS runs showing a similarly unusual cold snap for early December, which later runs pulled back.
      However, I think we’re more likely to see something like that this season than we were last year.

      A lot of incredibly cold air is expected to be bottled up in Western Canada, so under the right setup it could dive South into CA. This tupe of patternnisnusually moisture-starved though.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        I wouldn’t call this an unusual cold snap it’s all time record breaking blast if it comes true. I’m sure the models didn’t show something just like what we’re seeing now, last year on the CFS because it’s unprecedented cold being shown.

        • SacWx

          This type of long range modeling pretty much never verifies – especially on the CFS. Just being realistic here.

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            Everyone on here knows that it’s just fun to consider there is a slight chance of it happening.

          • Bombillo1

            All lotteries work that slight mathematical probability to great advantage.

        • redlands

          Well if Southern Calif can’t get some widespread moderate to heavy rainfall, I would take a real cold snap with 500ft snowfall. At least it’s different than sunny n dry

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          Not sure about the CFS, which is reliably wrong looking 3 weeks in advance, (but would be amazing if it verified) But during November of last year we were indeed talking about some global model solutions that were prognosticating “unprecedented” cold weather for early December. (Some of this can be found deep in the comments section of Daniel’s November 20th Blog update from last year.)

          You mentioned 33?F in LA @5am, here’s one from last year with 30?F with the 528dm line overhead @5am local time in LA.

          Still, maybe this year it verifies. It would be exciting, but quite a concern for agriculture.

          https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c0cd1fdc1c3bf5b26ae29d5a75b374e24b7b1cd084c00fe1eb3039f1352906a8.png

          https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b7827fb81dd50fbf6590240547920d82a773341ef91f32be7e4f9975b068eba8.png

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            Nothing even close to that happened

    • jstrahl

      When the GFS does that, i reach for my skeptic hat.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      I love to be in Fantasyland.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Glad to read reports of fairly significant rainfall [over 0.20] around Palos Verdes/ Long Beach. Nothing here in Pasadena area yet but more chances [perhaps remote] for rain later in the week.

  • Thunder98
    • happ [Los Angeles]

      If it doesn’t rain it may as well be sunny so long as it is not hot.

  • Tan

    Yesterday evening Kirkwood got an inch or two. But mostly it was 32-33F wih a sleet kind of snow. Just at the passes and high points on Mormon Emigrant trail load there was some whiteness.
    Got foggy and windy though

    • AlTahoe

      And just think 3 days earlier the snow maps were showing 58″ at Kirkwood. Mountain biking season is still a go at this point so I am headed out for a ride on cold creek.

      • Cap’n

        Only thing that might be done for the season up here is Hole in the ground and stuff by Rose. But after this warm storm rolls through it will probably be game on until February.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    A nice day on White Mountain up at 14246′. Temperature currently at 17.2 degrees gusting to 82 mph. How would you all like to spend a day up there in the winter, Donner Part 2? May I add its gusts up to near 150 mph every winter, sometimes higher! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ca67c2d49ecf50e4c5c5b562f3ae8d58a4b4d4babf1ec718fd69e4d3e822320a.jpg

  • SacWx

    Euro showing another precip bulls eye for rag dump with a sharp precip cutoff south of Yosemite over the next 240 hours.

    • Howard Goodman

      The counties trying to fix the road past my place , looks like they may have started too late and a few miles above there’s logging equipment all over , the counties got there equipment parked here I’ll have to hide the Grader may come in handy this winter

      • Pfirman

        The one thing they would miss first is the grader.

  • happ [Los Angeles]
  • Fairweathercactus

    Some spit and drizzle this morning. A sad display of whatever this storm had to offer. 6z and 12z was a textbook La Nina for So Cal. (La Nothing)

    • FWC, you have precipitation.
      Rejoice!
      (La Something is Better than Nothing)

  • tomocean

    Picture perfect autumn morning in the American river canyon. The rain yesterday crystal cleaned the air and tamed the dust. The scent of bay trees and the bright green moss were a feast for the senses. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ea1f4559cd49f11a96b0d907afbd63fbbac8483fbedac1caadc29164edf22dcb.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/88a583b6aa39ec245778f7a47a6af488b0c2d4788023defa3424682d456e0f39.jpg

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Both Accu and Wunderground not seeing rain in the next ten days. Ho hum. Looks like blocking ridge is stuck in the Pacific and controls the weather for the most of this month. This feels like November 2011 all over again when we had a storm chance evaporated. Feeling like Mr. Cactus today. 🙁

  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    While watching my Rams put the hammer down on the Giants, was trying to figure out why the weak disturbance to our west just sits in-place without any eastward movement. It has been spinning moisture in our direction all weekend but not enough to bring us anything except for a few light showers and sprinkles. Need some forcing to push it eastward to bring us a better chance of more widespread showers. Would hope for at least .10-.25 inches out of this feature.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Speaking of Giants, who’ll be heading to San Fran next week; I stand by my prediction they’ll win their first game before a major storm arrives in Central Coast/SoCal. If they go 0-16…we’re heading for a Dust Bowl.

      • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

        With Garapollo at the helm I would expect ‘Frisco to get their first win but it’s not saying much after watching the pathetic team that calls itself the Giants.

        • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

          Word has it that C.J. “Can’t-win” Beathard will remain starter for now. I think he’ll do better throwing storms at SoCal than a football to the end zone.

          • Pfirman

            Harsh. The guy that was ahead of him is gone. The guy behind him is gonna be ahead of him soon enough. Or not. Remember when teams felt like family?

    • Pfirman

      Feature is so close sounding to ‘freak of nature’. Just my way of saying things seem feaky even in a good year.

  • Does this mean no more 240hr snow maps??

  • tomocean
    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Meh…….

    • Henry

      Looks like a typical early season La Nina pattern where precipitation is concentrated in the Pacific Northwest and the northern third of California. Probably dry south of San Francisco.

    • RandomTreeInSB

      Unfortunately with climatology and la niña the odds ae against us down south. I’ll play it safe and say SoCal will see some light precip by early December and the year will finish at or slightly below average.
      In the meantime… hope y’all up north enjoy the rain/snow that’s coming up in the short term.

      • jstrahl

        What “rain/snow that’s coming up in the short term.” up north?

        • Pfirman

          Ha, ha, crickets.

    • No need to apologize for perfectly normal weather patterns in early Nov

    • redlands

      That’s not suprising

    • Freddy66

      At least it’s not 90 degrees anymore.

    • RunningSprings6250

      Since it’s dry when they forecast wet I’ll be expecting heavy rain or snow early next week ??

    • jstrahl

      Will probably wind up even further north.

      • Jstrahl, what happened?
        Have you been hanging out with FairweatherCactus?

        • jstrahl

          🙂 No, just watching one storm after another evaporate as the time approaches. At least re the Bay Area. Willits should get some rain. Just amazing how the red comes down right to the Gate, and stops. Like there’s literally a gate.

          • Azmordean

            Pretty common though no? Why Mill Valley averages 36″ and most of silicon valley is around 15!

          • jstrahl

            Not exactly. Mill Valley gets that much rain due to its proximity to Mt Tam, i.e. thanks to orographic lift. It gets more rain than Santa Rosa which is further north, in fact almost as much as Eureka. This is in regards to average yearly rainfall, not any specific year.

          • Azmordean

            Santa Rosa still gets 31 inches a year, more than double Silicon Valley.

  • RunningSprings6250

    After .10” this morning it brings our season to .13”.

    Yippee

    • redlands

      Is that a July 1st start Ian ?

      • redlands

        I got 0.02 of rain -total for 2017/2018 is 0.29

      • RunningSprings6250

        I thought we’re doing October now?

        We’ve had about 4” total in the last 8 months, half of that in that freak early August rain.

        • redlands

          Are u one of those Oct 1st starters. I’ve been using July 1st start for over 30 years not gonna change now

    • Charlie B

      Reno received .00 for a November total so far of .00.

      • Pfirman

        Right on target for your average.

  • Cap’n

    Further and further north she drifts, like every woman I’ve ever loved.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bce80ccebeb530585b060c47b2e70fa5fecdfa55108693f7e99bb7f41e8b13df.png

    • RunningSprings6250

      7 day?

    • Chowpow

      Time for a field trip to the Smith watershed.

    • jstrahl

      This is by when?

    • Maybe try PG-13 instead of G? Don’t go to dinner at Walmart on the first date?
      Show her you can take care of your own wood? Strike that.

      • Cap’n

        But I can’t take care of it, lord knows I try. My life reads like a Raymond Carver story, just a little less sad with a little more action, but pointless nonetheless.

        • Bombillo1

          LATE FRAGMENT
          And did you get what
          you wanted from this life, even so?
          I did.
          And what did you want?
          To call myself beloved, to feel myself
          beloved on the earth.

          On his tombstone

          • Cap’n

            He resided in Paradise I think, in the vicinity of a younger H. Goodman. Wonder if they pondered together. Carver had some damn sad stories.

          • David

            Lived in Paradise, while he attended Chico State. Way before my time 🙂

          • Pfirman

            People need to know, in case they don’t, that appellation started out as Pair of Dice.

          • Bombillo1

            Someone has to tell them. Charles
            Bukowski knew the dark places too.

          • Cap’n

            Yes he did. One of these days Bombillo, if you haven’t already, check out some Fante and the great Bandini. I found him through Bukowski and in my opinion he is one of the great American writers never talked about. Sorry, I know this is off topic and I’ll stop. I really need to get a life.

          • Bombillo1

            Thanks. I will look it up. No apologies, this is life and you have an interesting one. It’s Swain I’m worried about.

        • Pfirman

          He was at Chico State for a while. I think a short while, but he wrote short stories, didn’t he? I do get your point. I have read a few.

    • Bartshe

      classic la Nina and potentially a symptom of northward drift of jet stream due to expanding tropics & poleward shift of subtropical dry zones likely tied to you know what

      • Cap’n

        I expect each run to show this further north, limiting the cold air and forcing over the crest, the dreaded crest and the shadowing that follows.

        • Yolo Hoe

          That’s picture of what things look like when the Cactus migrates North — let’s keep him down south, and certainly off the Crest — hard enough as it is to get anything substantial at Northstar

          • Pfirman

            Hey, I like nopalitos and tunas so I grow cactus just north of you. Yes, north.

      • weathergeek100

        Yup. This has been my thinking for the past several years. Expansion of Hadley cell due to global warming. Very sad.

    • Pfirman

      Right, both of them.

    • Bombillo1

      Find out where they’re going and get there first. S Clemens.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Even better on GOES-16. Haven’t seen them in a long time over our area. Disturbing the common mid/lower level cloud patterns. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/236b273a8df0da158cbbe2cddfd8ffe6129241c36e133bab75c14d85fb6e75bd.gif

      • That perspective is gonna be lost pretty soon when it’s moved east. I guess CA will be falling off the edge of the disc?

        • Sadly, yes.

          • Pfirman

            What are you two talking about? Is this political fallout? If so, makes me radioactive.

          • CHeden

            GOES-16 that created the cloud image is being moved further east to replace GOES East. That means the west coast will be way on the edge of the new frame of view, with a serious degradation in resolution and areal coverage for us.

          • Pfirman

            Thanks.

        • Bombillo1

          Well no point in wasting imaging scope. Only one out of 7 people in the nation live here…

        • Dan the Weatherman

          The next GOES satellite that will be launched will cover our area, so I would believe that we will be able to see satellite animations in that high of resolution in the future. So if I am correct, this is a preview of coming attractions. The launch will happen sometime next year I believe. It may not be until the following year that it becomes fully operational, though.

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        Was watching these clouds out in the Pacific on satellite yesterday, hoping they would produce rain for us.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          Did you get any measurable rain this morning?

      • Pfirman

        Pretty sure that is the giant ass of the Lamb of God.

        • Bombillo1

          Most likely that. Thanks for ID’ing.

    • Chowpow

      HAARP? /s

  • AntiochWx

    Going to be another cold night. NWS is busting on there low temp forecast, been consistently to high.

  • jstrahl

    Howard’s post this morning. Cut tot he chase,

    “In retrospect, so far, the beginning of this wet season has been much more of a challenge to the medium range forecast models and thus forecasters as well. The Dweebs will be more vigilant in noting where the upper jet track tracks. And as always, noting the front left exit region as favored, in addition to at a lesser extent the rear right entrance region…..Both areas are key to UVM.

    At the moment, The MJO is close to the circle of death and thus no help from a tropical forcing factor in the short-term as it re-develops over the Indian Ocean.

    Longer Range:

    The big message is that the European Model is gradually pushing the upper polar jet further south week 2, as a series of cyclones progress through the west coast. If this verifies, storms systems with higher snowfall potential will push further south the following week into the Central Sierra . The timing is of course subject to change. However, from this point in time; looking at my calendar, target about Monday the 13th for a storm with good Central Sierra Upper Jet Support!

    This system at this point in time would have the potential to bring footage.”

    http://mammothweather.com/2017/11/05/main-branch-to-favor-northern-sierra-this-week-with-several-systems-headed-for-northern-and-central-ca-expect-colder-than-normal-temps-breezy-periods-light-to-moderate-amounts-the-next-7-to-10/

    • LOLMJO
      Yes mid month or November bust

    • Cap’n

      He chased a cut tater tot.

      • jstrahl

        Translation, please? 🙂

        • Pfirman

          You wrote it.

          • jstrahl

            Actually, my auto-editor wrote it. He is fired. 🙂 Thanks.

  • Hollow Scene (Riverside)
    • Bombillo1

      My mouth gets dry just looking at those pics. Which direction are those wells anyhow?

      • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

        The bottom pic is looking at the Santa Rosa Mountains. The wells would be to the right, but there isn’t much left. The name comes from failed oil wells test drilled in the 1920s. What an inhospitable place to go to at the time! The wells were abandoned after hitting an underground natural hot water reservoir, which still is active.

    • Love it!

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • Bombillo1

      Nothing interesting anywhere in the next 24 hours. 72 hours out, something.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        For north of Pt. Conception, yes.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Aimed right at Santa Barbara County. I love surprises.

  • Dan the Weatherman

    Some light showers fell here in Orange early this morning with a total of 0.02″.

    • redlands

      Only 0.02 rain in Redlands Not enough to tell it rained

  • SacWx

    00z Euro moves the precip even further north through 240 hours. Not much for the bay and Sac and Tahoe on the cutoff line.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    ugh a few days ago the GFS was looking grate now not so much may be it will add it back by tusday

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017110600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_swus_14.png

  • Howard Goodman

    Thought it was going to be clear today then I heard the pitter patter of rain drops

    • David

      Me too. Not expecting that….

  • Jim (Watsonville)

    39° here this morning….

    • Howard Goodman

      Up here in the mountains I’m at 41 ( must be the cloud cover )

    • Arnold Weather Fanatic

      38 at 3800 feet, even with some high clouds around. Test out the new gloves I bought yesterday! Speaking of that, Costco has a sale on 32 Degree Base Layer undergarments. Hurry over!

  • Freddy66

    The state gets hammered at 360 hours on the 6z….which means its going to happen for sure.

    • jstrahl

      Gone on the 12Z. Yeah, the 6Z looked great, Oregon to LA. Oh well. I think this will be a season full of teases.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        This season is about 5 pitches into the 1st inning.

        • I’m glad you didn’t say innings and game 7.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            That would be toward the end of the season sometime in April.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            You had to go there, didn’t you?

        • jstrahl

          Yeah, and we’re on our third pitcher.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          In other words, the rainy season has just gotten underway.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Sky this morning over southern Camarillo as a weak disturbance associated with a retrograding upper-level low to the SW of SoCal edges into the area. Light showers if at all for some coastal areas from VTA to SLO, can’t rule out a moderate cloud burst though for some locations especially near Pt. Conception. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f525b8c3eb64d21fb193f37f5a4fbe678b00d0a842548fb696ba4d31db5a2239.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/97f4d1644a8f0be3f2e13d417f19c017bf9bfa987e61ea9e06f39b413c4ba397.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/23966ba998881178c64e462d8f8b67d19480cada95ca036bc884fe2d8c1ad115.jpg

    • RunningSprings6250

      Cloudy here with some showers – higher cloud base around 9k-10k in contrast to the weekends marine layer driven showers, socked in with fog…

  • Howard Goodman

    Got 7 100’s this morning

    • weathergeek100

      How much total rain did you pick up from the weekend storm? Your rainfall totals truly impress me. Amazing what orographics can squeeze out when the topography is perfectly oriented.

      • Howard Goodman

        This weekend 6 1/4 inches

        • Pfirman

          Viagra?

  • Taz & Storm Master

    am starting too think that the GFS may be under per performing mid week storm i this have that feeling that it may over perform

    • jstrahl

      Would be a nice change, but don’t count on it.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      What about the EC?

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    looks like this storm will only be another tenth of an inch for San Jose. Got a tenth of an inch from this past storm. Local news showed some video of the ski resorts. So much snow! This next storm seems a bit warmer unfortunately

  • Craig Matthews

    Widespread frost in the upper Carmel Valley area this morning. Temp was 31 at 7am.. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6fd5d45fb6f37a993ea585868f400e17d910a9e39306cf2f71a441adcace6100.jpg

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Nice shot. Onshore flow has kept night temps on the mild side down here.

      • Craig Matthews

        We had clear skies all night here, and dewpoints were low enough to allow temps to get near or just below the freezing mark by early morning. Winds were calm to very light offshore which also helped allow temps to drop. Pretty decent cold air advection took place here behind the coldfront yesterday….temps struggling to get out of 50’s here today. Definitely a fall-like feel in the air now.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      So glad you still update with photos Craig. November frost is welcome.

      • Craig Matthews

        Thanks. The first widespread frost seams to be right on schedule here in these parts. From what I gather from the locals first frost usually happens right after Halloween.

        • Pfirman

          Hard to believe you get frost and we don’t. We are more north and farther from the sea here in lower Sac Valley.

  • weathergeek100

    Really liking San Fran’s forecast for Wednesday-Thursday. At least we can make up our deficit somewhat. AFD doesn’t sound very skeptical which is a change from the last system so the models must be on board this time around. Sorry SoCal, not looking good for you. I don’t know what to say except for hope that things change around for the better down there at some point in the near future.

    Also, I took a little weekend getaway with my wife to Guerneville. That region picked up over a half inch from the last storm. I also found out I wasn’t far from Venado, the rainiest location in the bay area (well, that has an observation). Beautiful, wet region. Drove through Tubbs fire territory in Santa Rosa on the way back. I’ve got to say, that was very depressing.

    • jstrahl

      I love Guerneville, have friends there.

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    The recent snowfall was not enough to close Tioga Pass for the season. Maybe the next storm Wed/Thurs will be enough to do it?

    https://twitter.com/Caltrans9/status/927604633400254464

    • Posting 240hr snow forecasts will continue to jinx the entire ‘snow’ season this year. IOW no one post these POS wishcasts.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        I never took you as the superstitious type. LOL. 😉

      • gray whale

        Isn’t it about time you moved to Rag Dump already?

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Photo makes my day and reminds me that northern California is benefitting from early season snowstorms!

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        As I understand it, we’ve got some fresh snow sitting on top of last season’s leftovers up on the higher peaks.

  • Official total now of 4658 homes destroyed by the Tubbs fire in Sanoma County.
    These were mostly in the 3 Santa Rosa area subdivisions of Fountain Grove, Larkfield/Wikiup, & Coffee Park.

    The North Bay fire outbreak is now the costliest wildfire in U.S. history, now merely a footnote in the news cycle.

    http://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/7588914-181/cal-fire-4658-homes-destroyed?ref=most&gallery=7597510&artslide=0

    • These subdivisions were all in city limits?

      • Larkfield/Wikiup, which sits at the mouth of Mark West Springs canyon (where fire roared down) is not.
        The other 2 are.
        Fountain Grove had the huge $million homes on large lots, east of 101 in the foothills, & Coffee Park had the most densely packed homes on the west side of 101.

          • Hanley Fire pretty much burned exactly the same area & direction.
            Not a good place to build subdivisions, right?
            Odd note: 1964 was a BAD year for NorCal:
            *Tsunami in Crescent City wiped out most of the city
            *Hanley fire in Santa Rosa destroys 84 homes
            * Eel & Klamath Rivers erase several towns off the map, thousands of homes destroyed, 19 dead & 46 counties declared disaster.

            (even more oddly, Hanley Fire burned thru famed Pepperwood Grove, the Eel R wiped out the town of Pepperwood.)

          • That was my first thought too. I won’t begin to share insurance ramifications

          • Dan the Weatherman

            With La Nina in place now, and the fact that 1964-65 was also a La Nina, I am wondering if Norcal will get some heavy rains later this year, even if the results aren’t nearly as severe as what happened in 1964.

          • Hard to tell if tossing a lit cigarette has a seasonal influence on weather. 😉

          • …cigarette tossed /power line collapse when there was an abnormal high wind event….
            Are there abnormally Norcal high offshore winds in the fall preceding LaNina flood events?
            Worth looking into if I have time, but the wife says “get off the blog & LETS GO”

          • LaNina often opens the door for big Pineapple Express events.
            Watch out just after Arctic outbreaks past mid Dec when there’s a big snowpack.
            (’64 flood pineapple express storm had the extra boost of reminants from super-typhoon Opal. 33″ in a week in Humboldt )

          • Hopefully we’ll some component from the tropics at the right time to make that happen a few times.

          • Days & days of air attack isn’t cheap. Jet bomber was back forth

    • Chowpow

      One of my my buddies was a resource manager on the redwood fire, he said they were pushing $15 million a day for suppression on that one alone.

      • 36,523 acres, 545 homes destroyed.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      It is amazing how little Nat’l coverage these have received. We’ve seen commercials from the likes of TMobile and Wal Mart talking about supporting hurricane relief. Outside of the local commercials, Raley’s/Safeway fundraising and the Band Together concert this week we’ve seen very little support for those affected by the North Bay Fires. I guess fires are not as “Sexy” as hurricanes because you can’t hang on a pole to survive in a live shot.

      I talked to a car dealer in the area and he said short term it hurt their business but now seeing an uptick as those with cars destroyed are coming in with their insurance money looking for new cars.

      • Not to mention a massive building boom (at least for Fountain Grove $$)
        I was in line at the bank in Ukiah & some poor disheveled woman was asking what she was supposed to do about mortgage payments on her destroyed home in Redwood Valley

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
      • Well, it’s depressing for sure

        • Dan the Weatherman

          The 3rd pic really shows an example of the destruction that took place.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          The hills leaving Petaluma, Napa were just tough to look at. Very sobering.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    NWS_LA noted frequent lightning strikes SW of SoCal this morning but slug of moisture is dissipating before reaching us.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Strong ridge on the end of the 12z.

    • Yes, ridging between storms?

      • jstrahl

        Between which storms? 🙂

          • jstrahl

            Hey, i look at models too (of all sorts 🙂 ), i didn’t really see anything i’d call a real storm, or what we used to call storms before the long drought which made every rain event look like a storm. Just saying.

          • NWS discussion: “….the first front (Wed) looks the wettest and has a fairly good tap of subtropical moisture and gusty southwest winds. Gusts of 50 mph are possible…..there are indications a secondary low will form along the front and this could bring stronger winds…..GFS now has another frontal boundary and associated band of rain Thurs afternoon and a 3rd Friday afternoon. This rain is expected to bring rapid rises on rivers & streams….”
            Yes, this does NOT include SoCal, but you in Berkeley WILL see these high winds & rain showers.
            There ya go!

          • Bombillo1

            They’re calling for almost 5 inches of rain here. It’s a storm, I’d say…

          • Bombillo1

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2747edb9d12bcfc3225a1814f41450bb3a7a71c3f165e025853a329a0835ec12.png

            They’re calling for over 5 inches of rain here. Everything lining up for a normal winter now…

          • Howard Goodman

            I’ll have a race with ya

          • Howard Goodman

            What destruction derby ?

          • Howard Goodman
          • Is that Rag Dump during the Drought?

          • Howard Goodman

            Pismo beach

          • No, actually, 1/4 mi circle track, dirt & asphalt
            200 lap enduro series at Roseville & Altamont.
            That was a 77 Monte Carlo after 10 races.
            Still ran great!

          • Howard Goodman

            Yeah years ago my friend Bill Cabbage owned Altamont

          • Howard Goodman

            How many of you are old enough to have gone to the Rolling Stones Concert at Altamont , I was there !

          • Pfirman

            I was there, and lived to tell about it.

          • Pfirman

            I’ll bet you’re glad you switched your chainsaw to wood.

          • Pfirman

            Just call it a normal week and don’t be too greedy.

          • jstrahl

            3-5 days ahead? Well, maybe, but not holding my breath in Berkeley. For what IT is worth, the 12Z GFS did not show anything of the sort of Wed-Friday.

          • jstrahl

            🙂

          • Yolo Hoe

            Right on — I like the direction this bus is heading

          • Pfirman

            As long as it does not crush the folks under it.

          • jstrahl

            Well, Daniel’s new post doesn’t seem to support the rosy forecast quoted here.

          • Rosey forecast? We’re still slated for 2″+ by weekend. That hasn’t changed.
            He said SoCal is dryer then normal. Look at rain totals by this weekend north of the
            I-80 corridor & see if it’s below normal

          • jstrahl

            “We” being Willits, right? Not the Bay Area. I have problems determining if i’m north of I-80, as it actually runs north south about a mile to my west, along the East Bay shore. 🙂 But how about we continue in the next blog post?

    • Bombillo1

      At least the GOA L is in the right place now. That thing parked over Seattle last week was a freak show.

      http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/west/nhem/weus/rb.html

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      That ridge may on the outside chance help lead to the first artic blast of the season! Ridges in late fall don’t always mean warm temperatures

    • AntiochWx

      I was expecting this, which is why I was thinking the time period after the 15th was going to be difficult for rain at least for some time. ultimately it depends on the GOA synoptics, still waiting to see over the next few runs what may happen.

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      I don’t see that at all. I see ridging but not all that strong and the ridging is centered north of us closer to the GOA

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Low of 48 this morning felt Much warmer than Sunday’s low of 44 F which was reached at 11 PM. I thought we’d be able to get below 40 that day for a change, damn bay

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Working on the first sub 50F minimum here; generally occurs during November. Wonder when both USC & Lindbergh Field will drop into the 40’s since SST are still a bit elevated.

  • Bombillo1

    Good news for Californians that despair for our winter prospects. Looks like we’re in for a historic winter. Not derived by the usual means however. Saudi Arabia and Iran are going to war and they both, directly or indirectly, have access to nuclear weapons. Get your down jackets and mittens, only one set per person.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/blaming-iran-saudi-says-huthi-strike-may-act-145627393.html

    • jstrahl

      Thanks for the bright news. FWIW, the massive fires which came at the end of Gulf War I, as Iraqi troops torched the oil wells in Kuwait before retreating, caused a drastic and sudden change in California’s weather, went from full scale drought to a month of almost non stop rain, 10+ inches in Berkeley.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        That was right around the time Pinatubo blew, wasn’t it?

        • Craig Matthews

          Pinatubo blew June 15, 1991. Sorta O.T but its interesting how quickly the ssta cooled to negative values around the Indonesia-WPac domain after Pinatubo blew. Most likely the tropical regime shift from La Nina to El Nino displaced the warmer ssta eastward to the central and EPac, cooling the WPac in the process. But I’ve also read the debates that perhaps the eruption increased the cooling effects of the ssts in those particular regions of the Oceans in tandem with the developing El Nino. Which also, influenced the circulatory-ssta regimes outside of the tropical domain, ie NPAC/NATL. Seen lotta debates over this one and I surely don’t know… But regardless, here in Ca our winters became wetter for several years after that eruption. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/40de9b1059d0435df51fe345c5d40bef2377f0e4a4d441d5edbf5fcc4e30d5fa.png

        • Pfirman

          You should just change your handle to WXwatcher. As it stands it is a bit of an oxymoron.

    • matthew

      Buying oil futures….now!

      • Bombillo1

        Or load up on TSLA. Fuch oil.

        • matthew

          Nothing like a good ME war to spike oil prices…making it easier to load up on Tesla. Or just buy one of their cars.

        • Phix the battery. ANYBODY can/does build a car with an electric motor. Talk to Panasonic

          • Bombillo1

            Spent some time in Palo Alto this past summer and the hotel was next to the Tesla dealer. I really looked them over. I asked the agent there how long an electric motor could be expected to last, understanding that a battery change out needs to be done at some point. As you know, the IE gas motor is good for +- 250K miles. Explosions, oil galleys, water jackets, fuel injectors, well all the bullshit. The guy said they had one of their E motors going for one million miles and do not know what the theoretical limit might be! They haven’t even started using interesting coil materials yet so huge potential there and very low laying fruit.

            As you noted the battery tech is the final pin on this. The Guy that invented the Li Ion battery in 1990 (professor Richard Goodenough at UT Austin) just filed for patent on his next generation battery, a solid state Li battery that has 3 times the power density, 1/10th the charging time and much safer. Others are making huge progress with battery chemistries that might even be better. The IE engine is done in 5 years. Place your bets accordingly.

          • AntiochWx

            I have huge positions in the lithium market, up 240% since investing in a company in the lithium triangle in SA. Whether it’s Tesla or another company, EVs are the future, and it would be wise for those to get on board. Oil is going to struggle with decreasing demand over the next few decades as more EVs come on line.

          • Pfirman

            Well, how long ago did you invest? It’s all about rates, right? Lots of bipolar people to provide equilibrium in the demand too.

          • Perfecting the ‘battery’. 5 years? I think you know a lot more about this than I do. My only hi-tech mogul friend says ten years.
            Curious how this would impact developing countries.
            Do you know how hard it would be to make the switch from the major and minor car companies? From the ground up new factories? Retooling existing ones. Topic for another forum but since Daniel will have a new blog up later…go for it! 🙂

          • Pfirman

            Mufflers should be hot for a while.

      • Pfirman

        Iodine.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Neither have nukes. (yet) As far as we know, unless Little Kim had a garage sale.

      • Bombillo1

        Iran and its own nuclear program + Pakistan connection. Saudis, well if you have the $$ you get the stuff.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          Last month the Saudis purchased THAAD anti-missile systems from the US, and S-400 Air Defense systems from Russia. I guess they were stocking up.

          • gray whale

            love you guys, but….

            you are all so flagged

          • Bombillo1

            Nuclear winter, we’re cool.

    • Craig Matthews

      Still the best shot I’ve seen yet for last spring irt the color contrast on the hills above the plain.

      • I D/L one huge pano 12,000 x 5000 or something like that but disgust has a pixel limit of 6K x Y. Getting a 66mb file down under 5Mb is easy. Still haven’t figured out a way to get past the pixel limit LOL

        • Craig Matthews

          Yeah it p/o s me off every time I try to post a good one. If you find a way please let me know, lol.

    • jstrahl

      WOW!! One day i’ll get there in time for the flowers, was there in March ’82 on the way to Death Valley (from 101 at Atascadero going east), but Spring was a touch late that year.

    • sectionmaker

      thanx Mr. D!! opening graphic makes old 2d lines and barbs kinda silly!!! great for us observers!!

  • New post ready by evening.

    • Thanks Daniel…when you do address the group WRT you recent paper, please ‘cliff note’ ?= ?0+ ?1?1+ ?2?2+ ?3?3+ ?4?4+ ?5?5+ ?6?6 and go straight to the diagrams with some remedial explanations. 🙂

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Little disappointing to see that we will not have any strong storms atleast until around or past mid November. But, hey all take anything I get and hope for maybe an 1″ of rain in the next 10 days.

  • Another cool shot of spillway. Probably taken from somewhere in the headworks or on top of headworks. It’s easy to see what is new and what is old. The existing upper spillway will be replaced next year. No pictures have been shown of any repair/replacement of post-tension anchor tendons and/or other repairs to the headworks. Maybe this is what’s classified? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cc3d302eb1feabe0e5f7ee65747a943dd44bcbb4f0859fab2dbe4c3d51baeaad.jpg