Monsoon picking up over Southwest; heat & moisture across much of CA

Filed in Uncategorized by on July 2, 2017 2,665 Comments

A very hot start to California summer (except for the immediate coast)

Summer has been off to a very hot start across nearly all of CA away from the immediate coastline. (WRCC)

After a relatively mild spring across most of California, June brought quite the reversal. A prolonged, record-breaking, and unusually “muggy” heatwave enveloped nearly all of California for multiple weeks, and temperatures have only fallen back to average over the past few days. This remarkable early-season heatwave set innumerable daily temperature records across the American Southwest, tied or broke several June monthly records, and actually exceeded or tied the hottest temperature on record at a handful of sites (including Needles, CA and Las Vegas, NV). The very prolonged nature of the heat, combined with the presence of an unusually humid airmass over Northern California, made the human impact of the heat even worse–and also led to consecutive “hot day” and record warm overnight temperature records being set in a number of locations.

Interestingly, this searing heat did not quite make it all to the way to the Pacific coast–and while coastal areas in the Bay Area and Los Angeles area were still warmer than average, the lack of sustained offshore flow and the presence of relatively cool ocean surface temperatures allowed these regions a very localized reprieve from the extreme heat. This “cool coast/hot inland” setup is most pronounced during California heatwaves occurring earlier in the calendar year, when coastal upwelling tends to be strongest and when the natural “air conditioning” provided by the marine layer is at its most effective. Autumn heatwaves, on the other hand, tend to be characterized by stronger offshore flow and are more “isothermal”–with similarly hot temperatures occurring far inland and at the immediate coast.

 

Western ridge rebuilds; heat & and monsoonal flow commence

Strong high pressure will set up shop in a classic summer monsoon position over the interior Southwest in the coming days. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

It does appear that Western heat will make a return this week. This, time, as the western ridge builds, middle atmospheric winds will turn toward the southeast over California–opening the door for a substantial influx of monsoonal moisture for the first time this year. As anticyclonic circulation strengthens in the coming days, afternoon thunderstorms will develop to an increasingly widespread degree over the deserts of northern Mexico and southern Arizona, the remnants of which will eventually move from east to west over Southern California. This is a classic early monsoon pattern, and it’s one that the global weather models can capture well at the large scale, but the details are usually rather hard to discern more than a couple of days in advance.

At the moment, it does appear that Southern (and possibly central California as far north as the Bay Area) may be in a generally favorable position to see occasional pulses of moisture and mid-level atmospheric instability over the next 2 weeks. This will probably lead to bouts of widespread mountain and desert thunderstorms, and probably at least a couple of shots at isolated thunderstorms across coastal areas. The timing is impossible to pin down at this point, as weak mesoscale disturbances rotating around the 4-Corners High will dictate the highest likelihood of thunderstorms. As usual, there will be some fire weather concerns associated with dry lightning (especially in the wake of our big heatwave).

Monsoonal moisture will likely overspread much of California in the coming days, leading to mountain and desert thunderstorms. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

The upcoming heatwave won’t be nearly as intense as the last one, although it will still be quite hot away from the coast (and increasing humidity across Southern California may yield increasingly “muggy” conditions as well). There is a bit of uncertainty at the moment regarding how long the strong western ridge will persist. But there are indications that it will be pretty long-lived–and may yield a prolonged 2+ week period of relatively hot conditions and somewhat frequent opportunities for monsoonal moisture and associated convective activity (especially mountains and deserts). It’s that time of year!

 

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  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

    I know we track total acreage burned via fires every year, but do we know the average number of distinct fires? Seems like there has been a lot of fires this year considering we have not had much dry lightning events. I know its hot, but still seems like they are popping up everywhere with no cause.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      I believe Cal Fire has said they’re have been more fires this year going back to Jan 2017.

    • Admode (Susanville)

      I just googled it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_California_wildfires

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_California_wildfires

      Not sure how up to date the 2017 page is but I included the 2016 page for reference.

    • alanstorm

      Well, there’s a HUGE uptick in tourist travel this summer. It’s been years since I’ve seen so many travelers pulling 5th wheels up hwy 101. The hiways to the country are clogged every weekend
      Most of the fires so far up here in Mendocino County have been auto-related. Cigarettes, dragging chains or car fires

      • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

        Great points.

    • Amy Cohen

      A few years ago, I was hiking in the foothills around the Caughlin Ranch area in Reno on a hot + windy summer day. Out of nowhere, a bush several feet in front of me ignited and quickly grew into an out of control fire. I had a brief moment to inspect the cause before sprinting to my car to call 911. Somebody decided to toss a bathtub upside down into the sagebrush along with several paint cans to avoid taking a trip to the dump and paying for it. The weird rubber like material used to insulate a tub during installation is what ignited. So, I think spontaneous combustion is the cause of many of these fires. Imagine how many people throughout corrupt and criminal infested California simply decide to drive into the mountains and dump their garbage instead of properly taking it to the dump? They can instantly get rid of their problem and make somebody else deal with it.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        I wonder how often pieces of glass on dry brush can ignite fires? This would be similar in a way to the interior of a car getting really hot with all the windows rolled up.

      • Bombillo1

        Well, at the risk of getting Daniel really fired up, there should not be dump fees (unless construction related). Having to fork over $40.00 to get rid of junk is very disincentivising. Should be sales tax supported.

    • jeff anon

      since there is a lot more annual grasses this year it is easyier for fires to start and makes them move much faster. the last 5 years have been lacking the amount of annual grasses

  • Cap’n

    I’m ready for my daily dose of destruction; any Twitter fire updates? Smoke has really pushed back in this afternoon. Hey Mathew I hit the motherlode of free wood over by Blue Coyote, heading over to get my second load. There’s at least 2-4 cords still oh lodgepole and Jeffery rounds. Pine Cone under the power lines.

    • AlTahoe

      They just cut down some trees here on the college campus and sent out this message this morning.

      “Hi Everyone,
      The trees have been cut
      down over the last couple days. Whatever wood is still laying on the ground
      near the cut sites is free for the taking, first come first served. Most of the
      wood should be near the corner of Incline Way and country club drive.”
      Thanks!

  • Thunderstorm

    A question for everyone that lives in the Sierras. A weak low is supposed to set up off the coast of northern California next week and linger for awhile. Does this low in the summer bring higher winds to the area.

    • AlTahoe

      Yes. A low even entering Oregon like this previous Monday and Tuesday really gets the wind cranking up here.

      • Thunderstorm

        Hope that they have a meteorologist on the Detwiler Fire that will know about this and they have a plan.

    • Yeah.

  • Craig Matthews

    As a temporary side-step comment to the ongoing fire/heat/warming situation….Here’s some years I’ve found on the ESRL Plotting and Reanalysis site in regard to “potential similar” SSTA gyre analogs for later this year into the next. Lot more to consider then just SSTA of course. But will be interesting to see how this year’s SSTA evolution plays out across the board. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b1c3d77f759adee989545f64801feb2ef0b8990b6a54eaa8e5364bf21acce878.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e25514fdef5fc3baef560c318c56eb06d2d667c01519fba9bc242a2c56e00dd4.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bcdeff032e36805d825054c29087081646bbdeca79abe03cddf91ea96d9d4c8f.png

    • Craig Matthews

      1980-81, 1993-94, 2003-04, and 2005-06 wouldn’t post, bummer, but they look similar SSTA wise as well… will try posting later if anyone is interested….now back to the regular schedule..

      • Yeah I’m interested of course. I’ll mention a fairly positive MEI currently to maybe change your thoughts? I’m not buying a LaNina. Selling her short to CFS. LOL
        I’m still wondering if there’s still another year of blow-off from 15-16? The Atlantic may still fire up some hurricanes. The EQ EPAC is all manic again. Kinda like what is expected in a developing +ENSO

        • Chris

          The winds south of these hurricanes is westerly too. ….

        • Craig Matthews

          Always interested in your inputs..esp your atmospheric addys MEI winds etc. I’m leaning toward a cocktail mix of 2003-04, 19443-44 and a bit of 2005-06. Right now, I’m particularly interested in 1943-44, 1993-94, and 2003-04 atmosphere corr to their ssta gyres, so any addy as far as winds and pressure variance data for those years, or other ones you find is most welcome from ya. Check out 2003-04, notice the IO ssta was in a weak +IOD like gyre, and ssta was relatively flat between west and east tropical pac with a couple of patches of neutral in the middle. At this time a 2003-04- like ssta gyre would seam more likely, being the vast +ssta, the depth of negative anomalies below the surface of the eqpac( or how far down those negative values are below the +ssta at the surface and just below in the centra-eastern eqPac). However it is a question of where the atmosphere takes it from here. Recently, there has been a tremendous convection amp in the Indo-WPac which could create a snap back Nina atmospheric response the next few weeks at least depending on what the wave does. If we get a strong long lasting trade surge over the eqpac, re-occurring into the fall, then I also think it is possible to see neg values show in the eastern eq pac surface flowing toward the central eqpac, giving ssta gyre like late 1993 or late 2005, or cool ssta epac – warm west. But if weaker trades I think 2003-04 is more likely. More years to explore tho. And need to look into MEI/SOI, etc is a must! Anyway here’s 1993-94 and 2003-04, with 2003-04 being the closer to potential IMHO. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1a35332d7cba7f494b7c11eaf50cb8f0186478b947ae20f9129565cd320e1b6f.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1a35332d7cba7f494b7eaf50cb8f0186478b947ae20f9129565cd320e1b6f.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/10e0028a8838b1dca6267c1367c675a1f2073eea81141fb1984796fefef57ad1.png

          • Craig Matthews

            Adding on to the bottom of your comment irt eqpac manic…possible being pre +ENSO like. Paul Roundy mentioned something like that as well. He mentioned fall 1994 🙂

          • jstrahl

            Fall ’94? We know how ’94-5 turned out.

          • Craig Matthews

            Here’s the VP signal over the Indo-far WPac I mentioned as a strong convective amp. Looks HUGE!! This will no doubt impact the trades as the potential is highly elevated for increased east to west atmos. grads across the tropPac domain as the pressure lowers, potentially a lot, in far WPac. Some models progress that signal into wpac which would be interesting. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b343aad1d5c4a410db3a05ed48567f9f87d70c593a60ac597e359cd3a643e670.gif

          • Get me an analog that has cooler water over Hawaii and a wee bit north and east…. 🙂 With weak/neutral the atmosphere doesn’t connect so that’s what I’d zero in on. (Atmosphere similarities with those analogs) I’m running out now. Sorry I can’t reply with a more complete answer. Just have time to type from the hip, per se.

      • jstrahl

        2005-6 is quite different from the others, at least regarding Bay Area rain totals, the first 3 were below to slightly below average, the last was well above average.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Super wicked post Craig!

  • AntiochWx

    18z doesn’t quite have the intensity the 12z had, so that is a start. Hoping 00z runs show some mercy.

  • AntiochWx

    So at least the 18z isn’t as intense as the 12z was, hopefully the 00z isn’t as relentless with the long range ridge.

  • Thunder98

    I predict that most of California will see yet another wet winter ahead. This is my 1st prediction and I will revise and will add more details as time goes on.

    • Steve Lutton

      Well, I’m on your side so I agree.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      That is my prediction as well, but not as wet as this last year. I’m thinking anywhere from 125%-175% percent of average for California

      • Cap’n

        I’ll take 117% average but colder.

    • Pfirman

      Let me know when you have reached ‘dry winter ahead’, aka revised prediction number 121.

      • Tuolumne

        I prefer retrodicting. Much less stressful and I can even quote exact rainfall figures.

  • Thunder98
  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Terrible news. & it may only just be the beginning… https://twitter.com/abc7/status/888230854585073668

    • Cap’n

      Oh no. So are we thinking it’s made it’s way into downtown Mariposa or maybe these are areas on the outskirts? What a bummer. I think this fire season is just going to be horrible.

    • Pfirman

      That photo is very disturbing.
      What is that guy doing there? Running? What are those high weeds doing there? What are those people doing living there?

      • inclinejj

        He looks like a fire fighter to me.

        • Pfirman

          Of course, but what is doing? Or what was he doing? I don’t recognize what he is carrying either.

          • SBMWill

            Maybe checking if anyone was inside or if any pets bad been left behind. Assessing the property before its destroyed for a post fire report? Not sure if those guys can disconnect power or gas in some way. Obviously I’m not an expert. But clearly there was an extreme lack of property weed abatement going on. Looks like the place may be abandoned.

      • Admode (Susanville)

        He’s carrying a drip torch, man. He lit that fire to protect that structure. The sucking of the main fire plus favorable winds will drive that back burn towards the main fire before the energy of the main fire gets to the house.

      • Admode (Susanville)

        There might be some tall weeds on the back side of that house but if you look closely you can see that there has been a lot of prep put into where he’s walking.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      This looks really bad and is reminiscent of the Rim Fire. If the fire is growing at the rate it has the last couple days ( 20-30 k everyday) it could be 100 k acres by morning. This jump in destroyed homes makes me think that it has finally started affecting the main town of Mariposa

  • AntiochWx

    So far I like 06-07 as my analog. I’m thinking this winter will be slightly below average temperatures with 85-100% of precipitation.

    • Craig Matthews

      I’m leaning to those percent numbers as well, yet hopeful for more precip then that, especially for socal.

    • Pfirman

      Well, do come back next spring and let us know how much crow you have to eat. Of course, met folks never look back.

      • AntiochWx

        Heh, I’ve always been the humble type. I will always come back right or wrong, it makes no difference to me. Long range forecasting is all an educated guess anyways.

        • Pfirman

          Ok, change ‘crow’ to ‘humble pie’.

      • AntiochWx

        I wish I was a met, I have some met and climate education from the penn st university, but I never finished the major and switched. I passed calc 1, but immensely struggled with multivariable calculus.

        • Pfirman

          I hear you brother.

        • jstrahl

          I could’ve helped. 🙂

          • AntiochWx

            Maybe maybe not, I had a few tutors in college, and it just seemed I could not grasp it. It might be because I easily forget things, I swear I will learn it then forget it months later.I will probably give it a shot again sometime or other, weather is like my drug, I can’t get away from it and I hate not being able to do it for a job.

          • jstrahl

            My experience of over 25 years in tutoring and teaching multivariable calculus is that students really need a general understanding of why it’s being done, what the applications are, if they are to make any sense of it, and most of the time the theory is taught before any of the applications are brought in, as “word problems” or numerical problems.

    • SBMWill

      Your funny making predictions. One thing I now understand about weather and our future is all predictions are wrong.

      • AntiochWx

        What is so funny about it? Please don’t feel that way, there is a lot of science that indicates it isn’t all guess work. Especially climate, because climate can be predicted because of variables that are known to increase temperature. See physics on black body radiation and thermodynamics. We know if a planetary body has a higher concentration of greenhouse gases, its overall temperature will increase. Long long term climate changes are based on Milankovitch cycles.

        • jstrahl

          Temperature is but one of several hundred variables involved, many of which are hard to measure if not downright impossible, and many of which are not even known, i.e. unknown unknowns. Long term predictions based upon CO2 content are quite possible, that’s climate. But climate is not the same as weather, which is short range.

          • AntiochWx

            Right, that is where I was getting at. Weather predictions do not equal climate predictions as some people confuse. Climate predictions can generally be predicted because of the nature of its input/output type system. We know greenhouse gases, TSI, and volcanic activity are the primary climate drivers other than the Milankovitch cycles. Weather because of its short term variability and caos will always be generally difficult to predict because like you said has so many variables.

        • SBMWill

          Agree to disagree

          • AntiochWx

            You could at least tell me why you disagree, I’d like to at least hear your reasoning, whether we agree or not.

    • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

      Oh yeah, well I predict this next winter to be a whopper of a winter with deluge after deluge a storm season of epic proportions!! ??? it’s gonna be a repeat of 2017 winter except this time SoCal gets in on more of the action as well! I predict above average precipitation for NorCal and SoCal!

      • AntiochWx

        Not to be rude, but what are you basing your prediction from other than wishcasting. You have specific weather analogs or scientific logic? Just curious to hear your reasoning, and others for that matter who think it will be a repeat of last year.

        • Cap’n

          We do this every year, we wishcast and flip coins to predict the coming season and then post our findings here on the World Wide Web.

          • AntiochWx

            but where is the science in that? I don’t do voodoo and healing crystals. I need substance.

          • Cap’n

            I hear you. But after I’ve analyzed all of the data and the charts, I still like to line up my 45 bobbleheads on the window sill of my shed and drip candle wax over each one. Whoever is the last standing will then tell me what to expect come winter.

            It’s a guilty pleasure.

          • AntiochWx

            Don’t get me wrong, its ok to have some guilty pleasure, but I try and keep my rational to science and mathematics as much as possible. I once tried my hand in blackberry, acorn, and wooly caterpillar winter analysis. I guess that is as guilty pleasure as I get I suppose.

          • Crouching Dallas

            Couldn’t have picked a better time to log back into WeatherWest. Cheers to you and your bobbleheads, Cap’n.

          • Cap’n

            Good to see you on here. I figured you had runoff with Jackie Johnson into the sunset…

          • Pfirman

            Figured something was off. That’s three too many bobbleheads.

          • We’ve been missing some real good prose here. Raise one from the dead.

          • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

            We’re you on here the last few years. If you went with the “science”, the 2016 El Nino was supposed to cause a deluge and 2017 was going to be very dry. We know how that turned out.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            Not everybody forecasted the same thing for 15-16 & 16-17, however a general idea was proposed & it went south pretty quickly.

          • AntiochWx

            Statisically speaking, El Ninos , especially strong El Ninos have historically produced wetter than normal conditions, the science is there but it like anything is still subject to probabilities. The RRR had a lot to do with it, and unfortunately with changing global SSTs and the expansion of the hadley cells, new semi permanent features will start to overwhelm certain atmospheric indicators.

          • jstrahl

            Eh? There was no RRR in 2015-16.

          • Hadley Cell did not cooperate as the models thought it would. If it had, SoCal would have had been in the game BIG time. SST’s IMO were way too warm in Nino4 which was why Nino 3.4 set a record. If Nino3 and Nino1+2 had anomalies that were warmer than Nino3.4 and 4 The beast would have delivered.

          • AntiochWx

            In the true sense of the RRR which was mostly 2013-2015, I’d say no, but as Pluvious said, the Hadley Cell was not cooperating.

          • Charlie B

            Remember February 2016? It might not have been a classic RRR, but that month featured 12 days of bone dry warmth with then one moderate mid month storm and then another two weeks of dry warmth.

          • Thesaurus is adding all the contributors on this board as a synonym to the word motley when used as a noun. If you asked “What is a half dime?” You would get clever, sarcastic, silly, truth, and answers that contain dogs and certainly bobble heads. Your contributions are valued here by more than just an upvote

          • Cap’n

            Hey make a prediction with your charts and analogs that is actually even close to correct at some point and your jargon will finally be less nonsensical than bobblehead chatter.

          • I’m trying but it takes Rx drugs in the right combo.

          • Cap’n

            My comment was harsh. I had just come back from a competitive meditation/yoga class so I was frothing from the fingertips. Your comment got me going. I have a huge ego but at the same time I feel ‘less-than’. There is some great intelligent analysis on here and I definitely put you in that bracket. I sometimes lashout because the vast majority of it escapes comprehension due to my pea brain. In all honesty I guess I really don’t have much faith in anything at all.

            Please like me?

          • Tuolumne

            Wishcast is a great word!

        • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

          The weather wizard told me so! 😉

          • jstrahl

            Thanks for the good analysis, Tyler. We’ll see, but what you say does base itself upon pretty good logic.

          • AntiochWx

            I appreciate your input, this is all I ever ask of anyone. I like different opinions provided they have some logic to back them up. I agree with the PDO switch, it definitely looks to have switched, but the next few years will fully confirm it. I think the correlation is there with +PDO and warmer summers, I will have to look at some composites later. I still want to see more evidence on the RRR and its ability to overwhelm the ENSO conditions. If it comes back this winter or even next, we can start to really be concerned because it means it maybe a sign of a more semi-permanent feature. Traditionally neutral and El Ninos have boded well for California, but I’m not sold until I see the RRR having less influence in our winters.

          • alanstorm

            So what was the deal with the consistently flaccid/loopy JETSTREAM during the RRR’s rein?
            Was it-
            A….. abnormally weak meridional flow gave rise to or allowed the formation of a RRR/omega on steroids (with enhancement from a self-reinforcing feedback loop in the form of a GOA BLOB on steroids)
            OR…
            B….the Pacific JET was re routed to Alaska every Jan-Feb during this period BECAUSE of the RRR on steroids with BLOB inhancment?
            OR….
            C…..all of the above

            Layman here-
            Chicken or egg question really. Who made who?

            & who’s supplying the steroids?

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I wouldn’t want a repeat of 2006-07 for Socal, though! It was absolutely BONE DRY in Socal that season, with Los Angeles having its driest season on record of a measly 3.21″ from July 1, 2006 to June 30, 2007. 2006-07 wasn’t a warm year like 2013-14 or 2014-15, and as a matter of fact there was quite a cold snap in mid-January that did a fair amount of damage to ornamental landscape plants, especially in the Inland Empire.

      If anyone knows why 2006-07 was so dry for Socal, feel free to comment. I know it was a fairly average year in Norcal. I had more rain here in Orange from May to September 2015 than I did for the entire 2006-07 season!

      • AntiochWx

        I’m not rooting for a repeat of 06-07 either, its just what I think may happen given some of the conditions that are occuring now and similarities in ENSO pattern as I outlined in my graphic I posted. I wasn’t going based on the whole year of temperatures for 06-07, only was basing it on summertime temperatures in 06, mainly June and July. I’m not sure how August will turn out, ultimately depends if the 4 corners high will shift enough to let the offshore trough to dig in.

      • AntiochWx

        The more I look at it, the more 04-05 does seem to fit as well.

      • weathergeek100

        It’s incredible how dry that year was. 3.21″ for LA? One good storm can drop that much rain on the city.

      • AlTahoe

        That winter it didn’t snow in Tahoe until February and then we got like 10′ in 3 weeks. That was pretty much it for the entire winter.

    • AlTahoe

      I have been seeing this Analog and 2003-2004 coming up a lot and some mentions of 1981-1982.

      I am thinking that the mega block that setup shop over Alaska last winter will return again this winter in a slightly more westward location allowing for more cold snaps. The mega block tends to show up in consecutive years in the past. If moisture can undercut the ridge again and meet up with the cold air we could see good snowfall totals. I am going with 425″ of snowfall for the Donner pass snowfall site, and more snow than last year at South Lake Tahoe. We will break the 200″ mark for the first time since 2010-2011.

      • Cap’n

        What was the final tally for Central Sierra Snowlab on Donner ? I find it impossible to navigate that site and BA has disappeared. I’m thinking around 550″ or so.

        • AlTahoe

          Their Facebook page has a season total of 570″ which puts it around 18th place

          • Cap’n

            I was close! Ended up with 350″ down at 5,900 at our place, plus a whole bunch of rain.

      • jstrahl

        Those two seasons were quite different.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
    • Pfirman

      It would be interesting to take the last ten years and ‘paint’ the areas of the state that have burned, with depth of color according to what has reburned over that timespan. Any idea as to what percentage of land would be covered?
      Then move on to the entire west.

      • PRCountyNative

        An arsonist’s treasure map!

      • alanstorm

        I think Lake County would be dark red/black

      • Admode (Susanville)

        There are his maps that you can find which show fire history by decade. You can click on each fire and it will give you stats. Is that kind of what you mean?

  • AntiochWx
    • AntiochWx

      Solidly neutral conditions. If I get time later, I will try and run composites of all the neutral ENSO years and neutral years coming off a previous El Nino.

      • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

        I think we are technically coming off a weak La nina, not an El Nino.

        • AntiochWx

          I meant within the last 2 years, in relative terms (moderate to strong) shouldn’t be vage in my discussions, I will tighten them up.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Really enjoying the work you are putting into correlating analogs & discussing with others in a fair & honest manner.

        • AntiochWx

          I try to be as fair in my discussions as possible, I have no problem with differing opinions, I just want to see some rational discussions, afterall that is how we progress to more accurate predictions.

    • CFS hasn’t been dragging the bottom in quite some time. I don’t have time at the moment to compare last 4-5 years. I don’t remember off the top of my head it ever being in the bottom 1/2.

  • Pfirman

    From Daniel’s retweet…..if I may.

    ‘It’s a “cruel irony,” Frumkin said, that as
    the world gets hotter, we need more air conditioning, and thus consume
    more electricity. And if that electricity comes from fossil fuel
    sources, it will create more global warming, which in turn will increase
    the demand for air conditioning. The answer, he said, is to “decarbonize the electric grid.” But that’s
    easier said than done, especially when the Trump administration is
    devoted to increasing the use of fossil fuels to support the country’s
    electrical grid.’

    • PRCountyNative

      The rest of the world, led by China, is pledging to upgrade their national electric grids, then form a worldwide electric grid, powered by renewables.

      Geothermal from Iceland, sun for solar from the tropics and African desert, wind from all those windy places. Add in existing hydroelectric.

      The bigger the grid the less need for any storage. “It’s always sunny (and windy) somewhere!”

      At last report China said they were ahead of schedule on their national grid upgrade.

      • Pfirman

        Anybody remember Buckminster Fuller and his idea of a global energy grid?

        I have summarized
        my discovery of the option of humanity to become omnieconomically
        and sustainably successful on our planet while phasing
        out forever all use of fossil fuels and atomic energy
        generation other than the Sun. I have presented my
        plan for using our increasing technical ability to
        construct high-voltage, superconductive transmission
        lines and implement an around-the-world electrical
        energy grid integrating the daytime and nighttime
        hemispheres, thus swiftly increasing the operating
        capacity of the world’s electrical energy system and,
        concomitantly, living standard in an unprecedented
        feat of international cooperation.

      • Nathan

        Pledge*

    • roseland67

      What Trump administration says they’re going to do and what they actually do, are rarely the same,
      (so far anyway).
      Time will tell

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    The fires growth has been stunted an has only grown about 1,000 acres since yesterday. Stats: 74,000 acres, 15% contained, 3,700 personal on the fire, 1,500 structures threatened. They even go as far to say they are making a turn on the wildfire! This is the best news we got from the start of it. http://www.mercedsunstar.com/news/local/community/mariposa-and-yosemite/article162825563.html

  • Cap’n

    Another morning with the space heater on in the bathroom. 36F with a high of 82F predicted. Getting to be time for those huge August temperature swings in Truckee.

  • Thunder98
  • Finally looks like a decent monsoonal surge will actually occur on Monday/Tuesday. Will probably write an update on this, plus our very hot summer thus far, over the weekend. Also: long range, looks like there will be a pretty big hurricane west of Baja that will be in a somewhat favorable position for moisture advection into CA around the start of August…

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      I have seen both of these things and I am extremely excited! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017072106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      YUP :D. All 3 models have a good agreement up until about 120 hours for our region.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        It appears to be a very slow moving easterly wave that slides up the GoC & Baja is pulled into SoCal by the recurring upper level low I have been mentioning that’s been sitting off SW of SoCal along with an incoming low caught in the flow from the GOA trough currently spinning up north. This low is sitting just east & north of 30N, 140W at the moment. These two lows will be the driver for how far the easterly wave’s energy makes it NW. Euro 00Z has the idea as well, however only the 700mb flow pattern stays east of the usual monsoonal points of SoCal (mountains, deserts.) However latest GFS trend has been showing this wave making it far enough west that it advects into the PNW. Likely a mixing of the two lows & the wave with the idea I mentioned above, going to be a tricky convective event if it occurs. Here is the triangle of lower heights over the state on the Euro… & then GFS latest run. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d896d261a7e653c509a78ae4921522b44c569cafd845a7b098826ef734ebf050.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e956963c4621d2688cbc331b952a2c11f0b4f736133347103c6aaac7f26328ad.png

        It seems the easterly wave is advected more progressively by the northern low in the latest run of the GFS compared to the Euro having the southern low less progressive with the wave & the southern low having more influence. Euro 12Z will be interesting. Here is the northern low coming in out of the NPAC. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9e88d1f27b02f8655e6cf5922a3e085a47fdb8b58c95794c49215298ec248c9b.gif

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        So far this season models haven’t handled these Monsoonal surges well, as the moisture has ended up not as far West as initially projected. The upcoming pattern does look interesting though, and hopefully we get to see some convection and T-Storms West of the mountains.

        • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

          Totally agree, even Oxnard has mentioned the difficulty forecasting this season’s monsoon surges. Arizona has benefited greatly this season with the position of the HP center location more to the west as compared to previous years. Also, I believe the trough off the NW coast and it’s dry southwest flow has also been a factor for our very limited convection here in SoCal.

    • Nathan

      Yaaaaay fires in socal!!! Yaaay monsoon.

  • jstrahl

    Sorry if already posted, but this article has a very intense photo of the effect of the Mariposa fire on the Tahoe area. http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Detwiler-Fire-Mariposa-smoke-Lake-Tahoe-sunset-CA-11303340.php

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
    • DelMarSD

      Dolores 2.0?

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      To make this summer more like 2015. It has been humid and some great cumulonimbus build ups but no rain thus far.

  • AntiochWx

    Who wants to do some spell casting to increase our odds of getting a Terribly Tenacious Trough?

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      That includes GOA systems and Hawaiian express

  • Charlie B

    A lot of good discussion going on. This is what I call the summer boredom fueled discussion of the upcoming winter during the midst of the fire season when the state is generally burning and we all yearn for a change (or “sbfduwdmofswsigbwyfac” for short.) It is a hearty and well respected Weather West tradition, for those new here. Here is my take: During this upcoming fall, winter and spring there will be periods of rain in lower areas and snow in the higher mountains. The north state will likely receive more precipitation than the south. Heaviest precipitation will likely fall in places in the north coast mountains like Honeydew and in the lower northern Sierra like Rag Dump. Helen Lake on the south slope of Mt. Shasta will probably win the snowfall crown for the year.The deserts will generally be dry and mild. Certain areas such as Truckee, Alturas and Bodie and Bridgeport will experience cold snaps with temps slightly below zero for a few days. A prolonged arctic outbreak is unlikely but possible. As fall progresses it will generally get colder and wetter statewide, bottoming out in late January and gradually warming though the later winter and into the spring. The snow pack will peak around April 1 and gradually melt after that. The central valley, especially the San Joaquin, will experience dense fog on occasion, especially during times of high pressure aloft which result in strong inversions. In between storms, the coast will be delightful, and the skiing, especially at higher elevations, will be fine. The spring will see some nice convective thunderstorms, but none will be that strong (by mid west standards), and none will be destructive.

  • molbiol

    With all due respect, WRT monsoon surge this weekend: The GFS has done an absolutely horrific job and has zero accuracy more than 48hrs out for Socal. Ensemble spread (which I won’t show here since no one looks at that) is very large next week. I guess being at the junction between the subtropics, marine air, and monsoon air is too much for it. Also, it seems like its very hard to forecast the exact position of the anticyclone more than a couple days in advance. Not sure why this is though. …Now back to the global warming wildfire mass hysteria…

  • happ [Los Angeles]