Searing, prolonged heatwave developing across much of California & Desert Southwest

Filed in Uncategorized by on June 16, 2017 2,184 Comments

Prolonged, dangerous heatwave imminent for areas away from coast

Very warm temperatures will encompass all of California during this heat wave. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

After a relatively mild May and early June period across most of California, a rather remarkable heatwave is already underway and will likely persist for many days. Today will be the first of potentially 7-10 very hot days across inland portions of California and interior portions of the American Southwest, and numerous high temperature records are likely to fall in the coming days. The upcoming heat will be of a dangerous intensity and duration in a significant number of highly populated regions, including the Phoenix, Tuscon, Las Vegas, Bakersfield, Fresno, and Sacramento metropolitan areas. Cities closer to the Pacific coast will still see hot to very hot temperatures over the next week, but not to quite as exceptional a degree as these inland areas.

 

Dynamics of a heatwave with some unusual characteristics

The present heatwave strongly resembles a similar event which occurred just last year (in June 2016), which brought record temperatures to inland desert portions of the Southwest. The event over the next 7-10 days, however, has the potentially to slightly more intense and significantly more prolonged–meaning that overall impacts could be considerably greater. It’s interesting to note that both the GFS and ECMWF model ensembles did a good job capturing this event–with strong signals for anomalous warmth appearing 10-14 days in advance.

A very large and unusually strong mid-tropospheric ridge will be in place over the entire Western U.S. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

A strong and broad high pressure ridge is developing over the West Coast and interior Southwest, and will shift slowly westward over time. As it does so, the hottest temperatures will slowly shift from the southern Arizona deserts this weekend to the California interior early next week. Though it’s often California’s good fortune to experience “dry heat”–during which low surface dewpoints actually decrease the “apparent temperature” and take the edge off otherwise searing temperatures–that won’t necessarily be the case during the present heatwave. An unusually moist airmass is currently in place over much of California, which can be linked to the passage of an unusually strong atmospheric river over the Pacific Northwest yesterday (which brought heavy June rain to Washington but just clouds to Northern California). Linger moisture will become trapped within the stagnant airmass under the building ridge–which ultimately means that the extreme temperatures associated with the upcoming heatwave will coincide with a rather moist airmass and unusually high surface dewpoints.

This added moisture has several implications. First, it will make the intense heat feel even more oppressive (i.e. “muggy”), as apparent temperatures will not fall below the actual temperature as they often do during California heatwaves. Second, higher dewpoints will greatly inhibit overnight cooling across inland areas. In fact, portions of the Central Valley could see overnight lows staying as high as 70-80 degrees. Lack of overnight cooling is one of the strongest predictors of heat-related illness during prolonged heatwaves, so this presents significant concerns. Finally, the relatively “juicy” airmass by California standards will allow afternoon thunderstorms to develop over the Sierra Nevada on most afternoons during the heatwave. While not currently depicted in model forecasts, previous experience with events like these suggests that there will be at least a small chance of some convective build-ups and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms outside of the Sierra Nevada. These would be most likely over the San Joaquin Valley, where the confluence of extremely hot temperatures and outflow boundaries propagating away from Sierra Nevada storms could act as a localized trigger. The chance of this happening is low, but it’s worth mentioning as an indicator that this heatwave is a departure from the norm in California.

An unusually moisture airmass will be associated with the developing heatwave across most of California. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

 

Sweltering inland, but merely “hot” near the coast

Slightly cooler than average SSTs are currently in place off the CA coast. (NOAA Coral Reef Watch)

This heatwave will behave more typically in another respect, however: immediate coastal areas will not experience exceptionally hot temperatures during this event. This is a characteristic shared with nearly all June heatwaves in California. Why? The near-shore Pacific Ocean is still too cold enough in May and June to generate strong near-shore sea breezes when things heat up inland–acting as a natural air conditioner for places within about 10 miles of the coastline. Later in the summer (by August and September), sea surface temperatures are warmer, and this effect is less pronounced. This is the reason that San Francisco and the beaches of Southern California typically see their hottest temperatures of the year in late summer and autumn. On the other hand, the upcoming heatwave will likely be prolonged enough to curtail coastal upwelling–meaning that near-shore SSTs may begin to rise by next week and provide progressively less relief as the event drags on.

While the coastal plain of California experiences highs mostly below 90 degrees next week, most of the Central Valley will see temperatures approaching 110 degrees (and perhaps even getting close to 115 in some portions of the San Joaquin). California’s southeastern deserts will see temperatures of 115-120 degrees. Incredibly, the Phoenix, AZ region may see temperatures rising into 122-123 degree territory. Except along the immediate coast, these values will likely break daily temperature records in many places, and will approach monthly June records in some spots. In the hottest desert regions, all-time high temperature records (for any month) may be at risk.

 

Relief in sight? Maybe not.

The ECMWF suggest the searing heatwave may persist for 7-10+ days. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Heatwaves in California rarely last longer than a few consecutive days, or a week at the most. Yet it’s not clear at this point that the developing heatwave will be quick to dissipate. In fact, the ECMWF ensemble now suggests that the ridge may re-strengthen considerably next weekend after weakening only slightly late next week–turning this already remarkable heatwave into a 10+ day event. The GFS is a bit more merciful in showing a partial breakdown of the ridge in 8/9 days, but at this point it’s hard to say which solution is more likely. Either way: this will likely be a high-impact and very uncomfortable event for those living away from the ocean for the next week at least. Stay tuned.

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  • AlTahoe

    It is currently 43F outside and my fingers went numb during the morning dog walk. That 30mph wind yesterday scoured out all of the warm air. My highest temp during the warm spell was 87F. We have hit 90 or higher at least 2 times every suummer since I have lived here.

    • Cap’n

      Yeah our cabin was 60F this morning when I woke up. I actually turned on the space heater in the bathroom for a few; quite a change from the past week.

      • AlTahoe

        I had closed all of my windows last night because the wind was blowing pollen in so it stayed a reasonable 66F. Kind of shocked to go out to the porch for coffee and was able to see my breath in the cold air.

    • matthew

      Yesterday was a solid 10 degrees cooler than the weekend and we were down into the 30’s overnight. Had all the windows open last night and the house was at 58 when I woke up – about 7 degrees cooler than a couple days ago.

  • inclinejj
    • matthew

      Yup, thought I felt something then I read this…

      Truckee has been rocking Tuesday, with at least 28 small earthquakes shaking the high Sierra town overnight, the largest registering a magnitude 3.9 according to the United States Geological Survey.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        3.9 at a shallow depth is a pretty good shaker. I am sure many residents didn’t sleep too well overnight.

        • Cap’n

          I missed the whole thing; my Ambien and Zima cocktail must have done their job.

          • inclinejj

            I have heard people do some pretty weird things while on Ambien.

    • Howard Goodman

      Yeah felt it in Ragdump , this one was more of a vibration

  • Henry

    Very surprised that the Tioga Road still has not opened, 3 weeks after it had been plowed from end to end. The park service claims that the road is still closed because of hazards associated with water on the road.

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    Very comfortable 91 yesterday. Supposed to be 89 today. Nice and cool in the morning. Sure beats last week. Don’t see any big warm ups the near future.

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    San Joaquin River up to 9,000 CFS at Patterson from 3,800 CFS a month ago. No flooding danger.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Another warm night in the foothills and a fast warm-up occurring this morning but by tomorrow the last vestiges of the June heatwave should be behind us though that doesn’t mean much cooling in the low desert.

    L: 70F

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Glad that we are done with the heatwave here and will experience our classic 70s at day and 50s at night, with fog in the morning for the next two weeks. 🙂

    • Rainmaker (San Jose)

      is this pattern really going to stay for the next two weeks?

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        For you in SJ it looks like it’s gonna be seasonal low to mid 80s for around 2 weeks, but for here it’s gonna be a little bit below average and in the mid 70s mostly

  • alanstorm

    On April 13, a prolific lighting producing thunderstorm rolled thru the Granite Bay & Auburn area just outside of Sacramento. An iconic 140′ sequoia redwood in Folsom Lake Estates in Granite Bay was mortally struck, & had to be removed. (Was covered on KCRA TV)
    I was contacted by the owners to carve the remaining stump.
    They wanted bears of course, so I suggested 2 bears with a lightning bolt.
    Started yesterday, should be completed by tomorrow.
    The address is 9610 Oak Leaf WY, Granite Bay if anyone around here cares to see.
    U can see where the bark blew off from the bolt
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4c86cb2eb8c8dd593fc6015e977f897aa28d1c096e0cf063ed245a03309c8839.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a394516e21d7ef03e61bd1616fa609cb46f165ad83d2a33e88db7af11b4f2970.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8420210ba64b65da21bda0627daf1b0e9682a23c25a0d50e18cb8049befee84d.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/85c38357f8687fe06ccb4c7352dce587168f9ba5dcca5b5f85137f12365bdb56.png

    • Drew Stofflet

      This is awesome

      • alanstorm

        Thank you sir

    • I think we all would like to see the finished product!

      • alanstorm

        I shall post today’s progress tonight.

    • malnino

      Sux about the demise of the tree, but so very cool you’re gonna let its’ spirit live on forever!! (unless another bolt or two someday fries the bears). Can’t wait to see how it turns out!!

      • alanstorm

        I’m hoping to obtain some sort of super-powers from the lightning energy?

    • Bombillo1

      I am glad you intervened to give the monument a more fitting significance. My hat is off to you for this and more so if you can pull it all off. Bien hecho.

      • alanstorm

        Job was originally set for last week, & we all know what happened – was “Hell’s Furnace” at 110°

    • Yolo Hoe

      That is seriously impressive — I’d come by but am gone — please post pics of finished masterpiece!

    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      Fallen giant RIP. Please share your memorial shrine product when conplete!

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Well-written/ funny discussion per NWS_SD
    “Much like yesterday there was exactly one patch of fog along the
    San Diego coast from Cardiff south, but today we don`t have a
    southerly surge for that fog to move north along the coast. In
    general, the clear sky above the ocean the past couple days was
    probably the result of northwest flow just above the surface.
    Now we watch a big tongue of stratus clouds marching swiftly and
    purposefully into the bight. This appears to be in response to a
    shortwave moving by to our north. The resulting decrease in high
    pressure aloft will help the intense heat take a chill pill in
    the interior away from the marine layer, and the marine layer
    itself will take care of the cooling west of the mountains. Expect
    more coastal clouds for the coming week. Initially this evening
    the coastal clouds will be fog, but the cloud deck rushing into
    our region is not as shallow on the deck as our coastal patch was
    this morning. In other words, a whole different cloud in a shiny
    new marine layer driving into the showroom. As it moves ashore
    this evening it should deepen rapidly overnight to lift the fog at
    the coast, but spread it inland into western valleys.
    Temperatures, already running lower this morning, will trend
    toward seasonal averages today and Thursday. A brief rebound in
    the high pressure ridge appears on Friday before a weak trough
    pattern arrives Saturday and continues into early next week. That
    would temporarily make Friday a warmer day before getting back to
    seasonal this weekend. The coastal clouds will make it into some
    of the westernmost inland valleys during the nights.”

  • Alison

    As I watch planes drop water/retardant from my back porch, I’m reminded that this is how I know it’s summer in CA. (Back East, summer was more marked by picnics/lightening bugs/monsoon-like rainstorms/mosquitos/freezing late nights at the Waffle House where they cranked the AC down to 55 so that you could shiver while you ate your waffles). Although on the positive side, I’m generally impressed with the fire departments around here. They usually have multiple crews/planes on the scene within 20 minutes. (Ross Valley Fire Department).

    • Howard Goodman

      The camera doesn’t do it justice from the gates on top to the diverters below is over a mile

      • Yolo Hoe

        That’s a cool fact

      • I may be wrong but 3000 ft is closer to accurate.

        • Thunderstorm

          Been watching the live view for 30 minutes. Workers washed and area then a dozer operator covered it with bolders and dirt, on the hillside a road was cut in and another doser operator higher up the same hill pushed dirt down the hill and yep started covering up the road.

        • Pfirman

          You are correct. After diddling around fruitlessly with various searches for about thirty minutes, I went to Google and used their measurement tool which gave a result over 3100 feet.

          • Google Earth is pretty cool.

          • Eben

            But doesn’t the Google Earth measurement tool measure horizontally? The spillway is sloped downward pretty steeply, which would make it longer.

          • Pfirman

            I factored that in with a little help from Pythagoras.

    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      Wow now that really is cool. Puts my front yard drainage channel construction project to shame, lol!!!

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
  • Apotropaic

    Tioga pass is scheduled to open on Thursday June 29.

    https://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/tioga.htm

    • TBinRC

      Looks like I lost the pool. Sadly going to the sun road still hasn’t opened in Glacier, which is where I am right now. All that wishing for a good snow year bit me in the butt!

    • Wow thanks. I was sure it would be after the 4th

    • I was 9 days off. Lol

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      July 5 was my guess, a week off

    • Tuolumne

      July 3, four days off.

    • AlTahoe

      I picked tomorrow so does that make me the closest? What do I win? Mittens? Shawn white bobble head with feathered bangs?

      • Cap’n

        A one night, all inclusive stay in the shed.

        • AlTahoe

          With or without Doppler glow?

      • Tuolumne

        A genuine melting snowball!

      • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

        Sled ride with Jose?

      • PRCountyNative

        I think I picked Friday. Did you guess a time?

      • Yolo Hoe

        A hat to replace the one you had to eat in acknowledgement of the big April storm!

  • Amy Cohen

    What do you think Placer County should do with the old Tahoe City fire station?

    I’d like to see it turned into a cutting edge digital hub of all things weather, traffic, ems, fire, etc., that everybody shares here. Cap’n, Daniel, and CT Dave Wood being interviewed there, competing with weather channel, etc. Make it something special. Advanced weather equipment on the roof, integration with UC Davis, NASA, etc.

    http://www.sierrasun.com/news/local/placer-county-seeks-ideas-for-old-tahoe-city-fire-station/

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    This is more like what we want. It may be quite hot but dew point temps are sub-zero [just like a santa ana condition].

    EL CENTRO NAS SUNNY 115 -3 1 W17G26 29.67F HX 104

    It was also hot west of the coastal ranges; eagerly waiting for the marine push.

    93/ 70

  • click

    YASF #MartFire
    (Yet Another Scorching Fire)
    Burning near the highway that goes up towards Running Springs. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/acb7d2e8cb6b70103e9f517939256ea11c95e5c56bdc370d34618aceb9f33660.jpg

    • Pfirman

      Welcome back, eh?

      • click

        Lol, yeah I already miss the running rivers and creeks, green field and mountains, and the patches of snow that will hang on until August.
        I do remember some pretty bad fires from growing up there, the rugged terrain pretty much ensures they can scorch thousands of acres before threatening habitation though.

        • Pfirman

          My first trip to Yellowstone I was surprised at so much smoke from so many fires. Obscured the beautiful long views and made me realize California is not alone in its wildfire hell.

        • Thor

          August can be brutal in the G-Valley with super poor air quality…often from fires in ID/WA.

          But for now…green and wet. 67 degrees and numerous showers with brief hail moving thru…

    • click
  • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

    Wow some of you (I forget who, sorry) predicted a late start to the monsoon and that seems to be right. NOAA Tucson says not much is happening even in the next 5-6 days. Is this abnormal at all or just the way she goes this summer?

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Even though the official Arizona monsoon season begins June 15th, it really kicks-in by mid-late July. The average starting date for Phoenix is July 7th. Looking at the latest GFS 18z model run does show signs of a moisture influx beginning July 7th (coincidentally) for SoCal.

      https://www.tripsavvy.com/arizona-monsoon-facts-2683732

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      On the GFS out to 384 hours there isn’t any clear 4 corners high , but there is decent rainfall totals and a moisture influx like @socalalelmontesgv:disqus said around July 7. But one thing is there isn’t even ridging in this area until July 6 when it develops over most of the Lower 48. Keep in mind anything past a week is low confidence and anything past 10 days can be considered fantasyland.

  • RunningSprings6250

    “If the ash gets deep enough, can we go sledding?” Says my 5 year old….

    A little light headed from the smoke but otherwise I think it’ll burn up that dry tall grass down there right quick and without any wind and being a little green/fresh it’ll slow considerably when/if it hits timber.

    I almost guarantee it started from douche bag kids lighting fire works in east highland….

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Did they finally put out the Holcomb fire?

      The one thing I dread about the 4th are d’bags who think launching mortars into the sky in my densely populated neighborhood is fun.

      • RunningSprings6250

        I think it moreso burned itself out as there’s been no smoke at all since day 2.

    • matthew

      This is the weekend that I fear – the hordes arrive with fireworks and their off-highway toys. Pretty much guaranteed at least one fire somewhere in the vicinity, although I am hoping that the fact that there is still a lot of snow melting will mitigate it this year.

  • Christian K.

    Don’t post much on this site, but really enjoy the comments. Just would like to get recommendation on a good, accurate high-low thermometer. The big old cheap Home Depot one I have, I have little faith in.

    • inclinejj

      Welcome. I have a basic thermometer I bought at Ace Hardware. It’s as accurate as my weather station.

    • Bombillo1

      Bienvenido. There are at least a half dozen makes of inexpensive temp/weather stations. If you are reading on these boards you have to get your foot in the pool. Here is a device at $20.00 that would work for you, plus barometric pressure. May your addiction grow..

      https://www.zoro.com/taylor-wireless-inout-thermometer-wbarometer-1733/i/G4017085/

      • thebigweasel

        I glanced at the ad. Looked good, except it’s only good down to -4C. That makes it useless in 95% of the country. Even parts of Florida sometimes hit -4.

    • Christian K.

      Thanks for the suggestions. And yes, when I come across something relevant and interesting, I will be sure to post.

  • molbiol

    This is the pattern that I am waiting for… (500mb anticyclone with an E/W axis centered north of the four corners). Although it is still 9 days away, the operational output has good support from the ensembles (2nd image). This would be the pattern to kick off the 2017 monsoon. I know many here do not like the monsoon with the heat and humidity; but for a desert dweller like myself this is the best time of year for T-storm action…

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5170bb2dbfcab37c7a4e781e77612b66c7b85c37764080490383cb8097871edb.jpg

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2432328c2ebf3e0378aecaf68ae80803ab13dbbb3a5ac3b880481ed5cc86eb16.jpg

    • annette johnson

      We finally “cooled down” to 113F. The 10 degree difference from 123F last week here along the Colorado River makes a huge difference. As much as I love the desert, it is a post like yours that gives me some hope as there hasn’t seemed to be anything on the horizon. Although not looking forward to the humidity (around 6% right now), and like you said, the anticipation of the monsoons with the exciting storms make the heat bearable for now. I’m counting down the days…

      • molbiol

        You are in a prime location for ‘gulf surges’ originating in the sea of cortez. Many times that can set the stage for very vivid lightning displays at night as MCS complexes traverse the area (esp. during transitional periods). That whole area from Barstow/Daggett to east toward the Colorado River was referred to by some as the ‘lightning alley’ during summer months (back in the 90s). It is not uncommon in Lancaster to see lightning from those areas even though the storms are almost 100 miles east of Lancaster. Hopefully you will get some action this summer

    • thebigweasel

      What is that over Baffin Island?

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    In the 70s today. Life is good. Paint is drying.

  • Fairweathercactus

    The earth has been rather friendly with the lack of Earthquakes as of late for So Cal. Been a long time since it has been this quite.

    • Same here in the Bay Area. Knock on wood.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        What about the August, 2014 Napa earthquake that was magnitude 6.0

    • molbiol

      I’ve been thinking the same thing. Back in the late 80s thru the 90s and early 2000s, a major earthquake usually occurred every three to four years. The past 10 years especially since 2010 has been very quiet and that really scares me for a lot of reasons. The population of Socal has grown tremendously since the 90s and its only a matter of time….

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      I think we should worry more about the ARKstorm in the long run, but in the short run we should worry for exactly what you said, it’s been quite and we don’t like that. One question I have is if the San Andreas or some fault some hoe produces near an 8 on the Richter scale, would it trigger the Cascadia Subduction zone to produce its long over due 9.0 earthquake?

      • I wonder what would be worse for CA: an 8.0 rupture in the East Bay along the Calaveras fault ripping up Alameda and CoCo Counties or an ArKStorm.

        • inclinejj

          The Hayward Fault is Dangerous also.

        • Nate

          I think the costs from the flooding in that scenario would far outweigh any earthquake, just because of the sheer area affected. Fortunately, an 8.0 in the East Bay isn’t possible, as there’s not enough fault to rupture for a quake that size. That said, a big quake (~M7.0) on the Hayward/and or Calaveras could be much worse in total damage than a 1906 repeat.

          • Tuolumne

            Even allowing for inflation. There’s just way more development to be damaged.

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          An ARKstorm of similar magnitude to the one of January 1862 has beem estimated that it would cause 725 billion dollars in damage. An ARKstorm hitting in this modern era would be the worst weather tragedy the US has ever experienced.

        • Cap’n

          “One day a real rain will come…”

      • Nate

        I wouldn’t worry about it. Since earthquakes don’t have a “schedule” they can’t be overdue. If anything, there’s more of a chance that the CSZ could trigger the San Andreas, specifically the northern segment. It’s completely possible and there has been research linking the two, but it’s extremely unlikely that the next big San Andreas rupture, which will likely be on the southernmost segment, will trigger the Cascadia Subduction Zone.

      • Admode (Susanville)

        Exactly. Check this out: http://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/archives/2008/apr/scientists-eye-possible-link-between-cascadia-zone-san-andreas-fault

        You reminded me of a different paper I read a while back that showed this very thing. The only major San Andreas earth quake that they didn’t find evidence of being triggered by a cascadian mega thrust was in 1700. I can’t remember if they had a guess as to why.

    • 310weatherguy

      Had two small earth quakes in the past month or so that shock the house for a couple seconds. A good shake to. Up in Piñon Pines/ Frazier Park area, top of the grapevine. Right on top of the San Andreas.

    • thebigweasel

      There’s been an earthquake swarm west of Reno over the past few days.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      It has been relatively quiet in Socal in recent years as far as moderate or stronger earthquakes go. There were quite a few moderate to somewhat strong quakes from the mid-late 1980’s until about 1994 with the Northridge quake being one of the strongest, followed by this quieter period that we have been experiencing. The two strongest quakes that have happened more recently were the Hector Mine quake and the quake on Easter Sunday a few years ago in northern Mexico that I felt when I was in San Diego.

      Please note that I am only talking about southern California here, and that is why I didn’t mention the 1989 Loma Prieta quake above.

      • RunningSprings6250

        Nor the San Simeon / Hearst castle quake in early 2000s!

        • Dan the Weatherman

          I don’t remember that quake for some reason.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Why are summer morning dew point temps often so high in the Imperial Valley/ western Sonoran desert? Is this due to moist air from the Gulf of California migrating north each overnight?

    IMPERIAL AP SUNNY 89 69 51 SE9 29.72S
    EL CENTRO NAS SUNNY 89 66 46 SE8 29.74S
    YUMA AZ SUNNY 89 69 51 SE18 29.75R
    MEXICALI SUNNY 84 70 61 SE7 29.75R

    • DelMarSD

      Probably.

    • Yep.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      It is not a put down on Imperial valley because it also applies to parts of inland San Diego & Riverside counties/ Coachella valley but heat indexes are the worst of any place in California.

    • weathergeek100

      Yeah, that ‘dry heat’ ain’t always dry is it now?!

    • weathergeek100

      Those waters are so warm. There’s always the slight chance of a hurricane maintaining strength if it aims right into the gulf and stays on track parallel to the coasts. But this is rare because the gulf is so narrow and land is so close by. Imagine if the gulf was wider.

      • Can’t be counted out but UL atmospheric steering would have to cooperate a lot more than the SST 🙂

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        I’ve been down to the Gulf shore at San Felipe but it was in April several years ago. The SST were warm even in spring. People who live in the Imperial valley must rely on 24-hour AC esp when nights become so humid.

  • happ [Los Angeles]
    • Cap’n

      I guess all those busts added up.

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      Pretty uniform all around

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Not enough rain

    • mbmattcor (TD 6400′)

      I think there are some 200+% on the west side of Sierra between US 50 and Tioga Pass. That was the sweet spot. Also, I saw a graphic earlier this winter where the SweetWater range NW of Bridgeport had 300% of norm.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      What was so great about this rain year was that even SoCal picked up more rainfall after Feb from AR events.

    • CHeden

      Not only the rain totals were anomalous, but note that the second driest zone in California aside from the desert SE, is far Northern/NE Calif.!
      A prime example of the propensity of orographically enhanced rainfall we had last year. No lows, just a screamin’ jet plowing into/over the hills mostly south of 40N.
      That makes two years in a row with similarly enhanced rainshadowing/orographics effects up here in NorCal.

  • mbmattcor (TD 6400′)

    Who remembers Hurricane Norman ’78? I was 9, but my folks were backpacking in the Sierras and it rained 6 days straight from the remnants. They tried to get home and 395 was washed out in multiple places. I guess some Sierras locations got over 7″ of rain. The references in the wiki page are pretty good. Is this most recent tropical system to make landfall in California as wiki says?
    As a kid, this storm was a tipping point for my interest in wx, along with the ’77-’78, ’82-’83 winters.

      • mbmattcor (TD 6400′)

        That web page says “The system moved inland as an extratropical cyclone, which is a likely explanation for why the maximum rains fell to the left of its track.” but it doesn’t continue to state that it hit the eastern Sierra orographics perfectly with that track, hence the awesome rainfall.

        • “The system moved inland as an extratropical cyclone, which is a likely explanation for why the maximum rains
          fell to the left of its track.”

          Thr article should have mentioned the orographics of the area with the above statement.

  • alanstorm

    The lightning-struck redwood in Granite Bay is now carved, and not too soon as it’s 95° again here.
    Was live this morning on “Mornings on Sacramento” CBS 13 & tomorrow another segment on Chan 10.
    Gave a shout out to WW in the interview “…. I was watching that Apr 13 lightning storm on the Weatherwest blog…”
    Haha- he said the segment will be only 2 minutes so not sure they’ll use it. I was trying to shamelessly plug my website.
    Oh- the funny zig zag is the lightning bolt.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5281152fdeb0b2aa118ddf43fd14fb4ceb7148a884acbcfa98b49458c4bf44a9.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d040a53a92a71f6ab2e9f60ccab4e0369021a4abc3ce043d4080a4320d0940ca.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/149caf48a43c93e425d0599fe70721929abd3f92ef0280873f6823c3c07e83de.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9c40c3644238ff39f11897be7317fd8f0258178e825b32c5bbd8948d9f206c06.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fb244a84bd58ada7d23ef71def2745a6145e6e1b92408585dcca201499564621.jpg

    • AlTahoe

      Well that is amazing. I can’t wait for a pine tree in my yard to fall over so I can have you do something similar.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Damn, that was fast. Beautiful

      • alanstorm

        Yeah, had to haul ass. Used the HUGE saw as much as possible. About 14 hrs total. People wanted “friendly” bears.
        Redwood is wonderful. Like carving butter with a hot knife

        • Admode (Susanville)

          That is awesome. Looks like you run huskys. Just curious if/why you prefer them over stihl. (Sorry, I like saws too:))

          • alanstorm

            I used to run all Stihls, (38 mags) then they stopped making those & started falling apart too easy. (I abuse tools) Switched to Huskys because they’re a bit tougher. But for detailing, I’m now using those tiny $300 disposable Stihl 180’s. They run forever.
            Both brands are the best I imagine
            Like Chevys Vs Fords

          • Admode (Susanville)

            I just know that husky has been putting parts to control emissions amd that has made them comparably more expensive. Thats the main reason i go with stihl. But i have run huskys and no that they are good saws. What is your big saw?

          • alanstorm

            Husky 385 XP- basically a falling saw- bar is something like 3ft!!
            Believe it or not, I use it alot for blocking the bigger carvings, just let it do all the work. I even use the tip quite alot, which is crazy.
            Sure saves time. Without it this carving would have taken an extra day

          • Admode (Susanville)

            Nice! Thanks for sharing!

        • Admode (Susanville)

          And why you’d want a coast redwood in granite bay in the first place is beyond me. Think it’ll sprout?

          • alanstorm

            It was planted in that subdivision in the 70’s.

    • Michelangelo with a chainsaw. Wow! Love the salmon and ‘bolt’, too

      • alanstorm

        Would be nice if peeps wanted something besides bears all the time….

    • Nathan

      lightning – A
      bears – A
      haircut – A+

      • alanstorm

        I had a mullet one time

    • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

      Great work! Concept sketches? Do you use them? If so, can you post the one you drew for this? Tx for sharing.

      • alanstorm

        Haha- no sketches..
        Sharing because it’s weather related. That thunderstorm was crazy. I was followng the radar returns & monitoring this blog live. People were reporting CG lighting in Auburn. I was jelous!

    • inclinejj

      Awesome. I did some work out there on Chris Court years ago.

      • alanstorm

        Tree was on the highest point of that subdivision, so when it got blown apart, it made the TV news.
        Pretty high-end neighborhood around there.
        That whole area between Roseville & GB is getting built up fast

    • Bombillo1

      Do you bleach or stain to get the white mask/arms etc? That is amazing. I wish they had asked for David, with an appropriate fig leaf of course.. Great work. You left handed by any chance?

      • alanstorm

        Redwood has that 2 tone naturally. Cambrian layer is golden.
        I’d rather carve a Mermaid than a David, personally.
        & Thx
        & Nope, RH
        Jimi Hendrix, Kurt Cobain & Paul McCartney are LH

        • Bombillo1

          Very skillful how you preserved the Cambrian to get the muzzles right..

    • CHeden

      The bear’s statue is simply amazing. Given that you did this “by eye” belies the genius involved. Thanks a lot for sharing!
      BTW, do you know Richard Vest? My wife and I have several wonderful works of his. We were first drawn to his whales/dolphin wall sculptures at Nick’s at Rockaway Beach. Then we hooked up serendipitously at the Pacifica Fog Fest where we bought our first sculpture.
      I think I need to add an “alanstorm original” to the collection!

    • Wet Line(San Diego)

      Fantastic work, You are talented. Thanks for sharing.

      • alanstorm

        Tnx. Maybe some monsoon for you in the coming weeks?

        • Wet Line(San Diego)

          All we can do is hope, We need it badly.

  • Fairweathercactus

    The GFS has been showing a large ridge with a lot of moisture spinning around in the long range. We will see if that solution holds on.

  • Nathan
    • Yuck.

    • Bombillo1

      I’m outta here. Just finished the most miserable 3 weeks and now to be chased by another round. Goin to the beach…

      • alanstorm

        Neat

      • PRCountyNative

        The beach was too cold last time. Wind water fog.

        The SST’s got higher, maybe it will be nice beach weather this next time.

    • Yep. At least this one might come with some monsoonal relief in some spots…eventually. Looks like the next post is going to be about another heatwave.

      • Nathan

        Looks shorter, too.

        But still, two 110+ valley heat waves within a month of each other? Unreal.

        Next thing we’ll get a direct hit category 3 hurricane on Seattle

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        Heatwave away from the coast areas? Temperatures still look to be in the 70s and low 80s here on the Penninsula

      • redlands

        When is that gonna happen ???

        • Dan the Weatherman

          I’m not sure. I am really not seeing a heatwave on the 6-10 Day Outlook, as the discussion is indicating the main portion of the ridge to be centered over the Plains states, while a trough is in the eastern Gulf of AK extending into parts of the Pacific NW and British Columbia. This to me would just bring a more typical pattern of heat for early summer standards, or even a bit below normal, while the monsoon pattern may be kept just east of the area due to the the trough over the NW region suppressing the 4 Corners High to the south and east a bit. The monsoon could be a bit closer to the area than I think at this point, though.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      This heat appears to be a full-on West Coast event including the PacificNW as well. Lots of people in Washington/ Oregon want more heat while Californians are horrified by a return of intense ridging.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        Isn’t this just a normal summer pattern coming on in the long range? It usually starts to turn hot around or just after the 4th anyway. A 4 Corners High pattern with a potential monsoon flow with 100’s and 110’s in the deserts, 90’s in the inland valleys, and 70’s and 80’s away from the coast isn’t exactly what I would call a heatwave this time of year. Rather, it is typical early summer heat just before the monsoon flow kicks in. The deserts often see their warmest readings in late June and early July.

        • redlands

          How is a heatwave defined ?? Its normal for example Redlands, Ca to get up to 100 or higher. — But 115-120 for a few days would be record breaking !!!!! Thoughts

          • Dan the Weatherman

            In most areas of the country, a heatwave is defined as 3 or more consecutive days of over 90 degree temps. Obviously the criteria is different here in the Socal inland valleys and the desert regions, because the normal highs reach well into the 90’s and 100’s for days and weeks on end in the summer. I don’t know the temperature limit for the desert or inland valleys in which it is considered a heatwave as opposed to normal summer heat.

    • molbiol

      Sorry, I know people on this board hate the heat but the pattern on the 18Z GFS is classic monsoon. Today’s run actually brings several inverted shortwaves into Socal which could make for some interesting weather esp. deserts and mtns
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9368a20a5059f8405308c6a44f747f8b0d4b1cadcc1bc377c442b8bbe70c01b3.jpg

      • Nathan

        Searingly heat plus unbelievable amounts of spring underbrush growth followed by monsoon lightning = thanks but no thanks.

    • tomocean

      I’m heading to the arctic. Enjoy the heat!

      • Tuolumne

        With the arctic warming these days, your only safe bet is Mars.

        • tomocean

          If it’s 110 there, I’ll eat your shoes, with a nice bottle of wine.

          • Tuolumne

            It’ll be way over 110….

            Kelvin!

          • tomocean

            Touche. I’m sticking to wonky American measuring standards. Nothing like the illogical Fahrenheit scale!

          • alanstorm

            “…with some fava beans & a nice chianti….”

    • Dan the Weatherman

      Looks like a typical July pattern to me with 110+ in the desert, near 120 in the Colorado River area, and 100’s in the San Joaquin Valley before the monsoon kicks in.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Off topic, but a mini tornado outbreak has occurred in Iowa and WI and there was PDS tornado warning that just ended which was large and extremely dangerous tornado and was reported by law enforcement and storm chasers that it went through Prariesburg Iowa.

  • Admode (Susanville)
    • Not many know that NASA is not under a cabinet office. NOAA is under the department of Commerce.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Trump’s a faggot

    • Bombillo1

      As I read it NOAA gets a slight increase in budget. NSF gets bout a 2% decrease but with “research” being funded at 2017 levels. Am I mis-reading this? In any case, not a resounding support of science but certainly not giving it the Braveheart treatment either…

      • Yes–this would represent a large cut to NOAA, which would likely be targeted primarily at climate/weather activities.

        • Bombillo1

          Sorry, I see it was NASA that got a slight increase.

          “National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – The legislation contains $4.97 billion for NOAA, which is $710 million below the enacted level. Funding is targeted to important priorities such as the National Weather Service, fisheries management, weather research, and ocean exploration while reducing funds for lower priority activities.”

          Looks like about a14% haircut. Rugged. NWS and WX research gets some kind of priority. I would like to see what are the allocations and what exactly was getting scuttled…

  • Phil(ontario)

    Only 93 here today After 104 yesterday. Marks the first time since june 13 it hasn’t been 95+

    • redlands

      Redlands, Ca – – Southern Ca ended its 100 AND ABOVE streak today 6/28/17 – with 13 days in a row 100 AND ABOVE with a still warm 98 today 6/28/17

      • Dan the Weatherman

        Today was really nice after all the hot weather we have had. I don’t think it got warmer than the low 80’s here in Orange.

  • Dan the Weatherman

    I have been smelling smoke here in Orange for about the last 1 1/2 – 2 hours and I believe it is from the brush fire on Camp Pendleton that broke out earlier this evening. The flow is onshore with the marine layer coming in, which usually means that the flow is southerly and/or southeasterly, which would explain the smoke moving in this direction.

  • Fairweathercactus
    • Bombillo1

      I’ve been off the ranch a few days, did the planet start spinning the other way?

      • You never noticed? It reversed yesterday.

      • Yolo Hoe

        A new oscillation

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        See what happens when you wander off the reservation?! Get back here and everything will return to normal Bombillo.

        : ^ )

    • molbiol

      Uh, that is actually normal this time of year as the subtropical high moves north. That same steering flow is why most EPAC hurricanes miss California and move out to sea.
      BTW: what version of windows is that? You should make sure its patched as there are some nasty malware programs making rounds

      • Dan the Weatherman

        This is also the same reason why we get monsoonal flow in the summer months, and disturbances known as easterly waves can enhance convection west of the mountains in Socal if the steering flow is just right and the 4 Corners High is located just in the right place.

        • molbiol

          Yup. I actually posted below a couple of times on that very issue. Also, the latest 0Z GFS now has a 600+DM anomaly over northern Utah by the weekend following the 4th. If that materializes things could be very interesting i.e lots of Heat, Humidity, and Convection

    • Subtropical easterlies are pretty common this time of year.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I don’t think that is atypical for this time of year. The flow patterns tend to be weak this time of year with the jet far to the north. Eastern Pacific tropical waves generally move east to west or northwest, unless they are picked up by an abnormally deep trough.

  • Charlie B

    For the past year (July 2016-June 2017), the town formerly known as Barrow, Alaska, which is the farthest point north in Alaska and is right on the Arctic Ocean, has averaged 6.3 degrees above “normal.” That is actually .5 degrees cooler than 2015-2016. Fairbanks, which is in the interior, is right at historical average for 2016-17, which is a whopping 4.5 degrees cooler than 2015-16. Much of Alaska’s interior had a pretty cold (and snowy) winter, compared to the north coast, which was much less cold than normal (even though the ocean was obviously ice covered, since it was still well below freezing). I’m not sure what this all means, if anything.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Does anybody know how much snow is left at 9,000 near the Sawtooth Range which is close to Sonora Pass and when it is suppose to melt. I’m going backpacking there on August 10th and don’t want to be met by swarms of mosquitos and ones just hatching.

    • Ted

      I have a trip from Kennedy Meadows Pack Station to Tuolumne Meadows around that same time, and I am wondering the same. I was keeping up to date with the CDEC snow sensors until 2 days ago. CDEC website appears to be down, at least for me. The last data I saw was for the Slide Canyon snow sensor and it read approximately 43 inches of snow depth (as of midday Tuesday).

    • Andrew (Berkeley)

      Sawtooth Ridge in the Hoover wilderness? There was definitely still some snow left at 9000′ on Sonora Pass as of last weekend, maybe a couple feet.

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      August is basically July as far as peak mosquito hatch this year. I would prepare for lots of snow if you’re doing any cross country passes over that range. I did a loop out of Twin Lakes during August of 2014 and had to use micro spikes a few times…

  • Nate
    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      Damn what an achievement…the CalTrans dudes deserve some props. Those 50ft+ deep snowfields that hung over the road were no joke…

  • Nathan

    FWIW Euro is not on board with next week’s heat wave, at least thru the 9th.

    • Rainmaker (San Jose)

      isn’t 11 days out considered fantasy land or does that only apply to good things like storms and monsoon rain?

      • Nathan

        I’d say 12+ days is true fantasyland. This year has been a lot more consistent with events in the 8-12 day range. And given that we just had a pattern similar to the one forecast (massive ridge in PacNW, also forecast 10+ days out) with no huge changes in SST or daylight hours, I’m more inclined to trust it.

        However the previous forecast had agreement between the two models. I can’t see Euro beyond 10 days, so maybe it’s just a little later than GFS, but right now Euro doesn’t predict a massive PacNW ridge in the 8-10 day range as the GFS does.

        • I think a ten day ensemble has some merit when looking at height anomalies. Both models are in fairly good agreement (I don’t have 12Z ECMWF yet) so I’m basing on 00Z for both EPS and GEFS. Whichever model pins the ridge on the donkey will ‘win’

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      *Heatwave away from the coastal areas

    • alanstorm

      Seems like with heatwaves, the forecasts start out with mid 90’s 5-10 days out, then bump them to the 100’s as we approach

      • Nathan

        check out latest gfs. try 110’s.

  • Charlie B

    Tioga Pass is now open. This marks the third latest opening of the pass since 1980, tying 1983. The only later dates were June 30 in 1995 and July 1, 1998. Whoever picked June 29 in the contest is the winner! If no one picked that date then by default I win.

    • PRCountyNative
      • PRCountyNative
        • If somehow this was a Jeopardy question Alex would have disqualified you for using PDST.

          “During our break our judges have checked your answer PRCountyNative and the acronym “PDST” is no longer used. We would have accepted “PDT” or “15UTC” or “15Z”. I’m sorry but we’re going to have to deduct $2,000 from your total. hehe

          Hey you are the man…Craig will pony up for your grand prize. Nice job!!!

          • PRCountyNative

            Thanks!

      • Bombillo1

        I think we have a weener here…

        • PRCountyNative

          I prefer Hot Dog

      • Charlie B

        We humbly salute you! You get bragging rights and also, of course, a “Where the Hell is Rag Dump” T shirt, generously donated by our friend Howard Goodman.
        Seriously, good job. Now, when will it close this fall, Carnac?

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          I’ll be the first to put my guess in for the closing date. Prediction: November 11

        • Bombillo1

          Screw this, we’re wasting talent here. Where’s AAPL going to be in November?

          • Charlie B

            In 1976, Ronald Wayne helped Jobs and Wozniak form Apple, and even drew its first logo. He also prepared the first business agreement. For his troubles he was given a 10% stake in the company. A few weeks later he sold back his stake for $800, fearing that creditors could get his personal assets if the venture failed. He did keep the original business agreement but sold it in the early 1990’s for $500. (The agreement subsequently fetched $1.5m at auction.) He lives in Pahrump and says he has few regrets. I do not believe him.

          • Bombillo1

            Anyone that voluntarily selects Pahrump for domicile is by definition a 5150 candidate

          • matthew

            If you live in Pahrump, you have regrets. Period.

          • PRCountyNative

            That’s funny! I thought AAPL was some weather phenom – you know – the mid latitude AAPL?

            Here’s another prediction: If you invest in the stock market you will experience great anxiety and stress and discomfort, and this will bleed into the rest of your life.

            One more: Legal weed will become the biggest thing in CA since…ever! First in October then after Jan 1, it will be everything and everyone and everywhere. In more ways than anyone imagines.

          • PRCountyNative

            I could use a t-shirt or two.

    • matthew

      Damn. I had the 30th.

  • Multiple fires on Mount Hamilton per scanner.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      If I heard correctly 4 fires in total.

      • I heard that as well.

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          So hazy can’t even see anything that way

        • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

          Sounds like lots of resources being thrown at it from both Santa Clara County and Cal Fire.

      • #RanchFire

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Fires down here also with smoke from Camp Pendleton/ San Clemente all the way up in LA

      • mattzweck

        theirs another fire burning in Malibu area. too now

    • Nathan

      sigh. time to add the CalFire gmap back to the favorites tab.

      • PRCountyNative

        I just kept the fire links over the winter. A lot of cool sites.

  • happ [Los Angeles]
  • mattzweck
  • Cap’n

    Great pictures of Tioga Pass opening today. On another note, I just registered for the Dwight Crum 2 mile pier to pier swim in So Cal. I’ve got 5 weeks to train and try to squeeze myself into a bikini again. Getting nervous about all those shark sightings…

    Hoping to hike Baldy from the Village if any WWers are interested. Where the heck has Dallas gone? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c097f29347323e762a4426f6f73e5c7bf3557a05a7d81f5937f9f4a4c5e94d1b.png

  • Cap’n
    • Nathan

      float tubing anyone?

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    That small low pressure just off the coast of Southern Alaska, (sucking in all that wind towards it) I have no idea what that is called, but it’s huge and looks cool!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5f6c191a8eb0bb1917ab3c2ff3ea19a273ccd76bf8757b76c76569991ca77bb0.png

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    This is one of the more amazing video captures of lightning making the rounds on Twitter. Check out the sidewalk in the lower-left corner about 3 seconds into the video. Do you see it?

    https://twitter.com/BertWeather/status/880253979833270273

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      I’ve never seen that in such close proximity… Incredible example of a leader. & just goes to show why it is so dangerous!

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        That was definitely some serious Ground-to-Cloud charge going on. I think the photographer is lucky that the leader on that sidewalk wasn’t the one that made the “connection” to the Cloud. :-O

  • matthew

    Question for the Reno/Tahoe gang : Anyone been over Mt Rose Highway lately? I am thinking about taking the dogs for a hike up Rose tomorrow. I expect to see snow on the face as you approach Galena Creek, but I was wondering if the trailhead is accessible and what it looks like beyond Galena Creek. Last time I drove over the summit was in mid-April and there was still about 15′ at the trailhead.

    • matthew
      • Bombillo1

        Those ceramic quails are very popular now.

        • matthew

          Hmmm….you know I do have a large tree stump in the yard…Alan?

          • Bombillo1

            Trick question: the Ca state bird is not the bird you have photographed, why not?

    • inclinejj

      Post a couple photos. I was in Tahoe in early June but went to Costco in Carson Cuty.

    • Cap’n

      Drove over the pass two weeks ago, there were multiple plows clearing and working on that parking lot at the trailhead, full court press. I’d imagine with these past two weeks of sun and heat there has been a lot of melt, but it’s hard to imagine making it too far up that trail? I’m anxious to hear your report if you head up. I’m thinking of going for Castle in the next couple weekends, Lola last Sunday still needs several weeks.

      • matthew

        Uggg…if they were plowing the lot two weeks ago then there is little chance of making it very far. Guess I will save myself the drive and try in a few weeks. Thanks for the info.

  • inclinejj

    59.5 for the high in Pacifica today. My brother mentioned it cooled down to only 110 in Palm Springs today.

    • Admode (Susanville)

      Lucky!

    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      It’s been super nice in orinda this week. 70-75 for highs, 50,s for lows with nice sea breeze each evening and morning fog.

      The latest forecast calls for more of the same next week and beyond.

      After that heat wave I welcome another several weeks of 70’s!!

      Eventually I hope we get some more heat… I’m sure we will.

  • 00z GFS advertising a rather prolonged period of monsoonal moisture, along with some shots of energy rotating around the four corners high starting next wednesday. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8ba7ab6eb75a5e3d4cd40deca1ffa312a344d21d97551e804629aca1f840ad12.gif

  • Thunderstorm

    So who will be the first to have measurable precipitation in July? Probably from drizzle in the coastal mountains.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    With the pause in interesting weather, I thought I’d share a link from the NWS Monterey office regarding what happened during a particularly active January, ’17 period (Storm one January 18, Storm two January 19-20 and Storm three January 22-23.)

    Twas a winter not to be forgotten…

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mtr/stormSummary/RainSnowSurf_1_21_17/Tstorms_Surf_1_21_2017.php

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)
  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Interesting note from Steve Paulson this morning.
    https://twitter.com/spaulsonktvu/status/880748742105645056

    • Bombillo1

      2017-18 winter is going to be bigger than 16-17. We did warm SSTs in 13,14,15 and got air sandwiches.

      • What deli you going to this year?

        • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

          I hear the air sandwich is fantastic for a diet but not great if you’re into protein.

          • gray whale

            Cut Down On Belly Fat Every Day With This One Weird Trick

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Drove into Reno early this morning to do the pre-holiday shopping. Lots of tourist traffic out early. Easy to tell when they drive 80+ mph in areas the CHP/NHP love to setup like Ponch and John. The area around Boca was covered in (Karl the) fog. Reminded me of a summer drive across The GGB. Nice thing so far this summer is the temps drop over night so it’s easier to cool the house down. Last few years the overnight lows had been pretty high for the sierra’s.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Mainly 60’s here but a few minimums in the 70’s earlier in the week. Dew points are lower now but should return to 60’s per GFS.

    • Cap’n

      You’re visiting at a good time, there were a few brutal nights where it was tough to sleep during the heat wave last week, couldn’t get the cabin cooled down. This week it was chilly in the mornings, definitely like that better.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        The other thing that stuck out, the Truckee is still flowing high as expected but it’s running really brown/dirty. A lot of debris flowing into the river.

        • Cap’n

          Driving by River Ranch today that thing is still raging good. Not as high as a month ago but hard to imagine floating it. We just played some basketball with Placer County Sheriff here in KB (tough job, I know) but I forgot to ask them what the final say is regarding that section. I didn’t see anyone setting up operations today so I’m assuming no legal floating this 4th.

          • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

            I think someone would be taking their life in their hands trying to raft/float on it currently. It’s not the leisurely float that has made the river famous. I was impressed how fast it was running around Floriston.

          • Cap’n

            I did hear about how brown it is lower. Think it’s the outflow from the reservoirs? I took my dog swimming in Prosser yesterday man it is fuller than I’ve seen it in quite sometime.

          • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

            I was trying to see if there was any sort of landslide or such putting the brown into the water. You could be correct it’s from Boca or Stampede. I am sure your wife has noticed it, very evident in the evening when you drive back from Reno.

          • Cap’n

            Not sure you’ve been over to the lake Rob, but the lack of beach due to the high water levels is going to really squeeze the masses into tiny areas.

          • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

            Funny you say that, I decided to leave my boat in storage this week. I saw the owner Weds and he asked if i wanted to take it out and said “no thanks.” He laughed and noted what a madhouse it had been and we both said this weekend is going to be crazy. He compared the crowds getting their boats (Fixing their boats) over the last 7 days to everyday basically being the Friday before the 4th.

          • gray whale

            Apparently between River Ranch and downtown there are bridges that can’t be squeezed under at much over 1,000 cfs, and DreamFlows has it at 1,240 right now. Floating swiftly and irreversibly into a low bridge would be hella unfun.

          • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

            North Tahoe Fire/Squaw Valley just received a call for a river rescue in the Truckee river, apparently someone didn’t notice how high (and cold) the water was running. I cannot even guess how many river rescues they may be getting calls for over the next 5 days. I believe Reno Fire had 2-3 in the span of a few hours last weekend.

          • Tuolumne

            Long ago I went tubing in the Boise River in June after a very heavy winter (1981/82). The water was extremely cold and I got mild hypothermia. Fortunately I ended up OK. Live (in this case) and learn.

    • Nathan

      Any idea how late the rafting season will go?

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        I know they had hoped to open in early July but looking at the flows I don’t think it will be this week. As Cap’n noted below it’s running high from Tahoe City. I believe they expect Tahoe to continue to fill until mid/late July. The other issue is most of the tourist and their money tend to leave the 2nd or 3rd week of August so it becomes hard for a rafting company to operate. If you’re going on your own I’d think into Sept wouldn’t be out of the question.

  • Nathan

    Lots of mid level haze here in SD. Maybe from San Berdoo and Pendleton fires?

  • Cap’n
  • molbiol
    • Idaho Native

      I can’t even fathom….

    • Bombillo1

      Several recent articles about which country will win the race to uninhabitable due to climate change. UAE was thought to be the likely winner but Iran is making a last minute surge. Throw in governance by Mullahs and they are across the finish line already. A perfectly wonderful place to be from.

      • molbiol

        What I am about to say is controversial, but most countries whose governance is based on religion especially Islam, are pretty fucked up. That article says that large portions of the middle east will be uninhabitable by the 22nd century creating a massive humanitarian crisis. That plus all the geopolitical instability could result in another global conflict with disasterous results. I’ll be dead by then though thankfully

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

    What a wet and wild Winter this year was! 6 consecutive months of above average precipitation in Orcutt, CA. I hope next winter is just as wet again!

    Month | Act | Avg | % of AVG
    Sept: 0.00″ | 0.16″ | 0%
    Oct: 1.39″ | 0.58″ | 240%
    Nov: 1.40″ | 1.36″ | 103%
    Dec: 2.84″ | 2.15″ | 132%
    Jan: 7.00″ | 2.64″ | 265%
    Feb: 6.69″ | 2.75″ | 243%
    Mar: 1.17″ | 2.43″ | 48%
    April: 1.15″ | 1.11″ | 104%
    May: 0.39″ | 0.26″ | 150%
    June 0.00″ | 0.04″ | 0%
    Total: 22.03″ | 13.48″ | 163%

  • flyboy45

    Weak sunset virga over Flagstaff AZ last week, Signs that the SW monsoon is getting organized are evident. Moisture from back door cold fronts has been invading Eastern NM from the Gulf of Mexico for the last ten days but the import has stopped at the AZ /NM border.
    A more sustained push as far as the CA deserts from East to West and seeping North from Mexico is being trumpeted by both ABQ, FLG and TUS AFDs as the 4-corners High assumes a more classic position by Next weekend.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7a3bba107a003de38b32318ec687fc4e42bb3885fb4e46588af9f17f76f43de5.jpg

    • annette johnson

      Nice pic, I love Flagstaff! Good news on the upcoming moisture push. The town of Mayer (about 90 miles SE of Flag) was evacuated a couple days ago due to a fire. 25,000 acres burned, but as of last night they had 45% containment. Today is the 4 year anniversary of the tragic Yarnell fire where 19 firefighters lost their lives so I’m glad they are getting a handle on it.

    • Charlie B

      As s weather lover, I wish I had picked Flsgstaff years ago. Snow in winter and thunderstorms in summer. Never too hot. Skiing nearby. Tell me that I am wrong. (Ok, in 1967 I think the got 7′ of snow in a week but that was an anomaly.)

      • alanstorm

        If it were possible, I’d live in Sedona. Lightning storms out there are surreal

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    2016-2017 Record breaking rainfall amounts as of March 5,
    Location: San Carlos California
    Elevation: 141 feet
    Located on eastern side of 200 foot hill

    October
    October 2016 Total rainfall: 4.11
    Most rainfall in one day: October 16, 1.21 inches of rain
    Days with rain (.01 or more): 11 days, Oct 14-18, 25, 27-31
    Days of substantial rainfall .4 or more: 14-16, 27-28, 30

    November
    November 2016 Total Rainfall: 1.72
    Most rainfall in one day: November 26, .5 inches of rain
    Days with rainfall: 10, Nov 1-2, 11, 14, 19-20, 23-24, 26-27

    December
    December Total rainfall: 4.49
    Most rainfall in one day: 1.37 inches, December 15
    Days with rainfall: 9, Dec 1, 7-10, 14-15, 23-24
    Days with substantial rainfall: 5
    Days with significant rainfall (an inch or greater): 2, Dec 10, 1.1 inches of rain, December 15, 1.37 inches of rain

    January
    January Total rainfall: 13.58
    Most rainfall in one day: 2.66 inches, January 10
    Days with rainfall: 18, Jan 1-4, 7-13, 16, 18-23
    Days with substantial rainfall: 8, Jan 3-4, 7-8, 10, 18, 20, 22, 24
    Days with significant rainfall ( inch more): 6, Jan 8, 10, 18, 20, 22

    February
    February Total rainfall: 10.27
    Most rainfall in one day: 2.42
    Days with rainfall: 19, February 1-10, 16-22, 26-27
    Days with substantial rainfall: 10, Feb 4, 6-10, 16-17, 20-21
    Days with significant rainfall 5, Feb 8, 10, 17, 20-21
    March
    March Total Rainfall: 3.55
    Most rainfall in one day: .74 rainfall
    Days with rainfall: 6, March 4-6, 20-22
    Days with substantial rainfall: 4, March 4-5, 21-22
    April
    April Total Rainfall: 3.22 inches
    Most rainfall in one day: 1.15 inches
    Days with rainfall: 9 days, April 6-8, 12-13, 16-18, 20
    Days with significant rainfall: 1, April 6
    Days with substantial rainfall: 3, April 6-7, 20
    May
    May Total Rainfall: .10
    Days with rainfall: 2, (don’t know what days)
    June
    June Total Rainfall: .10
    Days with rainfall: 1, June 8th

    Total Rainy Season Rainfall: 40.56 inches ( 203% percent of normal)
    Days of rainfall (.01 or more): 85 ( average is 60)

    • Charlie B

      Excellent summary. Did you anticipate this?

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        Hell no, lmao it was a dream to reach 40 inches, I was so dissapointed after the let down of the Super El Niño. I would have never thought in a million years that this would be the year it was, we get this type of precipitation in my area once every 20 years maybe more. I have now came to the consensus of Weak La Niña> Strong El Niño.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Hmm will the Sierra see some moisture come 4th of July?!?!?!
    https://twitter.com/RobMayeda/status/880920006871007233

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

    The Monsoonal Moisture is now going to start impacting the Southwest and California next week.

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1498844320

  • Charlie B

    Let’s get more July 1- June 30 stats. Reno received 15.06 officially, the most ever. That is about 200% of normal. Graeagle is tough to assess since my little deck weather station was crushed by snow ice rain snow rain ice etc. in January. I estimate 75″ of rain and 120″ of snow. Epic.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    June 2017 Data

    Aver Max: 84.4/ Norm: 82
    Aver Min: 63.1/ Norm: 61
    Mean: 73.7

    Hi/Lo Max: 98/ 69
    Hi/Lo Min: 75/ 56

    HDD: 0
    CDD: 263

    Rain: 0.00
    Rain Year [jul-jun]: 20.36
    Days: 0

  • alanstorm

    Friggin BATTLE OF BRITAIN out here with me & a Bug Zapper VS the Mosquitos.
    Except I’m wielding a SPITFIRE.
    Relentless. Worst I’ve seen with this 100″ rainy season https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/02a94cca763411f73d3a4e2a291f3548703b90a2622f0b3f1ac625f7f1249e4f.jpg

    • Bombillo1

      Get out of Dunkirk..

      • alanstorm

        I’ve had it, mate. Give my best to the wife & to hell with Jerry!

    • Tuolumne

      You have a Spitfire and they have V-2s. No contest. Just accept that you’re a huge blood donor.

      • alanstorm

        That’s true.?

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    There were predictions that June would be a cooler than normal month due to all the rainfall during winter. 2011 ended with nearly 33 inches and was wet in March [over 5″] unlike this past dry/ warm spring. La Nina conditions allowed for a cool June [mean: 68.5] in 2011. This year June was relatively cool/ negative departures up until 6/14 and then turned quite warm for 10 days.

    July 2016 was quite uncomfortable [mean: 78.2] but since 2010 most July means have been below average [including 2015]. So we could go cool again but LR looks hot and humid for a while starting next week.

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    what is this and where the hell did this come from. Edit: July 6 timeframe
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/606d8a6e55943f265443de7d34ff64c5434b14eef9ee56835ecf680669541ca4.png

  • Fairweathercactus

    That is a new and interesting solution to say the least for July. Highly unlikely but it is something to take note of. Not to far off as well. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4e703c13e871b066c9cc3b27f7f78600cca6e6d36b00c097609299453e11947b.gif

  • Nathan


    ^Oroville drone flyover update.

    First 1:06 seconds feel like:

  • redlands

    REDLANDS, CA – SOUTHERN CA 2016-2017 RAINFALL SUMMARY
    —————————————————————————————————–
    July – 2016 – 0.00
    Aug – 2016 – 0.00
    Sep – 2016 – 0.04
    Oct – 2016 – 0.80
    Nov – 2016 – 1.46
    Dec – 2016 – 4.13 — 2nd Wettest – Wettest 2011 with 10.46
    Jan – 2017 – 5.80 — 5th Wettest – Wettest 1993 with 11.70
    Feb – 2017 – 2.69 – Monthly Average is 2.69 – Records 1981-2017
    Mar – 2017 – 0.14 – Monthly Average is 1.87
    Apr – 2017 – 0.00 – Monthly Average is 0.82
    May – 2017 – 0.36 – Monthly Average is 0.31
    Jun – 2017 – 0.00 – Monthly Average is 0.09
    —————————————————————————
    Total 15.42 — (( Yearly average 1981-2017 is 12.23 ))
    ——————————————————————————————
    WETTEST YEARS
    1) 29.05 – 1992-93
    2) 24.48 – 1982-83
    3) 24.21 – 2004-05
    4) 22.34 – 1997-98
    5) 19.29 – 2010-11
    6) 17.13 – 1994-95
    7) 16.29 – 2002-03
    8) 15.64 – 1981-82
    9) 15.42 – 2016-17
    10) 15.28 – 1991-92
    11) 14.77 – 1990-91
    ————————————————————————————
    2010-11 19.29 — LAST GOOD RAIN SEASON
    2011-12 7.15 rainwise
    2012-13 8.67
    2013-14 5.98
    2014-15 8.52
    2015-16 11.22
    2016-17 15.42
    —————————————————————————–
    At my station in Redlands, Ca we barely made it into the top 10 wettest years – when we got 0.36 in May 2017. Was a disappointing season – rainwise. – when comparing it to other California cities who got record-breaking rain season. Redlands, Ca is proof that not all cities received a killer season. It started off pretty good in November with 1.46, Dec with 4.13 and January with 5.80 but basically flopped out – aka dried up in February , March ,April ,May and June. Yes this years rainfall increased – however should of ended with more rainfall. Makes you wonder what next rain season will be like — thinking it will be drier.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      It seems that we have had a lot of rainy seasons turn much drier just before March or early March in recent years. I wonder if and/or when we will have years with wetter Marches and Aprils like we have had in the past.

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        San Diego had a great May.

        • redlands

          What did they receive — rainwise for May 2017

          • happ [Los Angeles]

            They recorded positive departures for rainfall that only San Diego gets in cooperation with San Clemente island creating lift.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          After a very dry March and April, we did get a decent storm in early May that brought fairly good totals in Orange County and more substantial totals in San Diego County.

      • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

        April was above average in my aeea though, March was quite dry.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Thanks for the thorough report. My rain total was 20.36 that included a wet Dec [4.92] & Jan [8.67]. It stopped over-performing in mid-Feb [4.47] & only light amounts of rainfall in March [0.37], April [0.03], May [0.26]. San Diego county did much better than LA late in spring.

      • redlands

        Redlands really missed out starting in February 2017 – with only 2.69. Would of been happy with ending the season at 20.00 – which would of been in the top 5 wettest at my station

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          What was your Nov data? 1.14 here

          • redlands

            Its posted above — I got 1.46 in November 2016 — with you getting 1.14 — Your station is in Los Angeles, Ca —- I started consistently in August of 1981 – till now keeping temp/rain records. What kind of weather station do u got

          • redlands

            You have stats for the 1992-93 season or 2004-05 rain season ???

      • redlands

        How long do your records go to — those rain stats from your own station ???. Comparing your stats to my station — appears Redlands season basically ended in January

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          23 years in this home but have lived down the road and once in the canyon [all within 1 mile] Temp data to 1980. Average rainfall is around 18″ due to orographic lift

    • redlands

      Northern Calif people — do any of my top 5 rain seasons compare to your 5 wettest ????

    • alanstorm

      9th place isn’t bad considering where the state has been the last few years. Dec & Jan kicked ass- big precipitation months up here too

      • redlands

        Where are you from Alan ???? You have any rain stats ???

        • alanstorm

          Yep. Wrote them on Sharpie on the porch wall last 3 years.
          I’m in interior Mendocino County in the mtns near Willits.
          We average around 60″, but 2013-14 was only “17!!!
          This season I measured 101″, which was a record for nearby spots.
          Hallelujah!!
          This year went:
          Oct- 13.6
          Nov-7.6
          Dec- 14.6
          Jan- 27.3 (!!!)
          Feb- 21.7
          Mar- 7.3
          Apr- 8.3 (!!!)
          May- 1.3”

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Nice job Redlands, you always have the best thorough data on here IMO. Wish you could receive more of course.

  • Fairweathercactus

    The gfs is just wild even showing storms for the beaches and valley.

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

    June was 1 degree above average overall at the Santa Maria Airport. The
    hottest maximum temperature was 85F, and the lowest minimum temperature
    was 45F.

    http://www.city-data.com/forum/attachments/weather/186820d1498917230-june-2017-summary-june2017summary.png

  • Yolo Hoe

    Far southwest Davis ended June with 0.84″
    and the season with 36.07″ — average is 19.59″ and last season we ended with 16.58″ — boy did we ever need it this past year, and thankfully we got it!

    All that rainfall aside, fire season is here — saw a frightening plume yesterday west of Davis on bike ride — by the time I got there, the very good firefighting folks from Woodland, Davis, West Sacramento and 2 other locations had snuffed it out. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c04b89184fde06b09a8eab2ce8c8c3a3073f03c42e894f3431325e426da4669b.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bca3490c6b29867b6719c35ea50fb2febf87c5a43ea1a38df77abb22e097f5e7.jpg

    Flew into SFO from the north on Thursday — instead of Shasta to the west, I saw these peaks to the east — still trying to figure out which ones they are https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6600a77c484044fa4606a6f468868e65960e06c0628a439e92864ef7c25f9663.jpg

    Also nice and welcome view of a full Clear Lake and eye candy over SF https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e7b24efe3379a7ca5fc74acaf82fa4b9163ebee5b38f68f08f7aa21658e72e0e.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6fae696fbfdc9e35f4b5f44642b1b9ef9ba36b477cda94696f42aa062efec0f1.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b385714bb85cdfff2046ad4e25680d386740b699f0c2568aa8c4626280479559.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/742829ed06a49c65581831fc30a382e25b0c70cecb606d64a983c92a157d85ae.jpg

    • Tuolumne

      Mountains: Lower left is Burney Mountain, middle is Crater Peak in the Thousand Lakes Wilderness NW of Lassen Volcanic National Park, and the distant peaks are Lassen Peak (tallest) on the left and Brokeoff Mtn. on the right.

      Lake in last photo is Lake Berryessa which is probably what you meant.

      • Yolo Hoe

        Thanks for those ID’s!

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Marine layer has been strong every morning and day since the end of the heatwave. Daytime highs have ranged from 73-79, which is below the average of 81 degrees and we’ll make for a below average June (some how). And now it is misting at 56 degrees at 8:30 on the first day of July. Now I am Tahoe bound!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/83c1f80b9b3bc8d7b6123b996be211038dded54acb2cd4b83b3d8ffea9c3bee5.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6952781b1e38959ba9714c584173e9f116475aaf2f56d8c6d98aeb8331938120.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7f5e8dc2e457dd5c6e84efb3ad7570b765a1ac422952bb099fbe20843f987e6c.jpg

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Beautiful start to the morning in Truckee some high clouds above on an early walk. Had to post the WW daily required dog picture. Somewhere down there is Casa de Cap’n. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9a8075b8a6d00f838b937800737797fac1a02169984d244e6b7cca52f2a5e083.jpg

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      What’s the highest point in elevation in this picture? If you can give an idea. Still amazed at some of the drifts on those peaks.

      • Cap’n

        Anderson Peak is just above 8,600 ft, Tinker Knob which is just south of it is 8,900 but not pictured. Everything else in the shot is in the low to mid 8K range.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Wow, I was expecting higher numbers lol. Real neat & thanks Cap’n.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        I believe Cap’n noted but basically across the water is Sugar Bowl.

      • matthew

        I was hiking yesterday at around 8K’. There is probably 50% coverage at that elevation, with depths up to 2-3 feet. I was scouting out another hike along the PCT and decided that I would not even try it for at least another 2 weeks.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Thanks for the general bearing, I appreciate the response. Just trying to get a good idea of where the snow is still doing well up there. Any guess from your POV of how much longer those areas will stay white?

    • Cap’n

      If you zoom in you can see me sun bathing on the porch.

      • matthew

        Can’t un-see that.

        • Cap’n

          Hey I’m wearing a one piece, I do respect the neighbors.

  • DelMarSD
    • redlands

      Do you know how much snow they received this 2016-17 — 10-20 feet ??? anyone know

      • DelMarSD

        Well I’d guess over 300 inches, possibly much more.

        • redlands

          your saying 20-30 feet of snow ???

          • weathergeek100

            Probably. A lot of the snow melts over time due to rain or just solar exposure. A 6′ snow pack doesn’t mean that 6′ fell for the season.

          • redlands

            So how much could there be at certain times ?? — if at 5-6000 if they predict 2-3 ft of snow — would at 9-11,000 feet there would be 3-5ft . Whats the longest up in the southern mountains does snow last — june-july

      • palmsprings

        I do know that the peak snowpack for Mt. San Jacinto at about 9400′ elevation was 72″ back in early March.

        • redlands

          So for that mountain location — only 6 feet for the season

  • DelMarSD

    Very interested in how the upcoming “monsoon moisture influx” will play out. Last year, models predicted many monsoonal flow periods, but they didn’t really materialize. Or, there was one day of thunderstorms in the mountains, and then the moisture was shunted east. There was lots of dry air. It will be interesting to see if the upcoming period is any different. Latest GFS runs are certainty interesting.

  • palmsprings

    Below is the precipitation data for Palm Springs Airport. Well above the 4.65″ average but the latter half of the season was disappointing to say the least. Last day with measurable precip was all the way back on Feb. 27!!!
    July ’16 – 0.00″
    Aug. ’16 – 0.00″
    Sept. ’16 – 0.92″
    Oct. ’16 – 0.09″
    Nov. ’16 – 0.20″
    Dec. ’16 – 1.50″
    Jan. ’17 – 3.53″
    Feb. ’17 – 1.65″
    Mar. ’17 – 0.00″
    Apr. ’17 – 0.00″
    May ’17 – 0.00″
    Jun ’17 – 0.00″
    TOTAL – 7.89″
    Rant: I have no idea why NWS changed the water year to Oct-Sept, it does not match our precipitation patterns. For me, the water year will ALWAYS be Jul. 1 – Jun. 30.

    • DelMarSD

      January was very impressive for the area, wow.

    • redlands

      I agree Mr Pal Springs

    • Water year makes sense if you are looking at steam flows and water supply. Precipitation for most of CA is better calculated July-June. IMHO

    • Dan the Weatherman

      The point I made above regarding the July to June rain year as opposed to the September to October year definitely applies to your area and you are absolutely right about it not matching your area’s precipitation patterns.

  • palmsprings

    Also, should add that June 2017 tied 1981 for the all-time hottest June if measured by average temperature, at 92.0F. Average high temperature for the month was 108.5F, while the 2nd half between 6/15-6/30 had an astounding average high of 115.5F!

  • DelMarSD

    I liked the Jun-July rainfall date, but this year I’m embracing the new October-Sept water year. Why? Because with my current rainfall at 19.3, I have a fair shot at reaching 20 inches by October. That would be awesome!

    • redlands

      I’ve been using the July-June rain start for over 30 years — am not gonna change

      • Dan the Weatherman

        I am also used to using the July-June rain year and I am going to continue to use it as well. Beginning the season July 1 makes sense because this is the driest time period overall in the majority of the state, since storms from the north usually don’t affect the state, except for the extreme north and the monsoon flow isn’t usually established as of yet.

        October 1, on the other hand, can be wetter in different parts of the state, with early season storms up north, remnants of tropical systems to the south, or even a cutoff low anywhere in the state.

  • HighWater
    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Was wondering where your updates have been :). Thanks for the posts.

  • redlands

    Ian – from Running Springs, Ca — What are your rain/snow stats for 2016-17 season — start date July 1st ???

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    FWIW, Euro is still bullish on the monsoon intrusion as well, though hasn’t had given as much support that it’ll make it to the immediate coast like the GFS has been showing. Regardless we all know how these can go down… In the areas the Euro & GFS are showing good convective potential, it’s looking like a fun first round of the season. One of these days I’ll make the drive out to the local deserts with a cooler to sit and watch :). As you can see here in the two graphics, the GFS has a harder time handling convective events especilly from the south when compared to the Euro, creating a much more sporadic looking output. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5323e79ce299897c45f307f03611292c75910c80286e8e9447d0e88742673886.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5012a78ba0c36e89e445aca1f83720f7354d1b8564b79aeae084ce3572722ed9.png

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      I have been entertained by severe thunderstorms in the Coachella valley and recall escaping flash flooding/ mud up to car door windows at one event.

    • Booooo EC! GFS looks much better, but I’ll take what I can get lol.

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)
    • CHeden

      The SST’s are most likely mirroring the offshores most of the month that squashed the NW winds that create the normal upwelling. Now that the fog is returning, Bodega was down to 50F, with 55F off Half Moon bay…pretty typical.

      • inclinejj

        Thus the chilly evening tempatures. Heater hasbeen coming on almost every night. It’s been pretty cool after the mini heat wave down here.

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

    Today’s 7 day QPF forecast is hinting measurable rainfall for the Laguna Mountains due to the Monsoonal moisture.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e8ef4cf1b2b8f869a1a41dd011a762f4e489c59754e2c948a870292980d376d4.png

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • Dan the Weatherman

      Hot weather to return across the west next weekend? That’s hardly a headline for an area that is usually hotter than a firecracker in July anyway, unless there is abnormally hot weather in the coastal areas and along the immediate coast. This is summer after all.

  • What caused all these AR’s last winter? Was it the different temperature gradients in the Pacific Ocean? Or something else?

    • molbiol

      Lots of variability in the OP GFS as the four corners anticyclone and EPAC trough battle it out. 18Z had the trough prevailing by day 9 but the 0Z now has the anticyclone being the winner. This will of course affect the duration and orientation of the monsoon flow and any inverted shortwaves

    • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

      We did not really seen Monsoonal Moisture last Summer at all.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        Even the mountains didn’t have a lot in the way of monsoon moisture last summer if I remember correctly.

  • Nate

    Water Year rainfall summary for Saratoga, CA (400′):

    Jul ’16 – 0.00″ – 0% avg. (.04″)
    Aug ’16 – 0.00″ – 0% avg. (.09″)
    Sep ’16 – 0.00″ – 0% avg. (.29″)
    Oct ’16 – 3.68″ – 304% avg. (1.21″)
    Nov ’16 – 1.91″ – 69% avg. (2.79″)
    Dec ’16 – 2.56″ – 74% avg. (3.46″)
    Jan ’17 – 14.17″ – 288% avg. (4.92″)
    Feb ’17 – 11.09″ – 226% avg. (4.91″)
    Mar ’17 – 2.47″ – 61% avg. (4.04″)
    Apr ’17 – 2.93″ – 227% avg. (1.29″)
    May ’17 – 0.00″ – 0% avg. (.56″)
    Jun ’17 – 0.21″ – 162% avg. (.13″)

    Total – 39.01″ – 164% of annual average (23.73″)
    Days with measurable rain – 61

    I don’t have precipitation data from ’97-’98 and ’82-’83 for my location, but going from that of a Los Gatos station with a similar elevation and totals, this season is the 3rd wettest, after the 1983 (~50″) and 1998 (~45″) water years. Interestingly enough, San Jose has had its 28th wettest season on record, while many locations in the Santa Cruz Mountains have had their wettest season. Orographic enhancement really was the name of the game this year.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/75bd071340fe673d16e731ae5bf01a89ce8357102b9aa9baf804315fe2cc981a.png

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Yet again another unfortunate drowning.

      • Cap’n

        I spent a lot of time in and around the Kern growing up. Bizarre and eerie undercurrents, no joke. My mom’s cousin was a long time ranger there. The first time I got drunk was at his daughter’s wedding. It proved to be just the beginning of a long dragon chase.

        • inclinejj

          Merle Haggard was fond of the Kern River.

          • Bombillo1

            Poor Kern. Spends its life oscillating between unrespected wimp and ruthless killer.

        • Bombillo1

          Charles Bukowski and Malcolm Lowry old friends? Your prose is good…

          • Cap’n

            Under the Volcano has been on my list for years.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          I needed a good read this morning lol

  • Cap’n

    June totals west end of Donner Lake: .4″ of rain, 2″ of snow, and only 5 collection calls.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d4a7f1789c09889a4f7d102d5483fc5f6feba66a02ffeddca2338cd6dc372a3d.jpg

    • inclinejj

      If your serious about collection calls, ask them not to call you, send correspondence via usps. Also ask them if they are following the Fair Credit Collection Act. Read the Fair Credut Colkection Act and know your rights.

  • Bombillo1

    Daniel’s update has been postponed. Like the rest of us, he has fallen asleep…

  • Maybe this has been posted.
    “Experimental NWS Potential Heat Risks”

    https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/wrh/heatrisk/?wfo=mtr

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    My totals for my location in southern Camarillo, CA. (Elev. 115 ft.)
    Jul ’16 – 0.00″
    Aug ’16 – 0.00″
    Sep ’16 – 0.00″
    Oct ’16 – 0.60″
    Nov ’16 – 0.96″
    Dec ’16 – 2.83″
    Jan ’17 – 4.27″
    Feb ’17 – 4.02″
    Mar ’17 – 0.40″
    Apr ’17 – 0.14″
    May ’17 – 0.12″
    Jun ’17 – 0.03″

    Total – 13.37″
    Annual average (15.22″)

    • DelMarSD

      Wait, are you serious? You received BELOW average rainfall this year?

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Yes sir. I’m not very surprised of course lol. This is how we typically fair regardless of how good the conditions are around us.

        • DelMarSD

          That’s nuts. The vast majority of So Cal received above-average rainfall. My annual average is less than yours, and I received over 19. Wow.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            FWIW Camarillo (& Ventura County) are a mixed bag of weather conditions when it comes to rainy days. Up the road north of me, still in town, a station recorded 18.42″. My actual rain gauge itself confirmed my total by about 0.07″. & I live on the 3rd story with nothing in the way to block any drops in the gauges. Peculiar I know, but not surprising.

          • happ [Los Angeles]

            Yes, rain shadows produced below average rainfall in nearby Burbank airport/ Tujunga area while the rest of LA was above average.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            I do happen to live in a bowl with a hill to my west & south reaching 300′-400′ with more hills to my east rising to 800’+.

          • happ [Los Angeles]

            Bingo!

        • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

          Orcutt was a whopping 9.45″ above average this season.

          • Bombillo1

            Orcutt was a cutt above.

          • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

            Last season Orcutt recived 22.03″ of rain. The Annual Average is 13.53″.

        • Bombillo1

          Well, you can’t always be below average…

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            Not always.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I will post my 2016-17 rainfall totals soon for Orange. I know that my total for the year is close to 20″, since I was at 19.49″ as of March 7.

      I am surprised your area only received 13.37″, though. You must be rain-shadowed in some way in order to only have received the total you did.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        I believe that does have something to do with, looking forward to your stats and I recommend you post them on Daniel’s next blog update slated for this evening :).

    • Howard Goodman

      I got that much in 2 days

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    NWS_Sacramento
    The only place in the nation that averages no rainfall in July
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b820ac2919295f3e54ab2faf3c831b309be561a1be85e5a208a348da91d9d3f6.jpg

    • Tuolumne

      For the white and most of the brown areas, average July rainfall being greater than 0.00″ is a statistical artifact, from averaging an occasional year with a little rain with many years of 0.00″

    • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

      It gets wetter the further east you go

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        seasonal aridity that many find comfortable so long as dew points lower while the temp rises

  • Chris

    Below is a copy of what I wrote in my “Morgan Hill Rainfall” page.

    Skip down to the bottom for what I think are some amazing statistics!

    ENJOY and have a happy 4th!

    ??2016-2017 RAINFALL REPORT??

    As the month of June comes to a close, so does our historic rainy season of 2016-2017 ( July 1st-June 30th)

    While my records only date back to 1983, this year was likely the wettest since 1900 since that is the year when Gilroy began record keeping.
    Gilroy’s wettest year was 39.03″ set in 1982-83. Another observer in Morgan Hill, who’s totals are just a tad drier than mine, recorded just over 44″ of rain that same year.
    So with the 51.33″ of rain recorded this year,I’d say with high confidence that this was the wettest season since 1900…… or earlier.

    The rainy season started off typically dry with no measurable rain falling from July 1st until October 15th.
    A weak La Nina was in place which did not bode well for a wet winter. WHATEVER!

    OCTOBER
    On the 15th, a strong storm arrived with the remnants of a super typhoon mixed in. This produced three consecutive days with 1.00″ or more falling.
    Another storm moved in towards the end of the month this time drawing up moisture from a hurricane off the coast of Baja California.
    An astonishing 7.27″ of rain fell that month which was 572% of the average 1.27″!

    NOVEMBER and DECEMBER saw slightly below average rainfall with 1.07″ (avg 2.45″) and 3.73″ (avg 4.62″) falling respectively.

    JANUARY
    During this month, the floodgates opened.
    Atmospheric rivers, one after another, pummeled the state with the Monterey Bay often in the bulls-eye from these storms.
    An incredible 19.87″ of rain fell, which was 426% of the average 4.66″, and by far beating the previous wettest month of 16.54″ that fell in February, 1998!

    FEBRUARY
    The onslaught of Atmospheric Rivers continued.
    By the 21st, records amounts of water flowed over Anderson Dam that flooded all of Coyote Creek.
    Widespread power outages affected most of Morgan Hill as winds gusting to 55 mph easily fell weakened trees that were in saturated soils.
    13.27″ or rain fell, which was 249% of the average 5.34″.
    This was also the 3rd wettest February on record.
    *The combined total for January and February alone was an amazing 33.14″ or 134% of the ANNUAL average!

    MARCH
    Rainfall was actually below average this month with only 2.85″ of rain falling which is 79% of normal of the 3.61″ average.
    Some premature browning of the grasses occurred before more rains later in the month maintained the green in the hills and fields.

    APRIL
    The rains came back in earnest the first half of the month with 3.11″ of rain falling, which is 215% of the average 1.45″
    This was also the 5th wettest April recorded.

    MAY and JUNE was, for what it’s worth, drier than average with .04″ (.53″ avg) and .09″ (.16″ avg) respectively.

    ??????????????????????????????

    HERE ARE SOME AMAZING STATISTICS FOR THIS RAINY SEASON;

    ?Days with 1.00″ or greater: 17
    ?Days with 2.00″ or greater: 6
    ?Days with 3.00″ or greater: 1

    ?More rain fell this January than the previous 6 Januarys COMBINED!

    ?More rain fell in January than each of the ANNUAL totals for 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14, and 2014-15 seasons!

    January 2017 19.87″
    2011-12 16.05″
    2012-13 16.95″
    2013-14 8.63″
    2014-15 19.53″

    ?2011-14 THREE year total: 41.63″
    ?2016-17 ONE year total: 51.33″

    ?Seattle, WA, broke their wettest October-May period with a total of 45.90″
    Morgan Hill had 51.22″ for the same period!

    ?By January 22nd, the season total topped 30″. This beat out January 1997 by three days for the earliest seasonal rainfall to reach 30″.

    ?By January 10th, 24.99″ of rain fell surpassing the annual average of 24.68″.

    ??????????????????????????????

    But has the “fun” really ended?
    We have our newly formed national “water year” which began October 1st- September 30th.
    We also have our Calendar year, which runs January 1st-December 1st.
    So, we could conceivably have some more amazing totals in the near future!

    Stay tuned!

    • DelMarSD

      Crazy stats.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Wow your October, January and February rainfall was insane. I think you did the best rainfall wise out of anyone in the Bay Area. For me I know I reached my average rainfall in 40- 50 days, you must have reached your average in close to a month.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Well done Chris! January was just amazingly wet. And that’s how I remember January’s in the past, WET, until that horrible drought happened upon us. Imagine if we’d had another drought winter? We were literally saved by this past winter’s gift.

      • Chris

        I think it also made up for the 4 previous very dry January’s keeping the avg close to where it was before!

    • Thanks for having meticulous records!! 🙂

      • Chris

        My pleasure! I love doing this. Best hobby ever!

    • Craig Matthews

      Awesome post. The persistent trajectory of this winters storms and alignment of winds with local topography, no doubt, had a lot to do with why the southern santa clara valley, in particular, did so well this winter IRT precip, while areas in the valley just to the north and south did not do nearly as well do to rainshadowing. It was as if the flow of moisture-precip associated with this winter’s storms and ARs was persistently funneled the same way thru the relative gap( from Fremont Pk to Mt Madonna) between the higher coast ranges to the south and north(santa lucias/gabilans south, and higher S.C mtns north)…. to consistently place your area in the sweet spot with each passing storm n AR.

      • Chris

        Another factor is that Morgan Hill isn’t really rain shadowed.
        Watching the radar, there were times where the coast was dry, then turned to “dark green and yellow” over the coast range, then decreased to light green and green over Morgan Hill.
        The drops were small but very concentrated.
        One such day in January produced over an inch of rain here while the immediate coast had very little.
        Our mountains to the west are just over 1,000 feet, the valley is narrow, and the mountains to our east are 2,500ft or so.
        I think the flow aloft often stays elevated as our surface winds often calm therefore keeping our valley quite wet.
        It’s an amazing microclimate here.

  • I’ll have an update on upcoming monsoonal potential by this evening. Looks like a fairly extended period with at least occasional pulses of moisture over SoCal…

    • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

      Its certianly will be humid as well.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Here is a rare photo of me outside my home not looking at GFS maps. I was at AX this year. The https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/159fd90225ba255d29c40c7c15e56dec1929cfd8d9a3821bb0fe5af8f37c8ef1.jpg monsoonal blast looks like the coastal and valley locations will get in on the action.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Like the Santa outfit, you look good in, ummm, red…

      oh wait –

  • Nate

    I think has been discussed before, but does anyone know why exactly the NWS and USGS switched to the Oct-Sep water year? It certainly doesn’t make sense to use Oct-Sep in our Mediterranean climate, but did this change better represent yearly precipitation in other parts of the country?

    • Tuolumne

      The State of California has long used the October-September water year, I think because it makes sense when connecting one winter’s meaningful runoff period to the following year’s agricultural water delivery period. Beyond that, I don’t know. I agree it doesn’t make sense for us in meteorological terms.

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        Both are fine because they reflect seasonal factors unlike yearly Jan-Dec calendar.

    • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

      My county uses Sept-Aug format

    • redlands

      Am sticking with the July-June rain start/end — been using over 30 years —- not gonna change — all the stats – records – etc have to be readjusted

  • Cap’n

    I see a whiskey fueled domestic dispute taking shape between Mommy Nature and Monsieur Monsoon in the early days of July.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4a1c1e414f4262ea02ac27e6bf85aabcd350c43475ebf142c59cdd0b1d81fd1b.png

  • AlTahoe

    Going to be hot today. Had to blow up the bacon, taco, watermelon and strawberry for a lake float party today. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/30c6ea002701e30a6a790cd0c982fe67beb24152e4121ccadd794ef6ee3e4db9.jpg

    • Tuolumne

      Where’s the BFD? (Beer Flotation Device)

      • AlTahoe

        It’s the floating cooler in the front of the picture 🙂

    • alanstorm

      Yeah, Ukiah is 97° today

    • inclinejj

      Actually it says 86 for Incline? Is it that warm up there?

      • matthew

        IMO, anthing over 85 qualifies as insufferably hot.

        • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

          I have always felt 85 and above in the Sierra is hot, 6000′ elev and no AC can wear on you. At least the overnight lows have been good. Recall a few years ago temps near 80 around 9pm and it seemed the house never would cool down. Granted those buried in the trees say “what sun?” When they’re in the shade all day.