Searing, prolonged heatwave developing across much of California & Desert Southwest

Filed in Uncategorized by on June 16, 2017 1,227 Comments

Prolonged, dangerous heatwave imminent for areas away from coast

Very warm temperatures will encompass all of California during this heat wave. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

After a relatively mild May and early June period across most of California, a rather remarkable heatwave is already underway and will likely persist for many days. Today will be the first of potentially 7-10 very hot days across inland portions of California and interior portions of the American Southwest, and numerous high temperature records are likely to fall in the coming days. The upcoming heat will be of a dangerous intensity and duration in a significant number of highly populated regions, including the Phoenix, Tuscon, Las Vegas, Bakersfield, Fresno, and Sacramento metropolitan areas. Cities closer to the Pacific coast will still see hot to very hot temperatures over the next week, but not to quite as exceptional a degree as these inland areas.

 

Dynamics of a heatwave with some unusual characteristics

The present heatwave strongly resembles a similar event which occurred just last year (in June 2016), which brought record temperatures to inland desert portions of the Southwest. The event over the next 7-10 days, however, has the potentially to slightly more intense and significantly more prolonged–meaning that overall impacts could be considerably greater. It’s interesting to note that both the GFS and ECMWF model ensembles did a good job capturing this event–with strong signals for anomalous warmth appearing 10-14 days in advance.

A very large and unusually strong mid-tropospheric ridge will be in place over the entire Western U.S. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

A strong and broad high pressure ridge is developing over the West Coast and interior Southwest, and will shift slowly westward over time. As it does so, the hottest temperatures will slowly shift from the southern Arizona deserts this weekend to the California interior early next week. Though it’s often California’s good fortune to experience “dry heat”–during which low surface dewpoints actually decrease the “apparent temperature” and take the edge off otherwise searing temperatures–that won’t necessarily be the case during the present heatwave. An unusually moist airmass is currently in place over much of California, which can be linked to the passage of an unusually strong atmospheric river over the Pacific Northwest yesterday (which brought heavy June rain to Washington but just clouds to Northern California). Linger moisture will become trapped within the stagnant airmass under the building ridge–which ultimately means that the extreme temperatures associated with the upcoming heatwave will coincide with a rather moist airmass and unusually high surface dewpoints.

This added moisture has several implications. First, it will make the intense heat feel even more oppressive (i.e. “muggy”), as apparent temperatures will not fall below the actual temperature as they often do during California heatwaves. Second, higher dewpoints will greatly inhibit overnight cooling across inland areas. In fact, portions of the Central Valley could see overnight lows staying as high as 70-80 degrees. Lack of overnight cooling is one of the strongest predictors of heat-related illness during prolonged heatwaves, so this presents significant concerns. Finally, the relatively “juicy” airmass by California standards will allow afternoon thunderstorms to develop over the Sierra Nevada on most afternoons during the heatwave. While not currently depicted in model forecasts, previous experience with events like these suggests that there will be at least a small chance of some convective build-ups and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms outside of the Sierra Nevada. These would be most likely over the San Joaquin Valley, where the confluence of extremely hot temperatures and outflow boundaries propagating away from Sierra Nevada storms could act as a localized trigger. The chance of this happening is low, but it’s worth mentioning as an indicator that this heatwave is a departure from the norm in California.

An unusually moisture airmass will be associated with the developing heatwave across most of California. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

 

Sweltering inland, but merely “hot” near the coast

Slightly cooler than average SSTs are currently in place off the CA coast. (NOAA Coral Reef Watch)

This heatwave will behave more typically in another respect, however: immediate coastal areas will not experience exceptionally hot temperatures during this event. This is a characteristic shared with nearly all June heatwaves in California. Why? The near-shore Pacific Ocean is still too cold enough in May and June to generate strong near-shore sea breezes when things heat up inland–acting as a natural air conditioner for places within about 10 miles of the coastline. Later in the summer (by August and September), sea surface temperatures are warmer, and this effect is less pronounced. This is the reason that San Francisco and the beaches of Southern California typically see their hottest temperatures of the year in late summer and autumn. On the other hand, the upcoming heatwave will likely be prolonged enough to curtail coastal upwelling–meaning that near-shore SSTs may begin to rise by next week and provide progressively less relief as the event drags on.

While the coastal plain of California experiences highs mostly below 90 degrees next week, most of the Central Valley will see temperatures approaching 110 degrees (and perhaps even getting close to 115 in some portions of the San Joaquin). California’s southeastern deserts will see temperatures of 115-120 degrees. Incredibly, the Phoenix, AZ region may see temperatures rising into 122-123 degree territory. Except along the immediate coast, these values will likely break daily temperature records in many places, and will approach monthly June records in some spots. In the hottest desert regions, all-time high temperature records (for any month) may be at risk.

 

Relief in sight? Maybe not.

The ECMWF suggest the searing heatwave may persist for 7-10+ days. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Heatwaves in California rarely last longer than a few consecutive days, or a week at the most. Yet it’s not clear at this point that the developing heatwave will be quick to dissipate. In fact, the ECMWF ensemble now suggests that the ridge may re-strengthen considerably next weekend after weakening only slightly late next week–turning this already remarkable heatwave into a 10+ day event. The GFS is a bit more merciful in showing a partial breakdown of the ridge in 8/9 days, but at this point it’s hard to say which solution is more likely. Either way: this will likely be a high-impact and very uncomfortable event for those living away from the ocean for the next week at least. Stay tuned.

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  • Danlyle (Mariposa)

    115F at Navajo Bridge Highway 89A over Colorado River yesterday when I drove by. That was the lowest elevation of my trip and the related highest temp. River sure looked nice and cool, but a little out of reach.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c7e52b8c5e5bf5282ae34670447667af82b7fffba113e8d37b0bf5ba6acb7d53.jpg

    • Bombillo1

      That water is ice cold as it comes out of the bottom of Powell.. Floated the Colorado from Lee’s Ferry to Lake Mead, about this time of year, and could not even wade in it until we got within 75 miles of Mead.

      • inclinejj

        How is the fishing in the cold water part of the river?

        • Bombillo1

          That subject was of great interest to me.. The river as it is now is much colder than it ever was historically. The 2 giant dams have altered this system completely. In fact, trout were not native to the main channel but only to several of the upper feeder streams due to the warmth and turbidity, mainly the warmth. It is now a very productive tail-water fishery for trout, that can be easily seen in the clear water. I did not bring any f gear as we were going through rapids almost every day and there really was not much time. As you know, flyfishing is not a group sport. I figure if you can see them feeding, the fishing is good. I saw them feeding regularly.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • happ [Los Angeles]

      It seems that the river temps are abnormally low due to high volume. I have swam in the Little Chico creek during summers and always remember the temp to be perfect [70F].

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Generally the major rivers are still heavily influenced my snowmelt. I’ve been in the upper Kern after a heavy late May snow & then early June modest heatwave, enough to get the river on a rise, & it was around 45°F. Cold enough for us to take breaks keeping our toes out of the water in the rafts and shrieking when we were hit with water in the rapids. One guy fell off a nearby raft & his entire left torso hit a rock when he went under. About an hour and a half later that area of his body had bruised black.

  • Craig Matthews

    Getting strong North winds in the Redding area. Temps in the upper 90’s at 10:20am. Wheeew!

  • WalkmanJG

    Did I miss something…??? 🙂 I thought tomorrow was supposed to be the critical day but what I’m reading now seems like that was moved up to today? By critical I mean power grid stress and the potential for grid failure…

    • Pfirman

      Whatever today does, tomorrow is still looking to be worse.

      • WalkmanJG

        Gotcha, thanks!

  • mattzweck

    here in the high desert / Lancaster area. over 101 outside and it’s only 10:45 am. steaming hot. everybody better drink lots of water today. and stay cool if your coming through here today.

  • mattzweck

    here a link to California iso. http://www.caiso.com/Pages/TodaysOutlook.aspx

    • I just downloaded the app on my phone…sweet

      • Pfirman

        Lot to chew on there. Cool interaction of wind and solar as sun comes and goes. Not sure I understand the ‘net demand’ bit yet.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Yesterday’s heat. This is when coastal dwellers just smile and jump in the 67F water temp surf at Santa Monica beach. It has been humid [dewpoints: 60’s] in SoCal; now I see even the Imperial valley is reporting dew points in the 70’s w/ morning temps in the 90’s.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/694e023c39b3b8d45af67cb6d7cf7b832ff4386f093bb6baf429f75685d1855a.jpg

  • alanstorm

    Back home in Willits after 5 days, now in a pitched battle with the DEER (5-10) driving them from the shade spots around my living area, to which they’ve laid claim during my absence.
    I’m the only parcel around without a BIG DOG, so my place us the default safe-zone.
    Big fat DOE came crashing out of my workshop this morn, thru the fence wire I put up, knocking an entire shelf over, prancing away mockingly only to circle around & re-enter minutes later as I had coffee.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      What about the coyotes?

      • alanstorm

        I’ve only heard faint yelps in the distance on occasion. Predators have been driven off around here. Too many growers with dogs & people with guns.
        We had a MtLion before, then it killed one of my idiot neighbor’s alpaca, so they hunted & offed it unfortunately.

        • Bombillo1

          Humans are the most lethal of all the invasive species.

          • alanstorm

            Of course.

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          Coyotes are abundant in the foothills here. Fat and ambling down the road they are indifferent to humans. It is sad to read NextDoor notices of missing cats/ dogs.

          • alanstorm

            Friend in Vegas says you can NEVER let your cat outside or it will be gone.

          • happ [Los Angeles]

            There’s a fire road below my property that people use. The number of unleashed dogs killed by coyotes is staggering yet owners want them to run free to their own peril/tragedy.

          • alanstorm

            Wow. We have them here, they just don’t seem as abundant in NW CA. in the heavy forested areas. SoCal has so many urban areas encroaching on arid habitat, I can imagine they are quite bold

          • happ [Los Angeles]

            We see coyotes running down city streets late at night, on occasion. They are well adapted to living near humans

          • Dan the Weatherman

            I hear coyotes quite often here in Orange at night. They live / travel in the creek bed behind my area. I have seen them once or twice in my backyard, but that hasn’t happened in quite a few years, fortunately.

        • matthew

          Man moves out of the city to be closer to the great outdoors. Man encounters the great outdoors. Man employs lethal force to make the great outdoors more like the city.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        I heard some out in those plains in Colorado

    • inclinejj

      My 4 month old cattle dog already tries to chase deer away from the house. My neighbor doesn’t have a fence and they use the in between houses area as their path.

      • alanstorm

        They can leap ANY fence with ease.

        • inclinejj

          They are also much faster than dogs!

          • matthew

            Not so sure about that. My dog surprised one next to our driveway a few months ago. The deer took off and he was in hot pursuit. Over the course of about 200 yards he actually gained ground on the deer. It was the first time I had ever seen him in flat-out, adrenaline-driven pursuit – impressive to watch.

          • Pfirman

            That breed is special. I thought you had two.

          • matthew

            Good memory. Yes, I do have two but I was able to grab the female’s leash. Only the boy had the fun of the pursuit.

          • inclinejj

            Woah what kind of dog?

          • matthew

            He is a tall, lanky (29″, 100 pound) Rhodesian Ridgeback. He did not break off the chase until they got to the edge of the lot and went downhill into the brush. Was barely breathing hard when he got back.

  • Max Track

    Sitting outside in flannel shirt in the Northside of Berkeley, the coastal influence keeping us pretty much normal in temperature, while the grid from the national weather service (Cedar/MLK area) has me in the eighties yesterday and today. I’d actually like it to be a little warmer, I guess I could go 10 blocks east !

    • alanstorm

      U should go on a morning run with Jstrhal, regular WW poster representing Berkeley weather

  • Nate

    Just had a small quake in Berkeley, magnitude 3.3.

    • Bombillo1

      So what is the threshold for the new warning system?

      • Pfirman

        All the cell phones going off would register more than 3.3.

      • Nate

        The beta system was triggered today; it’ll detect anything larger than a 3.0. It’s to individual users/public agencies (like BART) to set their own threshold for magnitude and intensity. My guess is that the public agencies using it will set a higher threshold to avoid desensitizing everyone to the warnings.

      • GumbyDharma

        If you have an Android phone you can download the MyShake app from Berkeley Seismo lab:

        http://myshake.berkeley.edu/

        It helps contribute quake data to researchers (using the phone’s accelerometer) and gives you notifications of quakes. I enjoy scrolling around the map looking at all the quakes in Oklahoma!

  • molbiol

    Bad news for those like myself awaiting the monsoon but good news for those that want this heat wave to end: GFS ensembles have the strong 500mb anomaly centered over AZ and extending into CA for the next few days (first image); however this is not a favorable monsoon pattern. Early next week the 500mb ridge breaks down and heights (and temps) look closer to normal (this means more afternoon winds in the deserts and deeper marine air intrusions). This appears to be a response to the same old Aleutian block reasserting itself (second image). As we get into July (probably after the 4th holiday) the 500mb anomaly re-appears in most of the ensembles but this time it looks like a more favorable monsoon orientation. Until then, it is a waiting game.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8719c2202c61a782fb2c2ef8f2edf21299711d2fbc9e81e6c3f9e1c497b481ba.jpg

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/82b7c441f32009d948577dcdacc193fd88757fc76b13b640a54944408b9f1bee.jpg

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ceff8d6bd3cac489645f88b42f94817b70ef22ed32bd5f7ff8e0733fb62f7696.jpg

    • Freddy66

      Screw the monsoon….I want some marine intrusion into the San Fernando valley. This heat sucks. And it’s only June.

      • molbiol

        BLASPHEMY!!!! 😉

      • Dan the Weatherman

        It is simply too early in the season to be having this intense heat west of the mountains. It does start to heat up in the San Fernando Valley in June, but not quite to this level we have been experiencing. This is more typical of mid July to early September weather. In other words, this is more typical of the heart of summer as opposed to late spring / early summer.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I wouldn’t mind some cooler weather for a while with some marine layer before the monsoon kicks in. This is too early for this type of intense heat and the monsoon doesn’t really get started until early to mid July anyway, and doesn’t usually peak until August and early September.

    • Craig Matthews

      Well, I could go for a cooler PNW trough overtaking the state for a few days, but can’t do without the monsoon action for too long either…

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Check out these dew points in Ventura county.

    *SIMI VALLEY : 89 65 44 W7 29.69S HX 90
    *WESTLAKE VILL : 89 66 46 NW1 29.71F HX 92
    *OJAI : 97 67 37 CALM 29.66F HX 101

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      That’s what we’ve been having here the lat couple days and I’m not use to it

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I was just checking the Hourly Weather Roundups and as of noon (9 am HI time), the latest observation for Kahului, Maui actually had a lower dew point than parts of Ventura County!

      KAHULUI, MAUI MOSUNNY 82 64 54 NE15 30.01S

    • Craig Matthews

      Interesting. GFS showing some potential over central coast Saturday night/early Sunday. Might get some nocturnal stuff going(?)…just hope we don’t get the wildfire starts, but one can one do…

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        That was my thought too, don’t need a repeat of 2008 when it seemed like most of Nor Cal was on fire. I had never seen anything like that, most of the state was just covered in smoke. As I recall FFs came in from almost every state. You couldn’t drive on I80 w/out seeing various out of state agencies and crews headed west (to the $$$$).

        • Craig Matthews

          Interesting that that event happened with a heatwave around this same time in June. I remember watching the sat pics the day after that mega bust, and oh man this whole state was littered in puffs of smoke from all the strikes. Big Sur had fire all around for weeks….the Basin complex.

    • Hey you were spot on in your blog. I kinda had doubts about severity and wasn’t thinking there’d be near records and records set every day. I was thinking all-time, which some places did pop or tie.

      • Craig Matthews

        So did I wrt the doubts. This was such a drastic turn-a round both sensibly and synoptically. Thought it would get hot, but not this….

        • Pfirman

          I thought Cheden had a copyright on ‘sensibly and synoptically’……….just yanking your chain.

          • Craig Matthews

            Got that from the source, lol

          • Bombillo1

            Like urticacious and quiescent, to be used only by the original minter.

    • Pfirman

      Risk?

      • ….because it’s more relevant than probability or chance.

        • Pfirman

          Hmmm. It just sounds pejorative.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Sounds like dry lightning. What places specifically do you think will be at the biggest risk for convection. Blessed to not have to worry about dry lightning sparking fires around me

  • Cap’n

    Another toasty day with lone boomer looking for a friend near Tahoe City.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7698eb814f47df4feda97d5d64d73e9cc81f07f170fef45eb4716d512c34b4a8.jpg

    • inclinejj

      I had to read that again, I thought you said a lone boner looking for a friend.

      • Cap’n

        Weather erotica.

      • Pfirman

        Was it because of the scattered white trucks? There is a reason…

        “Lake Forest Beach Park is a popular spot
        for swimming, sightseeing, bird watching, horseshoes, picnicking and
        wind surfing. Limited parking is available.”

        Popular spot……limited parking…..story of my life.

  • They are really ripping the spillway. The chute box looks like it will go or IMO part of it might be saved. To be a kid and watching this stuff every day in a heartbeat…dream on

  • Thunderstorm

    Barometer dropping fast.29.66 falling. Was a SW wind here this morning which always means lower pressure to the north. Hottest tomorrow likely southern Sacramento valley as thermal low drops to the south.

    • Pfirman

      Thermal low…..great oxymoron?

  • Thor

    Even the water vapor image looks hot. Looks like steam.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/flash-wv.html

  • Cap’n

    Sky has darkened up here on the west side and the temp is a little cooler, maybe some afternoon delight in store.

  • inclinejj

    Was outside doing some yard work. Walked in 84.9 for the high Pacifica!!

    Hey Geo is your rain gauge showing rain again today also?

  • Shane Ritter
  • 41 degree spread today 101 and low of 60. Now it’s 99 but feels like 100 per accurate WU station near my house.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Gilroy can score some pretty hot temps; was Morgan Hill warmer?

      • Today I think Morgan Hill was a few degrees warmer. Gilroy can heat up and cool down like Morgan Hill

  • alanstorm

    107° for Ukiah, & no fun

    • David

      Hit 108 here in Paradise. And no fun also….

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Part of NWS Monterey discussion shows the crazy microclimates of the Bay Area during heatwaves in the summer. “For instance, the Big Sur coast is in the upper 50s along the Hwy 1 and 92 degrees at Anderson Peak a mere two miles away.”

  • Pfirman

    Currently about 106F in Woodpile. It’s been rising about two degrees an hour since noon. By midnight that means it’s going to be….oh, wait.

    • Tuolumne

      By Sunday night it’ll literally be boiling in your town. Do you have a walk-in freezer and generator to tide you over?

      • Pfirman

        Just the Sacramento River, which is pretty chilly even this far from Shasta.

    • BethElDoradoHills

      please be careful – our veggie garden compost pile started smoking because it got so hot from the bacteria – can only imagine what would happen in woodpile

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    NWS_LA was correct in forecasting 7 days of 90’s but at least they have been low 90’s in my area. Warm nights.
    92/ 69

  • Justin Acharya
    • Justin Acharya

      Helicopters and an airplane circling. Fircrew on ground trying to save a mansion.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    INTENSE thunderstorms in the mountains and Nevada. The one cell near Squaw Valley is just below severe limits and is under a significant weather advisory with winds of 50-55 mph. Other thunderstorms have also produced flood advisories and significant weather advisories. I’m sure the Tahoe weatherwesters and those in Reno have a great view of the storms https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ee74a44c5821c3698ad80433a1ae8f9e2b089f3af2ed3ab0c7a0eb6d47f0b788.png

  • Any else get an SMS from NOAA ENS regarding tomorrow’s temps and list of cooling centers? (Santa Clara County)

  • AlTahoe

    Recorded my first clap of thunder here in South lake about an hour ago. First thunderstorm since February. No rain but crazy outflow winds while mt biking https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c46d9e256c87485046017cd56d6f561ed7e9be04031a4e880c691922b09945e8.jpg

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Prediction/ Forecast: Slight chance of thunderstorms for the East Bay tonight ( This is a possibility not what the outcome could be)

  • Cap’n

    Nothing but some buildups above our neighborhood, but I did take my first plunge into the lake, warmer than I thought it’d be.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/259bdf5d6ec3a758a734a34c20228b2e75fc14703faaffcbc1a87a130dae59df.jpg

  • TheNothing
  • Craig Matthews

    Here’s a Sounding comparison for late this morning, and for early this evening in the Fort Ord/Monterey area( from tropicaltidbits.com ) Strong compression of the strong marine layer this evening. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ff529437aee295a4d30f0a31c26109fbf411909f7c753b1c781f9e731181c6a0.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8f6778f859eca78f4c9ce025fea01062022fa90738a3b31f8f107e343aba1de7.png

    • It’s thick down there this evening. Second hand report from a spotter

      • PRCountyNative

        Yesterday (Wednesday) morning: A finger of fog and some cool air in the morning.

        Today: 74 degrees all night with a fresh warm/hot ESE offshore wind. Marine layer nowhere in sight, at sunset it had been pushed back to the ocean.

        Looks like a scorcher after a couple days not so bad.

        Near Craig’s house.

        • In the north bay there are reports of temps in the 80’s already. Not too bad in Morgan Hill. 61 for a low

  • Chris

    How is it possible that the dew point has reached 70 or higher in 4 locations in the Central Valley as of 9:00pm???
    I’m perplexed as hell.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/92eadd0f867bbcc8889d358b1983359c687efc307e4ed179ec846849f9cba898.png I have not seen this even in the most moist monsoons or hurricane remnant.

    • Craig Matthews

      Lotta rice fields around Marysville, and highly irrigated fields in some of those nearby towns. That’s probably a factor

    • weathergeek100

      I second the comment below. One of the reasons for high humidity in the plains states is due to surrounding agriculture.

  • Charlie B

    Reno was 8 degrees cooler than yesterday. I am not sure why, as it was cloudless. Other nearby areas were warmer.

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    The GFS continues to show various high pressure systems floating around off our coast after this heatwave, so why are we cooling down by Friday night? Are these different high pressure systems? Lower level, upper level? Looks like the heatwave should last until 6/30, but instead we cool down into the 70’s in 5-6 days.

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    just one more day, and it is going to be an inferno. High pressure is slowly heading NE towards Canada, but wind direction will remain to favor onshore flow. Looking at wind direction its coming straight from NW Nevada through the Sierras. That dry hot desert air, the last gut punch from this system.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/85dfe02d93580e01edd728a78b0f32ab6b76049488b903d40789ddc9db3dcdbf.png

    • Can’t wait for tomorrow…….Sarcasm.

      • Bombillo1

        Sat is when we get it in the gonads. 107 on the ranch, normal lapse rates would put Redding at 114 or so. Where the hell is cheden with the blow by blow on this thing?

        • Pfirman

          Don’t know about Cheden, but this is sounding pretty good.

          https://ohiocryo.com/what-is-cryotherapy/

          • Bombillo1

            “These patients experienced a huge release of endorphins as a result of the cold treatment, leading to a reduced sensitivity to pain and decreased inflammation”

            I prefer my endorphins the old fashion way. Pharmaceuticals.

      • Henry

        Yes, I think today will be a scorcher. At Los Gatos RAWs in my neck of the woods the low temperature last night was 80 degrees which occurred at 8 PM. The temperature remained in the 80s overnight and was 86 degrees at 7 AM this morning. This shows just how hot the air mass over California is today. There is only a thin marine layer to keep areas near the coast under 90 in the afternoon and cool them down at night.

  • inclinejj
    • roseland67

      Had a Siberian manned Raider about 25 years ago, great hound

      • inclinejj

        When I first lived in Tahoe I walked out to the garage and there was a husky pup sitting there. I walked up and down the streets no one knew him, pet stores and vet offices. He was Raider #1.

        I think someone was on vacation and lost him and left.

        • roseland67

          Our Raider had 1 blue eye and 1 brown eye, weighed about 60 lbs and absolutely loved the kids.
          He is missed

    • Bombillo1

      I was wondering when the dog photos would start.. It’s the season.

    • Fairweathercactus

      I thought he would be wondering how much longer they are going to stick around in CA.

      • inclinejj

        I wouldnt be the least bit surprised when the Vegas deal blows up in bowl cut Mark Davis’s face. There are reasons why Oakland and Alameda County played hard ball with him.

        Even so, if he gets the move done I already put in my deposit.

  • Sublimesl

    Temperature jumped 5 degrees overnight in Oakland Hills. This does not portend well for today. Was hoping the one day heat up would fizzle.

  • DayHoe Herald

    84F in far southwest Davis at 0617 — by far the hottest night in our 4 years as Davisites — should be a total cooker today.

    • Pfirman

      There have been some hotter nights. Thinking of doing some pagan ceremonies to entice the Delta breeze.

      • matthew

        “Thinking of doing some pagan ceremonies”

        Be sure to post video.

      • DayHoe Herald

        Ok, I’m in — which fields should we target tonight for creating some crop circles?

  • weathergeek100

    Warm early morning (relatively) here in Emeryville. Temp is at 62 (normal is more around 52). I predict a coastal temp spike here! Forecast says 80 but I think it’s to be more like 88-ish.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Never got to post these yesterday evening, but these photos are not IRT California weather, however I wanted to share them since TS Cindy is the first of the first this season & I got a little glimpse of it’s beauty on my flight home, then had a nice fly over of some thunderstorms over El Paso… Of course, loving weather so much I will always bolt for a window seat. SATX Int’l. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/65ff2555663ee5ec5c0ab5fbe2957cab59cf2cda999d42c1743b10848c4ac3b4.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aa4d8f16b6c4c22621c67955c445f2d3d14bb6c5e7553aebd6f586247633bb9b.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e4264e50decf8e5df2163ac9cdec19385cc11a924d5ba8a830ad63685f70eb7d.jpg

  • Fairweathercactus

    Models showing less moisture for Sunday and showing Sunday being the warmest day of the week so far for my area :-/

  • Craig Matthews

    The GFS continuing to show weak upper level disturbance(s) riding up through central CA this weekend around a nw-se elongated Ridge over NV( I think this feature is what Daniel was talking about yesterday regarding the possible risk of elevated convection this weekend ? ). Questioning the amount of moisture to work with for elevated convection on the central coast, but looks like, at least, the Sierra and maybe Northern Mtns will get a better chance at some action especially Sunday afternoon. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/46a5263878e3519a919f0e33bebc9eb966ecccb892643e6fe6f2f66192f3f354.png

  • weathergeek100

    Dewpoint at Sacramento intl airport reached 70 yesterday evening for a brief time. This is more typical of Louisiana. Never have I ever seen this before in Northern CA. Wow.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sto&sid=KSMF&num=72&raw=0

    I figure it might have something to do with the surrounding agriculture? Maybe also the fact that the delta is so filled with water these days? What could it be? Is the moist airmass that was in place last week still trapped here? Combo of all of these?

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Dew points are very high across California but when the Central Valley hits 70 degree DP during summer you know it is extremely humid/ miserable. Swamp coolers don’t do well in these conditions.

    • It’s mostly due to remnant moisture from last week’s “dry” atmospheric river in NorCal. It didn’t produce any rain in CA, but the column moisture became trapped as ridge built overhead and compressed it down toward the surface.

      There is probably also a secondary effect coming from the still-wet soils and Delta region (and, in some case, deliberate agricultural ponding) throughout the Central Valley after a very wet winter.

      • DayHoe Herald

        Thanks for that — great description of rare confluence of events that I’ll use in upcoming ‘heat discussions’ these next few days.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Marine layer extended inland a ways overnight w/ overcast skies even into the San Gabriel valley for a while this morning. Nice change. Today should be below 90F for the first time in over a week. Dewpoints are high.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Was surprised when I woke up to a deep marine layer this morning that was not predicted. Definitely muggy but I’ll take this cooler weather over the hot temps over the last week. Currently 78 w/ 61 dew point

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        Yes, I could feel the cooling last night; better sleeping weather.

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      Nice to see it extend out there for you guys…John Curtis and the CFTv2 (coastal fog theory) staff should be out collecting data for their 17/18 winter forecast…

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        “coastal fog theory”? Can you elaborate, please?

  • 8283 El Nino baby

    Today is tracking temp wise with the scorcher on Sunday. Currently 89 at 10:26. It was 90 on Sunday at this time.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      I’ve noticed there is a slight more onshore flow that is causing the temps to be a several degrees cooler in places on the Penninsula compared to Sunday at the same time. At 10:48 here it’s 82 compared to Sunday when it was 91 at 11

      • Thunderstorm

        Strong inversion layer today by the SF bay. Very weak SW wind earlier now no wind at all. If the inversion breaks then the humidity comes down currently very high at 64%, with a temp of 85F.

        • In Florida the ‘magic’ number is 70% RH. Below 70% is tolerable above 70% is just plain gross.
          You’re at a 91 degree ‘feels like”. For Ca that’s gross IMO.

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          So you have a dew point of 72 thats hard to believe

      • inclinejj

        There is a huge shallow fog bank off shore this morning. At 5:00 it was a tad chilly at the beach but when I was walking back about 6:30 it was noticeably warmer.

  • mattzweck

    here in the high desert Lancaster area. 10:50am already over 100 out.

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  • alanstorm

    112° today for poor Marysville, a record.
    Wouldn’t be fun to live in one if those many trailer parks with dysfunctional AC

    • Swamp cooler?

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        swamp coolers don’t do well during elevated dew points or temps as high as Marysville has been experiencing

    • inclinejj

      I helped a buddy remodel a little house in Olivehurst aka Olivepit.

      • alanstorm

        Flood zone as well

  • John

    I don’t know if this has been commented on recently, but it’s a kick to compare the forecasts NWS does with its user-defined forecasts, which can focus on about one square mile, and Weather Underground. For example, this morning WU predicted high of about 85 in Orinda; it’s already 99 degrees (or so it says on their site, my gauge shows “only” about 94). Now, WU predicts a high of 95 (?!). Meanwhile, NWS predicted consistently a high between 99-106 (they give a range and stick to it).

    Now, WU has a lot of interesting information that is at least hard to find on NWS; but, for the core of what you want and need, there’s no comparison.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      That is an unacceptable discrepancy by WU. Who was the meteorologist responsible? 99F is dangerous heat.

  • inclinejj

    KTVU 2 Bay Area just reported 2 heat related deaths in the South Bay(San Jose area)

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Dew points are miserable for the low desert, especially Imperial Valley:
    IMPERIAL AP SUNNY 99 71 40 VRB6 29.68S HX 107
    EL CENTRO NAS SUNNY 98 69 38 SE7 29.70S HX 104

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Imperial has a index of 108!

    • Craig Matthews

      Incredible!

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Now its 92 66 42 here, heat index is 95

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      When was the last time these conditions occurred? 2006?

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        Happened on Sunday it was 97 67 at one point and the heat index peaked around 106-110, absolutely insane!

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          Can you recall similar conditions in past years?

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            I cannot, only have had a weather station since August 2014, but I can remember some time between 2008-2012 when the actual temperature was 108-110 here. The actual high on Sunday was 102.1

          • happ [Los Angeles]

            Yes, the Bay Area/ Santa Clara/ Salinas valleys roasted just like the Central Valley. Down here, it was hot but no higher than low 90’s for me

    • Bombillo1

      Let me know when you get to 36-24-36.

  • 8283 El Nino baby

    Just hit 100 according to my weather station. Reid Hill View is just 2 miles down the road and shows 95 on NWS site However, its about 400 feet lower than my location.

    Wonder if that could explain the discrepancy. That and the fact that my station is mounted well above the roof, which is good for wind and rain totals, but not ideal for temperature readings.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/707827bce18dbb900db1dc35d0ffc276087d2ac4f1b589703f64a262be8b6043.png

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Are you in Bay Area?

      • 8283 El Nino baby (San Jose)

        Yes, in east San Jose. Thanks for reminding me to update my username with my location.

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          I have in-laws that live near Rancho San Jose/ Fremont

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          You forgot the slash?

          • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

            Thanks. Somehow my profile changed yesterday to show my Google profile and actual name.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    I don’t know if this has ever happened before, but with having reached 90 today where I live, I have seen a week of 90 plus with dew points in the mid 60s everyday. Astonishing heatwave I feel has only been seen a couple times here in recorded history!

    • 8283 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      Same here, this is a long heatwave. Since June 16th its been: 92, 96, 108, 103, 98, 99, and now at 101 for the day.

    • Nathan

      This has to rank in the upper echelons of all time worst inland heat waves.

    • June 2006 San Jose set record high ‘lows’ from June 18th-24th 2006
      Three consecutive days also set record highs. 2006 was BRUTAL for NA.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    4 alarm fire grass fire with possible structures threatened in Vallejo. Reports of one building possibly on fire.

  • 8283 El Nino baby (San Jose)

    Interesting tidbit, at least to a dork like me. The hottest day of the year thus far was on 6/18 (108) and the coldest day was 12/18. So very close to occurring on the summer and winter solstice and exactly 6 months apart.

    • Dave

      What temp did you have for 12/18?

      • 8283 El Nino baby (San Jose)

        Got down to 28.

  • matthew
    • What do you estimate the temperature?

      • matthew

        At my house right now I am in the high-80’s at 6100′. Tough to estimate on the mountain when you are hiking through a snow field. Rough guess would be high 60’s at around 11 a.m. at 8000′. I was wearing shorts and a light shirt and sweating buckets. Car thermometer said 81 when I started driving again at noon (6200′).

        • Pfirman

          Wear long pants and sleeves. Please.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Looks refreshing!

    • Cap’n

      I’ve dropped the idea of riding there on the 4th just to say I did, it’s just too damn hot to wrap my mind around it. We’re planning on shooting for Mt. Lola to see how far up we can get on Sunday, leaving early to beat the heat. The whole first section is in the shade.

      • matthew

        Good luck with Lola. The snow is still pretty firm (no post holing) but it reeaallly slows your down, especially when you start sliding on the steeper slopes. You may want to take snow shoes.

        • Cap’n

          I’m so tired of walking on and over snow, we plan on just turning around whenever it gets too much. I figure we can get about 2-3 miles up the trail to the ridge, but we’ll see. Just a good place to hike in some shade and avoid the masses.

  • 102 so far. Feels like 104. To me it feels gross. WU station I trust.
    FWIW WU stations within a mile of me report anywhere from 108 to 96.

    I’ve tried putting on my big boy pants in this heat and I just can’t

    • alanstorm

      Know what u mean. I have a carving order that has to be done by tomorrow. After cutting, debarking then standing up the log, I’m ruined.
      Already drank a gallon of cold h20

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Damn, it is hot up in the Santa Clara valley. Is this one of the longest heat waves? Down here it is remarkably comfortable today; only 84F currently

    • Pfirman

      That spread is nuts. So is the temp.

  • AlTahoe

    Sacramento is supposed to get close to 110F today which would normally equal low to mid 90’s up here but we are sitting at 81F with a high of 83F forecast. It is weird that this heat wave hasn’t propagated up the hill. Even during normal stretches of summer weather, we will get to 90-93F on a couple of days. I still don’t know how the 99F in 1988 was able to happen up here.

  • John

    A friend of mine was riding up Mt. Diablo here in the East Bay this morning, and said he had to turn around because of the strong winds up there. Note, it was dead-calm here at elevation of about 675 in Orinda. And he reported temps of about 80 degrees.

    Here is a shot of the reading I got of the weather up there

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2b70d3095decf29d693eecc6a0a862643fdeb8bbab763f859e0fba10767a31ad.png

  • alanstorm

    Ok- NOAA site shows Willits hit 109° at 2pm.
    Ukiah was 107°
    Not sure how this is possible since Willits is 1500ft & Ukiah is around 500ft.
    Almost always hotter down there in the valleyby several degrees.
    No wonder I’m struggling

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Currently 108 in Clayton-showing up to 112 in the sun. So it’s umm rather hot today.I miss talking about how many feet of snow fell in the last 12 hours….

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    The San Joaquin & Imperial valleys are smoking:
    PORTERVILLE N/A 108 61 21 N12 29.69F HX 110
    BAKERSFIELD SUNNY 108 62 22 NW15G21 29.67F HX 110
    IMPERIAL AP MOSUNNY 108 64 24 SE15 29.63F HX 112
    EL CENTRO NAS SUNNY 107 60 21 SE10 29.64F HX 108

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

    June so far in Santa Maria. The highest temperature was 85F on June 19th and the lowest temperature was 45F on June 12th, exactly 1 week apart from each other

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9f487a819ddceb905d79d363e7bf322e9818bacc5f6bb84d3dc0ea25adc7fa3a.png

  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

    Good day for a car show in Pleasonton.

    https://twitter.com/DrewTumaABC7/status/878017076891238401

  • alanstorm

    Bucks Creek near Bucks Lake reporting 111° at 1900ft, while below in the Sac Valley at 400ft, Red Bluff is 106°.
    What’s the deal?

    • Thunderstorm

      Inversion layer.Have had one here by the bay all day. Trapped the humidity and temperature topped out at 88F. Currently 84F with NW winds up to 15MPH. Heat wave is over here already.

      • Apotropaic

        Where are you located?

        • Thunderstorm

          SF bay area by Fremont next to the bay. Currently 70F. Humidity 72%, bar 29.74 and rising.

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

    Dew points went from 70F at 1AM to 44F at 4PM today. Big swing in 14 hours.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d40365eab676e18df8ce3ca41540b4a738084f2636fd70d0760386639b78de6e.png

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      where?

      • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

        Fresno, I forgot to put the location

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          Miserable; no way around that particularly when dew points are in the 70’s while the temp is in the 90’s [even if it is midnight].

  • Cap’n

    January seems so far removed now as we roast under the sun. A couple shots across the street (January 12th) before things were completely buried in February.

    “The district issued 12 snow days this year, tying its record that was set back in the 1990s, school district spokesperson Kelli Twomey said. The school district in the 1980s had a then-record of 10 snow days.”

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2f4a7be5facc81420857d745d65f0520c46ff77866930fd72e2ce4540ae665b9.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8dd9e1fb14ba2489f83bc46ab6f00aa90e5d840cde828eb6e15832390df6aa06.jpg

    • inclinejj

      Was the record snow days in 1997?

      • Cap’n

        That’s a good guess. My neighbor talks about 93′ I think being a huge year too. I only posted that quote and the photos because I’ve got buddies still teaching and summer is in full swing. I got some classic photos this year, I might frame a few.

        • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

          93 was crazy too, big storms right around New Years. Many snowed in for days that year.

    • Leah Weiss (Olympic Valley)

      My favorite 2016/17 winter event was the guy who tried to drive his 18-wheeler up Old Donner Summit Road (closed at the time) to bypass the I-80 closure of Donner Pass. Truckee CHP had to deal with this mess. Oh, and the Sacramento guy on the opensnow site who asked if he could make it to North Tahoe in his two-wheel drive modified Honda with bald tires and a spoiler during every major winter storm!

      • Cap’n

        I live at the bottom of Old 40, it truly was a $&!$ show this year. I counted that it was closed a total of 15 days due to just too much snow. It was a fun year to ski/ride down the road.

      • Pfirman

        Next time please broaden your wrath by saying Valley guy.

  • Apotropaic

    Went for a ride in the Marin Headlands this afternoon. ‘Twas bright, warm, and cloudless, but very windy. I’ve noticed that in summer, the air is much hazier and visibility is lower than on crisp, cold winter mornings. Why is this?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2ca724130b09e311bad8f3837278201fb9066565f89d4a3b964cceed8ac45683.jpg

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Moisture & poor air quality, is my guess

      • Apotropaic

        visibility being lower when the air is moist makes sense, i guess. i do wonder why the air quality is worse in summer.

        other commenters below have mentioned an inversion layer in the bay area today, which could be trapping particulates. IIRC that happens in winter as well but it seems like the inversion layer is lower/thinner and it’s easier to get above it to clear, cold, dry air.

        • Pfirman

          This would make a nice life trajectory for anyone. Nice metaphor.

    • CHeden

      In the summer, there is almost always an inversion layer (to some extent) near the ocean. The inversion traps fine dust/pollutants/haze/water vapor near the surface.

      • Tuolumne

        It’s pervasive.

        Yet it’s always a pleasant surprise to see just how clear it can get sometime in November or December when interesting weather pushes out the inversion layer and brings in really clear air down to ground level. It’s especially striking late in the day when the sun is quite low yet the air remains crystal clear rather than getting a rosy or orange hazy glow. I need to get out more that time of the year and do some photography in the combination of great light and clear air!

    • PRCountyNative

      In the winter the wind is often offshore, around here (west coast). It’s crisp and cold because it came from the east! Colder than the ocean. The salt in the air and the swell haze has been blown out to sea, and capped at a low elevation, leaving clear air.

      In the summer the wind blows onshore a lot and whips up the wind waves and adds to the swell haze and puts more salt in the air and generally increases the marine layer. There’s no cold air pushing it down.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    all lakes other then Oroville CA in N CA and Perris lake in S CA are 90% full or above and we still have a tone of snow in the mts too go

    http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/getResGraphsMain.action

  • annette johnson

    Drove through Needles today. (Ya, I know…) and it was still cooking at 120F. The Colorado River cuts through the town, but then a few miles downstream it goes through Topock Gorge (a few pics of the start of it) which is surrounded by the Needle Mountains. There were a few ideas of where Needles got it’s name on the blog the other day, but you can see by the pinnacles that Needles was aptly named? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9b7237d89a585862a8a10b6da70e6971b2c2011c87ba9088e791a4f2e99eab20.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1d85a1bc816ec6f88b8b00396e5c3b25be2a66f9d8b30875af2f795a8448cf11.jpg

    • The desert is hauntingly beautiful. Only place I’ve been where it was dead quiet No wind no critters, nothing.

      • annette johnson

        It can be very quiet, but we do have our share of critters…you gotta stay one step ahead of ’em! Since we are pretty isolated from major cities, the stars at night are incredible. When my daughter was little we would lay on top of the trampoline and stare at the stars!

        • …oh, now I know why we call it the Milky Way 🙂

        • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

          I always forget about scorpions and those little prickly bushes out there. No bare feet outside!

    • Tuolumne

      Nice shots. 122 in aptly named Furnace Creek as I type this.

  • tomocean

    Not much thunderstorm activity in the Sierra today, except for a bit down near Mammoth. As I type this, this is happening just west of Mammoth Mountain (from summit cam). I love those Sierra summer storms!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/250b7b1230f80edb5011b8efd0a1757761a41a66d0705c250c5bdaba0dacd649.jpg

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Beautiful shot

      • Pfirman

        Cam capture rapture.

    • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

      Stunning!

  • Fairweathercactus

    The days are getting shorter. Everyone hang in their. The frost season will be back soon enough.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Frost, in SoCal?

      • Tuolumne

        In most spots, yes at one time or another. Check out the climate section of the Sunset Western Garden Book.

      • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

        Most places inland past the Santa Ana mountains and Chino hills get frost easily in winter

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          Yes, especially in low-lying areas or near riverbeds like Corona/ March AF base/ Woodland Hills.

    • Rainmaker (San Jose)

      I hate to bring the bad news, but days dont start getting shorter until the 24th. For San Jose, our longest days our 17th-24th (14:44). Actually its takes 33 days to lose just ten minutes of daylight as we swing back to winter. But things will speed up late July/August timeframe. 😛 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2c1f5df6891da238b8702553bdbd2de4f3021600f80207e82b946cdd8b6792f6.png

      • Charlie B

        I guess it is too bad that high temps don’t follow the sun. As we know, July is warmer than June despite marginally shorter daylight, and the dog days of August are hotter than June.

    • BethElDoradoHills

      Seems the days are longer than I remember when growig up – but our atmosphere does trap more sunlight these days from what i have read

      • Tuolumne

        Longer days and higher temperatures due to daylight savings time, that’s for sure. 😉

  • CHeden

    Finally back home after an extended stay in San Bruno..so I missed the “big heat” of 111F of three days ago. Today is much more reasonable with 102F, and with brisk/dry northerly winds, it’s not that bad. The intensity of the heat is certainly no surprise, since the rains and snow of a little over a week ago was a result of downstream troughing on the eastern flank of the same high that’s currently moving over Calif. If the high weren’t so strong and well placed, the trough would not have dug nearly as far south as it eventually did. Currently the high’s axis is moving/drifting east, and we are beginning to see increasing stratus and strong onshores on the backside of the high.
    As the high’s axis continues to shift east, HP will rebuild well offshore, with a cutoff low forming nearer the Cent/ Calif coast in between the two highs (i.e. relative low) Not exactly a classic summertime pattern, but certainly not one that is all that unusual to set up on the heels of a major heatwave. I remember many heat spells as a kid in San Bruno that was followed by 4-6 weeks of utter gloom.

    • Pfirman

      As if Hemingway wrote about weather, that post. Nobody dies though.

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    offshore flow strengthening, wind direction is shifting to NW-W over Bay Area. Sadly Redding still getting hit with hot air NE
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cff308de24f111038123519110c55e3f036427be23bcee03a9d45d9edcaf4f6a.png

    • Pfirman

      Looks a little like a Marlon Brando side shot…. a bit mummefied.

    • PRCountyNative

      Crazy circulation!

    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      Sea breeze ac is back in action. Very pleasant 70f now outside. Heat wave OVER!

      10 day fcst hi 70,s each day no complaints!!

    • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      I feel the change. Down to 75.