Quiet early summer conditions; thoughts on the season ahead

Filed in Uncategorized by on May 29, 2017 1,795 Comments

Quiet late spring conditions prevail; snowmelt and subtle warmth continues

Conditions have been unusually warm across most of California this spring, especially near the Pacific Ocean and in the south. (WRCC)

Conditions have been drier than average in the south and wetter than average in the Sierra Nevada this spring. (WRCC)

Weather-wise, conditions across most of California have been rather quiescent in recent weeks. Despite a record-wet Water Year to date across much of Northern California, it has been a dry (and warm) spring across Southern California. Some early season warmth (in some spots, marginally record-breaking) has allowed for an acceleration in Sierra Nevada snowmelt, and many snow-fed rivers in California and Nevada are currently running high and cold. So far, though, only minor flooding has resulted from snowpack melting in recent days. This is partly because a lot of the snow on the ground has already melted at lower elevations, despite a hefty upper-elevation snowpack–in fact, relatively warm temperatures led to lower elevation snowmelt even during the middle of winter earlier this year.

How does the 2017 snowpack compare to 1983? From Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, via http://cw3e.ucsd.edu/key-california-precipitation-index-hits-record-yearly-level-after-only-7-months

 

The rather striking graphic above demonstrates just how strong this elevational snowpack gradient has been in 2017–with near-record snow water equivalent comparable to 1983 at the highest elevations and dramatically less accumulation further down the slopes. While not as visually dramatic as the near-total lack of snow in 2015, 2017 featured at least the fifth consecutive winter where a below-average fraction of precipitation fell as snow (as opposed to rain). A flurry of recent research strongly suggests that recent observations like these are indeed linked to California’s long-term warming trend–and that snowpack losses are expected to accelerate further over the next few decades.

 

Typical early-summer conditions likely to persist across California

At the moment, there is multi-model ensemble agreement that relatively quiet conditions are likely to continue across California for the next couple of weeks. This is not too surprising, as late May/early June is historically one of the most stable periods of the year across most of the state, as the winter rainy season has fully tapered off and the peak of the summer heat wave and “monsoonal surge” season has yet to begin. There is, however, a fair bit of agreement that conditions will continue to be at least somewhat warmer than average across most of the state, especially in the north (and with the exception of coastal Southern California, where persistent a “June Gloom” marine layer will keep things cool). No big heatwaves are currently on the horizon, but persistent warmth will keep snowmelt going at a fairly rapid pace.

The next couple of weeks are likely to be fairly quiet, though probably warmer than average (particularly in the north). (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

 

Some thoughts regarding the coming summer and beyond

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (which does, in fact, exhibit pretty good predictive skill for summer temperatures in the American West) is presently suggesting a high likelihood of a warmer-than-average summer in California (and, indeed, most of the Northern Hemisphere). Much of this is likely a product of temperatures in the subtropical Pacific Ocean, which remain warmer than average for this time of year. While this doesn’t necessarily portend more extreme heatwaves than usual, the multi-model mean also suggest that anomalous warmth will persist over California during the late summer and early autumn–a time when coastal heatwaves are far more likely. So while a hearty marine layer may keep things comfortably cool in the coming weeks, more substantial heat may be on tap later in the summer.

The NMME is suggesting that anomalous warmth may persist over much of the Southwest this summer. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

And what’s going on in the tropical Pacific Ocean? Well, as we start to emerge from the Spring Predictability Barrier, the coupled ocean-atmosphere have indeed changed their tune. While most models were calling fairly aggressively for a significant “traditional’ (i.e. east-centered) El Niño event by late summer and autumn, they’re now hinting at warm event centered in the Central Pacific (closer to an El Niño Modoki). It’s still too early to say with any confidence how things are going to evolve this summer, but it’s worth noting that from a California perspective it matters a great deal where the region of maximum tropical warming is located. I’ll continue to revisit developments in the tropical Pacific through the summer.

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    • weathergeek100

      Yup. NWS San Diego also mentioned the possibility of Palm Springs reaching (or exceeding!) it’s all time high of 123 this weekend.

      A couple of disturbing trends I’ve noticed about our climate the past several years during summertime- 1) Desert temps seem to be getting hotter overall (just look at Phoenix, it’s average July high is around 105 or so but high temps are consistently around 108-ish with heat waves resulting in 112-115+) and 2) the lack of upwelling in the inner coastal waters of Southern CA. SSTs around this region have been reaching the low 70s for long periods of time every year the past few years, and as of yesterday are already averaging at 68 and it’s still mid-June.

      Combine this with what seems like dryer winters overall since the year 2000 (yeah, not just our recent drought but before that, too) and you really see the evidence of climate change.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    The chance for a monthly cool anomaly is very unlikely now that prolonged ridging is forecast. NWS_LA is forecasting 90’s through the 7 day period for my area of LA

    Yesterday: 88/ 62

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Anybody care to share their hypothesis or educated guess on why this winter was so wet? Here is my hypothesis: Warmer than average bands of water extended from near Hawaii to just of the coast of California and to the coasts of Baja California. This in which caused repeated AR’s originating from the tropics and mid latitudes to impact Northern California through the second half of winter from January to February. This bands in general caused above precipitation and temps for the Winter 2016-2017 for most parts part of California.

    • AlTahoe

      It was all about the mega block that setup in December over Alaska and kept reforming in close to the same position. Warm moisture kept getting squeezed underneath it.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        Add that to my hypothesis too

    • CHeden

      Just focus on the cause and effects that set up a screaming low level jet.
      The related hemispheric systems/circulations that set up were anomalously placed and persistent, which strongly suggests some kind of closed-loop/reinforcing pattern between the jet and the main circulations were present. In particular, recurring HP over/near the Bering Sea seemed to be related to both the east Pac/troughiness and undercutting jet. The main question then is what caused the B.S. HP to set-up where it did? IMHO, Arctic conditions, especially sea ice extent and the early onset of frozen precip in NE Asia are the most likely contributors to the HP setting up where it did, and as both a direct and indirect result, Calif got plowed by the jet (i.e. AR’s).

    • inclinejj

      Great winter are you Bobby?

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Why didn’t that happen in 2015?

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        Likely the HP was farther east and south compared to this year where the HP was near the Bering Sea and Alaska

  • Apollo

    WOW! This flew/blown by the onshore https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6f736c4af1ff4237b77f8f9387e3d8433257bb6e460919a12ce8b05b37802675.jpg wind picking up https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c7c85dbaedbe68f047cceddd849f149b0d5824709ce6033776b4912f3641c680.jpg right over my house and almost, almost could of turned out bad. Pilot landed safely but a hard landing in a residential erea. Good job!

    • Nathan

      Yikes. Balloons terrify me.

      • Apollo

        The pilot must of read the forcast and it was a go at the time. Probly an unexpected early onshore breeze picked up earlier than it was forecasted. Surprisingly the passagers were calm. No panicking voices.

    • Bombillo1

      Looks like a scene out of the movie Up..

  • alanstorm

    Ukiah, interior Mendocino Co forecast:

    Sun- 106°
    Mon- 104°
    Tues- 105°
    Wed- 106°
    Thurs- 106°

    That’s a bit much if you ask me

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      San Carlos

      Sun- 93 Fahrenheit
      Mon- 88 Fahrenheit
      Tues- 90 Fahrenheit
      Wed- 88 Fahrenheit
      Thurs- 89 Fahrenheit
      Forecast has gotten much warmer, was forecasted to hit high 80s only 1 day!

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Ouch
      I’ve driven south on 101 out of Humboldt county not expecting the heat that can hit you in Ukiah

      • Pfirman

        Don’t forget Cloverdale. Spent many a summer near there. At least the nights are cool there, unlike interior valleys.

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          Yes, similar to Paso Robles where days are quite hot but by midnight things have cooled down nicely and you need a blanket by early morning.

        • PRCountyNative

          Good for the grapes!

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Yikes. Can we name this for what it is?

      Global COOKING!

  • Thunderstorm

    Me thinks that the big heat wave does not start till Saturday or Sunday. Four corners high still stationary. You can see the the circulation around the high on visible satellite. Also huge cloud deck in Pacific continues to sag to the south. Raining in far NW California. Cloud deck needs to lift to the north!!

    • Bombillo1

      Cloudy and much cooler than I expected here. Altostratus initially but now stratus with some darker bellies. I believe ugly heat is coming but I like to remember the great scene in Lawrence of Arabia when T. E. Lawrence reminds Ali Sherif (Omar Sharif character), when talking about preordination, that “nothing is written”. 83 klicks N of Redding.

  • Upcoming heatwave across Southwest will be very intense and likely record breaking across the interior. Already very hot regions (SE CA deserts and S AZ deserts) could approach or exceed all-time record highs over the coming week, and those records are up in 118-123F territory! Most of California won’t be quite that hot, but daily June records will likely be broken in many places away from the immediate coastline. As is typical with early season heatwaves, places within about 5-10 miles of the Pacific will remain much cooler than inland valleys–and records are unlikely to be reached in the coastal belt.

    I’ll probably have a blog update tomorrow given the potential for a prolonged, widespread, and record-breaking heatwave.

    • Dan weather maniac

      106 – 115 for the highs in Tucson, my town as a kid, over the next 10 days. I believe 117 is the all time hi there.

      93 forecast for orinda on Sunday, pretty hot. Pool weather!

      • Charlie B

        I just checked. On June 26, 1990, both Phoenix and Tucson set their all time high temperature records, with 122 and 117, respectively. The all time high, of course, was recorded during the opening night showing of Cheech and Chong’s movie, Up in Smoke.

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          1990 was a long very warm spring & summer into October. People must have been crying “Uncle, I give up”

        • Dan weather maniac

          Wow thanks for checking, and validating that my memory is still good!!!

          Hopefully after this furnace death blast the monsoon kicks into overdrive for the desert folks here.

    • molbiol

      NWS Phoenix forecaster sound scared:

      Taking a look at the weather pattern during our 10 hottest days
      since 1948 for Phoenix, on average, 500 mb heights were around
      597 dm and 700/850 mb temps were near 15/31 degrees respectively.
      Therefore, there is absolutely no doubt we will be near all time
      highs with this heat wave, with the hottest and most dangerous
      temperatures expected Monday through Wednesday. These
      unseasonably hot temperatures will bring moderate to high, and
      locally very high, heat risk to the region. This type of heat
      should be taken extremely serious!

      • matthew

        The danger is really in the power grid – hope it stays up or else people are going to suffer.

      • annette johnson

        The Phoenix news stations and newspapers have been doing a good job with a heads up on this heatwave. For the most part Arizonan’s are pretty good about staying safe. I can guarantee you though that there will be some Phoenix area mountain rescues next week from people that still insist on getting their daily run or hike up the mountain in.

        • molbiol

          As a (former) runner, I know how dangerous physical activity in those conditions are. A smart athlete needs to know his/her limits and not do anything stupid (i.e go on a 10 mile run in the middle of nowhere when the temp is 110+). I guarantee someone will loose their life next week; usually someone with a pre-existing medical issue who tries to do something outdoors

          • annette johnson

            My heart also goes out to the homeless and animals that are forced to live outside without any shade.

  • Charlie B

    Yesterday I mentioned that in 1961, Sacramento hit 113. That was quite a heatwave. San Jose set its all time high of 114. On June 15, 1961, Sacramento hit 115, which was and still is its all time record. It is interesting that those records were set in June and indeed before the first day of summer.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Does anyone miss the marine layer? I sure do.

    • PRCountyNative

      Nope

  • Charlie B

    Why is it that for a great many places in California, their all time high temperature records were set decades ago? LA is an exception (2010 at 113). Even Palm Springs set its record of 123 (maybe it will fall next week??) in 1995. Eureka 87(1993); San Francisco 103 (1988 and 1990); San Diego 111 (1963 tied in 2010 on the same day LA set its record); Fresno 115 (1905); Bakersfield 118 (1908); Indio 125 (1905) and of course, Death Valley 134 (1913). One would think that there would be a slew or recent records, but there aren’t (at major places with long records). Indeed, I don’t think Death Valley has ever exceeded 130 since its record setting day. I am talking about all time highs, not daily highs.

    • mattzweck

      can’t remember what year it was but it got up to 125 here in the high desert Lancaster area. and even at night u had to wear shoes because the sidewalks would burn your feet.

      • molbiol

        I think you mean 115. It has never gotten up to 125 in Lancaster since records were kept

      • Charlie B

        115 on June 30, 2013. WRCC records from 1945-72 show an all time high of 114 in 1960.

      • I’d be worried about any asphalt become a temporary tar pit.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      There were an abundance of heat waves in the 1990’s and long periods of heat

      • Apollo

        Anybody feeling a little nervous that the DWP my have there hands full next week?

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          I hate having to run A/C so early in the summer

          • Pfirman

            First world problem, eh?

        • molbiol

          A large number of Californians are on individual Solar which helps quite a bit

    • molbiol

      Weather station locations change over time which may effect temperatures. Also, methods of recording temperature have improved the since the early 1900s. here is an example:

      http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/highest-recorded-temperature

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Around 2012-2014 I was in Redding and it was 115 one day and 116 the next. And then around 2008-2012 I was in Ashland, Oregon and it was 108-112 and then came home to the same temps on the Penninsula! There must have been some cities that broke all time temp records in these two heatwaves

      • AlTahoe

        In 2013 I drove through Redding on my way to Whistler during that heatwave and my truck said 122F when we left Costco. I believe that heatwave fell on the same days as the infamous 1988 heatwave which was hotter by a degree or two.

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          Just did a search and found it was the 1st or 2nd of July

      • thebigweasel

        I remember in the 90s I was driving around Mount Shasta, and it was plenty hot–102. I tuned in to a Redding station to see how bad it was there. This was in the days when radio stations still had live disc jockey and discussed local events. One woman called in to the station I was tuned to to report it was “117 on her back porch, but with the wind chill factor it only feels like 115”.

    • Tuolumne

      The 134-degree “record” at Death Valley has been seriously questioned. Stay turned for further developments and don’t be surprised it it’s dethroned at some point.

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/10/25/new-analysis-shreds-claim-that-death-valley-recorded-earths-hottest-temperature-in-1913/?utm_term=.101929354d89

  • molbiol
    • happ [Los Angeles]

      WoW I didn’t know that Iran could get so humid!

    • Idaho Native

      Too bad that article is from July 31st, 2015…

      • molbiol

        Yes, I know. My point is that, compared to the U.S., temps in locales along the Persian gulf are notorious for extreme heat AND high humidity to a degree not seen even in the southeast U.S.

    • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

      I agree that people need to be shown how it negatively effects there own lives. Too often, when pointing to the perils of climate change, scientists and the press point the most extreme examples. Like islands falling below sea level in the Pacific, Miami losing its beaches, stronger hurricanes, etc. None of those things are going to affect Joe Shmo in Iowa. In fact, the guy in Iowa already thinks that his own livelihood could be at risk by supporting efforts to curb/slow climate change.

      The article Daniel links to gives the following example:

      “From 1981 to 2002, for example, it’s estimated that warming temperatures were responsible for an average of $5 billion worth of wheat, maize, and barley losses each year around the world. These crop losses often happen in poor countries where people already live on a few dollars a day. When the price of food doubles, families go hungry.”

      I would argue that if the world does not care enough to intervene/demand action when genocide is occurring (Darfur, Rwanda, Syria), then why would they act when those populations are feeling the negative effects of climate change?

      I think it goes down to differences in people. Some people will act if they see that humans in general could be affected by something. For others, they are not affected until it negatively effects there city, there neighborhood, there family.

      • matthew

        The root of the problem IMO is that many people simply cannot intellectually grapple with something this complex unless the impact is right there kicking them in the teeth. And even though this is unfolding rapidly in geologic terms, the individual impact cannot be felt/seen/measured. And as you note, the first impacts are being felt in the third world. It will be felt in a bigly way in about 1 more generation, and boy are they going to be pissed at us.

        The bright side is that I believe that the “denial” rate in the US is now below 40%. Since 30% of our population will never believe anything that isn’t spoon fed to them by their favorite (left or right) propaganda outlet then we are at or close to having enough public support to force action. This message needs to get through to our legislators.

        • Cap’n

          “Unless it was about to cause you bodily harm, rot your rhubarb on the stalk, or carry off your children, weather ought either to be celebrated or ignored.”

          Tom Robbins

  • Howard Goodman

    All this talk about heat has me sweating this is from a couple of minutes ago on my front porch
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eb91980e6fbf4736ef7b50f26be0a61ca8355c9e94a1034c4c87846c4935c6c6.jpg

    • TheNothing

      I eat hammers and spit nails, 100 plus be damned, I will work in whatever nature throws at me.

      • Howard Goodman

        Not me it wears me out I’m not that tough anymore of course next month I’ll be 68 so that may have something to do with it

        • Pfirman

          Wait until you go from sexa to septua…genarian wise.

          • Bombillo1

            I’ll wait as long as I can.

      • Bombillo1

        If you see me comin’, better step aside
        A lotta men didn’t, a lotta men died
        One fist of iron, the other of steel
        If the right one don’t a-get you, then the left one will

        You load sixteen tons, what do you get?
        Another day older and deeper in debt
        Saint Peter don’t you call me ’cause I can’t go
        I owe my soul to the company store

        16 tons
        Tennessee Earnie Ford

  • Wow. 12z ECMWF really goes nuts with heat next week across interior SW, including Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. Multiple days at or above 110 degrees possible across much of Sac Valley, and southern SJ might hit 115! 12z deterministic even cranked out a 124 degree reading near Phoenix next week (!).

    Meanwhile, the coastal plain will get pretty hot, but not exceptionally so. It’s really the inland areas that are going to experience a prolonged and dangerous heatwave over the next 10 days.

    Update tomorrow.

    • Nathan

      I keep expecting these runs to start dialing it back.. but they’re just getting worse and worse.

      • DelMarSD

        Heat waves being dialed back is soooo 2016.

      • Pfirman

        The only thing you can count on being dialed back is the money to fund the programs that we count on for predictions.

        • Nathan

          GOOD ONE

    • alanstorm

      Geez. What’s the deal? Is this intensity due to the position of the HIGH directly over California as opposed to the
      4-corners?

  • DelMarSD

    NWS SD:

    “The second, more intense phase of the heat wave from Monday
    to Wednesday is now looking to be even hotter than previously
    forecast with temperatures likely to break records and may even
    approach all time record highs regardless of the date in a few
    locations.

    The EC continues to be the stronger, further north with the upper
    high center over Central Arizona and we are favoring that model
    for it`s consistency.”

    Feels like 2015… The year when every heat wave was extended or came in more intense than forecast. Unlike, say, the troughy summer of 2016, when the opposite seemed to occur (at least here).

  • Matthew Nelson

    On Fathers day last year I saw 114F here in and around Temecula. That was extraordinarily hot, I hope that doesn’t happen again.

    • Bombillo1

      I wouldn’t take the under on that one. Get to the ocean ASAP.

  • Fairweathercactus

    I will never forget that microburst we had in June 2006 heatwave. It was around 2-3 in the morning and what was left of a dieing thunderstorm brought distant lightning and just a heavy little cell moved right over the area. I thought their was an earthquake but it was just a huge burst of wind. I didn’t get a reading but it had to have been a good 40-45 MPH gust.

  • Cap’n
    • TheNothing

      That’s me on a good day.

    • Craig Matthews

      ….gotta keep those melons cool this Father’s Day.

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)
    • thebigweasel

      Interesting. Looks like the Greenland “cold blob” has moved some 1500 miles SSW and now resides off Nova Scotia. Does that signify for anything?

      • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

        Compared to June 15th, 2015. SST anomalies were warmer in California.

        http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.6.15.2015.gif

      • It might have to do with freshwater ice melt from Greenland. If the amount of freshwater is large enough it could slow down the MOC.

        • Bombillo1

          This would be the inception of the melt season for those guys. More likely to be an upwelling/wind causing this no?

          • Pleistocene and Dryas from rapid fresh water ice melt into AMOC. I need one of those AC movie theatres now

          • Bombillo1

            Yes. May I recommend Captain Underpants or Baywatch…

          • Been there done that. However if A/C is really turned up maybe a second go round with Baywatch

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Local ocean temps from LA to San Diego are running between 65-70F

  • Fairweathercactus

    I wonder if this will mean like in 2006 when we had a hot summer January will be ice cold!

    • DelMarSD

      Wasn’t summer of 2006 also unusually active monsoon-wise?

      • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

        It seems like from 2012-2015 were active monsoon seasons

      • Chris

        Yes! We had a 4 day heat wave with a dew point as high as 72 (highest I’ve ever recorded) and temps being 110, 111, 114, 113 with a thunderstorm occurring over Henry Coe Park while it was 114 degrees!
        This is for Morgan Hill

        • Craig Matthews

          I remember a pretty hefty cell developing over the Santa Lucias during the peak of that heat wave as well. On the Arroyo Seco RAWS, the station showed a temp of 114, then in a 15min span, showed .12″ of rain and temp dropped to upper 70’s before climbing back up to 110 again an hour later. Side note….I saw this posted on Twitter, retweeted from Steve Paulsen “I think the winter of 2016-17 is FINALLY over” ;)) Was that comment from you?

          • Chris

            Ha! That was my quote ?

          • Craig Matthews

            Thought so, so your an official weather observer….that is way cool!

          • Chris

            Well, not “official”, but I have records going back to 1983 ?
            Morgan Hill doesn’t keep records.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        It sure was ;).

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    On my flight back from a Denver I noticed this plume of smoke southwest of Mammoth which looked decently large. Quite weird to see a wildfire 10 miles away from dozens of feet of snow. The air was quite hazy as seen in the photos.https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/baa40c333a7053023434211f30331eed0f5c9f3d789f0f07985ea61e39d967b2.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fd3d0a82caaf9c63b0458f414a66477d07c4b09137061b580e3157ecb916f429.jpg

    • matthew

      Prescribed burn? There have been several around Truckee this spring.

  • El Toro

    Picky Pea is calling for near 115 in San Jose/Valley in coming days. Is this possible?

  • Nate

    Scientists at the UC Berkeley Seismo Lab just published a really interesting paper linking California climate and earthquakes using historical seismicity and GPS data. The basic idea of this is that the state’s drastic seasonal precipitation variability causes fluctuations in stress loading on faults, resulting in a slight increase in seismicity during the dry season, as the crust rebounds from the weight of the winter’s rain and snow.

    Keep in mind, this paper is not meant to validate the myth of earthquake weather as it “has nothing to do with the daily weather but more with the long term annual precipitation patterns.” Most of the time, earthquake weather is viewed as the weather during the last major quake–in the Bay Area’s case, warm and muggy.

    From the paper:
    “The seasonal loading analysis reveals earthquakes occurring more frequently during stress conditions that favor earthquake rupture. We infer that California seismicity rates are modestly modulated by natural hydrological loading cycles.”

    http://earthquakes.berkeley.edu/blog/2017/06/15/earthquakes-and-the-rainfall-cycle.html

    http://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6343/1161.full

    • Bombillo1

      Well, we certainly are going to give this hypothesis a good test after this year’s loading. They have about 4 months to ring up a big one, or go back to the drawing board.

    • Fascinating! Though keep in mind this most directly relates to “micro-quakes,” or earthquakes that are too small to be perceptible.

      The authors of the original paper do suggest that there may be a modest influence upon the likelihood of larger quakes due to variations in groundwater. But even here, it likely means that a fault that was “ready to go” might rupture slightly sooner after lots of precipitation–not that said hydrological changes can actually trigger quakes that would not have happened otherwise.

    • K?ros

      There also has been some research that suggests hydraulic mining for gold in California in the late 1800’s caused seasonal upticks in earthquakes from the impact of the increased sediment loads washed downstream into the bays which led to increased stress on the faults.

      https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FPL00001268

  • Bombillo1

    There is a compounding issue that accompanies this nascent heat wave that deserves mentioning. This year’s movie fare is so godawful that any attempt at relief in an air conditioned theater may be lethal.

    • Pfirman

      Lethal is a form of relief, I suppose, though I am not familiar with it.

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    well i was wrong, NWS has revised the forecast and replaced mid 80’s with mid 90’s next week, showing a prolonged heatwave past this weekend. And sunday is supposed to be 99, from 93 earlier. It just gets worse and worse

    • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

      Temperatures are going to be around 80F everyday in Santa Maria. The seabreeze is preventing the coastal areas from being very hot this time.

  • weathergeek100

    How interesting. NWS Sacramento mentions a muggy touch to the airmass this weekend due to ‘higher TPW air’. What does TPW stand for? They mention dew points in the 50s despite adiabatic warming from northerly winds.

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=STO&issuedby=STO&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

    • Pfirman

      If it isn’t Total Precipitable Water, then I give up.

      • weathergeek100

        Oh of course! How could I not know that? We’ve been dealing with record amounts of total precipitable water all winter with those ARs.

    • Bombillo1

      Confirmed. Here in N Shasta county things have gotten decidedly muggy, humidity has shot up. A little more heat and we’re in Tupelo, Mississippi.

      • Tuolumne

        Time to introduce gators and snapping turtles to your ranch ponds and creeks. 😉

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Interesting to hear that research is being done by NOAA on what caused this winter to be so wet in California. Can’t wait for the research to be finalized and published and to see the extensive detail and evidence they put into it.

    • redlands

      not all areas had a killer wet season

      • …..so wet in (San Carlos up a few hundred feet) California. LOL. I’d rather see research on how last year can improve monthly and seasonal modeling.

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          The research likely wnd sadly won’t be funded so at least be happy that there studying what caused last year to be so wet so they could possibly better forecast simliar winter setups in the future

  • Craig Matthews

    Spectacular sunset up in Siskiyou County this evening. Some lenticulars in the mix https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b578372abe3f357b67f3e11caa601f4a307526b63d90e0b8bfec585e029743f6.jpg

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Yep, that’s a keeper. I’ve been collecting a lot of these images since I came here. Have a nice go-to folder for my desktop backgrounds. I’ll definitely use this one.

      Here’s one of my favorites from February, when So. Cal got hammered by multiple inches of rain. Look at that poor guy getting soaked to the bone! Ahhh, seemed like so long ago –

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2938129c93cb1f3ecd290873f9cc4dc718b524f0aaee96979c3a7802b751657f.jpg

      • Craig Matthews

        Poor guy. That reminds me of being underneath central valley thunderstorms with the insane sheets of rain, then having my truck stall so I had to get out and give it a puushh…got soaked to the bone!

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    I know a few folks have already talked about it, but the longest days of the year are coming up and this sun is going to be relentlessly beating down on us. Worst timing for an extended heat wave

    • Craig Matthews

      Yeah heatwaves in June can be the worst for that reason, as well as less nighttime(dark) hours for the cooling off at night..combined with the compressional heating factor under this beast ridge. Stay outta the sun!

  • Hardcort

    The Western States 100 runs next Saturday, Squaw Valley to Auburn and they just announced on Twitter ‘No snow route’. I’m much surprised as I didn’t think the aid station crews would be able to access the high country aid stations at mile 11 and 16. This is still going to take the runners through snow but it looks like they might dodge a bullet with regards to heat.

    • Howard Goodman

      I’ve done that trail from Forest Hill to Soda Spring and back on a Dirtbike couldn’t imagine running it , you’d have to be really tough

      • Hardcort

        You have to be mentally tough but sometimes that’s not enough and your world falls apart during the race. When that happens, you have to set your mind free and run on stupid. Stupid can get you a long ways in that kind of race.

        • tomocean

          I’ve run quite a few ultamarathons and your mind definitely has as much to do with your success as your body. I always puke my guts out at mile 50 and then I’m usually good to go for the next 50 miles.

          • So when you hit a wall, you just puke and that gets you over it? I’d need to have an IV station like they do with race cars when they need more fuel. UM is well, ultrasofaroutofmyendurancelevel.

          • tomocean

            The stomach normally settles down after a “reset”. You need a ridiculous amount of calories for the really mountainous ones (upwards of 12,000). I normally hallucinate very vividly during the last portion.
            My favorite was Hardrock in the San Juan mountains of Colorado. 33K feet of elevation gain and loss at an average elevation around 11K feet.

          • What was your favorite hallucination? BTW Pike’s Peak gives me a headache and a weird feeling

          • tomocean

            My favorite was seeing a bear riding on a bicycle. The worst was seeing what I thought was an aid station morph back into a grove of trees (which they actually were in reality).

          • Howard Goodman

            Spent 5 days up in the San Juan’s when over all the high passes but again on a dirtbike https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0f2b75c980c14652bfeb47df582873a6c1858091fe0ab74c96aab91c45896025.jpg

  • Valkyrie
    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Incredible. A picture is worth 120″ of snow!

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Already 75F in nearby San Rafael Hills. Summers are getting hotter per Climate-Central
    Yesterday: 90/ 63
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ee847b5fa883e829cd3e1d1af06cd5863865d7491ecda20a6302753c936d6ecd.jpg

  • BigBearHiking

    Daniel, is there a way to make a one time payment to support you instead of a monthly payment? I did not see that option

  • Fairweathercactus

    Models picking up on a touch of moisture mostly upper lever but it is interesting.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    WOW! Currently there is PWATS through Central and Northern California above 1. The highest PWATS are currently over far Northern California and the Bay Area peaking around 1.25-1.5. PWATS look to stay at or just above 1 through 90 hours of the GFS. Boomer action?

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
  • John Curtis

    Newsflash:

    Monster El Niño on its way. Expect great flooding in Southern California in 2017-2018. How do I know? Because I do.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      LMAO. You might have overdone yourself on that monster El Nino, but you are the infamous John Curtis

    • Justin Acharya

      I would be shocked if we get an El Nino this year let alone a monster one. Would have to be a late developer like 8283 and even then I think we are behind that. However I remember reading some website back before the big 2015 2016 on email that it was just a precursor to the real big boy for 2018. At the time they also called for a very weak La Nina after the 2016 El Nino. It was a link off a Twitter so I can’t seem to find it.

      Hopefully it wasn’t Kenny strawn.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      All hail the great King Curtis! All knowing, decorated, wise, handsome, insightful, and ahem, humble before the weather Gods who rule his kingdom.

      • Bombillo1

        Well, one out of 5 anyhow.

    • Define “monster’. 🙂 Then I may put a few cents in your hat!
      AFA SoCal they are first anxiously awaiting their annual monster LA Basin monsoon season. LOL

    • Awesome!

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)
  • Bombillo1

    Modeling deserves credit for this one. 13 days ago, at the beginning of a 5 day run of exceptional cold, this heat wave was predicted, more or less. I looked at the upper air maps at the time and am impressed how this heat wave was teased out of that mess.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      “Cape” Mendocino or Point Conception? A buoy south of Morro bay has SST of 52F. That is cold water!

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        This will certainly be interesting leading into next month.

      • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

        The SST’s off the Baja cape have been colder than normal over the last month or so due to up-welling from the California current that trended further south off Baja because of the northerly gales blowing down the coast during late spring.

      • Point…thanks for ‘pointing’ that out! 🙂

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      There’s a pool of cool water several hundred miles south of San Diego on the Davidson current. Is it moving our way?

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    The visible satellite for the West Coast shows an incredibly strong Pacific jet north of California. Places around Portland have received 3-5″. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5dfe8990a5fda835f1492ae21f75943f90a01291f11cbe63ce3b62fca900dd38.jpg

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Dew points are pretty good w/ light wind. I hope we don’t have a bad fire season this year. This heat doesn’t help.

  • happ [Los Angeles]
  • Howard Goodman
  • Howard Goodman

    55 this morning , that’s the warmest it’s been in the morning

  • Howard Goodman
    • Cap’n

      There’s a new article up, this is a wasteland now.