Another storm for rain-weary California this week, then a break, then…yet more storms to come.

Filed in Uncategorized by on February 7, 2017 6,973 Comments

Remarkable California wet spell continues

The Thursday storm will drop additional heavy rainfall over Northern California, especially in the Sierra Nevada and foothills. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

This will be a brief update due to time constraints, but given the widespread and somewhat more significant than anticipated storm impacts across Northern California today, the next storm bearing down on the state bears close watching. An intense atmospheric river brought widespread heavy rain and strong winds to much of NorCal early this morning, causing widespread flooding of streams, smaller rivers, and coastal areas (especially near the Bay Area). Observed flooding and other storm impacts were more severe than initially anticipated–partly because the frontal structure (and therefore rainfall rates) were a bit more impressive than expected, but also because soils throughout the region have now reached total saturation (and, in some cases, “supersaturation”). Thus, virtually all rainfall at this point is generating rapid runoff and flowing into bodies of water that are already experiencing residually high flows. Additionally, the threat of both smaller mudslides and deeper landslides is now quite high across much of California–as evidenced by numerous road closures in recent days.

Animation showing the reinvigorated “Pineapple Express” storm set to make landfall Thursday. (NCEP via UCSD)

After one of the wettest starts to the rainy season on record, California’s water capture and conveyance infrastructure is now under considerable strain. In addition to the longstanding threat of levee failures in the Delta (and elsewhere) under high flow conditions, the concrete spillway on the Oroville Dam in Butte County has apparently been compromised by erosion due to controlled high-flow releases this morning. While this damage does not threaten the integrity of the dam itself, the spillway is currently unusable–which prevents dam operators from releasing enough water to counterbalance the very high inflows that are expected to continue for at least the next 72 hours. The California Department of Water Resources is confident that existing contingency measures will be sufficient to prevent bigger problems in the short term, but with more heavy precipitation on the horizon in the 7-10+ day period, this will be a development to watch closely in the coming days.

 

Reinvigorated “Pineapple Express” on Thursday; more flooding concerns

Another strong surface cyclone off the coast of California will position itself in a manner that will act to “resurrect” the existing plume of subtropical moisture transport initiated by the storm earlier today. Thus, a reinvigorated warm and very moist atmospheric river will move across northern California on Thursday–bringing another threat of very heavy rainfall (especially in the mountains and foothills). Cumulative totals in most urban areas will not be enormous–likely on the order of an inch or two–but rainfall rates could be quite high for a time along with strong winds. Flash flooding and urban flooding is again likely in parts of the Bay Area and Sacramento Valley, and it is possible that flood impacts could again be elevated above what would usually be expected from this strong (but not particularly extreme) storm. It is worth noting that the watersheds that drain into the Oroville Dam are expected to see 6-7+ inches of additional rainfall between now and early Friday. Southern California will largely escape any flood concerns with the Thursday system, although light to moderate rainfall may linger into Friday. Also of note: high snow levels, and warm rain at relatively high elevations in the Sierra Nevada, could cause additional problems with local flooding and even roof collapses as water-laden snow accumulates.

 

Strong multi-model agreement on brief break, then return to (very?) wet pattern in 7-10 days

Another impressive extension of the Pacific jet will be aimed squarely at California by mid-February. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

By the weekend, all of California will experience a much-needed respite from the deluge. In fact, a 5-7 day dry spell is looking pretty likely at the moment. But by mid-February, there is already remarkably strong multi-model agreement that a wet (and perhaps very wet) pattern will resume across California, and this time the entire state from San Diego to Eureka will probably get soaked. Yet another impressive eastward extension of the Pacific jet stream will probably bring the storm track right to our doorstep in that timeframe, and at this very early juncture it looks like there could be the potential for strong wind events in addition to heavy rainfall events. That would most likely raise the spectre of significant flood concerns once again.

Whew.

Many of you are probably wondering: why, exactly, is California experiencing such an extraordinarily (and unexpectedly) wet winter? Well, that’s a question for another blog post–partly due to time constraints, but also because the answer is not immediately obvious. Once things calm down a bit later this year, I’ll revisit this topic (and perhaps there will be some new research available to discuss at that point). In the meantime, I’ll still be providing real-time updates on Twitter.

 

 

 

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  • Does anyone know why so many Hi-res models are showing the front quickly break down as it moves east of LA? Is this a mistake on the models, or is there something weakening the front as it moves east.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      After it takes on a negative tilt it stalls and dumps on SB, Ventura & LA Counties, then the center of circulation dives South towards Baja. This is why the front doesn’t sweep across the area from West to East. The rain band then wraps moisture into the area from the SE around the circulation before the system moves into NW Mexico.

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ebadbd2790a1c695b261b3534ac5f17b19d0b4d04f5e300e52ae46a6a2b5ceb7.gif

      • I’m guessing the timing of the tilting of the low is highly variable? So this thing could really stall anywhere give or take 50 miles.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          That’s what I’m thinking. Models cannot be that precise. This thing could wobble 50 miles in any direction, which could change the outcome dramatically for a given location. I think all of SoCal coasts, valleys and Mtns are going to get heavy rain, but the “bullseye” location could shift a bit. I think the big winner will be Santa Barbara/Ventura area, but everyone will get something.

          • Sokafriend

            I’ll be thrilled if our total doesn’t exceed the current forecast of 1.61. The winds will wreak plenty of havoc and without a doubt, our beaches are going to be carried out to sea again. .

          • Scap

            I think the topography has a lot to do with it where the same areas always do well even if the storm does move. Unless it moves from Sonora to Jamestown.

      • Sokafriend

        And so far, it looks like it is mercifully why most of the rain south of Laguna, maybe Oceanside, will fall over the coastal waters before the low sets up off the coast of central Northern Baja in the Ag region that grows tons of exported berries and baby carrots… Yay. Also looks like it’s going to snow again over San Pedro Martir.

  • Tyler Price (Monterey/Seaside)

    So as tempted as I am to drive down to SoCal on Friday.. I’ve come to the final decision that I will drive down to Big Sur on Friday to experince the storm there!! Not too far of a drive, less costly, and will still get some good torrential rain! Not to mention it’s beautiful there!

    • Enjoy! We’ll miss your valley reports, though!

    • Admode (Susanville)

      Big Sur is pretty sick.

    • Crank Tango

      Be careful– Watch out for falling rocks!

    • Bombillo1

      Take a football helmet, per Crank’s warning.

      • Crank Tango

        Yeah I made the mistake of driving down from MRY to LA the long way in a rainstorm in 2004. Soft top jeep, those rocks were scary.
        I lived in AZ at the time so I wanted to see Big Sur again no matter what. So dumb.

    • Scap

      Can’t be any worse than driving over 17, 9, old San Jose road, or pick your pass in Tahoe. Unless the storm gets colder then have fun in the grapevine ice sheet.

      • Bombillo1

        The problem is it rains rocks and the ocean is the only level spot, about 500 feet below.

        • Tyler Price (Monterey/Seaside)

          That’s why I’m getting there early! And staying until it’s over and safe to drive! 🙂 I know the risks involved though.. even with careful planning with a storm like this it’s still dangerous!

      • Pfirman

        He just got there. Don’t disillusion him so fiercely as to how stuck he is.

  • Henrik Panosyan

    I’m driving down from Sacramento to LA on Friday to visit family for the long weekend. Leaving Sacramento around 4 in the afternoon; gonna be a long and wet drive

  • Sokafriend
  • Cap’n
  • Sokafriend

    This brings it in earlier in the south, but whatever, it brings it:
    http://vortex.plymouth.edu/~j_cordeira/ARPortal/Current/products.html

  • Humboldt_ARk

    Im at .93 for the night, the rain has been really nice and steady with large drops!

    • Bombillo1

      Getting some large drops here now, but not a lot. I am distrustful of the radar returns.

      • Humboldt_ARk

        Where are you located? The rain is surely coming down good now, got over 200 gallons of rainwater today alone:)

        • Bombillo1

          50 mi N of Redding, 2450 elevation 70″ avg annual, a wet spot. Just tipped .08 for last 24 hrs. We have had great cloud coverage all day but a bad case of precipitation hesitancy.

      • Cap’n

        Wind is hammering down here, she must be on her way.

        • Bombillo1

          There’s been a lot of posturing with this system, for my likings. Excessive foreplay.

        • Sokafriend

          Looks better and better –
          Heavy snowfall discussion 3:15 am EST:
          PROBABILITIES FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST…INCLUDINGTHE NORTHWEST/CALIFORNIA/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST…PRIMARILY ABOVE 3 TO
          4 THOUSAND FEET THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY…AS A SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE TYPICAL FOR SUCH A PATTERN.
          http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

      • Sokafriend

        I think you’re right. I just looked at your radar and it doesn’t seem to line up with the story on the Mesoscale warning posted above.

  • Sokafriend

    Northern coast, Medocino getting slammed through early morning- storms southern progression has been slowed-
    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0052&yr=2017

  • Bobby M

    Don’t know how it’s gonna be over donner summit on 80 Friday morning, hope for no delays

  • alanstorm

    Heavy rain, rediculous wind Mendo Mtns.
    Geez

    • Sokafriend

      Si, outrageous.

    • Mendodave

      got an inch since midnight
      tapering off, currently
      hang in there
      baro: 29.71 steady
      rainfall since midnight: .99′
      temp: 52f

      wind measurements suck here, so no figures…
      but the trees are thrashing

    • Admode (Susanville)

      The wind is ridiculous here, too.

  • Sokafriend
    • RunningSprings6250

      Haha awesome!

  • Sokafriend

    New Mesoscale 053 for overnight and morning hours:

    SUMMARY…A SURGE OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLY ECLIPSING 1
    IN/HR ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS INTO THE SHASTA CASCADE IS EXPECTED OVER NRN CA THROUGH 12-15Z THIS MORNING. 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH15Z.
    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0053&yr=2017

  • Sokafriend

    Coastal/Coastal waters T-Storms now likely Southern Cal down to the border Friday night through Saturday morning:
    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

  • Meanwhile, down here in Hollywoodland, the Sepulveda Dam stands at the ready. The emergency spillway is 32 ft. high, and the crest gates can be raised to give another 10 ft. Yeah, the concrete has some cracks, but the graffiti tends to seal them.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/268be0b3b7788cbd6832ed16a63dc6ab8cb2c6d34214970abf01f1ac6d18c554.jpg

    • Bombillo1

      “No worries there. Now let’s hassle a rancher with a 400 acre foot stock pond in the middle of nowhere”. DWR administrator.

    • roseland67

      Looks like Janna the Hutt’s Palace

      • The downstream spillway area, shown here, is frequently used for filming. Several Korean Music Videos have even been shot there in recent years. Nevertheless, the Oroville spillways are on track to capture public attention.

    • Darin

      Speaking of Hollywoodland, I lived there and didn’t know until right before I left about Lake Hollywood. A lake right the middle of LA. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_Reservoir

      • Which is… actually a dam and reservoir. Hard to see that now since most of it was buried in dirt after the 1928 failure of its sister structure – the St. Francis dam and the ensuing public outcry.

    • underdog

      Where is that? My son lives by Little Armenia.

      • Encino, CA near the 405 and 101 Fwy Interchange. Also near iconic Sepulveda Blvd named after the similarly iconic and well respected Sepulveda family of early California. They are one of the reasons that California is one state and not two.

        • underdog

          Thanks.

  • Chris Kiely

    Millbrae, down in the flats, near SFO. Rain started about 15 minutes ago. Pouring.

  • Dan the Weatherman

    My season rainfall total here in Orange so far beginning July 1 is 17.56″.

    Downtown Los Angeles has received 16.25″ from July 1 to the present. I don’t use the new October 1 to September 30 water year, but this year L.A. only recorded a trace from July to September, so both figures are the same. Last year, of course, was a different story with all the summer rainfall we had.

    • RunningSprings6250

      We might as well use it since it wouldn’t make sense when comparing our personal totals to various local totals –

      From one perspective it does make much more sense that the beginning of the rain year would be October and not July…

      • Cap’n

        You’re right in the end it doesn’t matter, but October 1st makes way more sense. For the sake of this comment section it would be good if we all used the same date while reporting our totals. Oh well. Enjoy the storm down there tomorrow.

  • Chris Kiely

    And a little thunder.

  • gray whale

    Lightning, thunder, and the strongest winds of the winter here at 1400′ north of placerville. Didn’t see that coming…,

    • Cap’n

      Winds just woke me up they are really hammering up here.

      • Charlie B

        Just noted Truckee reported gust to 68 mph.

    • Siernev

      Shucks, I slept through the thunder and lightning. Get your rain gauge installed yet?

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    Windy here. Temperature is amazing. It is 48 outside with a low overnight of 45. Typically the lows are down in the 30s.

  • Bombillo1

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iQrLPtr_ikE

    Now that’s a rain storm. Raining at .33/hr now. A good clip.

  • RunningSprings6250

    Hhhmmm instead of “snow level starting out at 8000′-8500′” it now says “snow levels between 6500′-7500′ during the heaviest precip before lowering to 5000′.”

    I’m on the edge of my seat! LOL

    • Aloha12

      I noticed it was quite cold this morning (by San Clemente standards). The usual warm air in place before the big storm arrives doesn’t seem to be the case (for now at least).

  • Charlie B

    Extreme winds in Reno. 60+ gusts or higher. 57 degrees. Remote sensors at top of Squaw 130+. Truckee 68 mph.

    • Cap’n

      I just posted below. I am shocked we have power. It really sounds like a tree could crush our house right now.

    • maddogokp

      Bananas are falling from the trees in the Shire.

  • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

    Latest sensors at the dam show .28″ of rain in the last couple hours but no real rise on the inflow and the lake continues to drop.

    • Bombillo1

      Oroville or Cachuma?

      • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

        Oroville.

    • roseland67

      Shasta, Oroville & Folsom are dumping almost 200 million gallons/minute trying to make room, mercy, that is a lot of water

    • cthenn

      They didn’t make their 850′ goal, though I’m not sure by when they were supposed to hit that mark. Friday looks to be more southerly of the area, so all eyes will be on the area Sun/Mon.

      • Allen Dodson

        by Saturday I believe. Thought is they can keep reducing the lake level through this first storm…but the following one looks like trouble looking at the map Daniel tweeted earlier

  • Paul C (SLO,Ca.)
    • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

      Is that even possible? 6.3″ in Goleta? I can’t imagine what the roads are going to look like.

      • Paul C (SLO,Ca.)

        Hard to imagine that this will verify. Those forecasted totals are jaw dropping.

      • jakobdrafter

        I imagine the models are a bit overdone, but were you here for the January 1995 flood? I seem to recall we had 6 inches overnight and 12+ in the hills. I remember trying to get to UCSB the next day and the slough was lapping at the edge of 217.

        • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

          Nope, moved here 10 years ago so I’ve never seen a storm like this in SB.

          That is crazy… Saturday morning will be interesting.

          • jakobdrafter

            I’m looking forward to it. The thing about 95 is that it was a bit of a surprise so there was no expectation build up. We were supposed to get heavy rain but nothing like what actually fell. All the creeks were at the brim and all the underpasses along Misson creek were lakes. I used to have an old VHS of San Jose creek at its peak but it got lost over the years.

    • RunningSprings6250

      Folks in Middle Earth will likely be excited about the uptick in rain totals – may the Santa Maria River flow deep and wide!

    • Will (Solvang CA)

      6.09 in Solvang? My back yard floods if we get over 2 in 24 hours… time to dust off the yard pump.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Snow has started at 7k’ in Truckee, chain requirements over 80.

  • CHeden

    Main CF is now through San Bruno. S Winds briefly hit 34mph, and is now in the teens from the west. Almost all precip (0.38″) came in a two hour period.
    As for Oroville, lake level has now hit 870′. Will be interested to see how the last two days of data aligned with the earlier projections. Will post the results later today after getting home and plotting out the new data.

  • AlTahoe

    As mentioned below the winds have finally stopped up here. We had 3 straight hours of ripping winds. Even in a winter with a ton of wind storms this one was impressive

    • Has not stopped or relented in the slightest up here on the crest, been crazy winds for about 10 hours now

      • Cap’n

        I think last night was the windiest of the winter here at Donner Lake.

  • Yolo Hoe

    0.16″ rain thus far in Davis with peak rate of 0.58″ per hour at 0341 this morning.

    Currently 54F with light southerly breeze and barometer rising slowly at 29.84.

    Taking Amtrak to Oakland and back today — should be some interesting views from the Capital Corridor perspective.

  • Boromir (Orcutt,CA)
    • RunningSprings6250

      Nice bullseye on Bako.

      • scott

        It gets rain shadowed in the southern part of the San Joauqin Valley quite a bit and even there the CNRFC said they will get about 1.15in. For Bako that impressive so that shows just how grand these totals are. I mean over 10 inches around Santa Barbara? Holy cow.

  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)
    • RunningSprings6250

      This will look drastically different next week.

      • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

        yep we could vary well have nothing on that map by next week this week storms could seal the deal

      • DelMarSD

        It will look march different by March.

        • Cap’n

          Has agree

    • scott

      Nice….you beat me to it! This will be the last time that red blob will appear over Ventura and Santa Barbara.

  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)
    • Nookx-Weather

      That would be insane if Sacramento ends up getting 5-7.5inches of rain.

  • DelMarSD

    The beautiful new seasonal outlook. The drought will be GONE from most of So Cal by May 31st. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0d8766b9fc45e2dc52222117d33f9614288527d55e5c8b492f453f0b8475fec5.png

    • Cornholemaster (Ventura)

      At least the drought as it relates to surface waters. I’m unconvinced that they take groundwater into much consideration.

      • DelMarSD

        I’m pretty sure groundwater has been depleted for decades (especially in the central valley) due to pumping, regardless of drought or not. But I could be wrong.

      • roseland67

        Corn,

        How do they measure groundwater levels?

        • Cornholemaster (Ventura)

          Wells. The list kinda fluctuates, but there are several in my area that have been around for many decades.

          • roseland67

            So,
            Simply measure water levels in multiple wells, assuming that the water level in the well should be close to the water level in the aquifer?
            If it goes up in the well, the aquifer is improving.

            Okay, I was thinking it was gonna be some super sophisticated NASA, reverse calculus, negative electricity kind of thing.

          • Cornholemaster (Ventura)

            Seems like it should be, doesn’t it. Fortunately, it’s a lot simpler than that. As an example, here’s a graph from a recent report. You can see that the last 5 years have taken us to levels below anything seen in the almost-70-year history of this well. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/00aebaf7f08196ead9919791fc896b02097cf1d7fa4bb6b812af582917ec66ae.png

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    About in an inch of snow in the last hour at 7k’ in TD, winds gusting 10-15 mph. Looks like they’re holding traffic EB at the summit due to a jacknifed big rig and reports of boulders past the state line WB. Looks like it’s going to be a long week or so with these next set of storms rolling in.

    • AlTahoe

      We have a trace so far but it is snowing hard right now

    • Cap’n

      Coming down pretty good here as well.

  • cthenn

    Picked up just under 0.5″ in Walnut Creek overnight. Seems to have blown through a bit earlier than forecast, because it was all done when I got up at 6:15. Tidy little storm.

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

    0.08 in San Jose. Front passing was nice, but seemed to last only about 20 minutes.

    • cthenn

      you get rain shadowed to death…

      • AlTahoe

        San Jose was the worst place I have ever lived for being a weather enthusiast.

        • RunningSprings6250

          San Jose: the new Bako.

        • Aussie Joe

          Sunnyvale not much better, but then with a name like that it shouldn’t surprise anyone..

        • One could see it happening all around though…LOL

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

        Yeah. This year it seems to happen worse than ever. Strong jet, weak jet, from the west, from the south, all shadow. Still not sure how SJ ever got so much rain in the 97/98 el Niño.

        Hoping the next storm might bring rain more from SE to see if that helps.

        Also seems like most storms this year lacked the “numerous showers” and cold air that used to come after front passing. This is when we got the most rain.

        • JT (San Jose, CA)

          With the Arctic melting, I speculate that cold air masses will be harder to form?

        • You kinda answered your question.

    • jstrahl

      Only .40 inches in Berkeley, you didn’t get shadowed all the much relatively speaking.

    • janky

      .60 since 9pm in the Santa Cruz mountains

  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)
  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)
  • Bobby M

    Got .38 inches of rain from storm when I was forecast .75-1.25, the frontal passage I’m guessing was really fast bc it was suppose to raining hard now when I last checked at 11:30. Heaviest rain was suppose to be from 4-8

  • Bobby M

    This seems impossible and will probably fool many people. I have never seen this high of rain rates and rain accumulation over 36 hours even in category 1-2 hurricanes

  • Cap’n
    • scott

      And then there is that one lonely van driving.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Quite the drive to reno, truck over the side in Northwoods in TD, chevy cruise spun 180 clockwise, then a 360 counter clockwise at Boca…..inches from the wall twice…stopped for a moment the went back on their way,

      Winds still blowing in Reno with light rain.

  • maddogokp
  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)
    • Henry

      Based on the forecast location of the surface low, Friday’s storm might appear to be a direct hit on the Bay Area. But thus far the weather service is predicting only light winds here. I think it has to do with the location of the surface low. When the center is to the south, the winds be will from the east, in which case much of the south bay and even some of the passes in the Santa Cruz Mountains will be sheltered. However if the track of the storm were to shift 100-150 miles to the north and west there could be serious winds tomorrow here in the Santa Cruz Mountains.

  • jstrahl

    Rain started almost precisely at 4AM, as predicted, after some intense wind, but seemed to end fast, .40 inches at this point, 8AM, lots of clearing, well below the .75-1.50 forecast. Central Berkeley.

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      We were supposed to get from .10 to .25 and it did rain but didn’t measure in the rain gauge. Storm wimped out

  • JMS

    Rain just started in northeast Fresno. Not much wind here.

    • Danlyle (Mariposa)

      Light winds in the foothills. Rain started just before 8:00 AM

  • Thor

    As others have mentioned, a quick and dirty little storm between about 2:30 and 4:30…vigorous but brief with a ~.5″ in San Rafael…Sun is out even with few spotty showers floating by but that looks to be about it for today. 57 degrees

  • inclinejj

    Pacifica. 8:10 am. Barometer 29.98. 56.8 degrees. Rainfall .50.

    • Henry

      This morning’s storm was a bust in terms of rainfall, but the winds over performed. Nearby Los Gatos RAWS had only 0.2″ of rain, but had sustained winds of 40 mph earlier this morning, and had gusts over 60 mph for several hours.

  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)
  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

    Apologies if posted yesterday, but a good graphic on rain in the feather river drainage based on 1 inch of rain:

    https://twitter.com/ggweather/status/831953017763045376

    • Steve92

      BA calling for 12 inches for oroville. Someone start doing the math.

      • Nathan

        Bunch of that will be snow.

        • Steve92

          Hopefully it takes a while to melt. Which I don’t count on with all the high snow levels we’ve been having.

      • OldSnwSrvyr (Paradise)

        Jan Null’s computations are asuming a return rate of 98% which is very optimistic even with the saturated upstream conditions. Using his assumptions, and inserting the 12 inches total precipitation forecast by BA, the yield from the watershed would be 2.058 MAF. Of course, as mentioned, much of this will fall as snow so it would not all arrive at Oroville at the same time. IMHO, the actual return would be much less but still substantial along with the snowpack that is already up there. Keep praying that any precipitation that comes falls as snow, or doesn’t fall at all.

    • Danlyle (Mariposa)

      I think the few upstream reservoirs are full now, but were not during the previous influx.

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

        I wonder if the graphic takes that into account?

        • Danlyle (Mariposa)

          I assume so, since it is straight math on surface area. I was just highlighting that more liquid could flow from the same precipitation since less will be impounded this time. Hoping for low snow levels, for sure.

    • Thor

      Mick West thinks he is mistaken- any thoughts?

      https://www.metabunk.org/oroville-watershed-weather-forecast-lake-level-and-inflow-calculations.t8406/#post-200740

      “I saw a tweet say the
      waterflow intake was 3,222 sq miles, a bit lower than my measurement
      from GE. However he also said that this means an inch is 171,840
      acre-feet flowing in, and this exceeds the 150K acre-feet flowing out.

      However, at 100,000 cubic feet per second, that’s 100000*60*60*24 cubic
      feet per 24 hours, which is actually 198K acre feet, according to
      google.

      https://www.google.com/search?q=100000*60*60*24+cubic+feet+in+acre+feet

      I suspect he was simply mistaking the 150K cfs standard release for 150K
      acre/feet. But perhaps this misconception is based on something else.
      Have there been acre-feet figures given for the releases?”

      • cthenn

        LOL you just beat me to it, I’ll delete mine…

      • 150,000 CFS is maximum release at 900 feet.

      • Thunderstorm

        The water shed area is incorrect. I suspect that the lakes that empty into lake Oroville where not added to the total. The ENTIRE Feather River watershed is very close to 6,000 square miles. The water shed area just for Oroville Lake is 3,222. All the lakes have their own watershed area. Alameda Creek is the closest big creek to where I live SF bay area by Fremont and the watershed area is 1,600 square miles.

        • OldSnwSrvyr (Paradise)

          Just spent some time researching this. The entire watershed above oroville is 3611 square miles. That includes all of the sun basins.

    • cthenn

      deleted.

      • OldSnwSrvyr (Paradise)

        I have not seen the daily flows converted to acre feet. But you can take the daily average release (from the daily summary) and simply multiply it by 1.9835 (same as your comps above) to convert it to acre feet for the 24 hour period..

  • RunningSprings6250

    Seems to be moving quicker than expected so far? This morning update said SLO/SB around noon. Maybe it’s just anxious to snuggle up to socal for a bit! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e8fab20ec30916ad64d62147506e8bd700ada3364aae39c5c4bd745329604913.png

    • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

      Sacrificial lamb running from the T-Rex

    • weathergeek100

      This thing whipped through in the middle of the night so fast here in the bay. Basically an hour or so of moderate to heavy rain. The sun was shining when I woke up.

  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

    high wind watch are going too be needed area wide in N CAL i think are NWS is under minding on how strong this weekend storm could be this could could end up be much more stronger then what is being forecast we are still going too see mod too heavy rain here in N CAL we are all so going too see back too back wind storms we will find out in 24hrs or so but i think we are in for a much stronger storm that what are NWS up here in N CAL are thinking right now so please get ready for strong winds here in N CAL and heavy rain fall yes i no So CAL is forecast too get most of the heavy rain but i think that the heavy rain fall could be more widespread then what is being forecast for this weekend from are NWS so far they are under performing this weekend event and i think this could be much stronger that what they are thinking right now

    • Jim

      The NAM4KM shows the highest surface winds from about the Monterey Bay south….

      • RunningSprings6250

        But….Storm Master!!!

      • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

        Well see

        • Jim

          Ya we will. I’m not sure the 850mb (5000ft) winds you are showing always translate to the surface….but we shall see !!!

      • Henry

        It seems that sometimes the models tend to forecast the location of surface lows further south than their actual track. I think if strong winds are forecast in Monterey with the wind coming from the south, there could be serious winds in the Santa Cruz Mountains. But the direction of the wind is key.

    • cthenn

      That was one helluva run on sentence! It’s peculiar that you actually do seem to get out of sorts when a strong weather system is forecast for SoCal, and not so much NorCal. Share the wealth, it’s a big state, and EVERYONE (well, except for Oroville) needs the rain.

  • Nathan

    2nd storm fizzling, 3rd storm more of a bitch and less of a bastard for Oroville. Colder, slightly south.

  • scott

    I’m remembering the story of the La Conchita mudslide in 2005. The slides also occured there in 1995.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_La_Conchita_landslide

    Does anyone live around that area? What are the comparisons to what we could see this weekend?

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Yep people still live there, and the slopes are still bad…

      • rainingonmycactus

        I can’t believe people still live there. Every time I drive by I’m surprised.

    • RunningSprings6250

      I don’t know the precip totals but I do remember it was the compounding issue of days and days and weeks of previous rain and it just finally buckled. Different scenario but nonetheless mudslides could happen and likely will be many around the south land.

    • BRP (Ventura)

      I live just 8 miles south of La Conchita, and this storm coming tonight and tomorrow, has the storm of Feb of 2005 written all over it. South facing hillsides, good orographics, saturated soils, 36 hours of potential rain, this is all the same recipes we had 12 years ago. Not saying there is going to be another slide, or any type of natural disaster, just saying that the similarities are uncanny. Only real difference from 2005 to this year, is that our annual rainfall totals as of today are sitting at least 3 to 5 inches below of where they were at this time back in 2005.

    • jakobdrafter

      I remember in 95 there was serious concern it could slide right across the highway to the ocean. It might have just been nerves and I haven’t heard much like that in recent years.

    • Matthew Saint

      Live and work around there, brother-in-law delivers mail to La Conchita. In 95, there were reports made and community meetings held before anything had happened yet, because geologists were concerned about/with what they were seeing. In 05 there were other factors that came into play(farm run-off, if I remember) from above the cliff-face. Both events had different properties in the kinds of slides that occurred.

      I’m not aware of either reports/meetings or water from farming(now owned by La Conchita residents)factoring in currently there. Not to say it won’t or can’t happen, but it is different.

      • Matthew Saint

        A bigger concern for the area is on the opposite end of the county at the Conejo Grade where the Camarillo Springs area had large mudslides after the hillside had burned a few years before. The hills are just now getting the greenery to help secure them.

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

    Can someone explain why the storm for SoCal coming up will dump such copious amounts of rain for EVERYONE in southland where as in Nor Cal, I have yet to see a storm with such uniform crazy high numbers?

    They are having the type of storm I feel has not hit the Bay since the 90’s! I am extremely happy for them, if not a bit jealous…

    • weathergeek100

      Really? We’ve had massive storms lately. The AR systems of mid-January were really impressive, dumping over 2″ of rain in 24 hours in many areas. I know San Jose hasn’t done well but that’s the reality of these warm, wet, non-dynamic systems.

      Unless you’re in the desert, SoCal has very little shadowing. Even the valleys there can get plenty of rain in this pattern (shadowing for SoCal comes in Northwest patterns, which they’ve experienced plenty of the past few years). This low is also tracking pretty far south.

      With all that said, rainfall totals down south won’t be THAT uniform. San Diego is expected to get less than half of what LA gets.

      • AlTahoe

        Yep that 3’k ridge between Santa Cruz and the South Bay shadows Mt View south to San Jose and Hayward to Fremont on the East Bay side. Cut off low season in late March and April is the only time I have seen San Jose come out the big winner when the lows drop straight down the middle of the bay

        • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

          Thanks for the info. Was wondering what setup was good for not only San Jose, but the valleys in general.

        • Henry

          That is generally true. Though I recall that the December 2014 atmospheric river, which was very warm and slid down the coast without pushing over the Sierra, was a prolific rain producer in the Santa Clara Valley including rain sheltered locations like San Jose Airport. I’m not sure what was different about that storm. I think it had very strong winds above about 4000 feet, but not that strong near the surface. It was also very convective with rain rates around 1″ per hour for a couple of hours at the beginning, but I recall that the heavy rain continued in the rain shadowed valleys 12+ hours after the initial convection had passed.

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

        I think you said the word I have not heard a ton this in recent years? “Dynamic”. I agree that the rest of NorCal has had plenty of fun.

        Instead of uniform, I should have said that it seems no area seems terribly left out of the fun.

        • RunningSprings6250

          It’s just one storm…and it hasn’t quite happened yet…

          • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

            True. Hope I am not sounding like another NorCal poster who gets angry when SoCal gets rain…. Just trying to figure out the microclimates of the state and how different storms affect them.

          • RunningSprings6250

            Too late ??

        • weathergeek100

          I just checked rainfall totals for the season so far for San Jose. You guys are a solid 2″ above normal but yeah, it’s interesting because most of your rain has been in small amounts from a large number of systems vs large amounts from individual storms. This is definitely due to lack of dynamics. One thing I’ve noticed region-wide, whether you’re rain shadowed or not, is rain rates haven’t been as high this year. It’s just been a bunch of steady, light to moderate rain. Honestly? I think it was a little more fun last season in a sense. We had some fun, narrow intense squall lines come through.

          Like San Jose, other parts of the state are also experiencing missed opportunities. San Diego comes to mind (but not due to shadowing). The AR that hammered SoCal last month gave widespread 2″-4″ of rain across the LA basin while SD got about a half inch. This might be a similar situation this weekend.

    • Jeff

      seems pretty focused, the numbers for san diego are much lower for this one

      in contrast, here is what we got in san diego last January, 5.83″ over less than 3 days https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f81946ab327627addabb38827caf9f92c682506b553d7971200394c5211f2ec4.jpg

    • Cap’n

      Facepalm

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      At least from the models I am looking at it isn’t going to hit everyone in SoCal. To me, it looks like it going to just hit an area of the coast but the rain totals looks modest inland. I am sure they would trade places with some of us. Long-term it looks one and done for so cal, None of the upcoming storms in February look to make it that far south. We haven’t had a really strong storm this year either except for this past October. That is what seems to happen with AR events. We get rain shadowed in the valley. We are still above our annual rainfall totals but haven’t had any big ones

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

        You are right. I need a “Big” storm to satisfy the itch. I accept they will be harder to come by since the cold air portion is lacking most times. However, I thought these storms would still be more dynamic given the jet support.

    • malnino

      Not since the 90’s … or maybe it was last month, when the northern half of the state got body-slammed by that first ginormous AR?

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

        That AR did not slam the valleys south of Marin…..

        • malnino

          I’m just going by your post. You said you hadn’t seen a storm in NorCal where MOST areas got high numbers; if you’re saying that the northern Bay Area northward got pounded, that to me sounds like MOST of NorCal .. Also, not everyone down here is getting drenched by this upcoming storm – from the IE thru the eastern deserts, from OC south thru San Diego; they’re getting just a fraction of what coastal LA/VENT/SB counties are expecting. Microclimates down here are as varied as anywhere in the country – hell, you’ll prob hear Redlands tell us they were lucky to get a quarter of what LA does (per forecast), and they’re only 60 miles apart. For God’s sakes, man, 90% of the GOA storms drop more rain on your area than ours, why bitch about the 10% of the time when LA somehow comes out ahead? Amazing.

          • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

            I am not complaining about your guys rain, so apologies if that was how it sounded. More just hoping for my own 3 inches in one day type event….. So not sour grapes, just wanting to join in on the fun. Regarding the comments that “most of norcal got pounded”, that is true, but not my area. I can admit I am looking more micro, not macro. A bad metaphor, but it would be like saying that although I live in a crime ridden area, I should not complain since most of the area around my areas is super safe.

          • malnino

            Actually a pretty good metaphor! I dunno what % of the crowd down here I speak for, but besides me – who loves the occasional BIG storm – I think lotsa folks here see it either of 2 ways: They hate it, view it as an inconvenience, are even frightened by the prospects of getting thru it (as demonstrated by freeway meltdowns); or they see it as icing on the cake – whatever we DO get is bonus!! Because we don’t expect much, we aren’t as disappointed when the GFS et al fail us. At least until last year!!

          • malnino

            Maybe I say this cuz Ive lived here my entire 53 years and live with a certain skepticism about rain chances ?

  • AlTahoe

    Weird drive into work today. Dumping snow in South lake all the way to Sand harbor. About 2-3″ of unplowed super wet and slippery snow. Sand Harbor to Incline village was all rain.

    • Cap’n

      Donner Lake on ramp to Truckee was similar. Few inches of unplowed and only me driving on it. Pretty tired of the slurpee.

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

        With the way the Sierras have seen snow, then rain, snow then rain, etc, what keeps the existing snow from becoming once big ice block?

        • AlTahoe

          It doesn’t. My front lawn where I have been throwing a lot of my driveway snow is a solid 3′ block of ice.

          • Cap’n

            Yeah lots of adventures at our place. Haven’t seen the back porch, or the wood, in months.

          • Someone else

            *insert “thats what she said” joke here*

            *curse Disqus’ quasi-html support*

    • TahoeCard

      Been snowing pretty good in Homewood/Tahoe City since about 6 AM. Nice to see the snow level drop earlier than expected.

      • Cap’n

        Just drove through Tahoe City, definitely more snow than my house, though it seems to be wrapping up.

        • TahoeCard

          Don’t be so sure. Radar looks to be filling in again.

          • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

            Fileing in

          • Cap’n

            I’m in your area now and you’re right it’s snowing good.

        • Freddy66

          You mean warping up

  • Crank Tango

    Super dark this morning! sun’s out! very windy! raining hard! rain’s stopped!

    Kinda crazy this AM up in Shasta County. Hoping everyone has fun down in SoCal today.

  • RunningSprings6250
    • Crank Tango

      So flagged!

    • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

      Reported

  • AlTahoe

    GFS fantasy range is still waffling back and forth between sea level snow over California and a break through of the block over Alaska. The current run shows a very impressive arctic snap for this late in the season. Almost an exact copy of what we were seeing in late December on the models. March is going to be interesting to say the least .

    • RunningSprings6250

      I like where the 12z is taking things…

      • malnino

        Best pic of the year, by far. Inspired! Sorry its shelf life was so short…

        • RunningSprings6250

          Dam lol

      • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

        Talking things

    • Jim

      Looks like only a 4 or so day break between rains….will be interesting. Although we still need Storm Masters take on it before we can call it good…after all, he did say March would be dry.

    • molbiol

      Wait a minute, I thought March was supposed to be a total bust; completely dry 🙂
      Seriously though, it’ll be interesting to see what happens as the strong MJO signal weakens. It looks like extreme blocking will develop in the high latitudes once again which could be the precursor to another very stormy pattern following a cold arctic outbreak (lots of ‘ifs’ here). Keep in mind that the sun angle is higher meaning that even with 850mb temps approaching -5C, snow levels would still be higher than they would in Dec. In other words, sea level snow is not likely.

  • Cactus on a Boat

    When I was kid I remember, everybody in school used to sing:

    Rain, rain, go away
    Come again some other day
    We want to go outside and play
    Come again some other day

    I hated it when they sang it. I actually wanted it to rain lol

    • Someone else

      Depresssion is what sets in once the storm has been declared a Bust!

      • Crank Tango

        Thank you.

        • Nate

          *, Carp

  • RunningSprings6250

    From the horses mouth. NWS LA hydro outlook:

    A long narrow band of subtropical moisture, otherwise known as an Atmospheric River will take aim at Southwestern California. Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles Counties should take the brunt of this powerful storm Friday morning through Saturday morning. Between 2 to 6 inches of rainfall is expected across coast and valleys, with between 5 to 10 inches across the Santa Ynez Range, as well as the Ventura and Los Angeles County Mountains.

    • Bombillo1

      That’s cool, about 18 million people live in the area, that gets 10 inches in a year. What could go wrong?

      • RunningSprings6250

        A good deep urban cleaning? Looking on the bright side…

        • Mother (SFV)

          Oh, you are so right. Over the last few years the sidewalk odor has been so rank that walking became an unpleasant experience.

          • DelMarSD

            Is that why nobody walks in LA?

          • RunningSprings6250

            There’s really only one category of people that walk the streets in LA.

          • molbiol

            There are many people in SoCal for which breeding should be illegal

          • SBMWill

            Yes but it’s not and they are reproducing at alarming rates. It seems we will have a lot of problems to deal with in the future. Socially, environmentally, economically and so on.

          • Bombillo1

            Eugenics could make a come-back. Turns out we only sterilized one woman in the 30’s when the US had a program for this. It was subsequently reversed by popular and court opinion. It is a fact that Germany, who is much more efficient in these sorts of things, sterilized more than half a million in the 30s with their program.

          • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

            A fact most people are afraid to admit because of social conditioning PC.

      • VK (Sacramento)

        Well San Marcos pass got 50+ inches as recent as 2012, it should be fine

        Accidents / traffic delays, I doubt LA would barely notice it from any other day

        • Bombillo1

          Mountains always do well because the water doesn’t stay there. The LA basin and other low areas are where The party gets going. Tell The Rock to get the chopper spooled up.

          • Danlyle (Mariposa)

            I was picturing that the right circulation and dynamics could generate an F0 funnel that could lift sharks out of the Santa Monica bay.

        • thebigweasel

          That was 50″ over the course of a year. The News-Press, the (sort-of) newspaper here, claims we might see 12″ between tomorrow morning and Saturday night. That could be problematical.

          • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

            The hills have good new growth for stability and the last 6 days of dry/sun will really benefit the management of all that water falling up here. I’ve had gnarlier consecutive storms back in January 2008, and besides the normal rock/mud slides, things go smooth as long as dumb humans don’t take risks…

          • thebigweasel

            Yeah, the new growth will help. But sudden intense downpours can still generate flash floods and rock slides. 12″ over 48 hours we can handle. But 4″ over one hour might be a different story.

      • RanDog

        Good one Bombillo!!!

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    Rivers have really risen the past couple of days. The Tuolomne has gone up considerably. The San Joaquin River near Patterson was at 22,000 CFS this morning. It is about a foot from banks of a friend’s orchard which is already half flooded

  • molbiol

    Damn computer models (LOX):

    “The NAM and ECMWF (especially the NAM) are quite a bit lighter
    with the amounts than the consistently high GFS solution. Not
    really finding a reasonable explanation for the drop off in the
    NAM precip other than possibly it`s showing a slightly faster
    movement through the area and maybe one less 6 hour period of rain
    than the GFS. Still plenty of south wind to drive the orographics,
    good difluence aloft, and pwats in the 1-1.4″ range.”

    • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

      I hope you guys get what is predicted, but the GFS numbers do seem extreme!

      • Cactus on a Boat

        Yeah, my expectations are somewhere between the ECMWF and GFS.

    • DelMarSD

      It’s gonna be YUGE, believe me.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        You guys in Del Mar look to get nailed by a very intense band of rain late Friday night. Check out the link for the 3k NAM I posted above.

  • Thunderstorm

    Heres what you can do if you live next to a creek where there is a road crossing over the creek. Get as many people as you can and go to your public works corporation yard and demand that they station a backhoe operator at the crossing to clear tree limbs pilling up underneath the crossing. If the City of Palo Alto had done this they would not have had a flash flood in the middle of the night some years ago. They should know where the problem areas are. When the NWS says winds so high that structural damage is possible you know the creeks will be clogged with debris. Good luck!!

    • Sokafriend

      Great tip, thanks!

    • BobKatopolis

      A backhoe is a smaller machine. For wider channels, the city will need an excavator with a longer boom, and a bucket with a thumb attachment or a grapple instead of a bucket.

  • William_LeGro

    “3 to 5 inches of rain expected” in L.A., and that forecast isn’t distinguishing between mountains and valleys, coast and inland.

    It’s incredibly hard to believe. 3-5″ in a day? Here? Seriously?

    • Cactus on a Boat

      The last major storm we had in January, Los Angeles received around that much in a day. It was nothing too crazy, since it was spread out throughout the whole day.

      Now, if tomorrow 3″-5″ fell in L.A in less than 6 hours, now that would be CRAZY!

    • malnino

      They should distinguish. Seen predictions for 6-8″ in the south-facing foothills and the mountains over the 2-day period! Half that would be just fine; all would be great; more would be a problem.

    • RunningSprings6250

      ?

      “Between 2 to 6 inches of rainfall is expected across coast and valleys, with between 5 to 10 inches across the Santa Ynez Range, as well as the Ventura and Los Angeles County Mountains.”

  • Rio Rat

    .61 & light south winds from about 2am for this system in Aptos. Half inch from each of these coming low pres,would sit nice around here. Good luck So Cal Fri, be careful what we wish for.

    • Jim

      .67 here in Scotts Valley

      • Coldspot

        1.8″ in Scott Valley (Siskiyou county)

  • alanstorm

    2.2″ from this fast moving front.
    Puts me at 80.2″ for the season: Willits, Mendocino County interior.
    Look out for Monday-Tues long duration storm. Alot of flooding by Tues.
    Grand finale for Feb?

    • Charlie B

      What is your record? Outside chance at 100″?

      • alanstorm

        Had 100″ here once before since I’ve been here. (16yrs).
        2005 I think….
        I’ll have to look thru my records.
        The Sharpie on the wall precip tally started 4 yrs ago.

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

    Expected bay area rainfall through Tuesday. https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea/status/832277756062859268

    • Phil Johnson

      OCW (Orographic Capital of the World) in with 80+”, with 2.9″ this AM’s front in addition. So, we only have 3″ to go through next week. Record is 125″, some time in the grizzly past. Lots of road problems.

      I am glad SoCal will get, finally, its due share. It is way too bad it all has to come at once. Makes you want to find all the empty coffee cans, yogurt and potato salad tubs you can, and put them out there to catch concentrated rainfall.

    • jstrahl

      Forecasts should be taken with lots of salt. Remember today’s forecast totals? 🙂

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

        Of course. Just throwing out the “official forecast” since many on here think we should treat what the NWS says as gospel.

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    The 12z 3km NAM. Pretty impressive storm.
    Edit: Loop is too large to post.

    • Great loop. Looking forward to the rain here, but not the winds. Hope they are not as severe as forecast. And I am glad not to be in the bulls eye for the heaviest rain. 3-4″ that is being predicted for my area is just fine.

  • mattzweck

    if we do get alot of heavy rain down here in socal bring it on. i’m waiting for the flooded streets and the people who don’t know how to drive in the rain.

    • cthenn

      We already saw that last go around…

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    I have 5″ to go let’s see what we can do hear. The sky is going to piss. It’s been a helluva wait for a storm with this much model agreement and this size of complex system that surrounds it. Could be some heavy wind, hydrologic impacts and even snow to these areas & others in the state. This could chnage with how the lows pivot the coast & possibly stall. Stay safe out there SoCal friend’s it’s best I make a point this storm’s **impacts & intensity could be the strongest since the December ’04 or January ’95 storms** for these areas & if you know me well on the blog you know how 2004-05 storm cycle I bring up quite a bit, one of my favorite storm cycles. Read about it here: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2005/california-storms2005.html

    Here is my thread. https://twitter.com/805Weather/status/832293757961711618

    • BRP (Ventura)

      Thanks for the great Post! Let’s hope to get Ventura County out of Stage 3 Drought and Lake Casitas up to a measly 50% capacity!

    • RunningSprings6250

      Let’s go Camarillo!

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Ventura County River valleys and small creeks ??

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      I have a really worrisome feeling with this incoming system, it could really due some damages not seen to many locations across this county, and models generally tell the tale we’ll be in the thick of it regardless here. I will be watching this creek up the street near my house that has swollen many times… Including those years, it’s from the hills along the eastern side of the basin and back into Moorpark. Whatever falls orographically enhanced will likely be easy for me to distinguish from this creek and where I live. http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/graphicalRVF.php?id=CLLC1

      • Tangocity

        Callegus Creek will be swollen but I think we make it unscathed. Now if there was another storm right before this one or right after it might be a different story.

        • Tangocity

          I think we will have a ton of trees down in the area from the soggy ground and high winds.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
      • CanyonKid

        SVR?

        • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

          Severe

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Severe weather risk.

    • I was here for the 04/05 storm…one difference I recall in making comparisons -all the wind this season!

  • tomocean

    Of course I’m supposed to be on a ferry out to Catalina Island tomorrow evening and coming back Monday morning. Wonder what the odds are of that happening as planned?

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      “Your gonna need a bigger boat…”

    • underdog

      Doooon’t do it

    • Danlyle (Mariposa)

      Last time I took that trip the water was glass, not a ripple. Looks the gale warnings will have those waters frothing, for any boat that dares to head out.

    • Sokafriend

      You have seen the gale warning and high swells, right?

      • tomocean

        Yep. I guess it will be street surfing in flooded Orange County instead.

        • Sokafriend

          Good. I’d much rather see you on the news doing that.

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      I’m not sure if the weather will affect the ferry that much, just check with them. Any kind of small craft is absolutely out of the question in that channel though, a “friend” had a rough experience out there before….

    • malnino

      Man, hope they cancel that barf barge!! Could be rough.

    • Matthew Saint

      Just think, no matter how far inland your home is, on the return trip the ferry can drop you off at your front door.

    • Bombillo1

      Tomo, have you seen the movie The Perfect Storm, by any chance?

    • hermit crab

      I’m supposed to pick up a friend coming into LAX today…he’s getting a hotel room!

  • Sokafriend

    Heh guys- why has the humidiy dropped and dropping? It’s down to 65% from 89% last night.

  • RunningSprings6250

    Oye!

    “Wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph are expected from the coast to the valleys and across portions of the lower deserts. Localized gusts of 60-70 mph is even possible. Wind gusts in the mountains and portions of the high deserts will exceed 70 mph. Even a period of high sustained winds of 30 to 40 mph is expected along the coast Friday afternoon into the evening. This will be a high impact wind event! Numerous trees will fall, posing a life and property risk. Downed powerlines, power outages, and some structural damage is also expected.”

    • Sokafriend

      Si, pues, como pelicula de espanto.

      • gray whale

        Peor que la neblina que te hace cagar los pantalones??

        • Sokafriend

          Fijate que asi no ha habido neblina espesa a nivel de la calle.

    • Ice-nine (Suisun City)

      Cool. I can finally fly the iron kite I made last year.

      • Sokafriend

        Nice, nice, very nice..

  • mattzweck

    i guess this sums up this weekend forecast. i’ll try to start posting more again just been really busy. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b44abe4ff170de9ea7a0d86c6276c413267b4734d922f612685a6256d2bcd78c.png

    • Bombillo1

      Matttzo, Your ship has come in bro!

    • gray whale

      I didn’t even know where “High Desert / Lancaster area” was until your posts! Hope you enjoy, stoked for you.

  • Bombillo1

    2.32″ since midnight last night. Hail, thunder, sporadic wind gusts. It has gone eerily dark here mid-day. This one has an attitude. We all keep adding and reporting but we are in the midst of breaking records, which will shock us, when all is said and done.

    • I was beginning to think you might have become Jack Torrance II

      • Bombillo1

        “Here comes Johnny”.

    • Sokafriend

      It’s already stunning. I’m hoping it doesn’t traumatize us.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
  • SoCalWXwatcher

    As a followup to NWS Oxnard’s predicted rainfall totals chart that mattzweck posted earlier, here’s NWS SD’s predicted rainfall totals map.

    Looks like the cutoff for the 3″+ totals is near the LA/OC county line. South of that it looks like 2″+ for OC, and 1″+ for SD County.

    Of course, if, how, and where the system stalls, and for how long, will make a BIG difference on these totals.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f8d73ce8a16d9c5fd085245580f165c9628a7b0f11ada2607af6056679a66a2a.jpg

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
  • SoCalWXwatcher

    LOL. 805 and I both posted the same graphic, but under the circumstances, it’s better seen twice than not at all. 😉

  • Chatman

    Records will be broken! NWS WPC: A look at how the forecast rainfall for southern California stacks up to long-term records for two-day totals over the region. #SoCal pic.twitter.com/H0RKFFzXbJ https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8ceebe786f3b035c6b3f119f741213e3f70531f968d5e951d345f44dd7f3e83c.jpg

  • gedawei
  • sezwhom

    Medium range models generally show a cooler, drier weather pattern
    developing over the region by the second half of next week. Longer
    range guidance currently suggests this trend to extend through late
    February and potentially into early March.

    That’s strictly based on the GFS. Have they taken a look at the 12z EC and GEM? They don’t show that at all. In fact, out 240, both have a deep, cold trof for the West. Why even bother with the GFS past 7+ days? For those who know: take a look at the Total Snowfall on GEM and GFS over Sierra out 240. You’d better be sitting down. GEM 240 Total Rain is very heavy over North Bay and…and…Lake Oroville.

  • sezwhom

    Oh yeah, one more thing: at 11 AM, Friday, my barometer reading is at 29.17″.