Northern California storm onslaught continues; widespread flooding likely this evening

Filed in Uncategorized by on January 10, 2017 3,261 Comments

Recent storms set stage for high-impact event today

Another powerful storm will bring heavy rain, high winds, and high-elevation blizzard conditions to Northern California. NCEP via UCSD.

This will be a brief update, but given the widespread significant storm impacts expected later today I felt a quick post was in order.

A very warm and wet “Pineapple Express”-type atmospheric river (with origins in the subtropics) brought widespread rainfall to California over the weekend, even at very high elevations in the Sierra Nevada. Flooding, mudslides, and avalanches shut down most major travel corridors through Northern California on Sunday for at least some period of time, and a number of larger rivers have approached or exceeded flood stage.

Early model forecasts for this weekend storm were remarkably on-target, especially with regard to the large-scale storm details. One modest mitigating factor that prevented the weekend storm from bringing even more severe impacts was the slight lag between the arrival of the deepest atmospheric moisture and the arrival of the cold front. This “phasing issue” meant that while orographically favored higher elevation areas saw the expected prodigious rainfall totals, areas near sea level or “rain shadowed” by mountain saw less precipitation than otherwise would have occurred.

Soils are completely saturated and rivers already running very high following this weekend’s storm, however, and now a new storm is bearing down on California this afternoon. Since virtually all precipitation that falls over the next 24 hours will immediately turn into river/stream runoff, the flood threat later today may actually be higher in many places that during the weekend storm.

 

Very heavy rain, locally very strong winds, and epic blizzard conditions in Sierra Nevada

Northern California, particularly the Bay Area and central Sacramento Valley, will be under a strong” jet streak” this evening, enhancing precipitation and wind potential. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Today’s storm will bring an wide range of severe weather conditions to Northern California over the next 18 hours.

Steady soaking rains will intensify this evening, possibly culminating in a very intense burst of precipitation at some point tonight as the strong and fairly convective cold front passes through. This steady ramp-up of precipitation intensity, followed by a final burst of rain rates possibly approaching 1 inch/hour, will likely lead to widespread flooding given already wet antecedent conditions. In some parts of the Bay Area, Sacramento Valley, and Sierra Nevada foothills, life-threatening flash flooding of streams and smaller rivers could result. In addition, larger rivers from the Santa Cruz Mountains northward to the Mendocino coast may respond rapidly to this additional rainfall, possibly leading to the highest flood levels in years. The Sacramento River will reach its highest level in at least a decade, flooding the Yolo Bypass. Large and dangerous mudslides have already started to occur in many places, and this risk will remain very high for at least the next 24-48 hours in areas of steeper terrain and near recent wildfire burn scars.

Very strong winds are also possible near the time of cold frontal passage this evening. In the hills and in other wind-prone locations, wind gusts in excess of 65 mph are possible (and winds greatly in excess of 100 mph are likely on remote, high elevation peaks in the Sierra Nevada). Of potentially even greater consequence will be wind gusts over 50 mph in less wind-prone urban areas in the Bay Area and Sacramento region, where widespread power outages and tree damage is likely. Wind impacts with this storm will likely be more significant than with the Sunday storm.

With strong storm-scale dynamics, increasingly cold air aloft, and a fairly well-defined cold frontal passage this evening, thunderstorms will be possible (especially near the coast). Some of these could even approach severe limits, bringing torrential downpours and very strong wind gusts.

In the Sierra Nevada, a blizzard of epic proportions is currently unfolding. In contrast to the Sunday storm, snow levels are now below well below pass level in most places. Multiple feet of snow have already fallen at the highest elevations, at it’s likely that areas as low as Lake Tahoe could see 5+ feet (!) of snowfall, with much more than that up at 8000+ feet. Very strong winds are also occurring. Travel across the Sierra Nevada range will be dangerous (and essentially impossible) over the next 24 hours. Snowfall of this magnitude hasn’t been seen in years in most populated parts of the Sierra Nevada, which may elevate impacts even further.

Once again, Southern California will see some rain out of this storm, but since totals will remain on the low side no significant problems are expected.

 

Long range: a much-needed break, but more storms on horizon?

Long range ensemble forecast: more storms to come after modest 3-5 day break. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

I’ll keep this section short: after another weak to moderate (and colder) system on Wednesday/Thursday (which could bring snow to the foothills and isolated thunderstorms elsewhere, including Southern California), things should dry out for 3-5 days. This will allow rivers to recede and soils to drain a bit. But both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that an active pattern over the North Pacific may redevelop by next week. Stay tuned!

For updates on today’s storm, follow Weather West on Twitter!

 

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  • Sublimesl

    Some lightning offshore SF with the low. Maybe we’ll get those thunderstorms afterall!!
    https://www.lightningmaps.org/

    • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

      Where they headed?

  • mrzz

    Dumping in Santa Barbara and the front is a ways away. Go Cachuma! Noticed that the front is also getting quite strung out and appears to be narrowing , kind of following the models pretty well though the rain rates here are impressive right now.

    • Jon Bartel

      I would LOVE to see Cachuma fill up again. I love camping and fishing there, and I want to take my boys but for most of their little lives it’s been depressingly low.

      • Pfirman

        Take them. It’s called educational fun.

  • GOLDFLAKE-SVF

    Oh ho!! It’s finally raining in the SFV-Sherman Oaks. It’s been drizzling off and on all day. Nice to hear rain drops.

  • Bobby M

    Front just passed San Francisco Bay Peninsula with barometer leveling out.Pressure dropped to 29.54 as it went over us. 2.65 inches of rain on the day with peak rain rates peaking over 2 in/per hour multiple times, amazing. Max rain rate of 2.81 at 6:28 PM. Past 7 day rainfall is insane at 6.29 inches ,with 7.86 on the month! 18.18 inches on the year which is about 200 or more percent above average. Elevation 144 feet

    • Tuolumne

      That was probably the center of the low pressure area which was training behind the front. The front passed through earlier this evening. A low trailing a cold front is a pretty typical pattern for us.

      See the CHeden post with satellite image about an hour ago.

  • Nathan

    Oh splendid another gigantic AR next weekend.

    • StormHiker

      Pray the Mota Prayer and it will be snow.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    yep the 18z was a bad run the 0z GFS brings back all the storms

  • Cap’n

    Big batch of yellows and some reds heading right at us. INCOMING!!! Problem is it is almost raining right now, making the heavy wet snow heavier outside. Hope the temps drop with that batch.

  • Rusty Rails

    That squall line basically fell apart right over Santa Cruz despite dumping everywhere else. Too funny. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d31b875aa3e5ecc28b957b9ca4e40a756efb4c7f0a61d377a6f1cf0dcc1859d3.jpg

  • AlTahoe

    What’s weird is up here we have barely had an snow the last 3 hours (maybe 1″) and no winds. Maybe the front is going to do a sneak attack

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    snow fall rates of 3 too 5″ per hr is about too move in too the truckee area

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    am at 3.01″ of rain today

  • The barn is blown.
    https://youtu.be/EGdgv4YJKb4

    • Charlie B

      I hope there is an Irish Coffee nearby.

      • I am now drinking a Sonoma Cider pear cider with some chipotle pepper hummus and garlic pita crisps. Also soaked from crotch to toe.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Aw man……was waiting for an expletive to go flying at the end of your video….lol.

    • Cap’n

      Dude I stood on my head and hit play, you tricked me! Stay safe up there. I just went outside and annoyingly it is now pouring rain, lots of heavy snow falling from trees, I can’t believe we have power.

    • Sokafriend

      I’m so sorry. Hope the Cider takes the edge off.

    • Pfirman

      You just found the Donner Party Common House?

  • AlTahoe

    I noticed that I haven’t had any snow accumulation the last couple of hours ( very little) and noticed that the temp has jumped up to 34.9F which is the highest it has been all day. I think it is still snowing hard still but just packing down or melting. Everything is soaking wet out.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    so far we pick up 0.17″ of rain with the cold front comeing in to add to are rain fall today

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    the power this went out at the truckee airport that the 1st time that has happen since i been tracking storms

    http://tahoetopia.com/webcam/truckee-tahoe-airport-cam

  • Uncle Jesse

    “El Nino” may have lost a bit of street cred for the lower 3/4 of Cal based on lots of last year’s predictions. Maybe those surfers who predicted a big 2017 based on waves etc. at end of last year were on to sumthin…

  • RSpringbok

    Using the CNRFC query tool, from now going back 5 days, 57 stations in California have reported one foot of precip or more. All of the 57 are in the Sierras, the foothills, northern and central coast ranges.

    • gedawei

      That CNFRC query tool is amazing for those of us who love to create their own infographs. You can even choose from half a dozen or so map backgrounds, including topo maps.

      • RSpringbok

        I agree, they did an outstanding job with it.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Avalanche #2 reported into an unoccupied house in Alpine Meadows. We all love the snow but this is the real danger with these large storms 1 after another.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
  • Herbalist (Ione)

    Squall line with red center on radar going through Ione right now. Crazy intense rain and wind.

  • Jeff Reynolds

    13.67 inches of rain this storm on the West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada. We are 10 miles uphill east of Nevada City @4114 feet. For a brief period 8 hours ago we had a temp of 33F and heavy snow. Short-lived, the temp has slowly risen to 41F in the past 8 hours with all rain. The vent over our water heater, luckily in the garage is leaking water onto the ceiling. In the ten years we’ve lived here and been keeping weather records we’ve never seen so much horizontal rain. To this i attribute the leakage. Also, some of the strongest winds we’ve seen up here. We have a few dozen 100 foot trees on the property and I’m impressed that none have come down…..so far. Sunday, on our way back to the homestead, we encountered a large cedar, mostly down across Highway 20 near our home. The CHP arrived on the scene and said we must not go past Pine Flat lane. So, I turned onto Pine Flat and immediately left onto a trail I used for wood scavenging about 150 feet from the highway, put Jeanie’s WK2 Jeep into low range dragging a lot of green stuff along the sides through mud holes and snow banks and crept along until past the down. An exciting year, this one. jefe

    • Cap’n

      Right on! I love the western slopes reports, figured you had some high numbers.

    • Charlie B

      I love that area. SR 20? Years ago I was on a forest thinning crew up there. One day I tried to cut down a big madrone that had poison oak creeping up its trunk and two days later I had to go to the ER.
      In 1993 I remember driving down 20 and there was a good 4′ of snow everywhere.
      Has there been any meaningful there recently.

      • Jeff Reynolds

        Charlie, we had 17 feet of snow during the 2010 season here. The most at one time was 6 feet on the back deck. There is a reason for the 100 pound snow load requirement at this altitude. My little Honda 1832, tracked snow blower didn’t have a chance.
        When we move in in 2006 there were 40 inches of snow on the ground and one my truck got stuck I had to use the winch over and over to make a wide turn from tree to tree just to turn around.

  • Herbalist (Ione)

    Some lightening in that squall line. Maybe there’ll be thunder snow up higher.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    this front if this is the front is fast moveing

  • Nathan

    I do not understand the rise in snow levels. I don’t recall any of the AFD’s mentioning this; I would think that as the cold front approaches, temperatures would either stay steady or drop, and heavier precip should mean lower, not higher snow levels.

    Is there some kind of compressional heating going on? Is this tropics-borne moisture that should have hit the state further south per models?

    Someone want to take a stab at explaining?

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      BA had been noting they’d rise for a few hours possibly above lake level before crashing later tonight as the main part of the storm rolls in.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        That’s what I was expecting.

      • gray whale

        not to quibble, but he along with many others mentioned that they’d “briefly rise to 6500′ this afternoon and then drop this evening below lake level.” But they haven’t started to drop yet and it’s 9:30 pm.

        • Cap’n

          It’s been lake level all day, we just had a random maybe half hour or so rise. Snowing heavily again, hope that was it for the rain.

      • Nathan

        “Snow levels are still forecast on the GFS to briefly rise to 6500′ this afternoon and then drop this evening below lake level. The NAM still shows a max of 6000′. If the snowfall stays consistently heavy this afternoon it may not allow enough warm air to move in to raise snow levels, and the heavy snowfall could drag snow levels to lake level the entire time. ”

        So I guess basically the front was about 4-5 hrs slower than forecast.

    • gray whale

      not me! but i second that nothing i read anticipated the rise at all.

    • Charlie B

      It is sleeshing in Reno right now…collecting on grass.

    • Cap’n

      It’s back to snow now and it is really dumping. Also getting some crazy wind gusts and lots of heavy snow falling from trees. We defiantly still have power, I don’t see how.

      • annette johnson

        Your defiance has “willed” your power to stay on 😉

      • An hour or so ago it switched to hail/ice pellets but I’m almost certain we have had zero rain all day and night, the snow I was cutting through to get to my car was surprisingly good, I would soi on it and I hate cement so I have high hopes.

        • Cap’n

          All snow all day here too, between 5-6 feet of it. The rain came out of nowhere earlier, annoyingly wreaking havoc right now.

          • Pfirman

            So did Al get rain is the question. Looked like you were going to dodge the rain bullet.

  • cthenn

    4.25″ since it started last night, and it appears to be over for now. That puts me over the 10″ mark since Jan 1, between downtown Walnut Creek and Rossmoor. My backyard is a steep slope right to the back door (oh joy) and the water is still flowing 1 inch deep across my patio. Drains can barely keep up.

  • Henry

    The squall line passed through a few minutes after 8 PM. The strongest winds were around 7 PM. Los Gatos RAWS had a sustained wind speed of 43 mph (similar to Sunday’s storm) and a peak gust of 66 mph (not as strong as Sunday’s storm, but similar to Saturday’s storm). We received about 2.5″ of rain since yesterday afternoon and 9.5″ since the beginning of the month. There is a good chance we will get to 10″ by tomorrow.

  • Jim Wilcox

    Central Plumas County, 14.38″ since Saturday morning, some snow mostly rain. Heart of the Feather River basin.

    • Charlie B

      Where? Indian Valley?

      • Jim Wilcox

        Genesee

        • StormHiker

          Beautiful country. Need to get back to the Taylorsville Rodeo.

  • Bobby M

    Funny the storm that was suppose to massive had a 2 day total less then the amount of rain I received today, sorry but that’s a bit of a bust

    • Charlie B

      This damn drought will never end. Wait…where is my car??!!??

      • Storm master (Sonora CA)

        i think i saw it floting down the river a joke

    • weathergeek100

      Tell that to everyone experiencing flash flooding in/around there homes now.

    • StormHiker

      Not a bust but it did underperform compared to what was forecast (not sure why people get mad when I point that out). In any case it’s probably a good thing we didn’t get double the amounts in the first AR, as today has shown. Glad we have a little break coming, and looking forward to (hopefully) next week’s systems.

      • Bobby M

        There’s not a break her expecting another half an inch to an inch tomorrow which will mean more sierra snow

  • gray whale

    Been a wild day in Placerville at 2200′. I think we are at about 15″ for the storm and just under 5″ on the day. Some of the heaviest rain and wind right now — I wonder if this is Craig’s Narrow Cold Frontal Rainband? Lots of yellows and oranges passing overhead.

    The blog has been frenetic which is rad but a little intense to keep up with, so here’s some highlights before i go back to being an onlooker:

    -The Cosumnes has gone schizo — the North fork, the quiet one, is more than twice the flow of the Middle. Meanwhile, on the South Fork American, my buddy kayaked from Chili Bar to Folsom Lake *twice* in under 4 hours yesterday at 30,000 cfs. He said it was a once-in-a-lifetime experience. Totally nuts. Seeing the river levels high but nowhere near yesterday (despite more rain) drives home the point that it takes a unique setup to get such big flows.

    -Crazy Cat Creek is a f**king disaster. I’ll joke with Xero about 5 cfs being “monitor stage” but right now it’s my entire backyard, 80′ wide, and I’d estimate the flow to be around 80+ cfs — i.e. what the summertime flow of the Cosumnes is when we go swimming. The chickens have not been fed in 2 days because we can’t cross to get back to the coop.

    -I don’t think gophers will be a problem in the vineyard this year.

    I hope everyone is safe out there. Truly a historic event!

    • tomocean

      Great summary.

    • Charlie B

      Great visual image.

    • Pfirman

      Vinyard? What kind of grapes and where?
      Your buddy is nuts.

      • gray whale

        I don’t own anything, but I farm a bunch of them in el dorado county. that’s how i got into weather!

        • Pfirman

          You mean you manage a vineyard? Still, what varieties?

          • gray whale

            mostly rhones — grenache, syrah, mourvedre, viognier, roussanne — with some zin and some smaller plots of esoteric stuff

          • Pfirman

            I want to talk to you. Would you sell three hundred pounds to a home winemaker?

  • weathergeek100

    Earlier this evening was very wild as the cold front came rolling through Walnut Creek around 7pm. This was quite the grand finale. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen such intense rain and wild winds. Walked from BART to downtown and got very wet due to sideways rain, even with my umbrella. The rain was coming down in sheets and almost looked like a storm scene you might see in TV. It was nuts. It was pretty awesome actually!

    Things have quieted down here now. Water is everywhere. We need a break this weekend.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    up too 3.30″ for this storm

    .41″ of rain from the cold front

  • Bobby M

    Where out of the drought in the northern half of san francisco bay peninsula Charlie B

  • You jinxy mother****er Barney the power just went out for ten minutes, just came back on, I’m blaming you, barn blown and cars submerged part 2 BBQ Event Planner Edition:
    https://youtu.be/B0TzCNvTal4

    • JT (San Jose, CA)

      Please take care and be safe.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Who’s up for some hoops, perfect time to practice splash brothers shots!

      • I almost went over there to chuck a snow ball through but it’s so goddamn deep it would have taken 10 mins there and back.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    The scene at Alpine from North Tahoe Fire.

    https://twitter.com/ntfpd_/status/819054654243897344

  • Fun fact: almost 5% of the 160,000+ comments made in the history of this blog were made in the past 72 hours!

    • Charlie B

      We shall strive for 1,000,000!

    • Pfirman

      Would have been more minus the crash.

    • VK (Sacramento)

      We need to get a bigger blog

    • scott

      If the past two years were like this year, the comments would have been much higher. Ppt has really jazzed everyone on this site and made people happy whereas in droughts we get depressed and not talk much I feel. In the summer I hardly come on when its static for 4 months.

      • StormHiker

        Strangely summer is like winter (elsewhere) for this blog.

      • Ferg Morriss

        As a water manager south of the Delta, the last several years have been utterly brutal. No contract allocation two years in a row was unimaginable when the project was conceived. Assets just slipped away.

        • Pfirman

          How far south?

          • Ferg Morriss

            Central Valley

          • Pfirman

            How far down the Central Valley? Which side, heh?

          • Ferg Morriss

            East Side. CVP

          • Pfirman

            It goes a long way. Why are you being so coy about location?

          • Ferg Morriss

            South and east of Fresno about 30 miles. Citrus-belt

          • Pfirman

            Ah, are you close to David Masumoto, the ‘Epitaph for a Peach’ guy?

          • Ferg Morriss

            General area, I believe they have Kings River supply though.
            My district is upper SJR.
            2015 was lowest runoff in around 1,000 years. This year…?…hope its not the wettest in 1,000 or we are !#%*ed

          • Pfirman

            Heh, can’t win for losing?

          • JMS

            So do you mean San Joaquin Valley since that’s the part of the Central Valley south of the Delta?

    • gedawei

      And it feels like 5% of the rain during the history of WW has fallen in the past 72 hours.

      • gray whale

        ha! so true

      • Scap

        Another fun fact. I do remember when the blog had 25 post a day and most from Dantheweafherman. Good guy but I like how there is comments all over the state now.

        • Sfedblog

          Raindrops keep falling on your head, but I don’t need an update every time one drops. It’s raining outside. I get it.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          Those were the days before this blog used Disqus, etc. I enjoy the fact there are many more people from all over the state who blog on here now.

        • whisperingsage

          That’s how I get my news on CA weather. My news service is pretty lousy.

    • PRCountyNative

      exponential growth!

      • Pfirman

        Yep, put the ‘ex’ in blog almost.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Looks like 80 isn’t opening anytime soon…maybe tomorrow.

    https://twitter.com/caltransdist3/status/819038892615548929

  • Tuolumne

    The snow sensor at Tenaya Lake in Yosemite is now at 102% of the average for April 1! Others in the watershed are not quite so high, but wow!

    http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/PAGE6

    • scott

      Crazy. On the bottom Owens River Cottonwood Lakes is at 192%.

  • scott

    For entertainment I like to watch the CHP traffic info site.

    https://cad.chp.ca.gov/Traffic.aspx

    Scorll down to Truckee and see close of a road 4 times and the rest for hazards. On the Fresno page a mustang tried driving o. 395 by Lee Vining without chains…wtf?

    I didn’t even get to norcal yet. Great site for also checking snow levels from reports of vehicles stuck in snow.

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      I’ve used this many times for different things

  • Nate
  • Danlyle

    Cold front has arrived to Mariposa – Central Sierra Nevada foothills. Leading edge winds are picking up and rain rate is almost 1/2 inch per hour. Accumulation will exceed 20 inches total since Jan 3 within the hour. I’m attaching the 7 day QPF issued on January 3, which forecast 18 to 18.9 inches for my area. I thought that was a little optimistic and outlandish, but it did turn out to be true. Pretty astonishing!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f6a164bf542598212e49dcd71f9206d2386f247ac5f501386c82cde15efcfc58.gif

    • jstrahl

      I know the place, have come though many a time on 140, Yosemite/home bound.

    • StormHiker

      Gonna need to hit the Hideout soon

  • TruckeeLover

    8000 comments, really?

    • rainingintheLBC

      I would estimate at least 4000 of those are from a select 10 people.

    • Someone else

      What % has been deleted? It can get a bit unruly here at times

      • Nathan

        YOU TAKE THAT BACK, SLEETHEAD.

  • Chris

    Morgan Hill, which borders San Jose to the south, reached 24.99″ for the season. The whole season average is 24.68.
    This is the earliest in the year we have reached that milestone.
    Woot Woot!

  • Cap’n

    Power is out but no shortage of entertainment. My neighbor and I just helped a Truckee PD Suburban who was hopelessly stuck out front get pulled out by a plow. An hour ago I watched a fire truck reverse down our street because there was just too much unplowed snow to get through. All the while the snow is getting wetter. Tomorrow will be an epic crappy dig out.

    • Pfirman

      I take it back about the bigger shovel. You need dumptrucks and frontloaders.

      • Cap’n

        I’ve seen three cars stuck in that spot today. One guy twice.

        • Pfirman

          Heh, I got pulled out of the mud today trying to get a look at the Fremont Weir. Weird story too long in the telling.

  • Jon Bartel

    1.3″ so far today in Atascadero, with about .6″ of that falling in the last couple of hours. The ground is supersaturated and even a drizzle gets my backyard pooling up almost instantly. Yesterday I took the kids down to look at the Salinas River and there were people kayaking! Reminds me of when I was a kid back in the early 1990’s…

    • StormHiker

      #FillSantaMargaritaLake

  • Sokafriend
    • Ferg Morriss

      That’s awesome! Thx for sharing.

    • Ferg Morriss

      Drinking from the ultimate fire hose.

    • jstrahl

      Cold front just north of the Bay Area. As of last image.

    • lodule16

      I like these looks from La Paz/Cisese, tx! Had to look up their satellite product page — http://met-bcs.cicese.mx/

      • Sokafriend

        I’ve found the Met based forecasts they post very helpful and the radar, water vapor loop is great for mobile site here in Baja and for easily viewing SW CA and region.I wonder if any WWers have downloaded the Met forecasting software, tools?
        I’ve had beaucoup Discus issues the past couple of days. Also not posting to keep clutter down while N Central CA have so much to share.

  • Pfirman

    Well, wind died down, rain stopped, and I’m going to bed. 5.6 inches for January at this time, most of it the last three days. Hope some SoCal locations are getting wet now. Radar has been down.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      It has been raining lightly here in Orange off and on for most of the day, except for a break late this afternoon, and it picked up again in the evening.

    • Sokafriend

      One lost cloud just blew by and dropped a few drops on Bonita before quietly dissolving back into the mystic.

  • BigBearHiking

    It is raining pretty good out in Claremont, radar shoes nada, very strange

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Things are pretty crazy around Tahoe and Truckee…power reported out in the north and west shore. Another avalanche in the River Ranch area has 89 closed. Truckee has multiple trees down and power outages.

  • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

    I’ll have what the GFS is smoking..Something alone these lines has been brewing for a while now. Euro also on board. Socal is due!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/294dd98e8fa618baa1cc94431c3424bef76ad4845e5320c6aa654dc6be20b267.gif http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017011100/ecmwf_T850_swus_10.png

  • celo

    Raining pretty consistently in santa barbara, especially in the Santa Ynez mountains. 1″ for the mountains vs 0.2″ for the coastal plain.
    Pretty dramatic difference in rainfall amounts, that seem to occur more often in the less dynamic moisture out ahead of the front

  • Pacifica weather observer

    Got a nice thunderstorm moving toward Pacifica. Starting to see some lightning and hear thunder in the distance. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/536446020bc0d7f3574f4edb44383630142e130eda60c4d7fbdc34ed24c13eed.png

  • mattzweck

    here in socal here high desert /Lancaster area cloudy and windy been getting drizzle off and on all evening. clouds have been streaming by really fast. i think we have wind advisory until wed noon. hopefully will get some precip out of this.

  • Jason Dane

    I told you guys we were gonna smacked around nice and good this winter.

  • Pacifica weather observer

    San Francisco getting pounded right now. Still waiting for it to arrive here in Pacifica https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/527d28ea24e6b5155c7c9ad66a298db60e42734a6f78473bdf811d5316ed0a03.png

  • cabeza tormenta

    Stepped outside and was fascinated and a bit alarmed to see a sheet of water flowing over a terrace and a!BOOM! and flash behind me and the neighborhood went dark at 8:55.. was afraid it hit the transformer in front of the house but didn’t see smoke or spark and the power came back at 11:15, no fried computer, all ok, placerville. now seeing a scary line of red on the move east Fairfield to Vacaville, convective indeed! as the comments fly by. smacked around indeed.

  • cabeza tormenta

    Moving fast, it’s already at Woodland now, holding together somewhat.

  • Sublimesl

    Thunder and light show here in Oakland. Awesome. Very loud.

    • Ochotona_Princemps

      The initial rumbles were so continuous I wondered if it was a low flying jet! Crazy weather for the town.

  • aquariumministry

    BAM! Thunder (Oakland)

    • UrbanBizarre (Oakland)

      Lights flickered and this squall is amazing right now.

      • aquariumministry

        Wow and it’s pouring down.

  • Joey B. (Lafayette)

    Thunder in Lafayette too

  • Nate

    Woah just saw a BIG strike over the East Bay.

    • Silent Majority

      that was pretty. although takes a lot of lightning to impress this midwesterner transplant. Sierra summer storms are the only events that remind me of childhood pyrotechnics

    • Allemanni

      Thunder in the San Ramon Valley and now more rain…NOOOOO!

  • UrbanBizarre (Oakland)

    Another strike in Oakland and by far the strongest rain and wind combo of the last week in one final burst. Monsoon-like. Amazing!

    • TK

      Crazy here in Alameda too. It’s just sheets. Guess this is the front coming up on us.

      • AfterCrying

        Seconded on Alameda. It was like someone took a garden hose to the whole back of our house. 😀

  • cabeza tormenta

    Wow, judging by the radar if that’s happening in the east bay, then the line moving on Sacramento will be putting on quite a show.

    • TK

      I hope it holds together for you. It’s amazing!

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Thunder and lightning in Clayton with heavy rain falling..

    • Yolo Reborn

      Quite a show it was! We got absolutely hosed in Davis for about 20-25 minutes! Sheets of rain came down! Quieted down now. That was a stunning finale for the day!

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      That line rolled right over SF and the East Bay. Wish it had made it down to SJC.

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    well that was an amazing three day show. Well done mother nature. Round two on 1/19 please?

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Looks like the ending to an amazing week. I’m thrilled at all of the rain we’ve received in the Bay Area and beyond (Sierra’s – WOW!). We need a break though, and it looks like it’s here. But – the 384 is predicting another march of storms on the 19th.

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    So far for the SFV in SoCal (at least for van nuys) this has been an absolutely wonderful storm so far!! It has been drizzling pretty much all day with intermittent light showers with moderate bursts starting to become more numerous! I love the prolonged rain event we are getting whether it’s light or not it’s very pleasant! So far since this morning I’ve accumulated .24 inches of rainfall!! ^_^ with a steady stream of moisture streaming right into the SFV like a catchers mitt! I feel like this is another big winner winner chicken dinner and the storm’s so far this season have been treating the SFV and Van Nuys in particular very nicely!!

    What amazes me is van nuys has been getting more rain then areas like Burbank and Glendale which normally get more than van nuys being nestled up in the foothills of the SFV allowing for better orographic enhancement.. my theory on why van nuys has been generally getting more rain than other areas of the SFV this season is maybe has to do with the San Fernando convergence zone.. where two sea breezes meet just like the Elsinore convergence zone, but to a lesser degree.. van nuys is situated directly along this convergence zone and also lined up with the canyons to the north and the canyons to the south of the valley.. maybe this convergence zone has been helping to enhance rainfall in the central parts of the valley with most of the storms this year?? It would make some sense I think and might be an explanation of the enhanced rainfall in the central SFV (especially Van Nuys)!

    The storm’s this year have typically has great southerly components with them unlike last year when by the time the storm’s got to SoCal they would be primarily northwest flow! ???? which I absolutely HATE! Very unfavorable flow for the SFV we get the lowest totals with a NW flow type storm and get massively rain shadowed by the transverse ranges.. anyways back to my thoughts about the convergence zone in the SFV.. why I think maybe it’s been a bigger player this year has partially to do with the sub-tropical ridging that the storm’s initially have to battle with when entering into SoCal? Helping to bring in two desperate breezes and allowing for more convergence of the two breezes along the convergence zone? Idk I’m kinda just guessing tbh..

    just a thought, but I would love for somebody to chime in and deliver unto me your thoughts and knowledge of if you think the convergence zone has anything to do with higher rainfall totals or just any thoughts and ideas ? why in general? Or correct me if I’m wrong please cuz Im always trying to learn more.. thanks.. quite a bit of heavy precipitation falling across the entire state right now in various regions at the same time.. what a great storm this has been and really quite powerful in plenty of places.. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/77e4cac02007834f9287a736e2b4804eeea57ccc419be091ce00fcb54433781d.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b1645922f00bb498fb40058534b53f6439a58c84c1f3a7716e8afcdce4288616.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/af259fc43c0bf106666c836229e027b84c1758e98a63b3f58500dce79d9aca09.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f91b4a07e370cff34374b0f78d6b514b3a0812ba382a6f326cf2aca642e408bf.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bc985fbc43381d6ecd03d9b6af078ec957bdcc27597c8d5ddccf27a70a7ce747.png

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Band of moisture finally arrives in SMV. Tuesday’s storm doesn’t amaze me as much as Sunday’s.

  • Bombillo1

    Drove past San Luis reservoir today. It was pouring and the lake no longer has its head hanging. Recovering its self esteem. Maybe 50′ from spillway. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2500c7f5831d99175e81d241c6c9b358c9c036e7610af4daa6cddb91df5c0883.jpg

    • BRP (Ventura)

      Interesting, critical reservoirs up there filling nicely, yet cachuma is at 8% and Casitas is at 35%, both haven’t budged at all with this “normal” rainfall winter. They will not rise with these types of rain storms, only AR type events will save these critical water sources.

      • rainingintheLBC

        Time to make the connection and fill em with state water. Cachuma already has the connection to the state pipeline but it’s a poor one?

    • San Luis has little watershed for such a large reservoir. The spillway is so tiny. Water is pumped in from the forebay and released via tunnels for ag and cities.

      • Bombillo1

        I understand. It is more of an indicator of the state of our water storage as a whole. I suspect full advantage will be taken of our excess and it will be topped off, no?

  • Rusty Rails

    Looks like a fresh avalanche on 80 just west of Truckee in the past couple of hours. CHP is saying sometime Wednesday for opening the whole way.

    A 200′ long 13′ deep slide came down on the railroad between Cisco and Soda Springs. One of the two tracks is clear. Several washouts have closed the alternate line along the Feather River so all trains are coming over the hill with traffic backed up into Nevada.

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    .32 from this storm so far!! And the cold front hasn’t even swept through yet.. what an amazing fun soggy storm for van nuys.. it’s that kind of rain that gets you wet from all sides right when you step outside in it.. bunch of tiny droplets flying from all directions. Everything is saturated in my neighborhood and really hasn’t dried up in weeks in some spots. Soggy is the best word to describe it lots of grass and green stuff growing thorughout my neighborhood like I’ve never seen before! 🙂

    • Same here in Temecula. Ever since those storms in mid December there has been drizzle all day at least a few days of the week and the ground has not dried up. Soggy is definitely a good word to describe it. The hills all around are greened up. Seems like there has been plenty of low level moisture this winter, and the mountains are just wringing it out. Now lets move on to the heavier stuff 🙂 models look good and consistent!

      • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

        Hmmm interesting!! That would be consistent with my theory on the convergence zones helping to boost rainfall totals from the storms sol far this season. As temecula is in a very favorable position for the elsionor convergence zone .. Just like van nuts is in a very favorable position for the San Fernando convergence zone! Yes its thestorms with better low level moisture that always bring about higher rainfall totals.. Even when radar isn’t showing g precip falling in van nuts juts still falling in some form for pretty much the time unless there is a break in the clouds.. Maybe the convergence zones are helping to squeeze out moisture in our favorable locations?

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    .35 from this storm now.. Here’s the rain fall totals for LA so far.. Even van nuys airport has .30 so far.. Probably .31-.33 by now as this was posted at 1 am.. I always get more than van nuys airport. The airport is 4 miles away from my house which can make a big difference in ray fall amounts my neighborhood is situated in the perfect location for the San Fernando convergence zone to work its magic at my house! 🙂 also another theory of mine is a live right next to a giant power plant and one of the most industrial parts of the valley in the heart of the valley.. Also one of the most ghetto parts lol.. So all of those things combined with also my cloud whispering capabilities helps to enhance the rainfall at my house! 😉 I would love to hear other theories too! 😀 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2435a35de13bf59f1a0c910d2512d99e9c0590d3ec2ffa4f3181f9873a06f6bf.png

  • Fairweathercactus

    My pour cactus has no idea what is going on. Last year it bloomed in late February. This year it might not at all if it rains to much.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      Maybe you need to move it to a dry spot of your yard such us under a patio cover as long as it gets some good light. Cacti can suffer root rot if they get too much water.

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      Move your cactus to Mordor

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    So I’m officially over 9 inches now since October in Van Nuys, CA! I’ve almost got more rain than I did all year last year!! Wow! What a great rain season so far.. it’s just been consistent! Here re the total seasonal rainfall totals thus far in the Los Angeles area! A lot of locations are already past half their annual average!! It would be hard to not hit at least average rainfall at this rate IMO. 🙂 what a great rainy season this has been for us in pretty much all of California now! Cheers! Let’s keep the good times rollin’! I’m st .41 now in the rain bucket with a season total of 9.03 inches since October! 😀 lots of green stuff growing new ny neighborhood like I’ve never seen before! Also some minor street flooding ATTM and there’s been puddles and mud that have enough havent dried for quite some time https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/77b515bd5fa1256bb0433329a882d1ae83400de9e3fc31bf76eb9e2fcab72dc8.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/565834333d9eaafc284267b04f189f0165f5ebef7630791ba3ff42f3b6bc3d99.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/854c7c9982fdb9c546a7a1705b5157c7fe152175dcd7c52f47fcde418d3c99cf.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ab85dccc449a372e6fc6fbfb73f44ed24009290c5a5d40dc458da053240951b0.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a5cd9e5720358d9447fbbaaadf2de1b3af0eee2a086f8b84cec039998fc34465.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9e6ee33324bfa635bc4bfdbe7cb3a0b317625aec276c595ffd3c857860041eef.jpg

    • What a difference 32 miles can make. We finished last 24 hrs. at .20

  • RunningSprings6250

    36F rain rain rain all night – now it’s only suppose to snow 2″-6″ tomorrow.

    Love the constant moisture.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    i ended up with 3.47″ of rain on JAN 10th

    + .39″ after mind night

  • Broncos 88

    2.0 inches in South Reno overnight. That is impressive.

    • Charlie B

      The creek behind the house is pounding again, we might be at our seasonal average

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        How are things in the south end of Reno? I saw lots of info and warnings bouncing around late last night.

        • Charlie B

          I think things are ok. Broncos 88 lives down there, as do a couple of his kids.

  • kipling

    Wow – the 06z is showing a VERY powerful and wet storm for Southern California inside the 10-day window! If it materializes, we could see NorCal type issues in Los Angeles by the 20th!

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    now up too .78″ of rain from last post 38 ms ago

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    I got 0.42″ of rain in the last 24 hours

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    This is crazy, Casper, WY went from 40F to 8F in 12 hours with very strong winds as well. The same storm that is impacting California is impacting the Intermountian West

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1b7200e8525392b237cdef5d9883e8cb7826728d5b59bf537128a752afe62b2a.png

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    the GFS has 2 nic storms and most the same copy cat too this weekend storms

    this is out too 234 hrs from both storms

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/92194bb74f0b75b6198749bd33ba30a1d9ce62e2ed12ecf451ea7dba9b673b43.png

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      That is good! I want even more rain!

  • Unbiased Observer

    Welp, the party ended here last night…a big goose egg, zip, zero, zilch. Had a good run of it for a while…oh well.

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      You got rain shadowed?

      • Unbiased Observer

        Big time, but the models did predict this…was still hoping for at least a tenth.

    • NJDevil

      yup, same up here in the mountains 🙁

    • whisperingsage

      Where?

      • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

        He is from Bakersfield, CA

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)
    • tomocean

      I suspect that the storm that hits on January 20th is going to mess up the entire country.

    • If that verifies I will be really happy at 00Z Jan 20th.

  • Yolo Hoe

    Southwest edge of Davis is at 8.08″ precipitation for January — interesting that Pfirmin, a mere 10 miles north, has received ‘only’ 5.6″.

    Though trivial compared to the challenges faced by our Sierra-based colleagues, I can report that my bicycle commutes yesterday during mid-afternoon and early evening (coincidentally during dramatic passage of the CF) were fun and intense with the wind/rain — a real trip!

    Current conditions in Davis are 51F, barometer 29.76 and slowly rising and light breeze from the SW.

    • Yolo Hoe

      Edit: just got quick 0.01″ at 0700 — no colorful Valley sunrise in Davis as still a dense, ominous gray mass to the east over the Sierra.

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    Seems to be another 2″ in the gauge this morning. Still raining,

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    we are at 10.84″ of rain for JAN and all of that is from the 1st 11 days of the new year

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      Wow! That is a lot!

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    NEW MELONES RESERVOIR have made some big jumps this week on JAN 7th it was 889ft be for the event on JAN 8th it jump too 896ft on JAN 9th it jump too 904ft and on JAN 10th it made other big jump too 910ft so the lake is filling fast

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    The hills has been green since late October in the Santa Maria Valley

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    So far I have gotten 3.61″ of rain this month

  • Cap’n

    Anyone up here have power? Going on 9 hours now. Could be a lot longer. From what I can gather on FB, all of Truckee and North Lake are out.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    from JAN 7th too JAN 11th we have had 8.36″

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      You better buy a boat soon

      • RunningSprings6250

        His name will be “I’m on a Boat”

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    As Cap’n noted below anyone looking for info out of the Truckee/Tahoe region it will be tough. 80 is still closed, Rusty Rails mentioned another slide on 80, last night 89 had a slide at River Ranch, also another slide in Alpine Meadows into unoccupied homes. With the power out close to 12 hours online scanners and webcams are all down now. I’d imagine info will be slow to trickle out.

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      not all cams this one at the air port is on back up power

      http://tahoetopia.com/webcam/truckee-tahoe-airport-cam

    • April hope brings May nope

      As for me, I’m going down the Feather River Canyon. Gotta go down, Donner Summit is closed. Another eighty miles and I sure am lonesome; I’ll be late getting home.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    Now my YTD water year since October 1st rainfall total is 9.24″

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    The sierras are 135% of average so far

  • Bombillo1

    5% of all comments made in last 72 hrs? Getting crowded around here.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WLoYFvbR0XY

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)
  • RandomTreeInSB

    1.1″ since yesterday, season total 8.4″, we’re 7 weeks ahead of last season!

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      1.38″ 1/8
      1.78″ 1/10

      Keep the momentum…

  • Last nights storm arrived late and did not quite live up to forecasts (NWS Oxnard .5″-1.0″) but it provided another .44″ to the months and seasons totals. Ahead of last January’s total already and that was a good month.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Update from the Town of Truckee
    http://local.nixle.com/alert/5823088/

    It is highly advisable to not drive through uncleared streets and to limit travel unless absolutely necessary. Due to the heavy snow fall amounts, Cal-Trans has restricted SR-267 to 4-wheel drive vehicles only (they are not allowing vehicles with chains over Brockway Summit). This is example of the issues being faced region wide by all public service

    • RunningSprings6250

      R3!!!!

  • Charlie B

    Reno has received 7.77″ since October 1. Seasonal average for the entire water year is 7.66″. This has to be unprecedented. We are 3 weeks into winter.

    • Bartshe

      Beware of the ghost of ’97.

      • Charlie B

        I’m beginning to worry about the ghost of 1862. Reno AFD is talking about a “mango express” next week…straight from the Philippines. I guess a pineapple express only goes to Hawaii.

      • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

        Go back to the shadow.