Northern California storm onslaught continues; widespread flooding likely this evening

Filed in Uncategorized by on January 10, 2017 3,368 Comments

Recent storms set stage for high-impact event today

Another powerful storm will bring heavy rain, high winds, and high-elevation blizzard conditions to Northern California. NCEP via UCSD.

This will be a brief update, but given the widespread significant storm impacts expected later today I felt a quick post was in order.

A very warm and wet “Pineapple Express”-type atmospheric river (with origins in the subtropics) brought widespread rainfall to California over the weekend, even at very high elevations in the Sierra Nevada. Flooding, mudslides, and avalanches shut down most major travel corridors through Northern California on Sunday for at least some period of time, and a number of larger rivers have approached or exceeded flood stage.

Early model forecasts for this weekend storm were remarkably on-target, especially with regard to the large-scale storm details. One modest mitigating factor that prevented the weekend storm from bringing even more severe impacts was the slight lag between the arrival of the deepest atmospheric moisture and the arrival of the cold front. This “phasing issue” meant that while orographically favored higher elevation areas saw the expected prodigious rainfall totals, areas near sea level or “rain shadowed” by mountain saw less precipitation than otherwise would have occurred.

Soils are completely saturated and rivers already running very high following this weekend’s storm, however, and now a new storm is bearing down on California this afternoon. Since virtually all precipitation that falls over the next 24 hours will immediately turn into river/stream runoff, the flood threat later today may actually be higher in many places that during the weekend storm.

 

Very heavy rain, locally very strong winds, and epic blizzard conditions in Sierra Nevada

Northern California, particularly the Bay Area and central Sacramento Valley, will be under a strong” jet streak” this evening, enhancing precipitation and wind potential. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Today’s storm will bring an wide range of severe weather conditions to Northern California over the next 18 hours.

Steady soaking rains will intensify this evening, possibly culminating in a very intense burst of precipitation at some point tonight as the strong and fairly convective cold front passes through. This steady ramp-up of precipitation intensity, followed by a final burst of rain rates possibly approaching 1 inch/hour, will likely lead to widespread flooding given already wet antecedent conditions. In some parts of the Bay Area, Sacramento Valley, and Sierra Nevada foothills, life-threatening flash flooding of streams and smaller rivers could result. In addition, larger rivers from the Santa Cruz Mountains northward to the Mendocino coast may respond rapidly to this additional rainfall, possibly leading to the highest flood levels in years. The Sacramento River will reach its highest level in at least a decade, flooding the Yolo Bypass. Large and dangerous mudslides have already started to occur in many places, and this risk will remain very high for at least the next 24-48 hours in areas of steeper terrain and near recent wildfire burn scars.

Very strong winds are also possible near the time of cold frontal passage this evening. In the hills and in other wind-prone locations, wind gusts in excess of 65 mph are possible (and winds greatly in excess of 100 mph are likely on remote, high elevation peaks in the Sierra Nevada). Of potentially even greater consequence will be wind gusts over 50 mph in less wind-prone urban areas in the Bay Area and Sacramento region, where widespread power outages and tree damage is likely. Wind impacts with this storm will likely be more significant than with the Sunday storm.

With strong storm-scale dynamics, increasingly cold air aloft, and a fairly well-defined cold frontal passage this evening, thunderstorms will be possible (especially near the coast). Some of these could even approach severe limits, bringing torrential downpours and very strong wind gusts.

In the Sierra Nevada, a blizzard of epic proportions is currently unfolding. In contrast to the Sunday storm, snow levels are now below well below pass level in most places. Multiple feet of snow have already fallen at the highest elevations, at it’s likely that areas as low as Lake Tahoe could see 5+ feet (!) of snowfall, with much more than that up at 8000+ feet. Very strong winds are also occurring. Travel across the Sierra Nevada range will be dangerous (and essentially impossible) over the next 24 hours. Snowfall of this magnitude hasn’t been seen in years in most populated parts of the Sierra Nevada, which may elevate impacts even further.

Once again, Southern California will see some rain out of this storm, but since totals will remain on the low side no significant problems are expected.

 

Long range: a much-needed break, but more storms on horizon?

Long range ensemble forecast: more storms to come after modest 3-5 day break. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

I’ll keep this section short: after another weak to moderate (and colder) system on Wednesday/Thursday (which could bring snow to the foothills and isolated thunderstorms elsewhere, including Southern California), things should dry out for 3-5 days. This will allow rivers to recede and soils to drain a bit. But both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that an active pattern over the North Pacific may redevelop by next week. Stay tuned!

For updates on today’s storm, follow Weather West on Twitter!

 

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  • Unbiased Observer

    NWS Hanford’s dynamic night crew forecast discussion:

    .”DISCUSSION…Surface and satellite analysis continue to show the
    2kft or so deck of stratus across the San Joaquin Valley (SJV).
    This cloud deck will likely last until Tuesday when the next
    system moves in. This will continue to limit diurnal swings in
    temperature across the SJV. Outside the SJV…clear to mostly
    clear conditions will dominate.

    The timing of the pattern change is still the big focus in the
    short term. Guidance has slowed things down which will keep
    showers out of the forecast until later on Wednesday. However…by
    Thursday most of the area will see some showers.

    This pattern should keep some showers in the area through at least
    weekend. Within that pattern there are three systems moving
    through…with small breaks in the showers as shortwave ridging
    temporarily slides in between the systems.”

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
    • RunningSprings6250

      Any link from this site I’m getting a redirect link blocked message – anyone else? Only via mobile though.

      • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
        • RunningSprings6250

          Yea still blocked, something must be up with mi phone.

          • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

            Virus?

          • mattzweck

            Check your browser settings. Make sure not blocking anything. Virus scanner.

  • PRCountyNative

    Name this mountain!

    Blog is dead this morning – what is it, Monday?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b1f15601860cd4c70c32434ceb8f7202d3c0900267b6954a665010c4da1cf7c4.jpg

    • SBMWill

      Lassen

      • PRCountyNative

        Good Guess – NO!!

        • Sfedblog

          Mount Saint Helens? I see that large section gone on one side.

          • PRCountyNative

            Very Good Guess…… No!

    • nunbub

      Shasta?

      • PRCountyNative

        Good Guess! No!

    • PRCountyNative

      Photo from Thursday, if that helps…

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      The Lonely Mountain?

    • Siernev

      Bachelor?

      • PRCountyNative

        WINNER!

    • Charlie B

      Fuji-San (wrong cars…never mind)

    • nunbub

      Mammoth?

    • Tom

      Mt. Baker

    • Cap’n

      Signal Hill?

      • Pfirman

        You wish. Hell, so do I.

    • PRCountyNative

      Dingdingdingding! We have a winner!

      The answer is…

      Mt Bachelor!

      They had a pretty historic dump last week after an excellent powder week before that. The cold made it to and a little past them, and the upper edge of some AR moisture.

  • CHeden

    While everyone was enjoying the weekend (and rightly so), things out in the Pacific have been quite busy. ATTM, a trans-Pacific SW-NE oriented jet/AR is aimed at the NW coast of BC and the Alaska panhandle. To the NW of the AR, a powerful 964mb low is wrapped up in the GoA, and to the SSE of the AR a blocking high off is starting to weaken and “roll over”. Contributing to the high’s eventual demise is the upper low/trough that has been near/south of SoCal for the last few days and is now starting to eject east (see 1st image).
    Over the course of today and tomorrow, the offshore ridge will continue to erode with the AR getting depressed south. By Wednesday, the AR will be dragging south over California and will be bringing a relatively brief period of warmer air and precip within the southern edge of the AR. As the AR continues to shift south, cyclonic flow associated with a digging trough along with colder air will filter in in back of the AR and snow levels will drop dramatically as a potent CF sets up. ATTM, the speed of the AR/trough will be a key determining factor in how much rain/snow we get (see 2nd image).
    By Thursday, the aforementioned trough will eject east with the parent low hanging behind and taking up residence in the NE GoA. With the GoA low in this position and HP depressed to the south and displaced westward, a strong mostly W-E flow will develop with at least more two more moisture-laden storms getting directed over California as part of a Rossby wave pattern (see 3rd image). As many have been noting, the third storm due Sunday nite thru Tuesday looks to be the strongest as the remains of the GoA LP pivots inland bringing high winds, low snow levels and copious rain/snow to all of California. The current precip projections are quite impressive given the good dynamics with relatively low snow levels and relatively quick speed (forcing) of the fronts/waves as they drop through the Golden State (see 4th image).
    By the 24th, things should quiet down, but I’m not bought off at all on a prolonged dry spell. The GFS has for a few runs been depicting the Rossby-like pattern continuing in one form or another…but ATTM it is utterly impossible to predict if/when any disturbances riding E will dip down to Calif. (or stay north?).
    My bet is that since all Fall and Winter we’ve seen these type of patterns evolve where AR’s are followed by lows dropping down from the north, we’ll continue to see the same thing again. And, based again on recent history, it should take no longer than a week at most to get the Pacific re-loaded with a new AR aimed at the NW with renewed storminess to follow.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/51a14e57451eceb8bbdc3bfbd9eabc39e8a6f74e7d6407764834fb6eedeec8f4.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0e7e8a6eaf78a00a966fd7e6842e883b0e2309ce0217c09ed721c79dd4b988c6.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7d20229cd67f36fd93399fb82c1dfd325c24eca160ed664d0ef0a3b1ae5b4b69.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c22755bda09fb90351860fe5402448525c2f3e197d73f7398b8afc3ed7087d69.png

    • nunbub

      I’ll take two of your forecast, thanks

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      The Magenta snake attacks California again!!

      • RunningSprings6250

        The smoke monster!

    • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

      Excellent analysis as always! Should be an interesting week.

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      I honestly would not be surprised if we a weak cut off low impacting Southern California next week during the brief dry spell

      • CHeden

        Interesting point.
        If the pattern is indeed repetitive, then the theory of persistence would seem to back up your suspicions. Will be interesting to see if it pans out.

        • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

          The Baja Cut off lows can surprise us just like around New Years a couple weeks ago.

    • PRCountyNative

      I was just going to say… Persistence is more than just a theory! It’s a good forecast, often, and can even be a guide for knowing how life will unfold. It’s more powerful than many realize!

    • Yolo Hoe

      What a great synopsis — in terms of both technical, educational content as well as evidence-based optimism — thank you! Regarding the optimistic forward looking statement, I recall you and a few others on this blog commenting in early autumn on the ‘trofiness’ of the summer pattern and that it could be a signal for our winter.

      Here in far SW Davis: fogged in at 34 F with no wind and barometer at 30.15 and slowly rising.

      • John Curtis

        The trough pattern was my statement. It is known in scientific circles as the John Curtis Coastal Fog Theory.

        • Yolo Hoe

          I’ve been searching the literature for appropriate citations — can you send me the link for the primary reference? Was thinking could be in PNAC (proceedings of national academy of Curtis), but couldn’t locate the journal.

          • Sfedblog

            It’s in the Book of Genesis when Curtis created the Earth.

          • Yolo Hoe

            Ah — heard that one struggled with the peer review and had to go open source

          • CHeden

            LOL!!!
            Goodness, I hated doing paper reviews (back in the day).
            WAYYY too much math to sort through….especially when you knew ahead of time that the conclusion was tenuous (at best) and it was your responsibility to point out “why”.

          • John Curtis
      • CHeden

        Thank you for the kind feedback!
        Always appreciated when a bit of effort get’s acknowledged (even though it could be a pile of hoooey)!
        Anyway, thanks also for recalling the general troughiness theme we were clueing in on back in the Fall (and even Summer)….and that it didn’t look to be a transient condition, but rather reflecting a whole new atmosphere/oceanic base state was possibly evolving.
        We won’t know for at least a year or two before we can even begin discussing if a base-state change is/has occurred, but at least for now, the “change” sure has benefitted California.

        • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

          Remember February 2011? California had some very cold storms and some strong storm systems as well.

          • nunbub

            And January was bubkis! February and March came in to save the season

          • CHeden

            Correct!

          • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

            June 2011 was very wet for that time of year.

          • CHeden

            Perhaps.
            But, if a new base-state is indeed evolving, then analogs based on other base-states would be of minimal value (IMHO).

    • rainingintheLBC

      Great analysis, thanks!

    • jstrahl

      Thanks once again for great and cogent analysis.

      • CHeden

        Hope you get enjoy what could be a very active period.
        A really nice setup for a glimpse into “the old days” for us weezers.

        • jstrahl

          Yep, been a LONG time! Like 20 years or so.

          • CHeden

            At least.
            Perhaps longer.

    • I have hedged for a ‘normal’ February more than go long on a wet one for all of CA. Like you said the Pacific NW will have the happy face next month. Cottonwood included! :))

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Hell I might not have to put my 2 cents after reading that! Really nice input on this upcoming stuff. This winter has been so fun to watch and forecast.

      • CHeden

        Oh no, by all means put in your two cents (a dime is better)!
        I greatly enjoy your summaries as well.
        Your knowledge of the SoCal micro-climates is way beyond my mine….and would be very pertinent to the sensible weather you guys might be getting.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Thanks and I appreciate that, I actually should be typing up something by the time the 6Z is out tomorrow morning, probably will post it with the new blog update from Daniel, depending on the evolution the 4 systems…

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    Went down to a chilly 34F this morning

  • Charlie B

    We went up to the Longboard races at Plumas Eureka Ski Bowl. Took some nice pictures but they are all sideways so I didn’t bother to post. About 6′ of snow there. Most since 2011. Quite the crowd with a honkey tonk band, blazing fire and period costumes. And lots of beer. The only downer was that it was still under the stratus level. Speaking of which, this stratus we have is higher than in the past and even Virginia City at 6300 feet is socked in. I’m going to try to go somewhere above it today for some vitimin D.

    • Crank Tango

      “Dope is King!”
      I love the old ski race(?) posters in the museum there.

      • Charlie B

        That is the name of the Brewing Lair’s signature ale. Dope stands for the substance they used on their boards to make them go faster. The old lodge at the ski area has great pictures and a real nice circular fireplace blazing in the middle.

    • Yolo Hoe

      The stratus layer was just awesome this weekend looking west from Northstar — view of the Pacific Crest peaks in bright sunshine ‘floating’ on that layer was mesmerizing — one of these days I’ll figure out how to post photos on this site.

      • CHeden

        It’s real easy.
        Just click and drag a pic into the bottom of the comments dialogue box. (if the pic size is not too large). Or, click on the little avatar and search for your pic on your computer (or device) then click OPEN.
        For Hi-Res pics (large file size) and screen grabs, I paste them first into PowerPoint and save the project in JPEG format. PPT then saves each slide as a separate image with greatly reduced file sizes.
        You can also size and orient the photos to correct any rotation problems, BTW.
        Hope this helps.

        • Yolo Hoe

          Thank you!!

          • CHeden

            Sure. Show us how it worked out!
            Looking forward to some pics!!

      • Crank Tango

        I use the flickr app on my phone, it uploads everything now but they are all private until I make them public. So all I have to do is make a pic public and then paste it here.

        It used to be easier, but the system got improved.

        • Yolo Hoe

          Thanks!!

  • cabeza tormenta

    Posted this last night @ 10:00 when sensible people might have missed it,
    google earth screenshot. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2ce2a04e3725c046f0bba5376361a9ebd052b684543fe630a145c9b895924d9d.jpg

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    looks like we could see a long dry spell could we end up with a dry FEB?

    LOL this has i said that i see a storm LOL i love it

    • Tom

      Did you read CHeden’s thoughtful discussion just below?

      • Patrick from Stockton

        I was just going to say the same thing. I highly doubt we are going to see anything close to RRR this season. CHeden’s thoughtful explanation below sums up what I think exactly. Nothing in recent trends would even suggest this happening IMHO.

      • Storm master (Sonora CA)

        i saw

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      I’d expect a reprieve from the storms for several days. Even during some of our wettest winters we had dry spells in the midst of them.

      I fully expect plenty of “We’re doomed!” and “The RRR is back!” comments here no later than 5 days into it though. 😉

      • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

        With the potential upcoming 7-10 day dry spell. Some on here will scream “RRR!”

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          Yup. Count on it.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        I think we all need to take a deep breath and remember the RRR is quite different than the normal winter 2+ week of dry weather. I am sure everyone on here remembers some warm Febs where we’re outside enjoying the weather then 2 days later we see storms roll in and the temps drop quickly.

      • Charlie B

        2010-11 had a 5 week dry spell. If it hadn’t Squaw might have topped 1,000 inches as opposed to the measly 800 they recorded at 8200.

    • I really doubt February will be like January as far as precipitation amounts. SoCal is going to get soaked and snowed big time towards the end of the next week though. Is that what you are saying in your last sentence? Or do you see a storm in early February?

  • cabeza tormenta
  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    i think has we head in to the 1st week of FEB we will see a major pattern change what kind too soon too tell but some in too keep a eye on after a nic break in the weather

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    And boom as everyone worries about a dry spell Steve Paulson sends out this tweet–
    https://twitter.com/SPaulsonKTVU/status/821039701427523584

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      Just like I expected

    • nunbub

      The RRR is ba…oh, wait…

      • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

        Its the TTT

        • Skye H.

          Terribly tenacious trough?

          • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

            Thanks could not find any T words

    • nunbub

      Introducing the RRT – Ridiculously Resilient Trough 🙂

    • matthew

      I just want to see the sun for a couple days. And maybe a few days above 40F.

      • JMS

        Same here in Fresno. We are back to the January gloom that we get between storms. No Sun unless we are getting a storm moving in or out. One more reason to look forward to rain! Of course, a quick drive to the hills will get me to the sun, but it’s sometimes hard to remember when it is so gloomy out.

        • matthew

          I expect it in the Central Valley. But I am at 6100′.

        • Danlyle

          Here is the stratus layer you speak of, from above last evening. Central Valley is an ocean of cloud. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8726a6ff756858d4135a31c50142597f6b22dfdbda3d68c6a186bbda6b886989.jpg

          • nunbub

            Growing up in the CV, I kinda miss the fog. Glad to see it’s made a return to normal.

          • Tuolumne

            Having spent a few winters in the valley, I never liked it. But when it went away I finally realized how important it is to keeping the area moist in winter between storms.

            Still, I much prefer the coastal fog because it’s fresh air off the ocean, not recycled polluted air that’s been sitting around getting worse, sometimes for weeks at a time.

          • nunbub

            True, the smog is rough. Especially for an asthmatic like me.

      • maddogokp

        Stare at this for 2 days. Best I can doo. Trapped in Maui, missing the snow. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b3f451d5f7a2fa04818bb55d624569283cefbc818a2fc33c65845e85f6d53d36.jpg

    • Patrick from Stockton

      I was thinking the same thing as i was looking at the 12z, but I didn’t comment on it because it’s so far out. But could be beginning of another trough, and given the trend this year, could very well happen.

    • CHeden

      Always good to have S.P. in your corner. Seems like he’s kind’a leaning in my direction about a short dry period at the very end of January.

  • Charlie B

    Diary 1/16

    Camped last night at a bend on the truckee. other parties tacked a sign to a tree calling the place boca.
    it was cold but we stayed warm because mother had stacked a lot of wood. back to beans and pork. cloudy but not to cold and no snow, but trail is getting bad. animal tracks in snow…maybe we will get luky and shoot something
    hope wether holds. even small storm will be trouble now we are so week. the indian scouts we named joe and bill stay to themselves and seem to watch us carefully.
    will probably have to lay over for a day or to to gain strength for the final push.

    • nunbub

      Well the good news is that the Donner Party survivors were found January 17th…170 years ago, but still good luck!

      • Charlie B

        Who?

        • nunbub

          Donner Party – the unfortunate travelers caught in massive snow storms while they tried to cross the Sierra Nevada in winter. Famous (maybe infamous) for resorting to cannibalism whence they ran out of supplies.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donner_Party

    • Tuolumne

      Weather trivia question: What weather statistic is Boca known for? Hint: It’s likely to not be believed by many people due to being obviously impossible under stereotyped views of what California is like.

      No fair looking it up. If you know the answer, say it!

      • Charlie B

        Record all time cold temp in California. That’s why the settlers had to have lots of wood to burn last night.

        • Tuolumne

          We have a winner! That low was recorded during the big freeze of 1937 – 45 degrees F. below zero (-43 C.).

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    Gotta love that compact low pressure system doing a direct hit on SoCal as depicted by the 12z GFS for 1 week from today. Too early to trust those kind of specifics, but if it were to verify, this would be a great snowmaker for the local mountains – notice the 540dm line straddling the LA area, and a setup that makes the most out of local topography for excellent orographic enhancement.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9a371392ce62903f869461b8da522332616c7c7e958e2647709c1b9eba4dd496.png

    • CHeden

      What a change!
      Here’s a look at the 168 hr. solution from the 06Z (1st pic) and 12Z (2nd pic) runs.
      Notice that the low at the base of the west coast trough is shifted 1,000 miles south? A drier scenario for the Cent Sierra, but much more for SoCal with unusually low snow levels (3rd pic https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eeeab55583edf1a199f6a27c1b2a7cc388ff447b4b9751638f1ee91b68477982.png ).
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/03ab407e5eeb91ce04cf5e8dbd60edbf5f1eceb10d4475f79f452a29442b4b2f.png
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4aef45eb9703f70f0569bfe1b5793af0bb276f8f393a5ce82ab83e2ecadf4317.png

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        A season that is giving to the whole state, as opposed to SoCal being outside the candy store looking through he window watching NorCal enjoying it all. 😉

        • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

          And that ugly ridge (almost) nowhere to be seen!

        • CHeden

          LoL..and good analogy.
          As you probably know, lows that remain intact as they drop down the coast then pivot inland over SoCal is a classic setup for copious rainfall. In years of rain-max over SoCal, it is usually the result of such patterns setting up with low after low dropping down the coast then nailing SoCal.
          Let’s see first if this particular run is a true signal of a major change in thinking or if it’s an outlier.

      • matthew

        And what the 18Z will show is anyone’s guess.

        • CHeden

          LoL!!
          Yes, let’s see what it shows. These last two runs were miles (literally) apart.

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      dont get you hops up on seeing that low on the next run that low you see is now on the GFS and it was not there on the 06z and 00z GFS so there for that low may end up getting drop on the next run but well see

      • CHeden

        As Socalwxwatcher already alluded to, it’s all conjecture and speculation ATTM. Way too early to say anything beyond it’s a possibility.

        • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

          Those long dry spells have not really materialized this season besides the November dry spell we had 2 months ago.

          • RunningSprings6250

            and the 12z doesn’t have much of a dry spell in the long range 😉

            As was the case with the last storm series that focused on norcal – it’s wise to stay in the now and look at the active weather over the next week, THEN it’ll be a good time to see what may or may not occur after it all…

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Just taking it one model run at a time. It’s not like I’m posting a 384hr chart while saying “Holy we cows!”… 😉

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      Damn this might save me gas $ if this verifies…the local snowpack is back!

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    where are they going too put all the new snow that falls? it looks like the mts will see other 5 too 10ft of snow in some areas

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Hopefully it will stick around until it starts melting in the Spring, and they’ll put it in the reservoirs this Summer.

    • Cap’n

      We’ve been melting it down in 8 ounce increments on top of our wood burner for drinking water. At this rate the back porch will be visible by sometime in mid February.

    • Bartshe

      don’t count your snowpiles before they fall

    • Siernev

      Yeah, good question. Drove to Lake Tahoe yesterday and they’re *still* clearing the roads. US 50 in SLT had a huge snow “median” which a plow-sized snowblower (name?) was blowing into dump trucks, presumably to be deposited on AlTahoe’s driveway. Probably nothing special for Tahoe denizens, but it was super cool for me to watch.

      Drove back to Placerville via Carson Pass. The pass, and especially the spur, have phenomenal amounts of snow. Pics of the pass…

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9e82e1e4c7bd450b9fb775037825baedc2330bd3314d9ab6833ff1b491a87283.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a0e960a74610bd8fa413ee0db983c2d6644ab05db30bb018b11fe884d0207968.jpg

      • CHeden

        Get any pics of Caples Lake?
        It can look spectacular when frozen.

        • Siernev

          Unfortunately no pics. But it was frozen and did look spectacular!

      • Cap’n

        They just finally cut the berms in my neighborhood yesterday so two cars can actually get by again. With the cold there has been virtually no melt.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      This large snowfall isn’t out of the “norm” for Tahoe, it takes some time but they get through it. In many downtown areas they truck it away overnight loaders and blowers load up trucks and move it to disposal areas to melt. Many homes are designed with “Snow load” areas so when driveways and roofs get cleared they can put it in a place safely. It has become more crowded over the last 10 years with more homes built and some “Flatlander” architects that aren’t fully prepped in the snowfall demands.

      It has actually gotten better over the last 15-20 years, previously when most homes were cleared with loaders they’d make massive snow piles at the end of each driveway (CrashingOut posted a pic similar to this a few days ago). Now most companies use blowers and it’s easier (and safer) to move the snow around without the massive piles/mountains on driveways.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    I have noticed that this sun angle is slightly higher now and the days are getting a little longer.

    • Crank Tango

      That’s weird. Is that supposed to happen?

    • lodule16

      That’s weird … lot of the models are forecasting almost complete darkness on Friday…

      • Tuolumne

        I just experienced many hours of darkness, ending just a few hours ago. Scary!

        • Siernev

          I know! Every time it gets dark I start freaking out that it’s never gonna get light again. Hope I don’t jinx it, but so far the light’s always returned.

    • I’ll most likely have a new post tomorrow AM.

      • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

        Any sneak peaks on what you are going to talk about?

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          I have a hunch it will be about “progressively stronger storms will bring widespread heavy precip,wind to CA “

      • Storm master (Sonora CA)

        you for got too say low snow levels in that post above

        • RunningSprings6250

          You tell em!

  • stormy10

    what do the snow levels look like for socal for the Sunday/Monday system?

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      try asking that on friday or sat when we are closer we are still talking about a week out here so we dont no

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      I’d guess a pretty standard 5-6000′ pre front, 4000′ post…might be lower because it’s right on the heels of a cold system. Definitely will effect passes…

  • DelMarSD

    There’s a hydrology section!

    • RunningSprings6250

      Hey, someones late to the party! 😀

      • DelMarSD

        Yeah, just woke up.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Don’t worry so was I lol.

  • Cap’n

    In regards to the “where will the snow go?” question posted earlier.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2ea65aed1faf61cbd4b51e4e744d0d79b25e572a7c9e2ab74b150cc2498e2744.png

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    YAY the low cloud deck is clearing

  • 310weatherguy

    Finally made the move up to Pinon Pines, Frazier Park area and almost three weekends in a row of snow. The old locals of the mountain are saying this is what the norm 7 years ago use to be. Only down side is at&t has no cell coverage up there. Been missing my lurking time on the WW blog but it’s a good trade off. Three to four days of more snow forecasted for this weekend. So happy to see SoCal finally getting much needed rain in the greater LA area and surrounding areas. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ec278c17f4a9a793fb37cc17dfa0a4fd1ea8ac5647e66d6dd8169caf79c478b2.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a812577569a7024de62a225edd119a9de66134813455ee109e952f5c264170e8.jpg

    • Pfirman

      Cool. Where does the water come from up there?

    • Tuolumne

      Nice area, but be ready for the San Andreas Fault to let loose one day. It runs right through those valleys, from Gorman through Frazier Park and Lake of the Woods.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
    • mattzweck

      i told alot of friends last year before i left for another job that is was going to be a wet year in 2017 i was right on.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
    • BRP (Ventura)

      I spent a week up in McCall Idaho during the Christmas break, and holy cow, that was a winter wonderland up there! Drove my 4×4 Tacoma with the fam and once we got Winnemuca NV, it was real winter driving. Temps never got above 20 and lows were below zero. The cool thing about Idaho driving was unlike CA they don’t enforce chains, if you have 4×4 you are good to go, but admittedly, as a coast dweller,it was hours of white knuckle driving getting to McCall! Killer place, I highly recommend to all.

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

    Normally this would be a good thing, but considering last winter and this winter thus far, maybe not…

    https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/821001198765342721

    • nunbub

      ¯_(?)_/¯

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      whats not get ahead of are self here

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

        Yeah, just a post. We are before the spring barrier, so this could change drastically.

        • Patrick from Stockton

          Not to show my ignorance here, but what does this actually mean, and El Nino in July? Rain in July??

          • Tuolumne

            No. A strong El Niño just means there is a greater chance (but no guarantee) of higher-than-normal rainfall in most of California during the normal rainy season. A weak El Niño doesn’t mean much one way or the other.

            Example: the 1997-98 El Niño reached very high values during the early fall of 1997, yet heavy rains didn’t start until the normal rainy season.

          • PRCountyNative

            “Based on recent evidence, a strong El Nino means* drought for southern California”

            * “means” is not the right word. “Increased probability”

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      I think last years El Niño was just too big…

      • RunningSprings6250

        So big it didn’t fit in the room.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          Which is why SoCal got “shafted”.

          • RunningSprings6250

            Moisture Blocked!

          • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

            That big dry February was brutal!

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Too much warmth in the Pacific overall last season, reducing the temperature gradient between North Pacific & Equatorial (Niño regions) perhaps? Looks like we have a better gradient this season, with that large area of cooler waters in the N Pacific.

        • West Pacific is still primed for another shot if atmosphere wants to get on the stage and perform. Did you read my babbling to you guys via twit message yesterday? LOL

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            I sure did, was really interesting.

        • Thunderstorm

          Record cold in Japan should help keep the north Pacific cold.

        • gray whale

          now that we’re far enough removed from soooo many specifics, this sounds right to me. what if it was really that simple?

        • TahoeMt

          totally agree. if we get another El Nino next winter thats east based we could be in for a great year if the North Pacific SSTA setup continues..

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      Too early to know what will happen this summer let alone this spring.

    • rainingintheLBC

      Not another hot summer 🙁

      • Freddy66

        Not to mention all that heat in the atmosphere that hasn’t gone away since last year. Global temperatures are going to be ridiculous if this happens.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      If it does come to fruition, look forward to increased monsoonal summer t’storms and maybe a tropical system or two.

    • e e

      El Nino or not, I just want my cold blob to remain at the same location, as somewhere to the northwest of California. A cold trans-Pacific tongue north of 45N would be fine too. 😉

  • RunningSprings6250

    To DelmarSD’s benefit the hydrologic outlook is now posted where you would see a weather warning or advisory – not just in the AFD.

    I think I have to go outside and have a smoke after reading this.

    “SEVERAL FEET OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES BY NEXT TUESDAY.”

    • BigBearHiking

      woohoo, bring it on. So far only one of my dogs is completely covered when running in the snow. I want the bigger one to have to work harder too. She has too much energy.

    • SBMWill

      Right on don’t think they have put it in the warnings and advisories this season so far am I wrong? They even mention 2010 cool.

      • RunningSprings6250

        No they haven’t yet so this is serious business lol – we’ll likely see a lot of caltrans trucks double checking all the roads and typical debris flow/slide areas making sure everything is tip top (too bad landslides happen no matter what lol) and i wouldn’t be surprised if i see the big snowblower ‘plow’ cutting walls out of all the berms, which are already 4′-6′ tall in my neighborhood as it is.

        • SBMWill

          You on a county or state road? Do you have a contract for your driveway?

          • RunningSprings6250

            Now you’re asking tough questions lol – i’m guessing it’s a county road because it’s just a side street of a side street of a side street in a neighborhood? And no, I don’t mind the shoveling, I just park the jeep at the end of driveway facing the street so i just need to shovel a pathway down and then the berm. There’s enough locals that go around plowing or shoveling people out that if it ever got to harry I could get a hold of someone.

            If I’m super tired and a plow is driving by I just wave a 20 or a 6 pack, or both….

    • Cap’n

      Boom goes the dynamite

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    From this Wednesday through next Monday I could see 3.48″ of rain!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5f7a99c57c44787af5b1c3a066c8d575d7e1e1bb473f0efc106b328bad384bf2.png

  • Charlie B
    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      Is that near Mono Lake?

      • nunbub

        Tahoe 🙂

        • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

          Oops 😉

      • Tuolumne

        Mono Lake doesn’t have extensive forests of tall trees down to the shoreline. One small area near Lee Vining has short scrubby piñon pines down close to the water, but it looks quite different than the above. You can always check the street view on Google Earth to find out – they have ground-level photos from pretty much every state highway in California as well as a lot of other roads.

      • Charlie B

        Mt. Rose highway above Incline. Additional pics of the summit and the inversion over Reno didn’t post.

    • Do you see that Chem trail?!?!

      • Tuolumne

        Of course you realize that all the rain we’ve been getting is chemrain and all the snow is chemsnow. The clouds are all chemclouds and the very air we breathe is chemair.

        • Don’t you just love secret govmint programs to kill us all? (do I need to put a smiley at the end of this?)

        • Pfirman

          Dihydrogen monoxide is starting to cause problems in some parts of the state and is slated to get worse soon.

          • Tuolumne

            We could even be looking at fatalities soon! Most terrifying is its ability to mix with soil to create a chemical sludge colloquially called “mud”. This dihydrogen monoxide sludge flows downhill with tremendous force, sometimes destroying buildings and burying people alive, leaving behind a chemical-soaked wasteland.

  • Most of this occuring in a 4 day period… Thursday-Sunday.
    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1431475333

    • Cap’n

      That’s what I call spreading the wealth.

    • DelMarSD

      Beautiful.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Orange up and down the coastline.

  • This freezing fog is fantastic http://imgur.com/t1VEIs6.jpg

    • StormHiker

      Beautiful shot!

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

    For the experts, how can one determine the strength of a cold front from a GFS MSLP map? Right now I look for more yellows and reds and darker greens, but I know there is more to it. I believe I have read closer isobar lines means more winds, but was not sure if that is only for the low pressure center.

    • Tight Isobars usually do mean gusty winds.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        & lower geopotential heights as well with a number of smaller characteristics generally leading up to the system about 72 hours out.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    Hi

  • I must say…the strongest system of the upcoming series (#3) really looks like a SoCal-focused event, and it could be a pretty big deal (especially coming on the heels of significant rainfall earlier in the week). Going to be an interesting week!

    • Nathan

      Cachuma might hit 10%!

      • celo

        With Santa Ynez River actually flowing during the last series of storms and soil conditions at or near saturation, I believe the next series of storms could be a watershed moment for Lake Cachuma.

        • Nathan

          Literally!

          • BRP (Ventura)

            What do you think, get her up to 20% by next Wed? Like I said last week, Casitas is stuck at 35% and hasn’t budged this winter!?!

          • RunningSprings6250

            50%+

            If it doesn’t happen then I will….well, nothing, but it’s the thought that counts!

        • Siernev

          Well played

      • Pfirman

        Harsh, but real.

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      I thought the 2nd storm is going to be the strongest?

      • celo

        The third storm follows the second storm immediately causing high amounts of runoff and flooding.

        • celo

          possible flooding

        • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

          2 inches here and its like the Kraken is released.

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)
      • SoCalWXwatcher

        He said “Focused”, meaning the strongest effects will be felt there.

        • Storm master (Sonora CA)

          the 1st part of the storm how ever is for N CAL be for moveing in too S in to S CAL

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            Right. Just like the storms last week were felt in ALL of California, but were focused more in NorCal & Central Cal. This time, SoCal might get the brunt of Storm #3. I think All of CA will get something worth talking about. Tons of snow in Sierras!

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        That 2nd frame – (156hr) should be good news for Lake Cachuma watershed.

    • redlands

      Bring it on

  • Nathan
    • DelMarSD

      Gorgeous.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
  • RunningSprings6250

    Hot Diggity Damn, you guys are not kidding! 18z ups the ante again.

    We did a preliminary stocking up / grocery run yesterday and will do the final one on Wednesday…

    …If I don’t then I’ll be in big trouble….

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      Did you buy stacks of bread and water packs?

      • RunningSprings6250

        I’ll follow suit and melt water on the fire – but I will buy grain to bake bread. Cast Iron Dutch Oven on the fire logs! 😀

        • Crank Tango

          I’d also look on youtube for good pruno recipes.

          • RunningSprings6250

            Now that looked like fun! Then I realized I misspelled ‘pruno’……

          • Crank Tango

            Well it might be a long weekend, I wouldn’t rule anything out yet.

          • Pfirman

            Yer so bad.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          Are you having your wife chop cords of firewood, like Cap’n does?

          • RunningSprings6250

            Man, I wish! I need to find out what he feeds her….

          • Cap’n

            Oats

          • redlands

            Lol

        • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

          Also get the top ramen ready too!

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Yep, better buckle down and let your neighbors know. Things are brewing out there as we speak.

  • Rio Rat

    Surf picked up today,first time in weeks with these lower latitude pineapple express systems rolling through. Good sign of things to come.

    • PRCountyNative

      SL Rivermouth must be a diseased fetid ripping crowded cesspool of aggression and waves

      • Rio Rat

        Last surfed the river mouth in mid 80s, my post wasn’t even about the river mouth, whats your point?

        • PRCountyNative

          Relax Rat!

          If the surf picks up, and the river flows, there is a wave at the rivermouth. Some think that is a good sign. However the water is polluted and the spot gets crowded. Your post was about surf picking up. Or were you saying something completely different??

          • Rio Rat

            Yea surf picking up because this series of storms are coming out of GOA, not the less dynamic lower latitude flow of the past few weeks. Good sign is GOA waking for more stormy weather, cause & effect.

  • CHeden

    As far as the GFS goes, the deterministic runs are certainly not much help.
    The 18Z run has taken the SoCal low (3rd) back out of the solution and replaced it with an open trough with the main dynamics remaining far north…similar to earlier solutions. ATTM, it looks like the 12Z run was an outlier…but then again, it could flip around again just as easy. Will be interesting to read Daniel’s take since he will have more credible data in support of his analysis than what I have to work with.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c934c7b98804c08220feee67ec330ec660d689a650bc0d289b4ef2389c5e113c.png

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Looks like SoCal gets hammered with that 3rd storm either way.

      • CHeden

        Agreed, SoCal should see some significant precip either way as you say. …but then again, the 12Z was a mind-bender and worthy of some extra attention.

  • mattzweck

    all I can say is bring on the rain. I wouldn’t mind at least 2.3 inches here in the high desert Lancaster. palmdale area’s. let it flood. See how many people get in accidents. Because they don’t know how to drive.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    If I get 3.65″ in the next 7 days, that could bring my water year total up to 13.12″! Very close to my annual average! 🙂

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      WU has now increased my rainforcast up to 3.8″!

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    Rob Mayeda just posted some interesting ECMWF Snowfall projections.

    https://twitter.com/RobMayeda/status/820534519295922177

    • SoCalWXwatcher
      • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

        Snowfall: I see a 73″ and a 86″
        Al’s house has a 45″ over it.

        • Skye H.

          Which means he’ll get 3 inches, then rain, and then an additional 2 inches before it warms to 45 degrees and all melts.

          • Cap’n

            South Lake got anywhere from 2-3 feet lake level during that sequence, but he’ll be reporting that he got 11″ mark my words.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          It’s also showing 8″ – 10″ over the Grapevine. When was the last time we saw that on the Tejon Pass? That would sure shut things down.

      • Am I seeing double? 😉

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          You were for 2 reasons – 1) I’m having a very off day, and 2) Disqus sucks very much.

      • jstrahl

        That’s two days ago, though.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          Yep. Posted it in conjunction with Rob’s more recent tweet about snowfall totals. Didn’t realize this particular post was from the 14th. (Shoulda looked at the time stamp) 😛

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      with heavy snow fall for the foot hills above 2,000ft

    • Cactus on a Boat

      Do feel that we are going to get more rainfall than what is being projected by the models, especially in SoCal. Most of the storms down here have been exceeding expectations.

    • Bartshe

      info based on old model run, not as impressive now

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Huh? That’s todays 12z ECMWF. There has not been another ECMWF model run today. Next one is at 00Z later tonight.

        • jstrahl

          On other words, using the latest Euro. And why should one GFS run result in the dumping of previous runs?

        • Bartshe

          thanks for update/clarification 🙂

      • StormHiker

        Bartshe – the Snow Water Equivalent map is up- I remember you asking about it

  • inclinejj

    Does this guy post here?

    https://instagram.com/p/BPTYOhVg068/

    • annette johnson

      Lmao! I like the first comment…”everything is a double black diamond when your 15 shots deep”…

  • alanstorm
    • CHeden

      Simply jaw dropping.
      How humbling Nature can be.
      Thanks for the effort to put this collage together!

      • alanstorm

        Intimidating as well. Still photos can’t capture the sheer velocity of that mass of water moving, unrelenting & determined. I didn’t feel safe anywhere near it

        • CHeden

          Know what you mean after seeing the lower Sacramento do it’s thing….but that was only ~ 120,000 cf/s. The Eel dwarfs that. Tough to imagine, even with pics, without actually being there.

    • Dan weather maniac

      Ya alanstorm you always represent the north/lost/best coast the best and show how truly spectacular it is ….

      Like CH says below nature is truly humbolting. Or something like that … nature mixes it up like that!

      Bring on the next wave series of pacific and GOA lows.

    • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

      Had to do a double take with the 2nd set. Awesome!

    • RunningSprings6250

      Nice! Another angle of the bridge (in the distance) – that was in September. I showed my daughter your pictures and she was amazed and wants to go back to see it full to the brim! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ce5fb458bc32391c01ed2041097072e2c7310260a9e25b5f721da84b25c52edf.jpg

    • StormHiker

      Stunning comparison!

  • Cap’n

    Just got done with some great spring-like turns for an afternoon sesh at SugarBowl. The crowd was gone an Cap’n had free reign of the bunny slopes. The old lady and I snow shoed behind our neighborhood today and found a complete tree graveyard. There must have been at least 20-30 trees that were downed. I walk this all the time in the summer, it will be looking much different. Also a couple shots of Donner Creek looking gorgeous.

    Glad I got out this weekend as times are a Changin’ at the homestead. Mother Nature walloped the pocketbook with that storm cycle. Too many missed workdays have forced me to seek extra treasures in a weekend job. No complaints though, I’ll still find time to play and lurk the blog. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0186ada45aa270acbb3204cd01a012ed00fbbf5face238ceb9ee0ff1f7340e83.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1e9387124dadea02245711f2a6e67e384b790871ae66487d93767aa2a500a0d9.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2a39848e38e02fc12cdad04ae47f9f7e1f76a5470606c26aa0daade664396b50.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/95df126f934bfe0d0bec93bec5833a82c36982144db808f7f8367c31a191c9ba.jpg

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      Spooky

    • CHeden

      “The old Lady”?
      Seems like someone who stacks wood and grovels through neck-high snowdrifts would deserve more credit than that !!!
      LoL.

      • Cap’n

        I’m starting to view my wife as this fictional character that has manifested here; a stout, no nonsense Norwegian who could drink me under the table, beat me at arm wrestling, and stack wood during a blizzard all while her soft handed husband types away on his bloggy blogs.

        • Pfirman

          Look, even with snowshoes, getting those pics was gnarly.

        • annette johnson

          Cap’n…I have not met her, but I do believe she is the real deal 😉

        • RunningSprings6250
          • Cap’n

            Now that’s my type of woMan!

        • Thunderstorm

          Sounds just like my grand mother who owned a bar in Bloomfield California. Just north of Petaluma. A milk farming countryside in the 1950’s and 60’s. She would roll dice with the farmers for drinks in the black leather cups. I’d roll with her too for a soda or free try at the pinball machine. She worked in a lumber mill as a teenager. Someone tried to rob her once. Very bad mistake for the offender. She was flooded out a few times in the middle 50’s.

        • Osse (Redondo)

          A Viking goddess. Freya.

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      I enjoy those days much more than the powder rush ridiculousness. I’ll get my mellow more enjoyable fresh tracks in the backcountry. Besides knowing proper carve technique on corduroy is becoming my go to as I age..

      • Yolo Hoe

        Here here on the corduroy — biology of aging is what it is.

    • PRCountyNative

      It’s a new day in California – maybe you could sell weed in the lift lines?

      Pre-rolled fatties and a couple strike anywhere matches?

  • molbiol

    As a follow-up to CHeden and SocalWx’s posts, the majority of the 18z GFS ensembles (pic) all have some sort of major impact to Socal from the 3rd storm. Its also worth noting that a couple of ensembles still have the intense compact low impacting Socal that the operational 12Z GFS depicted (but with timing differences). Time will tell; I do think that the ECMWF is a bit overzealous with the low snow levels depicted as 850mb temps don’t seem to match https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ea917daca168dad7350ef7c410ef1b7b0b36e0d7fea02a697c4a325e03aeb713.jpg

    • CHeden

      Thanks for the additional data and insights!
      As you said, time will tell.

    • As I said: a very interesting week to come for SoCal. More to come.

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      The dove says get Sandbags!

    • Crank Tango

      Did the bird think you have enough tread?

    • Pfirman

      Love that the vehicle is a Tahoe.

    • Bombillo1

      This is the avian equivalent of a dog and your tire.

  • RDLA

    Been following the board creeper style for a while, just registered to throw my hat in the ring. Living in South Bay area of Los Angeles. I’ll chime in when I can, though I just went to Lowe’s to buy a rain gauge and someone cleaned them out before I got there. Must’ve been a golf course greenskeeper or something.

    • annette johnson

      That or the WW folks 🙂

    • Osse (Redondo)

      It wasn’t me. I found one at Armstrong on Hawthorne. But I have to return it because half of it is missing… grrrrrr. Glad to see another LA South Bay Weather Westie join in.

  • Still subject to change… Also does anyone see any thunderstorms dynamics in these systems? With a healthy upper level jet and a lot of cold air I’d suspect so, but wanted someone else’s input.
    https://twitter.com/NWSSanDiego/status/821178611793358849

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Gotta think that powerful jet and some very cold air aloft have got to provide some decent chances for thunderstorms. I think NWS will be looking at that once these systems are closer in time, and in full view of the higher resolution models.

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      “Death nail in drought”?

      No.

    • Pfirman

      “….final death nail….” Pshaw.

      • Crank Tango

        Maybe they meant coffin knell.

  • Charlie B
    • Rusty Rails

      Reminds me of ’11 when I was driving around in my convertible while cars were found in the berms.

  • Cap’n

    Mt Shasta is quietly putting together a heck of a year, and last year wasn’t too shabby either.

  • alanstorm

    Another set of aerial photos from Lost Coast Outpost of Eel R flood last week. Incredible!!
    Other shots include Humboldt Bay flooded by King tides
    https://lostcoastoutpost.com/2017/jan/11/photos-countywide-aerial-views-flooded-humboldt/

    • Pfirman

      Well, time to head out to the barn to toss some hay…….oops.

    • mrq – Glenshire Truckee

      Hey dad!?! We still have those kayaks right?

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    Wow storm # 3 could bring major issue to all of CA tonight runs are even wetter and warmest we could looking at heavy rain and flooding issue for the hole state of CA if tonight GFS is right all so snow levels looks to up to 6 too 8000ft for this event after being in the foothills with the 1st two storms

    • Charlie B

      I hope the group of settlers approaching from the east will be safe.

      • Osse (Redondo)

        I hope they didn’t take the “faster” cutoff route. Bad advice if they did.

        • Charlie B

          We shall see I suppose. I unearthed a few more diary entries in the attic.

        • Ah, they’ll find something to eat. Don’t worry.

          • whisperingsage

            We’re living on our own home raise chickens and rabbits now. So it’s good. Then hens are even laying thanks to extra light in the henhouse

      • Cap’n

        Twig and boiled leather soup should keep their bellies full.

        • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

          Guide for hire

      • Osse (Redondo)

        Damn wimpy Easterners, always underestimating our mighty Sierra.

        • Tuolumne

          No, the problem was the con man who sold the Donner Party on the Hastings Cutoff. If it weren’t for that, they would have made it over the mountains in time and would have remained too insignificant for even a footnote in history.

      • Bombillo1

        As you most assuredly know, because of those unlucky immigrants the number of people migrating from the East took a dramatic nosedive when the story got out. Were it not for a yellow metal being discovered a couple of years later, California may not have even had enough people to become a state until 1880 or later, a la Arizona. A pleasant alternative reality that I contemplate from time to time.

        • Charlie B

          State of Jefferson?

          • Bombillo1

            Jefferson means different things, depending on when one talks about it. 20 years ago it was a conservative movement to establish a 51st state in order to cut political ties with the population centers (La, SF) that were dictating water policy, land use issues etc. Now Jefferson is a left wing movement to disassociate with the now right leaning Federal Gov. Jefferson is political zeitgeist.

          • whisperingsage

            I’m for jefferson and I’m still right wing. None of our goals have changed

  • Mr Montana

    daniel- when is your next article coming out in relation to the next series of storms?

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      Tomorrow

      • Charlie B

        A restless night.

    • Someone else

      He mentioned a possible update in the morning, perhaps a little later as the details become more clear/consistent in the models

  • Freddy66

    Goodbye exceptional and severe drought for most of California by next week ?

    • Tuolumne

      The four categories are moderate, severe, extreme, and exceptional. Did you mean the last two?

      • Dan the Weatherman

        I predict that by next week what remains of D4 will be completely eliminated and a substantial amount of D3 will also be eradicated as well. Since this is a long term drought, it will take longer to get rid of the less serious drought categories, but at least a portion of D2 could go by the wayside if the wet pattern continues into spring.

        • Tuolumne

          Sounds like a very reasonable prediction.

          We all need to keep in mind that the recent rains didn’t do it all by themselves up north – they had help beforehand in the northwest corner of the state in December 2014 (major drought reductions there) and over the northern half of the state in the 2015-16 winter (more extensive drought reductions). So it will take much more time and rain to get rid of all the drought in the south, if that indeed happens (fingers crossed that it will).

          • Pfirman

            But, weirdly, Trinity remained depressingly low.

    • alanstorm

      Goodbye for this year at least.
      It’s a time of extremes, so who knows what next year will bring.
      At least we’re not having one of those bazaar, abnormally warm & dry January’s.
      Quite the opposite!?

      • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

        We did alas break the dry & warm January curse that’s been plaguing our state for years now.. I did mention that back in November about how I hope we would finally break our dry January streak this season and put an end to the abnormally warm & dry conditions in the heart of winter (January-February, But more specifically January). Looks like those hopes and dreams came true for all of us WW brethren! And there’s still plenty of winter left! If next year goes into dead neautral or weak warm neutral next year, we could be in for another really wet year with a little better of a 50/50 chance I’d say especially if we truly have entered the new +PDO phase for the next 15 years or so! IMO this year is just the beginning and next year will be wetter than average too.. the year after next who knows what the weather will be like, but I’m banking on two solid rainy seasons in a row!! ^_^

        • Dan Vieira (West SFV)

          It looks right now that the end of January, after this series of storms, is pretty dry. That’s normal. I just hope that by February, the usual ‘dry spell’ we get in Cali in mid-winter breaks and we get back to a rainy winter. We shall see.

        • nunbub

          Yes, I agree. I have the same gut feeling about this coming season as I did for this season. Wet years all around! And, hopefully, more SoCal focused with a return to ENSO+

    • Sfedblog

      Reservoirs will fill long before underground water sources are fully replenished, which can take years. Shouldn’t call it over prematurely.

  • kipling

    The 00z brings the goods for LA in a big way. That is all.

    • I thought Dean Spanos brought the goods for LA?

      • Bombillo1

        What a carpetbagger he is. I was never more proud of my Los Angeles Bros and Sis when Dean and sons Uday and Qusay were booed out of the Laker/Clipper game yesterday when they thought they would make their grand coming out in Los Angeles. They had even planned a little speech and rally and abandoned it all when they saw that they were more likely to get the Mussolini welcome. Great stuff!

    • Cap’n

      Looks like party time for the whole state.

  • Juggernaut

    Thoughts on snow levels for the storms this week? Did they trend warmer on 00z?

  • Cap’n

    Ian you must be getting pumped. I was just reading on another blog the potential for some potentially “record breaking” snow in So Cal by Monday. Yeehaw! If we get another 1-3 feet here and 2-4 up top it’s going to be real tricky figuring out where to put it. Another fun week ahead for all.

  • Sfedblog

    Winter is looking promising after all, which is a reference to the Oct. WW post. The Arctic is still warmer, relatively, and the EPac s still cooler a la La Nina. The RRR did not form as envisioned. Does that mean the theory of its origins is wrong?

    • Bombillo1

      I have been waiting, really, for this moment that needs to be discussed. The poor prospects that were dictated by the parameters that Daniel and others so clearly laid out last September, have been remarkably errant. I commented at the time that I was hopping that they would all be wrong for 2 reasons. I wanted our beautiful State to be saved and I wanted poorly understood forces that affect our weather patterns to reveal themselves. Not getting the expected results from an experiment is elucidation screaming to be noticed.

      So now I would like to know from others here and especially Daniel, what has been learned from this remarkable turn of fortune. Have there been other indicators, precursor conditions that must now be given new weight when assessing our prospects? The old tool chest did not have everything we needed, have we added any enlightenment? Are we just left with the very unsatisfying rejoinder that the “forecast was just a probability assessment and we drew an inside straight by pure chance”.

      My knowledge of meteorology would not fill a thimble but here are a couple of things I just learned which would not be a revelation to the knowledgeable people here:

      1. I was very unimpressed with our AR event during the first week of January. The sub tropical fetch was very shallow by October’s standards where we then had moisture training in 1500 miles beyond Hawaii, almost twice our January event. What I saw 2 weeks ago was that the fetch is not THAT important for an AR but rather the surrounding dynamics that allow a fetch to “polymerize” relatively close to the coast. It was fascinating to watch it generate itself rather close in. I will now pay much more attention to the forcing dynamics of an AR event and not get caught up in how long the train is..

      2. This rain season was noticeably different right from the get go, from where I sit. We started getting many storms (here in very N Cal) of different nature. No ridge and at least 7 separate water events for us, in Oct! Tule fog returned, long absent. November was still, for us, a very much on par month (about 7.5 inches). December was bank and January off the hook. I have to ask, what did we not see? Have we learned anything?

      • StormHiker

        There will be the usual re-framing among the proponents of model infallibility, and where models are desperately wrong, you will be met with: “the problem isn’t the ‘models,’ but in your misunderstanding of them.”

        • Bombillo1

          With respect to all and as sincerely as I can put it, this kind of rationale that you describe is remarkably close to Ad Hoc Falacy argumentation. Science, in the end, can not allow this to prevail.

          Ad hoc – RationalWiki
          rationalwiki.org/wiki/Ad_hoc
          Aug 12, 2016 – Ad hoc is a fallacious debating tactic (also called a “just so story” or an “ad hoc rescue”) in which an explanation of why a particular thing may …
          ?Argumentation · ?Politics · ?Depression and anxiety · ?Fiction

        • Bombillo1

          I am not really bitter about the models being wrong but more concerned about what the model makers might have learned. I do, unfortunately, feel like your point might be how the whole question gets canned.

      • Arnold Weather Fanatic

        The subtle changes in our local climate are still evident–longer period at the front end of the rain year of rain-only storms, warmer temperatures (lake hasn’t frozen yet), and minimal snow events. Having said that, this week promises to be the typical “New Years Dump” but it is three weeks late. This seems to be in line with global warming prognostications. I have been trying to develop data on the “snow window”–days between the first and last snow, but you get random snows of 1″ that make this useless. Maybe if I look at “serious snow storm window”….

        • Charlie B

          I did a bit of research recently on rain to snow ratios at Blue Canyon which is at 5k along I-80. It is an area that can get huge snow dumps and all rain events the same week. What I simply did was divide yearly snowfall into total precipitation to see the ratio. The higher the ratio the colder the season’s storms. In the past 65 years, the 50’s had the highest ratio and the 60’s the lowest. The 2000’s were pretty high as well, as was the 90’s. we have not completed this decade, so who knows what it will end up looking like. So it it really changing much….?
          That said, 1951-52 saw 8′ of snow on the ground at Baxter along I-80 at 4K and that doesn’t happen now….

        • Bombillo1

          Daniel argues that the models function by the raw physics of our climate state thereby rendering “climate change” irrelevant, or, implicitly accounted for. It seems we should have learned something from this year’s surprise, but what?

        • cabeza tormenta

          ‘minimal snow events’? like last week’s 10’+ in th ehigh country?

          • Arnold Weather Fanatic

            At our level of 3800 feet. Seeing the great snow up the hill is fine with me :-). Ours has been declining, while rainfall is over average.

      • Charlie B

        It is too bad you started this discussion so late in the evening. My wife, who cares about real estate opportunities, interior designing and shoes, doesn’t believe any forecast more than two or three days out. She thinks that is intellectual folly for anyone to believe that computers say will happen a week, month, year or more from now. She does have a point.

        • Bombillo1

          I am not that cynical. I like the 240 hour batting average. Maybe even out to 288. I believe this thing is knowable and what is transpiring now is a learning opportunity.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            There is a reason weather.com started really focusing on 10 day forecasts more than 14 days over the years and there is also a reason wunderground has given the option as well to have 7 day NWS forecasts or if you like to play the cards a 10 days forecast from their own methods. It’s just logical to stay within a 7-10 day range and “only” consider the consistency within the 15 day if you can tolerate it.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        I think less weight should be given to seasonal models such as the CFSv2 when formulating seasonal forecasts. It has proven to be a very unreliable tool.

        Lets face it, seasonal prognostications are pretty much a roll of the dice given our current level of understanding of how all the subtle telleconnections will come into play several months in the future. I just don’t think seasonal models are anywhere comparable to medium range global models in terms of skill, and we are all painfully aware that global models have their own shortcomings as well.

        • Patrick from Stockton

          Totally agree. I brought this topic up a month ago as some of you may recall and I was “ripped to shreds” by someone called UPSLOPE for daring to even question that WW post. After all who was I??? As I recall, it was a blog update initially, then a follow up post about a week or so later where he threw that same graphic out there again showing the RRR right next to a warm CA. I could tell some folks on here were getting anoid and commented about the “glass half full approach” that WW seemed to be taking, ignoring the short term gains. In fact I think there was an Oct. storm in the works at the time as well. Then shortly thereafter Bill Patzer (I think) wrote an article including a statement that SoCal just might get the rain this year that they missed out on last year and WW immediately responded with “I am sorry I don’t see any indications that is going to happen etc. etc…..To answer the question about have we learned anything? I think the answer to that is not to post LR updates based on flawed data that don’t pan out and then have to wipe egg off the proverbial face just in case the reverse takes place…..kind of like what’s happening don’t you think…..I fully expect WW to remain silent on this topic. Of course, theoretically it could still happen in February….but I think unlikely at this point. His updates since then, however, on the realistic situation, have been very good as always, however.

          • Bombillo1

            I have been very uncomfortable with the tendency for conformation bias on these boards. Any rational fact and science based argument should be considered and critiqued on that basis. And certainly no personal assaults for those who argue using the above criterion. The chemtrail set deserve the tomatoes.

          • RunningSprings6250

            Can I still where my chem hat?

          • Bombillo1

            As long as you where it where it belongs.

          • Someone else

            FROM THE OFFICE OF THETHANKYOUCARP–

            CHEM-OLOGY — THE HAARP PROGRAM HAS BEEN ACTIVATED FOR THE COMING WEEK TO QUIET THE MASSES AND PREVENT RIOTS STEMMING FROM FALSE REPORTS OF DROUGHT. ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT STRATOSPHERIC MICROWAVE ENERGY WILL BE PRESENT WE CAN STILL EXPECT CERTAIN SOCIAL ELEMENTS TO INCITE UNREST. CHEM TRAILS WILL BE ADVERSLY AFFECTED THROUGHOUT THE SHORTTERM FORECAST DUE TO GROUNDING OF FLIGHTS AND THE EXPECTED CLEARING EFFECT OF “RAIN” ON THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. REGULAR SPRAYING WILL RESUME NEXT WEEK.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            I’m opposed to further use of chemtrail spraying, due to its adverse impacts on the Forest Gnome population. They are endangered and their numbers are few. When was the last time any of you have seen one? See what I mean?

          • matthew

            I have a picture of them partying with bigfoot.

          • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

            But thats all it is isn’t it, a forecast supplemented data? No one should have planned a construction project around it. It has long been rumored on here that the large pendulum could swing the other way, and this may be one of those times.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            I think you are referring to some of Howard Sheckter’s comments, not Bill Patzert, with regard to his suggestion that ridging over the Bering Sea and some other factors could allow for the jet stream to undercut the blocking and allow for storms to ride into CA, with the potential for above-average rainfall in SoCal.

            Howard isn’t a professional Meteorologist or Climatologist and I think he relies on instinct and past experience a lot when making his calls. To be fair, Daniel is a Scientist and relies fully on the scientific approach, and his skepticism was warranted based on what he was seeing.

            Again, I think some of the scientific tools such as the CFSv2 will need continued fine tuning to improve its skill before we can put much stock in any of its seasonal solitions. We’ll get there some day

          • Bob G (Gustine)

            Then again, maybe we will never get there, lol. No matter how much advances man makes in technology maybe the uncertainties in long range weather forecasting will make it impossible to ever accurately forecast.

          • Upslope

            Yes, and if only you had raised the topic in the same thoughtful, truly inquisitive manner others in this thread have, I wouldn’t have said anything. It”s not like Daniel went out on a limb and was making predictions that others in the field didn’t agree with. He was basing his projections off the models and the underlying tele-connection indices. You seem to be more focused on finding someone to blame and predicting how people will respond to being wrong, rather than trying to understand where error is being introduced in long-range forecasts.

            We should certainly feel free to question posts from WW like anyone else, but it doesn’t advance your cause when you do so in such an openly disrespectful manner as if you know better.

        • rainingintheLBC

          I think there is still a major problem at hand. It seems like the effects of the major PDO and ENSO teleconnections aren’t even understood anymore. Last winter should have been a banner year with a strong ENSO in the negative phase and a decent positive phase PDO. It was a bad season for us despite all the models forecasting a record breaking precip year. Now we have a weak negative phase ENSO with neutral PDO conditions and it’s a great winter? It’s hard to understand both climate and weather, but it seems like we understand things more poorly than we think.

      • IMO SST’s were not close to winter forecast. Pattern as well. Parts of the North Pacific really cooled off and have stayed cool. Nina fizzled. Forecasting seasonal precipitation is terrible right now. Not just CFS but other world models were looking to at least a below average precipitation.

        edit All the tools were in the box.

        • Bombillo1

          So you are arguing we willfully ignored the tools?

          • More possibly the algorithm and bias built into the algorithm

        • Sfedblog

          ENSO has a La Nina alert on 1-16-17 reverting to neutral in Feb. Thus, cooler Equatorial EPac and warmer Arctic in effect. But no RRR. Yet, most prognostications in fall from on high had a dry winter pattern. Perhaps if equatorial waters warm we might still have a dry pattern, but then Arctic will be experiencing further cooling.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          To be fair, although I disparage the CFSv2’s abilities regarding seasonal weather forecasts, I do think it handled the 2015/16 El Niño pretty well in terms of its strength and the timing of its peak. Its failure was with regard to its projected impacts for California, which were off target quite a bit last year.

          I do hope a lot is being learned as to what telleconnections were missed or misread, and that the model (or a new replacement) will be corrected to account for these.

          • Yes far as the EQ Pacific, it does pretty well with SSTA’s.

      • Robin White

        That nature always bats last.

      • matthew

        “what has been learned”

        That our seasonal forecast tools are not very good? Just a guess.

        • Bombillo1

          I am curious if Daniel would say such a thing.

          • matthew

            I have to admit that I do not pay much attention to them beyond what is posted here so that was just a flippant remark on my part. And I certainly do not confuse what is posted here with anything representing the scientific research on the subject.

          • Unbiased Observer

            Haha never. As we’ve learned he doesn’t admit when he or the models were wrong but instead spins what happened to fit the narrative. I enjoy this blog, but there it would be much appreciated if there was more introspection rather than just looking at the models…especially the long term ones. One thing we’ve all learned is how little we all know about long range forecasting…although analog years seem to be a useful tool.

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          Actually, one of Daniel’s early posts showed the possibility of above normal precip for NorCal for this first half of winter but a dry second half. No one predicted this so far

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        If we can recall the ’10-’11 seasonal models you would see actually they failed quite miserably as well that season too, if it makes you feel any better I generally rely on a mix of gut instinct and pinpointing model differences and usually leave the next page blank… I think I’ve actually looked at the CFSv2 about 3 times since October. It’s actually been a stellar year for those of us that paid attention to microclimates and changes in the air over the years this entire season has really been a memory analog more than anything for most of us. We are aware of the new climate regime and it’s increasingly drastic changes on weather for the entire West Coast, but we are also still able to see things computer models just can’t grip as well as from memory. IMHO.

    • John Curtis

      Hasn’t anyone learned anything yet? Repeated fog patterns along the coast over the summer was the additional “tool” not considered. This means the atmosphere is moving in normal pre winter cycle. These troughs prime local atmosphere for winter. When you have nothing but sun and near zero humidity all summer and into fall you basically have a dead atmosphere.

      • Bombillo1

        My original post that I made at about 1:00 AM, I mentioned the return of the coastal and tule fog, among other things. However the whole post was too long, rambling so it hit the cutting room floor.

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          We haven’t had much tule fog here at all this year,

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      Some of the comments from last year were interesting here. Some people here thought because last year’s Super El Nino did not bring monsoom storms to most of California and weather was pretty typical, they theorized that the jet would disappear up north again and we would have a repeat of 2014 and 2015. There were a lot of predictions of a dry winter, Goes to show that despite even good science out there, mother nature doesn’t follow science and does her own thing. Lets see how February and March turn out.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Check this out from the NWS on their Facebook page.

    Nice video from one of their forecasters.https://www.facebook.com/NWSBayArea/videos/1311539368921416/

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Sorry, no sound. Anyone getting the audio on this? It’s from the Monterey office (SF Bay Area)

    • Y. Pestis

      Awesome! Looks like the wife will get a chance to try out her snowshoes this winter without having to travel too far.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Hydrologic Outlook
    National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
    547 AM PST Tue Jan 17 2017

    …SERIES OF STORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY RESULTING IN MULTIPLE FLOODING CONCERNS…

    CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING FOR A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY…BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS.

    THE FIRST STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE RAINFALL TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA…WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.

    A SECOND STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY…WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. PRELIMINARY RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS STORM…WITH LOCAL TOTALS UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.

    THE THIRD AND STRONGEST STORM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN…BUT IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. WHILE IT IS STILL VERY EARLY…THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS STORM TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.50 AND 3.00 INCHES…WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 5.00 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.

    THE COMBINATION OF THESE THREE STORMS COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY…WITH MANY AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 3 AND INCHES OF RAIN. FAVORED COASTAL FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS COULD HAVE TOTALS AS HIGH AS 6 TO 9 INCHES. SEVERAL FEET OF NEW SNOW ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES AND SKI RESORTS BY NEXT MONDAY.

    THE EXPECTED HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND INTENSITIES COULD BRING NUMEROUS HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS. MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT FLOWS LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SWIFT WATER RESCUE ISSUES DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND RESULTING INCREASED FLOW RATES. THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND AROUND THE RECENT BURN AREAS…ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRIDAY AND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY STORMS. ALSO…WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LASTLY…ROCK AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT DURING THIS PERIOD…ESPECIALLY NEAR CANYON ROADWAYS.

    WATCH FOR UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS AT
    WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

    $$

    GOMBERG/BRUNO/KAPLAN

    • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

      I thought they were stopping those all capatlizes summaries?

      • RunningSprings6250

        I believe that’s just in the AFDs – file a complaint.

        • Someone else

          FILE A COMPLAINT

          FIXED THAT FOR YOU

          • Crank Tango

            Thank you!

      • rainingintheLBC

        I oddly like it. Caps is cruise control for cool.

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      Looking forward to your play by play of this developing storm cycle for the 805…good times ahead!

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Soon, unfortunately there are still some minor differences in details beyond friday, but things are getting more consistent. I just don’t want to speak too soon on this one, but after a quick review of things this AM, maybe this evening after a hike in the back country I will be a bit more comfortable in the hot seat give to some better input. Been up all night watching this thing edge closer and closer to the west coast. I will add that this is definitely looking like a gully washer parade so cameras should be at the ready.

    • rainingintheLBC

      These series of storms sound like a great one for us down south!

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
  • Storm master (Sonora CA)
  • Cap’n

    Al you got a special shout out on Opensnow this morning. BA seems to be very optimistic on the Sunday system dropping some hefty totals. The two before that are mere dustings with a foot or so for each of them. Looks like heavy shadowing potential with the first one though. What a January! The “potential” is there for me to receive anywhere from 2-4 feet in my neighborhood by Monday. If the high end happens it will be interesting seeing where we put it.

    • AlTahoe

      Just by looking at the orientation of the storms the last few days on the GFS runs I am expecting 0-6″ by Sunday morning. The Sunday – Monday storm has been the only one I have been eye balling as it comes through in a more typical orientation for heavy snow east of the crest. The Sunday storm looks like the 2010-2011 storms where South lake can end up the big winner compared to other area’s.
      I checked my snow log and so far this year we are at 56″. Last year I had 52″ at this date. The Sunday storm should put me way ahead of last year’s pace.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Rooting for ya Al as the snowpack needs every damn inch.

  • Chris Lyon

    Wind Advisory up for the Bay Area

  • weathergeek100

    Last time I saw hydro alerts in SoCal was right before the 2010/11 AR. This is crazy! Will Daniel write a new post?

  • CHeden

    Chilly and cloudy this a.m. up in Cottonwood. Temps are 39F..about 10F warmer than it has been at this same time for the last 4 days. The high cloudiness is associated with a departing meridional ridge that is now pushing through Cent Calif. and will continue to migrate east through the day. (See pic).
    Upstream, the first push from storm #1 is starting to bring some light precip to far NW Cal, and the precip field will slowly sag south, with us seeing our first precip later this evening before heavier rain and wind moves in tomorrow with a CF sweeping down over all of California.
    Will hold off with further details until the new GFS is in and hopefully Daniel can provide some further insight in his upcoming post.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d579b749d051a2f19cf527e3e097f2605eec4670b21f29d8be9d573f6784468a.jpg

  • CHeden

    A special note from an ex- Neighborhood Disaster Coordinator:
    It looks like a potential life/property/safety event may be in the offing for parts of SoCal…and for this reason after today I will be largely deferring predictions of the incoming events to those who are more connected with the local authorities…and I will instead be focusing on personal observations or unfolding short-period events.
    Given there is a significant readership here on WW, it is important to always consider that conflicting forecasts/opinions during possibly severe conditions can be counterproductive in getting important safety-related forecasts out to the public.
    For this reason, I urge all WW commentators to carefully consider the content of their posts for the next week or so, and refrain from spurious postings or unfounded speculations which in turn will leave more space for important local reports and pictures of any developing/occurring emergency situations.
    Thanks in advance for considering my request!

    • WalkmanJG

      With all due respect, and I don’t know a way of saying this that isn’t going to come out wrong, this isn’t an official emergency management blog. While I sympathize with what you’re getting at and I appreciate very much all of the additional in depth analysis you provide this community, I don’t think you’re in a position to request such an evolution of this space.

      All of that being said, this isn’t my blog either, it’s Daniel’s and perhaps I’ll be told to shut up and my post will disappear, I can understand that. I just don’t think it’s productive to request only certain types of posts for a certain period of time…

      • CHeden

        I can appreciate that point of view.
        Please note my intent was simply to put out my own personal perspective, and if others agree, then they can do the same.
        Also, I’m relying as much on our recent experience on WW where there were so many posts that important safety-related alerts/warnings probably got unread in the shuffle..if you know what I mean.
        IMHO, there are times when some restraint is prudent, and the rest of the time it’s business as usual….and I’m simply saying that if the situation dictates it, then I will be doing my part to make sure everyone stays safe by focusing on observation and critical information dissemination.

        • RunningSprings6250

          Please – don’t restrain yourself.

          Everyone gets alerts on their phone ? these days, tv, radio, yahoo, the grocery clerk, their barber, their Brazilian wax expert and oh yea, NOAA too…

          • Crank Tango

            NOAA told me to build an ark, so I made one out of unused kayaks lashed together with paracord. It’s been hard keeping the cats from fighting.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            I regret that I destroyed the kayak that Bill Patzert told me to get last season. I destroyed it last February during a very warm sunny day. Now I think I should have kept it cause I might need it.

          • matthew

            I still have my DIY ark kit from last year’s hysteria if you are interested.

          • alanstorm

            NOAH said I should build an ARK, & to make sure it’s big enough to fit all the dinosaurs.
            No wait….. wouldn’t I just need dinosaur eggs??

          • Tuolumne

            Don’t forget the bear eggs. That Running Springs guy photographed some a few weeks ago.

    • matthew

      I have been watching the GFS runs and I honestly do not see what the big deal is. SoCal will be getting a few inches of rain in the next week…good for them! Will there be localized problems? I am sure there will. Will those problems be amplified by the media to look like Stormageddon? You betcha. Should everyone out there treat this blog as merely a source of entertainment and pay attention to their local emergency agencies and NWS reports? Absolutely.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        If you saw the latest Euro runs since yesterday you’d probably realize more so why these things are being noted as a bit more eye-brow raising.

        • matthew

          I guess my point was that anyone relying on WW for health and safety information needs to have their head examined.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            I agree wholeheartedly. That’s why we direct people to the NWS and other local agencies about upcoming impacts regardless of our own personal thinking, simply what CHeden is implying, well I assume that’s what he means. I for one care just as much as they do about the safety of citizens in the state even when weather is the most interesting thing going on in my head.

          • CHeden

            Thanks, and well put.
            I guess it’s my “afraid I’ll miss something important” personality disorder kicking in.

          • CHeden

            @Mathew,
            That’s not what I had in mind.
            Just saying that when/if things start to get crazy, we have to temporarily exert a certain restraint on what is pertinent and what is not. That way, when important information is posted, it gets a greater readership.
            Don’t forget, last week’s event briefly crashed WW, and for me, it was at times impossible to keep up with the sheer volume of posts.
            Would hate to see that happen again, but that’s me, and not my call…it’s Daniel’s all the way.

          • Pfirman

            Just occurred to me Daniel could do one his ‘sticky’ things up at the top, for both warning purposes and to call attention to the tweets at the side, which would be current.

          • CHeden

            Good idea.
            As long we remember to refresh the page all the time.
            Still not seeing any consistent updating after last week’s crash.

          • matthew

            I hear you. Personally, I have put the drama queens on ignore. It cleans up the board quite a bit.

      • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

        A few inches of rain and feet of snow in such a short time is going to be a fairly big deal; This isn’t NorCal…

      • Dan the Weatherman

        A few inches of rain can lead to mudslides and flooding problems, especially now that the soil has been saturated from recent rains.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Great reminder! I’m sure many SoCal newbies will be coming on the board this time around compared to the last few storm cycles… This could be a real awakening for folks who just moved here in the last 6 years looking for nothing but sun. My eyes are on the any burn scars in the southland that have occurred over the last 4 years and the PCH along Ventura & LA counties, it’s looking like a classic mud/rockslide scenario in the prone places down here. Good news is the greenery is going to love this as it’s been holding up real nicely since that last rainfall.

  • thebigweasel

    While SoCal is expected to take the brunt of this storm, that doesn’t mean people in the NorthState don’t need to be wary. Siskiyou County is now under a winter storm warning and there is a hydrologic advisory posted. Flood-prone areas in the north state need to be particularly watchful. The ground is still saturated, and it won’t take much to cause the streams and rivers to rise. Most of the major reservoirs are nearly full, and so may not be able to contain major runoff so as to prevent downstream flooding.

    • Pfirman

      I take the following, with a couple exceptions, to mean we are in good shape with the reservoirs ability to receive. Interesting Trinity is not here.
      http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/floodcontrol.pdf

      • thebigweasel

        All the big northern ones are at or above TOC, which, while not alarming, means they will be opening spillways in short order once runoff begins in earnest.

  • Fairweathercactus

    The 3rd storm looks a little different. It does not look quite as good for So Cal.

    • RandomTreeInSB

      Yes. Let’s stop worrying about the details at this moment and just acknowledge that something’s coming.
      Not sure if you’re trolling, or just overly pessimistic sometimes. -_-

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Fairweathercactus pessimistic???
        Bite your tongue sir!!!

        😉

        • RandomTreeInSB

          Either that or purposefully seeking attention 🙂

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            NO! :-O
            Couldn’t be. 🙂

          • Crank Tango

            IOW, you got it right the first time.

    • Freddy66

      Oxnard still saying it could be the most powerful of the 3..If it digs a little further south.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        The last storm dug more than expected also, and it stuck around and dumped more than anyone thought. When they dig, it tends to slow them down. The last one didn’t leave some areas until Saturday evening – and that is only because there was no beer left in the fridge.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          NWS Ox/LA is keying at that possibility for the monday system with the monday system

          “Some showers may linger Sat and Sat night, but the bulk of the rain should be over by late Sat morning. The third storm will affect the region Sunday into Monday, and has the potential to produce the most rain and wind. The 00z runs of the GFS and ec were in good agreement in showing a deepening trough approaching the area Sunday, with a moist and strong southwesterly jet aimed into the region, and strong to very strong sly low-level flow developing during the day and continuing at night. Both models were similar in showing rain spreading from NW to se across the forecast area Sun afternoon, with rain, heavy at tines and gusty winds Sun night and early Mon. The 06z GFS shows the system digging more sharply with the jet becoming more parallel to the surface front, slowing it down significantly. This would keep much of Sunday evening dry, with rain overspreading the area Sun night and early Monday. The heaviest rain in this scenario would be late Sunday night across slo and sba counties, and during the day Monday across vtu and l.A. Counties. At this point, have decided not to buy off on the 06z run just yet, but it will certainly have to be considered if later runs start to trend that way.”

    • Since when?

    • alanstorm

      If u turn the screen upside down, it DOES look different!

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Snowpack update from NWS Sacramento, interesting that the Southern Sierra is by far the leader and if the models are correct will continue to be the leader in the clubhouse.

    https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/821411046464376837

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    *Do not rely on this, it could change by the next run drastically, just possible*

    This is for curious SoCal peeps without access to Euro.

    Euro has been trending wetter with consistency for SoCal the last 3 runs including the latest 00Z for the 10 day precipitation totals. 3-4+” inches nearly everywhere in the SoCal metros, coastal communities as well including the south coast showing around 4-5+” widespread in Santa Barbara counties south of the Santa Ynez Range. Ventura County mountains (which need water badly as well) could see 7+” in the back country which will surely get the streams and creeks going better in some places than they have since the drought started… In the San Gabriel mountains the newest run is showing possibly 6-8+” of precipitation in the Mt. San Antonio, Mt. Baldy watershed affecting the Blue Cut burn scar area including Wrightwood and Lytle Creek possibly the Cajon Pass. Now I will also add for the sake of Ian and the folks in the San Bernardino county mountains; localized amounts of 6.5-10.5+” are also possible if things come to fruition which I may say there is high confidence in this. Orange County is looking at widespread totals ranging from 4-6.5+” with neighboring Riverside & SD county valleys and metros seeing 2-5+” along with their local mountains seeing a good range between 4.5″-9″.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Thanks for posting that. It’s food for thought given the fact the EC has been the more consistent & reliable model once it latches onto its solution during medium & close range. The GFS has also been pretty good this year, but EC has been more consistent.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Agreed, and just trying my best to keep it in motion for you guys on here, I think this board deserves to be in the know on the model much more when somebody who knows how to look at it has access and can share, so I’m being the middle man lol.

    • Wow!!

    • weathergeek100

      Incredible if this comes to fruiton. The third storm, however, is still a week away. Plenty can change. It certainly is interesting that both NWS Oxnard and SD seem so confident on it. They have “rain likely, heavy at times” wording a week out. Never seen that before.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Notice I added the”+” to those totals because it might possibly be more**, but I will also add that doesn’t mean there is a slimmer chance of it being less. Like I said it can change which I’m glad you’re aware of.

        • RunningSprings6250

          NWS SD already saying 12″+ rain possible below snow level here on the lower coastal slopes.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            It’s not, I think they’re being still pretty quiet on bigger snow totals at the moment because that can sound the alarm to anybody who wants to treat this as a good thing for resorts and make early travel plans… Because ya know it’s SoCal. I really think they don’t want people to hear just yet it might be the best SoCal ski season in quite some time until things are more pinned down.

          • RunningSprings6250

            Yea I was figuring that as well, seems like the very low minimum would be 3 feet total, 6-7 feet max, but it’s how it is all the time – for example this past storm last week I totaled 15″ snow and areas just below the snow line received 4.5″-5.5″ rain.

            I thought cold (plus elevation) was suppose to squeeze out more moisture?

            This is all in the same ‘coastal slopes’ region, only difference is elevation. What is it about that special place just below snow line to be able to wring out max precip?

          • Tom

            I’ve heard max precip is right around the snow line on an upslope.

          • RunningSprings6250

            At least my personal observations are correct. LOL! How rare!

          • Tom

            Somewhat related, and this is really old fuzzy knowledge for me. The Sierra max wet band on the upslope is somewhere around 6-7K ft. Drier above even with the same orographic slope. The Rockies which have a much larger percentage of summer precip out of higher clouds do not seem to have this hump in the precip..as far as I know it continues to increase with elevation. Of course also matters that the “base” of the Rockies could be land of 5,000 ft.

          • Siernev

            Yep. According to “Sierra Nevada Natural History” (Storer, et al), max precip occurs at about 5-6k feet in the central part of the range.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            I was just about to type that, I’ve heard that as well. Hopefully the low level flow might actually aid in bringing a classic dumping, but I actually have a feeling that might be the contradiction and the low level flow could be bring the most precipitation to levels just slightly below the freezing level.

    • CHeden

      yow. Thanks for passing this on….in addition to a great summary.

      Based on what your saying about the EC, seems like the NWS is trending towards the same thinking? Still can’t get a good read on the GFS for the third storm (significantly drier ATTM), so not surprising.
      The CPC seems to be favoring the Euro, too.

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/69d21830e6b8c301ea495a0498dd420447f4d64b949aa44a566fda770e430a68.gif

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        It does seem so, I will say the 12Z Euro is showing actually about .50″-1″ less than the 00Z in most locations with an even higher shift in precipitation in my county, but from old rule of thumb seeing the Euro do that is actually a slightly good sign this could be more widespread with higher totals in valleys and coastal areas.

        • CHeden

          Great info (and experience). Thanks!

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            It will be interesting to see which systems overperform or underperform or hit the MOS right on the head.

    • scott

      thanks since i don’t have the euro. appreciated!

  • alanstorm

    ANOTHER 7″+ FOR MENDOCINO CO???
    Geez. We’re soaked-up here already!
    (me 3 weeks ago: “**** dry forecasts!!”)
    Probably see some high WARNING STAGES, but doubtful we’ll be in the flood-zone. These storms are too short in duration IMO. (of course, things could change if Sunday’s storm proves worthy)
    SoCal is another matter: when was the last time you saw 3″+ for L.A. Basin?
    Could be some flash flooding 4 sure!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/038bf0c11351a1b98ebf058da03505d8dcde472f0db682d26729ad60d4805855.png
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2d2c430b149a012772375763e085e07367455b7b1355e128d22a89dec2eab6e8.png

    • matthew

      The good news is that it looks like we are all in for a good dry out after next Tuesday. Well, “good news” as long as it doesn’t last for 10 months…

      • alanstorm

        That’s always the deal now.
        Me last Feb & previous Januarys, staring at the ridged-out GFS: “maybe this is IT for the rain?? We’re DOOMED!!”

    • gray whale

      Oh, we remember 😉

    • Nathan

      I ain’t going anywhere near the ocean for a while, that’s for sure…

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    The San Joaquin River is currently flowing past our area at 10,000 CFS and has gone over its first banks. Will be interesting to see what happens but next Monday

    • alanstorm

      Is this by Newman? (NEWMAN!!!)
      Maybe release from reservoirs in anticipation of big precip

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        Patterson. Yes, being fed by the Merced river. I am not an expert in river flows but I wonder if all the flows going into the rivers downstream also affect the river flows.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay
    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      A bit of an update CalTrans announced that Highway 89 will be closed around Emerald Bay throughout this week at least.

    • April hope brings May nope

      I like the snow alligator on top of the sign.

  • Robin White

    If the 3+ inches of wet from the next three storms verifies, we’ll be right at our annual rainy season average.
    In January.
    Robin

  • weathergeek100

    Well, that’s basically the shortest AFD ever from SD. Would think they’d say more based on the active weather coming up: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDSGX&wfo=SGX

    • RunningSprings6250

      Busy with the hydrologic outlook and prepping storm warnings of course and so much else that goes along with it…patience..

      • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

        “Party time” – NWS SD would have been good enough for me 😉

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        This was my favorite part of their latest AFD since we were just discussing this.

        “Although quite a ways out in the future, the last storm around
        Monday is more neutral in its tilt, but still has a lot of flow
        around it as it pushes through for good upslope flow generation
        and substantial rain and snow over the region.”

      • weathergeek100

        Winter storm warnings on the way for you! Likely back to back. Quite exciting I must say!

  • lodule16

    New reservoir update from CDEC (just happened to be clicking thru) — many above historical avg., recovery underway down south.

    http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/rescond.pdf

    Question for the pros – when we see that Trinity Lake is 26% below historical avg., I assume this has to do in part with preventative release given the amount of precipitation to date. What other factors (i.e. contracts) might account for this?

    • cthenn

      Why is New Melones always so low?

      • Tuolumne

        Because it’s so huge in relation to its watershed. It takes a huge amount of above-normal precip to fill it up.

      • Tom

        Because it is an unusually large reservoir with relatively small watershed. Only the wettest years will bring it up to full.

      • matthew

        I remember reading (don’t ask me where) that in hindsight New Melones was somewhat of a mistake. The watershed above it does not support a reservoir of that size on a regular basis.

        • Upslope

          Both Matthew and Tuolumne are correct. New Melones is too big relative to the watershed it serves, just as Friant is too small relative to the Merced watershed. Trinity is more towards the Friant end – it’s watershed is relatively small so you don’t see the big pulses like we just saw at oroville from the Feather R. Rather, since it rains so often in that neck of the woods (rainy season there is longer vs. most of the Sierras) I think it takes longer to recover from long-term drought. If this season keeps up, Trinity should be just fine come April/May.

          • Nathan

            I thought Friant was on the San Joaquin?

          • Tuolumne

            That’s right, and that’s a much bigger watershed than the Merced.

          • Upslope

            You were correct. I confused Exchequer with Friant.

        • Tuolumne

          At least it’ll most likely do a great job of flood control in an ARkStorm kind of event.

          [I had to look that one up to get the crazy capitalization right]

    • CHeden

      Not really any releases to blame.
      Trinity Lake’s watershed has been orographically shielded from a lot of the AR-type precip.

      • lodule16

        I thought that might be possible, but dismissed it because of our wet winter to date. California’s microclimates are confounding!

    • norcal

      As CHeden mentioned some of it maybe locked up as snow and that watershed may not have been in optimal alignment to receive the bulk of the precip. Also the balancing act that the water managers play( DWR,Army Corp, water districts) is fragile. This is especially true for the west slope rivers. Each reservoir is only allowed to fill to a certain point before April to maintain flood space. After April they can fill all the way. Lake Oroville for example is allowed to fill to about 848 ft. They are currently hovering around that mark. Once they reach that, they must maintain it, so Oroville is releasing about 20K. Oroville is allowed to relase a max flow of 160K into the Feather River. That is so the combined flow downstream of the Yuba,Bear and eventually the Sacramento does not exceed the ability of the levee system to prevent an flood in Yuba City, Sacramento and West Sacramento. This is when and where things get dicey. During the height of the last AR- the peak inflows into Oroville hit 170K. We now have a full reservoir( Shasta and Folsom as well) and the required flood space is available, but if we experience another strong AR with rain on snow- they will begin ramping up flows to make more capacity. In 1997 there was some concern for awhile that the inflows into the lake would exceed the ability to dump water fast enough( they were releasing close to 160K) and that an uncontrolled release would go over the emergency spillway( which is the parking lot).
      That would have been an unregulated flow. The thought is that the levee system could hold 200K before it overtopped- but that is open for debate. They did just reinforce the levee with an deep slurry wall of bentonite to prevent seepage.
      The Trinity doe shave some flood protection for Lewiston and and some of the other small towns along 99, so not sure if some of that is in play there as well.??

      • lodule16

        Great insights… each dam has its own algorithms, based not just on forecasts but also on their own integrities. The state of the levee system downstream also factors, as well as political stakeholder turf and agreement, and what constituencies of engineers think is optimal. And we haven’t even gotten to deliveries. The whole apparatus is mind-boggling, harnassed for man and agriculture and now being restored to recover a semblance of ecological balance.

    • Nathan

      Trinity was way, way, behind this year to begin with. Last year a lot of releases mean the level never really got up to where, say, Shasta did. But I think the precip was there.

  • Update: will probably have a new post ready by early PM. GFS backed off a bit on magnitude of Sunday storm in SoCal, though ECMWF still pretty robust. The intensity of storm #3 will likely determine whether or not there are major flood issues in SoCal, so it’s an important detail!

    • RandomTreeInSB

      Btw, GFS took away tomorrow’s storm for SoCal just a couple days ago. But now it’s back on track.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
  • Jeff

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/884511b7a162fa8b9c5158ce635f5ae9f2fddb4b2038c2f589bd4be4a0fe0e15.jpg WU ramping up rainfall estimate for Th-Fri in San Diego, have not seen numbers like that since last january

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      & those could be minimums possibly.

      • Jeff

        yeah, the estimates usually seem to end up lower than actual, could be scary for the beach areas if we get much more than that

        looks like a trip to big bear may be necessary

  • matthew

    Off-the-wall question. There has always been background talk about finding analog years to try to guess what is going to happen in a given season. Has anyone tried applying pattern-matching/machine learning algorithms to the data? Seems like once you have the dataset together it would be pretty easy to pick out the matches. I have some experience with machine learning software and was thinking this might make a fun project on the next snowy day. But I don’t want to waste time if it is already available somewhere.

    And yes, I realize the inherent flaws of this approach so we don’t need to go down that path.

    • CHeden

      Perhaps you are referring to what CPC routinely publishes as “analog years” for a given forecast period. Typically, up to ten years are identified as close “analogs”. Not sure, but I believe their algorithm for determining an analog is mostly performing data correlations with confidence factors appropriately derived (as I think you’re suggesting?). https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4a2ff0f344d42b9183f70ff7f78de0552ceb43271ecf97e20f1edf192e960f11.gif

      • matthew

        I will take a look at that. What I was thinking was using something like a Support Vector Machine (SVM) that you could “train” with a whole lot of historical weather data and known outcomes. For example, feed it 100 years worth of data on sea surface temps, deer migration patterns, and beer consumption in northern bavaria and what each of those years resulted in as far as precipitation in California. It would analyze the data, throw out the stuff that was not relevant and create a model that could make predictions along with probabilities based on new data. SVM’s are very efficient at sorting through masses of data and finding the things that really matter to the outcome that you are trying to predict.

  • itsGonnaRain

    That last 2 or 3 rain events this season have over performed in socal compared to GFS and NWS estimates. completely opposite from last year. I wonder of these will follow suite and over perform.

  • BRP (Ventura)

    Uh oh, here comes our dry spell, and damnit, in the statistically highest precip average month for Ventura County! I will consider this weekend’s rain as the last one of the season…LOL
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e6e0d000afd7994613b3c00ffa51c1ce7e099288d59a8ed256c787c2825b2f96.png

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Just for a quick share from home, 1st shot is looking directly east, 2nd shot with rooftops is looking southwest, behind that is the wide open Oxnard Plain. The eastern facing image is looking toward the Santa Monica Mountains which my community sits near the edge of & also over a couple ridges is Newbury Park. I live within the Springs Fire burn scar (May 2013). *Click & zoom for higher resolution & closer look at things* https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dd9bcfcfd7a023caf7f93802d36a4fa8613b2c2d43dea600d8556c20e12f5875.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0bf2fa6d17b8d9a774af0c22e06bf901c3c1df710f3aa21253b343646a13c303.jpg

    • scott

      Its nice and green up there.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        For once!

  • Cap’n
    • Crouching Dallas

      Just a wee bit breezy!

  • scott

    I need your advice everyone. NWS Hanford is showing bipolarness for the Kern County Mtns.

    On Friday they state “This storm will be colder with snow levels down to around 3000 feet.”. Yet when I click on my spot forecast for 4000ft it showing rain then snow showers Friday night.

    On Sunday’s system they state “another storm is set to arrive on Sunday and looks to continue through Monday. This storm is also likely to bring some snow down into the foothills”. Yet my spot forecast for 4000ft says rain likely Sunday and a rain and snow mix Sunday night.

    It sounds like they are struggling with snow levels through this storm from what I see. What gives?

    Also, tomorrow I am skiing either downhill at China Peak by Fresno or cross country ski at Mammoth as all runs are open at both places. Pictures will follow as the ppt is suppose to hit after 4pm.

    • RunningSprings6250

      You can’t trust the automated point forecast so much – go with the elevations in the discussions / warnings.

      Also, check the elevation in this location as shown in the photo to make sure the actual elevation for the point forecast is closest to yours. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1d62e57780d7257a917f591f75c278380681f82f06880ba1b0dd514afada8dc1.png

      • scott

        Good point. I bet the snow levels are actually pretty fluid between 3K and 4K, which means its nearly impossible to pin point exact elevation snow will fall. It will probably be more sleet in nature from what I gather below 4K. I figure the lower elevations given are after the main front passes through and we have just shower activity left under the cold air. From my observations, usually always the front brings rain for the majority of the storm then after the passing, the colder air can snow. New Years Day 8in at 3500ft was a rare exception to that rule. Above 4K at your area, things work different though and we know it should be all snow for the most part. I called Rimnordic by you house and they said they still have 6-12in left on the ground so I am glad to see its not all melted yet.

        • RunningSprings6250

          That’s directly across the street from snow valley right? They do mountain bike events in the summer?

          They really go on the low low end for snow coverage!

          • scott

            I thought the same thing about going low. Your pictures showed a ton of snow this weekend and its hard to imagine most all of it melted already. The lady says out of the 18 miles of track, only 6 miles are open now and water is running down the expert runs on top, but the base is good. For now, I’ll hit ski areas to the north for tomorrow and wait until next week to make it really nice. Tamarack in Mammoth is finally 100% open for cross country tracks.

            I have been dying to get up there for 3 years now but it was usually closed during the drought. If it pops off, I can’t wait to hit that in the morning and ski snow valley in the afternoon. Heck, Mt High at Wrightwood briefly had all 3 resorts open this weekend. Dude, we are SOOOOO close to making the southland come alive!!!! If it happens, I will make the south my regular spot. Maybe even Baldy and Waterman can open too (granted Waterman is pretty small and their chair lift looks like a redneck rigged it with duct tape).

        • Crank Tango

          We’ve had that same issue lately up in the north here at 3200 feet. the last snowfall, levels were supposed to be a lot higher, but apparently didn’t account for all the cold air trapped here in our mountain basin.

          • whisperingsage

            I think in our area, those are called ” microclimates”.

  • Cap’n

    Look at those pretty colors! There’s practically a bullseye for everyone. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bd492d1afa5597af01cb21130d902103808e5b8733364b7cd678a7243bee988e.png

    • TahoeCard

      My upper deck shoveling problem may solve itself when I can just run the blower onto it from front yard 😉

    • mosedart (SF)

      That’s really nice for the sequoia groves in the southern sierra. We’re going to be out of the drought completely if things keep up. And to think this was supposed to be a dry year…

      • Patrick from Stockton

        Oh don’t go there again …..please…. 🙂

    • Everyone will get nuked!

    • RunningSprings6250

      Damn that’s a 9.6 now it keeps going up! LOL

      • Cap’n

        I thought of you when I posted it. Start your lower back stretching regiment now while you have time. It looks like nearly all mountains in California have a legitimate shot of several feet of snow.

        Damn this feels good.

        • RunningSprings6250

          I’m wondering if I can bribe the wife for some deep tissue back massage….Oats you say? I’ll give it a try.

          This is that type of storm series where it looks like mountain locations could have little to no break between systems. And while the potential for 5-6 days of non stop snow is exciting I can already see NWS and the associated ‘powers at be’ are sitting back right now thinking… ‘oh shit’…..do we cause a panic now and it doesn’t happen? Lets just wait one more model run…..LOL they’re sweating’ it!

          • scott

            When it happens I am going to kick out some Mary Jane, some good imported beer, and read the CHP Traffic page for the Arrowhead region and watch all of the city slickers get stuck, wreck, get chains wrapped on the tire, forget chains, drive a Prius during a blizzard, block driveways, and big rigs flip. I bet a young dude could make some bank putting chains on cars where the 330 meets the 18. $20 a car and you’d be raking in the dough.

          • RunningSprings6250

            LOL! That’s a plan!

            There are already locals in safety orange jumpsuits lined up just ready to pounce on any flatlanders holding chains with a bewildered look on their face….

            “OH, you don’t have chains either? I can sell you those too.” 😀

          • Crank Tango

            Is that what the cap’n meant by earning extra money walking the streets on weekends?

          • Zephyr (Crestline)

            Those jobs that involve tire chains and snow shovels, yes. Any others he was talking about, you’ll need to check with him…

          • Gotta go domestic!!! Sierra Nevada Celebration or Torpedo.

          • rainingintheLBC

            Try the Sierra Nevada Sidecar Orange Pale Ale…real solid new one!

          • Rio Rat

            I sold that stuff for over 20yrs,most Sierra beers to hoppy for my taste, Lagunitas works for me.

          • My son entertains me with craft beer. I’m a little down on this year’s Beercamp.

          • rainingintheLBC

            I didn’t try it this year. But in years past it was OK at best.

          • Pfirman

            Imported from upstate.

          • BigBearHiking

            yup, which is why I will stay put in the valley till it is all over and then drive to Big Bear with my spanking new chains in the car 😀

          • Zephyr (Crestline)

            Some of us are only sweating snow *level*…

          • RunningSprings6250

            Meaning you’re right at that elevation where it’s completely up in the air until it starts?

          • Zephyr (Crestline)

            Exactly. Meaning you know what you’ve got once it falls on your head.

          • scott

            You must be between 3000 and 5000ft. I feel your pain!

          • Zephyr (Crestline)

            Thanks- and yup. Just about right at 5000 ft. Slurpee heaven.

        • FR44

          I’m all dug out, and the Truckee plows came through today to fully widen the street. So I’m ready for more.

          • Cap’n

            Today is the first day of sun, warmth, and a little bit of melt. Feels good.

    • If this comes true I might have to ski from my house to your house. Is that possible? Looked like there is a lot of snow down in little Siberia when I passed through last night.

      • Cap’n

        Donner Lake run.

        • Pfirman

          Sure, but will you be able to get out to take him back? I mean, you already have Muzik.

    • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

      I’m in love..

  • scott
  • Mr Montana

    when’s the new new blog Daniel? The world is waiting? Anyway, here in Malibu these series of storms that are coming ( AT LEAST # 3) remind me of the ones when I was a kid that would swing in from the the south and just drench us more so than the cold fronts that march down the coast. The coastal zones would get more rain the inland areas and Zuma beach would turn into a giant left point break from the intense low swinging from the south. Every surf forecaster Is calling for massive surf – probably wrecked by winds but this weekend will be a sight to behold down here. So Daniel, tell us what to expect!

    • Someone else

      http://weatherwest.com/archives/5152#comment-3104477023

      HE COMMENTED ON THIS JUST A FEW HOURS AGO…

      • Crank Tango

        Thank you.

    • Tuolumne

      Daniel provides free commentary here and you’re putting time pressure on him. Bad internet behavior, and ungrateful too. No blogger is obligated to give you, me, or anyone else new posts unless you’re actually paying for some sort of promised content.

      • Chatman

        …take a deep breath…the visitor is just excited!

      • CanyonKid

        LOL, can’t tell if you’re serious…

      • Tuolumne

        Daniel wrote earlier today: “Update: will probably have a new post ready by early PM”.

        Early PM can reasonably be considered to be the first half of PM, or noon to 6PM. Maybe noon to 4 if you want to break PM into early, middle, and late. So before early PM is even over, somebody complains that the new free content isn’t up yet. Sorry, but that’s rude anywhere on the internet… basic netiquette.

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      He will do it when. He is ready too put it up and not when people tell him

      • Cap’n

        We’ll do fine without a blog post, just do your 15 post copy and paste sequence please, that’ll do us.

    • whisperingsage

      I agree with the group, but also, I get my CA weather from you folks. You all post some great graphs and diagrams and visuals and then give feedback as to what it’s doing at your area of the state. This is more helpful to me than any weather channel I can get. You keep us up on reservoir levels and river flows, and put up beautiful pictures. Can’t beat that with a stick.

  • Sokafriend

    I am hearing that folks on the southern side of the border think that the warning of heavy rain is fake news meant to scare people.

  • Thunderstorm

    Will the rain continue into February? The snails seem to think yes. There out and eating here. SF bay area by Fremont. Years past that meant wet and warmer.

  • Bombillo1

    The storm is stampeding in ahead of schedule. Not even god pays attention to the GFS.

    http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/west/nhem/weus/rb.html

    • Crank Tango

      I was thinking it was looking a little gloomy + doppler popping off to the west.
      #bust