After burst of early-season heat, a sudden shift to active weather across California

Filed in Uncategorized by on April 6, 2016 2,161 Comments

Recent Weather Overview

Record high temperatures well into the 80s and 90s were recorded on Wednesday across much of California. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits,com)

Record high temperatures well into the 80s and 90s were recorded on Wednesday across much of California. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits,com)

Essentially all of California received an early taste of summer-like temperatures this week. A very strong ridge of high pressure aligned with the West Coast brought very warm to hot conditions to a wide region–and and a number of temperature records were set on Wednesday from Southern California all the way north into British Columbia. This intense (but thankfully brief) heatwave comes on the heels of a period of relatively quiescent conditions across California.

As anticipated, the month of March did ultimately bring much-needed heavy precipitation to the northern 2/3 of the state–with many areas ending the month around 150-200% of the long-term monthly average precipitation. Southern California, on the hand, remained rather dry. This north/south split in precipitation has persisted through the entire winter despite the presence of very strong El Nino conditions in the Pacific. I’ve previously offered some thoughts as to why this might be occurring, and Bob Henson recently wrote an excellent piece on the relatively subtle storm track shift that plagued SoCal this rainy season.

All of California is expected to receive a soaking rain this weekend, and some spots could see rather heavy rainfall. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

All of California is expected to receive a soaking rain this weekend, and some spots could see rather heavy rainfall. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

There is some positive news to report: the Sierra Nevada snowpack as of April 1 is much healthier than in recent drought winters, and some of California’s most important (and largest) reservoirs are nearing capacity in the northern part of the state as a result of heavy precipitation in March. These two factors will likely alleviate some of the most acute short-term drought impacts this summer. On the other hand, though, it’s a bit discouraging that one of the strongest El Nino events in recorded history brought about a snowpack which, while much improved over recent extremely low snow years, was still below average. And the enormous magnitude of California’s long-term water deficits remain deeply entrenched from environmental and groundwater perspectives. So while much of California saw a modest reprieve this winter, our most severe drought on record is definitely not over yet.

 

Sudden shift to active conditions across California–especially south!

The rainy season is apparently not over yet, however, as a series of fairly robust storm systems are expected to sweep across all of California in the coming days. As of this writing, an unusually positioned cut-off low well to the southwest of Los Angeles is slowly moving northeastward, spreading mid and high-level subtropical moisture across the state. This low will continue to move closer to the SoCal coast tomorrow, bringing an increasing chance of showers in the very moist subtropical airmass. On Friday, this moisture plume will continue to spread northward, and showers will likely develop across most of NorCal as well. At the same time, a somewhat weaker but much colder Pacific system will begin to approach from the northwest, eventually merging somewhere near central California over the weekend. This is a rather “messy” pattern–with two lows interacting/merging directly over our region of interest. While the details are still a bit difficult to pin down, there is pretty high confidence in a period of rather active California weather beginning late Thursday and continuing at least through Monday.

Current water vapor imagery via satellite shows the subtropical moisture plume associated with the cut-off low west of Baja CA. (NOAA SSD)

Current water vapor imagery via satellite shows the subtropical moisture plume associated with the cut-off low west of Baja CA. (NOAA SSD)

Southern California will actually see the most precipitation out of this upcoming event, and some spots could actually see rather heavy precipitation (locally 1-2 inches or more when all is said and done). Accumulations in Northern California will probably be lighter but still rather widespread. Convective potential looks to be rather modest initially but will increase through the weekend, and so while isolated thunderstorms will be possible across much of the state on Friday, they may become somewhat more widespread (especially in the south) later in the weekend.

Interestingly enough, the GFS and ECMWF both indicate that this active spell will continue through at least the next 10 days, with a couple of opportunities for colder systems to drop down from the Gulf of Alaska through the coming week.

Given the chilly airmasses associated with these potential upcoming systems and the high April sun angle, instability will probably be respectable by California standards and additional periods of shower/thunderstorm activity will be possible. All in all, it looks like a fairly active first half of April is shaping up across the state. Stay tuned!

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  • inclinejj

    In Sac. Warm headed towards hot. Going to be cruising by Casa De Bandini in a couple.

  • Sokafriend

    Apologies if this was posted earlier. Thoughtful, sobering op ed piece from Bill Gail about ‘pattern changes.’ A New Dark Age Looms:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/19/opinion/a-new-dark-age-looms.html?_r=0

    • Bombillo1

      Great essay. Too well done to have been written by a mere journalist. My only critique is that he speaks about our condition 100 years from now and I would argue that all he envisions is here now. My work is more or less AG in nature, super dependent on water and temperatures. I am already in the position of being unable to anticipate how I need to prepare for my work.

    • PrimeMover

      Did he have a prediction of next winter and la nina? But yet he knows the pattern change in 100 years?

      A super volcano could explode tomorrow and put more pollutants in the atmosphere than the last 100 years. 5 years from now it could become colder.

      • Bombillo1

        Prime,

        Check out the video posted just below, by Wandering Tattler regarding the carbon cycle. You can not listen to that presentation and still be wondering as to the rigorousness of the research and what it means. We could get hit by an asteroid next year, nuclear winter etc and all of this would be pointless but the trajectory we are in is quite clear.

        • PrimeMover

          This stuff just frustrates me because of the politics involved in it. It’s hard to trust anything anymore.
          When we all watch 2 airplanes crash into the WTC and 3 bldgs. fall, and fall at free fall speed, and then have NIST say, it was from office fires. (Really? Lol!) How bout all of the climate change studies that have been compromised to satisfy a political side. I don’t trust any of it. We were talking about rain this weekend, and now, no rain. We can’t get a 10 day forecast 100% accurate.

          When the FBI is doing a year long criminal investigation on a presidential candidate and she is likely to be the Democratic nominee, I feel I’m living in the Twilight zone

          • WanderingTattler

            There is no compromised data for politics.
            http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~rtp1/papers/PhysTodayRT2011.pdf

          • Pfirman

            Some heavy wading there, but I learned some new things, like gases exhibit continuum absorption, or was it adsorption? And the sun radiates like a black body, wow.

          • WanderingTattler

            Yep, I had to read it a few times, and after a while if I read it again, I find new stuff to remember. This all happened long before Gore, and the science has been verified by an array of highly credible scientists. It is not a theory – it is real. My other favorite link is the following:

            http://newscenter.lbl.gov/2015/02/25/co2-greenhouse-effect-increase/

          • Pfirman

            And not a mention of Hansen. Heh.

    • DelMarSD

      It is interesting article, but I find the Malthusian claims sort of ridiculous.

      “We will face huge challenges feeding a growing population and prospering within our planet’s finite resources.”

      Funny, isn’t it, that Europe and Japan are suffering from low birth rates and an aging population. And who would of though that obesity would be a global epidemic 100 years ago?

      • Pfirman

        Obesity? You mean ‘famine resistant’?

        • DelMarSD

          Is that the new politically correct term?

          • Pfirman

            Sarcastically correct.

    • SteveBloom

      Hmm, that piece has a major conceptual error. Patterns are shifting all right, but they won’t be stabilizing until some considerable time (on a scale of centuries) after we stop increasing CO2. In the shorter term, the best we can do is slow the rate of change by bringing CO2 emissions to zero as soon as we can. If we are very lucky, we will not have tipped any carbon feedbacks (permafrost e.g.) into self-sustaining mode.

  • Utrex

    It’s 4/20 and such a beautiful day! Just don’t get caught…

    Anyway, holpe more rain comes down the line. I haven’t seen a single thunderstorm so far this year. It’s depressing.

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    Afternoon AFD from NWS Oxnard with an all too familiar theme. 🙁

    “Models continue to back off any chances for precip with this system. Even the latest ECMWF, which previously was the lone holdout for precip south of Pt Conception, is now pushing the measurable precip line north into SLO county. So rain chances have been removed from the forecast south of Pt Conception and lowered in the north.

    • RandomTreeInSB

      :)https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/08523644a5a261993d2b1c4fa6e46fbbdce9a73fc46ab04e62626f3e5ee8de6f.gif https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ea03c714129cd37e91ca37f511fca7c70905386d03e22445c290fb6db2e05f22.gif

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        I share the sentiment. Thank God that was an old CRT monitor, and not a brand new 27″ 4K display though. 😉

      • Duane

        Pretty much.

      • craig matthews(Big Sur)

        Atleast the Sierra still looks good for a decent precip event, and likely in the form of snow below pass levels.

      • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

        Everyone in So-cal: 🙁

    • craig matthews(Big Sur)

      Persistence continues to rule.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Yup, all too familiar. Just reached 91 degrees within the last hour which makes four consecutive days of 90+ temps here in the SGV. Mind you, the normal avg temp for this time of year is 74 degrees! Guess Daniel is right……this is our “new norm.”

      • Bombillo1

        I am ready to start broadcasting iron shavings into the ocean. I want out of this snuff film.

    • Black Cat

      Go home wx models your drunk!

      • matt (truckee)

        Or something else. It is 4/20 after all.

  • Black Cat

    Dew point is only 25F! That is dry my friends!

    • 82/83 El Nino Baby

      A indirectly related question on the notion of slowing or even stopping climate change. I have read that if we did not produce a single additional molecule of greenhouse gasses from today on, the earth would still warm per scientific projections. So does this mean that any action we take is for the benefit of those born hundreds of years in the future?

      I am not arguing whether humans cause climate change. I am just questioning the claim that we can still save coral reefs and glaciers by cutting greenhouse emissions. Seems to me in a devastatingly sad way, that those “ships have sailed” *so to speak.

      • It’s certainly the case that there is quite a bit of additional warming already “baked in” to the climate system from the greenhouse gases we’ve already emitted.

        But we still essentially get to choose how much additional warming we’re going to see based on the choices we make over the coming decade, and the difference between our current emissions trajectory and one of aggressive mitigation would likely yield a vastly different climate outcome by as early as 2040-2050 (and certainly beyond that).

      • William_LeGro

        Well, we don’t know what will happen if we try to stop global warming, but we know what will happen if we don’t try. Earth’s climate is now a runaway train with an enormous amount of momentum. That train isn’t gonna stop on a dime, but we have no choice but to slam on the brakes. Can we avoid demolishing that school bus stuck on the tracks? Maybe, maybe not. But we never know what we can do – we might surprise ourselves.

        Our species is pretty inventive and resourceful. But also politically and economically myopic.

        I’m reminded of a cartoon I saw years ago – it’s pouring rain, the car has a flat tire, Dad is getting drenched and miserable trying to change it, the kids are upset and screaming at him from inside the car, and he’s shouting back, “Whaddya mean? I can’t change the channel!”

        If we don’t try our best, it won’t be because we couldn’t – it’s because we didn’t really want to. It’s so much easier to just change the channel.

        Sorry for all the metaphor-mixing.

        • hermit crab

          Some people don’t know how to do risk/benefit.

          Risk: possibly harming world economy, possibly bad in short term, if try to reduce greenhouse gasses
          Benefit: Possibly saving human habitat

          Benefit: keeping world economy that we are used to, good for those doing well now, ignore greenhouse gasses
          Risk: Destroying human habitation

          What would our descendants prefer that we choose? Actually, it’s happening so fast, we might have to start thinking about saving our children’s lives. There seem to be some nasty feedback loops looming.

    • WanderingTattler

      I wonder how many people will continue to deny AGW. I was fortunate to visit the Barrier Reefs and it is heartbreaking to know that it has now mostly gone.

  • mattzweck

    I guess it’s going to be typical spring weather here in socal especially where i live high desert Lancaster area warm and breeze ugh. Next week it suppose to cool down a little bit but not by much. Very boring. The high just sitting on top of us.

  • Muzikman1

    I have been watching my doll with grave concern as we head deeper into Spring. First I questioned what I had originally witnessed, rubbing my mittens over my eyes to clear my vision. Then I saw it again, the first thing that I had seen before, even though that first time I doubted what I knew I thought I saw. But it became clear to me that my first observation was ultimately true, sending me twirling into nightmare land as I watched my young boy doll standing in front of the mirror.

    He was looking at his reflection and posing in a dress.

    Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh my baby boy has been dressing like a little girl in the confines of our shed!! He did it, he did what I had been suspecting for weeks, he dressed like a girl when I had stepped out to do errands.

    I watched him from outside of the shed through the window, propped up on a leaning tower of rusty bobbleheads. First he did a twirl and a proper curtsy to his own reflection. Then he feathered his bangs like I’ve taught him too and smiled back at himself. I smiled too. Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh I smiled to myself as he smiled to herself in the warm afternoon sun.

    I was watching him as she was watching herself.

    • inclinejj

      I knew wing nut would come around on 4-20

      • Pfirman

        I wish I had some ski poles to twirl in salutations.

    • Bombillo1

      Disquieting but interesting bit of metaphor, like looking at Van Gogh’s self portrait.

  • CHeden

    Looking very interesting for Friday in NorCal. Sacramento’s AFD has a nice summary of the anticipated setup which, if it comes together timing-wise could result in some serious convection with ooodles of local sheer to fuel possible land-spouts (tornadoes). http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDSTO&wfo=STO

    Here’s the current visible sat showing the last remains of the cutoff low just off Pt. Arena with the kicker storm in the GoA rapidly advancing east. The current track brings a strong vortex directly over Cape Mendo Friday morning and over inland NorCal in the afternoon..which is when the real action should be focused…especially near the “Chico Convergence Zone”…a notorious hotspot for creating havoc in the upper air winds. Two items will need to be monitored…how much cold air will drop in post-frontal behind the low and the timing of the main vortex relative to daytime heating. Camera’s ready…gas in the car…ready-set……

    • DelMarSD

      Looks like fun. Will be watching the radar.

  • William_LeGro

    It’s uncanny – how those promising systems get close, then just pull away. Such a tease! It happens so often that I’m surprised somebody hasn’t concocted a conspiracy theory about it.

    Oh. Wait. http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/engineered-drought-catastrophe-target-california/

    • hermit crab

      I don’t fall for it any more, here in Santa Barbara County.

  • Barney

    Full Moon a Risin’

    • inclinejj

      Nice!

      • Barney

        Is that where it’s at? Still good amount of water flowing into it from several creeks so hopefully it fills more.

        • inclinejj

          I just cruised by on 80. Are they doing road construction on old highway 40 aka Donner Pass Road?

  • palmsprings

    First triple-digit day of the year here, topped out at 100.6F :'(

    • redlands

      Whats the earliest u have recorded there in Palm Springs, Ca — What type of weather station do u have ???

  • Fairweathercactus

    When I am older I will have the liberty of telling my kids that I lived through the last great winters in So Cal. Yes yes gathering around and CRT monitor eating a cheese pizza that will be $30.00 thanks to higher minimum wage, and I will get my old VHS tapes proving that we once had real winters.

    • DelMarSD

      Lol.

    • Nice!

    • WanderingTattler

      If the minimum wage were increased to $15 an hour, prices at fast food restaurants would rise by an estimated 4.3 percent, according to a new study. That would mean a McDonald’s Big Mac, which currently goes for $3.99, would cost about 17 cents more, or $4.16.

      EDIT

      Most Seattle employers surveyed in a University of Washington-led study said in 2015 that they expected to raise prices on goods and services to compensate for the city’s move to a $15 per hour minimum wage.

      But a year after the law’s April 2015 implementation, the study indicates such increases don’t seem to be happening.
      The interdisciplinary Seattle Minimum Wage Study team, centered in the Evans School of Public Policy & Governance surveyed employers and workers and scanned area commodity and service prices. The team’s report found “little or no evidence” of price increases in Seattle relative to other areas, its report states.

      Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-04-effect-prices-minimal-year-seattle.html#jCp

      • Bombillo1

        I am all for everyone getting a raise, particularly those at the lowest end of the income scale. However, I do think that it is a bit disingenuous to predict a price increase for the McDonald product by looking at just THEIR employee overhead and calculating the resultant price of their product. Their entire supply chain needs to be analyzed as all Mac’s input costs are going to increase as well, not just their OWN payroll. This will be an interesting experiment but my basic reaction is that it is difficult to legislate prosperity.

      • inclinejj

        If you eat fast food you have bigger problems to worry about

        • WanderingTattler

          Yep, the problems are probably low pay, and too many jobs to cook a proper meal.

          • inclinejj

            My Mom and Grandpa taught me to cook when I was tall enough to stand on a stool and help them!

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby

        The problem is that the minimum wage does not help solve any of the problems of those in low income jobs. Service jobs tend to be the most replaceable and this will become even more so in the near future. Think about who will be most effected by the use of robots and touch screens in fast food restaurants, checkout lines at the grocery store, etc.-Service workers. The increase in the hourly wage is good for them in the near term, but the way the global economy is moving, at some point, there won’t be jobs for people that are not educated or lack a specif skill that is in demand by companies and government organizations.

        Currently in the US about 20% of students a year do not graduate from high school. How can our economy continue to provide jobs for these individuals, let alone good paying jobs, when we can get the same level of service from a robot? Do we purposely not advance so we can provide jobs? If a machine can pave a road in half the time it would take 100 workers, and only two people are needed to operate the machine, is that an advancement we should hope for, or do we stick with a manual labor only policy? A bit off topic, but I feel like this push for a higher minimum wage is less about solving the real problem and more about getting people worked up for elections.

        • Flunking_retirement

          my cynicism of politics says its all about something even more sinister,. But hey, im just an old fart, that remembers when we were left alone to either learn the hard way, or fall on our own sword. Back to Weather.

        • WanderingTattler

          The education in this country is really bad – and becoming worse as it costs more. It is really blind and dumb – because an educated citizenry is a more productive, healthier and informed citizenry. And current low-paid jobs are not only filled by the uneducated. They are often filled with people over-educated for that job. There was once a claim that an increase in population has meant more prosperity for a country, because there were more people to do the work. I believe that over-population has the opposite effect. Too many people chasing too few jobs.

        • DelMarSD

          Totally agree.

        • WanderingTattler

          Actually, the minimum wage today if inflation is taken into account, is far lower than it was 50 years, 40 years, 30 years ago.

    • rainingintheLBC

      lol, good stuff!

  • DelMarSD

    Cool radar image of Texas thunderstorm now:

  • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

    I have this theory: Maybe if the Pacific Ocean isn’t such a garbage-filled hot-blobbed mess, we would have got much more rain this year than we have now. We’re facing unsustainable consequences if we deal with another drought year or two. Look at Cachuma and Lopez lakes, it’s in worse shape than ever before.

    Sorry for being a Debbie Downer. I’m just not feeling optimistic about the weather these days.

    • Don’t forget about the Monsoon Season!

      • William_LeGro

        Yeah! Since the monsoon is failing in India, maybe it’ll succeed here! I’m willing to exchange winter rain for summer rain, as long as we get rain.

  • Bombillo1

    Trinidad on the afternoon of 4/29. Fog coming into the bay with the sky hinting at the incoming system. Perhaps one of the last for the 2015-16 rain season. This has been a very dry past 30 days, even in extreme Northern California.

    • Flunking_retirement

      Nice!

    • Pfirman

      Wow, you can see into the future.

      • Bombillo1

        Date error. Corrected now. Recovered my 20/20 hindsight.

        • Pfirman

          I know, but I could not resist. I was thinking maybe you were celebrating 4/20 a day early.

  • Thunderstorm

    If anyone is interested you can see what the major wildfire outbreak in British Columbia is by going to bcwildfire.ca

    • Bombillo1

      If it is any consolation to our Canadian neighbors, the coming California fires are going to be much more devastating as they are going to displace hundreds of thousands of people. BC will be able to chalk these fires up to a fuel reduction event.

      • Arnold Weather Fanatic

        As we watch the tree companies take down a host (gaggle?) of beetle-infested pines in our neighborhood, we are really looking forward to the prospect of evacuating yet again 🙁

        • JMS

          The southern Sierra is just devastated by tree mortality. I was up to my family’s cabin last weekend. In many places, there are more dead trees than living. Undergrowth has bounced back this winter, but that will just be the ladder to get the fires to the canopy. We can have some extreme fires this year! Hopefully the monsoon storms are not just dry lightning, but I expect some storm events with 10s-100s of strikes that make quick fire response impossible.

          • Arnold Weather Fanatic

            Where are you, JMS?

      • Pfirman

        Some areas have the minimal consolation of having already burned with not much left to worry about.

  • inclinejj

    When you have a good looking wife who says ok dweeb, droll over the dopler I’m going to sleep, you have a serious problem

    • Bombillo1

      Hard for young people to get this, but intellectual stimulation can be very compelling.

      • inclinejj

        Oh I get it.

    • Charlie B

      It is sometimes tough to prioritize things.

  • AlTahoe

    Nws Reno is going with a stronger and colder system for tomorrow now. My guess is 3″ for lake level. We were planning on going to squaw valley on Saturday and they could get a foot of new snow

    • Barney

      Yeah I’m hoping my last weekend at Sugie performs, you’re right, seems like a foot is possible. Wish it was coming in at night though, gonna be tough accumulation during the day.

      • inclinejj

        Yep longer days, warmer temps, higher Sun angle

  • WanderingTattler
  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Interesting little article about some good news in the Sierra’s, young Sequoia trees are beginning their hopefully long lives in the Rough Fire burn area thankfully to this seasons NorCal storm track. I wish there was more recent documentaries specifically about the Sierra Nevada mountain range and it’s diverse climates and native wild life including the eastern Sierra’s and the less commonly discussed western Sierra foothills. Does anybody know of any films in that category I could check out? Here’s the link to the article from the Sequoia/Kings NPS. https://twitter.com/sequoiakingsnps/status/723161374495363072

    • Good news. I’ve wondered to what extent fires burned centuries ago in CA. For example in the Santa Cruz Mtns it’s almost a given that the big redwoods have burn scars, and/or burns into the tree. On a side note even in ‘warm’ days on the MRY Peninsula, you can hear the MRY pine cones crack and see seeds twirling to the ground. Most but not all of the landscape redwoods planted here are looking much better. They basically were brown last summer. It’s going to be touch and go this summer for them and I’m pretty sure they can’t take another couple years of below normal rainfall and above normal temps.

      • inclinejj

        I watched a documentary about this. They said summer and fall fires burned until it started to rain.

        • Do you have a link or some key words I could google to try to get more info?

        • Bombillo1

          Pretty much as it is now. No one “puts out” the big ones.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Coastal redwoods that have an open source of marine layer for example coastal valleys, hillsides, mountains etc. should fair better this coming summer. With La Niña on the way colder waters should aid in that familiar cold sea breeze and thick wall of fog that hangs around the coast all day like a wall even while hot inland. They have branches leaves built to be a dripping source for any condensation, typically this keeps them cooled especially north of the SF Bay.

    • William_LeGro

      Drought is killing millions of trees in California. I hate to quash hope, but even if the sequoias sprout, how can they grow?

  • Fairweathercactus

    Dry air can go take a hike. I dont remember a year since 2006-2007 where my skin has been so dry. My elbow feels like sand paper.

    • William_LeGro

      my nose bleeds, my lips peel, my eyes sting

    • annette johnson

      I think we’ve adapted in the Colorado River Valley…chapstick and lotion are always within reach, and humidifiers in the house…however, when we do get humidity July-Sept, we are not quite sure what to do with it…lot’s of bad hair days!

  • CanyonKid

    A little recap on the past rainy season in Santa Barbara.

    http://www.independent.com/news/2016/apr/21/drought-watch-blob-pummels-godzilla/

    • hermit crab

      HELP!

  • Mid-April Update for ENSO forecast from http://iri.columbia.edu/ Graph plus each model. Tom-Boy-Tina La Nina.

    • Guitar_grrrl

      Makes me wonder why Scripps is such an outlier?

      • Good read.. here is last sentence…still I recommend reading it all.

        http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-iri_update

        “A caution regarding this latest set of model-based ENSO plume predictions, is that factors such as known specific model biases and recent changes that the models may have missed will be taken into account in the next official outlook to be generated and issued in early October by CPC and IRI, which will include some human judgement in combination with the model guidance.”

      • I should add that model bias does not imply a bad model.There’s a long way to go.

  • alanstorm

    This, along with that stalled dumpage 2 weeks ago for Central Ca, I would say qualifies as an Ampil April (at least for 2/3 of the state)
    Is that SNOW for the Sierras???

    • The ‘stalled dumpage’ was in a very defined area and some got it and others did not. I’d rather have had it more in the coastal ranges and central Sierra

      • alanstorm

        Sure, it rained rather steady & heavy for 36 hrs from from Sac to Fresno, the heart of the REDS on the Drought Map. Areas around Merced got nearly 3″. Once STALLED, it rotated westward nicely & drenched the whole of the Bay Area.(that freshly green area) It was a darned fortunate storm. This one incoming will be colder, so u may get your wish!

        • I did enjoy it in south Bay! 🙂

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      Oh that .01 line can creep 50 miles south for me please.

      Its really interesting how models (even GFS) showed this storm closing off and spinning right over SoCal not to long ago. All the ingredients we’re there with a high pinching off into British Columbia, but somehow a rouge anti cyclone keeps forming at 135W preventing this from occurring? Even the cut off over the mid west finally moved with an obvious wavelength opening up. Just seems so strange how this keeps on occurring and no one has an explanation for it. I know its spring and the jet isn’t strong, but there seems to be a fundamental flaw occurring…

      • alanstorm

        True. The jet has been abnormally weak the last few Drought years & is the cause/symptom of whatever is behind it all (Arctic Warming?changing oceans? CO2? All of the above?)
        A 50 mile rain-line difference is rather small for a state with an 840mi coastline

        • Shi(f)t this past winter’s jet 840 miles south! All of Ca put on happy face.

      • Bombillo1

        It is by design. There is no cosmic conspiracy, it is just that we are on the losing end of the climate change paradigm. There was an article this morning in Business Insider saying that for the majority of the United States, the climate is improving. The argument was that growing seasons were lengthening, the colder climes more temperate etc. The comment section was the usual idiotic excoriation of climate scientists for not being able to have correct 5 day forecasts etc.

      • hermit crab

        Point Conception is demonic.

    • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

      A little bit of purple rain, please.

      • Bombillo1

        Red is my wish. Taylor is weak but surrounded by giants in this version.

        • alanstorm

          Who’s Taylor Swift?
          A hot weather-girl?

          • Bombillo1

            She has the figure of Popeye’s Olive Oil and parades around as if it is otherwise. Comical really.

          • inclinejj

            Every song she sings is about a stupid x boyfriend.

            She sure did a good job creating a band out of sucky music.

  • Whittier weather dude

    Once again la county is a loser on rain

    • Bartshe

      5 years and counting

    • inclinejj

      A tad further south and it comes right over me in Southport

    • alanstorm

      That settles it. I’m building a TIV from a ’74 Monte Carlo

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        I’m on deck to help!

        • alanstorm

          Ok- here it is. At around 4500 lbs & low, it should withstand those RFDs & a 454 big block for chasing down those cells on Hwy 5 around Williams. Will have to get the sunroof to work so we can pop out for some IMAX footage

          • That was THE ugly bumper year for sure.

          • alanstorm

            Great for running people off the road who don’t like my bumper

          • They were good for popping off kneecaps, too. :-))

          • Pfirman

            Buick Roadmaster would be better.

          • alanstorm

            That’s a tank of a TIV

  • craig matthews(Big Sur)

    Well defined marine layer early this morning along the sur coast.

  • craig matthews(Big Sur)

    LOL at the 12zGFS forecast at +168hr!! Here we go again. Default pattern- inside slider. Lets see if this one will finally break this ugly streak.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      We need to break this streak of the Atacamaization of our weather patterns!

    • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

      Yeah.. I hate to be pessimistic, but even the GEFS (ensemble) and the 12z euro today is showing more of an inside slider.. Still time for that to turn around, but I won’t get excited about that low until 2-3 days out at this point.. It wouldn’t surprise Me if it took an inside slider track, hopefully this one does break the ugly streak though!

      • This one wants hang around just a wee bit longer. Activity in the Sierra most of next week

        • AlTahoe

          Reno 3pm update has cold storms for us tomorrow, Monday (even colder) and next Wednesday. I like it.

          • I think you’ll have a good time next week! El Toro is still green but your cardboard slider hill on SE side is drying out. Decades ago we’d buy blocks of ice and find a real grassy hill and zoom-zoom

          • AlTahoe

            We used to climb up to the top of El Toro and hit golf balls with an aluminum bat when we were kids. 🙂

          • Aluminum? 🙂 In my youth, “Bat Day” at Candlestick meant getting a Louisville Slugger wooden bat. I think they were anywhere from 27 to 32 ounces. Imagine a give-away like that today…

          • Pfirman

            Whatever the bat, swing for the seats.

          • Pfirman

            I have done that in the hills above Berkeley. In the fourth grade I lived on Potrero Hill (San Francisco) where we would sit in soaped up wooden boxes and slide down the sidewalks. If you were really crazy you would slide on the sidewalks that had steps.

      • craig matthews(Big Sur)

        I’m seeing a window of opportunity headed into May as the Asian-Npac relaxes and the wave height pattern stagnates a bit more, allowing the ridge nne of Hawaii to locate a little further to the northwest, which could allow more room and time for GOA energy to dig further west over CA. I think May is going to be a wetter/wilder month for a greater part of the state including socal.

        • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

          I hope your right about May especially in SoCal because Los Angeles only has a 4 in 100( approx.) chance of recieving any rain during the month of May. So I am being bold and really taking a chance when I predict that SoCal will see at least one or two more storms
          Before the season wraps up.. I’m sticking to my guns on that prediction and do think we will see more rain.

          • Pfirman

            If you are sticking to your guns you need to take the magnets out of your pockets.

    • Patrick McGuire

      18Z shows it too. For Stockton it looks like we really get hammered, similar to the last system that gave us 1.86 inches in 2 days! I’m really keeping my eye on this one.

  • Barney

    A little hope for a little powder Saturday morning. Winter Storm Watch hoisted out of Sacramento.

    • AlTahoe has been watching them from afar all season.

      • AlTahoe

        This storm is going to over perform for my location. The last couple of seasons the Spring time storms always over perform. It is the mid winter storms that can’t deliver anymore for some weird reason.

    • Crouching Dallas

      Send it a bit south, Shakaman! BA did inspire quite some confidence with his post this morning

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Looks like there will be some isolated areas of convection possibly even reaching down to the Ventura County mountains and the western Mojave desert for this next system when it finally moves through. The whole SJV should be bumped up for T-storm pops and those classic afternoon single cell thunderstorms that cross from west to east or vice versa. It will be interesting to see how the short range models take this one on.

  • RandomTreeInSB

    Daniel, can you delete my comment? It keeps appearing on the top of the page and for some reason I cannot remove it. Thanks.

  • Mike

    DWR announced an increase of State Water Project allocation up to 60% today. That’ll keep my wells off for the rest of this year.

  • Nate Wire

    Here’s a cool radar image of the low moving over the Midwest from this morning:

  • I think when y’all see this just keep up voting or comment. Maybe drive a stake into it? It’s haunting 🙂

    • RandomTreeInSB

      Heh.

      • craig matthews(Big Sur)

        There you go ^ 😉

        • RandomTreeInSB

          Yay! Weird I know.

          • craig matthews(Big Sur)

            Its making me jealous that you’re getting all the attention lol 😉

          • Pfirman

            New post by Daniel and this fades into oblivion. Seriously, I think it has to do with his joke post written in cursive that started “this post has been deleted”. I don’t really know, and now, don’t really care.

      • Crouching Dallas

        Good point. I’d expect WAY more than 14 upvotes after a 48 hour monopoly on the conversation. Seriously, guys? Where’s the whole lotta love?

      • I already collapsed that comment. It was annoying me. Hahahahahaha

      • Yeah don’t up vote my post up vote yours

    • Crouching Dallas

      Maybe Daniel just really likes my joke about the GFS being wasted and wanting two Double Western Bacon Cheeseburgers at 3 in the morning without having anybody to drive it through the drive thru?

      Or it’s a glitch, I guess.

  • craig matthews(Big Sur)

    Decent 12 hour totals portrayed by 18zGFS in the sierra by tomorrow evening. 18Z ever so slightly wetter-further south with the precip.

  • tomocean

    Some nice build-ups happening and the wind has really picked up in the northern foothills east of Sacramento. I always seem to appreciate these final storms before the heat comes the most.

  • Guest

    Incoming! (Golden Gate Bridge from my evening bus)

  • Mike Z

    Looks like tomorrows rain was written out of the forecast for So Cal yet again. And chances for next week’s storm are vanishing just as quickly…. to be replaced by… More wind! (Yeay…. Not).

  • jstrahl

    .13 inches of rain in central Berkeley, came in the 4-7AM frame, sky still cloudy, windy.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Chain controls are up over Donner Summit, snows been falling since around 8am, winds died down once the storm came in.