Extraordinary winter warmth and dryness to persist as West Coast ridge dominates

Filed in Uncategorized by on February 1, 2018 5,153 Comments

Summer in January; Sierra Nevada snowpack nears record low

Well below average precipitation has been widespread so far this winter across most of the American West. (WRCC).

Remarkably warm conditions have persisted for most of the winter thus far across the entire American West, except for the far Northern Rockies. (WRCC)

Despite the calendar, it sure hasn’t felt much like the middle of winter across California in recent days. While well above average temperatures and below average precipitation have been widespread throughout the state, recent warmth and dryness have been especially concentrated across Southern California. Immediately following the warmest autumn (and before that, warmest summer) on record, a legitimate mid-winter heatwave baked the southern third of the state this week, setting numerous high temperature records. In fact, anomalous offshore flow brought daytime temperatures near 90 degrees and overnight lows above 70 degrees near the Pacific coastline–temperatures that would be well above average in these areas in June, let alone January.

While temperatures in SoCal have now moderated somewhat, they’re still quite mild for this time of year (running a “cool” 10-15+ degrees above average).

Snowpack is at or near record low levels across much of the American Southwest this February.

Additionally, this highly anomalous warmth has now spread northward across the rest of the state–bringing spring-like temperatures to the Sierra Nevada and inducing unusual mid-winter snowmelt. The statewide snowpack has already been tracking near record-low levels for most of the winter (partly due to modestly below average precipitation but mostly due to far above average temperatures), but the ongoing warm and dry spell will likely melt what little snow currently exists below about 8000 feet in elevation. The lack of snow in California so far this winter is actually part of a much broader “snow drought” that currently extends across most of the mountainous interior of the American West, from the Cascades in Oregon to the Front Range of the Rockies in Colorado. Much as in the Sierra Nevada, these largely snow-less conditions are the product of both below average precipitation and above average temperatures across a wide swath of the Southwest so far this season.

 

“Severe drought” has returned to parts of Southern California

Today’s update of the U.S. Drought Monitor suggests that “severe drought” conditions have returned to parts of Southern California–most notably, Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties, where huge tracts of land have recently been burned by the nearly 300,000 acre Thomas Fire (in December) and/or the localized but devastating debris flows and flash floods (in early January). That might not come as a surprise to local residents–many of whom will point out that California’s multi-year, statewide 2012-2016 drought never really ended locally (where Lake Casitas, the only source of water for several communities, is running at about 35% of capacity). While the Northern California reservoirs are generally in much better shape due to carry-over from last year’s deluge (and California’s big cities, which are all tied into the state water system, are therefore unlikely to experience water restrictions this year), California’s wildlands and ecosystems will most likely experience more immediate adverse impacts from yet another warm, dry winter. The recent drought was a major factor in the bark beetle-linked mortality of well over 100 million Sierra Nevada trees in recent years. Despite last year’s wet and cooler reprieve, these drought and beetle-stressed forests have yet to recover from the intense multi-year drought that preceded it–so there is serious concern that forest mortality could accelerate once again during the upcoming dry season.

Los Angeles has experienced only a single day of precipitation greater than 0.33 inches in nearly 365 days. (NOAA)

Just how dry has it been in Southern California? As a current resident of Los Angeles, I found the following statistic especially striking: if the city reaches February 19th, 2018 without a significant rain event (as currently appears plausible), there will have been only a single day with more than a third (0.33) of an inch of precipitation in the preceding 365 days–a full calendar year.

 

A big West Coast ridge has returned…and it looks pretty resilient

GEFS and ECMWF ensembles both strongly suggest persistent ridge will keep West Coast dry for 2+ weeks. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

At risk of sounding like a broken record: a strong, persistent, broad, and anomalous ridge of atmospheric high pressure has yet again set up along the West Coast. All indications are that it will probably stick around for the foreseeable future (certainly for the next 10 days, and plausibly for the next 2-3 weeks). This may sound a bit odd to those accustomed to the typical weather prediction mantra that anything out beyond about 7-10 days is essentially unpredictable. But recent evidence suggests that under certain circumstances, large-scale atmospheric predictability can be much higher over longer periods. The present instance of prolonged, stable ridging near the West Coast appears to be one of these situations, given the remarkable multi-model ensemble agreement that the large-scale flow pattern is unlikely to change much through at least mid-February (and perhaps even longer than that).

One atmospheric dynamics-related reason for this high confidence: the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) yesterday reached its highest amplitude in recorded history, and appears to be be “stuck” in a phase that favors strong West Coast ridging and warm/dry California conditions. MJO-California weather linkages are a complicated topic that’s a bit beyond the scope of this brief blog post, but there are some good resources out there on the web for those who are interested in learning more.

The infamous precipitation “donut hole” over California will most likely persist for the foreseeable future. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

This doesn’t mean that it will be completely dry across the entire state, but it does suggest a very high probability of far above average temperatures and well below average precipitation during what is typically the wettest part of the year in many parts of California. This appears to be an unfortunate case where the seasonal forecast models–which predicted a warm and drier than average winter in California, especially across the south–did a pretty good job. As many folks have pointed out, California’s seasonal precipitation is often dictated by the occurrence of just a handful of strong storms each year–so it’s still possible that a robust storm sequence in late February (or another “Miracle March“) could bring a remarkable turnaround in short order. But while that possibility remains on the table, the odds are long.

 

Some brighter news: a Weather West milestone!

Recently, the Weather West blog hit a bit of a milestone: 10 million visitors since 2006! Even more impressive, I think, are the 250,000 (and mostly on-topic!) comments that have accumulated (occasionally over 5,000 per blog post!). That’s a real testament to the engaged community that has flourished here over the years. I want to sincerely thank everyone who has helped make this site what it is today!

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  • I didn’t see this posted below. Time to stir the pot.
    KylesMomWhatWhatWHAAAT.mp3 WWHandgrenade.jpg
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/49fcf42180a293f604f8cf7268ae8e2efbca82a3c7ecf138b19b0211ad968a66.png

    • Deckard: “Enhance 224 to 176. Enhance, stop. Move in, stop. Pull out, track right, stop. Center in, pull back. Stop.” https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c392c77a827aa5fce651a8338195fd8ce9482f052fb1dd589923458cc431f0df.png

      • @disqus_riN0OmAGxs:disqus @AlTahoe:disqus @disqus_I3StaIVZHr:disqus @disqus_238W9Av0gQ:disqus @mattmlTruckee:disqus
        Snow across the West down to 4-5k? Can it be? Did I oversleep from a coma and it’s April 1st?

        • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

          Can only hope….missing you epic videos from last winter from Donner Summit.

          • I’m editing together some that never were released….

          • Cap’n

            Did you ever have any experience with Norm Sayler last winter? Summit legend. I was just watching some of your videos. The guy on the cat plowing at Ski Ranch was a hard working SOB last year. Plowing those lots and the dirt lot across the street was like war. That dude went sleepless for days in January/February full beast mode and trying to manage so many listless Peruvians. What a crazy few months.

          • I’ve got some hilarious stories about said Peruvians, one of em ended up bunking in my room in the spare bed after her boyfriend ended up in jail for literally causing listlessness in Peruvians. Trashed their dorm drunk out his mind on stolen Sugar Bowl Bar booze. So much ridiculous stuff I’m not even including. I think may have fixed Norms computer. And I did meet that sleepless cat master. Btw I got tons of stuff I need to sit down and dump, but I failed to capture the craziest moment of the season, when I missed the turnoff for the SB parking garage in a blizzard and ended up halfway down a cliff in a dozen feet of fresh untouched snow. With a goddamn convertible. At 2am. With work in 5 hours. I might make a few blog posts on my website, there was so much going on with the mad amounts of snow.

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            Where were these vids

          • Cap’n

            David Lynch on Donner Summit:

          • PRCountyNative

            That was fun!

        • matthew

          I will go with April 1st. Been in the 60’s here. I am having a hard time imagining winter right now.

          • Charlie B

            Don’t worry. The silly concept of “winter” shall soon be vanquished.

    • Juggernaut

      GFS not feeling it all though 🙁

      • See below, the scientists who do this for a living threw it out, it’s verified by people smarter than us to be FUBAR at the moment.

        • Juggernaut

          thank god!

    • janky

      Please!!!

    • Bartshe

      Not going to happen, but nice to dream.

    • Yolo Hoe

      Good update from Mammoth Weather Guy Ted Schlaepfer this evening — there’s legit hope — saddle up

      • Dan the Weatherman

        Of course Bartsche says it’s not going to happen, but I hope he’s wrong!

    • Juggernaut

      The Euro is no longer feeling it either

      • As of 2:11PM PST 2/11/17, your words have been eaten.

  • DrySprings6250
    • Haha!

    • celo

      Real estate market has not been good for the last 150 years

    • Atmospheric_River

      Where’s Heaven Hole?

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Man, Euro within 3 days snow levels in the 2,500-4,000 foot range in the Bay Area with some showers, I want this so bad

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
        • janky

          Bring it.

      • Charlie B

        I think Holy “we” cows is prounced “wee”. I might be wrong, if so, sorry.

      • hermit crab

        What date of doom is this (some of us in south Santa Barbara County have been told it could only take about an inch of rain for the hills above us to try to kill us)?

        • sectionmaker

          Oxnard NWS says variable amounts, up to an inch some areas. We will see.
          heres from NWS saturday morning:

          Though moisture starved due to its continental origin, the trough
          will start to pickup moisture from the Pacific Ocean as it clears
          Point Conception. A cool and unsettled weather pattern with
          possible showers at times looks likely for next week. Model
          solutions suggest showers becoming likely south of Point
          Conception between late Monday night and Wednesday. Showers cannot
          ruled out north of Point Conception, though the flow pattern is
          not as favorable. Snow levels could drop to between 3500 and 4500
          feet. 700 mb temperatures in the model solutions are progged to
          drop to between -8 and -10 degrees Celsius. With the cold air
          mass aloft, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with this
          storm system and it continues to bear watching. There is still a
          range of possibilities in play including a `wet` Santa Ana, or the
          potential for upslope precipitation along the interior slopes of
          the mountains. Snow is also a possibility for the Antelope
          Valley. Rainfall amounts remain around a quarter to a half inch,
          with local amounts up to one inch. The highest amounts look to
          fall south of Point Conception.

          • hermit crab

            Hmm. I think I’m a bit scared.

      • celo

        The GFS 12z run begs to differ

    • Kelley Rogers

      The GFS shows nada… is it wrong?

      • Jim (Watsonville)

        Someone posted a few days ago that the experts arent using the GFS at all at this point…apparently theres something wrong with its outputs

        • Kelley Rogers

          I always knew it was dysfunctional! I would settle for cloudy skies at this point.

  • Fairweathercactus

    The cactus never sleeps. Waiting for the next model run.

    • Chris

      Get a life!!!
      Wait…… I can’t say that….. I’m up too ?

  • Yolo Hoe

    42F this morning in far southwest Davis — with the big news being the barometer has been steady under 30 for awhile — currently 29.94

    • There’s bigger news. Ensemble looks to be locking onto SSW/MJO Madness, major pattern change still on track for next week with some PNW Sag-Splatter hitting us and in theory a fatty snow dump. Witness the Wetness:
      https://imgur.com/WWUzD1c

      • matthew

        I am confused. The Reno afd, which I have found very accurate over the years, says “what does look fairly certain at this point is very minimal chances for any big pacific moisture taps in the upcoming two or so weeks”. Did they not read the memo about the gfs?

        • Freddy66

          the gfs is supposedly having a meltdown see below. So then this potential precipitation is bogus ?

          • sectionmaker

            Oxnard NWS says rain for south of Conception

          • Idaho Native

            Where is this comment about the GFS meltdown people keep referring to?

          • Freddy66

            See Jim’s comment below. Something about outputs

          • What I posted was gem not GFS. Euro sees wet too, as does JMA, ICON, etc

        • Taz & Storm Master

          oh freaking cares about the GFS at this point

          the GFS could be a outliner right now if the ecw gem and now Ensemble are starting too show a pattern chage

          • Yolo Hoe

            Good to see your still on the job — it’s crunch time!

          • matthew

            Or it could be correct.

      • Yolo Hoe

        Wake and bake just got better watching that visual — am still holding off on cranking Box of Rain, but starting to get an itchy trigger finger

      • janky

        I’m not buying it yet

        • Freddy66

          FWIW….12z is bone dry following the little cut off low for so cal next week

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            If you haven’t got the word yet, the CPC even scrapped the GEFS for the guidance over the next two weeks until it gets into better agreement with the EPS/GEM. Wouldn’t put much thought into the model at the moment with it’s heavy flips.

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            And GEM and Euro showing really cold weather for several runs in a row in the 8-10 day range

      • Bombillo1

        Oh, that’s completely normal and bankable. Middle of February we are going get some kind of system reluctantly leaking down from the Northwest that is then met by some subtropical, I don’t know what, off the coast of S. Cal but with the real southern epicenter being right over Phoenix? This is climatic schizophrenia that we we are welcoming into the house, otherwise we would have No friends at all.

        • I know. It’s odd. Phoenix should be the tail of weather in the winter not the center of it!

    • janky

      Kind of like GFS ops runs

  • matt

    Here in the high desert Lancaster area. Nice and windy for. Once. And barometer 29.78. nice to have a change. Hopefully will get some precip next week.

  • Tangocity

    Rainfall predictions are back up to 0.41 on the Oxnard plain for Thursday of next week. The forecasts are kind of like the stock market.

  • Fairweathercactus

    This morning a crow was fighting a squirrel on my block while a coyote was watching. Nature is active this morning.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Oh dear… The ball just keeps rolling. https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/962371230144909315

    • CHeden

      Probably related to the MJO?

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      What does this mean for us

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        The boy may return this year…

        • Freddy66

          From La Niña to El Niño in one year ?

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            Not really surprising given the variability over the last 5 years…

          • Freddy66

            Yeah…..but the old school of thought was that these roll around every five years or so. I guess with all the heat stored up in the oceans there is a quicker turnaround.

          • Freddy66

            So does that mean La Niña is dying a quick death right now ?

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            Born quickly it’s demise will be felt through Spring, then we return to neutral conditions for the summer… We’ll likely be watching the Niño build around that time.

        • Danny?

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Hat-tip to @AlTahoe pointing this out yesterday about the GFS compared to the GEM/Euro guidance. You can read the prognostic discussion here. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Thanks for linking the discussion for favorable prec chances across the Southwest. A February “miracle” perhaps, at least for SoCal

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        No problem Happ!

    • redlands

      What doesa that mean for southern ca

      • DrySprings6250

        A nice donut hole over Redlands.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        It means don’t bank on the GFS until it resolved the pattern. In fact most offices this morning are leaning Euro/Canadian.

  • Thunderstorm

    See that big low to the east of Hawaii. With the ridge moving to the NW looks like this low undercuts and heads for southern California.

    • weathergeek100

      That’s not the low that’s going to bring you guys rain. Your low will come from due north overland (inside slider), cut off from the jet stream and make a home off the coast of SoCal for a few days.

      Unfortunately, us here in the Bay Area will have to watch you enjoy your MUCH needed rain. We likely won’t get a drop.

  • molbiol

    Here is the latest from WPC at NCEP with regards their assessment of the models at the moment:

    VALID 12Z TUE FEB 13 2018 – 12Z SAT FEB 17 2018

    …WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK…

    15Z UPDATE…

    MODELS SHOW GOOD LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE
    WITH UPPER LOW PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN HUDSON BAY AND BROAD
    CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS NORTHERN TIER. THE
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO EXERT INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
    PERIOD, WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAINING IN PLACE FROM THE
    GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. PRIMARY FORECAST
    CONCERNS ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HOW
    QUICKLY AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SW U.S. COAST MOVES EAST AND BEGINS
    TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE POLAR STREAM, AS WELL AS TIMING OF AN
    UPPER SHORTWAVE/SURFACE FRONT CROSSING THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S.
    WED-SAT (BEFORE THE FRONT POTENTIALLY STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
    PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY FRI-SAT. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO HOLD ONTO
    THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TOO LONG ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC/U.S.
    SOUTHWEST, AND HAS ALSO SHOWN QUITE A BIT OF RUN-TO-RUN
    VARIABILITY. THE 06Z GFS WAS CLOSER TO CONSENSUS AS SHOWN BY THE
    ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS MEANS. FOR THE FRONTAL TIMING ACROSS THE NORTH
    CENTRAL U.S., A BLENDED APPROACH WAS PREFERRED, WITH NO SOLUTIONS
    CLEARLY AN OUTLIER. THUS, THE WPC FORECAST WAS INITIALLY BASED
    HEAVILY ON A MULTI-MODEL DETERMINISTIC BLEND, INCLUDING THE 00Z
    ECMWF/CMC/06Z GFS, WITH A TREND TOWARD HEAVIER GFS WEIGHTING BY
    DAYS 4-5 WHEN DIFFERENCES EMERGE SURROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN
    UPPER LOW. AFTER DAY 5, ENSEMBLE MEANS (00Z ECENS/NAEFS) COMPRISED
    A MAJORITY OF THE BLEND, WITH THE 06Z GFS ALSO INCLUDED. THIS
    RESULTED IN A FORECAST NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM CONTINUITY.
    SEE BELOW FOR THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM OVERNIGHT.

    ..OVERVIEW…

    A CLOSED LOW WILL WOBBLE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT
    WEEK BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK
    BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE REGION.
    BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE LOWER 48 WILL
    BRING IN COLDER AIR TO MONTANA IN TO THE HIGH PLAINS WHILE MOST OF
    THE COUNTRY SEES ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

    …GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT…

    LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
    ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN.
    TIMING DIFFERENCES INCREASED BY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH THE
    WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND ALSO THE SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COOLER AIR
    FRI/SAT THROUGH THE PLAINS BUT A BLENDED SOLUTION SUFFICED GIVEN
    THE UPSTREAM DIFFERENCES OVER THE PACIFIC.

    …WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS…

    PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA
    AND EVENTUALLY NEW MEXICO AFTER THE UPPER LOW NUDGES EASTWARD
    MIDWEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP RAISE PW VALUES TO +2 TO +4
    STANDARD DEVIATIONS WHICH SUGGESTS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
    DEPENDING ON OTHER FACTORS OF COURSE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
    BE ABOVE AVERAGE OVERNIGHT BUT BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE DAY GIVEN
    CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Worth repeating:

      “..OVERVIEW…

      A CLOSED LOW WILL WOBBLE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT
      WEEK BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK
      BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE REGION.”

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      That last paragraph is important for everybody to read, because we will be seeing a lot of discussion on temperatures and moisture with this cut-off low.

    • Sokafriend

      We just got an update- downpours off and in Mon- Wed, N Baja/ Border coastal region.

  • happ [Los Angeles]
  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    The GFS is like the weather channel. Heavy bias towards the eastern half of the country, basically ignoring the west.

    Changing the channel mom, lets put something promising and exciting!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f08f7ccfb14913339a7facded577562b9e92a84771f8d5e59d189e0714adfb09.jpg

  • Juggernaut

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fc81673443b086437c7aa62320a97246c45effba8ba2ed2fd00e1e00166e8138.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/711df3f450612c0c2831f1f8e6322984394fad9408859dfee62a95326b9f6a2b.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e9bf07aef0bc91e05fc2325de45dca100388007bb16676a30a019c6161578c37.png

    Yesterday there was a lot of talk about how GFS was outlier but it seems like the Euro is trending towards the GFS in the 10 day range. The Canadian seems like the outlier to me which is not a good sign. Thoughts?

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      speechless but not hopeless

    • Bombillo1

      Can’t we get just one weather system the old way, the Missionary Position, if you will?

      • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

        California has become convent of sorts.

      • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

        One with a long fetch?

      • DrySprings6250

        It’s an experiment in creating storms.

        Man made high pressure sitting in place so they can test out creating storms – like this one coming out out of friggen nowhere and in a completely bassackwards fashion.

        Yea I know but damnit the voices in my head lmao

    • AlTahoe

      Yep it trended towards the gfs

      • Juggernaut

        Any thoughts on why yesterday the GFS was viewed as such a pariah yet now it looks like it is the leader?

    • Fairweathercactus

      Rule of thumb for the rest of whatever this season has left the most dry model is the most trusted model.

  • Yolo Hoe

    Strong breeze from NW developing in far southwest Davis — temperature 68F and barometer steady at 29.93

  • alanstorm

    Great to see SoCal get some beneficial rains.
    Looks like Mendocino County will get exactly 0″ precipitation for February, which I’ve never seen in my lifetime.
    The creeks are drying up here & an extremely early wildfire season is looming, barring some sort of miracle Spring.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d8832b4bc83712d32360b922d380ad6bd703f841b447a48ecd8ffad9d4868de3.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dc519e00d19f15d28ca52902d665b0892c2c01509c34cabb58266b4578f99f47.png

    • Bombillo1

      This “event” is straight out of a Stephen King plot line. Not normal, weird, even unhealthy to me. It is like watching your dog walk sideways and falling over. Not right and makes me sad. Not celebrating here.

      • Cap’n

        My breaking point was Thursday, leaving work at 3:30 with a disturbing warmth. I really think we’re either going to get nailed in March (unlikely) or get hardly a thing for the remainder. I just don’t see much of an “average” end to winter. It is finally cool today with cold temps tomorrow – Tuesday before the warmth creeps back. This crap is a real drag.

        • Maybe it’s a bookend to an ‘f’d up 5-6 year pattern for CA. That’s what I’m looking at and hoping for.

          • Cap’n

            I would gladly take a 15-16 or 16-17 winter repeat. 30 years from now a 15-16 winter will look awfully tasty. This feels like end of days, minus the joggers and cyclists romping along.

          • I’d like to see some lower snow levels but that ship has sailed. In my ‘backyard’ I’d take a 2016-17 year for 3 out of 5 years. I’d like to see the arctic get crazy cold and the NP to cool off. Right now I’m having another beer watching my wife trim bushes in the back yard.

          • Cap’n

            Barking orders as well!? Mine is making lunch while I search various sources on the internet for a shred of hope. But I made breakfast so we’re keeping it even. I hear you, colder storms from the GOA would be nice but man will they Ever truly return?? So I was looking at my records. The crappy winter of 2011-2012 was somewhat salvaged by a pretty good March. Not miracle March status but I received a solid 61” on the west shore of Tahoe and most resorts were in the 90-150” range. Are you seeing ANY signs of a good March setting up? We really are going to need a miracle this year.

          • Westside

            Winter 2011-2012 turned out to be a pretty good year for skiing, it just started late. The last proper Goa storm cycle I can remember was December 2012. Several feet of cold snow down to lake level. If it wasn’t for that cycle we would of had no snow pack during the 2012-2013 season. I am looking for a miracle.

          • Yes December 2012.

          • Cap’n

            I got pictures floating around somewhere from Tioga Pass/Tenaya Lake New Year’s Eve 2011. Horrendous. We hiked Mt. Dana and Cloud’s Rest as well as ice skated Tenaya Lake for a three day trip. Needless to say Tioga was wide open. March did save that year. December 2012 was amazing, and then Nada after. The highs and lows are getting higher and lower each passing year.

          • janky

            Christmas week 2012 was insane. So deep at Squaw for a week straight. Days straight of over a foot of snow.

          • No signs of s Miracle March. It’s still too early to make even a silly wild arsed guess. I’m hoping for a normal Nina-ish March and April.
            I know @cheden and @805Weather have a much better grasp for short-medium range. It’s been a rough year forecasting long range. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dad486853a724739fdde9360ca8e0d28e4d4eff6ad88fa968bf1c3733541141b.jpg

        • AlTahoe

          I went disc golfing today with some friends and all the doggies. I guess year round disc golf is now a thing in tahoe!

        • malnino

          Lol. That last line is the most perfect summation of this entire blog, this entire non-winter .. shudda been the headline of Daniel’s blog post!!

      • Sokafriend

        My sense, too. It does, all put together, appear fairly ominous.

    • Drew Stofflet

      Yessum, like today is day 14 without a cloud on the Mendo Coast. 84 in SanRafael on Tuesday.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    As I mentioned yesterday it’s not the cut-off low that brings the bacon… It’s the clip of cold air originating from the Hudson Bay Low that will drive down across the PNW & phase with the cut-off low. If it weren’t for this phasing the pattern would be stagnant and we would once again likely see more influence of the NPAC ridge on our region. This however is not the case this time, as you can see the two lows phase near perfectly to reform a stronger more potent cut-off low which will be the rainmaker next week. You can even see the rest of the original cut-off low’s energy being sheared east into the westerly flow as it rounds the eastern side of the trough while continued strong northerly flow and retrogression simultaneously wraps the newly forming cut-off low together right on the central coast… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f569c9611fd905c35e54eb37e220da2fda08523451563c3ff39f37970919c89b.gif

    • Craig Matthews

      Excellent analysis’ 805! I’m really rooting for Socal on this one. The position of the CoL in last few frames of that run could be favorable for convection over the Santa Lucias/central scentral coast ranges as well. If it were a little later in the season with higher sun angle it could really generate some action. Of course, this happens right after I move to far Norcal, lol. We are likely looking at colder temps and a lot of wind up here.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        100% in the right direction with that last part. It really is too bad we won’t have you down there, but I’m sure you’ll be happy when we finish out this month. Northern folks won’t be left out by then…

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        You moved?

        • Craig Matthews

          I’m up in the hills west of Redding now.

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            Was weather your reason to move?

      • CHeden

        Welcome from Cottonwood.
        Let’s hook up?

    • Fairweathercactus

      Nice jet streak over my area.

    • Yolo Hoe

      Wow, that’s supercool — thanks 805 for the analysis + accompanying animation!!

      H

    • Excuse my ignorance, but what is happening? Lol

    • Craig Matthews

      Almost perfect symmetry w/ the centers. Awesome how we get to witness with today’s technology.

      • I’ve been sporadically screen shotting for a week. It’s really cranking up right now.

        • Craig Matthews

          Already making history.

    • Sokafriend

      This. too- through mid Wednesday- may be slow to load. but illustrates theorectical evolution.
      http://met-wrf.cicese.mx/WRF/D01/P01M/animacion_wrf_d01_p01m.gif

      • Yeah I like seeing that model from Mexico ??!

        • Sokafriend

          Encouraging, it is.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Damn nice graphic!

        • Sokafriend

          Muchas gracias- relectivity all around this region is steadily ramping up- ?- still a lot of next week’s heaviest precip forecast over coastal waters and SW of land, which is better- the soils in Baja can’t take more than gentle rain.
          Looking much better for S Cal mts- and it is way cooler tonight than past weeks. Temp now 62 low of 49 forecast- current DP 58- pressure faling now 29.85- light wind has switched around out of South. We have humidity again- 87%- ?
          I hope it cools off and snows in N Cal, more than anything.

  • Cap’n

    No cherry picking from the German or Japanese gardens today? Something to throw in the NutriBullet…?

  • AlTahoe

    We are having a sand/dust storm in Tahoe right now. I can’t even see the north shore mountains from south lake. You can see the dust pouring in from the east

    • Cap’n

      Windy here but not that crazy. Hey sounds exciting, at least it’s Something! Definitely colder today.

    • Chris

      Never, ever heard of that happening in tahoe before.
      Is this a first???

    • inclinejj

      It’s being blown over Reno/Sparks/Tahoe from the Black Rock Desert.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Seem to recall it use to happen more often before TRPA and various air districts made Caltrans sweep roads once storms cleared of the sand they’d put down for traction. With all the extended dry pattern not surprised there’d be dust picked up off the Nevada deserts and blown over the Sierra.

    • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

      The high desert is a giant sand storm right now

    • Charlie B

      Graeagle is dusty too.

  • kris

    Finally a chance of rain for my area tomorrow afternoon. GEFS and GEPS looks fairly wet for the Humboldt/del Norte County areas towards the end of the month. Though we got a long way to go before then. I’ve never seen a winter like this up here. All these clear nights (except for a few latel) and no frost since early December. Usually clear winter nights means frosty mornings. Not this year

  • Fairweathercactus

    Model riders and cherry pickers might need to bust out the tall can tonight if you trust wunderground forecast. For my area the rainfall total this morning for the week was 0.75. This afternoon it was cut to 0.07 and all the rain was replaced with windy icon that is almost never used for my area. Looks like most of LA County totals where bought down a lot this afternoon. Not sure why as the 18z came in stronger.

    • RandomTreeInSB

      I remember Daniel said in a tweet that most weather apps draws its forecast from a single computer model which is why it often fluctuates wildly.

      • DrySprings6250

        Which is why it’s pointless to watch the hourly back and forth…

    • weathergeek100

      Wunderground makes you wonder, accuweather is inaccurate, and weather.com is really weather.wrong.

      And definitely, don’t ever EVER read the forecasts from ‘Southern CA Weather Force’. That guy, Kevin Martin, is a criminal (seriously).

      NWS is all you need.

      • thebigweasel

        I just looked in on SoCal Weather Farce. I see we have a Cat 3 hurricane coming…

      • Duane

        That guy is still around???

    • Nate

      DO
      NOT
      USE
      WUNDERGROUND
      FOR
      QPF

      The most consistently accurate precipitation forecasts out there are under “Hourly Weather Forecast Graph” on the NWS point forecast page. Anything else is not to be trusted.

      http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-118.24118356933597&lat=34.05937979081263#.Wn-WYRjMwch
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8d6a11e28465cf7c0d96a8a9cad33b22f8da0a815e463de1325c97993e6f4e16.png

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Few more hours and then we’ll really be wishing for that storm to verify… The winds are coming in fast.

    • molbiol

      This why cutoff lows drive me crazy

    • Y. Pestis

      I’m hoping for the best but prepared for disappointment. Kind of a motto here.

    • thebigweasel

      Can you arrange it so the downpours are below the burn zones? Thanks!

      • hermit crab

        Yes. Please.

    • hermit crab

      I hate that when I click on these nothing shows. Dying to know what I’m missing…

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Scored a free nights stay in the downtown San Jose Hilton, thanks to the wife’s winning ways with raffles. The view from the 11th floor looking east at Mt. Hamilton with the Lick observatory shining in the late afternoon sun. Hills are green, a perfect weather day. Soon though, I know we all are hoping for rain to return for the second half of the month. Things look promising for next week according to some of the models.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e5df1fb88b2dd6b3633e7012b2f9ea3b941e70ada7efcac4a1a945cd6de5f989.jpg

  • DrySprings6250
  • molbiol

    DrySprings and 805 beat me to the punch. Here is how it looks on this windy evening in Lancaster. I’m sure Matt can chime in as well with a pic

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ea3926ad975918c770a4c15a79540c139cb4dbfb4aea48fe37f1c0ec8600a30d.jpg

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Nice! Was wondering if you or Matt were getting any winds yet?

      • molbiol

        Today was the first windy day in a very long time which is quite a feat here in the Antelope Valley; but this shows just how stagnant the pattern has been the last few weeks. Winds are dying down now as offshore flow kicks in. Once that occurs it’ll be your turn for strong winds (and high fire danger unfortunately)

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          That’s right I remember you saying now that you were getting offshore flow pretty good out there, but yes that’ll change soon.

  • Didn’t see anyone posting this GEM. Significant snowfall has shown up for a few runs now. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b4c810a58732bf2d93ea5aa73467c1a2dd064438e7bec6f15f3fa36dc6c29a6c.png

    • janky

      You’re trying to get me excited but I’m not taking the bait!

    • Lol.

    • weathergeek100

      Haha I don’t believe it for one second. If these runs are similar in about 5 days from now, then let’s talk:)

    • Juggernaut

      A lot less on the 00z

  • hermit crab

    Well I just moved back home to Carpinteria!!
    Nice and cool here. Is that the marine layer? I’ve forgotten what one looks like.
    Or maybe actual clouds?

    And I’m feeling like they will have to drag me out with a crowbar if it rains this week 🙁

    Never have prayed for rain to stay away before…

    I’m wondering, after the terrible devastation and deaths in nearby Montecito after the last rain, authorities will be quick to kick out those of us in the newly-drawn Extreme Risk zones (no. I’m not in a fancy home up in the hills. Just seem to have ended up in a not previously known bad topography area.)

    Watching the forecast very carefully. I’m assuming you here will know long before my local tv station if the hills above me are going to get wet 🙂

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      I always keep you in mind when forecasting these systems this season.

  • molbiol

    Final frame of the latest HiRes 4km NAM. Another 36 hours and the short range HiRes models should start to give us a better idea with this cutoff low. Right now though its still a little too early

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/469872e115d9ea04226b5b61753847ee89e78d9dd19f61af1d7dbefecc939f3a.png

  • Sumster

    Seems the models are going dry with the cutoff low for next week. Par for the course…..happens again and again

    • Sad Cactus

      You rely on the models too much bro. Model ? Reality

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
  • RandomTreeInSB

    (Debbie Downer alert)

    Seems like both GFS, EC 12z (waiting for the 0z) and ensembles backed off on the cutoff low. Can’t say I’m surprised. Also MJO is seemingly stuck in phase 7 for the foreseeable future, QBO negative, La Niña, Thomas Fire, the only storm of the season kills 22 people. We have some amazingly bad luck this year.

    Waiting for whatever the rest of the season has to offer.

    • Sumster

      Agree totally snake bitten…can it get worse?

      • RandomTreeInSB

        Although, cutoff lows are hard to forecast in the first place so perhaps this flip is temporary, either way I’m not getting my hopes up considering the trend so far this season.

    • Atmospheric_River

      Euro shows the MJO moving out of Phase 7 soon. Of course, it goes into the Circle of Death, but at least it won’t be feeding our ridge.
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d2a1c751657bdc4747ad0958e65da788e427ee797a3814b581a580aab6e65779.png

    • hermit crab

      It has been rough. I think a bit of Debbie Downer is excusable under the circumstances!

  • Anyone have any idea why as soon as this thing cuts off it is immediately absorbed into the westerlies and this wasn’t being shown for the past 10 models runs. Thought it could have been an outlier, but every 00z model shows this tonight. Hopefully EC comes out different.

    • molbiol

      The westward expansion of that 500mb ridge over the gulf of Mexico may be the culprit here

    • EC showing it too, RIP.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      I think you are overlooking the process… The clip of energy associated with the Hudson Bay Low that pushes down south out of the PNW is what turns into our actual cut-off low for the week ahead. The cut-off low that is poised to move into Oregon/Great Basin is the cut-off low all AFD’s have mentioned will phase into this clip of energy before that cuts off over Tahoe and begins retrograding SW. The forecast has not changed & hopefully this confusion can be squashed… I am seeing it a lot tonight.

      • So are the models not initiating correctly, or just performing poorly?

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          It’s not a performance problem, it’s the confusion between the two lows.

          • I see, thanks for the explanation btw.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            No problem, just wanted to help people understand.

  • molbiol

    Instead of having an emotional meltdown over the latest 00Z guidance, I think I will ignore the spectral models and focus on the short range HiRes guidance for the next couple of days. They tend to handle cutoff lows much better (relatively speaking)

    • RandomTreeInSB

      If you’re referring to me then sorry about that, I’m not having a particularly good day today. However it’s best to just keep our expectation low for such a tricky forecast.

      • molbiol

        Actually I was referring to myself since I would love to see some T-storm action out here or ANYTHING and I am about to have a meltdown since I have been riding the models much harder than normal. No need to apologize!! Believe me, I am also having a rough year for non-weather related reasons

        • RandomTreeInSB

          I hear you, and yeah, unfortunately it’s been a tough year in general, weather-related or not. For the sake of our collective sanity I’m hoping against hope that things changes for the better.

          • sectionmaker

            yes. weird year for SB..Everyone now really freaked over any rain whatsoever. Maybe change my screen name to Sprinkles. I’ve been out and about my neighborhood abit and the damage is really hard to fathom.Creeks up in the Mts look like high altitude mountain passes now. Open rock channels, 4x wider, to older landform markers… you can see this has happened before.

    • Ugh!

  • Rusty Rails

    HyPe!!!

    Local news says chance of sprinkles Sunday.

    We’re saved!!

  • Fairweathercactus

    This place is about to melt down faster then fukushima.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Cool breeze and change of wind direction here

    • Atmospheric_River

      Offshore wind, probably. Humidity levels are pretty low.

  • Sumster

    It really is amazing to have virtually all models and ensembles agree on an event ~4 days out then almost totally flip in a matter of ~12 hours. FWIW – Everybody seems to rant about the EC accuracy, honestly it seems at least for the west coast i not to be any more accurate than the other models, even worse often times.

  • Charlie B

    It is a late night in Graeagle. The fire inside is shimmering and the stars outside are bright. There are a few patches of snow where last year there was four feet on the level.

  • JR

    I can’t stand this warm weather we’re having now. I also don’t think that we’re not going to get anymore rain until at least next season and I live in Nor Cal. Blame it on the hipsters.

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    Well, well. A 60% chance of snow here tomorrow. Not much, but it would be helpful. Odd path for the storm.

  • Chris

    Wow! 32 in Morgan Hill this morning. I guess winter is kinda-sorta back

  • Yolo Hoe

    34F and barometer steady at 29.92 in far southwest Davis — WY thus far totals 6.02” rainfall with 0.00 for February.

    Seeing that pressure at something less than 30 somehow gives me hope that Crash’s visuals will become reality — in the meantime, will enjoy another great day for bicycle riding while wondering how long the green hues can hold on.

  • WXPhotographer

    To my friends in SoCal, don’t look at the 00z and 06z runs.

    • DrySprings6250

      Discussion this morning said it might be scooted east Wednesday instead of Friday – and incredibly just half a day before precip is suppose to start here they still make note of poor model performance and thus low confidence forecast – nerve racking! LOL!

  • CHeden

    My oak tree is showing early signs of budding.
    Sorry for the poor backlighting.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c17384fc7e8aa6cffbe0d9175e443453fd468637f3be6092d39d0bcd8a78d017.jpg

    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      My mulberry tree is already putting leaves out… about 1 month early it seems.

      Strangely my fruit trees are not yet blooming, probably in another week or two, which is about normal, maybe a little early.

      • CHeden

        Early buds on my Mulberry, too. Leaves didn’t finish dropping till after Christmas….usually it’s around Thanksgiving.

    • matthew

      Buds are starting to swell on some of my aspen trees…about 2 months earlier than I normally expect.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Cherry blossoms galore down here, everything is budding and the maple trees started putting out new leaves at the beginning of the month. Yikes.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Yeah that sunset just ruins the photo!

      • CHeden

        No, that’s this morning’s Sunrise. Taken around 0630, and looking towards Lassen.

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          stunning

        • I like it. Darn sunrise happens every morning. I rarely use my DSLR but could bracket 5 exposures or use a spot meter

  • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

    34f out this morning in orinda. I was not expecting that. Tomato and basil seedlings should be ok…sheltered area…

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    HRRR telling the story this morning… Path of the clip of energy behind the main low diving south out of the PNW with everything wrapping together tomorrow to reform a new cut-off low over Central California. When the original cut-off low inbound for the North Coast tries to inside slide, the cloud cover associated with it will be similar to a general inside slider’s path bringing high clouds and energy mostly east of the Sierra’s… This will cause for multiple people calling this system a bust. What people aren’t understanding is that the rain won’t start falling until the low is fully cut-off and offshore where it will be in a better position to entrain subtropical moisture & .70” PWATS. So in general this will look like a storm that appears out of thin air for areas south of Pt. Conception. Once the entrainment of moisture begins to work it’s way around the low, we’ll begin to see cloud cover increase and precipitation will begin to fall along the coast… Forecasted totals for this event by the southern NWS offices seem sufficient with the way the system will play out, but these types of complex cut-off lows have had s history of over-performing in the mountains & further south… So we’ll just have to wait and see. Don’t bank on anything above the forecasted totals though. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dd34f10590dd6d6d24ad3c95d9a6a91a1d0ea1a9d948dd7c10207b18e6d14182.gif

    • DrySprings6250

      2” liquid or BUST – give it to me baby!

    • Al (Victorville)

      Im starting to notice a trend in the GFS that the shortwave that picks up the COL is trending farther west, making the COL to exit faster, mabye even phasing together once it gets into Central California.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Mesoscale models are pretty consistent with the phasing, so once again I haven’t put much thought into the GFS’s short-term fluctuations.

    • CHeden

      ATTM, up here in Cottonwood, we have an increasing cloud deck above 10,000′ and surface temps in the high 30’s. Note that much of the cloudiness is occuring in-situ, indicating the approaching disturbance aloft (currently 29.92″ and dropping).
      Some virga starting to show now as I look north towards Shasta, but the air below 10K’ is just bone dry, and continues to confirm how little mixing of the lower layers is going on. Too bad we couldn’t get some higher PWATS up here. The setup is ideal for wet-bulb cooling and coupled with downsloping from the Trinities, we could have had a brief snowfall.
      Anyway, what I’m seeing up here now is pretty much confirming what’s going to happen in the near term with this initial low…which is to stay aloft with little moisture to work with….so, as you’ve been saying, we’ll have to wait for additional energy phasing in from the NE and maybe some extra juice from the SW to help stir things up and bring some precip to the surface.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        It would have been nice if you had better moisture to work with up there, this would be a pretty potent low, but the timing makes all the difference… I’d say we’ll really know what we’re going to see down here by tonight’s HiRes initializations.

    • Models show it shooting east before it has enough time to entrain enough moisture and bringing most of the action to Arizona.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Don’t leave that scenario out. An ejection timing is still important, but the NWS was pretty clear this system will yield highly variable precipitation forecasts for SoCal, and it’s still the same story this morning. I’ve said this one looked like it was going for San Diego and the Southwest since it started rolling into the models… Everything between Pt. Conception and Orange County is the most questionable area for .25”-.50” and above and that’s talking about isolated showers. If more widespread precipitation manifests on the eastern side of the low once in position offshore, then we’ll need to think about higher totals, more impacts. Right now the forecast is pretty much on track down here.

    • There will not be significant precip anywhere in CA from this system, with the possible exception of the eastern deserts.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        I explain this below.

        • From NWS Oxnard-

          “Enough confidence still exists to keep slight chance to
          chance PoPs over the region”

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            Correct.

        • Cap’n

          You have a tough job ahead of you the next 72 hours or so, pacifying an angry mob desperate for rain with their fingers twitching above the B button on the keyboard. Great analysis above. Wind has picked up here and would you know it, second day in a row with chilly seasonal type temps. Now if we could just turn the forecast dusting into a three footer…

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            Thanks Cap’n, I’m not trying to combat anyone’s view of the event ahead, just trying to explain the process and what could happen. Hoping the pattern behind this gets active for you folks, I’m always rooting for additional snowfall in the Sierra’s. Even at Al’s house.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
  • Fairweathercactus

    It just feels that whatever comes this way will be to little to late. Also not sold on that cold coming down the coast. Just like every other cold snap this season watch it get pushed East on tomorrows model runs.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      FWIW, the SSW event is now ongoing as of last night and the models aren’t seeing the full scope of it’s effects once it filters down into the tropopause… Once realized we’ll know what we’re dealing with… At the moment we have a good idea what the outcome could hold.

      • Fairweathercactus

        It will not matter how much cold air comes down this way. Days are already getting longer and sun angle is higher so it will not be a true cold event.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Nobody was saying that, but it will certainly put us in a favorable position for a more active pattern and “colder.”

    • weathergeek100

      I’m coming into conclusion that the season is basically over. Some ‘cool’ air is nice, sure. But the rain/snow? Forget it. I’m predicting worst case scenario (nothing until November) yet not leaving out the possibility of a few periods of light showers sometime in March. But basically, I’m over it.

      My prediction for the driest winter ever recorded in SoCal is becoming more likely. I know that there’s a chance that SoCal could get decent rain the next few days and that record may not fall (I hope it doesn’t fall), but as we can see, the models are not bringing a subtropical tap anymore. That means scattered showers, which means many places will pick up 0.00.

      My prediction for the Bay Area is harder. I want to say 10” for the season but it could very well be the current 7”-8” we have right now. Tough to say. Where’s the magic 8 ball???

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        That is a painful prediction that I fear

      • jstrahl

        Berkeley is at 8.59 inches, we’ll be lucky to get to 10.

      • Chris

        8.07” for Morgan Hill.
        Driest season was 2013-14 with 8.63”
        Last year to date was 40”!!!

  • Taz & Storm Master

    could model be hiting at a cold spell has we head in too the last week of FEB in too mar?

  • Rusty Rails

    https://twitter.com/hydromet_man/status/962736040099291136

    Update on Donner Summit snow drought: 2018 now the lowest SWE in SNOTEL record for Feb 11.

    Current SWE percentile: 0
    Current P percentile: 26th

    Deep dry type #snowdrought now in place. Quickly falling below 2015 for both SWE and P.

    • Cap’n

      Just drove down from Serene Lakes, it’s creepy how thin it is up there. Fingers crossed for a late season miracle.

    • Bombillo1

      I have been haunted by a post, with link made on these boards, about 4 days ago. I would like to give the appropriate credit, maybe Mobiol, Tuolome, please forgive me.

      The article specifically spoke about a group of atmospheric scientists that had contracted a great deal of computational time on the Lawrence-Livermore super computers, addressing what will be the climatic affect of the dissapearence of the Arctic Sea Ice. Working through the physics of it all, after 6 months and without much emotional fanfare, concluded that our ridging is a direct artifact and the deflection of storms that we know so well will increasingly become a permanent feature.

      Some on these boards are fascinated by weather and are here for the intellectual exercise. Others are particularly engaged because they are intimately connected, by work/recreation/emotional attachment to our natural world. I am part of this latter group. This reality is disturbing me more than I can express. Forgive me for this selfish post.

      • It’s making me want to move to Japan/where the new cold regime sets up. The reality is the death of the best of the West. A GDP the size of Italy withering away in a vast exodus, millions of critters and forests ravaged by fire and heat. Not a pretty picture, then again watching a lobster slowly die in a pot of boiling water isn’t pretty either.

        • DrySprings6250

          My roommates in college worked at red lobster. One night at closing they…liberated…the lobsters in the tank and let them go in the ocean….they never went back to work.

          LOL

          • Tuolumne

            Off topic, but it’s not a good idea to let creatures loose into places they may not be native to. That often leads to severe invasive species problems.

          • Bombillo1

            I read a paper many years ago about an attempt to transplant East Coast Rock Lobster to the Pacific NW. The 2 habitats were completely incompatible in the end. One thing is the Gulf Stream can heat Maine water to the high 70s. Aquatic habitat turned out to be worlds apart.

          • Tuolumne

            Coastal Maine waters are more like the 40s to 50s F. The Gulf Stream is well offshore and the coast gets cold water from farther north.

        • Tuolumne

          IMO the globally linked coastal cities that are focused on trade and high tech would survive on desalinization, albeit at great cost. However, agriculture would largely die out along with most towns and cities in ag regions.

      • Tuolumne

        Bombillo1, that wasn’t me, but thanks for sharing that as I somehow missed the original post.

        Very discouraging if it turns out to be the new normal.

        • Yolo Hoe

          I think it was 805

      • jstrahl

        My thinking, FWIW, is that things will become way too chaotic for any one pattern to stick for very long. Extremes getting more extreme, any “normal” getting rate.

        • matthew

          Upvote. I have said the same – that I believe that we are in a transitional era. The question is whether this transition state lasts years, decades, or centuries.

          • jstrahl

            And do we even get to hang around to see where it goes? Humans may not survive this.

          • matthew

            Humanity will survive anything short of a complete anoxic event. However the transition to whatever is next is going to be a bitch for a couple of generations. Climate driven mass migrations would not be a pretty thing.

          • Tuolumne

            Concur.

            There is a huge difference between civilizational collapse (which has happened any number of times due to climate changes) and extinction.

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          Maybe will become tornado alley

      • Andrew (Berkeley)

        Can’t claim credit for the original post, but some quick googling came up with:

        https://www.llnl.gov/news/arctic-sea-ice-loss-could-dry-out-california

        • Bombillo1

          That’s it Andrew. An easy read for those who are interested. We are check-mated.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        Yeah, no way it becomes a permanent feature

    • weathergeek100

      Ahh yes. Flashbacks to 2015 when you thought it couldn’t get any worse.

      Oh wait, it did.

  • Fairweathercactus
  • View from the crest at the abandoned manmade snowplay park Alpine Meadows Comcast Adventure, looking towards Lake Tahoe, December 12th, year 2057. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/383505c5ddc58ef98f2a0249b4fb5ff02a167da35ea920ab18185cbd4300ade3.jpg

    • Tuolumne

      You Dante say?

    • weathergeek100

      ‘Son, when I was your age, we used to actually be able to ski in California. Our water also came from the mountains. In fact, the mountains were full of beautiful pine trees, not the suguaro cacti we have today.’

      ‘Really dad? Really? Wow!’

      ‘Yes, and we had waterfalls, too. One was the tallest in North America, called Yosemite falls. Those were the days, son. Those were the days’.

      ‘Wow! Can we go to the ski museum in Tahoe and see what people actually did back then?’

      ‘Of course, son. Of course. But bundle up, it could be as cold as 60 degrees today! They say there’s a frost advisory in Tahoe tonight and we have to cover our tropical plants. It’s January after all’.

  • weathergeek100

    Lots of talk about this snow drought. When we thought it couldn’t get any worse, it did. It did get worse. So now remember, we’re talking about a record dry year on Donner Summit and throughout the Sierras. Don’t think it can’t get worse in the future. The Sierras will probably have an even drier year in the near future. This is nothing.

    In 50 years, we’ll be dreaming of years like this. I can see it already- ‘remember back in the winter of 2017/18 when things were actually average? There was snow all the way up until mid February!!! This year (let’s call it 2070), we got one storm in December and all the snow melted by Jan 1st and there was no more snow the rest of the season. Ahh man I missed years like 2017/18 when Tahoe actually got 2” of snow at lake level.’

    Folks, this is the reality of our situation.

    • Cap’n

      That’s the way I see it to. The past two winters, 15-16 and 16-17 will be things of folklore in Tahoe/Truckee in 50 years in my opinion. Last year the Central Sierra snowlab at 6,900 feet received 47.6 (571.2″) and the year before a respectable number right around 360″ I think (numbers aren’t) in front of me for that winter. I shudder to think what the snow totals will be at that elevation down the road. They should start construction on the next snow lab at the top of Lassen.

      The whole damn thing is depressing.

    • Drought Monitor

      There will always be wet years and dry years. No doubt this is the worst 6 year rain period that we have had in recent history but we have to consider just last year a lot of CA had its wettest year on record.

      • Cap’n

        100% agree, I think a lot of us are very concerned about the warmth and the ever rising snowline.

        • Drought Monitor

          Yes I think the truth lies somewhere right in the middle of “we are doomed” and “everything is normal” the warming trend is a reality

      • alanstorm

        Boy, that sure makes me feel better! Thanks.

        Big drought in 1864 after the legendary 1862 flood.

        Difference is, 37 million souls are calling this home

        • Drought Monitor

          https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9c6076e287e88534c7004904aaa1668ff38f0d67b949ca0207563580dfbfd2fc.png

          Lol looking past the sarcasm ill post this graph of recent history. Its obvious we are in the worst drought of the century. 60’s and 70’s really didn’t have any big rain years and had quite a few dismal ones. As Daniel always says our winter can be made or broken by a few storms. Our warming trend and changing climate is showing us extremes that we have not seen in history, wet ones and dry ones.

  • alanstorm
    • weathergeek100

      Amazing. They were thinking 1-2” this time yesterday.

      • Prepare for more whiplash. Going to flail for days…

  • alanstorm

    Definitely a change here in Mendocino Co with a weak cold front moving south.
    Rainless clouds & north winds.
    Not a drop yet….
    https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/pacsouthwest_loop.php
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ceebcec153d731ca70b142204a45a3931250e12a4fbf25104a7ec9b0166f7e69.jpg

  • jstrahl

    Glad i didn’t get too excited about what models were showing. I think the ridge is here to stay till the Baja ridge pushes it off, or maybe just joins it to form one mega ridge from Mexico to the Arctic.

  • White Lightning

    Anybody have a map of the paths tornadoes have taken in California for the past like 30 years?

  • Sublimesl

    Hard to believe, but this is one year ago

    http://fox40.com/2017/02/09/hatchery-emptied-as-oroville-dam-spillway-crumbles/

    Who could forget 100,000 people fleeing at the last moment, collecting their belongings, in fear of their lives….

    • alanstorm

      & the gridlocked evacuation route that put them directly in the path of the potential flood

  • CHeden

    Upper level trough has just passed through, and as expected nothing but some high clouds. As LP continues to push down the coast from off SW Oregon, things are getting a bit bumpy offshore. Not sure how much of the main dynamics will pivot inland…maybe a chance of showers later this afternoon? Would be nice to finally get a cloud or two to test out the new camera! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4704c4bb08d777345ec6dc7f59d5848a892979921f3cd0fa48ea8fb67363b816.jpg

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    12z Euro showing sea level snow in the 8-10 day range along with a half an inch of cold rain in the Bay Area. This GEM and Euro have been cold for a long time in the long range so it’s just a random pop up. All disclaimers apply https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/11a0a744316d2bdb439d05eb194a3a399f1ffe72ec9f01e450430e641edb0b7d.png
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/318a98ea1ccee0ae888b839c8733d8f845069c9c8d0bca52ef7d0f3dce001a94.png

    • janky

      So want it to happen. Need GFS to get on board too. 8-10 days isn’t that far away.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        I’m hoping it will since GEM and Euro have been very consistent in the one range for this.
        Edit: It is not far away from having the same solution as the Euro and Gem, but it doesn’t want to move the cold air south

        • Look above.

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            At what

          • Deleted my reply because of a graphic embed issue, coming.

    • Freddy66

      With that big high finally over the east you would think we’d have a chance

      • jstrahl

        You said it yourself. Trough over the east coast means ridge over California. Ridge over the east coast means a ridge over California. MJO phase 1? Phase 2? … Ridge over California. El Nino? Ridge. L:a Nina? Ridge.

        • Tuolumne

          Asteroid impact? Ridge over CA.
          Sun goes out? Ridge over CA.
          Earth eaten by black hole? Ridge over CA.

    • weathergeek100

      To be fair, this is not the most fantasizing part of fantasy land. It’s still a fantasy, but to 8-10 days out is way better than the 14 days we dream about.

      But still, let’s talk 3 days prior to the event…..if it’ still forecasted to take place by then.

    • Atmospheric_River

      Looks like some vary low snow levels with this event!

    • That wouldn’t be a sea level snow pattern. But I’m not sure how one would infer that from a 500mb gph anomaly pattern in any case…correspondingly very cold near surace temps are exceedingly fats to come by in this part of the world…

      • molbiol

        Agreed. A quick glimpse of 850mb temps for that period shows a range of 0 to minus 5 for NorCal. Given higher sun angle and very antecedent warm conditions, it would be very difficult for snow to fall that low. 1000-850mb thickness values would have to be well below 1300 DM. A 3000-4000 foot snow level seems more appropriate.

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          temps on the Euro are shown between 30-35 though. How much does the upper atmosphere have an affect on snow falling at sea level

          • molbiol

            Surface temps on the 12Z Euro are in the low to mid 40s for the lower elevations of NorCal for that period.

  • Yolo Hoe

    Winds from the SSE in far southwest Davis — barometer 29.78 and falling rapidly — rainless clouds overhead, but at least we’re on the edge of something resembling Winter

  • Oh jeez not this again…oh wait, they were funded by the State of California and maybe did their homework this time? Hmmm…judging by their abstract they may have scraped out some supporting numbers, alarming takeaway – “Lubin said that an upcoming event would not stop the current trend of planetary warming but might slow it somewhat. The cooling effect of a grand minimum is only a fraction of the warming effect caused by the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.” So, in other words, this could result in no change at all I.E. Carbon runaway already begun.
    Hard Mode:
    “We have identified a sample of 33 Sun-like stars observed by the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) with the short-wavelength spectrographs that have ground-based detections of chromospheric Ca ii H+K activity. Our objective is to determine if these observations can provide an estimate of the decrease in ultraviolet (UV) surface flux associated with a transition from a normal stellar cycle to a grand-minimum state. The activity detections, corrected to solar metallicity, span the range $-5.16lt mathrm{log}{R}_{{HK}}^{{prime} }lt -4.26$, and eight stars have log ${R}_{{HK}}^{{prime} }lt -5.00$. The IUE-observed flux spectra are integrated over the wavelength range 1250–1910 Å, transformed to surface fluxes, and then normalized to solar B ? V. These normalized surface fluxes show a strong linear relationship with activity ${R}_{{HK}}^{{prime} }$ (R 2 = 0.857 after three outliers are omitted). From this linear regression we estimate a range in UV flux of 9.3% over solar cycle 22 and a reduction of 6.9% below solar cycle minimum under a grand minimum. The 95% confidence interval in this grand-minimum estimate is 5.5%–8.4%. An alternative estimate is provided by the IUE observations of ? Cet (HD 10700), a star having strong evidence of being in a grand-minimum state, and this star’s normalized surface flux is 23.0 ± 5.7% lower than solar cycle minimum.”

    Junior Scholastic Magazine Edition:
    https://www.morningticker.com/2018/02/scientists-shocked-by-massive-discovery-about-the-sun/

    • Freddy66

      I’m too stupid to understand this

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Whattttt, you don’t get – ?

        span the range $-5.16lt mathrm{log}{R}_{{HK}}^{{prime} }lt -4.26$, and eight stars have log ${R}_{{HK}}^{{prime} }lt -5.00$. The IUE-observed flux spectra are integrated over the wavelength range 1250–1910 Å

        So obvious…. not

  • @disqus_BSoQQ08R9b:disqus @disqus_ut0uCx9UZx:disqus GFS operational gets increasingly interesting as it stretches out into fantasyland:
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6b576570973f7350d8592d2125eb7f846de3d2f76f6354be34fe159729235831.gif

    • Freddy66

      Seems to be what the euro is showing

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        and GEM

    • jstrahl

      You still trust what models show you, past 24 hours? 🙂

    • AlTahoe

      Euro is showing an awesome cold storm in day 9 for us on the latest run. It would bring pretty good snow totals for the Sierra.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        would be some fantastic powder, but very light

        • ….on rocks. Lol. We never got our base laying AR potato blaster earlier, no mashed potatoes to fill in the landscape :/

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            Something’s gotta give

    • janky

      ?? ?? ?? ??

  • Interesting rapid drop in pressure over the last 90 minutes. From 29.90 to 29.75 with winds picking up here in Brentwood (East Bay), 64 degrees.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Cut off low is strengthening right above you

    • inclinejj

      29.68 Pacifica 2;00 52.9 degrees!

  • matthew

    46F out and a few snowflakes falling. At the current rate we should get a foot in about 137 years.

    • AlTahoe

      I am more interested to see how fast temps drop tonight. I was at 21F at 8 am and then it jumped to 54F by 11:00am with compressional heating. Supposed to only be in the 20’s tomorrow

      • matthew

        It actually feels like winter compared to the past couple weeks. Gray, windy, low-40’s. Almost forgot what it was like.

  • jstrahl

    Things got exciting for a few minutes, gusty winds and fast-moving dark clouds. Could have thought a winter storm was coming, then i remembered this is 2018.

    • Sublimesl

      Had a few drops here in Oakland Hills…at least it feels wintry.

  • weathergeek100

    Wow, as jstrahl mentioned below, it really feels like a storm is about to blow into the bay area right now. Heavy low clouds, a grey sky, and a stiff breeze.

    But I know it’s not going to rain. Not even the slightest chance is in the forecast. Such a depressing feeling when it looks like rain and the current conditions want to tease you like that.

    • Idaho Native

      and now its bright and sunny again 🙁

    • Dan the Weatherman

      As I was watching the Pebble Beach Pro Am this afternoon I could see the marine layer rapidly increasing over the area and was almost completely overcast by the time the tournament ended.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
  • @disqus_riN0OmAGxs:disqus: “If I didn’t know better I’d think we had a winter storm blowing in.” Perhaps the RGEM(Regional GEM – High resolution mesoscale GEM I think) DOESN’T know any better, but you might find a companion in your assessment…
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6b90747efeec607a67b62c262a4b2da60e39e05ee7286637ea844847ce034aec.gif

    • weathergeek100

      Yeah, that’s more than just a few flakes for Tahoe. Maybe they’ll get a few inches after all?

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        That’s what the GFS shows, even shows near a half a foot on the Southern Crest of Lake Tahoe

        • Cap’n

          Lol

    • Cap’n

      I think Al has the potential to be the winner with this one and perhaps score a lake effect flurry. When I say winner I mean he might get 1.3 – 1.7″ of snow. Maybe this is what we call a storm this year. I just meant that the wind and clouds and cold felt like winter, though I did just see flake number 28 and 29 shoot by the window so there is always hope.

  • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

    High Desert from Saturday evening (King of the Hammers race) in Johnson Valley https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5fb2da43c3b062cf9ff8e154317f1218dacf54c6c20b80ee8bce25c799617d9c.jpg

    • David

      Nice. I know a few people who participated in that.

  • Scap

    About a couple hundred mini snow flakes just fell in south lake. The area closer to camp Richardson.

    • AlTahoe

      I am currently at mcduffs and saw about 50 snow flakes

      • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

        Keep a tally and let us know.

      • Cap’n

        I’m at 24 flakes here… oh wait 25 and 26 just blew by the window. Temps are dropping though, and with the wind it actually feels like winter. I actually went out and covered the wood which probably jinxed any chance of accumulation.

        • It’s a sad (H2O) tapless little pioneer, hopefully the first scout before many, like an Argentine ant invasion that doesn’t suck for once.

          • Cap’n

            It could be the effect of seeing a few flakes and a decent 18Z run but I am feeling a little better about the weeks to come, though I’m thoroughly prepared for the ole disappearing act. At this point even the prospect of colder temps and tapped out inside sliders is better than nothing. I wore a Tshirt in early February last week, too early for that crap.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    i think we may be heading in too a colder and may be wetter? pattern has we head in too mid too late FEB and in too early MAR

    time will tell

  • Windy, dusty, even blowing sand, cool temps. Lancaster?

    • molbiol

      Sunny calm and mild here. Sitting outside type weather

    • Michael_T (West Oakland)

      Not a fan of dry windy dust

  • Shane Ritter

    Cold, windy, a few flakes flying here in North Reno

  • Just got windy and cold here last 10 minutes.

  • SolarWinds56

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/69b190ee3d84bd7831a5f4a00c280e5407bdf38f12c5eb836b63265693fce67c.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0388656d25f1c9d4a6957b3220a1a017e4460b56955d4be5db1baaaa3b3a58d7.jpg Been out of town in AZ for the last couple weeks taking care of a family member. Back home in San Diego for a couple days enjoying the ocean. Would surf, but there’s hardly any waves. 70% chance of rain down here tonight. We’ll see.

  • Peavine Violet

    Been windy, cool and gray here in Washoe Valley. Winds dropped a bit earlier but are now picking back up again. Looks like precip incoming over Mt Rose….

  • Fairweathercactus

    It is not raining today and the models do not look great. I will tell you this if we had more winter days like this the dry weather would not be to bad. This is fantastic weather. This reminds me of a late winter or early spring day where you day a day before and the day after you have a few clouds rolling around the area with some breeze/windy weather that dies after sunset. Then you might get an isolated shower that rolls off the mountains.

    I am enjoying every moment of it cause I know that summer heat is rolling right around the corner.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Agree, even though w/ low 70’s if felt like winter today and tomorrow will be a reminder that we do live in the mid latitudes sometimes

    • Dan the Weatherman

      It wasn’t supposed to rain today anyway, but the predicted Santa Ana event for this morning never materialized at least for my area here in Orange. Hopefully the chances of rain this week aren’t a no-show like the Santa Ana was this morning.

      • Fairweathercactus

        We need the rain but we can do without the winds. I set a bucket up at the start of winter to collect rain water for the cactus during the summer and fall. Looks like that is not going to work out.

        • Sad Cactus

          Yup, we never really had a winter. If things don’t change soon and fast, this will be one of the worst seasons ever, worse than 2006-2007 and that is saying something!

          • Fairweathercactus

            That is quite true my sad friend.

  • Rusty Rails
  • alanstorm
    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      Gawd I love that part of ca! A trace it is. Better than zero I guess.

    • Sokafriend

      I keep wondering why .08 mm forecast over the course of 24 hours is called “rain.”

    • weathergeek100

      Wooooo you almost got measurable precip. Almost!

  • Cap’n

    “We’ve got accumulation, We’ve got accumulation!” I just ran down the street yelling in my long johns and slippers like a pathetic version of Paul Revere. Actually a bunch of Dippn’ Dots (graupel) but it’s something…

    • weathergeek100

      The British…uhum….the snow storm is coming the snowstorm is coming!!

    • matthew

      32F and starting to accumulate here. Real, floating flakes even.

      • Cap’n

        Mine was a premature exclamation, finished here with just a layer of residue on the porch.

        • matthew

          I am using the word “accumulating” loosely. Like, the top of the deck rail is almost white. Almost.

    • AlTahoe

      1 hour of Dippn’ Dots so far with a temp of 35F. Just enough to cover the ground.

      • Michael_T (West Oakland)

        Beautiful pic

  • cthenn

    So what was that today? Got cool, cloudy, blustery for like 6 hours or so then completely cleared up. Not a hint of rain, odd.

    • Winter

      • GR

        Ah, maybe things are looking up.

    • Dry weak cold front. An atmospheric Roomba that is a prelude to future fury philandering with hydrophobic fire flambé’d soils and silage.
      Going to get interesting finally…

    • Fairweathercactus

      If you are in No Cal that is kind of a common weather pattern in April or early May. You have a little shot of cold air hitting the boarder of CA/NV ridding down towards the Great Basin. It brings at best some clouds and a flurry in a few spots.

    • weathergeek100

      Well, rain wasn’t exactly forecasted unless you’re up in Eureka…

      • kris

        Nws says we got about .16 of an inch of rain. It got fairly wet for a few hours and then fizzled out quickly. Clouds are now clearing out quickly too, with a cool north wind picking up.

        • weathergeek100

          I have a camping trip planned in Humboldt redwoods park on Memorial Day weekend. I swear if I see dying ferns and struggling vegetation I’m not going to be happy. That eel river better be flowing. I’ve never been to that region before and I’m quite excited but ughh I can’t believe even YOU GUYS are struggling to get moisture!

          • kris

            If we are still under 20 inches for the water year (normal around 25 to 27 for this point in water year) so if we don’t make up much the rest of this month and March and April river flows may not be all that great. Memorial day is early enough though, that hopefully we still got some good river action.

    • jstrahl

      That’s called a dry low. 🙂

  • DrySprings6250

    Houston, we have fog! No seriously, there’s fog!

    • Al (Victorville)

      I heard your going to get that SYP fog again as the NWS said that the marine (or moist) layer will rapidly deepen (to below 750MB) to the point that light rain may fall anywhere W of the mountains. Heres the NAM 3km sounding I was looking at for sunrise tomorrow morning for the Inland Empire… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/13a6cb8a50cc2968443883bb304022b95e7fad180c400ff970032db7233de7bc.jpg
      As im typing this, there is scattered low clouds and nimbostratus popping up in the cajon pass and San Gabriels right now along with increasing high clouds and a windshift to moist S-SW winds here after getting the downsloping NW winds from the Tehachapi’s this afternoon.

  • Yolo Hoe

    Winds from WSW in far southwest Davis — barometer 29.73 and slowly falling — quite a storm (sarcasm)

  • Boiio

    Impressive temperature drop as the cold front blew threw this afternoon in Marin. Up on the top of mount tam temperatures dropped 12 degrees in one hour! Wind gusts pushing 50mph too. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5931234006e49abb809864a13e535988676ea551aad0a9b315319a6c584d8c19.jpg

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • CHeden

      Here’s what’s feeding into the developing low ATTM:
      No trailing surface winds (as yet) up here in Cottonwood after frontal passage about 6 hrs ago. Did see some scud in the end drifting in from the north. Rapid temp drop in cold dry air…now 46F. D.P.’s hangin in low 30’s high 20’s and dropping.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Yea, I’m waiting for reports on when that next clip of energy dives south tonight. Good to see those temps falling, but such little moisture to work with. Wouldn’t call that CoL that moved into the north coast a traditional slider, but it wanted to be one.

    • Jim (Watsonville)

      What are the red areas on the wv pic ?

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Dry air.

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    Pulled into the driveway, and one snowflake fell in front of the headlights. So far, that’s it 🙂

    • The snow line is right at Big Trees, I see. Should be a fun night and morning tomorrow.

    • Sfedblog

      Come to San Francisco.

  • CHeden

    Spidey senses keep tingling for something interesting sometime around the 23rd to 24th.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      Today felt wintery. No rain but it was blustery with clouds hanging over the hills and 50f with a cold wind at 2pm, elev 600ft. Then it cleared and was sunny but chilly and finally the humidity picked back up to around 70. Now there are some low clouds out. Definitely some nicer cool air coming in with moisture even if no rain, vs the awful east winds and dry air. There was some dust blowing here. Awful.

    • Michael_T (West Oakland)

      This isn’t a climate change deniers forum so don’t worry about posting things like this 🙂

  • Fairweathercactus

    What is interesting is the models are showing a thunderstorm around mid Orange County. Even the local KTLA model showed a big red cell hitting. Something interesting.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Wait. The models are showing ONE thunderstorm over Orange county? When is this? Between tonight and 2/12/19?

      • Fairweathercactus

        Yeah it was at the end of the future cast. I think would have been tomorrow night. One red cell just south of Santa Ana. It dies quickly after hitting the coast. Not the best resolution but it has been right before. I recall it showed the thunderstorms offshore well in September.

  • DrySprings6250

    Forecast for the week is a good bit colder (30s/20s vs 40s/30s, but lower precip comes along with it….the colder days will come as a shock to many!

  • Quick question to any who might be more knowledgeable than me. Does this system still carry the thunderstorm dynamics expected before, or is that out of the window?

    • molbiol

      T-storm dynamics are no longer present…this is looking like a deep marine layer/ light shower setup

  • March Miracle (SMX)

    If I can’t get the rain, I might as well get the “cold”. I’ll take a rare below average day. I don’t need the rain, anyway. It’s overrated. I’m done hoping for rain until Jerry leaves the Capitol.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    For those of us who cling to weather happenings, I gotta tell you, this winter has been nothing short of exasperating, depressing and curse word inducing. Our move further north to the Sac. area from the Bay Area (rain shadow city, San Jose) had me anticipating lots more rain and a chance to go play in the Tahoe snow. Nope. Plus, I’ve become a pathetic models clinger. It’s like being abused by a heartless mistress, but you can’t stop meeting up with her, in the hopes that maybe this time she’ll shower you with some love. This winter she’s shown anything but a little love.

    Ok, I’ll stop now. There, rant over. I kinda feel better. A little….

    • Yolo Hoe

      It’s not over — March in Tahoe is often a great month as storms shake loose with the seasonal instability and the Bay Area folks have packed up because ‘Winter is over’ — great time to get in some laps

    • Nicole Black

      It’s wonderful when the Bay Area people leave Tahoe. The local drivers drive slowly and with a bit more consideration. It’s magical and everybody is much safer. Stay in the Bay!

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Are you that mistress I was off handedly referring to? :^|

      • cthenn

        I’ll bet the majority of people who work in tourist related industries aren’t singing the same time. Glad you’re enjoying the driving tho!

    • Fairweathercactus

      Friend moved to Texas. After one year the part of Texas he lives in has had no rain for past 110 days. An all time record. Use to live in So Cal. He thinks he is truly cursed.

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Good lordy. If he moved to experience some rain, did he do any research about Texas? Some parts get lots, others, like us, not so much. Good thing he didn’t move to Houston just before hurricane Harvey!

      • Chris

        The drought is definitely worse in AZ and NM

      • Dan the Weatherman

        He must have brought the dry weather with him!

        Seriously, though, if we ever get an active storm track into CA, it will lead to rain in other parts of the country further east that are also suffering from drought conditions. That part of TX is dry for the same reason we are.

  • Fairweathercactus

    The GFS 0z shows even less moisture with the event and it also show a little pop up ridge. Just like someone at the party who never got an invite and also killed the party. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/14d72997ce27e655de81ddcfc5c46f16f6134b4ce55404e4bfd5138faa6d0388.gif

    • Michael_T (West Oakland)

      Permission to repost?

      • Fairweathercactus

        Sure