Record Southern California dry streak to end abruptly with strong storm; serious flood risk near Thomas Fire

Filed in Uncategorized by on January 7, 2018 9,187 Comments

Record SoCal dry streak February 2017 – January 2018

March-December was the record driest such period across most of Southern California, and drier than average across nearly all of California. (West Wide Drought Tracker)

As many Southern Californians are acutely aware, it has barely rained at all in this part of the state since February 2017. Despite the fact that winter 2016-2017 was fairly wet overall in SoCal (and near-record wet further to the north), the Pacific moisture stream shut off pretty abruptly by March–and the rains have yet to return to now-parched Southern California. In fact, the past ~300 days have been the driest such period on record across most of Southern California–including in Los Angeles proper, where the 0.69 inches of accumulated precipitation over that interval shattered the previous March-December record of 1.24 inches. Amidst this record dry spell, widespread (and late-season) record warm conditions have been reported–a combination that helped cause California’s most destructive fire season on record (the Thomas Fire, now California’s largest wildfire in modern history, is still not yet 100% contained as of January 7). As discussed in my last post, the cause of these record dry and warm conditions in SoCal has been the persistence (once again) of an unusually strong ridge of high pressure near the West Coast.

 

Strong storm to bring heavy rain, strong wind, thunderstorm risk to much of California

The incoming event will coincide with impressive storm-scale dynamics. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Well, I have some good news (for most folks) and some bad news (for anyone living near the numerous recent wildfire burn scars in the state): rain will finally be returning, in fairly dramatic fashion, over the next 24 hours to the entire state. An impressively strong storm system is currently taking shape off the California coast, fueled by a burst of jet stream energy that has finally broken through the persistent West Coast ridge. There had been some uncertainty regarding whether the jet energy would “phase” optimally with a low pressure system, but models have come into unanimous agreement that everything is indeed coming together for a major storm across all of central and southern California over the next 48 hours.

The developing storm will share several characteristics of historical systems that have tended to bring significant impacts to all areas, not just the orographically-favored coastal mountains that sometimes “steal” the lion’s share of winter precipitation at the expense of downwind rain-shadowed valleys.

A strong, well-positioned jet streak will generate favorable conditions for intense rain rates and possibly thunderstorms across SoCal. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

The first: this system is developing/strengthening close to the coast, with a sub-1000mb surface low due west of San Francisco by Monday morning. Additionally, this surface low will be associated with a fairly strong, cyclonically-curved jet streak over SoCal–favoring strong upward vertical motion ahead of/along the cold front. A modest atmospheric river will be associated with this storm system, although it’s actually the storm-scale dynamics that are more impressive than the moisture tap in this instance. Finally, there will be relatively cold air aloft behind the front–creating a convectively unstable atmosphere that will likely be conducive to  high rain rates near the front and probably at least a few embedded thunderstorms. There’s even a slight chance of some strong-to-severe cells along the cold front, which could bring locally torrential rainfall in a few locations.

In addition to widespread significant/heavy rainfall, winds could become quite strong and gusty across some coastal areas, especially between San Francisco and Los Angeles. Winds may be strong enough to cause some damage in these areas, though this will probably not be an exceptional wind storm unless the surface low deepens considerably more than expected. Still, this will represent the first major windstorm in many coastal areas in at least a year.

Significant mountain snowfall can be expected with this storm, though as has been the trend in recent years snow levels will be relatively high during the bulk of precipitation. Thus, multiple feet of snow will likely fall above 7000-8000 feet but possibly only a few inches below these high elevation regions.

 

High risk of serious flash flooding, debris flows, and mudslides near Thomas Fire

While under normal circumstances this storm system would be a largely positive development–bringing much-needed water to parched Southern California–very recent severe wildfire activity will present a high risk of serious, perhaps life-threatening conditions in some places. The region of greatest concern is the region within and near the Thomas Fire burn scar in Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties. The region burned by this wildfire is enormous (around 275,000 acres, or 425 square miles) and extends across vast tracts of wilderness, agricultural lands, and even some urban areas on the margins of Santa Barbara, Ventura, Santa Paula, and Ojai. The confluence of very high burn intensity on the steep slopes above the Ojai Valley, plus a substantial human population in the town of Ojai itself, presents an especially high level of concern. But even areas miles away from the primary burn areas many see significant flood-related impacts from this intense storm event.

Why are the risks near wildfire burn scars so much higher than in other areas? In many cases, recent fires in California have burned very intensely and at extremely high temperatures due to record-dry vegetation and ambient weather conditions. In these patches of particularly high burn intensity, nearly all vegetation was consumed by fire–leaving steep slopes completely devoid of soil-anchoring vegetation, and even modifying the underlying soils in a manner that creates a largely impermeable, waxy layer. This means that rainfall has a very hard time soaking into the ground–and is instead forced to immediately flow downhill as nearly instantaneous runoff. When precipitation intensity exceeds a certain threshold (sometimes as low as 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour, which would normally be well within the capacity of local rivers and streams), rapid flash flooding can result when huge volumes of runoff enter stream channels.

Widespread heavy precipitation is expected across coastal California Mon-Tues. Locally 4-6+ inches is possible near Thomas Fire burn scar. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Flash flooding is not the only risk, however. Wildfires can also produce vast amounts of ash –which, given high enough rainfall intensity, can accumulate within drainage channels to form an incredibly heavy, debris-laden, wet cement-like slurry known as a debris flow. These flows behave like a hybrid mudslide/flash flood (not unlike a volcanic “lahar”)–and can be incredibly fast-moving and destructive (click here for a visual). More traditional mudslides and/or landslides are also possible, but it’s debris flows that arguably pose the most unique and substantial threat in the wake of wildfires.

Due to the particular trajectory of this storm, and the naturally steep topography of the Transverse Ranges, areas near/within the Thomas Fire burn scar will be at very high risk during the period of peak rainfall intensity late Monday night. But other recent wildfire burn regions in California will also be at elevated risk of flash flooding and debris flows during this event–particularly the Tubbs Fire scar in the North Bay. Most other parts of the state not affected by recent wildfires will fare just fine, outside of some localized urban flooding. But make no mistake: if you live near where the Thomas Fire has burned in recent weeks, this is a storm to take very seriously indeed.

 

Medium term outlook: substantial drying once again, but may become wet again soon

For Southern California, at least, the Monday-Tuesday storm will be quite strong but equally quick-hitting: the remainder of the next 10 days look quite dry. Things will dry out later this week in NorCal, too, though there may still be occasional light rain across the far north. Out beyond 10 days, there are hints that a more active pattern may re-emerge (especially across the northern part of the state, but perhaps further south as well). At the very least, it does appear that the multi-month streak of seemingly unbreakable Southern California high pressure is over, at least for a little while. Stay tuned!

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  • molbiol

    24 hours without an earthquake in somewhere in California according to USGS. I always get nervous when this happens even though there is no statistical reason to be concerned. Can’t help it..

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3f7efb1f26659b5cc152eabd07cbad17be6383e442b67fcab5ad6642a6d31dc1.png

  • Farmer47

    A little off topic but kind of annoying
    Why do I have to log in every time I refresh this page? Is there a way to update post without refreshing?

    • matthew

      For me it is only with Apple devices. My PC works fine.

      • Jim (Watsonville)

        Been happening a lot with my dell computer…

        • matthew

          Interesting. I use Chrome on my ancient HP laptop (latest Windows 10) and have no problems. My iPad/iPhone however are a nightmare. Seems to have started a couple months ago…maybe less.

      • jstrahl

        Not with MacBookPro.

    • Crank Tango

      It’s been like that for me on every site that uses Disqus.

    • Thunderstorm

      Make weatherwest.com a favorite site, then click on it, then just click on the (highlighted in blue) comments which is currently at 8191. Works for me all the time. If you post occasionally then you will have to log in. Believe the drought lord has to log in several times as he is very dried out and frail.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    i think winter is over no more storms tell next season

    what the hot summer start

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      English?

      • Nathan

        I say, old chum, I daresay the hibernal solstice seems to be ending, we shan’t seem to expect tempestuous precipitation until the autumnal equinox.

        Entreat to experience warm climes and fine spells henceforth, indeed!

    • Sad Cactus

      I think we get another storm for Socal, but probably not until later next month. Very depressing excerpt from NOAA Oxnard/Los Angeles Forecast discussion:

      “Looking beyond next weekend, the long wave
      pattern would suggest continued dry conditions occurring into at
      least the second week of February.

    • March Miracle (SMX)

      I’ll give it until “spring forward” time before I make it official.

    • Yolo Hoe

      Did you not see the 00Z? The time for model riding is approaching — saddle up Storm Master and earn your spurs

    • Jim (Watsonville)

      We are placing you on a time out…you need to rethink what you have said. I cant believe you are not riding the GFS, its the only horse you ride…so jump on and RIDE !!!

    • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

      If Storm Master has lost hope, then we are lost

    • Scap

      Reverse jinx. Solid move.

  • molbiol

    At 222 hours it almost looks like a summer monsoon pattern at 500mb….

  • Nathan
    • Andrew (Berkeley)

      A valentine’s day fantasy

      • jstrahl

        Valentine’s Day has had luck with storms, including the start of the 1986 prolonged storm sequence.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Just to bring this memory back to the fore, of the flooding event in mid-February, 1986, 2/11/86 ~ 2/20/86

    It can, happen again.

    General Introduction

    “Heavy Precipitation Event
    California and Nevada
    February 11 – 20, 1986

    At the time of the preparation of this report, just over 26 years have passed since a prolonged series of back-to-back Pacific storms whose origins were deeply rooted in the subtropics below Hawaii slammed into the west coast, taking aim at northern California in the middle of February 1986. A destructive combination of heavy precipitation and moderately-high snow levels lasting for nearly 10 days brought catastrophic flooding to much of northern California and also carried across the Sierra Nevada crest into western Nevada. By the time it was over, many precipitation gages over much of California and western Nevada measured storms totals over half of their annual normals. Just to highlight the tremendous amount of precipitation that occurred, the precipitation gage at Bucks Lake at an elevation of 5,750 feet in the northern Sierra Nevada received 55.72 inches of precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, during the 10-day period.”

    http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/storm_summaries/feb1986storms.php

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8655f423e22935b16cd02e6056756d0acfff1287b7d16feb475ef7ba7f2e7444.jpg

  • Fairweathercactus

    You can tell the season are changing. Plants are already blooming, days are getting longer, night time temps have been nasty warm, local fox station is showing I love Lucy on Sunday afternoon with infomercials (when football would be on since September), and talk of baseball again on sportscenter.

    Yup the warm season is quickly on its way and its going to suck.. I can already tell the fan is going to be running a lot in my room at this rate.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Something is stirring in a trend beyond the 7 day in the ensembles… 12Z tomorrow might be a bit interesting.

    • March Miracle (SMX)

      Or it might be another week of blocking ridges. The cactus is betting on it.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Which ones

    • jstrahl

      Doesn’t look like it any more, for whatever the long range models are worth.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        It’s nosing in each run. I’m not riding it yet.

  • Phil(ontario)

    12:45 am. 74*

  • March Miracle (SMX)

    I pretty much stand by my Futility February/Miracle March prediction. The spirit of 1991 is coming. I can feel it.

    • jstrahl

      FWIW, the rain started on 2/27/91, i remember vividly, my then-wife and i walked in steady rain to deliver a birthday card to a friend of ours.

  • inclinejj

    The wind is howling. Pacifica! Just woke me up.

  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

    I think all the talk of extreme cold this winter in the east is overblown . The data seems to agree.

    Article: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00496.1

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      The coldest weather seems to be in the Midwest. The east has a brief cold spell but warms right back up

  • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

    A toasty overnight low of 73 and very windy. Had a gust of 33 mph.

    • weathergeek100

      Oh my god.

      I can’t ever recall that warm of a Santa Ana this time of year growing up in SoCal. I recall those warm Santa Anas in November, but January? That is something else. Wow. Sad.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        It was in the low 70’s last night here in Orange as well with the wind. It does seem like I remember a warm Santa Ana similar to this sometime back in January 1996, but I don’t remember if it was quite this warm, though. There is something very anomalous about how this year is acting. There was a Santa Ana event here in Orange late last October in which high temperatures were about 100 or just a bit over, and the overnight low that night was in the upper 80’s! I have NEVER seen a low in the upper 80’s at any time of the year, even during the hottest September heat waves or the muggiest of August nights. I am starting to think that very hot weather in late October may be a sign of a dry winter coming. I will have to check my records on that one, though.

  • Fairweathercactus

    What if everyone in the west put a fan outside and pointed it south? Could that bring cooler air to the area?

    • Nookx-Weather

      Every morning if everyone throws their ice box full of ice cubes outside we could get this place a little colder

  • Freddy66

    So I see the long range is betting on some kind of undercutting of the ridge. We’ve seen this movie before.

  • Cap’n

    Reno discussion from this morning and extended temp outlook are a real drag. Looks like another camping trip for the coming weekend. Conditions were great this weekend on the mountain and my neighborhood looks very much like winter, but with temps the coming two weeks, the thins Sierra snow pack is going to take a beating.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/29c8dcdd82e73ed5022845bb4db4f409fb63424d6a45a5e8fc51f888b72b5aa1.png Let’s all keep our heads up, or bury them in the sand.

    • matthew

      Better hope that we get a major shift by the middle of February or we are likely to see the resorts start shutting down by the end of the month. This is right up there with the worst-of-the-worst years.

      • Cap’n

        The smaller ones might not make it to Vday.

    • Slight chance of rain next Saturday. 🙂

    • AlTahoe

      I was thinking that we would have to wait until the 19th for a pattern change. The newest GFS runs show a new mega ridge showing up at the end of the 14th. So Maybe March now?

      • AlTahoe

        NWS Reno is even jumping on the possible Feb shutout train. Incredible! Our wettest 3 months will give South Lake Tahoe less than 3″ of precip.

        “One thing to note in the models this morning is now the agreement
        even in the ensembles of the building ridge NOT phasing with the
        high latitude ridge near the Bering Sea in 5-7 days. This is an
        important development, and not a good one for snow lovers. The ridge
        is building in response to the strong MJO and thus is tied to it.
        The position of the strong MJO for the next 10 days strongly favors
        a ridge near the west coast and very warm conditions. In contrast, a
        phased ridge would have had its axis further west with cooler temps,
        although still dry. It also would have been more susceptible to
        undercutting beyond 10 days. The forecast pattern now is very stable
        with dry and warm conditions for at least the middle of February,
        and likely beyond. Maybe there is hope toward the end of February? X”

        • weathergeek100

          Unreal.

        • Not phasing I’m assuming means destructive interference with ENSO?

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          I am surprised they discuss that far out. NWS Sacramento won’t go into detail beyond a week.

          • AlTahoe

            They usually don’t which just goes to show you how stable and long lasting this pattern will be. Probably to give the ski resort operators a heads up that they might want to start farming snow now if they want to remain open.

        • Cap’n

          Yeah that’s why I posted the link. They never talk about things that far out, which means they’re pretty confident in it. Ugh. Camping season.

    • Kelley Rogers

      It appears we are doomed

    • weathergeek100

      Looks like I’ll be skiing in T-shirts next Saturday at Sugarbowl. T-shirts combined with that sound of juicy slush along my skiis under clear blue skies. Classic spring conditions.

      Only difference will be the super thin snowpack. Usually snowpack is great come spring.

      • Charlie B

        classic spring conditions…and the unmistakable sound and feel of skis over rocks….

  • Bob G (Gustine)
    • Pfirman

      It will help preserve ground moisture.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Felt like a summer night; slept w bedroom windows open to allow warm breeze to circulate in the stuffy house.
    Lo: 68F

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Warm night where it was windy. Here are 5AM conditions in Oceanside area [these stations are within 5 miles of each other]

      CAMP PENDLETON CLEAR 70 25 18 NE10G18 30.08
      OCEANSIDE AP CLEAR 46 32 58 E3 30.08S
      OCEANSIDE HBR N/A 69 29 22 NE9 30.10S

      • Dan the Weatherman

        It was warm here in Orange last night due to the Santa Ana winds. They weren’t nearly as strong as they were the night before.

    • Alice Paul (LA)

      I did the same last night. It was absolutely balmy. Today the high temp is expected to almost reach 90 degrees. Say what??

      I heard on the radio this AM that there was a small fire in the Santa Monica mountains. Given the fire disasters in 2017, apparently it really shook up resident and I can’t blame them. With the recent high temps and strong winds, we’re pretty screwed.

    • JOHN CURTIS

      I would have left the windows open, but I am tired of ash blowing into the house.

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        You have a point. I think the 1/8-9 storm helped

  • AlTahoe

    We are under an ice fog inversion again for the second day. At least it will keep our meager snow pack around for another day or two. We have about 2″ left on the ground. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0e608dd2717a9e910d3ab3ef795c692d68b3b2b46fcd81353e29679ae00c0200.jpg

    • Charlie B

      I had lunch at Garwoods yesterday and I could see the low clouds and fog down your way.

      • David

        Garwoods is one of my favorites when I visit Tahoe.

  • Yolo Hoe

    23F driving across Martis Valley at 08:00

  • inclinejj

    It was 56.4 this am at 7. 61.2 now. 56 would be a good high for the day today. It was warm and windy last night, Wind woke me up at 1:30 Pacifica.

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    the CFS has been very consistent with this forecast the last few runs. While Feb might get cold in some places, Feb looks to be drier than normal across most of the US https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0c879341370aea1b9cd509056548a2391a30e025d6ab030b33939b69d5743e16.gif

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      maybe the driest/ warm winter in history?

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        Mexico and Canada look pretty good

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          mid latitudes suck

        • Bombillo1

          Tijuana setting record high today. Then again that really isn’t Mexico…

    • redlands

      Only 82.4 in Redlands, Ca – at 237pm 1/29/2018 — would have to check, but nothing near record temps — round this time would be bout 88-90 for record temps

      • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

        It’s almost nicer in the IE right now than the coast…ouch!

        • redlands

          how hot did u get today

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
  • AlTahoe

    Howard updated. I guess I will check back in here and the models the last week of Feb. Have fun with the nice weather everybody 🙁

    Forecast Summery;

    I have covered in detail in my last post on why in my opinion, this
    winter is so dry compared to last year. Again in my opinion, it will
    most likely be one of the dryer winters on record. However, as we get
    “toward” March, some of the forces driving this dry winter will begin to
    break-down. So, there is a good possibility that precipitation will
    again move back into Northern and Central CA, much later in February and
    especially March and early April. It may even be a “Miracle March” this
    year!

    Expect Late Spring and Summer weather to arrive earlier this year followed by a warmer than normal Summer.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      February still has a chance for the latter half

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      I expect the first two to three weeks of February to be dry but anything beyond that who knows. I dont buy a hot summer yet. Way too early. He talks about La Nina sticking around into summer which runs counter to what others are saying

    • “Forecast Summery;”

      That’s ironic…

  • Thunderstorm

    Not possible to compare past droughts with the present. Currently longer and more intense heat waves with low humidity. Can have normal rainfall but if you increase the heat and lower the humidity then the meaning of normal becomes meaningless.

    • Bombillo1

      This was the epiphany I had while visiting Bogota about 2 months ago. Their annual rainfall is about 31 inches, but at 8600’ elevation (daytime highs about 61 degrees). Technically less rainfall than Redding but those temperatures would keep the ground moist and grass/vegetation a verdant green year round. It is the high temperatures and low humidity that are causing our desiccation as much as the lack of rainfall. Read somewhere that Redding has evaporative water loss is 72 inches a year, way more than their rainfall.

      • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

        that is intersting. I dont understand how you could evaporate out more than you take in rain though?

        • Bombillo1

          They re-charge from surrounding mts.

          • Pfirman

            I don’t understand what this means.
            That said, I could easily blame the north wind, which could dry out a waterfall

      • AlTahoe

        Lake Tahoe evaporates about 18-24″ of lake level every summer. The average rainfall on the lake is about 25″ a year.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      There wasn’t low humidity with the heat waves this last summer

  • molbiol
    • Bleh, this la Nina can’t leave fast enough.

    • That was then this is now. AAM may give us a break mid February like it did in March 1991. Overall pattern of this winter of AAM is somewhat similar. We just had an AAM deep dive in January but unlike other “deep dive” -AAM January Nina years of ‘yore: ‘Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore.’

      EDIT MJO needs to go into the COD, too.

      • Bombillo1

        2 Plu, you are a climate change skeptic no? Then we are still in Kansas. Curious to know your philosophy and accompanying rationale..

        • I’m not a climate change skeptic. A lot the modeling leads us on a linear path of destruction. If global oscillations especially SST patterns are all whacked then we’re kissing our arse goodbye in due time. I’m just not that smart either so I still questioning a lot of things.

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        WTF is an Anticyclonic Wave Break in the pacific? I googled it but the info i read was too many pages and too detailed.

      • I approve of your plan to attack the ridge with Anti Aircraft Missiles. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a0bd788512c6e406c6e5656bf82e49f5b67ff514b4c0100fcb49b0d99de93609.jpg there are some old stock RIM-66 motors and blast fragmentation warheads the Navy might be able to donate, unfortunately the tool we really need the Talos with the 4.7 kiloton W30 are no longer available, probably would land on your face anyways from 60 year old solid rocket fuel failures if you tried to launch a fleet of them to nuke The Ridge.

        • Maybe try dropping them into the throats of some big active volcanoes in Indonesia /New Guinea and wait a few years

        • Harpo (Chico)
          • I swear to *ALL* the gods that just a couple hours ago I went into my favorite nearest coffee shop for the first time in a while and not lying one bit there was a newer barista there with the nametag “Ridge”. She had the poise speed and composure of someone who had been working there since early December. I wish I was making this up. You know how they say ridges lead to pretty weather…

    • thlnk3r

      QBO index for this year was in the -12.00 circa and 91 was a Nino year. Tad different conditions (not saying March miracle is not possible though). The main contributors this season is the QBO and La Nina.

      • molbiol

        Hence the phrase apples to oranges. I highly doubt a repeat of March 1991 will occur but people keep mentioning it as if it will; Too much has changed over the past 27 years

      • Chris

        91-92 was an El Nino year. March of 1991 was not.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          I believe El Nino was trying to form again going into the fall of 1990, but it decreased to ENSO neutral for that winter. El Nino redeveloped at some point either in the late spring or summer of 1991, leading to the El Nino of 1991-92.

        • thlnk3r

          Thanks for the correction!

  • RandomTreeInSB

    Followed nathan’s advice yesterday and took a good jog this morning. Perfect weather for it, albeit a little warm. I suggest my fellow model riders to do the same thing, it burns off life stress and and allows you to forget the weather for a little while.

    • molbiol

      I don’t “jog”: I RUN. 7 miles yesterday, will do 8 miles today and tomorrow and push it so long as it stays warm and nice. Need to loose about 10lbs and yes- I’m under a lot of stress too

      • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

        wow i am impressed you can run that much and be overwieght? No offense meant what so ever, its just impressive. Aslo if you run so much I am surprised you would even be over weight

        • Fairweathercactus

          When i was at 280 pounds I could still do 8 miles. Very slow 8 miles. I got down to 220 pounds. I need to get back on it. Getting rather lazy past year. putting on that weight again

        • molbiol

          Too much fast food plus too much stress= weight gain; even with exercise

          • Those are connected. Just say too much Trump administration, then the stress and eating are symbiotic ha

          • molbiol

            Politics have become so crazy that I have to completely shut it ALL out

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      Lol. I cant jog anymore. I think i strained by groin around thanksgiving lifting weights and it is finally almost better. I think i need a different avenue

    • Nathan

      saw a baby gray whale, too…

  • Sokafriend

    78 degrees, 20% humidity on the mast of the US Midway on the bay at Coronado. 86 in Rosarito, 83 Bonita- Fire Dept in Tijuana has attended to 117 fires in the municipality of Tijuana so far this morning blamed on transformers, wires down… howling Santa Ana’s.
    All morning long wind and 35-40 relentless gusts have suddenly just stopped. No real winding down- they just stopped- rather weird.

    • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

      I’d steer clear of the restaurant in the stern of the Midway.

    • That’s warmer than the tip of Baja California where I was last week. Since it’s hotter in SoCal than Baja, does calling it the Baja ridge even make sense anymore? More like Port Highneme. HollyRidge. Torridge. Los Highgeles. Ridgeside. Santa Monihigh. RRRidgecrest. Tehighchapi. Anahighm.

  • MJO amplitude might help with a major SSW warming event rather than little displacements.

  • Amazing: many places in SoCal are now approaching all-time January high temperatures (mostly in the low 90s). Will be interesting to see final tally this PM…

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Why California, why not New York or Ohio or Wisconsin

      • White Lightning

        Seriously! Haven’t we had enough of this?!! Why can’t they take the record highs for just a little bit sometime

        • RunningSprings6250

          By a little bit I trust you mean, FOR THE NEXT TEN YEARS!

      • Dan the Weatherman

        Good question! Why is it always us getting this level of heat? I believe it has to do with the mildness of our climate in the first place, as the other states you mentioned are much colder on average than we are.

        • RunningSprings6250

          But still – NOWHERE else in the lower 48 has had the kind of warm departures from normal as we have consistently for years and years now!

          Maybe it’s no joke…..the beginning of true long-term desertification……Some areas have been deserts for 50 million years. Deserts have come and gone, some are young some old….some brand freaking new……

          • Dan the Weatherman

            Approximately what year would you say that these type of warm departures became more consistent in Socal? I am just curious when you started to notice the trend.

          • RunningSprings6250

            Late 90s and with a vengeance come 2011…

            For me it was the transition from marine layer dominated summers in the Santa Maria Valley to more to extensive sunny and warmer days and an increase in offshore winds which use to be almost exclusively an ‘Indian summer’ phenomena in that area….

            I remember some summers you wouldn’t see the sun for several weeks!

          • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

            I’ve been up there (SMV) quite a few times the last 6-12 months and I’ve seen the Guadalupe fog bank suppressed right at the water. Stratus has rarely pushed deep…I remember not to long ago seeing it overcast all day up to the Tepusquet area quite regularly.

  • JOHN CURTIS

    OFFICIAL NOTICE:

    FOR THE SANITY OF ALL OF US, I HEREBY PLACE A MORATORIUM ON FURTHER BLOG POSTS.

    THE MORATORIUM WILL BE LIFTED WHEN FANTASY LAND HAS RAIN RETURNING TO THE ENTIRE STATE.

    //jc:wwon//

    • Pfirman

      Thank you. Let us know when you are ready to come back.

    • PRCountyNative

      IMPORTANT NOTICE:

      Introducing the patented, new “Model Fast!” (patent pending)

      Yes, now you can go 7, 10, or even 14 days with absolutely NO WEATHER MODELS!

      We know that you need a break, as do the machines that continually crank out these worthless documents.

      Get outside, enjoy the beautiful weather! Look for flocks of seagulls, or not! Read the clouds! Check out the flora and fauna! Learn something!

      Life in present time is truly worth living. 384 hours out never comes!

      • AlTahoe

        Warning model fast may cause Diarrhea and cold sweats.

    • matthew

      Rain will be back on tomorrow’s 12Z. Then it will disappear again. Repeat a few times followed by a mass-neurotic freakout on the board. Then rain mid-February.

    • SoCalWXwatcher
    • thebigweasel

      It was nice knowing you…

  • Atmospheric_River

    A not long time ago, half a world away:

    WEATHER WARS

    It is February 2018. There is a weak La Nina. Thus far, the winter has been drier than normal in California and most of the US. A strong ridge of high pressure has been blocking storminess for long periods of time. Though the RRR was destroyed last year, he is intent on getting revenge…

    Meanwhile, the MJO gains strength in the Western Pacific. The RRR approaches him.

    RRR: My man the MJO! You look strong today.
    MJO: Thank you. Who exactly are you?
    RRR: I am just a humble ridge, and I need your help.
    MJO: Me? Why?
    RRR: I am sure you are aware of how humans are destabilizing the climate.
    MJO: Yes, I am. What are you planning to do about it?
    RRR: Using your power, I am planning to teach the people a lesson.
    MJO: You’re right! Those meddling humans have thrown the climate into chaos. I’ll help you.
    RRR: First, I’ll set up shop over California, since a lot of polllution and greenhouse emissions are produced there.

    The MJO begins to feed power into the RRR. The RRR contacts his master, Drought Lorde.

    Drought Lorde: Are all the preparations for your invasion in order?
    RRR: Yes, my lord. I have made a deal with a powerful benefactor: the MJO. With his strength, I can sit over the West Coast for eons.
    Drought Lorde: Good… Now when we dry the landscape, no one can stop us. I hope you will not fail me as you did last winter.
    RRR: All the teleconnections were working against me last winter. I could not get a foothold on the West Coast. I had to relocate. That will not be the case this winter.
    Drought Lorde: I hope so… for your sake.

    The RRR begins growing stronger and stronger as the MJO provides him with energy. He sits over the West Coast and the temperature begins to warm.

    Drought Lorde: Now, let’s make some drought.

    The RRR begins to whip up a strong offshore wind. The landscape begins to dry out. Any incoming storm is deflected into Canada and Alaska. The large amount of grass that grew during the last rainy season is now parched and dessicated. With the ferocious, hot wind, the dry tinder smolders and sparks, eventually turning into a wildfire. The wind fans the flames. The brushfire is now a huge blaze.

    Meanwhile, the East Asian Jet watches what is happening.

    East Asian Jet: I must do something to stop the RRR. I think I’ll contact the MJO. He can help.

    The East Asian Jet contacts the MJO.

    MJO: What do you want?
    East Asian Jet: I must stop that ridge and I need your help. Together, we can defeat him.
    MJO: No. I’m helping that ridge right now. He says he can teach humans a lesson for destabilizing the climate.
    East Asian Jet: You don’t understand. The ridge is trying to spread drought to the entire US. If you don’t stop him, he could dry out the entire world!
    MJO: Villian! I’ve been tricked. I’ll teach him a lesson.
    East Asian Jet: I have many allies and a sizable army. I am certain I can defeat him.

    East Asian Jet contacts his friend Atmospheric River.

    Atmospheric River: Hey, East Asian Jet. How can I help you?
    East Asian Jet: I need your help in order to defeat the RRR and soak the land.
    Atmospheric River: I’d be happy to! That stupid ridge keeps sending me into Canada! And it already rains a lot there!
    East Asian Jet: Good. I’ll call up the storms. You can provide them with moisture.
    Atmospheric River: Will do.

    The East Asian Jet forms his army. Powered by the MJO, they mount an attack on the RRR.

    RRR: Hey, that’s the East Asian Jet heading here. Well, at least I’m still being powered by the… MJO? Grrrr… why did you stop the energy, MJO?!
    MJO: Sorry, RRR. I don’t work for you anymore.
    RRR: Fine, then!
    East Asian Jet: Attack!

    The East Asian Jet, Atmospheric River, and the storms begin slamming into the ridge.

    Storm: It’s no good, sir. The ridge seems to be holding up. It’s taking all our hits.
    East Asian Jet: Hmm. I have an idea. The ridge is weaker on his southern flank. If we can continuously attack that part, we may be able to undercut the ridge and deliver rain and snow to the West! I’ll guide the way.
    Storm: Yes, sir!

    The East Asian Jet and his army begin bombarding the ridge and trying to undercut it.

    RRR: Ha! Fools. You thought you could undercut? I am the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge! I am resilient! I am powerful! I am almighty!
    East Asian Jet: Oh, yeah?

    The ridge holds up to the heavy bombardment as best as he can. Ultimately, however, he is no match for the MJO-powered East Asian Jet. The ridge explodes in a flash of light as the moisture laden storms drop rain and snow over the US.

    East Asian Jet, Atmospheric River, Storms, MJO: Woohoo!!!!!

    Meanwhile, the broken ridge tries to piece himself together. He contacts Drought Lorde.

    Drought Lorde: I see that you have failed.
    RRR: Forgive me, master. The MJO betrayed us.
    Drought Lorde: I knew this would happen. The MJO is not very reliable. All the same, I still hold you accountable. The only reason I am not disposing of you is because you hold great potential.
    RRR: Thank you.
    Drought Lorde: We can make this victory work for us. Now that you have scorched the landscape, when the rain comes, the soil cannot absorb it. Mudflows and landslides will occur and kill many people. Then they will know the true cost of an East Asian Jet victory.

    • White Lightning

      Is this you deepest and darkest fantasy?

      • Atmospheric_River

        This is a manifestation of fantasyland.

    • Phil(ontario)

      This should be made into a children’s book. Entertaining yet educational.
      Well done.

      • Atmospheric_River

        Thanks! I drew a lot of inspiration from Star Wars, as you can see.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Blood clots in the nose can only mean strong Santa Ana winds and single digit humidity.

    • Charlie B

      Things are getting gross around here.

    • matthew

      TMI.

    • thebigweasel

      It was like that here yesterday. Cross the carpet to pet the cat and the cat explodes…

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • Dan the Weatherman

      If our weather keeps drying out like this, we are going to need these desal plants soon!

      • matthew

        If it keeps drying out like this the natural environment in SoCal will continue burning to a crisp until it transitions to a desert. I guess the lawns will be green though. Do you really think people are going to want to live through that transition?

        • There are big issues soon to be faced. Take a look at what is happening in South Africa. Here, not only will So Cal turn into a desert, so will the Central Valley, and there goes a lot of the nations food.

          One thing to consider if you live in So Cal, as things dry out, how long until the real estate market crashes because everybody is moving to cooler, wetter places? It might be time to start planning a move now before the crash while your home is worth enough to buy elsewhere.

          • Dry Bones

            Nah. Most people love this horrid climate. Not to mention people have been known to live in places like Palm Springs and Phoenix.

    • honzik

      I understand that part of the reason the cost for a 1.5″ water hookup in Santa Cruz is so high ($32k for a 1.5″ hookup) is that the county is pricing in the cost of a desalination plant. Or so says my plumber.

      BTW, SciAm has a good article on moder desalination technology.

      • Monterey has been fighting all kinds of opposition from every angle trying to get Desal up and running. It’s actually less expensive to recycle household waste water.

        • Pfirman

          The sun on the oceans is the best desal, but it is not reliable with its deliveries as to timing and location. Ah well.

    • jstrahl

      While the planet is entering growing energy shortages due to peak oil/gas? Great idea it is NOT.

      • Wake up!!! Lol When I was in grammar school we were going to run out of dino about 6 years ago. I’m not saying dino-fuel is the answer.

      • matthew

        Use wave energy to drive pumps to push the seawater directly through the membrane. No need to generate electricity to run the pumps.

        • jstrahl

          Nowhere near enough energy to do that *reliably*!

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        If we no longer can bend… We will break.

        • jstrahl

          It’s our political/economic/social institutions and our lifestyles which will need to bend, because we cannot bend material resources or the global climate system.

          • Consistent Zero Upvotes

            All of previous human nature indicates that change will come too late and be ineffective when it arrives because it is too profitable to cheat when others self handicap. So, it will be either mass migration or some mega-technical breakthrough, or both.

          • jstrahl

            Or extinction. The idea that there’s always gonna be a techno-fix is based on zero evidence.

      • PRCountyNative

        Easy sleazy for solar panels. Get with the present.

        • jstrahl

          Oh, the present? You mean like “alternative energy”? Thats supposed to power the world as it is and in fact maintain exponential economic growth? 🙂
          http://energyskeptic.com/category/energy/alternative-energy-energy/

          • PRCountyNative

            I’m talking about providing quick clean green cheap electricity to drive desalinization plants in sunny socal.

            Not a peep from me about exponential growth or ‘powering the world’.

            Producing water locally with solar will SAVE huge amounts of your precious oil and gas. Do you know how much of CA’s total electricity use is consumed by moving water around?

            Absent desal, where is the oil- and gas-free water going to come from?

          • jstrahl

            It won’t come. Period. Ready for breakdown. Read the articles i posted about this, including the one from the Oil Drum written by a former San Diego city council person.http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5155 The notion of cheap green energy is a delusion. sorry. Read the article from the post you’re responding to.

    • That looks more like Carlsbad.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        That is the desal plant in Carlsbad.

  • thebigweasel

    Fair bit of overcast streaming overhead from the SW. Any chance of showers in that?

    • celo

      Yeah maybe some tropical thunderstorms in January? Why not? Who the hell knows where we will end up climate wise in the next 10 to 15 years

      • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

        Weird times…I’ve just given up trying to understand it. Feels like we’re in a perpetual late October pattern…

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        Will turn tropical with daily scattered thunderstorms! One can wish

        • celo

          Our weather may become similar to culican or Cabo San Lucas. Most of our rainfall occurring in the summer months. The only problem is interior North America is wide and dry unlike Mexico that is bordered by the Gulf of Mexico and California

      • Do you really think it will take that long? I don’t.

    • alanstorm

      Here’s a pic to the SW of you in Mendo Co.
      Hoping this isn’t the last snow I’ll see gracing Mt. Sanhedrin this season….
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/33770c13f2b3c636bba3026addd365ba60fb0d7c7a9e1c0fcd15511b0ed33747.jpg

  • Freddy66

    Always pleasant when the air conditioning turns on automatically in January.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    man no rain out too FEB 14th FEB may end up be dry this has DEC was

    what hop for a wet MAR and wet APR APR storms can be fun with low snow and t-storm outbreaks some times

    • Sokafriend

      Some times it does rain and snow in the spring. Yes. Thank you. I like simple truths in forecasting, too.
      It seems for that to happen some time this spring, other major chaos would be happening, too. Not so fun.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    follow up on weather W post below about the heat

    https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/958135241385893888

  • Thunderstorm

    Starting to look very grim for areas east of the Rockies from Colorado south this Spring. Dry line will extend farther east. Already warmer then normal and no moisture. And as is normal now world wide the ability to predict past a few days is a guess at best.

    • Sokafriend

      Great summation.

  • Ah, the fantasy land tease. Now you see, now you don’t.

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    If you’re looking for some encouraging long range ensemble support, you’ve come to the wrong place.

    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/958122565255532544

    • Freddy66

      Why ? This might be a question asked in frustration but why does the ridge keep popping up and staying in place instead of transitioning somewhere else. Is this caused by global warming or some other entity ?

      • weathergeek100

        This is the research that Daniel is doing. This is nothing like we’ve ever seen in our times.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        As weathergeek100 mentions, Daniel is involved with research on this very topic. Check out his December 4th blog update:

        http://weatherwest.com/archives/date/2017/12/page/2

      • Tuolumne

        It’s the RRR

        Ours is not to question why,
        Ours is just to sit and fry.

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        North Pacific ridge can be a persistent feature of La Nina winters. I think telecomnections with LaNina lined up this yearvfor this

    • Well they were dumping snow earlier this season so I guess they got that part squared away. The dates are in pencil so they can be used on a rotating basis every year.

  • Atmospheric_River

    Does Daniel mark stuff as spam or is it done automatically by the system?

    • Some of both.

      • Atmospheric_River

        So, did you delete the story I posted earlier?

        • RunningSprings6250

          Haha!

          Well I know my climate warfare comment was deleted but that I expected….??????

          • Atmospheric_River

            But then why are Drought Lorde’s posts never deleted?

          • RunningSprings6250

            Honestly, don’t know don’t care ?????

          • His posts are weather related unfortunately.

          • Drought Lorde

            Because Drought Lorde only posts weather related things. Just not things people like. But high pressure is the only weather here this year! 🙂

        • Not that I’m aware of.

        • Tuolumne

          Disqus does weird stuff like making posts disappear when they’re still there. Try reloading.

    • Nicole Black

      Honestly, I hope it’s done by Daniel’s ophthalmologist or several dedicated assistants. Daniel has to read/scan endless comments and tweets daily; most of them in a tiny font. I don’t know how he does it. If he continues at his current pace, his eyesight is going to deteriorate faster than the climate. There’s also the “flag as inappropriate” option under the arrow on the far right.

  • palmsprings
    • RunningSprings6250

      The thing I keep taking away from these – at least this type of heat has happened plenty and a long time ago too….that’s not to take away from the persistency they were seeing these last several years though…

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        You should have seen the temperature records in Chula Vista back when the Earth was a still-molten proto-planet.

        • RunningSprings6250

          Ok now someone’s taking this a little too far – that’s usually my job! ??

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            What’ll really blow your mind is what Escondido will look like when the Sun’s hydrogen fusion process ends and it swells into a Red Giant. 😉

          • RunningSprings6250

            I hope mortality fulfills its purpose so I do not experience that inevitability. LOL!

  • K?ros

    https://twitter.com/SandhyaABC7/status/958162965399724032 I let out a little involuntary chuckle when I saw this couldn’t help myself

    • Dan the Weatherman

      Storm after storm: I would prefer a mid winter series of storms affecting the entire state with much needed lower elevation rain and mountain snow to build up the snow pack.

    • jstrahl

      Dry spell? There was a short wet spell in a very dry “wet” season.

    • March Miracle (SMX)

      We sure need “storm after storm”. We’re not supposed to be in the 80s for most of the week in late January.

    • John

      Looks suspiciously like another 36% that disregards actual facts and creeping disaster.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    i per storm with a break in the weather so you can get out and work and make $ its hard too do if you have storm after storm with little too no break at all

  • Taz & Storm Master

    looks like we start the spring run off early this year

    there may be little too no snow up in the mts by time FEB ends

  • Atmospheric_River

    I’m going to tell another weather story that I heard from my mom when I was little.

    Once, the wind was very arrogant. He kept boasting about how much power he had.

    “I am the strongest weather phenomenon perhaps on this entire planet!” he used to brag.

    One day, the sun decided to put a stop to his boasting. “I don’t think you’re the strongest,” said the sun.

    “Oh, yeah?” the wind retorted.

    “Yeah,” answered the sun. “I’ll prove it to you.”

    “Fine,” said the wind. “See that man walking along that road? I’m gonna blow his coat off.”

    “I bet I can beat you to it,” said the sun.

    So the challenge began. The wind blew as hard as he could. The man on the road began to feel much colder and tightened his coat. In fact, he took out another coat which he wore over the previous one.

    “My turn,” said the sun. The sun shined brightly down on the man, and the weather warmed. The man became hot and sweaty under all those layers, so he took them off.

    “See?” said the sun.

    And from that day onwards, the wind never boasted again.

  • Taz & Storm Master
  • Nathan
    • Taz & Storm Master

      LOL

  • Charlie B

    I just read that Lima Perú is starting to build its first desal plant. Lima is a city of 8m people that gets 1.2” of fog drip a year.

    • Pfirman

      Glaciers have not proven to be long term hydration solution.

  • Atmospheric_River

    Hmmm… 00z GFS shows some undercutting. The ridge seems to shift to the north.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ed7cebb7e0bed8badb9e87b5dc94cdb667022baa7c65c714d8742b94c10e1c84.png

    • RandomTreeInSB

      Seems to be similar to the CFS weeklies, of course this is just one run and CFS isn’t the most accurate thing in the world, so I’m not hyped about it just yet.

    • Taz & Storm Master

      nic try GFS it will show nothing on the next run watch

    • weathergeek100

      Not going to happen. Just give up. I’m trying to give up. It’s hard though I’ll admit it

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        Says the guy who thought the Bay Area would see less than 5 inches of rain this year, LOL

        • weathergeek100

          I don’t recall ever saying that. I said that about SoCal, not the bay area.

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            Maybe I’m thinking of the time when you said SoCal would get 0.00 rain this season

          • weathergeek100

            Yes I did say that! I didn’t actually think that was going to be the case, I was just being dramatic (it is my style for many of my posts). Now, being more realistic, I do think there’s a chance that SoCal will break the record for driest season ever. I don’t think the chance of that is very high, but I do think there’s a chance.

          • The ingredients certainly are there…we’ve made it to the recordbooks regarding wildfires…

      • PRCountyNative

        Giving up is the first step to fulfillment!

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
    • Fake news.

  • Phil(ontario)

    Slow day on the blog, AAAAAAAANNNDD we are not supposed to be looking at any models. Let’s play Los Angeles battle of the decades. Rain fall addition.
    Average yearly rainfall for the decade.
    14. 2010s 10.37 (if we get to 5 inches this year)
    13. 1890s 12.03
    12. 1980s 12.76
    11. 1920s 12.78
    10. 1950s 12.82
    9. 1910s 13.52
    8. 2000s 14.07
    7. 1940s 14.44
    6. 1960s 15.09
    5. 1900s 15.31
    4. 1930s 16.75
    3. 1970s 16.97
    2. 1990s 17.08
    1. 1880s 18.74

    Surprised? Stay tuned tomorrow where we have battle of the centuries. (well battle of the last 300 years anyway).

    • Nate

      Just read an interesting writeup on the 1861-1862 rains–according to several (unofficial) reports, Los Angeles received over 66 inches of rain that season, 28 more than the official record in 1883-1884. I don’t know how accurate this claim is, but it’s astounding nonetheless.

      http://www.redlandsfortnightly.org/papers/Taylor06.htm

    • Phil(ontario)

      I noticed if we were to graph this data it would be quite the roller coaster ride which supports the idea that we might be in a dry rainfall cycle, and not headed for a permanent change. Droughts like our current one have happened before usually after periods of abundant rain.

  • happ [Los Angeles]
  • weathergeek100

    ‘unreal’, ‘feels like 2015’…..need I say more? This, from the Monterey AFD:

    ‘Stepping through the 00z gfs is pretty unreal in terms of how
    stable the pattern will become the next 10 days. There is
    virtually no chance of rain with strong high pressure aloft. The
    surface pattern will likely feature periods of offshore flow with
    a well defined thermal trough along the coast. Only items to
    monitor will be possible gusty offshore winds in the mid and long
    range and perhaps some days of record highs?

    Forecast item of interest is really in the 10-15 day range. Both
    the gfs and ecmwf global models show a 200 kt plus jet stream out
    over the western and central pacific by Feb 8th while the strong
    ridge will be anchored over the West Coast. How this jet stream
    tries to undercut or interact with the ridge will be the feature
    to watch over the coming weeks. The operational gfs runs out
    through about Feb 15th remain dry but indicate moisture could
    increase from the west the second half of the month. It feels like
    2015 again…’

    • jstrahl

      Trying not to be too picky, but in 2015, the brief wet spell came not in the second half. It came on the 6th-8th, some 2.5 inches here, that was it for the month.

  • Yolo Hoe

    As BA noted today, it’s amazing how well the meager snowfall has held up for winter sports this year — was fantastic snowshoeing today off of the PCT despite the snowpack resembling what I saw last year at 10 miles east of the Crest at 6100 feet elevation

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      “What about this year?

      If last year showed you anything, it’s that it just takes a couple of rain events to turn a water year into one of the wettest ever (4). So far, with a stronger La Niña during this 2017-18 winter, California has been characteristically drier than average, despite a recent increase in rains during the middle of January. Taking a look at where things stand as of January 16, the recent rains have brought the water year closer to normal. However, if we look back at past history, most years this dry by this point have ended their water year with below-average precipitation in San Francisco, San Diego and Los Angeles, with more of a mixed bag in Sacramento. And the NOAA CPC seasonal forecast expects drier than average conditions to prevail.”

  • March Miracle (SMX)

    Looking at WU’s 10-day forecast: Is it February or did we skip all the way to October? Ridiculous. We need a state of the climate address: We’re doomed.

    • Howard Goodman

      Not suppose to be this nice this time of year even up at 6K feet there’s only a little bit of snow

  • That a doughnut, large and tenacious though this one is, is capable of keeping such an enormous area dry in February for so long, defies statistical probability. And here we haze the 06z swinging at that, 1st thought was “too weak a signal – possibly an outlier”. But the GEM ensemble suggests this isn’t the case.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b4bb097f1fe579f5b5df080ba8ee26dab722d4531a5e288d8c3f5a1393bc4f08.gif
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1b306b13be70bf0808cca56c21d2b2c4d8c2dc41f590deeb5eb592bc5c5ab493.gif

    • Yolo Hoe

      Agreed —and that dirty ridging hopefully portends weakness of some kind

      • matthew

        The 12Z has the first glimmer of fantasyland hope in quite a while. I am sure that it will disappear in subsequent runs, but hopefully it shows back up in a few days, closer in. FebruARy!

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          Take it for what it is. BA mentioned back in December during the first signs of a pattern change you can see inconsistencies in the models from run to run

          • matthew

            Yeah, fantasyland always starts out with a tease. Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes now. But I will take a wet tease right now over the dry humping we’ve been getting.

          • Bob G (Gustine)

            With that LP Area in the east it is going to be difficult to get anything. I won’t fall for those inside sliders that have us getting some rain from LP areas coming down east of us. Those have failed to happen everytime this year

          • matthew

            I was not looking at the inside sliders. Seems that there is a hint of a pineapple express out around the 14th.

    • janky

      Bring it (and the snow please).

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      As was discussed earlier, the ridge in west and the large trough in the east is responsible for this. This pattern reinforces itself and the low in the east keeps in the ridge locked in the west. The North Pacific ridge is a feature of La Nina winters. Unfortunately, it appears the teleconnections are not favorable for a strong jet so we are not getting undercutting of the ridge. We need this pattern to break which I am guessing isn’t going to happen to at least the latter part of February. I don’t have much hope in seeing any precip during the first 15 days of February

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Extremely dirty ridge over the state this morning, a lot more clouds than anybody was expecting…

  • Gary

    Duarte
    Took pic this morning.
    Mouth of San Gabriel canyon.
    NE wind 12 to 18 MPH.

    Yard notes
    Did heavy pruning of rose 1st or 2nd week of Jan.
    Now all of them have new growth to 2 inches already..

    Chinese Flame tree in backyard can’t make up its mind.
    Leaves turn yellow and start to drop. Then process stops then starts again over last few weeks.

    Saw my first “bomber beetle”. I think they are Fig Eater beetles. Never see those till summer.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c8d689590ecc7005d0d44237edaf5bd3138832f5c2236c17cd2475d338208978.jpg

    • Right? After that small storm a few weeks ago I think 2nd week of January my whole neighborhood looked like October, leaves freshly fallen with the storm everywhere. Some trees I’ve seen budding, and there’s a Sago Palm thriving nearby. Wisteria finally crapped out though.

  • AlTahoe
    • PRCountyNative

      Very nice photo!

      Passed thru your neighborhood a couple Friday’s ago. Just ahead of that lake effect snowstorm. It’s been > 30 yrs.

      • AlTahoe

        I want to get a picture of tomorrow morning’s lunar eclipse right above the snowman’s head . Hopefully the fog doesn’t ruin it.

  • PRCountyNative

    From Daniel’s tweets, right sidebar:

    “In summary: the past is not the future. Models don’t “run hot”. We got lucky. But our luck’s run out. Happy Tuesday!”

    From Dr Kate Marvel. She has a sort of stream of consciousness tweet thread going. Her point seems to be that models show more heat than we have had, but with a little warmer water the clouds will disperse and the heat will be on.

    Also, we can’t look at the past for guidance.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Calling all Model Riders-get ready for the fun of middle of the month riding. No charge to join in-just the pain and frustration that comes with moisture being shown then disappearing. Who’s in for the fun?

    • matthew

      Already there! As I just below I will take a wet fantasyland tease over the continued dry humping we’ve been getting.

    • AlTahoe

      We will get one storm followed by another 30 – 45 days of dry just like in December.

    • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

      Are you kidding? Its the prime season to get super pumped on models. Saddle up WW!!!

    • Yolo Hoe

      I’m on the bus — I think alanstorm’s East Asian Express will have what it takes this time — we were oh so close in January — February brings it home.

      Spring skiing today at Northstar was absolutely outstanding — these days are not all bad.

  • Charlie B

    State all time high temperature records were set (or tied, which is why the total is greater than 50) in which century/decade?
    Before 1900: 3…
    1900-09: 1.
    1910-19: 9………
    1920-29: 3…
    1930-39: 26……………………..
    1040-49: 0
    1950-59: 5…..
    1960-69: 1.
    1970-79: 2..
    1980-89: 4….
    1990-99: 4….
    2000-09: 1.
    2010-current: 1.
    My point? None. I just find it more interesting that searching for fantasyland storms that will likely never be more than a fleeting computer graphic.

    • AlTahoe

      The 30’s fascinate me as most of the Midwest record high temps and record cold temps happened in the same calendar year during that time period. Those records still stand today. The ridges during that time period must have been monsters.
      Also when looking at the 1880-1900 period on the Donner summit snow graph chart, there were huge oscillation’s of big snow years followed by exceptional dry ones.They happened one after the other. The totals were much more smoothed out the later you go after that time period which also suggest huge blocking ridges

      • Charlie B

        That is true. It is also notable that the decade of the 40’s has no state highs. The 30’s saw 7 states set their all time lows (sometimes in the same year, as you note) as well, which ties with the 1990’s for the most record lows in any one decade. Plus, Donner Pass saw two of its 10 snowiest winters during the 1930’s.

        • AlTahoe

          There were also extreme global heatwaves during that period as well.

          http://www.c3headlines.com/2012/07/extreme-climate-change-severe-weather-events-1933-1938.html

          • AlTahoe

            This link has tons of headlines from the period. Even Arctic temps were way above normal. A hurricane hit Iceland.

          • PRCountyNative

            I feel icky when I go to sites like that:

            “Conclusion: The current extreme fear-mongering and severe hysterical claims emanating from the mouths of climate-doomsday scientists and their MSM cohorts are truly unprecedented – today’s extreme climate change and severe weather incidents, not so much.”

          • AlTahoe

            I didn’t even see that part. Just saw that it had headlines for the extreme patterns that were present during that period. This was not meant to be an anti climate change post. Just information regarding a period with extreme ridging.

          • PRCountyNative

            I believe you! Just not a good source for ‘objective’ information. I was hoping I might find stories about big fires or other human factors, ain’t gonna happen at that site!

          • AlTahoe

            Definitely not 🙂

          • PRCountyNative

            What about the dust bowl days? Enough particulates to warm the arctic and mess with the weather?

          • Pfirman

            Provocative, heh. I do remember reading somewhere about dustbowl storms being so harsh and abrasive they could strip paint from buildings and feathers from chickens.
            I don’t recall my parents ever speaking of such things for some reason.

          • Yolo Hoe

            Mine grew up in Kansas and most definitely did speak frequently of those times, usually referring to them as ‘the dirty thirties’ — that along with having literally no money were always topics of discussion

          • Pfirman

            Oh, yes, mine talked about the no money part too. Great Depression. Guessing Ohio did not have weird climate then though.

      • PRCountyNative

        In reading about black carbon affecting the arctic, they mentioned forest fires as a main contributor. I wouldn’t rule out the human factor even back in the ’30’s, or even earlier.

        Human population and influence on the planet (and atmosphere) is exploding, and has exploded, especially since the industrial age.

        We literally Burned Down the old order, forests and other residents, and set about draining, tilling, chopping, extirpating our way to being a good christian nation.

        This was occurring all over the planet. Man versus nature. I wouldn’t be surprised if the coal burned, and forests eliminated, and natives flushed by fire, all peaked in some sort of black soot heat and cold inducing orgy.

      • Those temps and precip deficits still hold muster with most any climatology available. Pretty sure it was lack of rain and oppressive heat in growing season. Those precip anomalies look rather meh during DJFM. In fact winter temps were a little below average during DJFM

      • Chris

        Much of the landscape was barren due to poor farming practices.
        Instead of having vegetation cooling the air somewhat, the landscape behaved like a desert.
        Trees in winter also absorb more sunlight….. especially evergreens….. than snow.
        If it was more barren, then there was more snow to reflect the sunlight.
        I recently experienced this flying to the Midwest.
        Large crop fields completely white with snow while the natural forests were significantly darker due to tree bark and in some cases evergreens.

    • Phil(ontario)

      Scroll down to my post from last night to see how rainfall correlates to these temperatures.

    • I’m really impressed you got data predating colombus, bravo!
      Also isn’t this kind of misleading? If the record keeps going up then doesn’t this show nothing? Like if it’s 100 in 1925 and then 105 and 1950 and then 110 in 1990, wouldn’t this mask a new normal? Like if now an area sees just below the record often now it won’t break its record but still nothing like 1925

      • Charlie B

        I don’t know whether it is misleading or not. These are just raw numbers. They do not reflect averages, length of heat waves or anything else. It just means that, for instance, on August 10, 1936, the reporting station at Ozark, Arkansas reached 120 and there has never been a higher recorded temperature in that state. It is like saying that on January 20, 1937, Boca, near Truckee, got down to -45 and no place in California has ever recorded a lower temperature. (I fixed the Columbus issue….)
        I have noted, previously, that relatively few mayor locations in California have experienced their all time highs in recent years. SF just last year, (and I think Eureka tied theirs) and LA within the last 10, but most all time highs were set awhile back. That says nothing whatsoever about increasing averages or an increasing number of daily highs and a dwindling number of record daily lows.

  • PRCountyNative

    Yet another gorgeous tropical day! It may not dip below 60 degrees for the next 2 weeks! Very clear air, slightly ominous looking clouds.

    Northern Santa Lucia’s, by Craig’s house.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a4bda9e877d0d57abbe46b91f6171e63f545c4efefea79f2664f021cefe743d7.jpg

  • March Miracle (SMX)

    Thick high cloud cover today. Guess it won’t reach the 80s today as forecasted.

  • honzik

    It’s fascinating to watch the cooler, drier air push through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Southern Mexico on the TPW plot. It seems like there is a lot more of that going on this year….

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/epac/mimictpw_epac_latest.gif

  • nunbub

    Anybody read Cliff Mass’s recent blog post? Check it out. He is directly contradicting what Daniel and his team have shown in their research of west coast ridges. That man has been getting on my nerves recently. His focus on spinning/contradicting/reducing the arguments, research, etc. of fellow scientists who study AGW is downright counterproductive.

      • nunbub

        Thank you! Perhaps I’ll drop these links as a comment on Cliff’s blog post. (Edit) Nevermind, he has already replied stating that he takes issue with your team’s methods…at least he’s honest!

        • Pfirman

          Just look at the last three letters of his surname.

          • nunbub

            lol

        • They’re both educated and can and do discuss their differences

      • Bombillo1

        Exactly the right response Daniel.

    • I read his stuff most of the time. He did have some good arguments for using MPAS vs the newly adopted FV-3.

    • PRCountyNative

      He is sounding political and personal in your referred to post, and not scientific. Bad vibe.

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      Why let him get on your nerves? He has his own opinion agree or disagree and at the end of the day the ridges don’t care about theories

      • nunbub

        Sigh…I know. It’s just that he has been king reductionist for the better part of the last year it seems. It finally brought me to a boil when he just dismissed Daniel’s research with a couple of blog paragraphs this week. But yes, you are right, the ridges don’t care one ounce about what anyone has to say.

      • PRCountyNative

        So true, thank you!

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Because laymen need to police climatologists when they get out of line.

    • tkp

      Having read Cliff’s blog for years I have learned that he is always slanted toward “it is no big deal” and “it is all within normal variability.” Even though I don’t really agree with that myself, I keep reading because he does still have some insightful weather explanations and observations.

  • happ [Los Angeles]
    • Freddy66

      Our only hope is if the jet stream can undercut the ridge. Otherwise we’re toast

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        One storm in Jan, maybe no storms in Feb. Looks bleak

        • Dan the Weatherman

          Something’s gotta give sometime soon. I can’t imagine Socal getting completely shut out for the remainder of winter and spring, considering how dry the fall was.

        • “Storm” is an over exaggeration.

  • inclinejj

    77.0 degrees 29.87 and barometer still falling 29.87. Pacifica.

    Edit: 77.9! 1:40 pm.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      The Pacifica outside San Francisco,right?

      • inclinejj

        Yes Sir.

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          your thermometer is broken

  • matthew

    Since it is safe to say that I won’t get any precip tomorrow, I am jumping the gun on monthly totals. Tomorrow I will be spending a nice warm spring day on the golf course so will probably not get around to this. Currently an April-like 56F out.

    January 2018 rain : 2.05″ snow : 19.25″
    January 2017 rain : 6.25″ snow : 115″

    YTD 2018 rain : 6.8″ snow : 27″
    YTD 2017 rain : 24″ snow : 133.5″

    • Cap’n

      It’s fun looking at our numbers side by side and pretty impressive how consistent they are to the expected spread. I’m at just over 5″ of rain and 22″ for snow in January. Yet since October although we’re close on snow, I’m at 28″, I’m way above you for rain, right around 20″ (numbers are at home), probably due to the November rains that didn’t push over the crest much. Cool to see your numbers from last January too. I received 180″ of snow that month and maybe around 10″ of rain (numbers are at home). What a crazy month that was.

      • matthew

        I should put an asterisk next to my January numbers as I was in Kona for our one and only snow. I am going by a picture that the neighbor took. Surprised that you got that much more rain than me.

        • Cap’n

          Possible that you didn’t record all of the November rain? I thought I remember you not having a gauge yet? But yeah those systems were prime examples of crest huggers. Everyday I drove to work it would be sprinkling in Central Truckee and raining hard at home.

          • matthew

            I did part with $7 and bought another gauge but I don’t think it arrived until late Nov so I may have missed something. Plus I would not have logged any rain last week while I was gone. I need to get much more anal about this…

          • Cap’n

            Let’s make an executive WW decision and call it another 4.5” in the gauge for time missed. I still can’t believe I even have a rain gauge, living where we live. There was a time when rain here in the winter was strictly nuisance, now it’s the nectar of the Gods. I never even thought of getting a gauge til I found this blog I think inclinejj coerced me.

          • matthew

            I honestly do not think that I missed that much. An inch maybe but certainly not 4.5”. I know that there were days when you were getting dumped on and I was getting drizzle so I do not think that I am that far off.

          • Cap’n

            I hear you. Hey it could’ve been our WW little secret. It’s kind of cool, I check my numbers compared to Blue Canyon, east side of Donner Lake, and sometimes Homewood and Alpine when I can find them, and I’ve generally been synced up pretty good with them. Oh well, the wait is on for some weather I suppose.

  • thebigweasel

    Just glanced at the webcams from Mt. Shasta ski park, and I’m guessing the park, which opened on the 24th, will be closing in the next day or two. It’s a pretty sad sight, with all of 12″ at the top and 1″ at the base. Highs near 60 for each of the next 5 days, no precip.

    • honzik

      Time to bring back the old Shasta Ski Bowl?

      • thebigweasel

        Well, if they can figure out the avalanche problem…

      • If I had $500 million dollars I’d make a ski resort there or Sonora pass. There are some untapped slopes out there…

        • honzik
          • I’ve driven by that many times, if anyone is going to make a ski resort they have to go big, super high elevation. Next 30 years will be unkind so the 11k ft Sonora area is promising, and the Shasta region is so snowy it’s “untameable”. Those spots hold promise as when the snow line inevitable moves far uphill permanently, those locations will still be viable.
            Poor Dodge Ridge 🙁

          • honzik

            I skied Dodge Ridge in the late 70s where every high school band in the Bay Area went at least once a year. I used to go to the top and ski straight down. We called it Dodge Flats.

            More to the point, since then the State’s population has doubled but hardly any new resorts, pricing out lots of folks who otherwise might be interested in skiing more.

            Is there a way to sufficiently address environmental concerns and still build out a few more ski areas?

          • PRCountyNative

            Surely population will naturally double again, for today’s youngsters future enjoyment, as it did for ours. How do you think California with 80 million will fare?

        • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

          I was wondering if there were higher up locations in SoCal that could be feasible, but what’s the point if there’s no snow in the first place ?

          • honzik

            I used to think that Pine Mountain just outside of Wrightwood might be a good spot, but who’s going to invest in a resort if there is no snow.

            https://80d2853cc4def76b377d-54344bc01a8b066c84096a8e7a3499ac.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/large/340122.jpg

          • If the Northern Sierra were as steep and varied as the Southern Sierra you could easily cram another dozen ski resorts in.
            Part of the problem is the good low hanging fruit has been picked, if you wanted an easygoing family style hill there’s a million ridges you could choose. If you want to cater to the double black crowd you have to pick carefully. Here’s a beautiful valley near Kennedy Meadows that with 10,500 -11,000+ feet peaks and gentle glacier slopes mixed in with steep-ass-madnass.
            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0bb914a45bfd505ee5c0a224c475d7a2497b80b66fd4828d86408e066755ad2c.jpg

          • Charlie B

            Once upon a time Disney wanted to develop Mineral King in the Southern Sierra as a destination resort. Several landmark environmental law cases were about all that came out of that grand idea. It is now a part of Sequoia National Park.

          • Having worked at his first attempt, Sugar Bowl, very familiar with the whole tale. It’s frustrating as a better site selection could have ended up in a fantastic success story. The region around and South of Bear Valley is sorely in need of a superb set of slopes. It may never happen, the elevation is there but there needs to be a financially well off steward at the helm…

          • This is neat:
            Mineral Peak

            https://goo.gl/maps/UKMVEZJYVek

        • matthew

          If I had $500M I would buy an island with no internet and say fuck it.

          • Bombillo1

            No kidding. Sounds like the punch-line to the old joke on how to become a millionaire, Start off with a billion and then start a business.

      • Charlie B

        Did you ever ski there? I lived in Mt. Shasta City the year that the avalanche took out the main lift. It was the season right after the mid 1970’s drought (1977-78). I skied there two days right before the avalanche. Both were cloudy days. The snow was not great (very wet sloppy syrup) and with flat light and no trees, it made for rather tough and unenjoyably conditions. There was a T bar off to the left in the trees which was actually pretty nice.

      • Reading that was depressing, I would literally move there for such a massive piste.
        Instead I’m just piste off.

    • Cap’n

      Agree with honzik below that place is way too low now for the heatbox we’re living in. California ski hills in 30 years, can’t even imagine them.

      • They won’t be here. I give Northstar with their top tier snowmaking operation 10-15 years of cold enough temps to make snow then the curtain is closed. At least at the current rate of snow level rise. I give Homewood 5 years or less to truly figure it out…heart and soul goes out to the little guys out there, Donner Summit region will change forever…

    • Bombillo1

      I believe it’s current base elevation is only 5400′, shockingly low for the 21st century.. Current owners purchased the operation just one year ago. Were they completely ignorant to the issues that we rant about here daily?

      • thebigweasel

        They must have been. It’s the end of January, and even their highest slopes have areas of bare rock and dirt showing. If they don’t have a big snow before Presidents’ weekend, they’re going to be showing catastrophic losses in their first year.

  • honzik

    Today’s high at ~2000 ASL in the SCMtns: 76°. In January. Unbelievable. Even more unbelievable: Last night’s low was 63°.

  • Azmordean

    I find myself curious what causes it to be warmer at the coast than inland. Even during summer and fall offshore wind heatwaves, usually the coast is cooler (relatively) than the interior.

    However under the current regime, temps at the coast are warmer, sometimes significantly so, than inland. Here in Mountain View, we are 67 which is our high for the day pretty much. Seems like earlier today places on the coast outpaced that considerably. Is it some kind of downsloping?

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      I think it is due to the ocean waters. The ocean water tends to even the temps more.

    • Cornholemaster (Ventura)

      Where I am on the coast, it has to do with adiabatic heating as the air flows from the high desert down in elevation to the coast. It also gets squeezed between the mountains (the ol’ thumb over the watering hose analogy), making the river valleys hot and windy.

    • matthew

      A similar, but different example is the difference between the Tahoe basin and Truckee. On any given summer day Truckee will usually be 5+ degrees warmer than around Tahoe. Likewise, in the winter Truckee will be 5 or more degrees cooler. A few billion gallons of water can do that…

      • Chris

        I was wondering how much Lake Tahoe cools the nearby areas.
        I would even think on dead calm days in late spring or early summer, there would be a marine layer since water temps are in the high 40s and air temps could be in the 70s by then.

    • PRCountyNative

      Get to know your microclimate, there is a logical answer! We topped out at 87 degrees today, inland Monterey County. There are warmer places nearby.

      In the winter the ocean keeps the coast warmer. In the summer, it should keep the coast cooler, except for east winds and adiabatic warming absent a sea breeze.

      At night the coast will stay warmer from less radiative cooling owing to less clear air, and something about hard flat inland surfaces giving up their heat more readily than cushy coastal climes.

      Also, south facing coastal spots can be really nice in the winter, like Santa Cruz. 11 am to Noon being the warmest. i did years of research on this!

      • Azmordean

        Very interesting! I know the interior tends to be colder at night during winter. I also know, when under a “cold air” setup, the interior is often colder than the coast during the day as well — less marine influence means the air mass moderates.

        I just found it odd that under a “warm air” / “Fall/summer” style setup like this one, that the coast would be warmer.

      • David Mata

        The high pressure tends be further east during the summer, in the four-corners region. At other times of the year, the high pressure comes right over us from the Pacific Ocean.

  • thebigweasel

    Oh, this is dire. Arctic sea ice extent is over half a million sq. kilometres below the record low for the date, and Antarctic is second lowest for the date, exceeded only by 2017. Northern maximum is in about six weeks, Antarctic minimum in about four weeks. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b8be6f55eb4dfce761f766982e999be1bbfda32d2607e465ecfdf698e478813f.png

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      I think we learned that this year as we watched strong jets on the models go nowhere near us

    • gray whale

      is it a chicken or the egg type of thing or is one phenomenon — namely the wane of the jet or the strength of the ridge — mostly responsible?

    • 2013 onward excluding last year. SEN wasn’t all that exciting either.

    • alanstorm

      WHAT?????
      …..we just can’t win

      • Yolo Hoe

        I’ve finally figured out that the joy of observing California weather is in the knowing of how many complex factors have to align jusssssst so to give us substantial precipitation

        • alanstorm

          It’s like my “Rubber Ball Bouncing in a Room” theory: no way to predict where it will end up landing

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Strap in model riders-two runs in a row now…the ride we all love (to hate) is beginning again.

    Another week of “beautiful” weather will lead to “Hello friends, greetings from beautiful Monterrey California for the 3rd round of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am.” As some poor golf fan sits in front of their TV bundled up in MN looking at a temp of -12 and begins to learn why people don’t often leave CA even if it’s expensive.

    • janky

      Is it me or did the 18Z actually look better?

      • Yolo Hoe

        Indeed — I’m pumped, but I guess even Storm Master is suffering from PRSD (persistent Ridge stress disorder) — we need some fresh troops so our guys can come off the front lines and rehab

  • Fairweathercactus

    The 12Z GFS was so bad that some of the slides didn’t even load up.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      They could just use one slide for the whole run. How many different frames of the West Coast ridge/warmth do we need to see?

  • JOHN CURTIS

    Lake Casitas, the ONLY water supply for much of western Ventura County and 70,000 people is holding strong at 35%!

    • Bombillo1

      Great. Approximately the same percentage of water that remains for Cape Town.

    • hermit crab

      Hmm you might be better than our Cachuma! It’s a close race!

  • March Miracle (SMX)

    February Futility is coming. Hope you like watching the Winter Olympics with unseasonable warmth and Santa Anas blowing. Don’t worry, though. I still predict a March Miracle. It’s going to happen or I’m moving to colder winter climes.

  • gray whale

    no good ever seems to result when this massive Bering Sea High is around. Like a bad plus/minus; you can’t assign total causality to it but we all suffer when this guy’s on the court.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c26e7b9f6948f3c87789b15dc8a24a676ec564a629a60c3ac4bb291f1da113d0.png

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      I think that high could be our friend with a better jet. It could lead to a train of storms and very wet weater. It is just with the other things in play this year it has not panned out

    • It’s whats of the coast that freaks me out.

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        That high was there last uear too

    • Tuolumne

      Not sure I’d label this the “southern” Sierra but there’s certainly room for personal taste in such decisions. Location of the peaks is the NE boundary of Yosemite National Park at the head of the Return Creek drainage. The park boundary runs right over the top of this massif. The north side of the peaks (foreground) drains down to Upper Twin Lake on the east side. Mt. Lyell is visible on the horizon on the far left in the first image; it’s the high peak that’s white.

      It’s nice to see a Sierra glacier in decent shape, though I’m sure it’s still lost quite a bit of volume over the last 20 years.

  • matt
    • Bombillo1

      Looks like this reconnaissance pilot is going to have a boring next 4 or 5 months. Maybe he can deliver mail or something as a side gig.

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        I see this as they are anticipating something big later this month, and are getting ready to know in advance how much and when.

        • jstrahl

          Later this month? This month has only one day left. I think you meant February, right? 🙂

      • Tuolumne

        This would have been a tough winter for Snowshoe Thompson.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      There certainly seems to be an increase in action on understanding this phenomenon we are so familiar with on the West Coast… I really look forward to hearing more about this.

  • matt
  • SoCalWXwatcher

    Interesting very high-based cumulus with ice crystals/virga streaming from them just below the deck of cirrus clouds moving across SoCal right now. The closest look at precip we get for a while, but it’s way “up there”. LOL.

    2nd pic posted so we can see it from above.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e325b11c922eedfa443d360525d8a2ee7d3c6858d4ff4d8e1a7f40844cfb37b4.jpg

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/49adfa3383b5d5ed8be446a9c8baae35ad5912e6dd404e38c78900bfc9be3ebc.jpg

  • Taz & Storm Master

    am not buying any GFS runs right now in tell it starts too lock on too some in in tell that happens throw them out

    • Rusty Rails

      We’re through the looking glass.

  • Atmospheric_River
    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      When did WeatherWest become story time?

      • Atmospheric_River

        I’m sharing the joy of weather-related storytelling on a weather-related website.

      • Pfirman

        Most of the stuff on here turns out to be fiction anyway.

  • @honzik:disqus @disqus_I3StaIVZHr:disqus that article was a hoot, Charlie you got any pictures by some ultra slim chance? I saw this one and had a chuckle, different era!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/12c90461e094ede54f09550376fdebe688547d959155301184a0757fcf580729.jpg
    View of old ski bowl taken February 2016:
    http://shastaavalanche.org/sites/default/files/fullsizerender_1.jpg
    http://shastaavalanche.org/sites/default/files/img_4300.jpg
    Lots of info related to avalanches, seems like if anyone ever tried to do this again they’d have to make it avalanche proof, and yes that’s possible…

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    A full two weeks out, but the GFS has something coming in around the 14th.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/53bfcc2a43ee534d373f5ff47cacae80614c11a27c6fc8c93590b5f8aa16a6f2.jpg

    • matthew

      Odds are against us getting completely shut out, plus we are still in the rainy season, so I am optimistic even though it is still in fantasy land.

      • Yolo Hoe

        The can will be kicked down the road, but not out of February

        • Dry Bones

          This can will be kicked down the road until the end of February, at which point the road turns to a rutted dirt trail. The can will then be kicked down that trail until the end of March, at which point the trail goes over a cliff. Then we all go over the cliff after the can.

    • Taz & Storm Master

      dont trust the GFS runs right now in tell it can really lock on too some in and keep it that be gone on the 0z run

  • Freddy66

    Gotta love fantasyland hour 384….ooh the anticipation

  • Gondor Forecasting System calls for Sag! And Rohanert Park will answer!

    Handmade gif of past 7x 384hr precip maps showing the intrusion of reality to the Winter Force Fieldinator; a related product created from further evolutions of the Cobra Commander Weather Dominator, more subtle as it uses chemtrails to slowly subvert the atmosphere’s expectations.(deep meme cut there)
    Stupid jokes aside this really is how things get started. GFS gets a hint and we go from there…
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/690048b1bb7dc0274361886be79fb2c60643ab5c13bab519d30f403c944c257b.gif
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9ab441c5cef46789a1aa46433fd8fa145bef7129c7a2ab6c941b87080236e9ad.gif

    • Idaho Native

      It may be fantasy land but god damn at least its something!

      • Big picture paints a lovely scene, a doughnut collapsing like a jelly filled pastry in Homer Simpsons mouth, releasing purple goodness across the coast…

        • Idaho Native

          That was beautiful man…

        • alanstorm

          Purple goodness??
          Barney’s Love is now only given to inmates at Pelican Bay…..
          https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/68e53665304cf9b7480b255eec05301972b21098fee4168fbb85cd4782276c24.png

          • Tuolumne

            Plus Happy Camp, Siskiyou Co. Where “this bud’s for you” takes on a whole different meaning than it does in Fairfield.

            At least a few farmers will be briefly happy.

          • alanstorm

            You’re right. Oregon Border has been hammered pretty good the last few weeks. Smith R at normal winter flows.

            Happy Camp, on the Klamath.
            Stunning country.
            Snuck up there only once.
            Had made it as far
            as Hoopa a couple of times playing gigs, but
            never wanted to drive further out thru that
            hiway 96 gauntlet of cliff memorials!
            It’s a LONG way down to the Trinity River there for sure!

    • Yolo Hoe

      We’ve been waiting for you; Storm Master has lost his nerve for the time being

      • Taz & Storm Master

        if the GFS can keep some in and not drop it on the next run then i be on the train with the GFS but in tell that happens me and the GFS can say nic try fool me once shame on me fool me twice shame on you in other words the GFS credit dos no good here for right now i want too see more agreedment on some in

        • Cap’n

          Fool me three times, call me a model Rider

        • Yolo Hoe

          Fair enough — it’s a weak signal at best at this point — Mammoth Weather Guy Ted Schlaepfer has a good update that discusses some of the perils of hopping on the train at this point — I’m just glad for some crumbs of hope at this point as Sierra snowpack is oh so thin

    • Dry Bones

      Nah. The DHOD will not be so easily dispelled.

  • RunningSprings6250

    Topped out at 58 again today. Lows only in low/mid 40s…a couple records today out of NWS SD

    ..HIGHEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS BROKEN OR TIED ON JAN 30 2018 …

    LOCATION NEW RECORD OLD RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD

    SAN DIEGO 83 82 IN 1984 1875
    BIG BEAR LAKE 63 60 IN 2003 1960

  • RunningSprings6250

    January 2017: 76″ snow / 8″ rain (14 days precip)
    January 2018: 4” snow / 7.15” rain (4 days precip)

  • Nathan
    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      That image is so beautiful, I put it as my desktop background.

      Thank you Nathan!

  • Peavine Violet

    A balmy 69f in Reno on this sunny Spring day. Sorry, Winter’s day. Got confused there for a bit

    • Charlie B

      I just grilled some flank steak down near Windy Hill.

  • alanstorm

    Well, I for one am disappointed Trump’s State of the Union Fantasyland speech mentioned NOTHING of the 18z & the potential Fantasyland pattern-shift for mid Feb…..

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8dde0b5641cf565450be79c81ed3ec5243ae41e2c1d5c7818f7844861c211bb3.gif

    • Cap’n

      He’s a model Rider too

      • alanstorm

        Haha- easy one!

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Yeah, true. At least ours are free, don’t have to get a lawyer and pay that hush up money….

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Make Fantasyland Great Again!

      • alanstorm

        More like Making a Great Land a Fantasy

      • Fantasyland beats Hell.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          With the exception of certain Michael Bolton songs, I would think most anything would beat Hell.

    • jstrahl

      I’d hate to see his idea of “fantasyland.” The storms are probably the likes of Stormy Daniels.

      • alanstorm

        Probably not that great for her either.

      • Are there multiple Daniels?

        • matthew

          Stormy and Jack.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            and Charlie.

          • jstrahl

            Stormy holding Jack.

        • jstrahl

          They’re all projections. 🙂

  • molbiol

    A little behind today but couldn’t help but notice the monsoon flow pattern on the GFS at 228h with very deep SE flow at 500mb extending from the tropics as this blocking pattern fuses with the subtropical ridge over Mexico. There is even a bit of moisture at 500mb that sneaks in toward Socal offshore. Looks like we could see some T-storm action from….oh wait. It is February- not July (what was I thinking?!!). Never mind since there are no tropical systems that could move up nor any moisture or convection over Mexico…or is there…..?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fc7cb0a771972665c562e71645b29a8fc14a6f0fc0b2b52d551a1e3d68f44712.png

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/feeed8d6ef82725f81152d60688ca34558b72d0a822c6776a2cf3b75bb20deee.png

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      I seem to recall back in either January or February 2015 models were hinting at a possible E Pacific Tropical Storm. It didn’t verify, but it was weird seeing that on a model output in the middle of Winter. This comes in a close 2nd.

      • molbiol

        I think it was a strong tropical wave that almost got its act together but not quite before getting sheared apart…

      • When in Rome….

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          Haven’t been there since August of 2002. It was reminiscent of “Little Italy” in Manhattan, but with less Italians.

          • I was in a rain shower that carried dust over from the Sahara and experienced being a passenger in a taxi who was playing chicken with a motorcycle in the median of a four lane road. Never ever bribe the Swiss Guard

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            I was in a tour bus headed for Florence. We had just gotten underway heading out of Rome, when the bus grinded the side of a parked car. I was looking out the window watching this take place right below me as the car’s mirror sheared off and shattered, the trim was stripped off & paint was traded between the bus and the car. The driver never stopped. We just kept on our way.

            You could not pay me to drive a car over there. No wonder so many of them drive Vespas.

          • molbiol

            Socal Los Angeles traffic is not exactly above par either

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            I deal with SoCal traffic everyday. Drivers here are not too bright. Over there, they are crazy.

          • molbiol

            In Europe it is organized intelligent chaos. Here in Socal, we are just plain stupid

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            What I saw over there may be considered “intelligent chaos”, but the same thing over here is called “hit & run”. Fortunately my relatives over there live in a pleasant, quaint town away from all that madness/intelligent chaos. I thought they drove like madmen over there until I visited my wife’s family in the Philippines. The driving habits over there are in a league of their own.

  • matt
    • alanstorm

      Good job, Matt.
      & there’s that orange Alien craft again.
      Tell them to do something about that RIDGE

      • Atmospheric_River

        What if the ALIEN CRAFT is causing the ridge?!!

        • alanstorm

          You’de think they would want to keep their
          petri-dish wet & healthy.

          But then again, struggle makes stronger DNA, so….
          Lots of world’s to seed out there.