Record Southern California dry streak to end abruptly with strong storm; serious flood risk near Thomas Fire

Filed in Uncategorized by on January 7, 2018 5,505 Comments

Record SoCal dry streak February 2017 – January 2018

March-December was the record driest such period across most of Southern California, and drier than average across nearly all of California. (West Wide Drought Tracker)

As many Southern Californians are acutely aware, it has barely rained at all in this part of the state since February 2017. Despite the fact that winter 2016-2017 was fairly wet overall in SoCal (and near-record wet further to the north), the Pacific moisture stream shut off pretty abruptly by March–and the rains have yet to return to now-parched Southern California. In fact, the past ~300 days have been the driest such period on record across most of Southern California–including in Los Angeles proper, where the 0.69 inches of accumulated precipitation over that interval shattered the previous March-December record of 1.24 inches. Amidst this record dry spell, widespread (and late-season) record warm conditions have been reported–a combination that helped cause California’s most destructive fire season on record (the Thomas Fire, now California’s largest wildfire in modern history, is still not yet 100% contained as of January 7). As discussed in my last post, the cause of these record dry and warm conditions in SoCal has been the persistence (once again) of an unusually strong ridge of high pressure near the West Coast.

 

Strong storm to bring heavy rain, strong wind, thunderstorm risk to much of California

The incoming event will coincide with impressive storm-scale dynamics. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Well, I have some good news (for most folks) and some bad news (for anyone living near the numerous recent wildfire burn scars in the state): rain will finally be returning, in fairly dramatic fashion, over the next 24 hours to the entire state. An impressively strong storm system is currently taking shape off the California coast, fueled by a burst of jet stream energy that has finally broken through the persistent West Coast ridge. There had been some uncertainty regarding whether the jet energy would “phase” optimally with a low pressure system, but models have come into unanimous agreement that everything is indeed coming together for a major storm across all of central and southern California over the next 48 hours.

The developing storm will share several characteristics of historical systems that have tended to bring significant impacts to all areas, not just the orographically-favored coastal mountains that sometimes “steal” the lion’s share of winter precipitation at the expense of downwind rain-shadowed valleys.

A strong, well-positioned jet streak will generate favorable conditions for intense rain rates and possibly thunderstorms across SoCal. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

The first: this system is developing/strengthening close to the coast, with a sub-1000mb surface low due west of San Francisco by Monday morning. Additionally, this surface low will be associated with a fairly strong, cyclonically-curved jet streak over SoCal–favoring strong upward vertical motion ahead of/along the cold front. A modest atmospheric river will be associated with this storm system, although it’s actually the storm-scale dynamics that are more impressive than the moisture tap in this instance. Finally, there will be relatively cold air aloft behind the front–creating a convectively unstable atmosphere that will likely be conducive to  high rain rates near the front and probably at least a few embedded thunderstorms. There’s even a slight chance of some strong-to-severe cells along the cold front, which could bring locally torrential rainfall in a few locations.

In addition to widespread significant/heavy rainfall, winds could become quite strong and gusty across some coastal areas, especially between San Francisco and Los Angeles. Winds may be strong enough to cause some damage in these areas, though this will probably not be an exceptional wind storm unless the surface low deepens considerably more than expected. Still, this will represent the first major windstorm in many coastal areas in at least a year.

Significant mountain snowfall can be expected with this storm, though as has been the trend in recent years snow levels will be relatively high during the bulk of precipitation. Thus, multiple feet of snow will likely fall above 7000-8000 feet but possibly only a few inches below these high elevation regions.

 

High risk of serious flash flooding, debris flows, and mudslides near Thomas Fire

While under normal circumstances this storm system would be a largely positive development–bringing much-needed water to parched Southern California–very recent severe wildfire activity will present a high risk of serious, perhaps life-threatening conditions in some places. The region of greatest concern is the region within and near the Thomas Fire burn scar in Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties. The region burned by this wildfire is enormous (around 275,000 acres, or 425 square miles) and extends across vast tracts of wilderness, agricultural lands, and even some urban areas on the margins of Santa Barbara, Ventura, Santa Paula, and Ojai. The confluence of very high burn intensity on the steep slopes above the Ojai Valley, plus a substantial human population in the town of Ojai itself, presents an especially high level of concern. But even areas miles away from the primary burn areas many see significant flood-related impacts from this intense storm event.

Why are the risks near wildfire burn scars so much higher than in other areas? In many cases, recent fires in California have burned very intensely and at extremely high temperatures due to record-dry vegetation and ambient weather conditions. In these patches of particularly high burn intensity, nearly all vegetation was consumed by fire–leaving steep slopes completely devoid of soil-anchoring vegetation, and even modifying the underlying soils in a manner that creates a largely impermeable, waxy layer. This means that rainfall has a very hard time soaking into the ground–and is instead forced to immediately flow downhill as nearly instantaneous runoff. When precipitation intensity exceeds a certain threshold (sometimes as low as 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour, which would normally be well within the capacity of local rivers and streams), rapid flash flooding can result when huge volumes of runoff enter stream channels.

Widespread heavy precipitation is expected across coastal California Mon-Tues. Locally 4-6+ inches is possible near Thomas Fire burn scar. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Flash flooding is not the only risk, however. Wildfires can also produce vast amounts of ash –which, given high enough rainfall intensity, can accumulate within drainage channels to form an incredibly heavy, debris-laden, wet cement-like slurry known as a debris flow. These flows behave like a hybrid mudslide/flash flood (not unlike a volcanic “lahar”)–and can be incredibly fast-moving and destructive (click here for a visual). More traditional mudslides and/or landslides are also possible, but it’s debris flows that arguably pose the most unique and substantial threat in the wake of wildfires.

Due to the particular trajectory of this storm, and the naturally steep topography of the Transverse Ranges, areas near/within the Thomas Fire burn scar will be at very high risk during the period of peak rainfall intensity late Monday night. But other recent wildfire burn regions in California will also be at elevated risk of flash flooding and debris flows during this event–particularly the Tubbs Fire scar in the North Bay. Most other parts of the state not affected by recent wildfires will fare just fine, outside of some localized urban flooding. But make no mistake: if you live near where the Thomas Fire has burned in recent weeks, this is a storm to take very seriously indeed.

 

Medium term outlook: substantial drying once again, but may become wet again soon

For Southern California, at least, the Monday-Tuesday storm will be quite strong but equally quick-hitting: the remainder of the next 10 days look quite dry. Things will dry out later this week in NorCal, too, though there may still be occasional light rain across the far north. Out beyond 10 days, there are hints that a more active pattern may re-emerge (especially across the northern part of the state, but perhaps further south as well). At the very least, it does appear that the multi-month streak of seemingly unbreakable Southern California high pressure is over, at least for a little while. Stay tuned!

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  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

    Really coming down now with some wind too (13. Mph). Over performing at 0.17 and a rain rate now of 0.49 an hour. Radar is not showing what is falling.

    • Taz & Storm Master

      ghost rain

  • Pfirman

    Interesting tweet tiff between Cliff and Dan up on the verge.

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    Just starting to rain, but it will have to sage a bit South to really get going here.

  • Cap’n

    Solid rain here with .6″ in the gauge and snow starting to mix in. Still 36F. Snowing on the summit.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/47146eb877439ec24477ecc1336de7a343fd796618dc023cfa7a254766056854.png

    • AlTahoe

      Dam .6″ would have been 4″ of snow easy for you. Hopefully all of the moisture doesn’t outrun the cold air. Still 44F down here and not a drop of rain yet.

      • Cap’n

        Yeah that’s why I posted that infamous line from NOAA earlier. I’m definitely feeling like Sugie will pull in a solid 8-12″ up top, down here who knows. It’s trying hard to snow. Radar showing nada dipping your way yet.

    • Yolo Hoe

      Two waves of precipitation today thus far in far southwest Davis, each dropping 0.01” — barometer 29.99 and rising with breeze from WSW — 54F

      • Pfirman

        Prespititation.

        • alanstorm

          We need more participation from the precipitation

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Showing .1” and 37 on the other end of town.

      • Cap’n

        Leaving the Rec Center earlier it was a moderate rain, harder passing 89, pouring here with snow mixing in. The difference of a few miles in Truckee/Tahoe.

    • alanstorm

      Cap’n, I’m liking our chances for some convective showers tonight with this cold air coming in at our latitude.
      We have a HUGE deficit to make up. Every drop counts!
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d7220758b14e7cd4b5d812d3bbcf42c190e4613180b721127483a047b5562c3d.jpg

      • Cap’n

        Right on! All blue over on me radar but still rain. The way it has been going, I’m just stoked to be getting some action. And though nothing big showing up in the next 3-5 days, at least we’ve got some little systems lining up.

        • SloTruckeeJohn

          Looks like a rain/snow mix on the airport webcam, which is probably my favarite camera during a good storm.

          • Cap’n

            That’s a good one, especially when it pans to the light. Maybe it’s snowing here now I’ll check. Magnify Eye has a bunch of good cams too. When I worked for the school district I would watch them all when I thought we might get a snow day.

            http://www.magnifeye.com/webcams.php

    • Juggernaut

      Where are you located and what elevation?

      • Cap’n

        West End of Donner Lake 5,900ft.

  • Telegraph Hill

    Greeting from rainy Seattle! It doesn’t take long to starting missing the sunny climate of California. This strong cell moved in last night at bed time, on radar it’s quite the Storm Monster bearing down directly on us!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d372c51d4693803c62ce2fa5b4f6dd90cc45fbe084c25cfd02786e40218b70d4.jpg

    Amazing what a difference 800 miles north makes for climate – the difference between the storm door being stuck closed or stuck open. Glad it’s open for the entire west coast this week – enjoy!

    • weathergeek100

      Not open for the entire West Coast. The cold front comes to a screeching halt at about the Golden Gate Bridge. Just’s some spotty drizzle to the south of that.

  • AlTahoe

    Wow that is some AR depicted for the North Coast and Oregon next Saturday and Sunday.

    • matthew

      Just thinking the same thing. In the meantime we are getting a decent rain right now. No snow yet but at least we have water falling.

      • alanstorm

        My trust level is at an all time low right now in anything past 4 days…
        They get the timing right, but the latitudes wrong.
        Need CA Bullseyes

        • matthew

          If it happens then your water problems are over for the year.

          • alanstorm

            Would be nice.
            Mendocino/Lake counties are currently in dire straits with the YTD precip totals so far.
            We’d need at least 40″ by spring to meet the seasonal average!

            It’s not looking likely unless it starts raining constantly

      • TahoeCard

        Snowing in Homewood

        • matthew

          Cool. I am probably an hour behind you.

    • Pfirman

      You can do the reverse psychology but the present storm still knows you are donut hole Al.

  • Charlie B

    Rain in Reno, as Shane noted earlier. My attention was diverted by some braised short ribs….

    • alanstorm

      Rane?

      • matthew

        That would be Mr. Shitter to you.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    its funny the sky will clear this about when the sun went down now its raining

  • Taz & Storm Master

    0.11 so far

    • janky

      .28”

    • Flyin_Pig

      Just enough to wet the ground down the hill from you in Knights Ferry. Hopefully we’ll get some more but for now the rain has stopped.

    • Admode (Susanville)

      .75 here

  • cthenn

    Looks like the storm reorganized over the mountains. Still a pile of trash over the Bay Area, but at least on radar it looks pretty solid over the mountains. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f55f7c084dc3d6277db30896958934ecff6ca59de56a9c6f699a5e7ac5ce9a28.jpg

  • jstrahl

    .10 inches so far in central Berkeley, 10 times as much as the previous event.:-)

    This is speculative, but that’s sometimes how things get figured out. In physics, when a calculation is made regarding the motion of a body along a given surface, the coefficient of friction between the two materials has to be known . Such coefficients cannot be theoretically calculated they have to be determined via empirical measurements, repeated experiments. In climate science, a certain amount of energy would be required to move a high pressure dome or make some sort of impact on it. This required knowing the friction between the atmosphere and the earth’s surface. I wonder if it’s possible that the planet’s warming and the changing composition of the atmosphere have changed that coefficient, while models are still using old values, and this may make them inaccurate in that they underestimate the resiliency of high pressure ridges, concluding that such ridges would be moved by the available energy being thrown at them, while the actual events do not bring such results. Hence, models show storms in the long range in the thinking that the ridges will be dislodged, but this repeatedly fails to materialize.

    • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      O.32 here thus far. Got lucky with the front seemingly stalling over the South Bay.

    • Sokafriend

      I wonder, too. Thank you for opening this discussion.

  • Atmospheric_River

    Allow me to steal a line from Storm Master when I say that the 00z was a grate run.

    • matthew

      For everyone north of around Santa Cruz.

      • alanstorm

        Which is grate, because that includes Tahoe.
        My buddy who lives for snowsports is in a wierd depression right now

        • Atmospheric_River

          By the way, a long duration AR appears to hit the far northern part of CA during the Jan 27-29th timeframe.

        • matthew

          I was just giving a nod to our friends in New Atacama.

          • Emerald

            The Sokalihari Desert, you could call it

          • Atmospheric_River

            The Kalahari isn’t quite a desert; it’s actually a savanna and has a wet and dry season. But the way things are going in SoCal, eventually it will become drier than the Kalahari.

    • jstrahl

      Well, in terms of what “grate” now means, i.e. we’ll take it. Does have something for SoCal last day of the month. Even re NorCal, consistency only in Far NorCal, and events appear to be quite compact. moving around, nothing remotely like a state-wide or even half-state-wide storm. And this is mostly days if not longer ahead, we know how today’s event was over-predicted. even a couple of days ago. But hopefully at least this happens.

  • Chow

    Snow in the forecast every day for the next week at the local sley hill…5,000′ and 16 miles inland from Humboldt bay.

    • Admode (Susanville)

      Where exactly?

      • Chow

        Horse mountain, above Berry summit between Arcata and Willow Creek.

        • Admode (Susanville)

          I know it. Cool spot. I don’t recall any structures up there…

          • Chow
          • Charlie B

            There used to be a website about lost California ski areas. I had heard about an area near Eureka but I could never find it. Now I have. Thanks. I just googled Horse Mountain and found a hydrology study from 1966 about the viability of a ski area there. Can’t link now but very interesting. In a few seasons they had a lot of snow…over 10 feet on the ground. I suspect it is different now…

          • Bombillo1

            Wow “even in the 40’s and 50’s they were aware of the receding snow line”. The ski operations there were the first to suffer from warming conditions.

  • Cap’n

    Holy me cows it’s snowing and snowing hard. I’d almost forgotten what it looked like. Now if it can just do this for several hours…

    • SloTruckeeJohn

      Bitchin. Also looks like Al’s Donut hole is getting wet.

      • AlTahoe

        We had heavy rain and now it is chunky snow/rain. Temp is down to 38F

    • Patrick from Stockton

      hope so. And here’s hoping that the snow levels keep dropping throughout the night and continue on tomorrow

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      Capn I am glad to hear that. I wss watching the snow fall on radar in the Sierras.i hope it continues

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    NWS said 1 in 100 sets may approach 55 feet in favored locations!

    • Nathan

      Where at?

    • Waves?

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        Yes off the Bay Area Coast

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    .14 here to wet the plants. We got double that in a September storm

  • Taz & Storm Master

    Short Term Forecast
    National Weather Service Eureka CA
    921 PM PST THU JAN 18 2018

    CAZ101>106-190715-
    Southwestern Humboldt-Northern Humboldt Coast-Del Norte
    Interior-Southern Humboldt Interior-Northern Humboldt
    Interior-Coastal Del Norte-
    921 PM PST THU JAN 18 2018

    .NOW…

    At 915 PM PST, trained weather spotters have reported multiple
    occurrences of small hail covering roadways causing slick conditions.
    Reports have been coming in from the Eureka and Crescent City areas.
    The conditions for these small hail showers are occurring from South
    of Fortuna over the coastal plain to North of Crescent City.

    Locations impacted include…
    Eureka, Arcata, Crescent City, Orick, Honeydew, Klamath, Fortuna,
    Rio Dell, Trinidad, Petrolia, Myers Flat, Smith River, McKinleyville.

    • alanstorm

      There’s been LIGHTNING activity off of the Cape Mendocino coast all this this afternoon, cells coming ashore.
      The coast from Humboldt all the way up into Oregon under a HIGH SURF ADVISORY WITH
      LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 27 FEET. (!!!)
      Advising ships to stay in port.
      Humboldt Bay has a huge harbor, & that entrance has a history of big shipwrecks

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    Steady light and some moderate showers in Oakdale

    • Bombillo1

      Good! Take a long slow drink..

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        Lol. Just got home. About .2 in Gustine. Just got done raining

        • Bombillo1

          Looks like you took care of the drinking part before the water arrived.

  • Cap’n
  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Euro brings sea level snow within 7 days to the North Coast and shows lots of pow for us skiers

    • Patrick from Stockton

      0z GFS is excellent for Norcal also. Systems throughout the entire run

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        00z looks great for the Sierras. I hope the GFS pans out long term.for once

  • Bombillo1

    Popcorn being served up, smothered in fake butter and salt, theater style. Ready for consumption in the Bay Area to the Sierras starting 4:00 AM to 12 noon. As always, beverages are an additional charge.

    http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/west/nhem/weus/rb.html

  • Fairweathercactus

    if the government gets shut down again are they going to pull a lot of the maps offline again?

    • Bombillo1

      No. But anyone without the right surname is going to get the John Colter 100 meter head start.

  • Nathan

    Oh man everyone watch the waves video in the Tweets

  • MakeSoCalWetAgain (SMX)

    Showers in Santa Maria right now.

  • Bombillo1

    The pruning shears at work on the next system. Just once can the 72 hr rain progs be correct?

    • Yolo Hoe

      Unlikely — but remember the joy last year of consistent meeting and exceeding forecast expectations?

      This year we stagger towards March in hopes the seasonal instability can unblock the tap — Yolo appears to be looking at a 60 – 70% of average WY, and that’s assuming something can indeed shake loose in March.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    0.77″ of rain here over night not bad

  • Taz & Storm Master

    all so for now on am going to be looking at the 0z and 12z runs for now on wish are the main models

    • RunningSprings6250

      Good luck with that….

  • AlTahoe

    Another fail storm. We ended up with 1″ of snow exactly. I don’t think it will be enough to open the lower mountain runs lol
    Even the Nws was off by 300% for my area like I said they would be https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b916e5c9bbdf1ab290eae704caf23a7586791c7b3b56dfdc2989b606943f3514.jpg

    • Bartshe

      It’s grim up and down the Sierra and overall a repeat of ’15.

      • AlTahoe

        I had way more snow but less rain during the 2014-2015 winter. Lol

    • matthew

      GFS pretty much nailed it for my neighborhood (see above). Beat my expectations.

    • weathergeek100

      Well, at least other places in/around Tahoe got the forecasted totals so that’s good.

      Not sure what’s going on with your neighborhood. Are you in a very shadowed location?

      • AlTahoe

        Nope storm was to warm to start so we got heavy rain and then when it switched over to snow the storm was over. Even Truckee only got 3″ of snow.

  • Rusty Rails

    It’s a shame reality has hit hard yet again with this current system as it’s the first truly winter feeling one of the season here in Santa Cruz despite the lack of dynamics. Actual cool temps with the precip rather than a warm humid pall. The smells of fireplaces at work and brine from the excellent swell mixing like sweet winter perfume swirled around by a breeze. All this despite me being able to enjoy gloriously sunny shorts weather down in Salinas early afternoon yesterday while a cool drizzle was already setting up here at the north end of the bay.

  • Cap’n
    • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

      Better start digging that tunnel to your cabin.

  • matthew

    Finally looking like winter. 0.5″ rain and 4.25″ snow overnight.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f01c5cd90f953dfd28e0901e290333d881407e57f88adb0b1a08ac0aacaa62d5.jpg

    • Cap’n

      Close totals. I was at .6″ of rain. Now if we could just get 20 or 30 more 5″ snows.

      • matthew

        I just looked at last year’s totals. To date I had 101″ snow and 24″ rain. This year it is 12″ snow and 6.8″ rain. Last year feels like a dream at this point.

        • Cap’n

          You’re beating me with snow but for some reason I have quite a bit more rain. Probably the November storms a lot of them sat over here and never really pushed over. Yeah last January I got close to 180″ of snow. In my opinion the lower our expectations going forward for this winter the better.

        • AlTahoe

          I am at 2.5″ of snow and 8.05″ of rain this winter. The November storm gave us 6.5″ of that rain total.

      • Thunderstorm

        The Sunday storm will surprise. Straight out blizzard and everyone stuck. Jet has been roaring over Japan with cold polar air for the last 4 days. Polar jet coming south.

    • TahoeCard

      6″ Homewood – lake level

  • Howard Goodman

    No snow here just 2.85 inches of rain last night ,season total 39.48 last year already had 100 inches

  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

    My location is now at 3.11 for January with 12 days to go. The average for the month is 2.99. I think that we need to reset expectations and accept that Jan-Mar is most likely not going to makeup for Oct-Dec. This will make for happier Bay Area folks. Otherwise, we will look at average to slightly above average months as abysmal.

    I should mention that this only applies to the Bay Area as I know Southern California and the Sierras are in dire straights.

    • Hardcort

      Weather is out of my control. I set my expectations high and it’s just a big oh well if it doesn’t come to pass. It’s always a nice day for something

      • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

        Great outlook!

      • matthew

        “It’s always a nice day for something”

        Worth repeating.

    • AlTahoe

      We don’t even have 1″ of precip for January here in south lake tahoe.
      Two of our wettest months have basically been shutouts

  • tomocean
  • Chris

    This is for Morgan Hill (just south of San Jose)

    As of 8:00am 1/19/2018

    Today .25
    Record 1.89 in 1999
    Month 3.78
    Year 7.59

  • Robin White

    Ended up with just under half an inch for a storm total in Pacific Grove. Meager but a lot more than forecast.

  • weathergeek100
    • Chris

      But it IS next year!!! ?

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      I think that’s what the 12z GFS said to the 00z from last night too…

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      I normally don’t follow this climate map, but the way the GFS looks with an ugly ridge positioned in the worst possible place, I believe it.

  • inclinejj

    Pacifica 42 degrees for the low. .74 in the rain bucket!

  • AlTahoe
    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Just head an ad on the radio with Squaw’s favorite son Jonny Moseley “You may have just heard Squaw got dumped on overnight…” Then on comes the local KPIX morning weather person “..the Lake Tahoe area received several inches of new snow overnight.” I think this is one of those years we redefine what a “Sierra dumpage” is….if we’re calling a several inches an overnight dump.

      • AlTahoe

        crappy part is it looked liked we could get 12-24″ at lake level and 3-4′ up high which would have saved this ski season as little as 5 days ago.

        • TahoeCard

          Not sure where you ever saw that except in fantasyland. BA’s forecast was never much above one foot at lake level and 2 feet up top.

          • Cap’n

            The models, always the models.

    • matthew

      It has turned into a spectacular Sierra bluebird day. Wife was up at dawn to head for Northstar – should have a skis-on-the-snow report in a few hours.

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/22ddcaa900b5f13e8deb397ca3c0bbfc26bcee6354f4c0e0f6f84a9380a7760d.jpg

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        Enjoy it! Looks like one of those days you can get fresh tracks but not spending hours digging out the car to get to the mountain.

    • Keiko the Sleddog (Mammoth)

      Currently still snowing here in town and I have about 2-3″ on the deck at the house, so I expect that mammoth number to come up a little bit, at least if the wind doesn’t strip it all away.

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    Looks like we might see the death ridge reproduce in the east pacific. If the CFS weeklies are right, for February we will see the Eastern Pacific death ridge with the Northeast Atlantic trough pattern in the east. Same as December

    • This is a really nice summary of the complexity of projecting future changes in precipitation. If you take a look at the maps therein, you can see that California’s often right on the margin of positive and negative changes. But that doesn’t mean that we aren’t headed for big changes–I’ll have more to say on that front in a few months when our current work is further through the review process.

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        Thanks for that Daniel. I think for California he mentions what we already have talked about. More precip and less snow. This state needs to work with its water infrastructure to prepare for this

    • Unbiased Observer

      Looks like it’s time to move to the Sahara….

  • A miracle happened last night. Water fell from the sky.

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    IDK what this all means. But it goes to show how the models fail
    https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/954337938606837760

    • Sumster

      It means it sucks for us as usual. Models never seems to “whiff” in a good way, This season is a total bust.

    • jstrahl

      A bit scary that a meteorologist doesn’t know how to spell Bering. OK, that’s an aside, but this is very interesting in that Ventrice a few days ago was making all sorts of predictions of a pattern change based upon the models.

  • Los Padres NF/ Piñon Pines

    Unbelievable !! All PoPs for my location and surrounding areas have been cut in half or more in the coarse of the past 7 hours. Just pathetic. Literally something forecasted less then 10 hours out can’t be trusted. Supposed to be snow almost all day up here as of 2am, woke up and Its now a small chance of rain later in the afternoon…

  • Unbiased Observer

    Screw this crap, take me back to 90’s.