2017 hottest summer in California history; Cut-off low may bring widespread thunderstorms

Filed in Uncategorized by on September 9, 2017 2,875 Comments

Overview of recent all-time record California heat

2017 was the warmest (or near-warmest) summer on record over most of the Western U.S. (NOAA/NCDC)

2017 brought extraordinary summer heat to California. While record-breaking early-season heatwaves largely spared the immediate coastal areas (but brought endless weeks of searing triple-digit heat to interior areas), extreme temperatures extended all the way to the beaches over the past couple of weeks.

The late summer and early autumn months are traditionally warmest of the year in coastal California, as the marine layer tends to become suppressed and offshore winds occasionally allow hotter air to encroach from the east. But the late August and early September heatwave that California just endured was on an entirely different level than those historically experienced–breaking (and, in many cases, shattering) temperature records of all kinds. Countless daily (and monthly) temperature records were set statewide, and this heatwave continued the already record-breaking streak of 100+ degree days across much of the Central Valley. Overnight temperatures stayed well above average daytime highs in many places, and new all-time “warmest minimum” records were set. Quite a few coastal or near-coastal California cities matched or exceeded their all-time temperature records for any month–an impressive list that spans from the North Coast (Eureka) to the central coast (San Luis Obispo) and apparently even includes (amazingly) the Farallon Islands in the midst of California’s cold oceanic upwelling zone. Easily the most amazing statistic during this extraordinary event was the fall of downtown San Francisco’s all-time temperature record, where the observed 106 degrees surged past the previous hottest temperature (103) in 147 years of record keeping.

It might not be a surprise, therefore, that summer 2017 was officially California’s hottest on record (and much of the Labor Day heatwave actually fell out outside of the formal June-August definition of “summer”). In fact, 2017 broke (by a considerable margin) the previous record set…just last year, in 2016. Indeed, this year once again puts an exclamation point on a sustained, long-term warming trend over the past century in California. Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme heatwaves is one of the clearest hallmarks of our warming climate, and it’s likely that “extreme” temperatures like those experienced this summer will become fairly routine in just a few decades.

California has experienced a sustained long-term warming trend in summer, and 2017 was the warmest season on record. (NOAA/NCDC)

 

Unusually widespread thunderstorm outbreak possible across California

An offshore cut-off low will be in a favorable position to produce relatively widespread thunderstorm activity. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

A slow-moving cut-off low pressure system is currently setting up shop off the Southern California coast, and has the potential to bring some very active weather to certain parts of the state over the next 5 days. Mountain and desert thunderstorms have already been quite active over the past few days, but beginning on Sunday convective development is likely much closer to (and perhaps including) the coast. In fact, convective parameters for late tomorrow afternoon for much of Southern California and the Central Coast are quite impressive, with able mid-level instability, sufficient column water vapor, and even some large-scale ascent forced by diffluent flow east of the offshore low.

With all of these ingredients in place, numerous thunderstorms will likely develop over the mountains of Southern California tomorrow afternoon, at least a handful of which will sustain themselves as they move east to west over the coastal plain and even offshore. At least a few of these storms may be quite strong (or even severe), bringing intense downpours along with possible hail and gusty winds. This, tomorrow could be a pretty active weather day even in places that rarely see this kind of vigorous thunderstorm activity.

An offshore jet streak will provide dynamical support for thunderstorms over the SoCal Bight on Sunday. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

There is at least a modest risk of flash flooding in interior areas hit by strong storms, and some localized issues could even occur outside of the mountains. It’s actually possible that thunderstorms may be more widespread tomorrow across portions of SoCal (including Los Angeles County) than they were during the recent “Lidia” tropical remnant event. (On a related note, if you haven’t checked out this video showing extraordinary webcam footage of the highly localized but quite damaging Santa Barbara microburst last week, you really should. Also, this one.).

On Monday and Tuesday, the thunderstorm threat will shift northward to encompass most of the rest of California–even including the Bay Area and Central Valley.

The GFS is showing fairly widespread precipitation accumulations over most of California over the next 5 days. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Scattered thunderstorms may ultimately occur uniformly over much of NorCal as moisture and instability will be present virtually everywhere. This sort of synoptic set-up–with a fairly deep offshore cut-off low and modest amounts of late monsoonal moisture–is reminiscent of the sort of pattern that has historically caused spectacular early autumn lightning displays over parts of California. Hopefully, this event will be associated with enough wetting rainfall to avoid numerous wildfire strikes, but given the time of year and the antecedent heat/dryness, this event will probably pose a significant fire weather threat.

Later next week, the cut-off low will finally move inland and perhaps bring a final round of isolated showers and thunderstorms to a fairly broad area (perhaps even the coast), though coverage and intensity should be less than earlier in the week. After that, quieter weather conditions will likely return.

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  • Taz & Storm Master
    • SacWx

      Looks like a gulf of Alaska monster dropping down! Too bad it’s hour 384.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Is it the dam? Or the spillway? This video throws me off on the description.

      • I heard there was a crack in the Dam but not sure.

      • Nathan

        I don’t think the dam has “burst” yet as per reports. That video looks like normal spillway spillage, but with severe uncontrollable headcutting towards the dam. Can see why the are evacuating.

    • Good grief.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
    • Beth_ElDoradoHills

      Snopack seems low when compared to the normal Fall average

      • Not really. It seems normal to a bit above normal in many places. (I’ve backpacked in the Sierra for, well, uh, this year is the 25th anniversary of my 25th year of backpacking. πŸ˜‰

        It isn’t too unusual to start getting some occasional flurries that might come down to pass level in September.

        • Beth_ElDoradoHills

          as long as I have been backpacking in ca the average Fall snowpack has been anywhere between 18 and 36 inches of snow fall

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            Uhh it’s the first day of fall not December 22

          • jstrahl

            Average during Fall, or average during the first day of Fall?

          • Beth_ElDoradoHills

            average snow Fall

          • But not by the first day of autumn! πŸ˜‰

        • Cap’n

          Did you do a celebratory loop somewhere cool for your 25th this year?

          • Read carefully. πŸ˜‰

            It was the 25th anniversary… of my 25th year of backpacking.

            Yeah, that long.

            We did spend about 9 days β€” a group of fellow photographers and I β€” at a somewhat remote location in the John Muir Wilderness.

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/06c81829dff4826f15681e487826933f9ccbff2e9506d507bb46bfff4fb24ea8.jpg

          • Cap’n

            Haha I knew what you meant; your 25th year of backpacking! Good seeing you post, I love your photos. I want to guess where that is but it’s better to not. I finally spent 7 days in the backcountry this summer, it had been a while. Backpacking is how I fell in love with the Sierra, I need to make it a point to get out there more.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            I believe he is saying that he has been backpacking for 50 years!

          • We have a winner! πŸ™‚

            First backpack trip was in the 1960s, believe it or not. I confess thatI cover ground a bit slower now, but I crossed a 12,000+’ pass to get to where I made this photograph. πŸ™‚

          • Cap’n

            Ahhhhhh got it, on my third reread…

    • Nathan

      Holy cow!

    • cthenn

      Wow just drove over Sonora Pass last Sunday. Glad it wasn’t this weekend!

    • Dan the Weatherman

      Are these current pics, or are these from last winter?

      • Tuolumne

        Looks like current pics. The snow is pretty shallow – just inches.

  • tomocean
    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Oh my!

    • alanstorm

      Today really had some trippy clouds.
      It’s was totally Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds

  • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

    Did y’all see what the GFS is showing during the first week of October? Around the 4th-6th timeframe? Showing a dip in the jet stream off the west coast with a ridge out over the North Pacific bear the Aleutians pumping up a Cold core LP system on the Aleutian ridge’s eastern flank. Also pulling unseasonably cold air down from the Arctic into the GOA due to the upper-level winds (250mb) moving in a northerly fashion at about 100-120 Kt.

    If this scenario were to come to fruition: it would be a very dynamic storm system to affect the northern 2/3rds of the state with low snow levels, propabably quite a few thunderstorms, and some early season frost and brisk temperatures as that cold air dives down from the GOA..

    The GFS is also showing a strong extension of the jet stream with a consolidated look right towards the end of the GFS run, but that is fantasy land and can’t be trusted, but hopefully it’s a sign of things to come!

    I’ve already got a feeling October is gonna be an active month for weather, with of course a lull somewhere in the month and a week long heatwave probably, but overall I think October is going to come with plenty of surprises other than some tricks and treats for Halloween! Here’s some graphics to illustrate the pattern change I talking about towards the end of the first week of October.. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/703b193267da69ab7788faf2d74311e00dd5328e2e5255ca27949921e752081d.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a93985c42f040367094f402cff6bde6b39628e69ec7326dabfbf622601a0a868.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a835fea5005b2b2d3c1b97392c348646084774215808088e139f7308b6d6119a.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7df795062e6594d87a742f4cf264ac30b02dfb9062e8d2664714a398e2bb81ae.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bc03fb7a2ef842322589e8cd02fa1147a4d7864b854d5a6ebb99c2c5a472e8e6.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2bf7eeb1d9356533fb10f8a63f47470c0441c431fdb4429cdb09fc3c89a09675.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1794779ee7cdcb7f485588e1d253ecf467de36607a6db8fefa50f9e6a39d9ac7.png

    • fun to speculate, even this far out in advance of reality

      • Pfirman

        So a spell of heat and a spell of lull and then half a month of surprises? I’m down.

  • Cap’n
    • DayHoe Herald

      Doesn’t get any better than that

    • annette johnson

      Rode from your house into scenery like that? Dude, your are blessed. Stuff like that can turn a bad day into a good one real quick ?

      • Cap’n

        Yeah it’s the golden ticket, I try to stay in appreciation and not lose it. I’d love to be a home owner someday which will never happen for me up here I’m not in the bracket. I’m planning to ride this out as long as I can!

        • Bombillo1

          I’ll bet there hasn’t been a “home owner” on that trail, ever.

    • Pfirman

      As a fellow Long Beach guy I am proud that you make so much of your relocation. Snoop Dog sniffed when you said thigh burner and I have to confess all I could think of was….well….cord something.

      • Cap’n

        I don’t know what that last sentence means but I like it Pfirman, I like it. I read it three times looking for whatever it is I’m missing. I’m missing something as is usually the case. I even do miss the LB at times it’s in my blood.

        • Pfirman

          I was being extremely circumspect, unlike certain poets we know all too well, not to mention rap legends.

    • gray whale

      so awesome!

  • kalalp

    Read an article today that said since 1894 above average precipitation has occurred in back to back seasons only 15 times. Back to back to back only once. This would be for the Kern River watershed. Last season saw 274% of normal. Above average seasons occur 1/3 of the time whereas below average is 2/3. The big seasons like we just had make up for the years that are short.
    The prediction is for 75% of normal based on historical records.

    • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

      Let’s emphasize the word “normal” when your basing off the historical records, they do help to give you a better idea on what’s to be expected, but when painting the overall picture of what’s to come for our 2017/2018 rain season we need to put into factor the changes in overall climate since back then and also many other factors like: the MJO, PDO, AO, and many other oscillations that have large scale and small scale impacts on California weather indirectly & directly!

      Not to mention ofc the ENSO state and how the current ENSO neutral state will play a role in the upcoming rainy season. It will all largely be connected to the North Pacific’s SST setup during the core months of our rainy season during winter (DJF&M) and what the MJO will be doing.. if My thinking is correct then the current +PDO state is going to help with storm production this season and hopefully there won’t be ridging in the wrong places when the storm train gets going!

      So if we have ENSO neutral conditions along the
      Equator, then the MJO should have larger impacts and be more active right? And the +PDO should help to set-up a good SST gradient between the equators tropical waters and the North Pacific waters.. hence adding more fuel to storms! Hmmmmm ? Am I on to something??

      My GUT-FS predicts widespread 125%> normal precip across the entire state with localized spots 200%> above normal! πŸ™‚ for our water year!! you heard it here first! πŸ˜‰

      • Pfirman

        So glad for the last paragraph. I was about to slam you for a lot of words and alphabetic three letter mumbo jumbo for a guy who slides back into the house on the seat of his pants with his hair on fire from a lightning strike.

        • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

          Hahahhahaha I don’t know whether or not to take that as a compliment? Or?? Lol, but I love your sense of humor it always brightens the mood here on the WW blog even in the darkest of time during the days of the RRR! ?

          By the way: it made sense it my head! Lol ?

          • Sokafriend

            Uh oh this should be rich

          • Pfirman

            Nobody shines a brighter light than you, especially after a front yard bolt.

      • jstrahl

        “..changes in overall climate.” YES, thank you, people forget that, this isn”t just a machine going through the same cycle over and over.

      • Shane Ritter

        However we are not ENSO neutral. A La Nina has formed, there is signs of atmospheric coupling, and all the models are no predicting it to peak between -1c to -1.5c. So that will now have some kind of impact, good or bad. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4fe5e544185b8693d8651d6955417a49e36bfb19b53953497c44afae7ccd5cff.png

        • sezwhom

          Very cold water off Peru now expanding westward. Definite La Nina signature. Question is: how much? I would expect at least, a weak La Nina to possibly Moderate. The latter is our, Bay Area, best opportunity for normal to above rainfall. Based on climate history. CFSv2 is very bullish over Winter on stronger La Nina.

    • Nathan

      >since 1894 above average precipitation has occurred in back to back seasons only 15 times

      That’s not a hugely meaningful statement. “Only 15 times” means thirty years. Since 1894, or about 120 years, or 60 “pairs” of years, 15/60 pairs of years were two wet years in a row. There’s going to be a bunch of “pairs” where a dry followed wet or vice-versa, so even if there are >15 “pairs” of dry following dry, I somewhat doubt it’s an earth shattering amount.

      We live in CA, so it is well known that high-profile rain events generate an outsized % of each year’s rainfall, so there’s huge variance year to year and our wettest years bump up the average, so median rainfall is probably quite a bit lower than the mean, especially in drier areas of the state.

    • Tuolumne

      This kind of phenomenon varies over the length of the state. Year-to-year precipitation varies more towards the south and less towards the north. I suspect the same is true for the difference between the median and the mean precipitation.

      Out of curiosity I did a little analysis of San Francisco’s historical precip numbers (raw data available at http://ggweather.com/sf/monthly.html). For the 168 rainfall seasons from 1849-50 to 2016-17, the mean rainfall was 21.86″ and the median rainfall was 21.21″. 46% of the rainfall seasons were above the mean, but the years that put that number below 50% are all within 3% of the mean so they would have felt like normal years. I actually expected more of a spread in those numbers, but I’m sure you’d find that larger spread farther south in the state.

  • alanstorm

    Dark, threatening skies today over Coverdale today, but not a drop of rain
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ee9c709bd073034e599a35dbfa4f1ac91ec558735b1d87e927355e0ec3d7e5e8.jpg

    • jstrahl

      Excellent photo. I wouldn’t expect rain if i was seeing these clouds, FWIW.

      • alanstorm

        Please essplain.

        • jstrahl

          Lots of blue sky around, and they don’t look like nimbostratus to these eyes.

          • alanstorm

            Hey- happy belated birthday.
            I remember because it’s the same as mine: 9-16

          • jstrahl

            Thanks, and likewise! I took a “big hike” ( πŸ™‚ ) up in the Berkeley hills along the crest overlooking the Bay as well as Diablo. Hope you got to do something fun as well.

          • alanstorm

            Played a gig at the Fulton 55 club in Fresno- “Paws for Metal” benefit for an animal shelter.
            Had to issue an *Old Guy On Stage Alert*
            …long drive!

          • DayHoe Herald

            Am sure you rocked it

          • jstrahl

            “Old Guy on Stage Alert” πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚
            Nice!!

  • alanstorm

    5.7 earthquake off the coast of Humboldt County earlier today
    https://www.google.com/amp/www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-
    earthquakes-magnitude-57-quake-strikes-near-capetown-calif-20170922-story,amp.html

  • Sokafriend
    • Pfirman

      Maybe Haiti historically? But wow.

    • alanstorm

      They would save alot of space if they just put:
      FLOOD WARNING, EVERY MUNICIPALITY OF
      PEURTO RICO

  • Fairweathercactus

    The Cincinnati Bangles Vs Packer game will likely be the warmest on record at kick off 88 degrees with heat index it could be near 100 degrees. Aaron Rodgers has never beat Cincinnati and they have the number one pass defense.

    • Bombillo1

      Wait til the LA Chargers release their methane gas there.

  • Aaron W. (Paramount)
    • RunningSprings6250

      Seems deceiving with the clouds behind the buildings, my first thought was pyrocumulus!

      Nice shot though!

  • Woke up to quite the nip probably should have closed my window my room is now 40 degrees according to indoor outdoor temps ?

  • Thunder98

    Its 46F this morning again in Santa Maria. Yesterdays low was 45F. Chilly!

  • sezwhom

    Major differences showing up past this week. First weekend in October shows no consistency with GEM dropping an amazingly deep Low in on NorCal. Probably an outlier but fun to see. Of course, GFS is Ridge Happy but it even teases NorCal with possible rain on the October 7th. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7e98cbef5c52675d68db5da572d90412e56637910254554af0a7ec0594f7a30c.png

    • e e

      Hope the trough won’t interfere with the SF Fleet Week for that weekend.

  • cthenn

    From the bay area AFD:

    “Longer range guidance favors warmer than normal conditions
    continuing all of the way into the middle of October. No
    precipitation is expected.”

    Le sigh…

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      How am I going to believe that when they can’t even accurately predict temperatures the day of

    • Eh. I don’t buy that.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Let’s hope that’s just another campaign promise…. And the opposite comes true.

    • Pfirman

      Le groan.

  • AlTahoe

    First icicle of the new winter this morning. Coffee on the porch is a bit chilly. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c5f2726a2d89dd31ece17e32bf8621335bbb9ed4530ed8606bf6b2b0cc50eb6f.jpg

    • matthew

      Very cold morning here. Low 20’s when I woke up and still only in the mid-30’s at almost 10 a.m. Looking forward to a couple more weeks of 70’s.

      • Cap’n

        A balmy 29F here for my morning low, up to 42F now at 11:07. Little Siberia starts to infiltrate soon with the lowering sun angle. We don’t get the bone chilling morning lows you guys do, but we also never really warm up much as the sun starts hiding behind the mountains. I’ve been burning logs for three days straight. I won’t forget my gloves for today’s ride, I did yesterday. I’m taking back my excitement for snow and winter that I voiced the other day; I’ll gladly take some more 70s before winter settles in…

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          Now that u said that where gonna have a dry winter lol

        • matthew

          Going to hike Rose tomorrow morning. Planning on some near-winter temperatures. Hopefully not that cold, but packing in some layers. And gloves!

  • Fairweathercactus
  • Fairweathercactus

    Are we going to have a contest this year for rainfall in downtown and San Diego? I could get an old excel sheet going.

    • alanstorm

      Like the Seinfeld “contest”?
      Count me out

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Beautiful photo taken from a plane of the Sierra yesterday showing all that https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4241e7e6d7effa7bacc0a03becc857c2d6b5227fcd51ce3b8a568ec31a9bd3c6.jpg snow!
    Photo credit: David Raboin

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      That is impressive for September even October

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Truly. Let’s hope it’s a harbinger of what’s ahead.

    • Tuolumne

      That’s the Mono Creek valley running diagonally across the bottom of the photo, with Second Recess in the bottom center. Third Recess and Fourth Recess are in the far center right, with Snow Lakes almost at the edge of the photo about a third of the way up. Lake Crowley is visible in the far distance in the upper right. Grinnell Lake is prominent in the center left about a third of the way in from the edge.

      Google Earth is magic!

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        I was thinking that was Crowley Lake in the distance and those big mountains south of Mammoth with those lake basins, some of the biggest lakes in the High Sierra!

        • Tuolumne

          The Third Recess-Fourth Recess part of the photo looked familiar. At first I thought it was the Shepherd Crest area north of Mt. Conness but that didn’t work out. Maybe that’s Mono Lake in the background? Nope. Lake Crowley? Mono Creek? Aha!

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            Saw that Mono Creek Valley on 395 3 weeks ago on my departure from the White Mountains to Mammoth to watch a Michigan football game after summiting White Mountain and experiencing a big lightning storm

          • Tuolumne

            Mono Creek is on the west side of the Sierra and drains west into Lake Edison, mentioned here recently. Perhaps you mean Rock Creek?

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            yes sorry

          • Pfirman

            Just over the ridge from Grinnell to the NE is Big McGee Lake. Spent three days there one August, 1962 if I recall well, hunkered down during an early snow. Finally a packtrain broke the trail and my buddy and I proceeded over the pass, 12,000ft!, and into Fish Lakes Basin. We caught trout to cook over a meager fire. What we did not eat was taken by a wily pine marten at night judging by the prints in the snow.

          • DayHoe Herald

            That’s a great story — the kind of thing one wouldn’t forget

          • CHeden

            what did you use for bait?

          • Pfirman

            Super-dupers were the rage. We were not fly fishermen. Cast and reel, cast and reel, rinse and repeat. We were hungry. We had a big SOS carved in the snow. The snow was too deep to hike and could not see the trail anyway. Ended up meeting up with the packer and helping him bring out three doctors from the basin. More to the story, but too long for here.

          • CHeden

            Actually, I’m kinda bored.
            All this nice weather is a real snoozer.
            Would like to hear how it all went down?

          • Pfirman

            I’m thinking about it. Have to rustle up some grub now.

      • cthenn

        Haha should have read your reply before I made annotated the photo. At first I thought it was the University Peak / Center Basin / Kearsarge Pinnacles area, but then I noticed the body of water. Took me a bit to figure it out, but reading this would have been much more helpful haha!

        • Tuolumne

          Nice job on the annotations!

          • cthenn

            Yeah there’s like 257 named lakes in that photo but I usually just go for the major peaks πŸ™‚

    • cthenn

      I can’t help myself… I’m a huge Sierra nerd and I do these annotated photos all the time (normally I’m annotating photos and panoramas from summits, not from an airplane!)

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/807aa3a997852d7f0c32134d633a2b45532dfbb2222ab5b6fc759ff8ae52b802.jpg

      • Nathan

        great job! I love these.

      • DayHoe Herald

        That is very cool — thanks!

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
        • cthenn

          Well done, and “haha”……

        • sdmike

          “Screw you LA” by Crowley Lake?!?

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            It’s because it’s main made and LA took all the water out of most of the Owen’s Valley turning most of it into a desert and leaving the lush and orchard filled valley as a distant memory

      • Beth_ElDoradoHills

        very informative- thank you

      • jstrahl

        Thanks!

      • shampeon

        Did Pioneer Basin and the 4th recess in 2015, at the tail end of the drought. The lakes in Pioneer had sandy beaches from the low water levels.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Yikes… It’s truly a fall morning with crystal clear skies over my locale, and the air is beginning to dry out here at the surface. Haven’t felt this classic eerie feeling for a Santa Ana event in awhile. ?

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      & I’m getting that feeling for a reason… https://twitter.com/nwslosangeles/status/911663936549933056

      • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

        Well, this is expected. Going to be hot and dry through the rest of September.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          It’s notable this is actually seasonal unlike all the other past wind events of the last 6 years… No offshore winds here all year and then right on schedule for September/October.

  • Who Killed Kenny Strawn?

    Correct me if I’m wrong but it like a chance for a cut-off low to spin some thunderstorms in Southern California in about 8-10 days?

  • John Curtis

    The heat wave next week WILL NOT HAPPEN!

    • cthenn

      I hope you’re right

    • Nathan

      my money is on warm wave

  • β€˜Backyard’ view looking west. Sage is plentiful and cattle leave it alone. Coyotes were screaming, howling and crying last night. It’s eerie regardless of how many times I hear them. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/19e29330fbdacd4fcde35825099005d32a85e15ba56bd28de4499e6597e62a3f.jpg

    • Beth_ElDoradoHills

      look at how low the water level has gotten !

    • Chris

      You off Santa Tereasa Blvd?

    • honzik

      The green stuff looks like Stinkwort. It’s a noxious non-native weed that’s coated with a sticky peppery-soapy resin. My goats won’t touch it, which is something because they’ll moe through poison oak and blackberry like candy. It’s so bad that it can give you a mild case of contact dermatitis. I actively have to go into my field an clean it up with an action hoe to keep it from spreading.

      • Tuolumne

        Good call, and that plant is a real pest.

        • honzik

          It’s the worst. It’s now all up and down the 280 corridor with its evil twin, golden star thistle, another noxious import. It takes over anywhere that’s overgrazed or sprayed too early with roundup.

        • honzik

          Tell me about it. It has spread far and wide since it was introduced 25 years ago in Milpitas, of all places. It’s now up and down the 280 corridor with its evil twin, the golden star thistle.

          It tends to take over places that are over grazed or sprayed with herbicide too early in the spring. Vintners are worried, because it grows between grape rows with the potential of changing the flavor of the wine with its unpleasant resinous odor.

  • cthenn

    Just got back from a bike ride through the East Bay hills. What a great day, but it is dry! Probably the lowest humidity of the entire summer.

    • malnino

      That’s because it’s the second day of autumn, my friend!

      • Tuolumne

        Today is a classic warm, dry, slightly windy autumn day. Great for cleaning up the truck and washing off gear. Everything dries off fast.

        The change of seasons is in the air. You can see it and feel it.

        • jstrahl

          It was 77 in central Berkeley, sure didn’t feel that warm.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Hurricane Maria is still lurking in the western Atlantic, and according to the, ahem, GFS, it’s course takes it real close to Cape Hatteras. But then, like a pin ball hitting a bumper, it pings off into the Atlantic and heads NE. Hopefully it’s the last major tropical threat of 2017.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/157941c56758a2bf2edebd40bbe2349be06bf692036dbfd5486cbe9132c20f9d.png

    • Tuolumne

      I doubt it’ll be the last. This year looks like 2005 all over again, which went on seemingly forever. Ominously, that year brought 1,000+ deaths in October due to hurricanes. πŸ™

      Of course I really, really want to be wrong…

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        I hope you are. Next up – Exploding volcanoes and asteroids, OH NO!

      • CHeden

        2005 featured Hurricane Epsilon which peaked on December 2.
        Then, as a last gasp, Tropical Storm Zeta was named in early January 2006. Ya, 2005 was quite the season.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      The jet that was over California yesterday will move across the country and then drive Maria away from the NC 5 days from now https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2e2993d21444cf15a96ea0122c8392d05f8c3fdd9e0f50d3e02bcdd5b222fad4.gif

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes, !

      • Darin

        There’s so much going on in this, I can’t stop watching.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    All models are beginning to flirt with a cutoff low possibly extending out of the interior West sometime next weekend… Possibly bringing thunderstorm chances into the state yet again.
    This possibility still has time to fall apart on us since it is out in the 7-10 day range, and there are still major differences overall in the patterns just 5 days out so this should be taken lightly with chances obviously. Still worth noting. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3654bab3d9a3bbae4a512d1f63328c6d319d37cbb9d4504b9c1a9adc1fb8bdff.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f8969a357c203510bf614a40f4ba45ff1fd9d0cd982f9d3581b501fff8e8c76a.png

    • molbiol

      Gone in the 18Z run. Ensembles are spread out as well. We are entering that time year when the long range models loose all consistency after three days. So typical during seasonal transitions….

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Yep.

    • CHeden

      This is this the pattern (sorta) we were jabberin’ about last week. Interesting that the GFS is still waffling after all this time….a good 6-7 days of uncertainty. Must be a record (of sorts)…even for the GFS>

  • inclinejj

    This weekend is the Pacifica Fog Fest. 75.6 degrees in the Back of the Valley. Seems to always be decent weather for the Fog Fest.

    • CHeden

      Don’t it, though. Lots of great memories of the Fog Fest. Have a good friend with a glass shop right on Palmetto. T’was the hang out…especially in the back (wink, wink). Used to watch the Niners kick “A” back in the day out in front near the street. Always got a great crowd.
      A morning round at Sharp’s beforehand was a must. We’d meander over to the festivities after visiting the 19th hole for preliminaries.

  • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

    I forgot to post this AM it was 46 on my back porch at 600ft and 42 down the hill about 1/2 a mile away at the downtown wunderground station, only about 100ft lower elevation but the valley bottom in Orinda.

    Very chilly start to an amazing day today!

    I dont mind this Indian summer weather as long as it doesn’t get outta control and the forecast is only for low 90’s later next week during the peak of this, which really isn’t too bad.

    • shampeon

      Gorgeous day today, and pleasantly warm with a cool breeze at the Walnut Festival in Walnut Creek.

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Wasn’t it? Amazing visibility across the bay area today. Finally!

    • jstrahl

      51 in central Berkeley for a low, 77 the high.

    • AlTahoe

      Wow 9k vertical lines. Amazing!

  • Fairweathercactus

    I love all the East Coast people complaining about them being warm for the first days of Fall. For us it is welcome to every year…

  • AlTahoe

    The big mountains down here in South lake are holding a lot of snow today
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5f5c1c18b2ed2fb35164533ef329c433e825e8300c524d8dcc302d9dd93b2e80.jpg

  • Thunder98

    The official low today was 45F again. The high today was 76F.

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=lox&sid=KSMX&num=72&raw=0

    • jstrahl

      In?

      • Charlie B

        Orcutt (I think).

        • Pfirman

          It was a Santa Maria link.

      • Thunder98

        It’s in the link

        • jstrahl

          Thanks.

  • Charlie B

    When I was up in Truckee a couple of weeks ago, I bought Mark McLaughlin’s excellent book “Snowbound.” The book chronicles the 10 snowiest Tahoe winters (Donner Summit) since 1880. It has great photos and stats. I sent him an e mail and he responded quickly thanking me for my purchase and noting that 2016-17 just missed the mark even though it was #1 in terms of total precipitation (beating out 1982-83). He was glad in a way that it fell short because otherwise he would have had to revise the book (the most recent year on the list is 2010-11, which is #8 overall at 643″).
    Anyway, I was struck by this in reference to the 1889-90 year, which was # 4 overall at 776″): “The previous year brought only 22 feet of snow at Donner Pass” and that Tahoe lake levels made it impossible for larger boats to reach many wharves. It was also noted that the Truckee River near Reno was so low you could walk across it without getting your feet wet.
    “Old timers began to predict that the region was going through ‘climate change’ and warned that the big winters of yesteryear would be just a memory.”

    • Pfirman

      Nice of the guy to converse.

      • Charlie B

        He was pretty funny. He actually said that his wife would kill him if he started the project of revising the book.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
  • John Curtis

    Fourth time on the sight today. The rainy season must be coming. I place my untarnished reputation on the line: THIS WEEK WILL BAFFLE NOAA FORECASTERS!

    • molbiol

      Please be a bit more specific…what exactly are you saying?

      • Chowpow

        Somewhere, sometime, something will happen..probably.

      • John Curtis

        Heat wave is a bust.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      what will baffle them?

      • John Curtis

        That John Curtis spoke this morning and the weather followed.

        • GR

          And misspelled ‘site’.

    • Sriracha lover

      BRILLIANT!!!!!!

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      It’ll soon be time to Make California Wet Again!

    • thlnk3r

      If I’m not mistaken Curits…your forecast from last year did come true? This style of forecasting goes way beyond the weather rock ……

  • Nate

    Heads up Central and Socal folks; there’s a Vandenberg Launch at 10:30 tonight that should be relatively easy to see. Visibility is great, so if you have a view to your west in SoCal, I recommend checking it out!

    Here’s the path:
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/694e14397d4aedc0b59e85b4e2d5cdde0df2763f1d5cf2391088c005c2a42add.jpg

    • Son of a bitch I saw this too late πŸ™

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Did you catch it? It headed south, down range from the Bay Area.

      • Nate

        Yup! Caught it 200 miles away here, pretty cool. If it’s not too off-topic and anyone wants to see, I can post video.

        • I probably could have caught it if I had 25 Min warning, I saw your post with 15 minutes left on the clock so I will be needing that video for therapeutic purposes.

    • Alice Paul (LA)

      Both of my daughters texted me from a downtown LA bar with video shots. They thought it was a meteor, but learned quickly via twitter it was a rocket launch. Still exciting!