California hits precipitation record as spring warming commences

Filed in Uncategorized by on April 16, 2017 2,564 Comments

Record wet in Northern California; huge snowpack threatens floods

Record wet conditions occurred across wide swath of interior West this winter, including parts of NorCal. (WRCC)

It’s official: the Northern Sierra “8-Station Index”–comprised of 8 precipitation observation sites in the northern half of the Sierra Nevada watershed–has eclipsed 1982-1983 to become the wettest Water Year (Oct-Sep) period on record! Even more remarkable is that this record has been set so early in the calendar year–even though May-September is the dry season in California, some additional precipitation in this region is all but inevitable in the coming months, which will push this record total even higher. Statewide precipitation metrics are not far behind. Precipitation in 2016-2017 is closely paralleling 1982-1983, and stands a good chance at breaking the long-standing record later this year.

All of this beneficial, drought-busting water, though, hasn’t been evenly distributed throughout the state. While Southern California has been wetter than average this winter, precipitation accumulations have not been nearly as anomalous as in the northern portion of the state (the Los Angeles basin, for example, is hovering just slightly above average for the Water Year to date).

The state of California is closely tracking its wettest Water Year on record–with more precipitation in the forecast. (CNAP)

The record wet conditions, however, have not been confined to California–a band of record or near record wetness extends from the northern coast of the San Francisco Bay Area inland across the Northern Sierra and then further across the interior West (as far east as western Wyoming and Montana!). This band of exceptional seasonal precipitation is the product of a persistently active and somewhat southerly storm track this winter, which brought frequent atmospheric rivers to the coast.
California snowpack is also extremely impressive this spring, though (as has been previously noted) it has for the most part lagged total precipitation due to the relative warmth that has co-occurred with this record wet Water Year. The tremendous amount of accumulated water in the high Sierra snowpack is just what the doctor ordered with respect to drought relief, but may pose some problems in the coming weeks if it melts too quickly. Growing concerns over major snowmelt flooding have already triggered pre-emptive disaster declarations, especially east of the crest along the Highway 395 corridor and in far western Nevada. It remains to be seen just how much flooding may result from melting of this snowpack–and it will largely depend on just how warm temperatures get over the next few weeks.

Precipitation, snowfall, and reservoir storage in California all well above average–but snowpack greatly lags overall precipitation. (CNAP)

 

Yet more precipitation next 3-4 days, but then major drying/warming trend

Additional precipitation is expected across northern and central California this week. (tropicaltidbits.com)

A couple more modest spring systems are expected to bring additional precipitation to Northern and Central California over the next few days. The southern third of California will likely stay mostly dry, with some showers possible as far south as Los Angeles County. A few more thunderstorms could rumble across the Central Valley, and some additional accumulating snowfall is likely at the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada. But by next weekend, there is multi-model ensemble agreement that conditions will dry out and warm up pretty rapidly as a strong ridge builds directly overhead. Temperatures could rise to 10-15+ degrees above mid-April averages by next week, which will likely accelerate snowmelt. It’s still to early to say whether there may be a subsequent pulse of snowmelt flooding downstream, but the upcoming warming trend certainly bears watching from that perspective.

Model ensembles have been strongly suggesting a spring heat wave is likely in the 5-10 day period. (tropicaltidbits.com)

 

 

El Niño may be back in the picture this year (yes, already)

The multi-model ensemble mean strongly suggests the development of El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific by autumn. (CPC)

There are increasingly strong signs that El Niño may be making a comeback in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. With all the usual caveats (namely, that we’re still on the wrong side of the Spring Predictability Barrier), there is excellent multi-model agreement that a significant event may begin to unfold in the coming months. That would be pretty eyebrow-raising, since it has only been a year since the last big El Niño. It’s still far too early to discuss California implications, but if the current outlook holds then I would expect warm SSTs to begin having an influence as early as this coming summer. I’ll continue to follow developments in the tropical Pacific in coming blog posts. Stay tuned!

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  • Admode (Susanville)

    Just for fun here is a drone shot I took last weekend of Butt Creek, looking west: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4e3dce5750273613a5214d927e582bb0da608c0776aa3b5d5b46a60a616a830b.jpg

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Would that be east of Chico? Forest looks healthy!

      • Harpo (Chico)

        I’ll just butt in to say that Butt Creek is about 50 miles northeast of Chico. It flows into the North Fork of the Feather just below Lake Almanor.

        Not to be confused with Butte Creek which flows west into the Sacramento near Chico.

      • Admode (Susanville)

        Yes, near lake almanor and butt valley reservoir.

        • Tuolumne

          I still want to get up to Butt Mtn. one of these days.

    • alanstorm

      Nice country!

  • alanstorm

    Truckee R near Sparks on a steady snowmelt rise past FLOOD STAGE.
    Will it reach the Feb flood level of 18ft?
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dbccb04b88234b6df212cad0c76850cb5f259436195d377b9bdfd604cba6c438.png

  • AlTahoe
    • Yolo Hoe

      Indeed, thanks for posting — N* already closed — seems somehow incongruous that such enjoyment is stopped when it could so easily be continued

    • I read ‘somewhere’ that Heavenly hit an all time for snow or something?

      • AlTahoe

        Yep and they broke their records by a lot. The bottom pic is a 30′ trench they had to dig to get to the explosives shed.

        • Bombillo1

          Hopefully the backhoe operator was very careful when he got to 29 feet.

    • PRCountyNative

      No closing in sight upstream (sort of) in the Wasatch.

      Last day of April.

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/21235a589188c796c890af344e98b3ce7c6e508082959268d96dbc3d12f8a9b4.jpg

    • Cap’n

      Shaka. I was wondering if you got out for the closing. I got in another 2 hours this morning but the heat got to it a little more than yesterday, though still fun. The way I calculate it I can still get 4 more days in via spinning lifts. Closing day next Sunday then my 3 Squawpine days into mid May. There’s so much snow up high, if we get a random snow storm mid month I’m hiking for pow runs above at Sugie.

  • molbiol

    Last three runs of deterministic GFS trending further and further east with the cut-off low each run. NAEFS remains all over the place. This will probably turn into nothing more than a late season warm santa ana wind event for Socal https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ca70112275ef9bdeb6b1b1dd8867370530468e6920fd51528c59cdf14f4a3690.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c3a55408d3db3b789538b5326224148baf679587a45beda5254c727582471624.jpg

    • I’m betting on some cool looking pics from Mattzweck.

    • RunningSprings6250

      Nope – it’s gonna be raining.

  • Yolo Hoe

    85F in Davis with barometer 30.06 and falling slowly — humidity 25% and light breeze from WSW

    • Pfirman

      Rode 26 miles mid-day. Beautiful except too polluted to see the glory that is the Sierra well.

      • Yolo Hoe

        Nice — I managed 18 miles late afternoon — was bumming on exactly what you noted re the haze — here’s a pic looking east over a grain laden field of wheat towards the snowpack their very life depends upon — all very pastoral except that glorious snowpack is barely visible at best in the distance. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/31130ebd9cdde944d0cb712be05ade242cf8d098fdc84973e5b0b906daa51670.jpg
        Somewhere up in that haze the legends of AI, Cap’n and the rest of the Tahoe crew grow ever larger with each mountain exploit as Caleb Greenwood looks down smiling.

  • Beth_ElDoradoHills

    80 degrees here. Scary. Guess this is the new normal they are talking about.

    • AlTahoe

      Umm 80F at the end of April start of May is totally normal for that area. If you were close to 100F that would be out of the ordinary.

      • Beth_ElDoradoHills

        Yes, but this is a warmer 80 degrees than I can recall in my years here

        • Joey B.

          Is it more humid?

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Chp Truckee shared this picture of a Jeep that broke down and was left on a trail in Dec. still a lot of snow to melt.

    https://www.facebook.com/chp.truckee/posts/1901391243406171

    • Cap’n

      West shore the best shore? If you like getting buried.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    18Z GFS is gonna be kicker for some folks, already can tell with the new over-water track following in suit with Euro. Hold tight though, this dance in the models will continue, so again wait until this Wednesday and then we might have a better handle on track and placement of possible convection.

    • Rainmaker (San Jose)

      Ill be a heat casualty on Wednesday though

    • Chris

      Will Tahoe be under the gun for good thunderstorms?

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    A week from now, I’ll be Arizona-bound for a few days. Looks like I’ll be missing much of the encore storm in the Central Coast. A little May rain is what we need.

    • inclinejj

      Go Warriors!

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      I don’t want rain right now

      • Pfirman

        Not on cherries you don’t, but I have a question. When do you begin irrigating in earnest?

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          We started already. With growth and a pretty heavy crop we already started. But we did start late and used less than we would have because of the very deep moisture from this winter

          • Pfirman

            Thought so. I am starting too as many of the trees are pretty young. Home orchard of about 36 mixed trees. Fortunately I had a heavy cover of wood chips all winter and that will conserve moisture from the relentless north winds we have been having.
            Thanks for your reply.

  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

    Wow this could end up being a very cold first half of May after the heatwave subsides for California but especially Southern California.The GFS has rebounded for the time being and if the rain depicted by this run is true, everyone will be at or above there normal rainfall for May. Consistent troughing through 132 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a3f8539bb55324346e314eeab8a217f5fc483cde38b21b67675bd10d5cab90ca.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/343da214f9ca318f7bf246d72c7fc3c5f9b9b18e3e1aecd467e0ce75c689e6d2.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0ff6edc78eb1e9e55370cb65ee9435df8e82a8d471936455968d8d0217d60ca7.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8760c67b32d48c3c787d0fa8e925f7bd67928c4d193802487a9e600ef724497b.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fc505e1af70b4ae027c2fa8926f9cafcc71df263601c0608298c745339a5a8b1.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/67e1a315ec0a25068dc0e30933aac435c9b4b10b94150692c65d7c7dba263743.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/420af00987b9bfac38febb991e8c2ea22dfca7260616aeee634a85a493895ed5.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/24ebc67a84b0796e2cb6a2d22f883d9972e4a0dd87b1e73be3f255249bc5e821.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6770a4fdc1f085ae8ace230ee8a815bda3af668c109d93d4805b94c2569a54e4.png f to 384f period that is being shown now would keep us in unsettled weather for 10 days. This is my perfect May and I think May could be wetter than March and April for Southern California! What an exciting and peculiar weather year in California!

  • Charlie B

    I mentioned a few weeks ago thematic some of our boys were putting in steam milled pine floors in our Graeagle place. Someone wanted to know what they look like. Here they are. The mill is near Shingletown. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/56197d516b2e6299a1f5a56d8ec3c361bc18a43e964e1953826ac4000ec88478.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7f11710825b9a54cf01568dccfb5319118cc5c60ed8daf48cb6bc33d6308eca0.jpg

    • annette johnson

      Nice…the wall is incredible too!

    • Cap’n

      Beautiful. I’m visualizing a WW meeting of the minds on those chairs come fall.

      • Charlie B

        And cigars.

        • inclinejj

          Scotch on the rocks!

      • gray whale

        Indeed. Looks like a beautiful place to hatch some geoengineering conspiracies on the unwitting masses….

    • Bombillo1

      Hey Charlie, that has to be Philips Bros mill in Oak run, correcto? Those guys milled a bunch of Doug Fir logs for me, for flooring, but those pine floors look VERY cool. Even has some blueing….

      • Charlie B

        Yup. The boys got a tour of the place. It is very impressive. These floors are incredible with many colors. Very labor intensive. Three counts of tongue oil with one to go. Then finish work and hot damn!

        • Bombillo1

          They’re about 20 mi from my place. A living museum.

    • inclinejj

      Thanks! I asked for you to post them. WOW.

      I wanted to ask you? Did the 1951/1952 blog posts end? Did you get those from the storm king?

      • Charlie B

        The ’51-52 posts ended with last big storm in March. I took the info from Sacramento Bee archives. I had to use temporary access that was good for 2 weeks, and that was through the Sacramento County Library system. I wish I had started before January but who knew last fall how this year would turn out.

        • inclinejj

          If there is will, you find a way to get things done.

          Or you go to law school =)

  • Cap’n

    Dog Valley romping. Dirtied the truck but didn’t get stuck. Saw this babe crossing the meadow but ignore my cat calls she did.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0a971ce4d29279408565efc5a78916c9e17ca1647cec4fcf0a4849601567daca.jpg

    • annette johnson

      She probably didn’t expect a cat call walking out in the middle of a meadow?!

      • Cap’n

        It’s my wife. She’s the smart one of the bunch. I got as far as I could in my truck before hitting some big mud pits. We decided to just walk around in the meadow but I kept leading us into marsh areas. Ultimately she’s the pack leader, I’m just the one who pretends to know what’s going on.

        • annette johnson

          ?

        • inclinejj

          I think I figured my wife was the smarter and much better looking one the first minute or two when we first met.

          Cap’n.. Your wife also stacks the firewood.

  • annette johnson

    Since our days are numbered until we hit the 100’s next week here in Havasu, I took advantage of 80 degree temps and no wind today by trimming some Palo Verde trees and pulling some weeds. Walked around the corner to see the gang taking an afternoon siesta! (“Fluffy” the desert tortoise came out of hibernation a few weeks ago. I got her as a hatchling 14 yrs https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d0a329afee4c3439d107da29c1332d3ee28fb9c947b52954497b9cdfbfb5b427.jpg ago from a friend who had the captive parents). https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/10a904449446af613c30ce9acf1332c626182a3f0895fdba6fcf7e1135d250ba.jpg

    • Thunderstorm

      Best pic of nature on this blog ever. The dog,the cat in the chair and the desert tortoise. Awesome!

      • Chris

        And the only one moving was the tortoise!!!????

        • Bombillo1

          The dog and cat have just entered hibernation.

          • PRCountyNative

            Estivation

          • Bombillo1

            Very good.

        • annette johnson

          She has to make up lost time lol. It really is amazing how much ground they can cover.

      • annette johnson

        Aw, thanks!

    • Bombillo1

      Fluffy is definitely eating right. Has a shot at seeing the 22nd century!!

      • annette johnson

        No kidding! I better have some grandkids in the near future? They will be the ones taking care of her one day.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    April, like March was very dry and warmer than average.

    April 2017

    Aver Max: 78.6°/ Norm: 75
    Aver Min: 56.9 / Norm: 54
    Mean: 67.7°

    Hi/Lo Max: 92/ 68
    Hi/Lo Min: 65/ 51

    Heating Degree Days: 18
    Cooling Degree Days: 107

    Rain: 0.03
    Rain Year [jul-jun]: 20.10
    Days: 1

  • Thunderstorm

    Temperatures may go well above forecasted highs as the upper air will be in record high temps tuesday-wednesday.

    • Rainmaker (San Jose)

      Monday and Tuesday have now entered the upper 80’s, originally it was set for 82,83 for San Jose. I hope Wednesday doesn’t get any warmer

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    May 3rd high: 92
    May 6th high: 64
    Fascinating, almost a thirty degree swing especially with us being so close to the ocean.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Anytime it is 90+ it is hot.

  • jstrahl

    00Z GFS knocks the cumulative precipitation forecast by 384 hours WAY down from the 18Z. Last week we had lots of moisture but little dynamics. In the first part of May looks to me like god dynamics but little moisture.

    • SacWx

      It appears to still be an improvement over 12z and certainly 6z. It’s been bouncing around a lot. As was mentioned previously, this setup is going to be difficult to nail down.

      • jstrahl

        Very true.

    • Last couple of runs have had some very cold air aloft for May. If that happens, there will be quite a bit of thunderstorm activity even in the absence of much moisture. Stay tuned…

  • click

    And so it begins for SoCal…
    Tower fire
    Approx 200 acres
    First fire in the Cajon Pass for 2017
    https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5170/

  • Howard Goodman

    Fires in Southern Calif. and there’s still water just running out of the ground in Northern Calif. , had our nicest day of the year got to right at 70 the grass is growing the Dogwoods are just starting to bloom and tons of pollen in the air

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      The height of the dry grass is above knee-level; the prolonged warm winds make it perfect fire conditions. However the soil water content is still good

  • thebigweasel

    It’s going to be a bad fire year for SoCal. In some areas, the grasses are five-to-six feet high, and we’ve had nine straight days of off shore winds, so they have dried with alarming quickness. I know “green” is an ephemeral thing down here, but this time the dry-out was startlingly fast.
    Compare with McCloud, which is still pretty much sodden, and so green it hurts the eyes.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      It’s nuts, I believe we’ve already seen a small glimpse of what’s to come just yesterday.

    • Chris

      I think it can only be a bad Fire year if HUMANS make it a bad fire year.
      Lightning sparked fires during the monsoon season are accompanied by light winds and higher humidity.
      Fires during dry, hot, windy weather are caused by people.

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        To be honest, winds certainly play a role w/ electrical sparks

        • Chris

          I still consider that man-made though unintentional

          • happ [Los Angeles]

            agree

    • inclinejj

      Putting out fires is big business. More fires mean Cal Fire asks for more money. The state calls the Fed’s etc.

  • mattzweck

    Here in the high desert/Lancaster area. Nice spring weather. But warm. Right now about 70 outside and it’s only a little after 8am.

  • Henry

    It is May 1. Sierra snowpack is at 152% of April 1 average, and almost double the average for May 1. So far the snowmelt has been fairly slow, with only about 10% of the snowpack having melted.

    I’m still expecting snowpack to be at 60% of April 1 average by the end of May, with some high elevation areas around 100% of April 1 average. I’m expecting most of the Sierra snowmelt this year to occur between May 1 – June 15, which is a couple of weeks earlier than in 1983 and 1998 when most of the snow melted between May 15 – June 30.

    • Bombillo1

      Wednesday is going to take care of everything below 6000′.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Sure should.

  • mycoholic

    Any thoughts on the wind event on Saturday, May 6? I’m getting married on the central coast on Saturday and have been watching the models at with first joy (looked like heat wave), then disappointment (looked like we might just miss out on the heat wave), and now significant anxiety (forecast calls for 20+ knot winds as the low moves in). The forecast has not been moving in the right direction. Think there’s hope of this low swinging off in a different direction or should we begin making emergency plans for crazy wind?

    Thanks!

    • RunningSprings6250

      Plan for wind and rain….what is this, wedding planners? ?

      • mycoholic

        Just a weather nerd wishing that the forecast would change. Isn’t that what this comments section is all about!?

    • inclinejj

      Can you move the wedding inside if you have too?

      • mycoholic

        Maybe, but not easily.

    • Bombillo1

      Attach ropes and swing set seats to the dining tent and get married at 6,000 feet.

    • gray whale

      congratulations! it’s my kid’s first bday and i’m having the same anxiety. was going to post today asking if anyone knows some of the good folks at the GFS company if they could pull a few strings for an ol’ weather guy who’s never asked for any favors before, now would be a great time! Maybe if we join forces our wishes will stand a better chance.

      • mycoholic

        What good timing we both have, eh? If you need me to start a letter writing campaign to the good people at NOAA, just let me know. I’ve got 130 guests who would be willing to sign the petition.

    • Nathan

      Don’t worry the warmth of your love will ward off all inclement weather

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Feels like Arizona all of a sudden. What happened?

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Thankfully the shift to marine layer if not rain looks promising late in the week.

    • RunningSprings6250

      Did you step off a plane?

      Or perhaps a plain?

    • annette johnson

      Well…look at the bright side. If it is hot in Cal (esp SoCal) it’s even going to be hotter in AZ. But it is a dry heat?

  • Rusty Rails

    I’m in Yosemite Valley where there is still a snowpack under the trees in many spots like the path up to the base of Lower Yosemite Fall. Lots of water coming over and the melt is just getting going. The Merced already has most of my usual sunrise riverbank photo spots under feet of water.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/79d396e6fcce3b9d138fe6f4c0150054c540b8f48ad6e0be875041c5773100f9.jpg
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1f3299b98f91caa77a6108bd909d7dd800846404e73d5e24421d43910007aaa2.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c6e5e6b0d6e923280fa720c1b10bfbd561f73b8f67863dd03af38304a72a1c6d.png

    • Bombillo1

      Great demonstration of the importance of shading, whether it be from mountains, canyons or trees. Southern exposed areas at 7,000′ have already been de-snowed.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Grew up there, very impressive!

  • Chris

    This is copied from my Morgan Hill Rainfall page. Enjoy!

    Here are the monthly and season to date rainfall totals since the season began July 1st.

    *PON= Percent of Normal
    * SEA= Season to Date

    *Updated 5/1/17*

    Month Total Normal PON

    Jul 0 .01 0%
    Aug 0 .03 0%
    Sep 0 .24 0%
    Oct 7.27 1.27 572%
    Nov 1.07 2.45 44%
    Dec 3.73 4.62 81%
    Jan 19.87 4.66 426%
    Feb 13.27 5.34 249%
    Mar 2.85 3.61 79%
    Apr 3.11 1.45 215%

    SEA 51.20 23.68 216%

  • Chris

    Top 10 rainfall seasons (July1-June30th) in Morgan Hill since 1983-84
    AVG 24.68

    1) 2016-17 51.20
    2) 1997-98 42.12
    3) 1992-93 37.32
    4) 1994-95 35.69
    5) 1986-87 33.97
    6) 2009-10 32.70
    7) 2010-11 31.85
    8) 1996-97 31.38
    9) 1995-96 31.16
    10)2005-06 29.47

    *Honorable mention: 1982-83 44.38″ of rain at another location.

    • weathergeek100

      It’s amazing what the orographically induced areas got this season. At sea level w/ no orographic influence, I don’t think San Fran even hit the top ten.

      • Chris

        Even though Morgan Hill is a valley, the storms “behaved” in a way that we were a high elevation spot.
        Many times this year I would watch the radar where the rain would approach the coast, intensify over the mountains to our west, then only diminish slightly when hitting the valley.
        Santa Rosa had the same fate. What we have in common is a narrow valley and in our case, only 1,000 ft hills upwind and 2,500 hills downwind.
        The wider the valley, the less impressive the rain totals were this season.

  • Arctic River (Suisun City)

    Last night was the first night this year I slept with the window open, and wouldn’tchaknowit, there was a strong temperature inversion. I woke up thinking the train was heading for my bedroom, and I could hear mocking birds from what must have been a block away.

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

    Its very warm today!

  • Bombillo1

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/700199b4aa3a2591f9b9f4a3d5abfcaa7a4b3a320cb4dd87f35b98f994f581a2.jpg

    What the heck is going on here? Bracing for the 90 degree death ray on Wed and we have convective cloud activity, 4 days before schedule?

  • mattzweck

    here in the high desert/Lancaster area. really warm out it’s about 93 out right now.

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

    I recived 21.64″ of rain since September 1st.

    Actual | Avg | %
    Sept: 0.00″ | 0.16″ | 0%
    Oct: 1:39″ | 0.58″ | 240%
    Nov: 1.39″ | 1.36″ | 102%
    Dec: 2.84″ | 2.15″ | 132%
    Jan: 7.00″ | 2.64″ | 265%
    Feb: 6.69″ | 2.75″ | 243%
    Mar: 1.17″ | 2.43″ | 48%
    Apr: 1.11″ | 1.15″ | 104%
    Total: 21.64″ | 13.18″ | 164%

  • Thunderstorm

    Palm springs has 100f today. 85f here and bay breeze has kicked in so no more heating here today. If the upper low is like those in the past the main action will happen over 100 miles away from the center of the low. Probably with afternoon heating.

  • Interesting 18z run indeed.

    • Bombillo1

      Geo, what piques your interest about the 18z? Anything more definitive?

    • I have to say–for a May cut-off low scenario, the models have been remarkably consistent with a setup that would bring widespread thunderstorms to much of CA…and perhaps multiple rounds…in the 5-10 day period. Don’t focus on the model precip fields in this case–look at the position of the low and the cold pool aloft. Certainly looks like an interesting setup–assuming no major changes, will have a new blog post on Thursday/Friday.

      • SacWx

        What are your thoughts on a thunder snow scenario for portions of the Sierra?

        • Quite likely.

          • inclinejj

            Nice we are in Incline from the 3rd to the 9th!!

          • Chris

            Hey let’s meet! I’m at Incline 4th-7th. I’m at Starbucks at 6:30am every day!
            Let’s see…. what should we talk about….. ?

      • inclinejj

        Is snow over 6,000 feet in Tahoe still happening?

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Euro was the first to show that second pulse… Now it’s remarkably on the GFS 18Z, with still a week out. Impressive for April/May standards & possibly a good outbreak to speak of if this holds.

      • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

        Do you or anyone know when the last time we have had a cutoff low setup similar to this in Socal? I feel like it has been before 2010

  • Fairweathercactus

    Some of the best thunderstorms for my area have came around April/May in wrap around patterns like this. May 2008 storm was something special. Lets not get to excited. Some models do show it hitting mostly San Diego.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Spring ’08 was super wicked.

  • inclinejj

    Rattlesnake Bite Sends Hiker To Hospital In Serious Condition
    Bay City News Service Published 4:39 pm, Monday, May 1, 2017

    Snake season has arrived in Northern California, which means venomous rattlesnakes will be slithering around the East and South Bay. Pictured above: Northern Pacific rattlesnake.  Photo: David Allen/Got Snakes?
    Photo: David Allen/Got Snakes?
    IMAGE 1 OF 6
    Snake season has arrived in Northern California, which means venomous rattlesnakes will be slithering around the East and South Bay. Pictured above: Northern Pacific rattlesnake.

    FREMONT (BCN)
    A San Jose man is in serious condition following a rattlesnake bite this afternoon east of Fremont on Mission Peak, a California Highway Patrol flight officer and paramedic said.
    The snake bit the man at about 1 p.m. on the top of Mission Peak during a hike with his wife.
    A CHP helicopter crew heard a call to emergency personnel, responded and landed on the peak.
    The victim was given anti-venom and taken to Washington Hospital for more treatment, CHP Flight Officer and Paramedic Shaun Bouyea said.
    Bouyea was the one who administered the anti-venom.
    The victim, 47, sat on a rock at the top of the peak, put his hand down and was bitten by the snake, Bouyea said.
    When Bouyea got to him, the victim was in serious condition.
    The response by emergency personnel was delayed because cellphone service is limited on the peak and a language barrier existed.
    Bouyea said the only way to the peak is with a 4-wheel drive or helicopter and the quickest way to the man was by helicopter.
    501-8040
    CHP Air Patrol (707) 257-0103

    • Peavine Violet

      Very timely. I decided to postpone a lower elevation hike this weekend near the Carson River until the Fall for this very reason – they are out here in NV now too.

      • inclinejj

        Remember. Don’t plant tomatoes when there’s snow on Peavine.

    • matthew

      Right on time. I used to live a few blocks from the Mockingbird trailhead at Quicksilver Park and you could not ride/run/hike up there in April and May without seeing at least one – and usually multiple – rattlers. One of the many nice things about living at elevation – no fleas, ticks, nor rattlers.

      • RunningSprings6250

        No fleas or ticks here but we do have rattlesnakes and Arizona bark scorpions that have migrated up from the desert side… even had a very enlightening encounter with a camel spider last summer…..

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Similar situation in SoCal: “Rattlesnake season begins with a vengeance in Southern California” http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-rattlesnakes-20170419-story.html

      • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

        Ive have some pretty scary close encounters with huge rattlesnakes in the spring that were within striking distance and didn’t make a sound!

      • ConcepcionImmaculadaPantalones

        There usually aren’t snakes at the beach, but the lizards are back!

    • Dan weather maniac

      Ugggghg I saw that too. I have seen several snakes here in my yard in orinda last year including a baby rattler ………..found a few hibernating so far this year..,,killed them, I know I know ( but I have little kids you see) and this is the time of year when they really come out and are hungry after hibernating.

      I’m all for the natural balance but uggggh. The kids I am concerned for.

      So all the magestic hawks and eagles I see soaring nearly everyday ( big bird recovery here in the east bay hills!) and the owls I hear at night.,, eat them!!!

      Now one thing I haven’t heard much of this year, surprisingly, is frogs. Hmmm.

      Ticks though and mosquitoes, yes. Uuuuugghh.

    • JT (San Jose, CA)

      OMG. I was hiking in Mt. Madonna at about 12noon and almost stepped right onto a rattlesnake that was resting right in the middle of hiking trail…
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c3a39e02703965f223d7e6a3d4f57889064e0502a7afbbcfa55705c5ee681165.jpg

  • RunningSprings6250
  • Howard Goodman

    Warmest day of the year up here in the Mountains hit 75 and you can tell the snows melting the inflow of Oroville spiked late this afternoon https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1e8860692e9355effe27ee1670a0338cc5f9839ada21a5a0fa198d6e8677c81f.png

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Took the grandaughter and friends to the San Jose Family camping site this past weekend. It’s up off Hwy120 on the way to Yosemite. Couldn’t get into the park from that direction because of a road closure up nearer the entrance, so no photos of magnificent waterfalls.

    But, the camp has a creek running through it and it was running full. It was a wonderful time and the fish were biting!

    The debris field in the tree branch above the stream can be seen in the second photo, likely deposited there during the February storms. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bc48473ebc40baf2a51ccd03d4b19c343ffeac82dce34ab0b34d0658c4949492.jpg

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eaa5ad8ba21da8fb8207cdfaa063b44398e8f6f7d496f0644d5171db085d08c7.jpg

  • AlTahoe
    • One brave soul slid down cardboard hill on Sunday.

      • AlTahoe

        Was it you? Haha

        • I am not brave. The slide was from very near the top down the steepest part of the hill that faces the Community Park.

  • scott

    It looks like the heat is going to spike on Thursday, then rapidly cool off during the weekend for central California, valleys and mountains. Bakersfield hit 89 today and is predicted to be pushing 100 by Thursday. The mountains at 3500ft hit 83 briefly today and should peak at 87 Thursday. Even Mammoth looks to be in the mid-70s by Thursday. Here comes the warm weather. Even my tortoises are busy eating and moving around now.

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

    It went up to 85F today, warmest day of the year so far. Warmest May temp in 3 years!

  • molbiol

    Ensembles show a very loopy pattern across the entire northern hemisphere this weekend. Lots of closed/cutoff circulations #Loopy jet
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e4ac70e012882dbbc5d0a52890fc5ec68c8dcd3e0e3452c216dc4f94a30bd145.jpg

    • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

      Nice

    • Mike Stephenson

      Flat earth!

      • molbiol

        the physics behind clockwise and counterclockwise circulations associated with high and low pressure cells provides evidence to the contrary 😉

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

    January and February were very fun months because of the constent epic storms. 🙂

  • Bobby ( San Carlos)

    This is how warm it was today!
    70 degrees at 7:25 AM!
    Lower 80s before 12:00 PM
    89 degrees from 2-4 PM
    This was by far the warmest day of the year and the high of 89F is 17 degrees above average. Keep in mind the average high of July is 83F which is the warmest month of the year and I am around 10 miles away from the ocean

    • jstrahl

      Got to 80 deg F in central Berkeley today around 1, already down to 78 as i left for a friend’s place in Richmond, got back at 4:30 and it was 71.

      • Yolo Hoe

        Davis hit 91F at 5 pm today — and seemingly over performing on insect density

    • inclinejj

      Pacifica hit 80. The beaches were packed and a couple whales were spouting right off Linda Mar Beach.

  • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

    Long range SD AFD excerpt

    “Measurable rain and mountain snow is more likely through the weekend
    and early next week as the trough digs and cuts-off a low pressure
    center near SoCal. Considerable uncertainty remains with the track
    of this system after it cuts off. The 12Z CMC/ECMWF/GFS runs all
    have a low in the vicinity of the SW into the first half of next
    week, but sensible weather outcomes for extreme SW CA vary depending
    on the model solution.

    Present indications are that instability will be great enough to
    force shower development each day through at least Tuesday, with
    isolated thunderstorms possible. PW values in the 0.5-0.75 inch
    range should limit the extent of any heavy precip, but slow moving,
    scattered, convection is possible. Based on the most favored ECMWF
    model, the freezing level will be quite low, so accumulating
    snowfall is possible at resort levels in the mts.

    Keeping in mind that forecasting the track of cut-off systems is
    inherently difficult, let alone out 7 days, POPS remain on the
    conservative side for any given time period. In aggregate though,
    the probability that precip will fall at any given point in the CWA
    Saturday through next Tuesday is much higher. Moderate precip totals
    of an inch or more are possible with several inches of snow in the
    mts.”

    Wow an inch or more possibly? Obviously things can change, but looking exciting!

    • Dan weather maniac

      Bring it home to SoCal! You all need it after the shaft you got last couple months.

      I hope we get some up north but I’d be just as happy to see the south land get hammered much more than up here……….,….. if this event actually verifies!!!!

      • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

        Other than October, it has been a thunderstorm absent season for the most part. This will be much welcomed!

        • palmsprings

          Despite a great winter, the last day with measurable rain here was waaaay back on 2/28, so it would be about time!!!

          • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

            Hope you get a nice spring thunderstorm! This would be the time I think

  • jstrahl

    April rainfall 3.45 inches in central Berkeley, Season is now 40.23 inches, if adjusted for pre ’90 readings it’s 44.25 inches.

    • molbiol

      What does pre ’90 mean? Did the weather station relocate after 1990?

      • jstrahl

        UC Berkeley had a weather station till 1990, Berkeley “normal” data comes from the 1950-80 base period, though readings go back into the 19th Century. The station was located on the roof of Earth Sciences Building, right at the northern entrance to campus, aka North Gate, Hearst and Euclid, a bit into the hills. After 1990, the UC station closed, and the location used for Berkeley data on a website i go to has moved all over, there are gaps. I started recording data myself in April ’91, at my previous place, near the Rose Gardens, quite close to North Gate, moved to my current central Berkeley location in June ’94. A technician who worked at the Cal station told me the station’s readings were about 10% above downtown, due to orographic lift. So to make my post June ’94 readings comparable, i add 10%.

        • Chris

          What a horrible shame UC Berkeley didn’t make more effort to have continuous rainfall readings especially considering the longevity of their records.

          • Many weather stations were moved from downtown to the airports skewing data. Two examples I know of are SJC and SMF. Both give lower readings than before. Did you find out where Morgan Hill takes it’s readings from? I know there’s a station at the maintenance/bus yard but it’s tilted and close to trees.

          • jstrahl

            The idea was to remove the effect of hi rises on data. FWIW.

          • Chris

            I know it’s somewhere on E Dunne Ave.
            I questioned the NWS if it’s possible the rain gauge could be “rainshadowed” by either trees or structures.
            I’ve not heard back from them. Been 6 weeks now.
            I even suggested that perhaps this flawed data was part of the reasoning why everyone was so shocked that the Coyote Creek flooded so badly.

          • Off the top of my head I’d guess it might be at the Community Center. I’ll ask and see. With Anderson. Well we know Coyote Res. was already spilling into Anderson. Anderson was to the brim. So everything that came down just went over the spillway. I don’t know who has more or most responsibility for negligence. The area that flooded is within 100 yr flood zone.

          • Chris

            They started emptying Anderson full blast when it went above 65% capacity.
            They don’t allow it to fill past that due to earthquake threat.
            If there was no risk of dam failure, they undoubtably would have allowed the reservoir to fill much more before they opened the valve all the way, therefore, the flooding would have happened much sooner and would have been undoubtably worse!

          • I was checking reservoir level the day before the rain and it was 99% capacity maybe a foot from the spillway chute. The outlet pipe at the bottom can only do 85 CFS. That’s much more than was coming in which is why the reservoir (and Coyote filled and spilled into Anderson) filled. Coyote is under seismic limitations, too. January was over the top rainfall with February not far behind. If rain had been spread out Dec through March things may have been different. Other reservoirs like Guadalupe and Calero are smaller and the outlet pipes can keep reservoir levels down. I hope that all makes sense.

          • Chris

            Yes. Makes total sense.
            Anderson has a huge direct and indirect (overflow from Coyote) watershed.

          • jstrahl

            I wrote a letter about it, got a letter back from the Chancellor, hemming/hawing about having to save money

    • Beth_ElDoradoHills

      Is this taking into account the higher evaporation from the sun angle this winter?

      • jstrahl

        See my response to molbiol right below.

    • Max Track

      Just over 44 inches over here on the northside (but not in the hills). How does this year compare to 97-98 in Berkeley ? I’m guessing we are still behind that year.

      • jstrahl

        My total for that year was over 45 inches, i’d need a pretty amazing May/June to match, by June 30.

        • Max Track

          For sure… I think downtown SF got 47 inches that year (?) –and perhaps due to the strong orographic enhancement of the A.R. storms this year — SF is not even within striking distance of 97-98

          • Chris

            Yet down here in Morgan Hill, we are over 9″ past the 1997-98 season!

          • Max Track

            wow ! has anyone hiked Henry Coe recently ? The streams in there must be great right now. I remember finding a little swimming area even during the drought

          • Chris

            Not in over a year already.
            It was too depressing seeing all the dead Ponderosa pine trees. ?

  • Cat decided to go MIA at 1AM Saturday, and when this highly food motivated animal didn’t show up for a couple of days, panic began – of course the exceedingly crafty little b@st@rd just now waltzed up to the back door after 67 hours of mystery. Went missing for exactly one day during the heavy rains earlier this year so we were freaking out, as he had never been MIA for over 24 hrs.

    What’s cool though is while searching for the goofball I found this 5 footer. Never seen a snake so big in the bay. It tried impersonating a rattler, was cute watching it shake, huff, puff, and hiss, deflating like a popped balloon.

    I gently got him away from the road and off into the bushes. It was a fairly common Pacific _____ Snake. East Bay Hills.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/34f8408f4f09384886a558ed92e856e3fa90696c2c56f853e8f1bc636b7eec67.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e6d7b5d51a61fadc7ac643dfc3063b309097259eec71cb7b1096e6a018d23011.jpg

    • annette johnson

      He is a beauty! Glad you were able to move him to safety. Best rodent control available. Glad kitty came home!

      • inclinejj

        One day they evacuated and or placed the entire High School by my house on lockdown due to a Rattlesnake. Turned out to be a gopher snake.

        • annette johnson

          Some of those snakes look like a rattlesnake at first glance! I guess it is a good defense mechanism for them. Luckily for us here in Havasu a common non-venemous snake is a red racer and they are almost a bright pink, so very easy to identify.

    • molbiol

      Used to see those all the time in Oregon during the summer….they aren’t very happy when picked up as I’m sure you saw (Gopher snakes or in Oregon they are called bull snakes)

      • honzik

        Not enough gopher snakes. Too many gophers.

    • I’d see them on bike trails and bunnyhop. A few became crash test dummys

  • Also Eel River is looking glorious. King Range looking like the regal splendor that it is, if I have time I will post some photos from my real cams not a 4 year old phone. The moon setting over the Pacific is incredible right now, the weather and phase of the moon mean you get insane stars to accompany it. I’d post the moonset timelapse but I’m heading to Europe in 60 hours so, priorities 😛
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eaf8fc0cc5fb319f4b3aa3638568a24f07c478ec5b3a6e84e1158c6d34ce9f81.jpg
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/89f484aa844257efe59079d9c2171f44b032f77c4aa25a703ade1c340c787f99.jpg

    • alanstorm

      Bridge at Redway? Everything is looking healthy up here, trees have fresh sprouts, still color on the rivers.
      Yeah, my phone camera is CRAP compared to pics I used to have.
      Gotten used to crummy picture quality with a Droid. Thinking of going to an Ophone

    • inclinejj

      That spot looks fishy. I bet there a few steelhead sitting in that seam.

  • Rusty Rails
  • Utrex

    The NAM is showing decent CAPE levels on Thursday…. high for Midwest standards!

  • Fairweathercactus

    0z showed the low being more north and to the east missing most of the major metros for So Cal.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      FWIW, ECMWF hasn’t changed tune much on the idea of the low following a close track after ejecting over the SB channel hugging the Ventura County coastline and then sitting over the SoCal bight until Thursday, but yes heed warning it could go inland and be a wonky mess with no excitement…

    • Expect that track to be very volatile in the coming days.

      • inclinejj

        It will rain 3’s in Oakland starting around 7:30!!

        • We can look forward to that in the meantime. Lol!

        • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

          It’ll be raining 3’s until June.

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      Believe Cactus!

  • Shane Ritter

    It’s that time of year where weather west turns into Fire West.

    • Chris made an astute comment about heat/wind fires vs lightning strike fires yesterday. IE heat and wind don’t start fires. Not saying to keep one’s guard down.

  • Beth_ElDoradoHills

    We were in the 70s last evening. Yikes I have never seen it so warm so early in the night.

  • Tazmanian

    any one noted that there is no flood warning for the Merced river

  • inclinejj

    Pacifica. Finished April with 3.46.

  • CHeden

    Here’s an interesting release from the USGS regarding Volcanic Air Pollution in Hawaii (Vog), and it’s various impacts on the island and elsewhere downstream. The primary focus is on the release of SO2 and resulting aerosols that both contaminate the sea/land as well as cooling the local atmosphere and altering precipitation formation. The factsheet also mentions that recent research is indicating the Vog may have much more far-reaching climatic effects than previously thought, and that Climate Models may not be correctly this Vog-effect into account. I tried to find anything more specific as to exactly what research/data is available, but so far not much luck.
    Given that the SO2/Vog formation experienced huge spikes in 1983 and 2008 as Kilauea’s eruption expanded, we have in essence a natural climate experiment that’s currently in process.
    While there is no doubt there is alteration to the local Hawaiian climate going on, I wonder if the effect can really have a noticeable effect on a hemispheric scale? Perhaps the near-Hawaiian climate has become more conducive to the formation of relatively low pressure, which in turn are impacting the position/strength of high pressure to the north in the form of Rex/Omega Blocking patterns.
    Thanks to anyone with any other articles on the possible linkage of Vog to global climate patterns.
    https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2017/3017/fs20173017.pdf

    • I can see it from Haleakala if it’s a clear day…but don’t trades blow it away from the other Islands??

    • flyboy45

      Visiting Kona often and the Volcano Nat’l Park, the plumes are most often blown away from the source by the NE trade towards the SW, a short trip crossing the SW tip of the Big Isle and then out to sea. Does anyone have any reports of problems generated by the last Kona Low that disrupted the trades?

  • Tazmanian

    David, great question. Warnings are issued when conditions are expected to occur within 24 hours, and are based on guidance we receive from the River Forecast Center. The latest guidance from this morning showed warning criteria being met late tonight, and we have since issued a warning.

    I asked there NWS and now they have a flood warning

    • inclinejj

      Also the Army Core of Engineers always thought having trees on the levee strengthen them. Now they have reversed and said no trees on levee’s.

      • Pfirman

        I would like to see their data on that.

    • honzik

      I think we have a solution for that:

  • AlTahoe

    Newest GFS has the cut off as a Southern Cal special. Let the model riding/worrying begin. NWS Reno wants to hold off until tomorrow at the earliest before trying to guess what will happen with it.

  • Latest GFS right on track for very interesting weather weekend across nearly all of CA, including coast and SoCal. ECMWF has been even more consistent in showing a very impressive cut-off bringing widespread thunderstorms. At this point, looking increasingly likely…

    • I see 540dm line in a circle over Central CA 12Z 120hr.

      • AlTahoe

        Yeah if that verified we would definitely need some storm chasers down in that area. The Hanford, Lemoore area has had some big tornadoes before, and this would be a perfect setup for some more.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Even over my area lol.

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        Send it south, we don’t want it.

        • BRP (Ventura)

          Why so bitter about a little bit more precip before your miserable hot ass summer cranks up? This will just keep the dust down a few more days before you endure 5 months of searing heat!?!

          • Pfirman

            Some farmers have crops at critical stages. You would want the best for your crop too.

          • Bob G (Gustine)

            Because it can destroy our cherry crop and the cause damage to the industry in general and for others also. A quarter inch of rain at this time of year has very little benefit to our region.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      An upper low with cold air aloft + sun angle during May = potential for fun!

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    85 degrees already in Santa Maria. Could be the hottest day of this young year.

  • Here’s a flickr photostream from USFS. The most recent photos are of road damage. Spicer won’t be open until late 2018 or 2019. There may be others you recognize. This isn’t meant to be a commentary about the gas tax. https://www.flickr.com/photos/usfsregion5/with/34132352972/

  • Thunderstorm

    Always worth looking at the forecast for surrounding states when there is a major change forecast for California. Looking at the NWS forecast out of Phoenix. Low pressure to develop of the coast of California on Friday and bring SW winds across Arizona. Low to remain off coast and move towards southern California bringing increasing chances of unsettled weather to Phoenix area this weekend. Low will then move inland next Wednesday. Utah forecast also mentions SW winds. Looks like southern California will definitely get some interesting thunderstorms. FUN,FUN,FUN! This low has a big influence over a huge area!

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      A well-deserved treat even if it is only stratus!

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      You guys down south can have it. We don’t want it here in Central Valley. More harm then good.

      • Nope. I want it also!

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          Looks like it isn’t going to happen. GFS is bone dry

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        It is a luxury to not want rain in California; it is sacrilegious in SoCal to ever not want it to rain. lol

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          Enough rain right now could damage our cherry crop along with others in the industry and cause problems for others. A quarter inch of rain this time of year around us does a lot more harm than it does good which is little

    • Bartshe

      (raises hand with stupid question)
      This is because this global low pressure array actually looks like a string of number 6s? Never heard of this term before.

      • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

        I have to guess first Bartshe! Six amplified waves

      • Wavenumber is literally the “number of waves”–it quantifies “waviness” by taking the number of full wavelength oscillations across a line of latitude. I just counted the number of troughs (or ridges) in the Northern Hemisphere. Six blue splotches.

        • AlTahoe

          Question, can you have more than 6 wavelengths? It looks pretty jammed up with that many on the map.

          • Yes (up to around 8 or so), though at that point it tends to be pretty asymmetrical. This is about as striking an example of this as I’ve ever seen.

    • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

      Very cool. Not the same thing, but here is an article on “Wavenumber 5” and its associated teleconnections. Curious if there is a page with “general” effects of each setup.

      https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/04/170406102621.htm

    • Soooooooooo this pattern could hang around awhile if I’m understanding quasi-resonant

  • Bobby ( San Carlos)

    92 degrees Fahrenheit out right now which is downright insane. We have broken the record for hottest day ever on May 2 which was 89 degrees in 1966 by 3 degrees

  • Thor

    Welp…have a confession to make…I am moving to Montana in 10 days. Nothing against California weather or you fine folks at WW…and not that I have been here (WW) that long or made much (any) of an impact but after 22yrs in CA its time to cash in my chips and move to a place that is near and dear to my heart. I hope you dont mind me stopping by and regaling of tales from the high country or some of the most changeable weather in the country…as they say in MT; if you dont like the weather- wait 5 minutes- it will change. I will be keeping an eye on you and will be back likely regularly as we still have family and friends here…and I will need to go to the beach at least a few times a year.

    We took a mini-road trip to Point Reyes this weekend to say goodbye. Beach days are always extra special on Mondays and the passing humpbacks agreed.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9cf522bbdb1609566f5bb7bdda3ac3a928b752d10c56201b4ba78c1d7cb206cc.jpg

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5615492198d59b4f79939d4b94dc5d71f7f07413be579f1a69f50c387fd21050.jpg

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      What a nice way to say goodbye, enjoy Montana!

      • Thor

        Thank you!

    • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

      Montana has some breathtaking views as well. Hopefully you are moving close to one of these places.

      • Thor

        Yes- moving to Bozeman (will be one of the dreaded “californians” moving in) – about an hour from Yellowstone so views will abound.

        • They tell folks from California that the local bears are tame and quite friendly.

          • inclinejj

            They tell them to cover themselves in honey and pet the bears.

          • Pfirman

            And moose make good hat racks and buffalo love to cuddle and mountain lions will eat right out of your hand.

          • Thor

            lucky for me I know better. (warning graphic)

            https://www.facebook.com/todd.orr/videos/10210413734089030/

          • Pfirman

            Did he make the three mile walk out?

            Shock is a real threat.

          • Thor

            yes, he did.

        • inclinejj

          Tell everyone your from Reno. They don’t like people from Ca.

          • Thor

            indeed. The truth is I am actually from MN. That seems to go over a bit better 🙂

        • Thunderstorm

          Unlimited visibility and you can see the Milky Way again at night.

        • AlTahoe

          Make sure to let them know that without Californians moving in, their houses would have gone up 50k in the last 10 years instead of the 500k they have gone up. I looked at moving there when I was getting outbid by the foreign investors up here in Tahoe and I couldn’t even afford to buy in Bozeman.

          • Thor

            Indeed. Something tells me that would prolly prefer the cheaper houses but oh well. I was still able to sell my house in Marin and buy one twice as big for half the price 🙂

            The question is will I survive without a Trader Joes or Whole Foods- the horror! 🙂

          • AlTahoe

            Are you moving into the downtown area by the college or more rural? There was a huge difference in prices between downtown (where I wanted to live) and the four corners area. Bridger ski resort is all sorts of awesome.
            Make sure to take some video and photos of the giant hail you will encounter this summer.

          • Cap’n

            Epic thunderstorms and also cold in the winter that put anything in Tahoe to shame. There was a 17 day spell there when the lows were -5F or so and the highs were in the teens at best. But that Bridger blower is gooood. I used to have to take breaks an hour and a half in to get my toes working.

          • AlTahoe

            Yeah the cold there is no joke. At Big sky I had to wimp out and warm up in the lodge on multiple occasions as my California ski gear was not cutting it.

          • Thor

            I worked at Big Sky for a couple of seasons. Both years we had a couple of -30f below stretches…and temps of -15f.

            After 22yrs in CA I am scared I may of gone soft but at least I know what I am getting into…My CA born and raised wife? not so much 🙂

          • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

            A different state, but I will be in SagIe/Sandpoint Idaho for the eclipse in August. Would be totally awesome to see some big thunderstorms as well. . Just not on the day of the eclipse….

            Do you know if this area is condusive for T’s?

          • Cap’n

            Wish I knew more, but I’d guess someone else here knows the lay of the land better than me. I lived in Colorado then Montana back to back, but at the time I was working like a mad dog and playing hard in between. I wasn’t geeking out the way I do now. I miss the days when I just “let weather happen” instead of constantly scanning the horizon for my next fix of storms. My guess, you’ll have a good chance for Strong storms in August.

          • Thor

            I am in Bozeman city proper but not the cute old downtown. I little further south of MSU but back to open space. So still a lot more than it was 10yrs ago…but nothing compared to Bay area. But a lot of people complaining about cost of housing. I am the devil 🙂

    • Cap’n

      Right on Thor! I lived in Bozeman (Gallatin Gateway area) for 13 months. As much as I love where I’m at now, I often fantasize about how I can move back to Montana or Wyoming. Looking forward to your check-ins.

      • Thor

        Thanks Capn’ – I knew something was up with you 🙂 I’ll keep you posted.

    • annette johnson

      What an awesome sight! I’ve been reading some articles on how the humpback practices altruistic behavior by breaking up pods of Orcas going after prey. Most recently in Monterey Bay when they were attacking the calves of grey whales. Amazing animals!

      • Thor

        If you look closely there are actually 2 whales there. I was amazed at how close they were to shore. Just past the breakers maybe 150-200yards out…you could see their giant shadows on the sand bar. simply amazing. They kept coming. Over 2 days we saw several groups and likely missed a lot more.

        • annette johnson

          Ok, zoomed it in and saw there were two! What a gift for you to be able to see that before you start your new journey. I’m sure you will find the great state of Montana has a lot to offer. Best of luck!

    • click

      Enjoy Bozeman, I grew up there and it was an amazing 20 years. There is a lot to do around the area, you’ll enjoy it. Hyalite Canyon is a great close place to get some hiking, fishing, camping, backcountry skiing, ice climbing, and just about anything else ranging from easy to challenging. One thing I remember so well is watching the roaming thunderstorms that pop up and are very localized. I sure do miss it there, but the desert does have a different kind of beauty. Good luck!

      • Thor

        thanks. I remember that you lived there. I did too, actually, back in the early 90s- worked in the Park and at Big Sky for a couple of years so I know the area pretty well…kinda feels like going home a bit. But looking forward to really making it my home and raising my 3yr old there….thanks again!

  • Latest model runs pretty aggressive in developing thunderstorms Sat-Tues across much of California (ECMWF brings threat statewide; GFS more confined to interior NorCal but all of SoCal inc. coastal plain). This is a pattern with a very high potential to produce dramatic weather in at least a few places (right now, Bay Area looks like least favored region). I’ll be writing a blog post on Friday in response to this.

    • Bobby ( San Carlos)

      Dramatic weather? What are you referring to?

    • Of course the Bay Area is the least favored region. ?

      • AlTahoe

        Its off season up here in Tahoe and you can book a nice room for like $60. I say get up here and enjoy the thunder bumpers.

        • Bobby ( San Carlos)

          Your gonna get snow, not thunderstorms, snow levels r even suppose to be low in SoCal

          • AlTahoe

            Hold on to your weather hat as I am about to rock your world……….
            There is a good chance we will get both and maybe at the same time 🙂

          • Nate
          • Cap’n

            It’s funny how much love the Thundersnow gets. I run from it! I’ve only heard it twice, and both times I was in the back-country in almost whiteout conditions during spring storms. The first time was at 9K off Mt. Rose summit pass and it scared the crap out of me. The second time was maybe at 8K above Brockway Summit and again, it scared the crap out of me. But I love that Cantore video. Have you seen the remix song?

          • Nate

            I guess it all depends on the situation that you’re in. I’d be running from it too if I was in the backcountry at 9K! The remix is awesome, gotta love his excitement.

          • AlTahoe

            I think I remember you posting about the Mt Rose one two May’s ago? If was the same time I was driving over echo summit in the morning and encountered it during a whiteout. The entire forest turns pink/purple during thundersnow. Very cool but eerie looking.

        • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

          Wsh I could You think it’s worth asking the wife if I can take a little day trip while she is at home with the two week old and 2 year old?

          • AlTahoe

            Not a chance with a 2 week old 🙂
            Congrats by the way.

          • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

            Thanks. I could test my luck as it was my non-Indian wife who decided to give our son a middle name after the god of rain in Hindi. Indra.

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

        God I hate the monotony of the Bay Area weather. I know it’s why most people live here but they’re not weather enthusiasts.

        Thankfully we had a great winter to get me through the upcoming disappointment.

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          -It is 100 x worse in SoCal

          • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

            Agreed. Never lived in So Cal, but have visited many a time and it’s ALWAYS sunny and warm.

          • palmsprings

            And 1000 x worse in the Coachella Valley…

          • happ [Los Angeles]

            Are you kidding? At least Coachella valley gets thunderstorms if the monsoon season is decent. We hardly get anything west of the mountains during summer.

          • RunningSprings6250

            Maybe 10x realistically lol

  • Jim

    Well, apparently while I was in jury duty today (one month now), there was a wildland fire between Scotts Valley and Felton (Santa Cruz County). It was only about 1/4 to 1/2 acre but they say it burned like it was summer. After 80″+ of rain, a few days of hot weather is drying things out quickly.

    • Mt. Diablo is browning up fast, behind schedule, it usually is brown by my mid April birthday, so, improvement. Not so nice – insane amounts of extra vegetation and poison oak.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        Noticed the same thing Sunday, most of the hills around Mt Diablo are turning brown very quickly. After temps pushing 100 around Clayton today I’d imagine we’ll see very little green left on the hills.
        I don’t believe they’ve fully staffed the Mt Diablo (ECCFD) station to two engines yet.

      • Tuolumne

        It used to be that after a fairly wet winter it would stay green even longer than this.

    • Charlie B

      Jury duty for a month?

      • Cap’n

        Murder case?

        • annette johnson

          I heard it was the “Meadow Cat Caller” case. JUST KIDDING! ?

        • Jim

          Yes, vehicular homicide

      • Jim

        Yep, vehicular homicide…Im a alternate and it went to the jury this afternoon. After sitting through all this would have been nice to have a vote…but, that’s the way the system works.

        • Charlie B

          Sit there day after day, unable to talk to anyone about it, taking notes and listening intently. Then, there is : “Mr. Jim, we do not need an alternate, so thank you for your service. You are released and you have fulfilled your jury responsibility for the next two years. See the clerk on the first floor before you leave.”
          Did a verdict come it?

    • jstrahl

      My sympathies re jury duty.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Dodged 90’s here [88F] even though nearby stations were that warm. This is a solid week of very warm temps [mid-high 80’s w/ minimums in the 60’s]. I am looking forward to clouds and hopefully some showers on Sunday/ Monday. What a treat!

  • DelMarSD

    18z GFS is insane for SD county. Holy crap.

    • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

      Kind of conflicted – a good amount of rain would be great for all the obvious reasons. At the same time, the weeds choking the trails are starting to die and this could end up reversing that. Should be interesting either way!

      • DelMarSD

        Who cares about the weeds? Let it pour, baby!

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        One little rain [if we get anything] isn’t going to turn brown grass/ weeds to green again.

      • Tuolumne

        If they’re dying after a ~normal winter then they’re winter-spring annuals. Annuals are plants that live less than a year, go to seed, die, then come back the next year from seed. Late rains won’t bring these plants back.

    • Bobby ( San Carlos)

      .5-2 inches for May! impressive, wetter in May then March and April in Southern California, funky weather https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e695c19d4588b81732f64f2713de1cd144b8e1d1d67ad402cc4d96f722ed64b4.png

    • Nathan

      Most of that is like a week from now…I’m way skeptical.

      • “Quasi-Resonant” real interesting stuff may happen in CA.

        • Pfirman

          Let’s just hope it is not interesting in the way of the Chinese curse.

  • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

    Will this late season cutoff low likely bring severe weather to the Midwest after it departs?

    • annette johnson

      That is a good question. If it verifies all that energy has to go somewhere you would think.

    • matthew

      I will driving through TN, AR, OK and TX this weekend…so I hope the severe weather holds off for at least a few days…

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Quite likely…

  • jstrahl

    18Z GFS shows little precipitation aside from SoCal, especially south of LA, and this is for just a couple of days, less extensive than previous runs. Amazing to see 5 L’s along the coast with no green whatsoever around the 13th-15th. Dynamics without moisture, which is what i predicted. Of course, this being the GFS dealing with May cut-off lows, one run doesn’t set things in stone.

      • FolsomPrisonBlues

        I will take it! Would be a nice change from the early heat that has come on this past week.

      • jstrahl

        ? I don’t see much green, at least not in the Bay Area, seems like a SoCal and southern Valley event.

        • Yes you’re right. I thought you were including the general pattern itself for Central and SoCal and not just your area.

    • molbiol

      The operational GFS does not detect convection very well this far out in these type of setups. I’d focus more on the position of the low. I agree though that the GFS is further inland than the ECM and GEM which would make this more of a wind event followed by a Santa Ana event for Socal. Those wanting thunderstorms statewide should root for the ECM and GEM. A low position just west of Northern baja this time of year can cause severe weather

    • RunningSprings6250
      • Fairweathercactus

        South East LA County is right in the juice of that!

      • jstrahl

        I see little outside SoCal, oh and the Sierras.

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      I think WW noted earlier that we shouldn’t pay too much attention to the model precip runs. Its the cutoff low position and dynamics! I don’t think the models handle cutoff lows well…

      • jstrahl

        Hey, that’s what i said too, 🙂 see my last sentence.

  • palmsprings

    Recorded a toasty 104F today, very much looking forward to the 70s predicted Sun-Tue even if it doesn’t rain.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      When do you normally start to have highs at or over 100 degrees? I am guessing that it would be around the 2nd week of May on average.

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

    As you can see, The West Coast and Maine sees few days of thunderstorms while the South and the Ohio Valley sees many days with thunderstorms

    http://i.imgur.com/fKrGI.gif

    • RunningSprings6250

      Could you imagine having thunderstorms on average 1-2 times a week?!

      • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

        That would be great!

      • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

        Tampa is called the lightning capital of North America

      • Thor

        Growing up in MN, sometimes you hit those hot/humid stretches where every day there would be big nasty thunderstorms in the afternoon. Big Black anvils rising up out of the plains that bring 40 minutes of fury then the coast is clear for the evening…never seen anything remotely like that in CA.

    • Bobby ( San Carlos)

      They should have the Penninsula in the category, a thunderstorm every other year

    • weathergeek100

      Why does south Texas have so few?

      • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

        I don’t know why either, yet Wisconsin sees more frequent thunderstorms than South Texas!

        • Chris

          I would guess there is more instability in the higher terrain in Mexico therefore leaving south TX in a subsidence area (???)

      • Nathan

        My guess: fewer organized fronts make it that far south, which means any and all thunder has to come solely from summer convection. It’s already a pretty dry area, so the actual % probability is pretty low for T-storm coverage. Like Arizona in the monsoon, (also a lot of green in the low desert there), they probably get low-probability high-impact cells.

        • Exactly.

        • weathergeek100

          So what makes south Florida have so much? The reason I ask is because it’s on the same latitude. I know the sea breeze fronts in summer drive their near daily occurrence, but organized fronts also struggle making it that far south. Maybe the collision of the sea breezes really aid in them being the thunderstorm capital of the nation. You don’t really have collision of sea breezes in other parts of the nation, as you need more than one source of water and it needs to be warm water.

          I may have just answered my own question lol.

          • Nathan

            Maybe. Could also simply just be that there is way way more moisture, and therefore convective energy, in Florida. Most of the time sensible weather travels W to E, and west of south Texas is desert, so most of the moisture influx has to come from the Gulf, which only happens under certain conditions.

            In Florida in summer, doesn’t matter which way the wind is blowing; south, east, west, it’s a much more moist feed, and as soon as it hits that landmass heats up like crazy thru the day leading to T-storms.

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      Sometimes its depressing that most of the US sees so many more thunderstorms than a lot of CA, but at the same time it makes them that much more exciting!

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

    86F again Wednesday and then the temperature crashes to 59F on Monday with rain.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a14c998dc076687a63b44290ba4592f6f20e1b40f5f7004cb82dbe71b8369070.png

  • Bobby ( San Carlos)
    • Dan the Weatherman

      We just had a strong late season Santa Ana event here in inland Orange County last weekend, and rain often follows a strong Santa Ana 1-2 weeks after the event, so this seems to have at least a chance of verifying. It would be nice to get a couple of rain events to close out the rainy season, considering it has been so dry down here since March 1.

    • Tangocity

      What does the forecast say for us? All I am seeing is 0.25 inches on Sunday here in SoCal. Is there something big beyond that?

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    86 for the high in Santa Maria.

    Arizona is going to be lovely next week. Might see some stray thunderstorms here and there.

  • Beth_ElDoradoHills

    We are waiting with eager nostalgia of those thunder storms they are forecasting. Reminds me of growing up in Connecticut when we would clap our hands in anticipation of lightning 🙂

  • John Curtis

    Why did John Curtis use May 15 as check-in date?

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      I forecasted this cutoff low many moons ago, read up

    • Bombillo1

      Good question. He could have use Dec 15th and effect the same amount of enlightenment.

  • Bombillo1

    I understand resonance but not getting quasiresonance. Seems like a better term is needed. Resonating a little bit, transitory resonance, looks like resonance but isn’t. What are we really describing with quasiresonance ???

  • HighWater

    Why are there so few people working on Oroville? Why did Brown take our tax money to supposedly fix the damn, yet keeps all of this hidden?

    The 4 contractors who bid for the job have seen what’s in those documents about what’s wrong with the dam, and when everyone is keeping there mouth shut, it ain’t good.

    This is not going to end well. The dam itself is looking green

    • Chatman

      Contracting for a large job like the Oroville dam repair is a HUGE undertaking. It will get started soon enough.

      • inclinejj

        Contracts have been granted. Reconstruction is underway.

  • RunningSprings6250

    “It almost seems like this May storm is trying to make up for the lack of storms in March and April.”

    LOL yes!!

    • Tazmanian

      not sure what you mean by the lack of storm for April i had all most 8″ of rain for April wish is well above normal ended April with 7.99″ of rain

      the only two be low normal rain fall moth where nov and MAR

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

        I think he is referring to the 2/3 of the state south of you…

      • weathergeek100

        In southern CA, nearly zero amounts of rain fell in that period. I wouldn’t be surprised is it was the one of the record driest march through April periods ever.

        • RunningSprings6250

          Definitely my driest in 10 years recording here…by far…

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)
    • DelMarSD

      Nice.

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      This would pump the brakes on the early start to the fire season.

  • Shane Ritter

    Just for fun/fantasy, I’ve been thinking about next winter. Reading around, looking at analogs, and SSTA, it appears as thoughe 17-18′ might be wetter than this winter. Just a few thoughts, SSTA are looking good (cool blob, warmth of SA coast, cool Indian ocean). If this were a sort of repeat of 81-83′, then 82-83′ was the wetter winter. Sun spot activity is low, and the current Atmospheric patterns seem locked into place (the RRR lasted 2 years, so why shouldn’t this new pattern) granted I’m no meteorologist, and things could change alot in the next 3-5months, I think it’s fun to speculate. Will we have an average winter, dry, or a boon? I’m guessing 175% precip in the central Sierra and April. 1 snowpack of 155% next year.

    • Chris

      I’ve been thinking the same thing.
      Ifthe current anomalies in the N PAC continue into next winter on top of an El Niño, that would yield an even steeeper tempurature gradient in the Pacific.

    • Dan weather maniac

      I saw in a chart the other day that wet winters tend to run in 3-4 year cycles (similar to dry ones) so I’m thinking we have a good shot at another wet one…. though how wet I have no guesses. I’m hopeful though.

  • Patrick from Stockton

    I noticed the 00z and 06z GFS is now showing another low coming in right after this cut off low around the 10th, possibly another behind it too for Norcal. Nice….

  • PRCountyNative

    “Like winter, a storm of Golden State 3s is coming.” from CBS Sports NBA

    I think someone at CBS Sports is reading Weather West.

  • Rusty Rails
    • Tazmanian

      rafting any one

    • Nathan

      What is that 3rd photo of? Haven’t seen those falls…

      • Rusty Rails

        I *think* that’s Grouse Creek if I remember correctly. It’s about 4 mins east of Yosemite View Lodge.

        • Nathan

          Cool the way it just plunges out of the forest – reminds me of the tropics.

          • Rusty Rails

            Yeah I was surprised to see it that robust. Pretty cool indeed.

        • I think you meant west 😉 It’s really cool when it flows!!
          Hiway 140

          • Rusty Rails

            Nope, it’s east.

          • Danlyle (Mariposa)

            Correct. Yosemite View Lodge is outside the park (El Portal), which puts Grouse Creek Falls to the East. In relation to Yosemite Lodge, within Yosemite Valley (now called Yosemite Valley Lodge ), it would be West.

          • Rusty Rails

            Thanks, I was on the move earlier and couldn’t provide your excellent detailed explanation! The ridiculous revolving property names within the Valley likely make it confusing which no doubt resulted in his geography flip.

    • Danlyle (Mariposa)

      https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv/?site_no=11266500

      Looks like the warmer weather ahead will push the diurnal cycle higher. Housekeeping Camp will certainly be wetter. The Melt 2017!

    • mosedart (SF)

      How packed is the park right now? I was thinking of going next weekend

  • mattzweck

    Here high desert Lancaster area high cirrus clouds streaming by. It’s already about 70 out.

  • AlTahoe
    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Water-skiin’ conditions coming.

      • Bombillo1

        I’m guessing lake surface temps will be 2 to 3 degrees cooler than last year at this time.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Curious to see the fluctuations in lake temps during seasonal melt comparing this past 6 years to this season’s.

          • Chris

            Sand Harbor Beach was between 70-72 degrees in August since the drought began….. minus 2015 when we had a few days of all-day stratiform rain and highs barely 60 ?

          • AlTahoe

            Yeah we got spoiled with the water temps the last 3 years. The shallow shelf at the end of my street was getting up to the low 80’s the last 2 years. Water is going to be way colder this season and the warmest parts will be lucky to hit 70F. Center of the lake should stay in the 50’s.

      • inclinejj

        Lake lice season.

    • inclinejj

      Pup gets his 3rd set of shots Monday. Can’t wait to start bringing him with me!

      • AlTahoe

        What kind of puppy did you get? Tahoe has a huge Parvo problem and I still see tons of puppies at the dog beach by my house. There owners are usually the type that believe in shots of any kind for dogs or humans 🙁

  • CHeden

    Here in the north Valley, temps this afternoon may reach near records for the date with mid-90’s forecast for Redding and Red Bluff. Fortunately , the extreme heat will not last, as the HP ridge now over California migrates east. Upstream, a large area of LP is setting up over the west-cent Pacific, which in turn will pump up another ridge off the west coast with a deep trough dropping down the eastern flank over the west coast…eventually cutting off over Cent/SoCal with the CoL hanging out into early next week.
    ATTM, the initial surge of moisture associated with the forming cutoff will overspread NorCal early on Thursday as the mid-level cap breaks down, with some pretty impressive MUCAPE values showing good instability developing… mainly over the mountains. Depending on available moisture, widespread showers and T-storms are likely, but with TPW’s briefly spiking >1″, there is a reasonable chance that a stray storm or two may drift over the north Valley from the west late on Thurs. aft. (see forecast sounding from just SW of Redding).
    Once the trough drops south on Friday, the atmosphere will stabilize rather quickly as temps cool by up to 20 degrees (as compared to today) with wrap-around flow moving in at mid-levels to keep things cool and mostly cloudy.
    The CoL over SoCal will be slow to eject, and may not exit the area until Mon-Tues. of next week, thus allowing ample time for some ST moisture to work into the low and trigger a good chance for some decent precip in SoCal especially around Sat.-Sun.
    However, the exiting CoL will not end of the chances for precip in the MR and LR for NorCal. By around the 10th, a more zonal flow sets up in back of the exiting CoL, with a possible weak AR event starting to take shape over the NE Pacific with a large area of LP over the GOA and HP underneath working in tandem to re-invigorate the jet stream (see 2nd image). This new pattern looks to be a rather stagnant one, with precip chances lasting maybe as long as the 16th as a series of cool lows and waves trek east over the PacNW. All in all, most of California will be seeing some precip over the next two weeks or so…with as much as 2″ liquid in the mountains possible (see 3rd image).
    Perhaps the most interesting aspect of this mid-May pattern will be the unusually cold air that might be moving in around the 12th, as 500mb heights gradually fall to <536dm as far south as the Bay Area….which if verified, would drop SL's possibly down to below 4k' in isolated locations…especially over the north/cent Sierra.
    Finally, in the LR, the Pacific set up will be featuring LP dominating the GoA with suppressed HP over the east/cent Pacific creating a robust W_E jet aimed right at NorCal (see last image) Now, whether or not this strong jet will make it all the way to the coast is a major question, and wayyyy to early for any reasonable assessment of the possible impacts.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c5fa3870418c3fe08b2f6cdac7768f6da6b8391e5f7bfcafe48e9137999c2742.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/07047d8316fc727900e0525398966de384a90034aeb343e14e4013edc8924975.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5662bdecd18daf512a65a342aff08d15c4d90c1858623273649364cd86f3f091.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/143c1f8185f2d7bc2ce806b9b067b7f0798b6d23fc3f174c49c4cf3117fb6f3f.gif

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      Excellent breakdown, thank you…This is the pattern I was hoping we’d end the wet season with. Excitied to see how it materializes.

      • CHeden

        Thanks to you fer the nice feedback.
        Right now, I’m looking most closely at the setup around the 10-16th. If the GFS is to be believed, the parent GoA low will be tracking NW-SE just north of California around the 12th. The parent low will be following close behind a potent precursor low/shortwave, and there is ample reason to think that something unusual may spin up around this time frame with both good forcing, colder air and increasing vorticity present.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      This season’s breakdown is noticeably similar to the way the season started however a massive NPAC ridge is no longer a player in the game and this is just the -NAO having a stand-still influence on wave traffic in the mid & upper-latitudes. Coming out of this string of unsettled weather we should begin seeing the summer heat after week 3. I’ll be surprised for whatever occurs after that.

      • CHeden

        Interesting you say that. I was just doing some background on the Songda-setup last mid Oct. In several ways, the projected Pacific setup does have lots of similarities…except there is no “Songda” in the pipeline. Very curious to see a Fall pattern in the Spring, fer sure. What I’m not sure of, is this a sign of continuing persistence of the Pacific jet periodically breaking through the normal east Pac ridge, or whether this is a whole new re-loading of the Pacific that’s going on?

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Curious at your points as well, this would be conducive for quite the unstable setup across the state.

        • Patrick from Stockton

          Wouldn’t this be something if this lasts in to the first of June? I remember several years ago, may have been spring 2006 or 7 when we saw rain continuing in to the 1st week of June. The way this year has been going I would not be surprised if that happens.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            Memorable spring.

    • Bombillo1

      A solid HR over the center field fence. Thanks.

    • jstrahl

      Thanks once again for excellent analysis.

    • inclinejj

      You should be toasty today Sacramento is looking at 93-94 today.

      You haven’t posted much I was wondering if the Raiders fans in the Bay Area captured you. =)

      • CHeden

        Burnt toast (at least for the date).

        • inclinejj

          It was 66 cruising through Dixon and Davis this morning.