California hits precipitation record as spring warming commences

Filed in Uncategorized by on April 16, 2017 2,564 Comments

Record wet in Northern California; huge snowpack threatens floods

Record wet conditions occurred across wide swath of interior West this winter, including parts of NorCal. (WRCC)

It’s official: the Northern Sierra “8-Station Index”–comprised of 8 precipitation observation sites in the northern half of the Sierra Nevada watershed–has eclipsed 1982-1983 to become the wettest Water Year (Oct-Sep) period on record! Even more remarkable is that this record has been set so early in the calendar year–even though May-September is the dry season in California, some additional precipitation in this region is all but inevitable in the coming months, which will push this record total even higher. Statewide precipitation metrics are not far behind. Precipitation in 2016-2017 is closely paralleling 1982-1983, and stands a good chance at breaking the long-standing record later this year.

All of this beneficial, drought-busting water, though, hasn’t been evenly distributed throughout the state. While Southern California has been wetter than average this winter, precipitation accumulations have not been nearly as anomalous as in the northern portion of the state (the Los Angeles basin, for example, is hovering just slightly above average for the Water Year to date).

The state of California is closely tracking its wettest Water Year on record–with more precipitation in the forecast. (CNAP)

The record wet conditions, however, have not been confined to California–a band of record or near record wetness extends from the northern coast of the San Francisco Bay Area inland across the Northern Sierra and then further across the interior West (as far east as western Wyoming and Montana!). This band of exceptional seasonal precipitation is the product of a persistently active and somewhat southerly storm track this winter, which brought frequent atmospheric rivers to the coast.
California snowpack is also extremely impressive this spring, though (as has been previously noted) it has for the most part lagged total precipitation due to the relative warmth that has co-occurred with this record wet Water Year. The tremendous amount of accumulated water in the high Sierra snowpack is just what the doctor ordered with respect to drought relief, but may pose some problems in the coming weeks if it melts too quickly. Growing concerns over major snowmelt flooding have already triggered pre-emptive disaster declarations, especially east of the crest along the Highway 395 corridor and in far western Nevada. It remains to be seen just how much flooding may result from melting of this snowpack–and it will largely depend on just how warm temperatures get over the next few weeks.

Precipitation, snowfall, and reservoir storage in California all well above average–but snowpack greatly lags overall precipitation. (CNAP)

 

Yet more precipitation next 3-4 days, but then major drying/warming trend

Additional precipitation is expected across northern and central California this week. (tropicaltidbits.com)

A couple more modest spring systems are expected to bring additional precipitation to Northern and Central California over the next few days. The southern third of California will likely stay mostly dry, with some showers possible as far south as Los Angeles County. A few more thunderstorms could rumble across the Central Valley, and some additional accumulating snowfall is likely at the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada. But by next weekend, there is multi-model ensemble agreement that conditions will dry out and warm up pretty rapidly as a strong ridge builds directly overhead. Temperatures could rise to 10-15+ degrees above mid-April averages by next week, which will likely accelerate snowmelt. It’s still to early to say whether there may be a subsequent pulse of snowmelt flooding downstream, but the upcoming warming trend certainly bears watching from that perspective.

Model ensembles have been strongly suggesting a spring heat wave is likely in the 5-10 day period. (tropicaltidbits.com)

 

 

El Niño may be back in the picture this year (yes, already)

The multi-model ensemble mean strongly suggests the development of El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific by autumn. (CPC)

There are increasingly strong signs that El Niño may be making a comeback in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. With all the usual caveats (namely, that we’re still on the wrong side of the Spring Predictability Barrier), there is excellent multi-model agreement that a significant event may begin to unfold in the coming months. That would be pretty eyebrow-raising, since it has only been a year since the last big El Niño. It’s still far too early to discuss California implications, but if the current outlook holds then I would expect warm SSTs to begin having an influence as early as this coming summer. I’ll continue to follow developments in the tropical Pacific in coming blog posts. Stay tuned!

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  • Cap’n
    • AlTahoe

      I am assuming you meant me? It was dumping in South Lake all the way up to Chimney beach. Then not a single flake from there to Incline Village.

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    We got .50 since Sunday which is more than the NWS predicted from this storm. This storm did look like it was aimed more at Central CA than Northern CA. It was pouring this morning on the way to work

  • jstrahl

    .05 inches in drip earlier today. .29 inches yesterday, 4/17/17, so total of .55 inches since noon Sunday, more than was forecast. April total now 3./37 inches, season total 40.10 inches, pre-’90 equivalent of 44.11 inches, just about like… 1981-2, interesting given the discussion earlier about that wet season.

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

    0.21 the last 24 hours. 0.46 since Sunday. 1.90 for April. Total for season now just over 25 inches in the Foothills of Evergreen San Jose. A great total and would have been higher this years.mix was fewer ARs and more GOA storms.

    However, that probably would not have helped break the drought as much.

  • Howard Goodman

    Another report on plastic bucket VS rain gauge , Rain gauge 6.6 bucket 7

  • Bombillo1

    Welcome to the Pleistocene. Generally, a few degrees cooler, wetter with the dampness lingering etc. Snow at the highest elevation remains which if continued would re-form glaciers. All we are missing are Short Face bears and a few Shasta Slouths, which have maintained a remnant population in Sacramento.

    • There needs to be a 1951-52 redux before I’m on board. For now I’ll take a PDO regime shift

    • Pfirman

      Slouches, sloths, not much difference, but, yeah.

      • Bombillo1

        I was going to correct that but WTH. Spell check did not save me.

        • Pfirman

          I think you coined a new term for Sac pols. Even catches the tilt to the south.

      • inclinejj

        The Shasta Lemuria. We can’t forget them.

    • Admode (Susanville)

      Pygmy Pronghorns would also be fun to watch run around.

    • Nate

      Don’t forget the erupting Sutter Buttes…

      • Pfirman

        Throw in Shasta, Lassen, Konocti, and probably more to complete the picture.

        • Nate

          And Long Valley. Would have been interesting to be here when that happened.

          • Pfirman

            Getting pretty far from Shasta, but, yes.

      • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

        Man it would be amazing to see what the local deserts would have looked like with lakes, streams, and pinion pines everywhere!

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      There is an interesting theory that humans couldn’t really populate North America until the short faced bears finally died off….

  • FWIW Shasta is pretty full, more so than a month ago. Maybe holding some back to let the river level drop as well as calculating watershed inflows to minimize as much as possible outflow? Millerton has been draining for expected runoff probably knowing they need storage capacity to slow outflow. Here’s historical averages for 1998, 2006, 2011. Current for 2017
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c5e5a94fed70ff02d113a62c89738473c5d73a9c544d4dd739a3a9b2b29d212c.jpg

    • Craig Matthews

      Nice comparison. It is also good that they’ve released water from foothill lakes in the central and southern sierra, such as Don Pedro, McClure, etc. Don Pedro was 97% in late Feb. They’re gonna need a lotta room..

      • Pfirman

        Is that why Millerton is low?

        • My best guess because it’s lower than the other years and was 120% of historical average on March 1st. There’s a lot of runoff coming down from the hills there.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Good ol’ Millerton. I wish I had a way to see how Hensley was doing, lived up the road from that lake and when it was nearly a puddle in 07-08. Never really recovered before I moved away.

      • http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/reservoirs/RES
        Can’t “see” but it’s capacity is listed

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          Federal water contractors are getting 100% water allocation this year. First time in 10 years. The announcement is a little late for some but will gladly take the water. Especially since all that carryover water was lost

          • I’m sure someone talked to the 12 smelt in the Delta for approval first. 😉

          • Bob G (Gustine)

            Lol. They got swept out to the Pacific ocean

          • ben

            He who smelt it delta it.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Thanks so much for this Bill, I actually really oughta go see it as it was a great spot to fish years ago for the locals.

  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

    The last three waves of rain including the first one that brought 1-2 feet of snow to the resorts has brought me .51 inches in the last week. 39.8 inches of rain this year, when we hit 40 inches I will have doubled my rainfall. Interesting to note that the stations that have very similar totals to me that have been mentioned in this discussion have got a lot more rain this week.
    Stats
    April total (so far): 2.66 inches
    Rain last 7 days: 51 inches
    Rain last 24 hours: .15 inches
    % of normal rainfall: 199%
    ps: sadly some how there is no rainfall totals to compare my rainfall to past historic years even though my town has been around since 1925!

  • Howard Goodman

    For the month of April so far got 13,6 inches

  • Admode (Susanville)

    Here is a photo series of california’s drought and recovery: http://digg.com/2017/california-drought-super-bloom-photos

    • Admode (Susanville)

      The national geographic link is pretty cool.

  • mattzweck
  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Currently: Light straitiform rain beginning to fall
    64°F outside/58°F dew point
    Last system with measureable precipitation was on 4/8 with 0.14″.
    Average for a season in Camarillo is 15″, & I am currently at 13.22″ still since the tap turned off. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9bb97c0fd1bca030ad128d581016a4641b1e190166645db78d7fd09f93a8b9f2.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ad758e54d500a4d6b3e1e5854072d904b2ef9783fb5c8ed7425ee3516b40df2a.jpg

  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

    San Carlos rainfall:
    October rainfall : 4.11 inches of rain
    Days of rain: 11

    November rainfall: 1.72 inches of rain
    Days of rainfall: 10

    December rainfall : 4.49 inches of rain
    Days of rain: 9

    January rainfall: 13.58 inches
    Days of rainfall: 18

    February rainfall: 10.27 inches
    Days of rainfall: 19

    March rainfall: 2.97
    Days of rainfall: 10

    April rainfall: 2.68
    Days of rainfall: 8

    Yearly total: 39.82
    Days of Rain: 85 days of rainfall in last 200 days since October 1st

    • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

      Orcutt, CA rainfall:

      Sept rainfall: 0.00″
      Days of rainfall: 0 days

      Oct rainfall: 1.39″
      Days of rainfall: 8 days

      Nov rainfall: 1.40″
      Days of rainfall: 5 days

      Dec rainfall: 2.84″
      Days of rainfall: 11 days

      Jan rainfall: 7.00″
      Days of rainfall: 16 days

      Feb rainfall: 6.69″
      Days of rainfall: 19 days

      March rainfall: 1.17″
      Days of rainfall: 6 days

      April rainfall: 1.13″
      Days of rainfall: 4 days

      Water year total: 21.62″
      Total days of rainfall: 69 days

      • I still find it strange that the official gauge here regularly shows more rain than my back yard gauge. Mine is at about 19′ for the season. Not bad, no matter which gauge you are looking at. January seems to have the largest difference, as mine was only 6.21″

      • redlands

        where is your stats for July,August — there missing !!!!

        • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

          July and August are part of last years water year (September-August 2015)

          • redlands

            I go by a July 1st start date – which I have been using for over 35 years — changing the rules makes comparison hard to do

    • redlands

      where is your stats for July,August,Septem — there missing !!!!

    • redlands

      what happened to July,August,September stats ???? I go by a July 1st start date — Has your start date always been October ????

      • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

        It didn’t rain in those months, I’m only including months with rain in it

  • molbiol

    Lancaster CA total rainfall since Oct 1: 6.79 inches (slightly below average)
    FWIW: In Jan of 1993 Lancaster received 7+ inches in that month alone
    In Jan of 1995 Lancaster received almost 6 inches in that month alone
    In Feb of 1992 Lancaster picked up 5.8 inches in that month alone
    The last appreciable snow event was in Jan 2011 and the last major snow event was in Dec 2008. Very unusual since snow events in Lancaster usually occur once every 2-3 years (its been six years and counting now).
    Yes, we live in a desert. No, 2016-2017 is not even close to the wettest year on record for THIS LOCATION (I’m not talking about the whole state so don’t even start with the bullshit). Just goes to show that California is a very large state.
    Note: 1992-1993 was preceded by a large volcanic eruption (Pinatubo) which may have played a role in that bizarre year’s weather. No sense posting 500mb plots for 1993 since its been done before

    • Not a hint of whine in your post. Some say Pinatubo did affect and 1992-1993 had everything El Nino except for the Nino 3.4 box being neutral.

      • molbiol

        Not whining, just stating Data and facts. I actually enjoy sunny warm weather once April rolls around

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)
  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    What a downpour this morning.

  • Craig Matthews

    Just had a solid hour of non-stop heavy rain. Creek is now up and running muddy again. Winds are picking up out of the nw and the final rainband with the coldfront is pushing through the area.

  • scott

    A quick quarter to third of an inch all across Kern County this morning. It was very humid earlier and now that the rains have passed, the temperatures are cooler and less humid.

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

    Its 62F with a dew point of 61F. It is quite humid today!

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Under a warm front according to the weather map. We should lose the humid air once the west winds kick up.

  • scott

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/77457b0130dfac73844e53a3c955eeccb00164864cea44aaf7f6dab37dc273f4.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/15aa3544280c6389bfa0601398bb07c3e47e7d8fcc7e1204d4193119d539e233.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4873dee552e585de503be9f25cdbcc48ca8d57f2279c0873f9e02481b5a35209.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/93952948a845475c74d27bd4d927cf1138d481cc1adc72d948993f871d456479.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f8d019506a46cfbb5a536819012101ad574041e8b6a8ec71057aed16814433ba.jpg

    The wife and I spent a few days in Mammoth over the weekend for our anniversary. She doesn’t ski, so we did other stuff, though I did get to do some snowshoeing in town while she was getting a massage on Sunday. It was very windy and rained all day there but dry in the 395 below the Sherwin Summit. Some city trails and clear of snow and others aren’t, though above town its all snow for the most part.

    We did a side trip to Convict Lake was moving fast with small white caps from the wind blowing. Its not frozen over now and the access trails are clear of snow, only 15 minutes from downtown Mammoth Lakes. Lots of trees that lose leaves, so in the summer I bet its awesome! Most lakes except Crowley and June are frozen, making opening day for fishing tricky. There will be a bunch of people cramming 3 lakes.

    • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

      Mammoth Mountain is killing it this year, 18-26 inches of snow from this storm and 60 inches away from the record, no mountain biking mammoth this summer

    • cthenn

      Speaking of the East side, I really hope South Lake fills up again this year. It’s looked rather sad for a few years now.

    • Danlyle (Mariposa)

      Convict is always awesome, any season. Fall colors are our favorite.

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0f8677495bd27fa1babd660a7f2e6cd67bb50e9466d59f057935e45c162fd93c.jpg

      • Tuolumne

        I was going to post just that. Also, there’s now an accessible trail at the main parking area, so people with mobility issues can enjoy the lake. If you’re more mobile, take the trail around the lake which is a nice bite-sized hike a couple of miles long.

        Between the water lapping on the shore, the wind in the pine needles, the quivering aspen leaves, and the clear blue water, this is a great place to unwind and let nature calm you down if you can go there when it’s not crowded.

  • Charlie B

    Tahoe is currently at 6228′. The maximum “legal” elevation is 6229.1′. If it gets above that (or “when” it gets above that) what happens? Does the lake become illegal and sent somewhere or put in time out? Seriously, does the water then just flow down the Truckee? Does it go over or around the dam? Can the dam hold back a lot more water so the lake just comes up and takes out some beaches and docks? Using the equation “inflow=outflow” does that water…when the snow starts to melt…just head down the Truckee to Reno and points east?
    Probably dumb questions. Any smart answers? Al? Cap’n? Matthew? Rob?

    • Cap’n

      Funny you mention that. They’ve had six gates open for the past several weeks letting water into the Truckee. When I drove over this morning it looked like 9 gates were open. The river is pumping right now between Truckee and Tahoe City, imagine it down river. I plan on snapping a photo from River Ranch Lodge later, the bike path along the river is going to be swallowed soon.

      • matthew

        There is genuine white water (class 3-ish) once it starts dropping down the hill to Reno. The section around Floriston/Farad is really pumping. It will be nuts once the melt really gets started (next week?). I am planning on checking out the falls in Shirley Canyon this weekend once we have had a couple days of warming.

        • Cap’n

          The hike up Shirley might be quite an adventure still. You’re right, Floriston area has legitimate rapids right now and should for months.

      • Charlie B

        There appears to be 17 gates. Cap’n says 9 are open. It doesn’t look like the dam is going anywhere. There is a lot of water that is going to be coming into and then out of Tahoe. Once out of Tahoe there is not much to stop it as it heads to Pyramid.

    • Hardcort

      The legal limit was more of a policy that was adopted around 1907 as waters were creeping up to the properties of lakefront owners. Powers to be at the time established 6229.1′ as the maximum legal legal limit. I don’t believe there is an issue with waters building up against the dam when heights exceed the legal limit the legal limit has been exceeded on occasion over the years

      The river is flowing at 1,240 cf/s which may not seem like much but the stream runs shallow leaving the lake for the first few miles and the water is less than a foot from the lower points on the bike path. Anyone on a raft would have to duck just to clear a minor bridge or two, just for perspective. On the lee side of the crest there is 70-80 inches of water at 8,000 feet. I

      • Cap’n

        Good info. One of those bridges you mention looks to be about 10-12″ above the water at the moment. The floaters with their CVS rafts will be in grave danger if things keep up this way.

      • Charlie B

        The 1,240 figure is Tahoe outflow? The 4/17 reading at Farad on the Truckee (the benchmark reading) was 4570 cfs. That seems to mean that the Truckee right now is getting only 25-30% of its downstream flow from Tahoe?

        • Hardcort

          Right, Tahoe then bear, Squaw, silver, donner creeks and the flow out of Boca

          • Charlie B

            And Prosser Creek and Martis Creek. Prosser includes, I think, both Independence and Prosser itself. Boca includes Stampede. Martis Lake was designed for flood protection.
            This might be a whack-a-mole situation soon.

          • matthew

            Minor correction – Independence flows into Stampede.

          • Charlie B

            It all ends up in the Truckee I guess. So it’s Independence, Stampede and Boca. I think I recall that Independence is (or was) emergency drought storage.

          • matthew

            Yup. Once they raise the dam at Stampede there should be plenty of reserves for Reno…assuming they can get it filled. Would have been nice to have that extra 12′ this year.

          • Cap’n

            If the snow pack is what someone said it might be on Lola, Independence and Stampede have a lot of water coming at them.

          • matthew

            I am sure that they will be overflowing this year. They are in the process of raising the dam at Stampede by 12 feet – to be completed in October 2018. Would have been nice to have that capacity now.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        IIRC the “legal limit” on the lake has been an issue for many years. It’s caused issues in the past; when The Truckee was flooding in 97 but the Water Master was required to dump the water form Tahoe based on the laws as they were written. I know in the past some of the river rafting companies have asked for water to be held back and dumped out June-August to help with their businesses. Granted this year I don’t imagine that will be an issue.

        I believe the “legal limit” is a very convoluted law with many agencies involved 2 sates, a few water districts, USFS, and a Native American tribe all have a say in how the water flows and when/where.

  • JGold
  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

    Its raining but there is no clouds under me anymore. Weird

    • Charlie B

      Normally when clouds are under me it isn’t raining. I start to worry when there are clouds over me. Maybe it’s just me, I dunno.

      • Tuolumne

        It’s just you. I’m on cloud nine and I’ve got plenty of rain.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Have you ever seen the rain coming down on a sunny day? 🙂

  • Harpo (Chico)

    Here’s NASA article saying that the water content in the in the Tuolumne River Basin snowpack this year is greater than the content from last four years combined:

    https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2017-109&rn=news.xml&rst=6815

    • mbmattcor (TD 6400′)

      Wow, thx for sharing. They had me at 80 feet deep.

  • Tazmanian

    .73″ for today i think that a warp up for this event

    3 day rain fall is 2.14″ here

    • TheNothing

      0.0 for today, I think that’s a wrap for this event:)

  • mattzweck
  • Fairweathercactus

    Looks like we will be in store for the warmest weather since November 9th 2016 will be on the way. Mid 90’s for Whittier. Whittier had only had trace amounts of rain this Spring and we will be stuck with this. I have noticed that early heatwaves tend to lead to cooler summers. This is very true for the month of June. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a7ea7b2c17bb50a2723c3266b338d04f9cf3b355a183c1e85ba1c681a1f15eb2.jpg

  • Admode (Susanville)
    • Bombillo1

      it’s back. That’s when you know we had a good water year.

  • Cap’n

    The Truckee between Alpine Meadows and Tahoe today. As was mentioned below this part is fed strictly from Tahoe, it’s above Squaw and Donner Creek as well as other creeks from the reservoirs lower. The past several weeks 6 gates were open, looks like 9 or 12 today. Even to the naked eye the river is running higher today. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2fd9e799deb1e2c7240b6739598ca0cceb0c3d38ee330d906897a6a8b7e06052.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ccae0e6687c226ded521d912a5f812dd6b66590d2250a9133ccf90dd3e74a767.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ec9c8721c2eb14395c7d779db938520295945cb904d1552a16f307fdb58a4e30.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/06e3d73d0f581963f1e8985e3e4e7a3694fc5c8e2953b2fc18b23bbb608922d4.jpg

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Certainly not ready for the casual rafter towing their six pack of beer behind their raft to keep it cold…

  • Shane Ritter

    So, the models are on board with a weak trough on Tuesday/Wednesday next week. Then the Euro Brings a pretty strong/cold trough at the end of the month. So, moral of the story, enjoy this nice weekend, for it may not last. As a fly fisherman, this season has been rough. Whether its been massive storms, flooding, high water, the crazy wind we have had, or snow so deep places arent accessible, its been a rough fishing winter. Ive had so few quality days since October. Now, with spring here, high water will make most places really tough to fish for a while. August-October though will be amazing fishing this year! The drought was awful and i never want it back, but man there was some really nice Mid January fish days back then! lol. And this year for some reason has been extra bad at bringing storms in on Monday ( my one day off).

    • Tazmanian

      how ever the GFS is not on board with the strong/cold through at the end of the month so the Euro is nothing more then a out liner in tell models come in better agreement

      • Cap’n

        I don’t always check the models, but when I do I prefer the Euro.

        • Shane Ritter

          My thoughts exactly. Euro has been better in the 7-10 day all winter.

        • Microbursts

          I prefer dos equis ???

      • Jim

        Who’s to say the GFS isn’t the outlier ?

        • SacWx

          the outliner*

          • Jim

            Outlier….a person or thing situated away or detached from the main body or system.

          • Jim

            Outliner…a computer application that produces a hierarchically arranged outline of the logical structure of a text document.

    • CHeden

      Believe me when I say I hear you. My fly lines are developing memory, I’m afraid…quite opposite from their owner. Not even thinking of the Hat Creek opener this year, even with flows somewhat mitigated. Gonna be a Spring/Summer of Rubber legs and other big offerings. At least a couple of months (at least) till the rivers up here clear enough for some decent shore action. The real bummer is the wild ‘bows on the lower Sac are starting their spawning season, which have been very productive over the years as the fish move onto the streamside shallow runs to do their thing.

  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

    Where has Storm Master been through this active spring?

    • Cap’n

      I think he called the season a wrap a month or two ago.

      • David

        He just called it a warp a few comments ago…

        • Tazmanian

          i said it was a warp up for this event not for the season this yet but where getting closer and closer too runing out of gas here soon

      • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

        I think he was referring to SoCal, in which case he was sport on

        • redlands

          basically stopped in Feb-2017 in Southern Ca — what a big disappointment

    • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

      He changed his name to Tazmanian

      • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

        Cause he is the weather devil?

      • Tazmanian

        yes that is right i have chaged my name too Tazmanian has weather underground now used this forum mat so this will be the named i will used for now on

  • Nate

    Put together a video of the radar from the “big” storms this year. I wasn’t able to get any loops from January (missing data), but I made an animation of the AR on the 8th. The images came from both of these sites, but mostly from the first (it’s an awesome resource, check it out):
    http://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive/
    https://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov/maps/ncei/radar
    https://youtu.be/j4oujhFsxws

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Excellent Nate, great job. One loses track of how many events we have had this winter. This puts it all before us in 3:11.

    • David

      That was great! The storm on 12/15 produced over 6″ of rain here In Paradise.

      • Howard Goodman

        7.5 up above you

    • Howard Goodman

      The storm on 1/8 got 8 inches of rain then for the next three days on the 9th 6.5 on the 10th 4.5 and the 11th 6.5

    • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

      Storm on 2/17 was ridiculous, pressure at my station dropped to 29.00 inches of mercury and 982 MB. Storm on 3/5 was my favorite of the year , counted 8 separate hailstorms, awesome video!

      • Cap’n

        I agree, the March 5-6th snow storm was my favorite of the year up here. We had a friend staying up here who was stoked to score a “powder day.” We got dinner that night and as we drove home it was just barely starting to flurry. The next morning we woke up to 25″ of snow and it dumped most of the day. Unplowed street, high winds, no skiing. He was bummed but impressed by the storm. To me it was just another over producer in a season full of them.

      • Nate

        Yeah, that was by far my favorite system of the season too. I really liked the post frontal convection as it was super photogenic and produced a ton of hail.

    • Rainmaker (San Jose)

      not all heroes wear capes

    • alanstorm

      Nice job!
      Thanks for Jan 8, the big one we had up here. Would like to see the loop of Jan 10-11 hitting when the Eel R flooded at 310,000 cfs.
      Greatest flow of any Ca river this season?https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ba2080ceb15cfbd57a49069e6e5fb5fec17a73ae5402b66e7b3eb2e093338ad4.jpg

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      This is something I always wish there was an option to simply do, thank you so much for putting such a great video together. Seriously great work here. Had to take some serious patience I’m sure.

      • Nate

        Thanks 805! Feel free to share it on Twitter–you can give credit to Nate Wire.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Done & done ?? Great work!

    • CHeden

      Wow! Terrific idea to make these valuable loops, plus the effort required to tie in the imagery with the descriptions of the actual event. Very impressed, and thanks.

    • Craig Matthews

      This is such a cool video!!!

  • inclinejj

    The frogs are croaking like mad! Pacifica.

  • happ [Los Angeles]
  • happ [Los Angeles]

    It came close to raining in LA today but moisture stayed north in mainly Santa Barbara/ SLO counties. It was muggy.
    78/ 61

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      It sure was oddly muggy the last 2 afternoons…

  • Tazmanian

    i this need 0.01″ of rain and i will have 8″ of rain for the APR this may be the wettest APR i have seen in a long long time

  • Bombillo1
  • ben

    http://documents.latimes.com/report-finds-serious-design-construction-and-maintenance-defects-oroville-dam-emergency-spillway/
    Decent report on engineering deficiencies of spillway, light on words heavy on pics. Lacking geologic context though, the UNDERLYING cause of failure; cant properly engineer something if the rocks it’s built on are poorly understood.

    • lodule16

      IANAE, but I find this summary to be very succinct and very plausible. Most interesting may not be the diagnosis of the spillway failure in and of itself, but the indictment of pre-1970s engineering standards in the modern engineering context, and the fallacy of inspecting and maintaining pre-1970 infrastructure to satisfy outdated and dangerous standards especially after 50 years of wear and tear.

      • Pfirman

        I would not want to live in the flood zone of any dam given the story here.

        • Nathan

          Makes me not so much worried for the near future but, eg, 100 years from now when (not if) Hoover Dam and Glen Canyon dam start to fail. We will probably not be in any financial position to replace them, and…how on earth do you do that anyway??

          • ben

            Removing glen canyon dam would be smart, freeing up more water for powell.

          • Danlyle (Mariposa)

            Glen Canyon Dam is Lake Powell.

          • Bombillo1

            If we do not have the energy thing completely figured out by then (100 years) we are hosed no matter what.. With cheap, limitless energy de-sal is a beautiful thing that would permit rivers to flow to the sea again, irrigate the deserts etc. If we are worrying about how to clean up our black water in 100 years so there will be enough water for all, well, we deserve to go extinct.

          • Trump is requesting a private meeting in his office NAO, such sensibility is illegal under the decree of the grand Diktat. You are wanted for crimes of thoughtspeak.

      • ben

        Engineering and especially our understanding of geology have come a long way since 1968. Its not just dams that need reassessment, pfieffer bridge in big sur as another example of inadequate geologic understanding.

    • Here are a few photos I’ve found. Like lodule16 said IANAE either. In the B/W photo it’s important to notice that the dam is nowhere near it’s full height. The intake tubes for the hydro plant are visible in the B/W photo and almost covered with water when the lake is full. They are nearly covered in the two left side photos. Top left photo is when the dam was first completed, lower right is obviously showing dam and spillway being constructed. The other two are when the spillway first began to fail.
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/483accc3611b04a438a0e8b263f0599520fda5ed3ed8b1f8a964d810c4a14e70.jpg

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

    This before and after reminds me of California’s this rainy season.

    https://twitter.com/JamwalNidhi/status/852939586766487552

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

    With 21.63″ of rain since September 1st, This is now the 7th wettest water year on record!

  • Chris

    This is for Morgan Hill;

    Crazy statistics……..

    This current rainy season is nearly 10 inches WETTER than the combined THREE year total that fell during our recent drought from 2011-2014!

    2011-12 16.05″
    2012-13 16.95″
    2013-14 8.63″

    2011-2014 TOTAL 41.63″

    2016-2017 TOTAL 51.66″

    • Henry

      This is truly remarkable. It shows how the Santa Clara Valley can be prone to very long dry spells. Though if we were to look at this in terms of calendar years, we actually had average to slightly above average rainfall in 2012 and 2014, while 2013 and 2015 were very dry. 2016 overall was slightly wetter than average, and 2017 is guaranteed to be a very wet year even if we don’t get another drop of rain from now to December.

      • Chris

        I was thinking the same thing. This calendar year could be even more impressive if we get some heavy fall rains.
        Dec 2014 brought 11″ of rain alone.

        • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

          I got 15″ that month! 5 inches in on day on December 14 or 15, favorite storm ever IMO at my location! 2014-2015 season was just about normal at my station compared to the rest of California who suffered sadly. 18-20 inches at my place that year

      • AlTahoe

        Growing up as a kid in Morgan Hill during the peak of the 1980’s drought I just assumed that Uvas, Chesbro, and Calero were always empty.

  • inclinejj

    This is wild:

    The latest info shows the Tahoe snow pack at 198% of peak normal season water content. Survey of the SnoTel site near Mt Rose reports 89+ inches of water, over 7 ft in the snow pack. This is the most water ever recorded at the site. The highest previous records of 87+ inches was reported in 1994/95. The typical water content in April is around 37 inches.

    • Henry

      I remember the winter of 1994/95. It was not nearly as wet as 1998 at lower elevations, but the storms started early and there were many atmospheric river events which built a huge snowpack at higher elevations. Squaw Valley had 120 inches of water equivalent, and was still open for skiing on July 4th with a 14 foot base. Mammoth stayed open for skiing into August. There was also flooding in the central valley that winter. In many respects it was quite similar to this winter.

      • Chris

        Except March and February were reverse in terms of precipitation.

        • Henry

          True, I recall that 1995 had a very wet January, a warm and dry February, and a very wet March. That was easier to handle from a flood control perspective than the one-two punch of January and February 2017. Prior to this year I had not seen two consecutive exceptionally wet months since January and February 1998, which were even wetter.

          The spring of 1995 was unusually cool and snowy in the Sierra, though it was not particularly wet at lower elevations. It took a long time for the snowpack at high elevations to start melting, because there was so much snow. I recall that in some of the snowiest locations above 8000 feet a rapid snowmelt did not occur until June of that year.

      • Danlyle (Mariposa)

        1995 was the first year (dating back almost 100 years) the High Sierra Camps in Yosemite did not open due to excessive snow. The highest camp, Vogelsang, at 10,300 feet was buried and the lower camps had too much snow on sections of their trails. This repeated a second time in 2005. They did open in 1983, but I am expecting they will not this year.

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

    I think we will see a weak El Nino to develop this Summer and Fall and then slowly weakening in Winter. Summer should be an active monsoon season starting in Early July.

    • Chris

      What makes you think that? My understating that heavy snowpack in the central and/or southern Rockies suppressed and delayed the monsoon season in the SW.

  • Pfirman

    Link from Admode’s post yesterday —Nat. Geo. It always blows me away to see how big the storage capability is elsewhere, like Grand Coulee, Fort Peck, Lake Foul, and Hoover. Notice I said capability, as I don’t know how much they actually have now, but they have been suffering too for the past few years.

    http://www.nationalgeographic.com/west-snow-fail/img/WSF_map_freshwateruse_1_2048.jpg

    • Lake Mead can’t seem to recover. It’s been on a downward spiral for nearly 20 years.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Is the high use in Central Cal due to extensive irrigation of agriculture?

  • alanstorm

    Opening day cancelled last weekend (& previous) at All American Speedway, Roseville because of rain.
    Haven’t seen that in a decade.
    Should let them race in the rain- its more fun to watch
    http://www.allamericanspeedway.com/Schedule/index.html

    • Nathan

      ….In airport vehicles….

      • alanstorm

        Haha! Awesome. My money was on the yellow truck.
        When we ran the 200 lap enduros at Roseville, they watered down the track to try to keep things even (& subsequently caused more pile ups).
        Rain on pavement = chaos

    • Bombillo1

      I know that this is not universally accepted but I view IC engine car racing as I do fertility clinics, what for? Now if they would use e and have all those talented mechanical types wresting with e storage systems, more efficient e motors, develope better conductors etc, that would be cool. No more Indianapolis 500 races glorifying our contribution to the 6th extinction.

      • alanstorm

        880 Oakland, on a Friday, in the RAIN = EXTINCTION

      • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

        Here is my new Bolt and a free charging station I use across the street from my office. This puts a smile on my face. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5d3a7cfa4bf3043760cc73787672dd4deb261cb94760afd15ef3fad70d3fdebe.jpg

        • That’s way cool!

        • Bombillo1

          Proud of you. The only way forward and the only hope we have for a sustainable future.

          • The one thing that will make at least passanger ICE’s a dinosaur (pun intended) will be to improve the battery. These charging stations are so cool but they might be obsolete in 10 years due to battery improvements.

          • Bombillo1

            I am into battery technology and all the new chemistries revolving around this subject. Storage is the holy grail and the improvements are accelerating. I would not want to be sitting on 100 years of oil supply thinking everything is peachy (message to Saudis). Note that Musk just came out with a concept truck for Long Haul semis!

          • It would be the biggest techno advance in our lifetimes, IMO
            ….more like Canada and Texas now 🙂
            Edmonton oilers had a huge spill at SAP Center last night

          • Pfirman

            Can’t wait for pick-up version.

        • Bombillo1

          It just occurred to me that those are solar panels on the roof of the charging station? Asking a lot from the current photovoltaic panels but there it is, the end of the petroleum industry as we knew it. The Wicked Witch is dead.

          • lodule16

            As William Gibson said, the future is here, it’s just not evenly distributed.

          • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

            Yes, powered by the solar panels which track the sun. Installed by a San Francisco non-profit.

          • matthew

            That would be known as a symbolic gesture. Looks like there are 12 panels. At 300W DC each on a tracker they would produce between 6000-7000 kWh per year. At 3 miles-per-kilowatt-hour that would power a vehicle 18-21K miles per year. Good for a couple of cars, but if more than 2 cars are charging at that station then the rest is coming from the dirty old grid. But as you say, it is a start.

  • inclinejj

    Rainfall for the week so far. .97 in Pacifica.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Rainfall for the last two MONTHS (since Feb 17th)…….0.37″.

  • Cap’n

    The transitional season is upon us. My Doppler will gather dust as the models quiet down. Now is the time when I’m forced to look at myself as the distraction of a storm on the horizon becomes less and less likely. The terror of reality land and my own thoughts become a daily struggle.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Yes, the long dry season of boring endlessly sunny days is upon us. Actually it has been inactive in SoCal for nearly 2 months already; NorCal is just beginning to experience the doldrums.

      • matthew

        Sure is going to suck having to fill my days with cycling, golfing and hiking rather than multi-hour snow shoveling sessions.

        • AlTahoe

          Looks like this Saturday will be a perfect morning for coffee on the porch, then paddle boarding on glassy Tahoe water, then some laps at Heavenly once it softens up, and then a round of disc golf. A basic Tahoe spring day 🙂

          • Cap’n

            Kayak is still under snow but I’ve already had a few mornings on the mountain followed by Mt bike rides in the foothills of Reno, rad time of year. This might be the year I get back into some fishing. I’m heading down your way with a trailer on Saturday to pick up 4 cords of wood.

          • Charlie B

            There is a new trail they cut thru the foothills south of Windy Hill in Reno. It is the Ballardini Ranch Trailhead. I’ve walked the dog out there a couple of times. I have not seen bikes but I have seen tracks. I understand that the trail goes on for miles and ends up near Thomas Creek.

          • inclinejj

            Charlie, I think we know some of the same people around Reno and some people you may have worked with. I wish Disqus had a private message system. I don’t want to mention their names on here.

            And you guys thought Raider fan only has friends in low places!

          • Charlie B

            It has always bummed me that there isn’t a private response option as well.

          • AlTahoe

            Dam that is a lot of wood. How many cords did you use this winter?

          • inclinejj

            Don’t you mean, how many cords did his wife stack?

          • Cap’n

            5 or so.

          • Howard Goodman
        • happ [Los Angeles]

          True for mountain dwellers but for the rest of California it becomes maddening by October w/ constant heat & no interesting weather [unless we get an active monsoon].

          • AlTahoe

            When I used to live in the Bay Area I would get so Jealous of all the afternoon thunderstorms that would pop up over the Sierra while we just got sun or fog. Now that I live up here the thunderstorms are amazing and never get old.

          • happ [Los Angeles]

            God’s country!

          • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

            That’s how I feel in the valley down here. The local mountains regularly get thunderstorms while we need some kind of easterly wave or it needs to be really hot!

          • Howard Goodman

            In 2008 I had one parked over me for a few hours with hundreds of lighting hits all around , that changed my mind on liking thunderstorms

        • inclinejj

          Don’t forget the best part of Summer:

          Summertime Girls.

          • TheNothing

            I work in parks and recreation and can attest to that ?

          • Cap’n

            My binoculars are at the ready and I’ve got the trees and shrubs I’ll be hiding behind all scouted out.

          • TheNothing

            For some reason I’m picturing a scene from the Burbs.

          • matthew

            Or Caddyshack…Oh Mrs Crane, your a little monkey woman…

        • Cap’n

          How’s your elbow? Mine still aches at times.

          • inclinejj

            Commonly known in the foothills and Sierra’s as.

            Get out of stacking wood elbow

      • Bombillo1

        What’s this we stuff Tanto? Rained hard last night with hail, slated to get another .7 tonight and more in a few days. The party goes on as the keg is not yet empty…50 mi N of Redding.

    • Bombillo1

      Don’t let your Doppler get down.

    • TheNothing

      To quote a truly wise master “that’s a warp”.

      • Danlyle (Mariposa)

        Vary nice.

    • PRCountyNative

      What opportunity! To notice the thoughts, feelings, and sensations passing by like a cumulonimbus across the doppler screen… Pause! Know that you are good, safe and you have arrived. Be grateful for WeatherWest and above average rainfall, notice the relief that comes with the changing of the seasons and the melting of the accumulated frozen precipitation. Behold the Snack Shack!

    • mbmattcor (TD 6400′)

      Transition season is off-piste season and this is the best one ever. Keep giving me 20’s at night and I’ll be floating until June.

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/43e77addbb53a7253c2c3ffc837c20bd28a0172211f14602fcda91f268fa7527.jpg

      • AlTahoe

        That’s awesome!. Studs on the tires or just normal ones?

        • mbmattcor (TD 6400′)

          normal 4.8″ tires and it grips like velcro right now

          • cthenn

            Sweet! Shoulda propped the bike up in the snow so we can check out your ride! Fatbike I assume? You should submit to Bikerumor pic of the day.

      • Yolo Hoe

        Nice!!! Spring corn season just got extended

      • Cap’n

        Bad ass. I want to do that.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      If you want a change in perspective, I’d recommend some reading for the long and stormless days of summer. Eckhart Tolle is one of my favorite authors, and his book, A New Earth, astounded me, and it’s a gift I’ve given to many. Do yourself a favor, and give yourself the gift that can shift your consciousness from struggle, to Joy.

      • Cap’n

        Fyodor, Fante, Bolaño; my winter guys.

        • Danlyle (Mariposa)

          I’ll add them to my list.

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          Ah ha, a well read man. We can tell. You have a gift for expressing yourself Cap’n. Always read your tales of life in snow country with amusement and appreciation.

          • Cap’n

            After writing those names I went back to a story I’ve read over and over again. To me, possibly the best short story I’ve ever read yet I could never explain why. Here’s a link if you’re bored, it’s what got me hooked and drug me away from the Magical Realism I was sucked into at the time:

            http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2008/08/04/clara-roberto-bolano

        • Pfirman

          The Idiot is fave by Fyodor.

          • Cap’n

            That poor epileptic! A great one. I also love granny in the Gambler.

          • Pfirman

            Movie version of Idiot does first third of book. Excellent.

          • Cap’n

            I’ll have to find that someday.

          • PRCountyNative

            “Brothers..” will occupy you for a few days at least…

  • Nathan

    Sat/Sun looking like glorious beach days here in SD.

    Looks like the rest of the heat is really backing off statewide, probably a good thing.

    • Charlie B

      I’m headed down with the wife to San Clemente for the weekend (anniversary). This is just what the doctor ordered.

      • Pfirman

        Next weekend I’m headed to Ft. Bragg for same reason. Enjoy.

  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

    I predict 2-3 cutoff lows in May and 1 or 2 in June, don’t let the models trick you like they have this whole year!

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      I think it would be cool if we got some kind of odd event for thunderstorms for may or June

    • AlTahoe

      I figure since we had extremely anomalous storms in early Oct, we will probably have one or two biggies in late May or June as well.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      That would be fine by me!

  • Capn how would you feel about fresh photos of Oroville and Shasta? Taken 12:13 PM. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/99f1cbc5d844f4170be98bc2d3898a6c717a49bb651676107f7c1e10bfcb752d.jpg

    • Howard Goodman

      I’d say that’s the Sutter Buttes , the worlds smallest mountain range

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        Driving north out of Sacramento these mts crop up unexpectedly

        • Howard Goodman

          No they’ve been there for a long time just to the west of Yuba City

          • Howard Goodman

            That’s a view of the North side where last year a U-2 from Beale AFB crashed right in between those lower hills

          • We were wondering where he impacted, and if an accident report has been released(probably too soon).

          • Pfirman

            We? These loom to the north like Diablo does to the south here in eastern Yolo, and I never heard of this crash. I do know those planes are at Beale and have seen them taking off a couple times while driving nearby.

          • Howard Goodman

            Don’t know how you could miss it was all over the news , they also do touch and goes all the time at the chico air port , then about 15 years ago one crashed in Oroville ,hit in the parking lot of the local newspaper and killed a lady paying her paper bill , I was stationed at Beale back in the 1970’s then we had the Baddest plane in the world there the SR-71’s

          • Pfirman

            Sure enough it showed up in the headlines the next morning, lol.
            First time I saw a SR-71 low in the sky near Marysville I thought it was an alien invasion, but I was younger then, heh.

          • Howard Goodman

            Same thing happened to me only I was in the Air Force , was in Vietnam and they let you chose your https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ae729c2830320847aa8383497f8632ac2d73d76cfbe38ec1ec9e986831f2517c.jpg top 3 bases you’d like to be stationed at , Beale was on my list since my parents had moved to Paradise , I got Beale then I had to get a secrete security clearance didn’t know why until I went out on the flight line saw a line of what looked like big garages one of the doors was open and I saw my first SR-71 , I knew about air planes but never saw anything like this before , I worked on the flight line there for 2 1/2 years on KC-135’s (that refueled the SR’s and the B-52’s ) we had to change them back and forth between the JP-4 fuel for the B-52’s and the JP-7 that was just for the SR’s

    • cthenn

      We’d be underwater if that was Shasta…world’s fastest snowmelt!

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Ummmm, aren’t those pretty big bodies of water? Where did they go?

  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

    https://www.stormviewlive.com/image/chat/media/3214.gif
    Subtropical Storm 9 spinning up in the open Atlantic

  • Danlyle (Mariposa)

    Yesterday’s soaking drizzle took my area over 70 inches for the year. Not outlandish like some the numbers I’ve seen shared here, but more than double average and much more than anyone would have expected. Perhaps a few more rainy days slip in before July.

    Moving to Grand Canyon, so I’ll be seeing Pacific storms after California is finished with them. Good Luck, Weather Wester’s and thank you to Daniel Swain!

    • Cap’n

      Moving to the Grand Canyon!? I’m sure many of us Weather Westers would tag along. Happy trails, post an occasional picture, qualifies as West in my opinion and one of my favorite places on the planet.

    • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

      Are you going to be a ranger?

    • Tuolumne

      I appreciated your interesting and informative posts!

  • A lot of above average years in the sierra since around 1983-84. And cool ones in late 19th to mid 1920’s https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fe1d1f5b0a5fe81bba190ad67b5ecd3190c6efe2ef4811ed07c5fecc8695b3fc.png

    • Dan weather maniac

      It shocks me that anyone can look at thsi chart with a straight face and say there isnt anything abonormal going on post 2000, and expecially post 2010.

      Now I wonder are we going to see a more exponential line up from here, or more linear? I really hpe its linear and we can manage to reduce the upslope.

      Thanks for posting!

      • cthenn

        I’m no Daniel Swain (hehe!) but yearly trends, even over the course of 10 years or more is but a blip in the history of the planet. Man can have an enormous impact on the climate, but these temperature trends would still be showing outlier periods of abnormal cold and warmth even without human interference.

        • tomocean

          Taken by itself? Yes. Taken in conjunction with all of the other scientific evidence? Probably not.

        • CHeden

          Very little data supports your contention that extreme climate changes occur without external causation if your talking about climate changes on multi-milenium time scales. The Milankovitch cycle and volcanic activity are two external causations we’re most familiar with (in addition to anthropogenic influences). Reliable data exists that shows the rate of temperature change is beyond anything since just after the beginning of the current interglacial which goes back ~10,000 yrs….meaning there is a .00001% chance the current global temperature change-rate is a random occurrence.
          Lastly, by all rights we should be well on our way to the next ice-age based on the Milankovitch cycle, but something extraordinary has happened (i.e. dramatic warming) to alter a cycle that’s been occurring for millions (billions?) of years….or at least since planet Earth assumed it’s current orbit.

          • Chris

            I have also read recently that we had a record 14 days without a sunspot. Indications are that we might go into the lowest solar minimum since the mid 1700s.
            This should (???) reverse global warming which would do 2 things off the top of my head;

            1) Halt or reverse the disastrous effects of our warming planet for “X” # of decades.

            2) Give the deniers ammunition that global warming was indeed a hoax and act accordingly.

            Then when this solar minimum ends with all this C02 built up in the atmosphere, what happens then? (You know the answer)

          • CHeden

            The Maunder minimum and Dalton minimum have frequently been linked with periods of cooler temps on a global scale….however definitive proof has been hard to come by since other factors such as increased volcanic activity in roughly the same time period introduced SO2 and dust in the upper air would/did have a similar cooling effect.

          • cthenn

            Well I already admitted I’m not a climate scientist. I’m not contending anything, I’m just wondering how much of the change is attributable to human activity. If there is a proven correlation, then I accept that. I’m not a believer in “alternative facts” so I defer to those who study this for a living.

          • CHeden

            I think we are dealing with alternative data…not alternative facts (as far as conclusions are concerned).
            We’d all like the world to be black and white which removes all ambiguity, but alas that is not in the cards (as yet).
            In a nutshell, the DATA shows that the current run of record high global temps has not been seen over the course of dozens of PDO shifts, solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and every other related “natural cycle” or phenomena so far discovered or hypothesized….and none of these events/conditions or combinations thereof have resulted in a warming change rate nearly as great as what we see today.
            What we can say is FACT, is that there are many contributing factors that shape our climate (and planet), and that mankind has identified most of these factors..both real and artificial. AND we can state as FACT that human activity is contributing substances into the air and altering the biological conditions in rainforests and the ocean that help remove/sequester/contribute many of theses same pollutants.
            So, in the absence of any reasonable alternative theory(s) that can explain a temperature increase-rate like what our DATA shows without introducing some type of external causation, the ONLY reasonable conclusion is that anthropogenic activity is the missing “external causation” that has resulted in the wild shift(s) in global temps. i.e..there is no data whatsoever that 2014-2015 was replicated at any time within the last 8,000 yrs without anthropogenic (external causation) being present.

      • Obviously, the overall warming trend here is readily apparent. And this particular chart is a great example of why just +1-2 of mean warming can be very consequential–in this case, it’s tipping the average temperature the Sierra from below freezing to above (snow vs. rain, anyone?).

        On top of that human-caused warming trend, there are indeed large natural fluctuations that may appear to temporarily accelerate (or decelerate) the broader warming. But while the historical warming trend in many regions has been (to a reasonable approximation) linear, that will not always be the case as the cumulative influence of greenhouse gases continues to grow over time.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        I believe the massive outsourcing of manufacturing to Asia, especially China over the last 20-25 years, and all the resulting pollution and emissions involved is playing a role in this warming trend in one way or another.

        If you walk into any store in the U.S., except for a grocery store or a plant nursery, I will bet that if one picks up 10 random items, that at least 60-70% of those items are made in China, and if they are not, most would likely made in some other country. It is mind-blowing how much is not made in the good ole’ U.S.A. anymore.

    • CHeden

      The upward temp trend begins after the 76-77′ global climate shift.

      • Pfirman

        What do you know about the 1930-1940 warm spell?

        • CHeden

          IMHO…
          Prior to the dust bowl years, temps were much below normal….and dating back to the end of the Little Ice Age plus mega-volcanic SO2-producing events such as Krakatoa and Tambora, the climate was experiencing high variances over decadal time periods as the atmosphere attempted to re-equilibrate. The dust bowl years were essentially a “rebound” effect from the below normal temps in the 3-4 preceding decades.

          • Pfirman

            Makes sense. Also, if you have not read ‘Two Years Before the Mast’ by Richard Henry Dana, you should if only because of the weather reporting. Interesting differences and similarities.

          • ben

            Dana’s story was one of many to inspire me to set sail, sailing inspired me to learn weather and led to travel, which made me want to study geology. Geology got me interested in climate which led to this site, that now two decades later inspires me to read Dana. Circles.

          • PRCountyNative

            Great read, for the perspective, San Francisco then and now, and also how about the first job out of school?

      • Yeah I was going to bring up the regime shift but wanted to KISS. Hey do you know when the regime shift was known? Sometime after 1977? What shifted? Just PDO or other pattern oscillations like AMO?

        • CHeden

          The PDO is often cited as a prime driver of the Pacific Climate Shift of 1976. However, the PDO may not be correctly identifying the true sea-atmospheric teleconnection. Here’s a good discussion (but not authoritative) that argues against making any firm conclusions about the PDO and the climate shift (at least for Alaska…but relevant for us nonetheless).
          https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/14/on-hartmann-and-wendler-2005-the-significance-of-the-1976-pacific-climate-shift-in-the-climatology-of-alaska/

        • CHeden

          I think it was when 2,000+ year old trees started dying in 1977 that the reality set in that something really strange was/did happen. At the time, I recognized almost immediately that the weather I was experiencing in San Francisco had no precedent, with storms suddenly not following the same tracks as hundreds of others before.
          Now, over 40 yrs later, it’s abundantly clear that sea-borne storms no longer tend to track over the continent but instead tend to remain out at sea as they run up to the coast then veer NE/NW, instead of SE. Why this is, is still open for debate…but I tend to believe it’s because continental air in the Winter time became warmer (and drier) from persistent H.P. over the Great Basin and central North America.

          • Yolo Hoe

            Wow, that storm track change is confirmed? If so, you’ve helped me to understand why the models struggle as they do given the unprecedented change they are constantly lagging.

          • CHeden

            The stormtrack shift wasn’t a subtle change…it was/is very obvious.
            Prior to 1976, low pressure systems tracking NE-SW out of the GoA would often cross the coast on a regular basis…now most approach the coast from a more westerly or southerly direction then retreat north, with only trailing fronts crossing the coast. Only very rarely in the 40 years since have we’ve seen a bona-fide comma shaped low drop over California from the NW….whereas we would see several/many such events in a typical Winter prior to 1976.
            A very typical forecast back in the day would be increasing southerly (not SE) winds and rain gradually increasing in intensity until the cold front would push through with cold-post frontal showers lasting anywhere from 24-72 hrs thereafter. Just don’t see these type of systems but once in blue moon nowadays.

          • Nathan

            >I think it was when 2,000+ year old trees started dying in 1977

            Not that I’m doubting you in any way, but where did this happen?

          • CHeden

            Here’s a paper with a comprehensive roundup of tree death causation(s) in 1977. While I can’t find the exact newsmedia, 1976-77 was when the pseudo-science of dendrochronology became a household word as tree ring analysis was being used to describe just how severe the drought was.
            https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/stelprdb5364908.pdf

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Dang, I thought they fixed that spillway?. Or has the water eaten away at another section?

      • Howard Goodman

        The spillway is damaged big time ,going to take along time to fix and they just awarded the Bid yesterday 275,000,000 they had a very limited time to work on it before it had to be open again just the other day , suppose to rain tonite then a big warm up for the weekend which will start the snow melt then more rain next week so who knows when they can actually start working on it to do a permanent fix

        • Howard Goodman

          I was in Oroville today noticed the river was running pretty high when I drove over went to Tractor Supply and home Depot

        • CHeden

          The main spillway damage really hasn’t changed much during the last several releases, so I think the exposed bedrock is posing little risk of further failure. Knowing this, the DWR focused the most resources to clearing the river channel and putting a concrete liner on the emergency spillway. Once the lake inflow starts to drop at a predictable rate, they’ll immediately start work on the main spillway. Anyway, that’s my take.

          • Howard Goodman

            exactly

          • You say that, but my high res pictures taken today suggest further erosion. Just less evident and spread around. I’ll upload some.

          • ben

            Please share, this geology nerd wants to see.

          • Howard Goodman

            And just think this is the smallest release they’ve done , they had it up to 90K CFS now it’s 35K CFS and 10K of that’s coming from the power house

    • Charlie B

      I don’t think it was intended to do that. If that cataract was natural it would be a state park.

      • Pfirman

        It’s happening because the state has been in park on maintenance.

      • Yolo Hoe

        Wonder when some kayakers will start running those class VI rapids?

        • Howard Goodman

          After watching a few video’s of what those guys do I wouldn’t doubt they’d try

    • Nathan

      what are we looking at…

      edit: that is unusual…

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    SST off Hawaii have been well above normal for several months. Is this another ENSO signal?
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/af5f13bd77df991baf34dcf09af18e3917a984fc598e637254366ca6bf26fd4e.jpg

    • CHeden

      Hmmm, perhaps.
      Hawaii rainfall to date is mostly way behind normal.
      Droughts intermixed with severe storms is the typical ENSO signal for Hawaii.
      https://www.hawaii-guide.com/content/posts/hawaii_weather_and_climate_patterns

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        Thanks for the links. Interesting that El Nino means dryness in Hawaii while La Nina is wet; pretty much the opposite for California.

        • Pfirman

          I did not know either. Yin yang I guess.

    • Not really. That area has been real warm for a few years. If we see a +ENSO I’m pretty sure it will start in the IO and/or Indonesian Archipelago with WWB’s.

  • RunningSprings6250

    Snowless April following a snowless March and a nearly snowless February.

    Might as well throw up our April totals south of Pt. Conception – that’s a wrap for April…

    .02″

    400 times less precip than last April. LOL

    I’m actually looking forward to summer and the potential for tstorms!

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      You, at least, get summer thunderstorms in the San Bernardino mts unlike the lowlands. But there still is a chance of rainfall next month; most Mays have some moisture even in SoCal though not much.

      • RunningSprings6250

        Last year was my first snowless May – this year my first snowless March & April.

        Always a token late season snowfall or two, not so sure this year…

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Not sure we can blame climate change entirely for the crazy weather here in SoCal over the last 6 years but something’s not right. To get three consecutive months with much above monthly rainfall totals (19.35″), then suddenly get 0.37″ total for the next two months, something needs to change. So, I invited my gf to Pershing Square for Saturday’s “March for Science LA”, to change my bad karma and maybe learn a thing or two.

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        Cool
        Aside from the worst drought in 450 years, the number of rain years of dry springs is actually a fair amount. Lack of rainfall is historically common esp in SoCal

    • Phil(ontario)

      0.20. I win!
      Still considered an above average year. But that is a bit misleading because after the last 5 years many cities in SoCal that have only been incorporated 30 years or less, have seen their “average yearly total” drop by an inch or two. What I am saying is, if this season happened in 2007 instead of 2017, it would have been considered and average year.

  • alanstorm

    Driving into the storm: robust cold front sliding south thru Sanoma Co.
    Solid rain in Cloverdale
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b3c86b0dfe3cca11dea054a40d7f9a5a832d20e067e9d566446049c587c5d18a.jpg

    • Pfirman

      Better put away my bike. Say, if that was really Sanoma, then the town was Claverdale. Continuity rules.

      • alanstorm

        Pic was N Santa Rosa, Sanoma Co.
        Post was when I stopped in Cloverdale for one of those burritos

        • Pfirman

          Santa Rasa, you mean.

        • Pfirman

          I stop at the brewery.

    • Yolo Hoe

      Mushroom Man: you can, but you can’t hide — great pic!

      • alanstorm

        Drove down Monday in RAIN.
        Drove back today in RAIN.
        If I was a mosquito, I’d be planning my major assault for the next week right about now.

        • Yolo Hoe

          You are a mobile Rag Dump.

          • alanstorm

            That would be a presumptuous moniker on my part

        • Drew Stofflet

          I was in the spot in sun an hour earlier, I hit rain in Boonville. Dumped all the way to the coast

  • Saw absurd amounts of flowers east of Red Bluff while flying over the mesas:

    • Howard Goodman

      Just North of Oroville Dam where the Big O is on the side of the mountain , that’s Table Mountain , it’s covered with wild flowers in place also

    • Pfirman

      Did you go to Manton? Talk about one of the secret valleys of California.

      • Maybe? I have to go dump some images from my SD card…I tried uploading one on mobile and that did not work.

  • SloTruckeeJohn
    • alanstorm

      Spent a romantic weekend with a girl in Cayucos. We found it by accident.
      Totally undiscovered jem of a seaside town & a beach with no one!
      Right out of a book

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        Avila Beach is another gem & Morro bay of course

        • RunningSprings6250

          Montana de oro!

  • Trying a new host that will let me get 5K of my 8K camera uploaded:
    Mesa Bluffs:
    https://www.ezphotoshare.com/image/Kb2ciI

  • It was crazy vibrant today:
    http://i.imgur.com/T2ZXQc6.jpg

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Beautiful, is that the Sierra foothills?

      • Somewhere near Manton or Wells Place? I had never been there before.

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          I have family in Chico; are the orchards in bloom?

          • the entire state looks like a green grenade.

          • happ [Los Angeles]

            Yes but the hills are pretty much brown now in SoCal; it still looks great but the green is gone among grasses

          • David

            Yes they are.

    • alanstorm

      & some happy insects this spring

  • Cropped, contrast and highlight corrected, downsized, and posted! Check out the guys in the picture for scale…better higher res stuff coming later, I have to do some work now sadly…
    http://i.imgur.com/FSOMBj1.jpg

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      So the flow is basically along a trench? That must be eroding fast!

      • It’s dramatic, you can see that geyser-ish plume from 30 miles away

        • Pfirman

          Unlike the actual Geysers near Cloverdale/Geyserville that have been disappeared by mankind.

      • Howard Goodman

        It’s down to bed rock now and the broken end is reinforced with many tons of concert

        • Pfirman

          Concert, heh. Heavy metal?

          • matthew

            Hard rock.

    • ben

      Thats great, show us more! Clearly shows the transition between the sheeted dikes (layered rocks) and the basalt screen (initial failure point, no layered banding).

  • Cap’n

    A couple shots from today after work. West End Beach (5,900 ft) is showing sand for the first time since early December/late November. Second shot I took taking a break sliding down the east side of Negro Canyon (taken from 6,400 ft, looking towards the same peaks from other shot). You could see and feel tonight’s little system blowing in. Snow is disappearing around town in the sun, shaded spots and above 6,500 ft are holding on good. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/72c03e25c4feab5988a311033e466089770df0cf968ad265f825c1067908844b.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4d0c6dbd719bb16dc76d80f375ebf1c7ee2ac5357fc9073a2017947d5a44db64.jpg

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      I like that 2nd photo!

    • AlTahoe

      Wow I played all 27 holes of disc golf at bijou today after work and there was only one patch of snow for the dog to roll around in. If we can go snow free for the next two weeks lower corral (the jump line) should be good to ride. The bike park at bijou is snow free but needs some work on the jumps. Should be open by this weekend https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e88c63d584dcb06842d617e860929dad8df398ea4b93d71bf28782eeb459b04e.jpg

      • Cap’n

        Yeah there are spots like that around town as well. In fact large chunks of areas in the sun are snow free, pretty normal with the April sun angle I would say. West shore of Tahoe and my neighborhood have a bunch, no surprises there I guess. We took our clients to that park in early fall. Skate park, pump track, disc golf, etc…, all in one spot. Wish we had something like that up here.

        • AlTahoe

          I was stoked for the pump track until I realized how hard it was. After 5 laps you feel like you want to puke. Great cardio workout though.

          • Cap’n

            I’ve never done the one here, I’m intimidated and scared of looking like an old kook.

          • AlTahoe

            I am 38 and I was surprised by how many people my age or older are out at the bike park down here. That is the only reason I decided to go. Lol
            Then again South Lake has retirees in their 60’s that absolutely mob on the mountain bike trails here. I call them the south lake Tahoe cyborgs.

          • Cap’n

            Hey I’m 38 too, and we both have black dogs! Yeah I hear you, I had a coworker at the school I worked at in Truckee who is 56 and literally out bikes me, out skis me, out hikes me, and used to kill me at PE with the high schoolers. I always joke that every 3rd person up here is either training for an Ironman or a 100 mile trail race. Considering the talent and athleticism up here I’m low tier.

          • Pfirman

            I’m an old kook and scared of looking intimidated, or just dated.

  • This one’s for the Cap’n:
    http://i.imgur.com/YE7DFkc.jpg

    • Cap’n

      Ah this might have been the one you meant to post earlier. Looking good. I’m running into the same knee issues again so things are up in the air. I did do Tallac and Castle Peak in the past three weeks but I was feeling pretty tossed afterwards. Two knee surgeries (same knee) in the past 10 years. After the money and recovery time I thought I would be like Robo Cop for the rest of my days, far from the reality.

      • Crossing my fingers those aren’t from skiing, I’m scared my knee is going to explode one day from some freak ski accident. The snow will be around for a while though….

        • alanstorm

          Well, I was considering trying a bunny slope on your recommendation, but I don’t need a blown up knee

          • Two VERY different things – cliff jumping and bunny sloping. Think of you on the bunny slope as a day at the go kart track, and what I like to, blasting between trees, off of cliffs and jumping off chairlifts, then yeah you are potentially at risk. Bunny slope = 1, Cliff jumping = 11, this pictures should be useful –
            see how there is so much snow that there are no rocks trees or obstacles?
            There’s nothing to run into! It’s pretty benign even if you screw up. Meanwhile, if you are trying to hop off rocks in a snow filled creek and dipping between trees, you are much more likely to have an incident…
            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d147909972e03ccae3332b1b739199964450ec5bd9b71d01fd7979903ef58dc3.jpg

          • alanstorm

            Whoa! Well, I’m glad u have your helmet on & watch out for that fence!
            (Oh wait, you’re jumping that into the pillow of snow)
            I gave up stock car racing in 2005 & decided no more activities that require helmets or roll cages.
            Or possible blown out knees.
            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/849f73e688e50bccfdd5c2ab4f80b5bb89724d492be7c4c11ee281d2306434f5.jpg

          • Badass picture man, digging the roll cage and racing window…Yeah jumping off into that abyss is somewhat safer than it sounds, plenty of powder to fall on, if it were rocky or chunky with ice yeah that could suck but there are many areas where if you eat it you land in a field of pillows.

      • PRCountyNative

        Ouch! Yeah they don’t tell you that the surgeries aren’t good for the long haul. Can’t I recover when I’m old and do all the running around now?

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      What snow-capped peak is that?

      • Nathan

        I think Lassen from the N?

        • Tuolumne

          Yes, Lassen. Shasta is far more prominent.

          • Pfirman

            Yep. Brokeoff on the right? Interesting view angle.
            I would have thought Shasta due to the strong interest shown by Cap’n.

          • Nathan

            Ditto. But Lassen has a flatter top than Shasta and Shastina is closer to Shasta and less prominent than Brokeoff is to Lassen.

            Also pro-tip to anyone who wants to climb Lassen: don’t. Climb Brokeoff instead. Nicer hike with better views _of_ Lassen and surroundings, and 1/100th the crowd.

          • Pfirman

            Heh, or climb Shasta and look at them both, and a lot else.

        • Bingo, Lassen from the Central Valley looking North East.
          Shasta was buried in clouds.

      • Charlie B

        Shasta and Shastina?

  • Joey B.

    Pouring in Lafayette currently

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    Got an interesting observation from the heater guy who came yesterday for the annual inspection. He does work on the hvac at Bear Valley and noted that his drives up this past winter were “through slush” rather than hard packed snow on the road. A sign of the warmer temperatures this winter.

    • Howard Goodman

      Yeah further north too, been driving in and out of my remote place for 10 years , sometimes it’s a struggle but this year most of the time it was impossible , the snow was more like a sluppy , at one point had 4 feet of slope , had trouble just trying to back out of my car port had to look to make sure my hubs where locked . To get groceries and gas had to use my Quad with tracks , built a box to put on the back to haul everything with ,it never got cold enough to freeze the snow https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/37423cc1e31db3f2493a14ceea7aede6ab488be11d51b74bf16dc229a04b3e24.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4eacbdcc98a8f6ef7916bd0bd5faf15e7dfb3580a2b02653089b16131e835da9.jpg

    • Cap’n

      The slush this year was insane. Half the snow we got at my elevation was literally one or two degrees away from being rain. I’ve never seen so much “wintry mix” accumulate to feet of “snow”.

      • AlTahoe

        I was always one or two degrees away from getting accumulating snow this winter. Where your area would get two feet I would end up with one slushy inch even though it “snowed” for 8 hours at my house. Looks like we are going to finish the season 8″ above normal for snowfall ay 158″. I mentioned this before but the winters of 2007-08 through 2010-11 all had more snow than this season for South Lake Tahoe.

        • Cap’n

          I’m doing the drive to SLT Saturday via West shore. To the naked eye I’d say the Homewood area and surrounding spots did about the same as the 10-11″ winter when I was living there (roughly 400″). In this area (north lake, Truckee), we might have actually been “saved” by a few of those systems coming in as rain, especially in January. At a point there I think that another 4-8 feet of snow would have started to cause some serious issues, not that we didn’t have some already. I think TTUSD ended up having 13 snow days with an extended school year to June 23rd now. SLT district 10 or 11 snow days? Oh well, not a historic snow year, but holy crap a lot of liquid. I think we’ll be very impressed by how much snow is high up, Freel Peak looks buried down there! Did you see the Serene Lakes photos I posted last weekend? By far the most snow since 10-11″.

          • AlTahoe

            Yeah I did west shore 3 weeks ago and the amount of snow they had was insane. I have never seen such a difference in amounts over such small distances before. Usually big snow winters are big on all area’s of the lake. The temps really made things interesting this year. 2010-2011 were colder storms and I remember seeing 6’+ on the ground in the super Banana belt area’s like Glenbrook. We had over 300″ in South lake that winter. When I looked at Pyramid Peak in Desolation from the top of Heavenly last weekend it is unrecognizable. Parts of Desolation might have 100′ on the ground in wind blown areas!

          • Pfirman

            Wow.

      • Arnold Weather Fanatic

        Ditto here, Cap’n. Only it was rain. precip/snow ratio sits at 158.5%. Usually, .50-.60%.

  • PRCountyNative

    Humans still get surprised when wholly predictable things come to pass. A typical response is disbelief, denial, minimization.

    What’s the latest for California? Somewhere a line will form – I bet between Oxnard and Ventura – and the north will be wet and warm and stormy and south will fully desertify? Wet years, catastrophically so, with long intense droughts becoming the norm? Expect the unexpected, we’ve been fiddling with the knobs a bit much.

    Expect, no strike that, accept this:

    “Hughes and his colleagues found that two-thirds of the northern sector of the reef has been badly damaged by a massive bleaching event that occurred over a period of several months last year.

    An almost equally massive bleaching event is happening right now along a 500-mile portion of the reef. This ongoing event is occurring in the central sector of the reef, just south of last year’s destruction. Together, these back-to-back events comprise the largest coral bleaching ever recorded”

    • matthew

      A dry SoCal is the least of our worries. Well, maybe not the least, but compared to the bigger picture it is relatively minor.

      • Pfirman

        The last few years of a relatively to absolutely dry NorCal illustrated that abundantly.

        • Cap’n

          To be clear, are we calling NorCal dry last winter?

          • Pfirman

            No. Remember when we were whining that it took an El Nino, failed or whatever, to get to ordinary?

          • Cap’n

            I agree. Considering the fact that we all thought we’d be floating down our streets on boogie boards it was a ho hum winter, though largely average from the Bay North.

      • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

        The river of tears from SoCal will be the only one in the state that flows north

  • Howard Goodman

    More on the bucket VS rain gauge bucket 7 5/8 rain gauge 7.4 this is a total from the last 3 storms , as I thought the further up the bucket the closer you are to the right amount , I can see in area’s of lite rainfall the bucket would be way off , but if you let it fill it’s closer to the real numbers

    • Do you have total for season, from October to present? The bucket vs rain gauge puts a 🙂 on my face.

      • Howard Goodman

        I just started because one reason it’s not snowing anymore here , it alternated from snow to rain all year at 4K feet , most of the time when it was snowing it was 33 to 35 out , but I can see the more you get the closer you are and when it snowed and rained then snowed some more as much as it did this year I used the bucket a lot and people had me doubting my readings , once it got buried for awhile when I got it up and took in to melt I had 14 inches in it

        • Howard Goodman

          I also would compare to the Four Trees weather station which isn’t that far away and gets closer than anyone to what I get , they can measure the water content of the snow and I already know I get as much or more than them

  • Howard Goodman

    Here’s a link to the videos of the progression of the damage to Orovilles spillway https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLeod6x87Tu6eVFnSyEtQeOVbxvSWywPlx

    • Looking at the contour lines it’s easy to the path of least resistance. Probably helped a little that the spillway cracked on the left side and there is a huge amount of solid bedrock after the plunge pool was formed.
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ebc9e6f286931c79eb2af982b162ce444665f6b78507f9f36e16e2d83aaa35d9.jpg

      • Pfirman

        Seductive alliteration in ‘plunge pool’ mitigates the horror. In Long Beach as a kid the big saltwater indoor pool downtown was called ‘The Plunge’.

        • Bombillo1

          A lot of “Plunges” out there. The big covered pool in Mission Beach (San Diego) is called “The Plunge”. Built in the 20’s to attract people to the coastal area to sell real estate on/near the ocean. Amazing that until 40s, living on the waterfront was considered unhealthful!!! Too damp, mold, bad for the lungs etc. The original wealthy did not construct mansions on the beach. How many other unfounded “facts” still direct our lives?

          • I can always talk about chutes, curtains, aprons, armoured skinplates, headworks and horizontal tension 😉

      • ben

        The fact that layers within the sheeted dike bedrock strike NE and dip SE is the likely cause of erosion to migrate south. The contact between the dikes and volcanics which were intruded upon follow a similar strike and dip. This is why the lip of the broken spillway is also trending NW. That contact is why the spillway failed in that location to begin with. You read it here first.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      I am not totally familiar with Oroville’s set up, but if I am not mistaken didn’t the water take out the road to the launch ramp? Could be a tough summer for Oroville and the surrounding area if they lose all the summer boating season after the last several seasons of low water levels.

      • Pfirman

        It’s a big reservoir with more than one launch site.

      • Howard Goodman

        Never heard that besides Oroville is a big lake it has several launch ramps and the lake level will have to be lowered because once they start working on the spillway they just have the power plant to release water with

      • inclinejj

        I know there is a parking lot to the left of the emergency spillway that was briefly starting to become flooded.

      • inclinejj

        There is a parking lot to the left if the emergency spillway that flooded briefly.

  • tomocean
    • CHeden

      Cool shots! Great for the archives and when we get get less than 25% of our annual rainfall and we’ll be ruminating about the great deluge of 2016-17.

      • tomocean

        Ha! So right. I am loving every minute of this incredible wet season (sorry So Cal WWers).

    • Cap’n

      What’s your season total? Auburn right?

      • tomocean

        Yes. Auburn. Sitting at 55.45″ right now July 1st, 2016 to present. 37.1″ is average. I ain’t switching to October for the water year.

        • Cap’n

          Nice. I even thought you might have more, I know Colfax has a high total. I guess that extra elevation helps quite a bit.

    • Pfirman

      Nice shot of dogweed, which is what they call it at Big Trees, because it is taking over.

      • tomocean

        Thanks. It’s my neighbors non-native variety. Still pretty though.

  • Cap’n

    A dusting with some light snow falling over here. Bring on the warm weekend.

  • CHeden

    P/C in Cottonwood this a.m.
    Managed 0.23″ and a couple of distant thunderclaps during a brief but rather intense frontal passage around 6 p.m. last evening. No post frontal showers though, and a nice weekend is shaping up. Doesn’t look like we’ll hit 80, but hi-70’s is just too perfect to complain about.

    • Howard Goodman

      I saw the thunder was up around Richardson Springs

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

    0.06 overnight. Was not supposed to get anything. Now at 1.90 for April. Hope to get to 2 inches.

  • jstrahl

    Walked out of my weekly music event last night around 11:30 to surprise rain, wasn’t forecast till a couple of hours later. but did have a poncho to ease the ride home. Got .06 inches by midnight, .03 soon after. April total is now 3.45 inches. Season total is 40.23 inches, pre ’90 equivalent is 44.25 inches.

  • Dogwood

    20.4″ for me in Downtown San Jose for the season to date, starting in July.
    It was a slow climb, as I thot our totals were less than the relative Nor Cal accumulations suggested- Ben Lomond 103″!!!
    82-83 was 30″ for us here.
    But there’s water everywhere. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/31f962cf8cd0308960f3e600f3b86fb9e32dd1305a33ce05d82d997e091bb9c8.jpg
    Last week aerial pic of Loma Prieta watershed with Calero for my neighbors. Window seat always worth the extra $15.

  • inclinejj

    Pacifica. Rain woke me up a couple times. Another .34.

  • Thor

    Got another .28″ last night in Marin…after 4 straight days of measurable rainfall (when the forecast called for one maybe 2) the season’s total thus far is 95.40″

  • Cap’n

    I just discovered this FB page, don’t know why it took me so long. Lots of up to date info for us Eastern Sierra fanatics. I’ll be following this now as I’m hoping to get some Mt Dana action later this spring as well as camping and fishing around the Sonora Pass/Leavitt areas.

    https://m.facebook.com/VisitEasternSierra/?tsid=0.4608780995985068&source=typeahead

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/884d0b75221a188c63eea2103b1e920300da39d3c8acdea37c7302bbddd0db16.png

    • Nathan

      I would not want to be a plow driver this year.

      • Pfirman

        Heh, looks more like Tioga Impasse.

        • lodule16

          … clevah

    • Bartshe

      My view from April 4 standing on top of that avalanche (10 meters of depth over road): https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9b6afdc65c675c315e72380ab906116c32ee8dbafaa51df6fa26b7862c8935ec.jpg

      • Cap’n

        I figured you’d have some info. Nice.

      • ben

        Great shot! I always wondered about why that scree slope (through the tree in the center of the photo) looked so fresh, never imagined snow that deep to simply bridge the road and connect to the cliffs far above.

    • mbmattcor (TD 6400′)

      What’s your guess on west side Tioga Pass Rd opening day?

      • Bartshe

        My money is on June 30 or few days before if warm weather comes on strong.

        • mbmattcor (TD 6400′)

          I think they are going to hit drift heights that they’ve never experienced, but yep I agree they want to be open by last day of June.

      • Tuolumne

        July 3. That snow is really dense and won’t be easy to clear.

    • mbmattcor (TD 6400′)
    • SloTruckeeJohn

      Cap’n, have you ever fished the waters above Lake Alpine on the west side of the crest? There are definitely some springtime honey holes up there. Just not sure when they will be reachable and ice free this year. The past few years, including last year, I could access them by mid-June.

      • matthew

        I have seen some large trout (4-ish pounds) come out of Alpine Lake right at ice break. Just need to toss something resembling food from shore as the ice is receding.

      • Cap’n

        I’m not very knowledgeable, I’ve hardly done any fishing up here. Last time I fished was living in Bozeman and I was never that experienced even then. I’ll be searching for advice or ideas on here. My wife wants to get into it this year too so I figure it’s another way we can enjoy the outdoors together.

        • SloTruckeeJohn

          Bull Run Lake (el. 8400′) is a really nice 3-mile hike off of Highway 4 that is lightly used early in the season. It’s a beautiful spot. There are brook trout in the lake that don’t quite rival those in Kirman Lake but are a lot easier to catch. I rarely give out a fishing spot but since you have been such a huge contributor to this site I almost feel I owe you! I’m just hoping this post is buried deep enough that there aren’t many others who will read it.

          My goofy nephew last June:
          https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d14446ce5a0b98fa8c0444af2a4a4d02cc20383ce1434d955c86e8fb5b4d01f6.jpg

          • Cap’n

            Right on thanks for the tip! I understand the importance of a good fishing spot and appreciate it. Most of my friends who fish, fly fish primarily rivers. I figure if I’m getting into it I have to start the lazy man way; cast and chill. Thanks again!

          • RunningSprings6250

            I just copy pasted this to my very popular California fishing tourism site. Thanks!

            😛

  • Joey B.

    Rain last night totaled to just under a 1/2 inch. Much more than expected!

  • tomocean

    Big cloud buildups happening all around Auburn right now. Thought the rain was done for a bit. Any chance of some convective activity? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e0e676b5864157d304a948cbded70e5a3b120be48096b888661c1b4367c7a735.jpg

    • lodule16

      Lotsa pent-up moisture in the canopy and understory. Same thing happening over Marin, probably not enough to get a shower together…

  • Nathan

    I know people are cheering for cutoff lows to hit SoCal through June, but based on this past megawinter, I really don’t see it happening unless models start to show a pretty significant regime shift in the medium term.

    For most of the winter we’ve had the same AK blocking pattern and a relatively strong jet, pushing progressive systems into the continental US through the mid-latitudes on a mostly W to E trajectroy, interspersed with bursts of tropical moisture that are subsumed into AR’s that have hit CA when the AK block is over the Aleutians, and OR/WA when it has drifted north.

    For a cut-off to occur, we would need a much more wobbly, sporadic jet and amplified pattern that we haven’t seen since last year, and which _did_ bring us northerly patterns conducive to cutoffs in May/June of 2016 and 2015.

    Looking at the GEFS/Euro in the short to medium term, this same pattern we’ve had through 2016-2017 should persist at least until May.

    In May, who knows what really might happen, but I’m not really seeing evidence for any type of shift conducive to cutoffs, unfortunately.

    On the plus side, bust out the sunscreen if you’re in Socal.

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      Great explanation. Definitely looking unlikely 🙁

  • alanstorm

    1.1″ from last night’s downpours, Willits, Mendocino, Co
    That puts me at “99.2 for 2016-17?

    • Chris

      You MUST break 100″!!!

      • alanstorm

        Screw it. Pouring a cup of water in the guage ?

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          LOL, I was going to suggest that!

        • Chris

          I’ll supply the water!?

          • alanstorm

            Make sure it’s enough to beat Ragdump

  • Shane Ritter

    Looks like after Sunday big cool down for us up North. Almost all next week looks cool, windy, and showery. No big storms, but it wont feel like late April! Looks the ridge stays off shore enough that we will get a northerly flow until the first week of may, so lots of cool and unsettled weather for the next 10 days.

    • Cap’n

      What about the big heat wave? Was the coin toss wrong?

      • Patrick from Stockton

        Ha Ha. Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. The 18Z GFS sure looks interesting for the medium and long range for Norcal. I don’t think we are going to see any real heat until May. I love not having to water the lawn. Good some decent rain over night last night too.

        • redlands

          wish it was that way in Southern Ca — lawn is drying up

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Even with the lack of rain for 2 mos. most of SoCal will end the rain year above normal https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c56af95756adc353f73ae1dab74f7070f8f3bad5be0dce6d13ee39331554a85e.png

    • molbiol

      I looked at data for the Pacific NW as well, and it is safe to say that most of the entire west coast did really well this winter. Mt bachelor still has a nice 10 foot base and will likely stay open till memorial day with limited lift service. Even Willamette pass has a good base but is closed due to lack of business. Definitely not the wettest year on record for Socal as I said a couple of days ago and I don’t foresee any cut-off lows in the future. The wettest years for Socal all featured at least one or two good storms during April, including 1983 when Los Angeles received 5 inches of rain over several days. I also remember cut-off lows producing severe weather including hailstorms during some the wetter springs during the 1990s. This year though it is WNW zonal flow for the foreseeable future. Also, the monsoon will be late this year but could over-perform come August

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        Also in a normal year SoCal only picks up 5 or 6 major storms; it is the amount of rain produced that makes the difference. I am delighted to record over 20 inches. It doesn’t beat 2011 [over 30′] but a welcome relief nonetheless

        • redlands

          what are your stats for that over 30 inch year — if your saying the 2010-11 year Redlands got 10.45 in December – ending the season with bout 19.29 — if it weren’t for the 10 inches in December — which was done in bout a week — the season would of been below normal — a flop of a year

      • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

        Why do you think the monsoon will be late?

        • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

          Totally tenacious troughing.

        • molbiol

          1. Weak La Nina transitioning to Neutral or weak El Nino tends to delay the monsoon (in contrast the transition to El Nino favors an early start to the monsoon BUT the monsoon is weaker and peters out early)
          2. Snow pack over the Rockies will likely delay the northward expansion of the 500mb four corner subtropical ridge
          3. Persistent NW flow will likely last thru June and into July (i.e June gloom will be very strong this year)
          4.Position of the offshore high pressure cell doesn’t look favorable

          5. Once the subtropical high moves northward it will likely be centered over the western plains and not the four corners…

          • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

            This consolidated zonal jet in late April is impressive. What do you think the cause for this is considering we’re in a La Nina?

          • molbiol

            In the short term, the offshore high pressure cell has a positive tilt which tends to favor strong NW zonal flow; this is also why we aren’t getting any cutoff lows. In the longer term scale, this consolidated jet has been with us all winter and is part of the very wet pattern California has experienced. What factors are behind this are not fully known- but have been discussed quite a bit on this blog the past several months

      • Dan the Weatherman

        Wetter years in Socal usually are longer lasting as storms go, which means that it often rains off and on into spring, even though it is generally not as heavy and frequent as it is in the middle of the winter. It is rare for a wet year such as this one to abruptly stop as soon as the calendar turned to March.

        • molbiol

          Yeah, March climate-wise is normally one of the wetter months for Socal. This year was definitely a bit weird

        • redlands

          what are your rain stats for 2016-17 — the start date of July-1st —-

  • Thunderstorm

    Looks like the last 2 big dams, Trinity and New Melones will both fill within a month.

    • WX Geek – Pleasant Hill

      New Melones filling up would be remarkable indeed. That is a HUGE reservoir with a tiny watershed. I agree, it looks likely given the massive snowpack above. Hopefully the lessons learned during the drought will help us manage this abundance of water more efficiently.

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

        Agreed. However, our storage capacity has not increased much in decades, so we need to realize that most of the extra rain water this year has and will continue to flow into the Pacific. Meaning, just because this year was 180% of normal in places, our storage capacity can only go to 100% (in best cases).

        Since our population is not flat or shrinking, conservationis alone is not a long term answer, but certainly needs to be one of the main pillars.

        I just feel we need to do a better job of capturing some of his excess rain fall since we all know the dry years will come back again and its hard to tell a population they have to cut water use by 35% while our government continues to do little to nothing to find a long term solution.

        • Urban and Ag have both become more water efficient. Doing more with less is the game. There may be one more reservoir built in the same arena as San Luis.

          • WX Geek – Pleasant Hill

            I think there is also a proposal to build a reservoir west of Williams up in the northern central valley. Similar to San Luis it would be an off-stream reservoir where water would have to be pumped in. I’m not sure what the current status is however.

          • Bombillo1

            Sites Reservoir. It is an off site storage like San Luis. West side of Sac Valley N of the delta. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sites_Reservoir

          • Pfirman

            “The first proposals for Sites appeared in the 1980s as part of the State Water Project’s Stage II.”
            Thirty plus years I have been hearing about it and nothing much has happened.

        • WX Geek – Pleasant Hill

          I think that the challenge here is that all of the suitable places for large reservoirs have already been developed. Where else are we going to store all of this water? There are a number of current and proposed projects to expand capacity of existing reservoirs, and I think those should be pursued. I also think that more recycling of urban waste water is also a good long-term plan.

          • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

            You are right. I forgot about recycled water. San Jose was looking into it I believe. For it to really get public buy-in, we probably need another mega drought.

          • shampeon

            Groundwater recharge. There’s more space underfoot than in every river canyon in California.

          • Chris

            Every year, silt, especially from winters like this one, are deposited on the reservoir floor.
            I’m sure some have tens of feet of soil taking up capacity that was not there when the reservoirs were first built.
            I say we dredge them out during dry years and use that rich topsoils for crops.
            Good idea? ?

          • PRCountyNative

            Yes. Ban all the common readily available poisons that end up in the sediment too.

          • Tuolumne

            Moving large amounts of low-value (per cubic yard) bulk materials long distances (a score or more miles) gets really expensive really fast. Ditto with the cost of spreading it on farmland. This is why farmers don’t spread organic matter on their fields wholesale – they can’t afford it.

            Wait till the taxpayers get the bill for dredging reservoirs and moving the silt. The screams will be audible on Mars, vacuum of space or not.

          • Danlyle (Mariposa)

            I hung out with my friend one day in high-school when he was driving a big dump truck. The job was emptying a flood control reservoir in the San Gabriel mountains that had become silted. Huge project, likely expensive, but in that situation cheaper than building another dam structure above or below.

          • Tuolumne

            Socal has a lot of what they call debris basins – reservoirs up in the mountains (small by most standards but sometimes still impressive to look at) whose job it is to catch mudflows before they leave the mountains and devastate urban areas downstream. These are not classic flood-control reservoirs (far too small for that) but another animal entirely. They do need to be cleaned out periodically, but the volumes are still miniscule compared to what’s in our larger reservoirs.

          • Chris

            But consider…. unlike natural lakes, most reservoirs have a large and long fetch of water flowing into it containing a lot of silt.
            A small pond near my house has gained 30 feet of shore where the creek flows into it.
            I would also think the delivering of the silt to farmers would be free since it would provide a place to “dump” the extra dirt.

          • Danlyle (Mariposa)

            This is an very interesting article, because of the scale involved. Lake Powell is inconceivably large. The shore line is longer than the western coast of the lower 48.

            http://www.hcn.org/issues/43.6/muddy-waters-silt-and-the-slow-demise-of-glen-canyon-dam

          • ben

            Fantastic read!!

          • max

            Natural basins, below the rivers and creeks, in the normal flood plains. Because that soil is so fertile, it was claimed as farming areas. The earlier links to be able to use that land to recapture those lands as perk basins, to recharge the aquifers , in my mind, would be the optimum.

        • Chris

          One new way of capturing rainwater is to NOT have yards drain quickly to the streets. Some residents have a tube attached to their house gutter and it pours directly into the street which goes right into the bay or creeks depending on where you live.
          Residential areas repel over 50% of the rainfall from soaking into the ground due to bulding structures, concrete, and asphalt.
          Crunched housing neighborhoods would be much more.
          So we have a rising population that needs water and the resultant neighborhoods that prevent much of it from soaking into the ground.
          Double negative.

          • max

            Yes, yes, yes. Been shown actually, that the perk ratio of.water in.grass lawns. Are much better than hardscape.Zeriscape, after the introduction of pavement. It runs off the hard soil and gravel, into the storm drains
            That is where we should be capturing the water… Good points, all.

          • ben

            Austrailians subsidise home rain water catchment systems, many californian communities could benifit from something like this.

        • max

          Our water resource , here in Ojai, is 70% agriculture, the rest going to our housing and small businesses. We need the food, but again , the Agri Business needs to make a profit, and they pay taxes on their return, and, hopefully pay their workers above table, so that they also pay their taxes, and are able to contribute to the whole economy.
          We have the Matajilla Dam, which was not designed properly, and.is full.of.sediment. The powers that be, have been decided ” We don’t need no stinking State water, and never hooked up, so’..
          Here we are. 30 inches of rain this year, our Lake Casitas has gone ALL THE WAY FROM 36% , to 45%. CALL IT failed Resource management. and failed Politics

    • For those curious, Trinity is less than 6.5 feet from full. Melones is about 39 feet from filling as of Friday morning, 4/21.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    KCRA has some amazing pictures from Don Pedro and all the logs and other “junk” that’s flowed into the lake from years of drought and fires like the Rim Fire. Not fun to be in if you’re a boater, definitely wouldn’t be friendly to your prop let alone your wakeboard or waterski.
    https://twitter.com/KCRALindaMumma/status/855143559418097665
    https://twitter.com/KCRALindaMumma/status/855143559418097665

    • PRCountyNative

      Absent motorboats, it becomes ‘valuable organic matter, part of the cycle of all life’.

      Towing the press there to see the hazard perfectly displays the value and intelligence of for-profit news these days, the same folks who report on climate change and all things weather.

    • Danlyle (Mariposa)

      Kept my wakeboard boat at Moccasin Creek marina on Lake Don Pedro for a couple years (until the lake literally dried up, thank you drought). It was predicable that all that burn debris was going to be the trade-off when significant run-off ever came. I predict other lakes around the state have similar issues for Spring boating. The Tuolumne drainage was likely extra “dirty” after these recent years of lame run-off and fires.

    • Nathan

      new sport: steeplechase wakeboarding

  • ThomTissy

    Bring on the heat wave please.

    • alanstorm

      Will be 71° here tomorrow.
      There’s your heatwave.

  • alanstorm
  • Cap’n

    Northern California still active in the long range? Buddy in Olympia is thoroughly sick of it. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e485d187f9e80e0a52cec18bb9ee169479d23f9479eab380f8bc3d14b0dbf339.png

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      You’re still in the purps! I’ve got nothing but dry shake.

    • Charlie B

      My daughter (one of 4) is in college in Bellingham. She just sent me a picture of a glorious spring day up there. She escaped Reno for college because she wanted rain and not desert. I want to have her join this group as “Karla B.”

      • inclinejj

        I escaped Pacifica because we had two seasons rainy and foggy in the summer. Wanted to live where they had 4 different seasons.

        My buddies daughter went to PLU and would call and say I really miss Pacificas weather.

      • annette johnson

        Four? Yikes!? That is nothing short of a challenge-you gotta love ’em though! Hope she joins!

        • Pfirman

          As a group name, like parliament of owls or murder of crows, that is called a dependence of daughters, lol.

          • annette johnson

            Lol!

  • Top is Spring 2017 bottom Spring 1983
    The Blue dots are all time high. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/86f2d2285006d688261e140db63374ea0d8c4c643262a0275fa87021096b682a.jpg

    • max

      I am have asked this question several times : What are the years involved I ” All time high” ? I am currently reading several books on California, from the 1800s, and forward, and see so many storm and flood situations prior to 1900, based on river.observations etc. Would just like to be to correlate past with.present
      Many thanks.

      • This type of data goes back to early 1980’s. If I can remember I’ll stick the link in my post. Good question. All time highs are only good for the period that the devices are in operation. I looked for 1951-52 season and no data for snow water content. Using the term All time high is a bad way to represent this data when it’s only been a few decades

  • Charlie B

    On the way down from Reno the Sierra was snowy. From 30,000 feet here is Yosemite Valley (Half Dome in left center) and the Merced below the park. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c992e15dcf15ad61d374774fbe63d822419d83e70d4d011fd9c6ea93b6bf76f9.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b442ca72cc4e6cf265e5bb24159d1bada121781f29eca9a5f15f51a25b1bc6c3.jpg

    • inclinejj

      Charlie

      Did the 1952(?) storm journals end, or did you just stop posting them?

      I enjoyed reading them.

      • Charlie B

        Sorry for the delay. Yup…the big 1952 storms ended in late March.
        I am figuring out the next subject of some fun reading. Also, my temporary access to my data base ended.
        I do think there might be another pioneer diary update soon. Not quite sure.

  • molbiol

    This is nothing more than treating a severe gunshot wound with a band-aid and then claiming that said gun-shot wound is not really a wound at all…

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2017/04/20/the-march-for-science-could-break-stubborn-stereotypes-about-scientists/?tid=ss_tw

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Anyone know the road conditions into Yosemite come the way of HWY120? Taking the grand kid to the San Jose fish camp with cousins and a friend next friday, and will go to Yosemite valley first to check out the water falls.

    • Google caltrans 120

    • Tazmanian

      you need too take other way too Yosemite has it seems like you can not get there from high way 120

      https://www.mymotherlode.com/news/local/294193/yosemite-updates-repairs-to-big-oak-flat.html

    • Niteheron

      They just started plowing the east side so it will be might be a month or two before Tioga Pass opens up.

      https://www.facebook.com/VisitEasternSierra/posts/1790931010918860

      • Henry

        It will take much longer than a month. There is a huge snowpack in areas above 8000 feet in the Tuolumne and Merced watersheds, which includes much of the Tioga Road, with most areas having snow water equivalents of 50 to 100 inches. For example Tenaya Lake is currently at 67 inches water equivalent, or 203% of April 1 average. Even if the road were plowed, it will not open until the Olmstead avalanche zone is under control. I cannot recall a year with this much snow, when the Tioga Road opened earlier than June.

        • Niteheron

          Wow you’re right. I keep thinking it is already May already. Yea I agree, I don’t foresee Tioga Pass opening till end of June.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Thank you guys for the replies. Good thing I inquired, the Oak Flat closure kills going to the valley Friday. More time being referee to 13 year olds…. Imagine, spotty cell service with the ear bud generation.

  • AlTahoe

    Hmm hopefully the 18z is a one off run. It shows the storm door opening for Norcal starting around hour 200 and continuing through the end with the 540 line over Tahoe most of the time.

    • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

      How times have changed. Your post would have been blasphemy on here three years ago.

      • AlTahoe

        RIght? But man, I feel like cold weather through the first week of May is going to be more brutal than usual after we get a taste of some 60’s this Saturday.

        • alanstorm

          Low of 39° predicted for here by week’s end.
          Cold & clear tonight.
          Have 2 bring in the Brass Monkeys

      • It’s late April. Jose Mota would have been excited.

    • SacWx

      Hour 372 is glorious.

    • Apotropaic

      06z still shows this pattern.

    • Howard was all over inside sliders in May?

  • ben
  • Howard Goodman

    Use to live in the Bay Area where we’d measure rainfall in tenth’s now I use a yard stick https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f3cb6e9beae15f0849c08118e8faf0974eabf293df959fca44e692d5a169304b.png

    • 2012-13 WY 82″
      2013-14 WY 60″
      2014-15 WY 66″
      2015-16 WY 100″
      That seems like a lot of precip to everyone else.
      You use yardsticks every year 🙂

      • Howard Goodman

        Almost I think the worst I did was 59 but the last 2 years my creeks dried up , my upper creek has dried 4 years in a row and I haven’t seen anymore fish in it , the lower creek has never dried up before this drought still had a few water holes because there’s still a few fish in it . In the drought years looks like you beat me must be from the clouds blowing in from the Ocean

    • weathergeek100

      Incredible. I’m from San Diego where we celebrated, cheered out loud, closed the schools and avoided the dangerous freeways every time that rare occasion came when we measured 0.01. Now I live in the Bay Area and rain seems like more of an annoying nuisance to most people (though I love it).

  • alanstorm
    • Howard Goodman

      I know Willits isn’t a big place , do you happen to know my friend Reuel Brundage he’s a Log truck driver

      • alanstorm

        No. Pretty much only know my neighbors, & we’re up on the ridge out of the town. Moved in 2000 from Santa Cruz so I’m not originally from here.

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          Are you above the typical marine layer? Maybe too far inland?

          • alanstorm

            Both. Willits is 25 mi inland & at 1400ft, pic from my location looking East is at 2000ft.
            Willits itself is in that valley, & valley fog forms quite a bit when it’s cold & damp, sometimes with zero visibility.
            In summer, it will be 101°, then drive 10 minutes towards the coast on Hiway 20 to Ft Bragg & you have WEEKS of thick marine layer. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/161de23111422dab5138b48da1100e5ccac970d520b78770a7e5ecf9b611ec46.jpg

          • happ [Los Angeles]

            Micro climate; probably warmer nights up at your elevation

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Mendocino county is glorious!

      • alanstorm

        Humboldt ain’t bad either.
        (Twin rain guages in lower left of pic so I can measure twice as much precip)

  • DelMarSD

    I should go skiing at Mammoth one of these weekends. Probably won’t be very crowded. Anyone gone recently?

    • matthew

      Not Mammoth, but my wife ski’s daily at Northstar. No crowds. Spring conditions (hardpack/ice, followed by a couple hours of decent snow, followed by slush). Basically 2 hours a day of good snow.

      • Henry

        Is Northstar still open??? I recall that they catered to the yuppies and young families who go up to Tahoe with the holiday and wintertime crowds, not to the hardcore skiers who keep skiing into May. I would have guessed that Northstar skiers would have lost interest in skiing and found other things to do by the middle of April.

        • matthew

          Northstar closes on Sunday. That is when their annual insurance policy runs out. It is an intermediate mountain in terms of difficulty so it suits young families (and perpetual intermediates, like my wife) perfectly. Groomer paradise with just enough entry-level black to keep it interesting. That said, none of the resorts are crowded at this time of year regardless of the snowpack.

          • inclinejj

            Northstar’s nickname among Tahoe people is Flatstar.

            I have always liked the back side.

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      I was there mid week 4/18-4/19 on a 2ft powder day and it was 90% locals and empty. Best time of year to go…especially with the giant base that will last through most of the summer…

      Although if you don’t have a pass, $149 lift ticket is criminal. You’d think they’d lower it past peak season.

      • Shecky

        That’s why I quit …I won’t pay that. I’ll go ride dirt bikes in the dez and mountains…it Kalifornistan keeps it up I’ll be a full fledged criminal!!

      • Crouching Dallas

        I was up there as well, Slash! How great was the top and backside on Wednesday? Hit Cornice/Dropout/Hemlocks for a pretty nice series of runs.

        Also, argued with a guy about geoengineering in the early gondi line. Could have definitely used some WW backup!

        • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

          Ya crouch! So good up top. I was in that early gondola line and got my best Dropout 2 this year right before 23 loaded. I have an automatic tendency to go right to dragons tail after I lap the top a few times so I didn’t get to hit the backside unfortunately. I heard the good reports. We scored that day!

          • Crouching Dallas

            Scored indeed, duder! And super funny that we were in the same gondi line. For reference, I was the tall dude talking loudly about his new Jones Hovercraft, the bullshit singles line they made adjacent to the earlier line, and weather (not in that order). Perhaps you were nearby?

            Also, I should have made your move over to Dropout 2 instead of hitting Cornice Bowl. It was great, but that was smart to get up to D2 when only Gondi was loading. I’ll remember that for next time.

            Lastly – how was Dragon’s Tail? How’d the snow on that side of the mountain compare to the top? Was surprisingly deep in Santiago/Hemlocks area, so I’m interested to see if that was the case on the flip side as well.

          • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

            Ey man I think I was talking to you about the fruits of hovercrafting in the chair 3 lift line before that?! …I had an orange jacket and ride the same board but smaller?…crazy ass coincidence if that was you because when we were about to load on the lift, I heard dude mutter something about “zonal jet”. HA!

            It was deep on the tail and kinda wind affected on dragon back, but good… I really think that was the last real powder day this year…any big dump in May like that and the sun will turn it into sticky hot pow before 10am.

          • Crouching Dallas

            Haha, no fucking way. I was (and am!) the dude with the 160 Hovercraft – was my first powder day with it, if you recall. Spoon nose for days! Too funny, man. And I also think you were either on the same chair as me or one thereafter as Chair3 opened, right? Then you + everybody else dropped into West Bowl off the face, and I figured I’d do the same. Think I even spotted you walking up to the early Gondi line, but I was about halfway up there? Anyways, the WW brotherhood clearly rules. Feel free to add me on Instagram (@joeyfarewell) – gray whale’s on there too, under the same moniker.

            As for the mountain, glad to hear that the dragon’s tail delivered (which sounds weird, haha). The trees over there are usually a good bet. Hemlocks, which I’d never hiked before, was really good and held up pretty well until 1ish. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a3c5f40b975a37380602036b69ac9d8aeb1c86fce9d47bbbce1daae0627123c8.jpg
            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7b147dd909959a84880736da2b29cb5332f43b7b835b2cf663375e17dc13e42f.jpg

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Hate this kind of weather when the wind keeps blowing all night.

    • molbiol

      You think you have it bad? Try living in Lancaster. I swear I’m about to go clinically insane…

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        in the early 80’s I spent some time out at the Solar One DOE test site near Barstow, where they were testing the feasibility of creating steam with solar heat. “Solar One’s method of collecting energy was based on concentrating the sun’s energy onto a common focal point to produce heat to run a steam turbine generator. It had hundreds of large mirror assemblies, or heliostats, that track the sun, reflecting the solar energy onto a tower where a black receiver absorbed the heat. High-temperature heat transfer fluid was used to carry the energy to a boiler on the ground where the steam was used to spin a series of turbines, much like a traditional power plant.” †

        We were doing receiving tower temperature calibrations to help reveal hot spots that were causing heat fractures on the receiver panels. Anyway, every day it was howling windy, dusty and a pain to work in because our readings were unreliable due to the movement of our instruments by the winds. I remember thinking at the time how much of a pain it must be to live in that environment.

        Seems so long ago…. In November of ’09 the site was taken down, now it’s gone back to desert. And the winds – are still blowing… Wind generated power generation is better suited for that part of the country, as evidenced by the big wind turbines being put in now across the Tehachapis and the Altamont pass.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Solar_Project#Solar_One

      • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

        Hot and windy or cold and windy…

      • malnino

        Think you already may be, brother. No other explanation for still waking up every day in Lancastertucky …

        • molbiol

          Lancaster definitely features several- shall we say..”clashing demographics”; or to put it another way, Lancaster features the worse that each demographic group has to offer

    • Dan the Weatherman

      There hasn’t been much wind at all here in Orange, except for the usual afternoon breezes and the nighttime land breezes that usually occur in the fall and winter months. The Santa Anas were forecast to blow 15-25 mph, but never materialized in my area, although they may have blown further inland and in the Santa Ana Mountains.

  • Howard Goodman

    Well at least they are screwing around with the spillway for Oroville Dam ,awarded the contract last Tuesday and they’re going to start blasting today with the water running http://www.chicoer.com/general-news/20170421/blasting-could-start-today-on-oroville-dam-spillway

    • Lol.

    • I think the plan is to break up some of the lower spillway so when the gates are closed for the season it’s quicker for them to remove is my best guess.

      • Howard Goodman

        They where taking down some of the erosion cliffs first they said some are 100 feet high