Unusually strong April storm headed for Northern California this week

Filed in Uncategorized by on April 5, 2017 2,271 Comments

Recent weather overview

A rather impressive, complex storm system will approach the California coast on Thursday and Friday. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

After a record wet winter across much of Northern California (and a less impressive but still above average winter in Southern California), March was a relatively dry month across most of the state. This was especially true across the southern third of California, where little to no significant precipitation occurred amidst warmer than average temperatures. These relatively early spring-like conditions not only mean that Sierra snowmelt season is in full swing, but also have combined with prodigious winter rains to produce spectacular wildflower displays across southern and central California.

 

Unusually strong April storm to bring high-impact weather to much of California

A deep surface low will approach the OR/CA coastline on Friday, and may approach record strength for this time of year. (NCEP)

Despite the warm and relatively dry interlude over the past few weeks, it now appears quite likely that winter-like weather conditions will return rather suddenly over the next couple of days. Northern California will be in the crosshairs of an unusually powerful late-season Pacific storm system from Thursday into the weekend. A pair of pretty deep surface lows are expected to spin up just offshore the North Coast, bringing strong and perhaps even damaging winds to a wide swath of Northern California (perhaps as far south as the Bay Area and Sacramento region). In fact, the surface low off of the Oregon coast on Friday afternoon will probably approach record strength for this time of year, since deep lows typically become uncommon in this region once April rolls around. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact placement and strength of this relatively complex storm system, which could lead to a fairly wide range of wind and rain impacts. In general, however, I would expect this to be quite an impressive storm for this time of year, and will possibly be the strongest system to affect California since February. The upcoming weather will be remarkable primarily due to its late seasonal timing, however, and is unlikely to rival the very strong storm systems California experienced during December and January this past winter.

 

Atmospheric river to bring heavy rain and mountain snow

The Thursday/Friday storm will be associated with an impressive April atmospheric river. (NCEP via UCSD)

A rather strong atmospheric river will be associated with the Friday/Saturday storm across Northern California, and will bring the potential for heavy late-season precipitation (especially in orographically favored regions). There is still some uncertainty regarding just how warm the initial precipitation will be, and it is possible that rain may fall above pass level in the Sierra Nevada due to a warm antecedent springtime airmass. By Saturday, however, cold air will likely drop snow levels considerably, bringing at least small snow accumulations down to 4000 feet or so. Therefore, it’s possible that this storm system will be yet another that yields considerable net snowpack at the highest elevations (above 7000-8000 feet) and reduces net snowpack below that level. Thus, there will be a risk of flooding from the combination of heavy rainfall and snowmelt at lower elevations, which may continue well into next week as temperatures warm behind the storm and clear sky snowmelt accelerates. Outside of the Sierra Nevada, only minor hydrological issues are expected given relatively dry antecedent conditions.

Heavy high Sierra snow accumulations are likely this weekend, with light accumulations to relatively low elevations on Sat/Sun. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

The Central Coast could see significant precipitation from this weekend’s storm, though most of Southern California will likely only see light rainfall and little wind impact.


It’s that time of year: thunderstorms likely in Central Valley; possibly elsewhere

A cyclonically curved jet will combine with cold air aloft to bring a fairly widespread risk of NorCal thunderstorms on Fri/Sat. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Cold air aloft and the close proximity of multiple surface lows will be conducive to convective instability across much of Northern California on Friday and Saturday. As is often the case in these sort of situations, the Central Valley will likely be an area of enhanced activity due to increased surface heating and topographical effects. A few severe thunderstorms are possible, especially if there are enough breaks in the clouds between waves of precipitation later Friday into Saturday. The air aloft will be sufficiently cold that fairly widespread showers of small hail could occur. All in all, it looks like a pretty active weather period for the northern 2/3 of the state, with some modest showers across the south.

 

Warming tropical Pacific: rumblings of a new El Niño?

Remarkably warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean has recently occurred off the coast of Peru. (tropicaltidbits.com)

Extremely warm ocean temperature along the immediate Peruvian coastline have led to devastating flooding in normal arid coastal desert regions in recent weeks. This warming has resulted from reduced cold water upwelling associated with the Humboldt Current, which has historically been linked to the early development of significant El Niño episodes. While we’re still in the midst of high predictive uncertainty associated with the “Spring Predictability Barrier,” numerical models are nearly unanimous in suggesting a trend toward renewed warming of the tropical Pacific over the summer months. It’s still too early to say much more than that, but if current trends persist I’ll eventually have a more extensive discussion of what a new El Niño event would mean for California in light of the failure of the powerful 2015-2016 event to bring heavy precipitation to the Golden State. Stay tuned!

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  • Bombillo1

    Warming up here by the 23rd. There will be a lot of upper 80s in the valleys. Going to look and feel like Fiji, green and humid.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    It’s April 14th, Tahoe Donner Downhill (and many other resorts )are closing this Sunday. I think this picture says a lot about this season, they’re using the snowblower to clear the deck Friday of their closing weekend! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bc4d73b21827427d4c730786108b0f4ff88768b2d48b4a3244b48bc583ae62d4.jpg

    • matthew

      And to think that I was just out shopping for patio/deck furniture a couple days ago…

    • BRP (Ventura)

      And that is a very poignant comment that sums up our winter perfectly! Blowing off the deck 2 days before closing for the season! Classic. Thanks for sharing.

    • Probably due to insurance policy period, staffing and a few other things?

      • matthew

        It is usually insurance, staffing, and national forest lease period. Lack of customers also plays a big role. Truckee has gotten pretty quiet the last two weeks, even with the big snow. I would guess that this weekend will be the last of the crowds up here until June.

        • Cap’n

          Staffing but primarily lack of customers. People are in flip flops now and it’s just not worth it to keep things spinning.

          • matthew

            Former neighbor used to run Northstar/Heavenly/Kirkwood (now in Utah). I remember him mentioning that this time of year a lot of the seasonal help is leaving town to line up work for the summer.

          • Cap’n

            It will be an amazing backcountry season. With each of these storms the mountain biking and backpacking season keeps getting shorter for the high country, a good problem to have!

          • matthew

            I was hoping to do a good hunk of the Tahoe Rim trail this summer. Probably need to scale that back.

          • Cap’n

            We’re going to try Crystal Peak tomorrow, ever done it?

          • matthew

            Hiking? Snowshoe? No, have not done it.

          • Cap’n

            Hike part, bringing the snowshoes.

        • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

          Also add in lack of employees, most winter employees are either back in their home country or onto their summer jobs (forestry, summer resorts etc).

    • Cap’n

      Never seems to fail. Closing day last year at Sugie I scored a 2 foot powder day (wife tore her ACL when the sun got on it). Also got a 30″ closing day at Kirkwood I think 4 winters ago. We’ll see if I get lucky again this year.

      • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

        Closing with 20 feet of snow, never thought I would here that

  • Drew Stofflet

    Yeee-haw. Road trip. Join the masses. Master the art of death-defying selfies. See ya there. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f5d6af282132518408362c9289ddc56c2d48cef8051185dcdc777c21392f17b5.jpg

    • ben

      The book “Death in the valley” tells the story of a bloke uptop yosemete falls who asks his mate ” take a photo of me pretending to fall off the falls”. The mate doesnt get the shot and requests “try to pretend to fall off again”. He falls off.

  • alanstorm

    No heat wave in the 10 day yet (at least NorCal) Maybe a 70° popping up briefly, bit nary an 80°.
    WW had one for the last week of April.
    What happened? Looks like continued cool onshore flow

  • Howard Goodman

    The Four trees weather station has been screwed up for awhile but it gets updates every so often https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/18aa176bed5fa9113c27d8abc74c58e9ecb6292f9647b9dd60087ede34b1d777.png

    • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

      The stations at Camp 6 and and
      Wilder Ridge, Humboldt County will probably beat out Four Trees and yours this year. Camp Six got 257 inches in 1982-1983 and Wilder Ridge averages 145.48 inches a year.

      • Howard Goodman

        Yeah that’s alot never found those stations anywhere ,I’ve been looking for along time for stations that had more than me or Four Trees , that’s one reason I posted on here

      • Howard Goodman

        Yeah just found that 257 inch record for Camp 6 but that’s all I can find

  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

    This pretty much tells the story, storms of cut of after the Central California and the Southern Sierras. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6181ed5c86b88cebe4f50ef2b92a1ff28fc771ebe24eb9b086f6cc9b61ba43d6.png

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      Ouch

    • Craig Matthews

      What is up with that anomalously dry area from Shasta Lake up toward the Squaw and Pit River Watersheds?

      • Bombillo1

        Pit 5 is at 141.00 inches. My place has that or more. I’m not aware of having taken the month off. Looks like some RAWS got their solar panels stolen.

  • Cap’n

    Actually got my guys out on the outdoor basketball court in Kings Beach. Cool and crisp, dodged some snow but still shot some hoops. Not a bad view from the office. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e31c9059db52e1831f41198a5eddaf80fcaf2253a2bb172606111996de056788.jpg

    • The 20 inches of snow I just hit were a dream come true. So good for mid april.

      • Cap’n

        Sweet. I think last weekend was my best of the season; cold deep powder Saturday and bluebird Sunday. One helluvah spring. I’ll be hiking for turns tomorrow up Castle Peak and on the lifts Sunday for a little storm riding hopefully. I think anyone on any of the mountains scored today.

  • Tazmanian

    the 12z brings back the heat wave with mid 80s and low 90s in the valley and mts by week of the 20th

  • gedawei

    View of showers over Silicon Valley from Sierra Vista Open Space Preserve at about 7 pm yesterday.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/981b4b1a59fde5bb6d0cd423cf1d01248b90756040392f1642314c312cc631fc.jpg

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Beautiful shot

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Winner! Wow.

    • Nathan

      wow, what is that lens made of? space crystals?!

    • lodule16

      What’s an infinity pond for horses run these days?

      Great shot.

      • Sfedblog

        Nice pic.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    It is cool in LA & looks to stay that way for a while. Lots of maximums in the 60’s yesterday and maybe today as well

  • Charlie B

    Does the weather get nasty in April up in the California Sierra? Consider this from Sacramento Bee archives:

    APRIL 15, 1978

    A cold winter storm spawned by cold, unstable air spreading southward from the Gulf of Alaska brings a traveler’s advisory [now called a winter storm warning] for heavy snow and gusty winds in the Sierra. Snow levels are at 4,000 feet and dropping to 2,500 feet overnight. Widespread blowing and drifting snow likely.

    APRIL 15, 1978

    Squaw Valley tram jumps cable; 3 dead!

    At least 3 people were killed and many more injured when one tram jumped the tracks and the other jammed the cable, stranding more than 100 skiers and leaving the derailed car dangling from a safety cable over 100′ above the ground in a howling blizzard. The accident occurred at about 3:45pm when a tram car with 42 people in it traveling down from the summit jumped off the main cable and plummeted 45-60 feet before being caught in mid air by a safety cable. Reports say that the tension from the support cables catapulted the car back into the air like a yo-yo and it was sliced open when it crashed into the main overhead cable. Windes were gusting 60-80 mph at the time, with heavy blowing snow. “We’ve operated the tram in a lot worse weather” stated Squaw Valley spokesman Bill Boardman.
    I was at Squaw that day. The weather was indeed nasty; we gave up and left at noon. Fortunately.

    Here’s a link to a story on this.http://tahoequarterly.com/winter-2014-2015/tram-car-trauma

    • Thunderstorm

      See that BIG blob of blue in the NE Pacific. Seems to be getting bigger and colder thus as I’ve been saying for 6 weeks, here come the winds late April thru early June. Deserts will be getting the worst of it.

    • Cap’n

      Hey Charlie I know Soda Springs is nowhere near the record 51-52′ of 800″, but where is it at now at the Central Sierra Snowlab? I’d imagine in the neighborhood of 600″ or so, plus a crap load of rain? I find it impossible to get this info. Oh well, not the massive snow of that historic year, but a huge winter this has turned out to be. I’m over 350″ at 5,900 ft against the crest. I’d imagine that the high Sierra, above 10K must have peaks and passes that saw all snow even during those warmer storms that are in the 1,000″ discussion. I’d love to find out what Shasta has received above 12K.

      • Charlie B

        I don’t know how to find that info either. I think due to rain they are closer to 550 but who knows. As for upper elevations, Helen Lake on Lassen must be way high, and I can surmise that many places over 9k are over 1,000. That is why I mentioned a while back that it is too bad someone didn’t foresee this year and place monitors on, say, the west side of Pyramid Peak at about 9k near Desolation.Wilderness.

        • Cap’n

          I posted a picture below you can see how buried Desolation is, or at least you could with the naked eye, tougher with a camera phone.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      I remember hearing stories of the tram problem at Squaw from my uncle when I was young. He even pointed out the problem area at one point….not great when you’re 8 yrs old and now scared to ride a tram due to an accident that happened years before.

    • CHeden

      What a great backintheday tidbit!
      I recall this event…. but just from a curiosity standpoint.

    • Hardcort

      The tram was rated to operate in 100 mph winds

  • janky

    Apologies if this was posted already but kind of funny from Reno NWS disc:

    “Week 2 Outlook…April 20-26th. – Issued 3pm 4/13.

    By the end of next week model simulations begin to develop a strange

    feature. It appears to be a reverse, or upside down trough (known in

    previous winters as a ridge). This will likely bring a warming and

    drying trend to the region next weekend. For those of you ready for

    a sunny warm spring weekend this may finally be your chance.”

    • Tazmanian

      am ready for my warm weekend i think i can say for all of us here in N CA we had enough rain for this rain season am ready too start the dry season

      • TheNothing

        Nope, not me.

      • Sfedblog

        I’m in N CA and take umbrage with the notion that we would want less rain simply because we’re tired of the wet. In fact, this is the time of year when more rain would be very beneficial to drought relief. Remember that drought? Well, despite views to the contrary, we still have very depleted ground water, even in N CA. Keep the spigot open.

        • Arctic River (Suisun City)

          What we need to do is find a way to make it rain underground; until then, we’re hosed.

  • Fairweathercactus

    GFS today shows the ridge holding together a little better for So Cal keeping the area 100% dry.

  • happ [Los Angeles]
  • Nathan
  • happ [Los Angeles]
    • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

      I don’t believe the Bay Area has ever got a slight risk let alone have an average of .25 a year

    • CHeden

      Here in the North Valley, we average probably well over a dozen convective days in a given year…with a least 3-4 severe storm warning/advisories within just the Valley alone.
      I’d say this chart is either very misleading, or the definition of “convective slight risk” is something I’m not familiar with.

      • inclinejj

        I think someone explained this a couple years back. It seems like the Woodland area gets the wild spring and fall severe storms.

        • Pfirman

          Not so. Having lived in Chico and Woodland, the former wins hands down.
          And not to bring you down, CHeden, I just read that LA county gets the most tornados by far in California.

  • alanstorm

    Normally, I’d be all-for a strong zonal Pacific jetstream forecast for Monday, but in this case, it could end up transporting some very unwelcome radioactive fallout from a possible thermonuclear exchange this weekend in Korea?
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8d8bad2dc9a86fccb2b2bc60ec6af93cb4dd2d285685b833a315f38bc1ff2554.jpg

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Don’t go there, OK?

      • alanstorm

        Ok .
        Here’s an amazing pic- mid April snow visible from town. Can’t remember the last time I’ve seen it this late in the season
        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f808e517b1336c945a844c9de961a99bf7f2932019253f81a1217be29162b769.jpg

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          Ahh, much better. : ^ )

        • Pfirman

          Can see snow on Snow Mountain from Woodland, just so you know. But almost drove off the road driving between Woodland and Davis when I looked east at the Sierra Crest. The whole damn thing is lit up and the Tahoe area is so top heavy it looks fake.

    • click

      Thanks, I needed a (an uncomfortable) laugh today

  • Charlie B

    We are now learning that the Reno NWS folks enjoy writing their AFD’s. The Reno Gazette newspaper is getting into the swing of things it seems. Headline:
    GUARD: FLOOD DANGER LOOMS! The article then says: “Nevada could see weeks of Katrina-like flooding when warm spring and summer sunshine melts the massive snowpack blanketing the Sierra Nevada.”
    Two years ago on this date everyone was mountain biking and worried about whether the rivers would run dry. California-Nevada is becoming bi-polar it seems.

    • inclinejj

      Katrina was a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane this current Sierra Nevada is due to snow melt.

      • Charlie B

        Yup. Even our fearless leader notes the Katrina reference re upcoming snow melt.

      • Thor

        At landfall, Katrina was a Cat 3.

    • Chris

      Let’s see where the models are in a week.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        That heatwave will likely happen because the rainy season ended earlier than usual in Socal as it has been very dry since March 1. I predict that will be the first multi-day spike into the 90’s for L.A. and vicinity that is so common in years like this. The tendency for these major heat spikes to occur in spring when the rainy season ends so early is why I am always complaining about an early end to the rainy season.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Oh, boy. I almost forgot about those mid-spring heat waves.

    • sezwhom
    • sezwhom

      IF one believes the 06z run of GFS, then we might be looking at rain again and not warm temps on the 25th. Remember, there’s a ton of climatology built into these models for April 25th. This is not a normal climate year. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e9350083f7aa00336679c72e640b00ecbd01f02898a31e836c2430eecfc16cd4.png

    • Charlie B

      I noted below the alarmist headlines in Reno’s newspaper and the Katrina reference.

      • Ah, yes…that is a misleading title. I read the original article–which is pretty solid and informative–but the RGJ title has since changed. Sadly, that seems to happen quite often…

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        If I am not mistaken (and that’s possible) there isn’t a lot of water storage east of the Sierra? You have the Truckee ones (boca, stampede, prosser), Lahton, Washoe lake and Pyramid which already has had many issues this winter. Plus aren’t they still dealing with flooding in the Sun Valley area?

        There’s really no where for the water to easily go.

        • Charlie B

          I got halfway thru a comment on this subject and then the wife brought over a martini and I decided not to send. So, yes on Lemmon valley is flooding and Fallon is scared. No upstream storage on the Carson and lahontan is full and it all will just pass thru..

    • CHeden

      Thanks to this Winter pattern featuring some nice cold spells intermixed with wetter and warmer periods, I’d think that a large bulk of the accumulated “snowpack” above 9-10k’ is locked up in the form of quasi-glacial ice..as compared to a less dense pure snowpack of equal water content. If so, then the short- period “max runoff” amount would be lower from ice melt vs. snowmelt, but conversely last much longer into the Spring/Summer. Not sure if this applies to the Carson and Walker river watersheds, but thought i’d throw this out anyway as a glimmer of hope of catastrophe narrowly averted.

      • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

        So your saying a ton of the snow above 9-10 k feet will create temporary glaciers or buildto the ones that exist now?

        • CHeden

          Most likely there will be a lot of unmelted ice in the highest elevations come Fall. For example, glaciers on Mt. Shasta are going to get a boost this year. But, my main point is that the melt-rate of ice is lower than that of a simply compressed snowpack which has a faster melt-rate.

          • inclinejj

            Aren’t glaciers created over thousands of years?

          • CHeden

            Correct. I made the glacial reference mostly for illustration purposes to help distinguish snowpack from solid ice. In theory, the water content of solid ice by volume is not quite 1:1 to that of liquid water (remember ice expands as it solidifies). From what I can gather, the current snow-water ratio in some of the the higher elevations are around 3-4 to one, which is Sierra Cement with a hardener included.

          • max

            I understand that there are more than 100 glaciers in CA at the present.

      • The vast majority of the overall snow water content, though, comes from below 9000 feet–and all of that’s going to melt. Some of the really high elevation Sierra Nevada glaciers might indeed have gotten a reprieve this year with some net positive accumulation (after several years of extreme negative mass balance). But probably 90-95% of the total water volume is going to end up in some watershed or another over the next 4-5 months; the question is how quickly it goes.

        • CHeden

          As you say, the caveat is how fast.
          Thanks for the clarification on where the max water content is. I would have thought that east of the crest the most water would have been higher up nearer the crest.

          • There’s very little land in California above 9000 feet, relatively speaking. So even though the snowpack above that level is very deep, there is a much greater net contribution from the less deep but much more expansive snowpack elsewhere.

          • CHeden

            Thanks Daniel. I see now what you’re driving at.
            Does this apply to the Walker and Carson drainage area, too? According to Wikipedia, the primary source for the Carson is West Carson river, at an elevation of 9, 640′
            …which is why I was thinking that ice (rather than snowpack) would be the main source of runoff for the Carson.
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walker_River

    • Nathan

      Katrina?…….really…….

  • Jim

    These guys have had a tornado touch down several times in Texas….
    http://www.severestorms.com.au/index.php/usa-storm-chase/live-storm-chase-usa

  • Thunderstorm

    A long heat spell will cause serious problems at Oroville.Water shed is saturated, all up stream reservoirs are 100% full. Even Lake Almanor may spill first time ever.(Almanor gets a lot of runoff from around Lassen) Why are they not releasing more water from Shasta??? DWR may look ———– pretty soon.

    • CHeden

      Actually, the Shasta watershed runoff should not really be that huge.
      As noted earlier, the Pit river drainage is probably at to just slightly above average….plus a lot of the lower elevation snow has already melted and drained into Shasta. That’s my impression, anyway.

      • inclinejj

        Last I heard Shasta was within 10 feet of being 100% full. Couple buddies of mine have been up there fishing this week.

        • Howard Goodman

          Just looked they are living on the edge it’s 6.2 feet from full

      • Hardcort

        I noticed over the last 6 weeks that Lake Tahoe has been ramping up water release. Around March 1 it was steady at 450cfs and mid month or so it rose to 800 ish and this week it’s up to 1,230 cfs

    • inclinejj

      Those massive trout in Lake Almador will be happy!

    • OldSnwSrvyr (Paradise)

      Almanor spills water in many years, they just don’t do it through the spillway. They do it through the outlet at Canyon Dam and through the powerhouse. Any time they take water out of Almanor and they are spilling past the downstream powerhouses it is considered spill. The spillway had never been used because it is 6 feet above the maximum allowable water surface allowed by DSOD. They can move much more water through the PH and outlet than typically inflows for more than 24 hours.

  • inclinejj

    deleted

  • inclinejj
    • CHeden

      I see a Raiders hat is the first chew-toy?
      Good choice.

      • inclinejj

        Dogs name is Raider. Raider dog lV (the 4th)

        My Dad went to Jefferson High in Daly City a couple years behind John Madden. So when he got the Raiders coaching job my dad bought tickets. We even went to 4 games in LA.

        I wish my Dad could have seen them win another Super Bowl. You might have known my Dad when you lived in San Bruno. His shop was in Skycrest for 40 years.

        • roseland67

          inclinejj,

          We had a Siberian Husky named Raider, named after the 1983 Super bowl champs,
          Great hound, 1 blue eye and 1 brown eye

        • CHeden

          Would have had to been pre-1972 when I moved to Pacifica. But, we did hang out a lot up there..especially the coffee shop, where we’d get an order of fries (couldn’t afford anything else). And the counter girl was really friendly. Got all our haircuts up there, too. And bought our toys at the hardware store.

          • inclinejj

            Yep, I knew you would know my Dad he was John the Barber in Skycrest for 40+ years.

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)
    • Thunderstorm

      Actually right on target. Awesome pic!

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Where was that taken? Stunning.

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

    I should plan a move based on this map.

    https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/852931673964646400

    • alanstorm

      Add my location to the 100″ mark.
      Right on the “a” in Coastal

    • Howard Goodman

      The Sierra’s have beat the coastal range that everyone keeps telling me gets more but they don’t have reporting stations and the only one that gets close to me is just south of here at 160.2 and it has the most

  • Cap’n

    Someone on here last weekend, April 9th, said the snowpack would melt out in two weeks under 7,500 ft. Don’t tell that to Soda Springs on Donner Summit at 7,000 ft. Just took these visiting https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d70d92b2d2d711d5f46b2af157c5a10cb1b69b6f13ed452c4648e93e266faafe.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/57846f7ad582e4ba14a66ee0ba9c0b22051c7fd1e1beb311c6f40ffecc287810.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c16dd7a16bcfc144e2d6fe15fabaaa1702706c603e266d77db2d72eabc8139f1.jpg a friend at Serene Lakes. And not to be biased and only report from the crest, Brockway Summit at 7,100 ft which sits in the banana belt is still running snow mobile tours.

    • Charlie B

      This damn drought will never end.

    • Dan weather maniac

      Holy moly that’s at 7k ft?

      • Cap’n

        Soda Springs is listed at 6,768 ft. I think Serene Lakes is 6,900.

    • matthew

      I drove over Mt Rose a couple weeks ago. At the summit where you would normally see the bathrooms/visitor center was nothing but a 20′ pile of snow. If you did not know that there was a building there you would completely miss it. It will be August before you can hike it without snowshoes.

    • inclinejj

      But I saw it on the internet, it has to be true!

      • Tuolumne

        That, and all the false reports of a “superbloom” in Death Valley this year. The Park Service said it wasn’t going to happen (poor rain there) and it didn’t happen, but third parties assumed it would happen due to rain elsewhere and promoted this non-existent event.

  • CHeden

    One down side of yesterday’s hail burst here at my place, I lost at least 75% of my cherries. It was just loaded with fruit two days ago, now only a smattering under the leaves remain. Ah Mother Nature, you do know how to keep things in perspective.
    Sigh.

    • Fairweathercactus

      Plant a cactus and you wont have to be concerned about that.

      • Pfirman

        Yes, i love nopalitos and tunas. Yum.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        I don’t know that many species of cacti would survive the climate of some of these areas due to cold temperatures and winter precip. Of course, they will survive in lower elevations where it is milder, even if they may need to be sheltered from excessive rainfall at times.

        • Tuolumne

          Beavertail can take really cold conditions but probably won’t like being under 10 feet of snow. It’s in the Great Basin mountains and sunny dry spots on the east side of the Sierra.

    • Pfirman

      Bummer. Was just looking at some of my trees. Good fruit set on plums, pluots, dwarf nectarines, and cherries, but nothing on aprium, peacotum, kaweah peach, or double delight nectarine.

      Plus, despite spraying there is some curl on the more susceptible persicas.

      • max

        What type of spray do you use, and for what conditions? In Ojai Valley, and have small quantities of the same fruits.

        • Pfirman

          Sorry, got busy. I spray a dormant oil with copper sulfate mixed in for curl. I mix the CuSO4 stronger than the label says as they have been reducing the level quite a bit over the years.

          The dormant oil can be used alone in summer too, but never use it in hot weather.

          • max

            Thank you!

      • Yolo Hoe

        Interesting. We are looking good with orange, grapefruit, plum and nectarine, but nothing on pluot.

  • Howard Goodman

    I guess you know spring is close when you run into 5 Cartel guys scouting out the area

    • PRCountyNative

      Last year for that likely, good news for the forest.

      • Howard Goodman

        Hope so it’s not always safe out here

        • molbiol

          what were they doing that convinced you they were Cartel related? Just curious. Also very depressed at how things keep getting worse with no hope in sight

          • Howard Goodman

            I live up here , it’s like asking “how do I know that guys a logger” it’s not like I haven’t seen them before , a little while after that I ran into 2 Foresters I know and I said did you see who’s around the corner from my place , they said “those Cartel guys”

          • Howard Goodman

            In the fall up here the Black Helicopter is out almost every day , over the years there have been many big busts up here involving thousands of plants some times 10’s of thousands

          • BRP (Ventura)

            Come on Congress, take it off schedule 1 now! Screw those illegal grows?

          • Howard Goodman

            The illegal grows up here are polluting the ground and the streams they are killing animals , there are a rare endangered animal call a Fisher that’s been reintroduced , there’s a team of Biologist up here keeping track of them , they’ve found some poisoned from the rat poison they put out , years ago the killed a hunter not far from me when he came upon their grow

          • Pfirman

            Peanuts compared to Monsanto.

          • Howard Goodman

            Well at least Monsanto won’t shoot you when your out in the woods

          • molbiol

            Sorry to hear that. Unfortunately I don’t see things getting much better anytime soon..reminds me of the IE

          • max

            There were National Forestry satellite maps, a few years back, that showed Sat data on the pot farms, using infra-red, to distinguish the pot leaf color from the native growth
            I think that the problem was that so many small communities were making over 80% of their $$ from pot, and to bust them all would disrupt their communities. From a relative that does replanting for Forestry Dept.

          • Howard Goodman

            Those communities may make money from the locals that grow it but not the Mexican Cartel

      • Dan weather maniac

        Agreed, the environment will fare much better when the illegal incentive drops.

        • Bombillo1

          Why did this take so long to get done?

  • DelMarSD

    Was in palm Springs the past few days. Driving there, I was impressed by how much snow was on the north facing slopes of the San Jacinto’s, and the south slops of the San Gorgonio’s. Especially considering how little precipitation there has been the past 2 months. But I guess they got a ton of snow in January.

    • inclinejj

      It’s been in the high 80’s or low 90’s in Palm Springs. Toasty for Cochella.

    • Nathan

      I know snow climbers have been doing the snow creek climb in the past few weeks – perfect time/weather for it.

  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

    https://satelliteliaisonblog.files.wordpress.com/2017/04/20170414_vis_anno.gif Insane GOES-16 imagery of severe thunderstorms in Texas that produced PDS tornado warnings

    • It’s like a chunk of sodium dropped in a pond…

      • Pfirman

        Minus the jumping around part.

        • Or the hydrogen fireballs….Oh the fun one can have with several pounds of pure Na….

    • Jim

      Awesome

    • DelMarSD

      Cool.

    • molbiol

      what are those waves emanating from the anvil called?

      • Nate

        They’re gravity waves caused by the overshooting top.

        • molbiol

          thank you. I figured it had to do with latent heat and ventilation effects in the upper atmosphere

    • max

      Take a look, also, at the 2014 season, with tornadoes, convective sequences etc. Amazing tech..

    • Thunderstorm

      Inflow at the bottom and stationary. Like a boiling pot.

    • Bombillo1

      Atmospheric volcano. Convection on display.

    • inclinejj

      At first I thought it was water bubbling up. Reminded me of 1986 when the natural gas line under the Truckee River blew. No Natural Gas in Tahoe for a week.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Good thing they serviced the ac unit in October last year. I think it will be wamer than last summer.

    • DelMarSD

      I’m guessing it will be as well.

    • Bombillo1

      After this cold and rainy winter, I’m guessing we will have hell to pay this summer. Something to do with Emerson’s “compensation” essay.

    • Craig Matthews

      What mountains are those way out there on the skyline?

      • Cap’n

        Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I think it’s looking north from Kirkwood to Desolation and Pyramid Peak.

        • Craig Matthews

          That’s what it looks like. Beautiful shot.

        • It’s looking from Iron Mountain Ski Resort, North to Desolation and pyramid peak. Got some shots with my real cameras I need to develop and post, this was a cellphone quickie

    • Crouching Dallas

      *want*

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      Nice shot!

  • Charlie B

    What follows is mostly true, except for those parts that aren’t.
    I have a case where my client was sued on the theory that he did not disclose certain defects in a house that he sold in Fallon, Nv. A few days ago I went out to see the house and check on things. The house was located at the end of a dirt driveway off a dirt road off a back alley on a side street.
    I was met by the new owner, who claimed that my client hadn’t disclosed the terrible mice problem in the house. Mice were the least of his problems, but I digress.
    He greeted me at the door and had a knife in his hand. “You want to see them” he sneered, “i’ll show you!.” Somewhat dubious, I followed him into the kitchen. The place was in shambles; mice traps everywhere, at least 100 of them, and he used really foul cheese. There was also plastic over everything; the chairs, the sofa, kitchen cabinets, the dishwasher and, I think, the dog.
    He stood in the middle of the kitchen with knife in hand, and I expected him to say: “Here’s Johnny!” Then I noticed the irrigation ditch in the back yard. It was running full. Here was my opportunity to divert his attention.
    “My, that water is really high”I ventured. He peered out the window, which was a good sign.
    “Yeah, free allocation. Costs nothing, good for the fields.”
    My mind whirled. “Been pretty lean out here, has it?”
    “Yeah, you can say that. Want some coffee?” I accepted.
    “How bad was it” I asked, hoping to keep him engaged.
    “I’ll tell you…two years ago we got 20% and last year 65% and that was the so called El Noninino, don’t you know.”
    The coffee was surprisingly good. A bit smokey and a hint of vanilla and quite robust. But I digress.
    “I’m a bit worried” he said. “We been getting water for months and it keeps coming. They say Lake Lahontan was 1% full last fall and now it’s 90% and they keep dumping water.”
    “Yup, I replied. “And did you know the Carson River that feeds Lahontan has no storage capacity and when all that snow melts it’s just going to flow right down here, barely stopping to take a leak?”
    “No kidding?” He said, knife now at his side.
    “No kidding, and when that happens a few mice will be the least of your problems.”

    • Bombillo1

      The mice were displaced from the surrounding fields. They are his early warning system.

      • inclinejj

        2011 we had frozen ants in the fridge and freezer door jam. The few times we have had ants in the house we had very wet winters.

      • Tuolumne

        Hey, the snakes will eat the mice…

    • inclinejj

      Did you handle cases on the Fallon irrigation canal breach a couple years ago?

      • Charlie B

        Yes. The Fernley Flood. January 5, 2008. Flooded 600+ houses. The irrigation district, TCID, operates the Truckee Canal which transports water from the Truckee River at Derby Dam to Lake Lahontan. It was built in the early 1900’s and had a history of breaching every 10 years or so. Capacity is about 1000 cfs. On the morning of Jan 5 a heavy rainstorm sent a slug of water down the Truckee River. TCID managers saw it coming and remotely opened the Derby gates. The flows into the canal went from 100 cfs to 800 cfs in a few hours. The canal hadn’t been that full in months. There were rodent holes and behold, the canal gave way. Most of the evidence of what actually happened was washed away, of course. At the end of the case TCID got hammered and that is why it no longer owns the top few feet of Donner Lake. I had Lyon County and we escaped after 3 years. The canal won’t breach again, or probably won’t, because it can’t be operated over 350 cfs per court order.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Pesky Santa Anas in the SMV today. It’s really bringing the ants inside.

  • Howard Goodman
    • Slick

      cool pic

    • Charlie B

      I am glad that pic is not on a news feed from North Korea.

      • Pfirman

        Don’t you mean in N. Korea? Though who knows why they would pick south of Chico.

        • Charlie B

          Chico is a nuclear free zone.

          • Pfirman

            Back in the seventies, yes. Long story, but sounds like you know it.
            Now Davis, yes, you are up to date last I heard.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    A lot of discussion yesterday about the snowmelt and what it could do in NV. In 83 a rapid snowmelt caused the Slide Mountain mudslide that rolled all the way into the Washoe Valley.

    “The year Slide Mountain lived up to its name was a particularly heavy winter, followed by a hot Memorial Day weekend, reports from that day said.

    The snowpack was 200 percent of average due to a powerful El Niño that year, reports said. The hot weekend sent all of that snow down the mountain where it collided with Upper and Lower Price lakes and then washed down the rest of the mountain to Highway 395.”
    http://www.nevadaappeal.com/news/local/first-memorial-for-1983-mudslide-victim-survivors/
    http://www.rgj.com/picture-gallery/news/2015/05/22/photos-slide-mountain-disaster-memorial-day-1983/27773651/

    • Charlie B

      That was also the year of the big slide on Highway 50 near Kyburz. Closed the highway for 76 days.

  • Shane Ritter

    So much for the summer preview. Operational and ensembles now showing next week’s high pressure only hangs around a few days and not nearly as intense, the ensembles both have the trough staying near the coast now. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/95b17abc5b480e57867d1482e283359f85733fc74c0bc43b413af3d8625cf241.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4cd092917df3b48efbcdb2ac2e6c6cc908b02b169a79bcf6bfe6a4546afad096.png they all bring in storms by the 25th. It’s still far out there, but after this winter, high pressure seems less likely the troughs.

    • AlTahoe

      Yeah I just saw that as well. The bigger storm it shows is just inside of the 240 hour mark which gives it a little bit more probability of verifying as well. I was really hoping for a prolonged warm period but it looks like we will have to wait for it in May now.

      • Shane Ritter

        And the models have do everything this alot this winter, showing a ridge 10 days out, then slowly shrinking the length of time the ridge is around. I bet we get 4-6 days of good weather, before a 10 day unsettled period. I bet we will see no real spring, and a jump straight to summer in late may or early June

        • AlTahoe

          Yep I agree.

        • Thunderstorm

          Yep spring to be windy and cool with inside sliders starting late April to early June.

          • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

            I see this scenario as well. Cut off lows hanging off the coast with heavy stratus influence.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            How about a couple of these cutoff lows bringing some shower activity to Socal?

    • Bombillo1

      This is outrageous. Every time the 240 hour shows a warm dry spell coming it subsequently gets whittled down and we wind up with rain on the day in question. Bill Shakespeare thinks this is funny.

      • Howard Goodman

        Well at least it’s nice today before more rain tonite and most of the rest of the week , an it seems to be lets go see Howard day , I’ve had a steady stream of visitors most of the day

    • I’m still seeing a major heatwave in the 8-12/13 day range, which has been pretty consistent in the models for several days: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b2b97f123f9d2aff0961182f4aa6a15a5b6f2ad594d60eb34017267f89c5d774.gif

      • Phil(ontario)

        That explains why I’m projected to have a high of 96* next sat and sun.

        • Dan weather maniac

          It seems like hot stretch in April every year is pretty common. I recall last year it being around 90 in orinda for a couple days, earlier in April, which is much above normal.

          • Tuolumne

            That magnitude of heat wave is not unusual at all for April in the Bay Area, away from the ocean, as long as it’s not prolonged. I always buy some hot-weather goodies like sherbet and popsicles for the freezer by mid-April or so, so I’m good and ready for a little heat wave in late April or early May.

            If you wait too late in spring the crowds can beat you to it at the store when the heat finally hits, leaving slim pickings in the freezer case. At that point in the year they stores often aren’t yet in the habit of having backup stock on hand for these kinds of summer foods.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            Hot stretches in April are more common in Socal during years in which the rainy season ends around mid-March or earlier. Even during wetter springs, we can still have a hot stretch or two but are less common and less frequent than those years with dry springs and an early end to the rainfall season.

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      Ya 2-3 days of above average temps is hardly a “heatwave”. I think we are in that seasonal transition stage as well when anything past 120h is up in the air.

      I’m hoping for a cool late spring…

    • jstrahl

      Storms by the 25th? I don’t see that in the GFS 12Z run.

  • DelMarSD
    • Dan the Weatherman

      That was back in the day we actually got decent rain in March and April, which seems impossible anymore for some reason.

  • HighWater
    • DelMarSD

      Perhaps an “averaged-sized” El Nino (not a monster El Nino) will mean better prospects for another above-average year of rainfall for the state.

      • Chris

        I think it mostly has to do with the warm bulge of water in South America.
        Last year’s El Niño didn’t feature that.

  • happ [Los Angeles]
    • Cap’n

      That’s why everyone moves there.

  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)
    • Yolo Hoe

      Well done, glad you’re there — must be awesome today

  • molbiol

    I agree with NWS Los Angeles- the GFS has not performed well in Socal the past couple months. Also, I am sick of this damn wind in Lancaster but since it is April there is not much that can be done. At least next weekend will be warm:

    ” After the Monday front, WSW flow sets up over the area and persists
    into Tuesday. Embedded moisture and weak shortwaves embedded in this
    flow will bring a chc of rain to the area through the period. The
    NAM is now the wettest mdl and the EC remains the driest the GFS is
    now in the middle. Doubt that last night`s solutions will resemble
    the current ones due to the nature of forecasting this scenario.
    Will favor the drier EC soln as it has exhibited more run to run
    consistency and also its programmers spend more time with the
    moisture initialization parameters. .. Fairly vigorous north flow will set up after the trof passes and
    it looks pretty likely that a clutch of wind advisories will be
    needed for the mtns, vlys, SBA south coast and the Antelope Vly. ..Its really too far off to totally trust the mdls but at this
    moment both the EC and the GFS are forecast a very warm weekend
    next 22nd and 23rd. “

  • Crouching Dallas
    • Pfirman

      It’s always snowing somewhere, right?

    • Nate

      Lmao nice

  • Craig Matthews

    Here’s the 12zNAM3km for tomorrow’s system. This run keeps the front held together for areas south of the Bay area down to Pt Conception. Lotta people sick of the rain in Norcal, but areas of south Monterey Co and SLO county could surely use some more… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/26805af7b60a5dae32d226a2f84e72973c4c790d07b088d1b3bc7a08131b25d5.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/33fc0045da85babbd721aa5396989d2a7822319951148b17db02e57ec8909136.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3688fd508a1bdac466ddb96dd01c6433432e2936343e7390d8e5d1455a449d95.png

    • TheNothing

      Sick of the rain, Huh?

    • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

      I want more rain. Keep things green and lush as long as possible.

      • Chris

        Grass will turn brown eventually no matter what.
        Once they are done seeding, they will die.

        • Tuolumne

          True for annual grasses which die after seeding. OTOH, a wet and cool spring can delay this death until June in some cases. Perennial grasses work on a different cycle but they no longer are a major factor in most of California’s low-elevation grasslands.

    • BeerguyOE

      the hills are brown already

      • Tuolumne

        Depends where you are.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I still can’t believe how the spigot just shut off down here in Socal at the beginning of March, and yet you guys in Norcal have been getting rain what seems like every other day or so.

  • alanstorm
  • Rainmaker (San Jose)
  • molbiol

    Great, The cottonwoods here in Lancaster are starting to ejaculate all over the place. It looks like it is snowing 🙁

    • alanstorm

      Alittle premature if u ask me.

  • alanstorm

    Another 2″ silly slathering slated for my soggy county from tomorrow’s storm.
    Could it be the a final one before
    Heat Wave City?
    Sorry SoCal
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e6d1998a585919bd2013e3a175da708518bd912688e02fe95a7304659810c0b2.png

    • I’m honestly ready to hit the beach up soon. Let’s bring summer already.

      • alanstorm

        Yep. Another seriously sloppy Sunday.
        Seems like it’s wet & windy every weekend.

    • Dan weather maniac

      The Sierra has really been slurping it up as well, even the southern part per you map. I wish the Bay Area would get a bit more in this round but then again the ground is still pretty wet on the northern hillsides ( my exposure) and in general.

      I still have yet to water this year and thinking it’ll stay that way till may ( after this supposed heat wave kicks in) . That is really good for the east bay.

      • alanstorm

        Despite being alittle sick of soggy & grey, it’s all good.
        Can’t imagine a better scenario then what we’ve had:
        Record rains but no major floods.
        Record snow & it’s still there in April.

        • Dan weather maniac

          Ya considering all the glorious water from the sky this year and our aged infrastructure this great state had a bit of golden luck this year in dodging a catastrophe.

          Hopefully a wake up call to invest in our water infrastructure.

  • Howard Goodman

    I’ve been talking about the extraordinary amount of rain this area has gotten and the damage it’s done , today some friends were up here riding their dirtbikes and ran into to some more erosion https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/52e10fcff76f7311c63bbfda85a8dba0f27a5d9b9f7d5405a08ee7c4c19c4b59.jpg

    • Yolo Hoe

      The power of of water; great shot

  • Shane Ritter

    The 18z has the heat wave lasting 4/22-4/25, before high pressure weakens and cooler Temps move in. I want spring! But man, 4 days is not enough!

  • inclinejj

    Bids for repairing Oroville dam, higher than expected. Winning bid to be announced Monday.

    http://sacb.ee/9w2G

    • DelMarSD

      Wow.

    • alanstorm

      Probably will end up being double that when all is said & done, ala Bay Bridge

      • DelMarSD

        That’s the govt. for you.

        • inclinejj

          Scariest words you can ever hear. Hello, we are from your government and here to help.

          • DelMarSD

            Yep.

          • cthenn

            Haha you guys are so clueless. If you only knew how “great” these private contractors really are… Public agencies are where they know how to get PAID.

      • inclinejj

        The oldest trick taught in construction 101. Bid high when the customer is desperate.

        • Harpo (Chico)

          Bid high and then explain later why the bottom line is going to be so much higher than the bid.

          • inclinejj

            Contractor says. inflation everything is costing more.

            Customer says. But we have no inflation.

            Contractor says. Cost over runs.

            Customer says. Mr Banker I’m out of money.

            Contractor says. Pay me or we walk.

            Customers wife says. Honey it’s the bankruptcy attorney line 1.

        • I don’t think DWR factored the “Can you rebuild our spillway for us by yesterday?” into their estimate.

          • inclinejj

            They wanted it fully operational, the main spillway and emergency by November 1st.

            I would say they are pretty desperate. Dire Straits.

    • I’ll start taking bets!

  • happ [Los Angeles]
  • Stopdrinkingthekoolaid

    Geoengineering aka Chemtrails Tell All Book

  • Stopdrinkingthekoolaid
  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

    Daniel is possible to IP ban someone like this guy who continues making new accounts to talk about fake science

  • Dan the Weatherman

    deleted

  • Yolo Hoe

    Meanwhile, a few miles due west and then south of Davis, looking east across a lush pasture and a field of flourishing https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f1630b24da9039510211f417da22a68b8f1c8ab864d397933a6e9bf04b6f66b1.jpg wheat, respectively, one can see unambiguously the super dense snowpack despite the high level clouds https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3f1043916eb6afba97ced144060ef2070c1511a63ee18f6b6f9b58e636b91439.jpg already moving in ahead of the next system.

    What a glorious and desperately needed season it has been; hallelujah indeed!!

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    can someone explain how these lines work? this picture is off tropical shitbits which is often unreliable and wrong, but the high pressure systems, the lines and sizes I’m confused about. This still is at april 22nd during the suppose of warm up. They look to be far off the coast so not much of a warm up? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/59e7da54de860ea621fba1175bb5ae8f0c693ea0a4a42ed8dfe5b18d28a67e2b.png

    • Looks like a warm up to me….look at the DM lines.

    • sezwhom

      Tropical Tidbits is not unreliable or wrong. They don’t run the models, they just allow you to access them. Blame the model, not TT. What you’re seeing a surface map. Lines of equal pressure in gray with thickness in dashed red. So a 1025 mb surface (30.27″) with ridge axis building into NorCal. Thickness is between 564 and 570. Need to see 850 mb for temp analysis to be honest. If this projection is correct, you’re looking at high temps next Saturday around 76 to 78 degrees for say Livermore and East San Jose. It’s a perfectly understandable map. What we don’t know is if it’ll be correct.

  • Cap’n
  • Cap’n
  • sezwhom

    It does look like, after Thursday, we’ll see sunny and warmer weather going into next weekend. What nobody is saying…yet…is that it probably won’t last long. Say hello to the ECMWF out 240 on the 25th. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/69146e758e518dfa11260630a7c891a8d10a913c3d75ab23be391637080df876.png

  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

    Found a crazy picture of a waterspout over Lake Tahoe, near Emerald Bay at 9 PM, July 10, 2015 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/288563d62e78ee8f6e47d6191d60e984cc76f09f50ce6f61945a4c0b0a882338.png

    • AlTahoe

      That was the summer where we had an extraordinary amount of thunderstorms

      • Dan the Weatherman

        The words “wet summer” here in Orange County rarely apply, but summer 2015 was just that, and it was the wettest summer I can ever remember.

  • matthew

    For the Truckee/Tahoe gang – anyone seen any deer yet this year? I live near the migration corridor for the Truckee-Loyalton herd and normally expect to see them doing their march through the neighborhood in the first week of April. Have not seen a single one yet.

    • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

      I saw a fox, but not a deer with a rabbit in its mouth yesterday, turning into Northstar.

      • matthew

        Lots of fox, coyote, bobcat, etc. all winter. But not even deer poop on my property yet. I usually expect to see a few in late-March and then the masses arrive in early April.

        • Bombillo1

          The deer are the most mobil of all the critters and with winter refusing to let go your observations are not surprising. Went to Callahan (Scott Valley) yesterday and saw heards of 10 to 14 in several places. Roughly 3,000′ elevation. 5,000′ up there still has fair snow.

    • Howard Goodman

      The Deer are probably in the lower elevations , I’m at 4 K see them all the time

      • matthew

        Yes, I get that. They migrate to the lower elevations in the fall and return our way in the spring. I had 11 of them camping in my yard for a week last April. They are late on their return.

      • Howard Goodman

        There are large Herds of Deer that come though here ,I’ll see there trails out in the forest looks like hundreds of them came though and then there’s the regulars that stay around all the time

        • Pfirman

          Deer Creek area lives up to its name.

    • Cap’n

      Saw a few in Verdi the other day, nothing in Truckee yet. The ones that hang out in Negro Canyon off the exit by our house will have quite awhile to wait as it’s buried in feet of snow still. I’d imagine you’ll see some soon in your area as the melt is on. It’s like a transcontinental deer highway where you live. I’ve thought about getting one of those deer whistles you attach to your car for my wife’s Reno commute, they sell them at Cabellas. Won’t be long til the bloodbath begins on the 80.

    • Tuolumne

      In some locations there may have been more winter kill than usual. In other cases the deer may have been forced out of their usual locations for this time of the year, disrupting their usual movement patterns.

    • AlTahoe

      Now that you mention it I don’t think I have ever seen a deer in South Lake Tahoe? Just bears and coyotes

  • Bombillo1
  • ben

    Might be moving into 4th place today forcast calling for up to half an inch. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/621ab2dbbcfda680855c81d763e7c56ae0b6eb140c7f4938c21a39a16ad9428a.jpg

    • Howard Goodman

      So much for the North coast getting all this rain , during the drought years it rained more than that here

      • Tuolumne

        Eureka is one of the driest spots on the north coast. Crescent City to the north and Honeydew to the south get far more rain.

        • Bombillo1

          In addition, their evaporative loss is a fraction of points inland. Seldom over 75 degrees, on the hottest days of summer.

          • alanstorm

            Lived & worked there thru a good portion of the 80’s. Very depressing- damp, foggy for weeks at a time during summer. Drive 15 minutes to inland & blue skies with 80’s & 90’s.
            Add to that at the time the rotten egg smell of the pulp Mill. I had colds & bronchitis once a month. Family still up there- they’re fighting colds constantly. “Humboldt Crud”.
            It’s that huge Bay.
            Eureka, Ferndale, & Crecent City: fine places if you don’t mind a grey & dismal existence

          • Pfirman

            Took the words right out of my mouth. Plus my first wife lives there, heh.

          • Tuolumne

            I wonder if any out-of-state students arrive at Humboldt State expecting palm trees and sunshine in “sunny California”?

          • Tuolumne

            Humid, too. Old-timers have moss instead of beards.

      • alanstorm

        (Tuolumne covered this below)
        I hate that Eureka is used as a rainfall spot representing the North Coast.
        That’s like saying “the Bay Area is really cold all summer- look at those temps for San Francisco in August” while it’s 102° in Concord.
        Pretty much ANYWHERE else around there gets 50% or more annually.

        • weathergeek100

          Yup. Eureka is slightly rain shadowed by the hills to the south. The coastline up there is more northwest-facing compared to most of the CA coast that’s SW facing.

  • tomocean

    Back in California after a trip to Lake Powell (Foul) in the Arizona desert. Drove across Nevada on the way down and then up through Bishop along 395 on the way back. Really nice desert bloom in Arizona. The amount of snow in the Eastern Sierra is truly remarkable. Lots of photos/video from the trip. Here are some of the Eastern Sierra Nevada. Also caught a nice sun halo https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f96e2e71c644408ca6572d69bdaf44a493dc46078c2436a4ddce0feda0e3f181.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c1a401d0c55c1267f0815e760e2baf9a8968a4abb0666f8bf3fd079d7b0fffdc.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6773d346d4b11c95208719871e717d937b7fd15989d4dd94db89d5a76805d5fe.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/745088b984c7ccdf7f685c48f836079a606285fa9bf6903bc04ec95810cf041e.jpg

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

    Is radar way overestimating the rain. Fair amount of yellow.

    • Patrick from Stockton

      For what it’s worth it’s raining large drops but very lightly right now here in Stockton

    • Chris

      And red offshore!
      Radar shows size of drops, not concentration.
      I just drive through Sacramento. Radar was orange with big fat drops pounding the windshield, but barely a puddle.

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

        Interesting. You would think there would be a push for radar ech that can do both.

        • Chris

          That’s what the next radar needs.

    • alanstorm

      Radar showing nothing for Ukiah/Willits, yet it’s been dark, windy & wet all day. MISERABLE!
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f325bfeef6c7cd860387640d32a8901af1b0bcf1e59d8a72649a1ec2e065b0c1.jpg

      • Pfirman

        I hope you are harvesting and drying the mushrooms.

        • alanstorm

          When the sun finally DOES come out, (5 days from now??)
          there will be an unprecedented explosion of grass growth, insect apocalypse, & unrealistic human enthusiasm akin to pure cocaine.
          “MY GOD WHAT A WONDERFUL PLACE I LIVE!!!”

          • Yolo Hoe

            It’s why we keep coming back; we’re all prey to the dealer — just one more line; the calm/green before/after the storm — it seems NorCal weather has interesting parallels.

    • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

      Now the radar is matching what happening on the ground. At least in my area. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e0a196ba7cee59c05bcbc131ba29f3ca9b97b7f5e20795c4d1da6b5a77d2237f.png

      • Patrick from Stockton

        yeah, me too. Raining steady now and ground is all wet. There is a small green patch of radar over us but what looks like is coming could be very interesting…

  • Crouching Dallas

    The Central Sierra just keeps hitting. My students are on break this week, so might have to make a quick trip up to Mammoth for some spring cement.

    On a related note, guessing from this WPC chart that the ECMWF has trended a bit towards the wetter GFS for the next few days’ shortwave party. Wouldn’t surprise me, as the GFS has been locked on to this solution for quite a while now, but it’d be great to get some confirmation.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/472f844637eb3a00fd4c6dc8a783f86f0ff4b2dbdf29cc0e5be6e1a4c915c050.gif

    • Pfirman

      But Daniel keeps saying dry and warm. Time will tell.

      • alanstorm

        Low temp forecast for Thursday here is a balmy 37°

        • Pfirman

          I think balmy also means crazy.

  • Stefan Myslicki

    Had some premoistening of the lower levels around Los Gatos due to a passing small shower but the radar to the west looks a lot farther south and a lot more intense then has been being predicted. FWIW, the game in Oakland has already been declared a rainout due to heavy storms forecasted to start prior to game time but the Giants game in SF is still showing as possible

  • Charlie B

    Two of our boys went up to our Graeagle place last week to install some steam milled pine flooring. Really pretty stuff but very labor intensive. Anyway, they got there Monday and it was misting with a bit of light rain. Same for Tuesday. Tuesday night it started to rain, and continued more or less non stop thru Friday night, punctuated by 6″ of heavy wet snow Thursday night.
    I told them to log the weather, but the little weather station I built last fall was crushed and obliterated by the winter’s snow. “It never snows any more in Graeagle” everyone said. Until this year. By everyone’s account, Graeagle received 10-12′ of snow and 75 or so inches of rain. That’s probably 200% of average.
    This is in the Middle Fork Feather watershed. The Middle Fork is, for lack of a better word, flooding. There are stranded trees everywhere, and some along the banks have seen their roots undermined and are falling into the water. The little creek behind our place is flooding and flowing over the little bridge we built over it last fall. (It is still intact; evidence of our superior engineering engineering skills. Oroville, are you listening? Are bids closed?)
    The spring melt hasn’t started………….

    • Pfirman

      Must be superior when you engineer the engineering.

    • inclinejj

      Nice. Can you post a couple photos of your flooring. I’m starting a remodel on our place in Incline in June.

    • Yolo Hoe

      I recall similar refrains on this board that ‘it doesn’t snow in Truckee anymore’. The more I read about Sierra weather history, the more I see repeating cycles of boom/bust. It seems the relatively infrequent big years + somewhat more frequent big blizzards (even in ‘bust’ years) dominate our memories and expectations because they really are the stuff of legends. Then when we don’t get that adrenaline spike for a few years, it seems like it will never happen again (that’s how I felt after arriving here in 2013). Until it does. Mark McGloughlin in his writing claims that old timers in Tahoe during the late 1800’s were warning of climate change that meant no more Big years like used to happen in the 1860s and before. So I now go forward feeling confident we’ll still get the legendary storms and seasons from time to time, and will try not to panic during dry years.

      That said, climate change IS happening and accelerating, and there’s an unfortunate cornucopia of detrimental effects for us TO panic about beyond a gradually rising snow line (which I realize has it’s own troubling implications for our environment).

      Here’s to everyone doing the best they can to getting out and enjoying the extraordinary flowers, waterfalls, forests and snowpack this summer. We don’t know when it will happen again; only that it will, thankfully, happen again. Easter musings, hope renewal, and all that good stuff.

  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)
  • Thor

    I must say…and so I am on the internet :)… After all of our relatively warm ARs and SW flows this season, its a pretty cold storm. Its 50 degrees, gusty winds with a cold, drivin’ rain. Went to the farmers market and came away wet and cold. Pretty raw for Easter.

    • Pfirman

      Where are you?

      • Thor

        San Rafael

  • Patrick from Stockton

    It’s pouring rain here right now. At last a good storm with good dynamics for the valley. Haven’t seen this since February 🙂

    • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

      You are right, it seems the dynamics are there. Really wish I understood what is required for dynamics. This storm is being called weak, yet so called strong storms this year have packed less dynamics. I am thinking it’s really the cold air that we need to get more rain in the valleys.

  • Cap’n
  • Tazmanian

    thursday storm may be the last rain of april and may be the last of the season starting of may it looks like we start are dry season

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      San Francisco averages 0.70 in May. Hopefully everyone gets a few more showers at least!

  • jstrahl

    .2 inches so far today in central Berkeley, mostly in the 12:30-3PM frame, very light rain/spray over the last hour. April total now 3.02 inches, season total 39.80 inches.