Break in storms comes to end; Northern California closes in on record wet season

Filed in Uncategorized by on March 18, 2017 2,491 Comments

Multi-week break in active storm pattern allows water to recede

A persistent trough along the West Coast–associated with wet conditions in California–has co-occurred with a persistent upstream ridge over the Aleutians. (NCEP via ESRL)

2016-2017 turned out to be quite the winter across California (especially in the northern half of the state). A relentless series of storms–driven by persistent troughing and an associated active jet stream along the West Coast–brought numerous atmospheric rivers and associated heavy precipitation to much of the state since November. Notably, there was in fact a broad and highly persistent downstream ridge centered over the Aleutian Islands for much of the winter. This conspicuous feature does bear some resemblance to the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge which plagued California in recent drought years, though clearly its position this winter was far enough west to have vastly different effects in the Golden State. I will eventually have a more comprehensive post focused on the possible causes of California’s reversal in fortune this year, along with some thoughts regarding why such an anomalously wet winter was essentially unanticipated.

All of California has been wetter than average this winter; most of Northern California has experienced record wet conditions. (WRCC)

On average, California has experienced near to above-average temperatures this winter, despite consistent precipitation. (WRCC)

Interestingly, none of the individual storms so far this season have been particularly destructive by California’s historical standards. Instead, most of the widespread flooding, mudslides, and other infrastructure disruptions that have occurred stemmed primarily from the cumulative effect of unusually frequent moderate to strong storm events. It has been previously noted that California’s most dangerous flood events do not necessarily occur during California’s wettest winters, although it’s not totally clear whether that’s just a matter of historical luck. What is pretty clear, though, is that this year’s extreme wetness on the seasonal scale has pushed parts of California’s aging water infrastructure to the brink–and had even a single additional warm, wet atmospheric river come ashore during the peak of winter, the overall flood situation might have been considerably more serious.

Fortunately, most of California did receive a substantial break from the wet weather over the past couple of weeks, with mostly dry and warm conditions nearly statewide so far in March. That dry pattern, however, is rapidly coming to an end (as I discuss further below).

 

 

 

Yes, California really is closing in on wettest Water Year on record

Now that we’re more than 2/3 of the way through California’s wet season, it’s pretty clear that much of the state has experienced its wettest 3-6 month period on record. Virtually every corner of the state is above average to date, though anomalies have been much more impressive in the north. The Northern Sierra watersheds are currently sitting at just above 200% of average precipitation for the season to date–a rather extraordinary statistic. If California receives at least average precipitation for the rest of the season, 2016-2017 would become the state’s wettest Water Year on record.

Overall, California’s year-to-date precipitation is nearly the wettest on record. (UCSD)

Snowpack in California’s mountains is also well above average and the highest since the very wet/snowy winter of 2010-2011. What is striking, however, is how much Sierra snow water equivalent has lagged overall precipitation. For example, Northern Sierra snow water equivalent is currently 145% of average (vs 202% of average for overall precipitation). This effect has been particularly pronounced at middle-elevation regions where wintertime temperatures are more “marginal” for frozen precipitation than at colder, higher elevations. While this winter has certainly been colder than recent (record warm) ones, conditions have still been near to above average across most of the state–and more importantly, have been considerably warmer than during most of California’s historically wet winters.

 

Substantial late-season storminess to return; Central Valley thunderstorms likely

Model ensemble forecasts suggest a high likelihood of moderate to heavy precipitation over Norcal next 10d, with light to moderate amounts across SoCal. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

California’s temporary reprieve from wet conditions is rapidly coming to a close. A series of storms will bring renewed precipitation to most of the state over the next few days, and accumulations could be pretty impressive for mid-March. Northern California is expected to receive the lion’s share of precipitation from this series of storms, but Southern California will definitely still see some rainfall (and perhaps some heavier stuff, depending on how the details work out). Several of these storms will have a respectable moisture tap, and heavy precipitation may occur in the same orographically favored areas that have already seen a tremendous amount of rain this winter. While none of these storms looks especially strong at the moment, soils are still saturated and rivers running high across the northern half of the state. Thus, there will probably be some renewed flooding concerns at some point over the next 10 days, especially since any rainfall will combine with the early snowmelt pulse that has already begun this year. Also, since these storms will be relatively slow moving and will likely contain substantial moisture, there is the potential for precipitation accumulations to end up somewhat higher than are currently anticipated.

 

The upcoming storms will also be associated with cold air aloft during at least a portion of the event, and with the increasingly strong March sun angle atmospheric instability will be elevated across much of the state. Thus, occasional thunderstorms are a good bet across favored areas (especially the Central Valley and perhaps parts of the South Coast). Some locally strong to severe thunderstorms will probably occur at some point over the next 10 days in the Central Valley (as often happens in March), but pinpointing the most active days is difficult at the moment. Needless to say…an active late winter/early spring weather pattern will likely be in place for at least the next 10-12 days, and perhaps beyond.

Tags: , ,

  • Beautiful bounty of lenticulars behind Heavenly over Carson and Reno:
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/22a2dbaec9e98db63192191da75126bcd4c6caf0bd25237cc9f3cf0c43cdbf75.jpg

  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

    Since I joined this discussion on January 8, 2017 I had 15.62 inches and it has rained 21.48 inches since then which puts us at 37.1 inches of record rain, hope that you can tell you a little bit about this Winter!

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      It says to me that we caught the wave, sank the putt, kept a promise, and danced at least one time in the rain. Because what we do for the sheer joy of it, binds us closer to the Lord of the Rain.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Warm afternoon [84°] and ending March w/ above normal temps and hardly any rainfall in SoCal this month.

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    A bit of rain coming through as forecast. That will be it for March. We’ll be below average for precip and snow. It’s 47 outside, and has been at that temp since midnight.

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

    Unexpected light rain in San Jose. Much of it is not showing up on radar as it’s been raining/heavily misting for an hour with no green reaching my area yet.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/03b56f054e1bf59ae7996ac010d50c7f4cdf34342e2dbc058caec44ed00e1981.png

    • I think there was a bigger event over you a couple hours ago that is hitting the Sierra now

    • davdorr

      Only a trace at my house overnight in South San Jose. The down spouts were dry and the gauge didn’t record a thing.

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

        It was hit and miss. When I got to work near Levis Stadium, the ground was dry. Ended up with 0.03 at home.

  • CHeden

    A bit of a surprise T’storm in my area overnight, as nocturnal, high based convection fired up around 2 a.m. SE of Redding, but has since moved out. No reports of any major precip from surface obs. While I saw several flashes, no thunder or any rain. This area of disturbed air is now well SE of me, and would not be surprised to hear of some thunder in the Cent. Sierra.
    Looking forward to a nice, but breezy weekend, with more light rain possible late Sunday into Monday.
    As I mentioned in my last post, these two systems will act more as table-setters for next week, than rain producers. ATTM, the GFS continues to waffle on the the evolution of LP in the GoA and how far south the southern part of the trough will sag. Given the overall trend this Winter of the Bay Area/Cent Coast/Cent Sierra being in the cross-hairs, I expect this next setup will follow a similar trend, with the trough possibly stalling out over these areas mostly during April wk2.
    Should know a lot more after the Sun/Mon system pushes through in regards to what to expect later in the week.

  • Charlie B

    It is snowing, and collecting, in Reno. It was close to 70 yesterday.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      sounds like what use to be the typical Spring Sierra storm. Good to hear!

      • Charlie B

        Yup. I spent many a cold spring day/evening at high school baseball games and track meets over the years. Youth sports parents (you know the type…baseball cap, goatee, sunglasses, arms crossed…thinking “my kid is better than other kids”) care less that it is snowing and you can’t see the lines on the field. The show must go on. Scouts might be passing by and maybe, just maybe, little Billy will get noticed.

        • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

          ha you took it in a totally different direction. I was thinking of the 70 degree day when Home Depot’s garden dept is packed with excited gardeners envisioning their yards filled with colorful blooms. Only to wake up the next day looking outside to see things white and those fresh flowers wilted and collapsed by the weight of the snow.

          • gray whale

            people bragging about how early they got their tomatoes in and you’re like “um, it’s still March dudes”

        • inclinejj

          Don’t plant veggies when there is snow on Peavine!

          You have to live in or near Reno to understand that.

    • AlTahoe

      Driving to Incline from South shore this morning, it was sunny and dry at Zephyr cove. Get towards Sand Harbor and there is a wall of black in front of me. 5 seconds later it is a whiteout and the roads are covered in snow. I love these dynamic slider systems. Total whiteout in spots coming into Incline.

    • matthew

      64 and bicycling up here yesterday. Heavy rain overnight and 2″ of snow on the ground this morning. And the warmup starts again this afternoon.

      • matthew

        Wow. Just went from sunny to 50 foot visibility in about 30 seconds.

        • AlTahoe

          Same here. So far this morning has gone sunny, whiteout, sunny, whiteout.

  • alanstorm

    Today’s 12z: next weekend’s cold front looks to be roped-out & hanging around DelNorte Co/Oregon as per Craig M’s observation
    I think the 149% of average snowpack should be safe for now…… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3af1bc218328b6f93bca0b78f05d0ed3da8ca6846ba3569ad8e4fca084779ffa.jpg

  • HighWater

    Just imagine the carbon footprint Al Gore could have eliminated by him just practicing what he preaches.

    Oops! People like AL Gore only want us to pedal a bike to work. AL Gore never leaves home without his Boeing 737.

    The Hypocrisy is EMBARRASSING

    • HighWater

      The Inconvenient truth does not apply to the Great Al Gore

    • matthew

      Bad hangover this morning?

    • Admode (Susanville)

      I have always wished that Gore wasn’t the one who led the charge on this subject. I believe a lot of partisans do not take the time to do their own research simply because he was the one to lead the charge.

  • mattzweck

    another windy day here high desert Lancaster area. have a high wind warning until 3am Friday gust up to 65mph.

  • matthew

    The wife just got home from Northstar. She left when they closed Backside due to lightning strikes…

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      looks like a mess, 80 has been closed in spots due to trucks jackknifed and a 15 car pile up somewhere around the summit.

      • matthew

        And now the sun is out again in the shire…

    • Craig Matthews

      Wow, thundersnow? Yeah not to safe to be on the mtn with those conditions, as each skier would be like a lightning rod up top….Seams like ever since Jim Cantore visited the Sierra we’ve been hearing more thundersnow reports.

      • matthew

        I have not heard anything on this side of town (~6 miles away, as the crow flies). But she is home and said that they shut it down.

        • Craig Matthews

          Are you still getting snow up there? Looks like a couple inches fell and still low visibility, in viewing through the web cams near the passes and resorts up by you..

          • matthew

            Off and on. The sun is now out for the second time today. Earlier this morning it went from sunny to near-whiteout in just a couple of minutes.

            Don’t like the weather? Wait a few minutes…

        • They will shut it down even if lightning is 50-75 miles away, lifts are ‘lectricity magnets

    • I remember in March 2015 they shut Northstar down because of some thundersnow incidents, when it happened then it was the first time they had shut down in March from lightning this century. Lightning in the Sierra just after winter happens, the big concern is if it starts to happen earlier…I was involved in a chairlift lightning strike incident last year in April, this is an issue growing in seriousness

      • Yolo Hoe

        Toast

  • Craig Matthews

    When you call challenge weather gods, you loose. I left my tools in the back of my pickup last night and woke up to the sound of rain. Ended up with a quarter inch in upper Carmel Valley. Quite a surprise. I think it was localized though, as areas near town received a lot less. Now we have gusty nw winds and very hazy air….typical for spring along the central coast.

    • Rusty Rails

      Last night KSBW was hyping a healthy bullseye in the hills around Carmel Valley. Good to see that verified.

      • Craig Matthews

        Was that Lee Solomon? Didn’t catch that one but seams like the nw flow really helped squeeze out some rain on Carmel Valley and the nw side of the Santa Lucias….good upslope. Opposed to S.C mtns/San Lorenzo Valley typically receiving the upslope.

    • inclinejj

      Think on the bright side, leave tools in your truck up here, and you have no tools in the morning.

      • Craig Matthews

        LOL.

        • inclinejj

          I’m not kidding, these zombie tweakers roam around at night and will steal anything and everything that isn’t tied or bolted down.

          • Craig Matthews

            That is really too bad. I hear reports like that all the time from folks in town. Even out here in the country where the closest neighbor is 2 miles away n sometimes we still get those kind of problems as well…

  • Charlie B

    Reno weather update (11:40 am): Snowing heavily. No, wait…sun just came out. Yup, sunny now. Pretty nice day really. Wind just kicked up….oops, snowing again. Can’t see across parking lot. People dashing from their cars….no…clouds just broke and sun is back out…birds happily searching for worms…

    • Craig Matthews

      Never a dull moment in the Sierra and east of the crest today!!

    • inclinejj

      Your closer to downtown or Southern Reno than the Valleys right?

      • Charlie B

        Down near Windy Hill in the SW.

        • inclinejj

          By the Gunnerman house?

  • Nate
  • https://www.facebook.com/CADWR/
    183% water content of average

  • inclinejj
  • AlTahoe

    Interesting NWS report out of Maine today for a new snow depth record. It’s interesting that it broke their 1968-1969 record and on the west coast mammoth is breaking their 1968-1969 snowfall records

    There has been a foot or more of snow on the ground at Caribou,
    Maine since November 30th for a total of 121 days. This is the
    longest consecutive stretch with a foot or more of snow on the
    ground at Caribou. The old record of 120 days was set during the
    winter of 1968-1969. Weather record began at Caribou in 1939.

    $$

  • happ [Los Angeles]
    • Craig Matthews

      2012 re-visited. Ugh!!

  • RunningSprings6250

    Clearly the most important debate in meteorology right now…which list is correct?!

    http://www.popcrunch.com/10-hottest-weather-girls-ever/?img=122239

    http://themanguide.com/15-hottest-weather-girls-on-the-planet/

    Will Yanet bring the summer monsoon to the SW US this summer?!

    • Yanet Garcia (NYC, USA)

      I bring problems now more than before

  • jstrahl

    Today’s CPC 6-10 outlook continues to show above normal precipitation, especially Bay Area north, and likewise 8-14, not quite as strongly as 6-10.

  • Rio Rat
    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      I had to turn away from my screen……….looking at the picture and I felt the need to sneeze.

    • annette johnson

      Nice! Looks like you have quite the green thumb 🙂

      • Rio Rat

        Thanks, owe it all to my Grandmother, her famous line was never trust the experts.

    • Pfirman

      Have it in the Guernsey White, I think.

      • Rio Rat

        I know Annie’s Annuals has a white Alba Maderense

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I see some healthy looking cymbidiums in bloom in the foreground as well.

    • Idaho Native

      Where do you live? I just planted my first Geranium Maderense and excited to see it reach mature stage though I’m told it can be really finicky about climates…

      • Rio Rat

        On the Coast in Santa Cruz County, easy to grow, not to much sun & water every wk or 2. They usually bloom in 2nd yr, treat more like a fern than a sunflower plant.

  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

    I heard there were reports of thunder and lightning at northstar, is this true?

    • inclinejj

      Scroll down the page it was mentioned.

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)
  • jstrahl

    18Z GFS wetter than the 12Z in LR, especially around the 14th, brings rain down to the Bay Area on the 9th as well.

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)
    • Dan the Weatherman

      It appears that Orange County is sitting in a D1 bubble surrounded by D0. It must have been the result of that San Diego County storm that missed the area back in late February.

      I can’t believe how the spigot just suddenly shut off after that huge storm in San Diego County.

      • Pfirman

        The hand of fate loves spigots?

  • RunningSprings6250

    Surprise rain/hail shower after what I thought was just fog forming over the mountain here – what a tease! LOL https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ec78a83631772177d46ed0cd7c0989b92997d9dbb1f667a6ba9264723231dd2d.png

  • WSDTLA

    pretty decent gusts here in down here in LA still at almost 9 pm.

  • Thunderstorm

    This caught my attention. A very rare east to west el-nino may happen by this fall. No let up in the flooding seen for some time in Peru. Warm areas in the Pacific Ocean expanding south of the equator.

    • redlands

      explain ????

      • Possible East Pacific Bjerknes feedback but IMO some WWB’s needed.

      • Thunderstorm

        The way I understand it is that there is a coastal el-nino off the coast of Peru that has become very persistent (long lasting). The Walker circulation normally causes the waters to be cooler on the eastern side of the north Pacific Ocean but because of the persistence of the warmer then normal waters off the coast of Peru the Humbolt current is now moving this warmer water to the west along the equator. Normal el- nino needs WWB (westerly wind bursts) in the western Pacific Ocean to get things started. Also the current MJO is still hung up in the rabbit hole.

  • palmsprings

    Crazy winds here today, PS Airport recorded a gust of 66 mph. Palm fronds flying everywhere, even saw a few smaller trees uprooted. Visibility near zero in certain areas due to sand.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I was just reading the NWS San Diego AFD and they mentioned the strong winds and the reports of some damage in the Coachella Valley along with the low visibility from blowing dust and sand.

    • redlands

      Gust to 32 mph in Redlands, Ca – Southern Ca — electricity out several times — one time for 30 minutes. Bit exciting and scary — thought outside weather sensors would be blown off — along with my tv antenna

    • redlands

      Did you measure any high winds at your station ???? Mr Palmsprings

      • palmsprings

        Only 48 mph at my station, but then again, the anemometer isn’t as high above the ground as the official readings.

  • annette johnson

    We had quite a few weather alerts for high winds and dust storms from NWS in Las Vegas for the Colorado River area and eastern San Bernardino county. After the wind picked up, the mountains across the lake disappeared in the dust. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f01c825eb999843127ad8a469af1921f90fe3b2602e22f15f76e8413c566784f.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4b95a1ebb9f60187d0f3ad92b7758f9c833e117d4ea48840144bc9f18f620261.jpg
    Shortly thereafter, it looked like a “mini” haboob moved across Lake Havasu. It wasn’t like the monsters that move through Phoenix during the monsoon, but it was pretty exciting nonetheless. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/af9e2b6f08a27d9efed36499708e8d0558646482721e82a0a165ad5207f1634f.jpg

    • Pfirman

      Mini yoicks.

  • Freddy66

    Insane winds here in the San Fernando valley… Easily the strongest this year. Crap blowing everywhere.

    • Pfirman

      Agree, unfortunately. Weird in that it blew three days ago, was quiet two days ago, blew yesterday, and is back again today, strong as ever.
      Hope it takes tomorrow off.
      On another note, I do not exactly understand its genesis and if anyone here can explain it how it can blow for three days, I would be thankful.

      • Freddy66

        Low pressure dropping into Great Basin with high pressure pushing in from the pacific….I assume

        • Pfirman

          It is the hated North Wind here. I guess you could be correct if the low were cyclonic and the high anti-cyclonic,

      • Thunderstorm

        See that big below normal cold blob in the NE Pacific Ocean. Cold air loves to run to the warmer air in the SW states every spring. Stronger winds then normal this spring,especially late April thru May.

    • max

      Gusts between 40 to near 80 last nite in WVENTURA and E. SB Counties and mtn’s. Hills are drying out fast..lots of dust blowing. Still blowing hard at dawn.

  • CHeden

    Winds are subsiding here in San Bruno, and as a result, crystal clear skies are gracing a beautiful sunrise. Looks like a glorious day in store for later today as winds continue to ease and the dust settles out…with Saturday even nicer.
    On the ride down the valley yesterday, was hard at times to keep the ol’ jeeper in check.
    The GFS is continuing to trend drier than depicted earlier in the week, but there is still some action slated for wk2….which has remained consistent. Still expecting some further waffling on the MR forecasts until early next week when we’ll get a better gauge on how strong the jet will get and where it will cross the west coast.

    • Freddy66

      Would be nice to get one more storm in so cal before six months of summer

      • CHeden

        You never know. It is cutoff low season.

    • Pfirman

      Not subsiding yet in the lower Sac. Valley. In fact, gusts right now at 40mph. Tis the season.

  • No such thing as EQ weather but there has been swarm in Aromas south of San Jose. http://earthquaketrack.com/us-ca-san-jose/recent

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Still blowing pretty strong after a night of high winds. I am sneezing up a storm this morning.

    • Pfirman

      Pun not intended? Most people just wash their cars or some such.

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        No pun! Dust/ pollen is kicked up by winds but things are calming down as the day progresses.

        • Pfirman

          I know, but could not resist your choice of metaphor.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      It’s looking like summer is here…. : (

      High pressure dominating, jet riding up and over, everything pushed north. Running the sprinklers tonight, dang.

    • alanstorm

      Today’s forecast for next weekend for the North coast is wet with low temps in the upper 30’s!

  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    Seems SD NWS is always the optimist in their forecasts. I like the way the sum up the AFD LR hoping the Canadian model comes through for us.

    Later next week the jet stream across the Pacific sags southward and seems to send organized precipitation into northern and central California. The Canadian model even wants to send some of that northerly love into Southern California, but model consensus remains dry heading into next weekend.

  • honzik

    SCMtns update. Very windy last night and this morning. More importantly, I spoke with my neighbor who reports that we’re up to nearly 96″ (8 feet!) of rain for the year, which is the second highest in his 35 years of measuring (112″ in 82-83).

    Other than that, it’s spring and blossoms are on the trees, including the pink lady apple tree pictured below. Pears blossoms are about to burst, and plums have long gone to leaf…
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/376160d95e02309f7d6027a1053a3a9ff48f453b223ec8cf2d0d8aa5cfd6311f.jpg

    • I have a green apple that just is budding but not quite out, yet. Yup my plum seemed to bloom early this year?

  • RunningSprings6250

    Holy canole it’s been windy!!! Low of 28 with blasting winds, easily strongest of the season. Currently 37.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      What happened to the “wee cows”?

      • Pfirman

        Out to mini pasture.

        • click

          Dave Thomas (aka storm master) needed them for wee burgers

    • click

      Wind/sand storm up in the desert yesterday, oddly it was calmer at my place than further north in victor valley. Could see the sand in the air over there but pretty clear near the Pass. It was kinda cool, I could see the windmills spinning at different speeds.

      • RunningSprings6250

        Yea we received the alerts on our phones but then it started raining/hailing and just as quickly the wind whipped up and blew the clouds away!

        The rain, the wind and then the cold were all very much a surprise – a nice treat from not watching the forecast/models like a hawk for once! LOL

      • Pfirman

        Been meaning to ask….do you have solar and/or windmill?

        • click

          I really wanted to get a windmill, but the economics just didn’t work out at the time. We got solar and I’ve been pretty happy with it, I’m in the 95+ percentile for sunny days in CA, the mountains mostly block the marine layer and clouds from getting up to the desert so it’s (almost) ALWAYS sunny even when there is rain/clouds/gloom in the IE.

          • Pfirman

            Somewhere I read one nights wind equals three days sun in one’s batteries if off grid. Not a worry for you even if.

          • click

            Makes sense, give the variable sun angle etc, you get a few hours of peak generation and waxing/waning generation the rest of the time. The wind just never stops blowing up here lol.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      It has been breezy in Orange the last couple of days, but nothing very strong. These NW wind events just don’t affect my area too much. Only in very rare cases do these type of winds come up strong here.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    NOAA 6-10 & 8-14 looks real good for NorCal

  • Charlie B

    I had to drive from Reno to Yerington this morning. Suffice it to say that all three major eastern N. Sierra rivers (Truckee, Carson and Walker) are all running high and fast. After so many years of seeing them in a condition that would…did…permit someone to cross them jumping from rock to rock without getting a foot wet this sight was refreshing. That is the practical consequence of all those storms we plotted, rooted for, analyzed and watched this winter. Much more to come as spring temps attack the 180+% snowpack up in the high mountains. Hopefully it will be a gradual release but……

  • Nice shot of a few of the spillway gates in the headworks at Oroville. ~ 17’x33′ is size of one of eight gates. The flood pool (room left before resevoir is full) is 750,000 acre feet which is approx. the 848′ level At that lake level the water level is at the top of the spillway gates. The bottom of the spillway gate is called the invert and the lake level of the invert is approx 813 feet. Current lake level is 840 feet, which is about 8 feet below the top of the spillway gate. I just knew everybody wanted to know this…LOL Have a great weekend!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/79030aedb17790b607d384a74d452fef49676281e732c917d42a1867934dd9a4.jpg

    • Pfirman

      So a 25 foot wall of water just waiting to sweep those guys away.
      Thanks for the post. I am always interested.

      • The rest of the upvotes are in celebration that I’m off the blog for the weekend.

  • Thunderstorm

    Wind came up very strong just now and humidity tumbled to 20%, temp climbed to 74, wind direction switched to NE, stronger then yesterday. Bay area by Fremont.

  • inclinejj

    Looks like I will finish out March with 3.73 for the month. 1.04 for the week. Pacifica. Temp 62.4 Humidity 57%. Winds are picking up from 10-16.9.

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    windows are open, 72 F in my apartment. Beautiful day, wish our summers can be this comfortable, maybe I’ll start looking forward to the dry season :/

  • Rio Rat

    Where are Capt’n & Bombillo1, this Blog sorely misses their Wit, Wisdom, & Sarcasm. I think Capt’n has paid his dues in the WW pokey, & Bombillo1 is MIA. I demand their return!

    • Pfirman

      People come and go. Probably battle fatigue.

      • Rio Rat

        I was there when they carried Capt’n off the battle field, he will return.

    • Shane Ritter

      I saw him post on BAs page just the other day

    • Thunderstorm

      Maybe he’s actually a PI and away?

  • Thunderstorm

    One snow measuring site in the Sierras has 94 inches of snow with a water content of 42.6 inches. Central Sierra I think.

  • Bartshe

    Still waiting on most of the April 1 snow data, but this bit of data from Kings River drainage paints a story and whispers about the future of Sierra winters & warming (% in at end of line is April 1 final):

    Kings River Basin
    398 Bench Lake 10,600 26-MAR 121.5 59.0 49% 26.9 219%
    239 Fred Meadow 6,950 28-MAR 12.5 3.5 28% 19.8 18%

    • mbmattcor (TD 6400′)

      Leavitt Lake on East side of Sonora Pass is a great station I always like to look at. Nice jeep road access, but at 243″ snow depth it’s gonna be a while until I get in there.
      http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryDaily?LVT

      • Tuolumne

        It’s on the east side but I think it gets a lot of windblown snow off the crest. Great station, indeed!

  • Charlie B

    Does anyone know the condition of the Stevens Trail to the North fork of the American near Colfax? We are itching for a hike to see the river. I understand that there might be a problematic waterfall???

    • tomocean

      It’s fine. The waterfall has abated since the break in the rains. You always have to be extra careful near that spot though and take it slow. The wild flowers are really starting to pop. Make sure you don’t leave anything valuable in your car. Thieves have been breaking into cars at the parking lot and stealing things.

  • Stop Geoengineering
  • Stop Geoengineering
  • Cap’n

    March 2017 stats for the west end of Donner Lake California elevation 5,900 feet:
    39″ snow
    3.4″ rain
    10 sleeves of thin mints
    3 bottles of NyQuil
    1 Lithium, 1 Thorazine refill
    March 5th: 25″ snow
    March 6th: 6″ snow
    March 21st: 2.3″ rain
    March 22nd: 2″ snow
    March 24th: .4″ rain, 3″ snow
    March 25th: .1″ rain
    March 26th: 3″ snow
    March 30th: .6″ rain, trace snow
    Season since October 1st: 321″ snow (2 foot margin for error, primarily January)
    59.5″ (2-4″ margin for error, primarily January).
    With the constant switching from rain to snow then back again during January it was impossible getting an accurate reading, but my numbers for that month should be pretty close.
    Some photos from the last 4 days of the month: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/47bc88d11f97ccd9240a775a69e5611fc1a1f3874fe16045dfaf5aee1d76ec21.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4a4fc30b1e4fdfb3c2367f45eef43589b41372d7d3249de80a530f8a1c094e6a.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d55a04f783a836ffa7e8d0eb93b348fb1dc6dbbf1798180147fe4c466d45845b.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/81f607e2691421adda10283067933823cf4b06c143ec06288b4a7dfcecdd4f31.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a58ec66a263340cde9e944a41f6d920cb251f9ea7639616ae197adfc63e9cb31.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/faae7776465fa1f34f3f13ca0a1f1c1a214bbd05f036bad5f9836c7c2b98cd87.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2ad97df8111e113ff441c409250c0b3c012cfdd3c4749b31d2735844360e28c3.jpg

    • David

      Great pictures. Glad you’re back!

      • Yolo Hoe

        Good to see the circle remains unbroken — great pics and looking forward to castle/lassen/Shasta — world class circuit if there ever was one

        • inclinejj

          Welcome back Cap’n. We were wondering what happened to you. Great photos. Hope all is well!

      • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

        Did u get banned for no reason, and why was your comment deleted, besides that at this rate it looks like snow will be gone by May. just seems like in the last several years snow levels have got higher and higher, anyone notice this?

        • jstrahl

          You can see it by clicking the link under it, but strange that it’s hidden. Length?

      • Dan the Weatherman

        I don’t know why Capn’s comment above said it was awaiting moderation. I had to click on it to make it show. It was weather-related and it had some great pictures!

      • inclinejj

        Ok this is something straight out of the Twilight Zone. Cap’n your post disappeared and now it’s back waiting for moderation.

    • When did you come back!?!? I moved out of the Donner Summit weeks ago :/

  • Stop Geoengineering

    CIA Whistleblower Speaks Out About Climate Engineering

  • Stop Geoengineering
  • Stop Geoengineering
  • Stop Geoengineering
  • Stop Geoengineering
  • Stop Geoengineering
  • Stop Geoengineering
  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    I think it might be time “holy wee cows” time based on the 00z GFS showing quite a bit of rain for the Nor Cal area now over a few days. Could be an interesting weekend….at least The Masters is on if you’re stuck inside.

  • ConcepcionImmaculadaPantalones

    I hope the tiny little birdies who built their nest in some of the branches of one of the trees here get through this wind stuff – poor things. It looks like they did their best to have built a sturdy nest, but it is so windy and they are tiny little birds…

    Those geese though….they had better not have any goslings here. This community doesn’t want their honking-kind. We like our ducks and the first batch of ducklings should be hatching soon. And here I’m making it sound like we’ve got that ‘sharks vs jets’ scene from West Side Story but with waterfowl.

    Need more rain. Less wind.

  • Cap’n

    I just had a post that I spent 20 minutes composing with my monthly numbers get deleted as “spam”? Time to cash in my newcomer chips for a six pack and politely say screw you guys.

    • Yolo Hoe

      That was indeed weird — the data and pics were great and very welcome — maybe breitbart is bored with national politics and picking a fight with Californians who dare to suggest the snow line is rising?

    • David

      Your post with the monthly numbers is still showing.

    • Tuolumne

      Posts get replaced with an ‘awaiting moderation’ note if there are enough downvotes. Sounds like a targeted attack by outsiders.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        It must be something being done by outsiders, because I don’t think anyone here would be downvoting Cap’n’s comments.

        • Nate

          I highly doubt that it’s because of downvotes. It might be that something about the post (maybe length or the list format?) threw the disqus spam filter off, which is notorious for having issues. Either way, it shouldn’t have been marked as spam in the first place.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            It very well could have something to do with the spam filter in Disqus, and you are right that it shouldn’t have been marked as spam.

      • jstrahl

        Is this related to the numerous geoengineering posts from a couple of hours ago? Like the person who did it (they got deleted) is doing an attack on this site in revenge, possibly?

      • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

        Cap’n has adversaries?

        • Tuolumne

          No, but if in fact somebody is targeting comments on this site for whatever reason then they would hit *somebody*.

    • AlTahoe

      I had to click the link to unhide your post. Really weird as I can’t see why it would be flagged?

    • inclinejj

      Your post said something like..awaiting moderation. The up or down vote arrows were there but no reply button, then the post was gone. I was welcoming you back and my post flashed a couple times and disapeared. Sounds like it’s an issue with the site.

      • Not sure what’s going on here either…I certainly haven’t deleted any of these. The moderation panel is telling me they have been deleted by the original poster…

  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)
    • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

      Even says phone,this is a tablet!

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I have been noticing the last couple of days from time to time that typing comments on here is really slow due to a delay in characters being displayed on the screen. I am using Windows 10 and Chrome, so I don’t know if it is my computer or something about the site.

      Has anyone else been having this issue recently on here?

    • Hi,

      Obviously, this shouldn’t be happening. But I’ve never been able to replicate any of these issues on my end. It would be very helpful if those who have been experiencing issues like this to send me an email directly describing the problem in some detail, including specific information such as screenshots, URLs, and your device type/operating system (danielswain AT weatherwest.com). Thanks!

  • Dan the Weatherman

    March was the driest month of the entire rainy season here in
    Orange going back to October. A paltry 0.12″ fell during the entire month and it only rained measurably 2 days this month. I am hoping April turns out wetter than this month! I have experienced Junes in the past that have been “march” wetter than this March.

  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)
  • Dan the Weatherman

    From San Diego NWS:
    Later next week the jet stream across the Pacific sags southward and seems to send organized precipitation into northern and central California. The Canadian model even wants to send some of that northerly love into Southern California, but model consensus remains dry heading into next weekend.

    I hope the other models start trending toward the Canadian!

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      I have a feeling the Great Basin inside slider on Sunday/Monday has a chance to cut off and sit opening a wave for next weeks trough and at the same time cooling the SW deserts which would help with the jet breaking trough the ridge.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    This is phenomenal!

    Norway –

    • PRCountyNative

      It’s like the Norway tourism bureau put that out. “If your country either hasn’t any, or fails to appreciate the weather, or you just need to relax: Norway”.

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    Snow stats for March:

    Snow 5.25″
    Average for March 16.98″
    Precip 6.09″
    Average for March 8.22″

  • Yolo Hoe

    I know we should be cautious regarding the models beyond a few days, but since we’re nearing end of WY I feel compelled to echo Rob’s ‘holy wee cows’ below based on the 06Z GFS as we won’t have many more chances to squander our hopes and obsessions before things come to a quiet close on a remarkable season.

  • Nate
    • janky

      Good try! My guard was already up though from my kids getting me this morning…..Happy 4/1.

    • Seems legit.

    • It actually looks pretty kosher until I klicked on it – I thought it would say 384 hrs which wouldn’t make this a good joke, the GFS already IS one!

    • weathergeek100

      Nice April fools right here!

    • Dan the Weatherman

      April Fools! A hurricane of that magnitude that close to the Socal coast would be an extraordinarily rare event even during the heart of hurricane season in September!

  • Rio Rat

    April 1st with prospects of more liquid sunshine soon,4.76 March total for Aptos on the coast in Santa Cruz County, with a season total of 50.74 & counting, most since 97/98 that had 52.80 at this time.Interesting that Mar 98 only had 3.78 for rain total, but finished yr with 59.51.April & May picked another 7 inches that season, who knows?

    • PRCountyNative

      Otters don’t stand a chance!

  • Dan weather maniac

    rain chances and amounts went up quite abit vs last night for the bay area for Fri – Sun, showing over an inch over the the weekend for my area. This is much improved from the trend, but the 9AM forecast discussion is not out yet, so Im not buying in yet (+ its still not in the 5 day)…but lets see what the day shows with the models. I havent had to water yet this year and am hoping get through most of april with minimal or no water….

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    March was one of the driest in quite a few years. March was very warm also though nothing compared to 2015. My station data starts in 1995 so it is rather limited but I refer to previous data. It suggests a continued pattern of early spring warmth. But April over the past 22 years has been trending cooler and now there is only 1 degree difference between March [mean: 63.2°] and April [64.7°] at my location.

  • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

    To cap’n/barney: Just remember you’ve got to be right here in the right position when the weather breaks bra!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d431c2df7a2c3b02a80e2577b13ac02bd7c53dd245266a2c0a6ffe9a76d5e521.jpg

  • alanstorm

    12z GFS & 30mb Jetstream forecast for next Friday.
    A bit of a storm parade riding that strong jet. Thunderstorm prospect all weekend looks GOOD.
    I’m cancelling the Concord Home Show
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/beeefe75c7c5ebe04e850c60f4ec58cfbfd057ce53a0186f5ea827aeecadf800.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dfc634773da0119825b8ec84e04a5109ed3d2edaebb240a0e2affe0e30b43f2a.jpg

  • Bartshe
    • Henry

      After the deluge we had in January and February where storms came one after another, weather in the Bay Area and activity on WeatherWest have largely returned to normal. Which means many days of predictably dry weather, while folks on this blog daydream about storms in the long range forecasts of the GFS. But whereas in previous seasons this was the routine in midwinter, at least this year we already received enough precipitation to end the drought and we are getting reacquainted with the dry weather routine as we enter the normal dry season.

      And yes this is the first day of the normal dry season. Normal rainfall from April 1 – September 30 (the second half of the water year) is only 2-3″ in most of the Bay Area.

      • Pfirman

        ‘…already received enough to end the drought….’

        Nice April Fool considering we have overdrafted the groundwater worse than when we had ‘normal’ weather.

        Precipitation in California will always be a fingernail-biting affair, either too much, too little, or none at all, and drought will always be around the corner.

        • Yolo Hoe

          Amen. Only amendment is that drought in real terms that takes into account the state’s various annual uses + groundwater deficits is now perpetual for the foreseeable future; the annual question now and going forward is did things somewhat improve or somewhat worsen after any given water year. Unless (against all odds) this season signaled the beginning of a new wetter pattern as a result of our changing climate regime and miraculously California is a beneficiary?

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Agreed Henry. We got spoiled this winter with all of the action. We’re going thru withdrawals now, a slow acknowledgement of no more rain in the forecast and the only variable is whether or not the coastal stratus will make it inland or not… it was sooo much fun while it lasted, we were like kids in Rainyland/Snowplaymountain.

    • jstrahl

      It’s been trending like this since 0Z, but maybe that’s because that one was also 4/1. 🙂

    • Rusty Rails

      Hope it dries out south of Sonoma for the next few weeks.

  • Hear very loud chirping in front yard. Stops. Investigate.
    Greatsuccess!.jpg
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c50544b02569354619c6d465ac06dcc135f7ad1bba4227e5a20493165ad0b4cf.jpg

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      What is it? Alien invaders? Chemtrail culprit? Katy Did? 🙂

    • inclinejj

      Looks like something you take out of the fly box when big Brown Trout or Big Rainbows are being fussy.

    • annette johnson

      Cicada? Hard to believe that critter lived under ground as a nymph for the last 13-17 years.

      • inclinejj

        Looks like a Cicada. The photo I pulled up in my fly tying book shows one just like that but black. Same size, same sort of webbed what looks like a tail section.

        • Mating Cicadas. Surprisingly small this time though.

          • Pfirman

            Thought that sucker looked weird.

        • annette johnson

          I guess there are about 80 different species in CA, but they all have the same MO…live underground for years, come out, attract a mate, females lay their eggs then die. I had them in a palo verde tree in my backyard a couple years ago.

  • inclinejj

    Pacifica. 2.50 pm. 74.8 degrees very light winds barometer 30.07. Humidity 27%

    • Jason

      I raced the mile over at San Francisco State this morning at 11:30. Despite being less than 2 miles from the ocean, it was uncomfortably warm at nearly 70 degrees. Performances suffer on days like today, where it’s warm and hazy.

      • Pfirman

        You saying you didn’t break four minutes?

        • Jason

          Nope, but broke 4:50 though

          • Pfirman

            I broke a sweat just thinking about it.

  • RunningSprings6250

    Another “20% chance of a tiny bit of rain” for SoCal come Monday….yay, I’m overjoyed….

    So much for going out with a bang this winter, on to the next one…what will 2018 bring?!

    • The RRR will return. Ya heard it here first.

    • weathergeek100

      Yeah it was quite an abrupt and very early end to the rain season, especially for you guys down there. I can’t believe how the last series of storms completely fooled the hell out of you guys. I recall the AFDs calling for the potential of heavy showers and over an inch of rain on the coast just about 4-5 days prior to one of those storms. Much of SoCal got 0.00 out of that one. Sheesh! Those computer models sometimes, I tell ya.

      • RunningSprings6250

        We’d be singing a totally different tune if the only three big storms weren’t so localized like you mentioned.

        I got the mid January storm, thank god, then SB/VT got their AR and then San Diego/TJ had their very localized AR. Both of those events were minuscule storms here…

        Had these all been area wide we’d be very happy campers in the southland!

        • Dan the Weatherman

          I would have been much happier if the San Diego/Tijuana storm had brought just as heavy totals to the rest of Socal and if the last two storms in March performed as originally predicted. This would have led to a more normal wrap up of the rainy season and would have reduced the chances of high heat later in the spring. Instead I fear several bouts of abnormal heat in the 90’s or even 100+ anywhere from about mid April to late May just because the rainy season ended earlier than normal (if it is really over at this point).

      • Dan the Weatherman

        I remember the San Diego NWS office calling for 0.75″ to 1.5″ from the “storms” that hit in late March and I wound up with a whopping 0.07″ here in Orange from that event. Sometimes the computer models absolutely suck and sometimes they are right on!

  • weathergeek100

    Heading to San Diego next weekend. I hope there’s still some green left in those hills down there as the hot sun dries up anything and everything down there. There should at least be some good wildflowers around despite the peak now over. Probably a decent amount of green in SD county thanks to that rare end of Feb AR. LA on the other hand had their last precip in mid Feb, Feb 17 I think to be exact. What a turn of events down south. Who knew that that event may have been the last major storm for SoCal this season.

    Chances of rain this weekend up and down the coast. We’ll see if we’re being fooled or not on this April fools day.

    • Tom

      I’m in OC foothills and still mostly green depending on exposure. Though past it’s green prime, there are some flower fields. Not Ireland, but still pretty nice. My area had about 24.5 inches this season, definitely front loaded in the season.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        The hills are still green in the foothills of the Santa Ana Mountains just east of Orange, but they will start drying out and turning brown if we don’t get any more meaningful rain soon.

    • DelMarSD

      Hills are definitely still green here in SD. Lots of gorgeous wildflowers here. Spring is in full bloom.

    • RunningSprings6250

      They’ll be brown in 7-14 days, already showing signs of happening…

  • DelMarSD

    Weather has been too boring the last couple of weeks. Yeah, I know I live in So Cal. But it would be great to have one of those April cutoff lows, even if it only brings convection to the mountains.

    • RunningSprings6250

      Several weeks….

    • Rainmaker (San Jose)

      I have a feeling Socal is going to have an impressive monsoon season this summer if this el nino prediction holds. sst’s are climbing so I wouldn’t fret over any late season storms to come barreling through

      • Sfedblog

        I gotta feeling,
        A feeling deep inside on yea!
        Everybody had a hard year
        Everybody had a good time
        Everybody had a wet dream
        Everybody saw the sunshine
        Oh yea!

      • Chris

        El Niño’s are usually accompanied by southwest flow in the summer. Monsoon season is usually drier than average…… until you get a decaying Pacific hurricane moving up the coast.
        I’m guessing this will happen sometime in late August through mid September.

  • Phil(ontario)

    With the equatorial SSTs heating up, I wonder if that is why all the late season storms have stayed to the northern half of the state. Very similar to the pattern we had all last year, and perhaps a sign of things to come next year?

    • DelMarSD

      Yikes. I hope not.

    • weathergeek100

      I don’t think so. For that, you would need much above avg SSTs in a very large region extending from the equator to central Baja. That’s what happened (we think) with last year’s El Niño. The warm water went too far north and helped expand the Hadley cell further north. Otherwise, I’d say that the general consensus remains that El Niño’s can bring above avg precip to CA, especially SoCal. Let’s just remember that nothing is guaranteed and we’re only talking about higher CHANCES of above avg precip…as we got a major reconfirmation of that last year.

  • Thunderstorm

    The entire east coast of south america on the Pacific Ocean side has warmed dramatically. There is flooding now in Columbia also. Humbolt current should indeed warm the equator from east to west.

  • happ [Los Angeles]
    • Bartshe

      New average, this will be the good ol’ days soon enough.

  • Yolo Hoe

    BA just upped the ante and predicted 2+ feet for Tahoe resorts next Friday/Saturday.

    Took a sunshine hike this afternoon at 6300′ on northern flank of Mt Pluto; tree hole for small conifer shows approximately 2.5′ snowpack that was generally representative of the situation in that area. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2b789bee61ea9e2795c5fe2ec64d56340690117e13ce082d7f9906040acaf66f.jpg And here’s some crystalline resin oozing from one of many casualties of this year’s heavy snowfall https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f1ff85b63c449395f5782ce390d54ff7db32aa2a90a68cb248d48bcc14ec2a27.jpg

  • Nate

    Flew over the Central Sierra today and had an awesome view–here’s what 175% of normal snowpack looks like from the air: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5b8d7ab99c7b373af0aa12bd0d63ec9845ead159339c4aec7314fd16336b3835.jpg

    • Dan the Weatherman

      Looks great! This is all good news for our water supply!

    • Wow!

    • Bartshe

      Nice. And that is just the south-facing aspect.

      • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

        Ya south facing corn cycle coverage best in years. Especially for south of that picture…

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Still holding strong up above the 8K. Nice.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Somewhere under all of that snow, is the Sierra’s! LOL

  • Thunderstorm

    Looking for certain big storm next weekend! Trending farther south.

    • BRP (Ventura)

      Read the 4 different NWS Office Discussions this morning; Sac, Monterrey, SD and Oxnard, of the 4, which one do you suppose was the least optimistic of any precip making it down here in So Cal? Ding ding, OX! But yeah, snowfall from this coming up storm looks impressive for April. Hold on to your hats, the fat lady has not sung yet!

      • Dan weather maniac

        Now that’s a true weather fanatic! Reading 4 different discussions!

        I’m looking forward to the 2pm Bay Area update, hopefully the wetter trend remains

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          Here is the 8:25 AM PDT Sunday forecast for late next week out of the Monterrey office.

          “A significant pattern change is then expected later in the week. The models have been consistent in developing a broad upper trough off the West Coast by Thursday, along with a moist flow across the Eastern Pacific. Rain may begin in the northern portion of our area Wednesday night or Thursday. But the main action is expected to take place from late Thursday Night into Friday when a strong zonal upper jet is projected to punch inland across northern California and a deep surface low is forecast to develop offshore and track towards the Oregon coast.

          If the Friday system develops as currently forecast by the models, this would be a significant storm for early April, with widespread rain across our forecast area, the potential for heavy rain across at least the northern portion of our area, and locally strong, gusty southerly winds. The pattern is then forecast to remain unsettled through next weekend and into the early part of the following week, with periods of rain continuing along with increasing chances of thunderstorms as a colder and more unstable air mass arrives.”

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            and the 1:44PM echo’s the same forecast for late next week. Says the models are showing a remarkable consistency, which bodes well for a return to wet and windy weather. GOOD!!

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        NWS_LA is forecasting rain for Saturday

        • Dan the Weatherman

          NWS San Diego is indicating a chance of rain for Friday and a slight chance Saturday at this point.

  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

    Beautiful imagery from GOES-16 satellite showing the severe thunderstorms over ArkLATex region that could produce strong tornadoes today https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ae754b8e34b2e855b7b99f2e4cc635285e9611cb689bb14d9398cc1ff02629eb.png

    • Yolo Hoe

      Wow!! Thanks for that

    • ArkLATex, sounds like a South Eastern disposable glove company.

  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

    Second high risk of the year and were barely into April,big years of severe weather almost always corrilaties with La Ninas and sometimes when we get above normal rain seasons. Good luck to all those people out there,sentence from convective outlook summary shows the threat, Widespread severe thunderstorms capable of significant tornadoes. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/45ad655d5c91c949385d7b2937f50f84469649927db0946576770fdc736b6c55.png

  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    Hoping next weekend brings us much needed rain after a disappointing late Feb and March. The last substantial rain event in my area fell on Feb 17th (2.66″), with a paltry 0.38″ total since. In March I tallied 0.21″ compared to 1.50″ last year. Now the good news. Total rainfall so far this RY (since Oct 1)….21.27″, compared to 8.27″ for all of last year.

    Keeping hope that April and May give us a good parting shot of precip before we head into our dry season.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Yes, March was a real disappointment: dry and very warm. Unfortunately, the last 3 years have produced warmer than normal/ drier than normal Aprils [if recent analogues count].

  • Thor
    • jstrahl

      Looks like Mt Burdell.

      • Thor

        Big Rock ridge I believe.

        • jstrahl

          Thanks!

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      We’ll go from the Golden State to the temporarily GREEN State!

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Lush display of spring time in California

      • Thor

        There were poppies (and many other flowers) everywhere but the phone doesnt do them justice.

  • alanstorm

    Holy CRAP.
    Lookit dat JET!
    We’re looking at 5 days of rainy weather starting Thursday.
    (12z GFS & 300mb Jet forecasts for Fri)
    Bullseye: Mendocino Co.
    Anyone south of me want to trade?
    I’ve had enough this season

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/989582d022c1c9f69187d0b251babcf0d064da333645b3693fbf27a1ecefd263.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/589c37dfb15f8f8f68c5bc6a64876aa4f5fd73fcf856e3aa1ca8039d7e40219f.jpg

    • Yolo Hoe

      Dude, time to hunker down one last time — that’s one gnarley jet projection for your neck of the woods

      • alanstorm

        Should get pretty windy

    • jstrahl

      The blues just make it to the Bay Area.

    • Good, I hope that jet makes my jet from Tokyo go faster (ground speed) and shortens my long transpacific leg.

      • alanstorm

        It should.
        I’ve made that run from Taipei to SFO quite a few times, & when the jet is zonal & screaming, we would arrive ahead of schedule.
        However, going TO Asia from SFO was bumpy as hell

  • tomocean
    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      As Ansel Adams called the Sierra’s – The Range of Light. Some of the most magnificent mountains on the planet, and home to the tallest peak in the contiguous United States Mt. Whitney. Oh what a place to call home, beloved California.

      • Pfirman

        Actually that was John Muir who coined that.

        • Craig Matthews

          Yup.

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)
    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      No radar returns showing. Warm today here in SJ isn’t it? Feels good.

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

        Warm and a nice breeze.

    • Rusty Rails

      I’ve was watching that bubble up from the Santa Cruz side.

      • honzik

        Me too!

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Not that this juice is coming our way any time soon, but what a beautiful storm is up in the GOA right now!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/08bd27fc1622eac8019efdec26abf430b947d489234dcdcd1ef93da3d083588e.jpg

    • Rainmaker (San Jose)

      California has a sunburn

  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

    Why are most the ski resorts closing around the 14-23 of April, I think it’s waste of snow and this year it won’t be hard to manage the snow this and so I think people will enjoy the long season since ski season has been so short in the last drought

    • Shane Ritter

      I could be wrong, but I think a lot has to with permits and insurance, as well as marketing and staffing. Alot of the staff have jobs lined up and leave. But I know a few resorts will remain open much later. Rose and squaw for sure will be open until may.

      • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

        July 4 for Mammoth and squaw

    • Rio Rat

      Change of the seasons, Baseball, Sunshine, the Beach, they will ski before Thanksgiving on 12 inch base, but leave a 10ft base for the Surf & Sand.

    • matthew

      In a word – insurance. They take out a policy that ends in mid April so thats when they shut down. The fact that there is a lack of interest also contributes. Truckee has much fewer people already. The fact that the snow sucks this time of year also contributes.

      • Charlie B

        Yup on insurance and interest. Snow sucks??? That is subjective. Hit it right and good corn can get you to a level only the angels know. Of course, a few minutes later it does indeed suck but I have paid dearly for youthful magic moments over the years so momentary joy does tend to stick in my mind…

        • matthew

          Let’s see…a couple hours of hard pack (aka ice)…45 minutes of good snow…then a couple hours of slurpee. I know that it is subjective, but that qualifies as ‘sucks’ for me.

    • inclinejj

      Most ski resorts lease land from the US Forest Service. I don’t know the exact numbers but once skier/boarder head counts go below a set number they announce the closing dates.

      Once the weather warms up in the area, people’s interests change to the kids baseball and soccer.

      Also it depends on Easter Week falls.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      As was noted below a combination of reasons from the leases to insurance and also employees. Most resort employees are seasonal, they leave for their summer jobs often higher paying (forestry work/summer FFs) or they head to another part of the world chasing snow. Most resorts see a daily head count dip come April too many other things to compete with from kids sports, golf, boating, and people’s yards. Combine all that and it’s not cost productive to stay open past Easter.

  • alanstorm

    So far, heavy rain & low temps of 33° predicted for next weekend.
    Wonder what the snow levels will be…
    Should be quite the convection convention!

  • Danlyle (Mariposa)

    Missed posting this yesterday, but maybe it already was. For the Geo-engineering types, April 1st style.

    https://youtu.be/QAwL0O5nXe0

  • Jason

    The 15-degree above normal temperatures this weekend were way too much. Not sure why heat that is two or three standard deviations above normal is “nice” weather, which unfortunately has become all too common over the last decade. I was out in the Sacramento area earlier today and the grass is starting to turn brown already.

    I am anxiously awaiting the cooler and wetter weather later this week.

    • Chris

      April is known for big swings in temperatures.
      High 70s and low 80s are not uncommon.
      Either are highs in the 50s with rain.
      “Average” temperatures are just that…. the average.

      • When looking at average vs median it’s vary apparent, especially in April. For temps and precip

    • inclinejj

      Pacifica. Saturday 77.9 degrees. The sea breeze and early morning fog ( Burned off by 8:00 a.m.) kept Sunday’s tempature at 72.6.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        It was about the same temperature here in inland Orange County on Saturday. I’m surprised that it was as warm as it was up there, unless you had offshore flow.