Break in storms comes to end; Northern California closes in on record wet season

Filed in Uncategorized by on March 18, 2017 1,543 Comments

Multi-week break in active storm pattern allows water to recede

A persistent trough along the West Coast–associated with wet conditions in California–has co-occurred with a persistent upstream ridge over the Aleutians. (NCEP via ESRL)

2016-2017 turned out to be quite the winter across California (especially in the northern half of the state). A relentless series of storms–driven by persistent troughing and an associated active jet stream along the West Coast–brought numerous atmospheric rivers and associated heavy precipitation to much of the state since November. Notably, there was in fact a broad and highly persistent downstream ridge centered over the Aleutian Islands for much of the winter. This conspicuous feature does bear some resemblance to the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge which plagued California in recent drought years, though clearly its position this winter was far enough west to have vastly different effects in the Golden State. I will eventually have a more comprehensive post focused on the possible causes of California’s reversal in fortune this year, along with some thoughts regarding why such an anomalously wet winter was essentially unanticipated.

All of California has been wetter than average this winter; most of Northern California has experienced record wet conditions. (WRCC)

On average, California has experienced near to above-average temperatures this winter, despite consistent precipitation. (WRCC)

Interestingly, none of the individual storms so far this season have been particularly destructive by California’s historical standards. Instead, most of the widespread flooding, mudslides, and other infrastructure disruptions that have occurred stemmed primarily from the cumulative effect of unusually frequent moderate to strong storm events. It has been previously noted that California’s most dangerous flood events do not necessarily occur during California’s wettest winters, although it’s not totally clear whether that’s just a matter of historical luck. What is pretty clear, though, is that this year’s extreme wetness on the seasonal scale has pushed parts of California’s aging water infrastructure to the brink–and had even a single additional warm, wet atmospheric river come ashore during the peak of winter, the overall flood situation might have been considerably more serious.

Fortunately, most of California did receive a substantial break from the wet weather over the past couple of weeks, with mostly dry and warm conditions nearly statewide so far in March. That dry pattern, however, is rapidly coming to an end (as I discuss further below).

 

 

 

Yes, California really is closing in on wettest Water Year on record

Now that we’re more than 2/3 of the way through California’s wet season, it’s pretty clear that much of the state has experienced its wettest 3-6 month period on record. Virtually every corner of the state is above average to date, though anomalies have been much more impressive in the north. The Northern Sierra watersheds are currently sitting at just above 200% of average precipitation for the season to date–a rather extraordinary statistic. If California receives at least average precipitation for the rest of the season, 2016-2017 would become the state’s wettest Water Year on record.

Overall, California’s year-to-date precipitation is nearly the wettest on record. (UCSD)

Snowpack in California’s mountains is also well above average and the highest since the very wet/snowy winter of 2010-2011. What is striking, however, is how much Sierra snow water equivalent has lagged overall precipitation. For example, Northern Sierra snow water equivalent is currently 145% of average (vs 202% of average for overall precipitation). This effect has been particularly pronounced at middle-elevation regions where wintertime temperatures are more “marginal” for frozen precipitation than at colder, higher elevations. While this winter has certainly been colder than recent (record warm) ones, conditions have still been near to above average across most of the state–and more importantly, have been considerably warmer than during most of California’s historically wet winters.

 

Substantial late-season storminess to return; Central Valley thunderstorms likely

Model ensemble forecasts suggest a high likelihood of moderate to heavy precipitation over Norcal next 10d, with light to moderate amounts across SoCal. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

California’s temporary reprieve from wet conditions is rapidly coming to a close. A series of storms will bring renewed precipitation to most of the state over the next few days, and accumulations could be pretty impressive for mid-March. Northern California is expected to receive the lion’s share of precipitation from this series of storms, but Southern California will definitely still see some rainfall (and perhaps some heavier stuff, depending on how the details work out). Several of these storms will have a respectable moisture tap, and heavy precipitation may occur in the same orographically favored areas that have already seen a tremendous amount of rain this winter. While none of these storms looks especially strong at the moment, soils are still saturated and rivers running high across the northern half of the state. Thus, there will probably be some renewed flooding concerns at some point over the next 10 days, especially since any rainfall will combine with the early snowmelt pulse that has already begun this year. Also, since these storms will be relatively slow moving and will likely contain substantial moisture, there is the potential for precipitation accumulations to end up somewhat higher than are currently anticipated.

 

The upcoming storms will also be associated with cold air aloft during at least a portion of the event, and with the increasingly strong March sun angle atmospheric instability will be elevated across much of the state. Thus, occasional thunderstorms are a good bet across favored areas (especially the Central Valley and perhaps parts of the South Coast). Some locally strong to severe thunderstorms will probably occur at some point over the next 10 days in the Central Valley (as often happens in March), but pinpointing the most active days is difficult at the moment. Needless to say…an active late winter/early spring weather pattern will likely be in place for at least the next 10-12 days, and perhaps beyond.

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  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

    My prediction, the season isn’t over yet, storms in April and May!

  • Boromir (Orcutt, CA)
  • mattzweck
  • Danlyle (Mariposa)

    Was surprised to wake up during the night with more rain. .51″ after midnight, which wasn’t fully anticipated.

  • ben
    • Yolo Hoe

      That is a graphic that gives one pause — transformational change required.

    • Or stop pumping or don’t grow crops or deliver water to grow crops.

    • Dan weather maniac

      I agree! As much as people complain about our boom bust water years I think there is plenty o rain but we just havnt adequately put into place proper and natural capturing methods.

      Dams help for sure but basin / groundwater aquifer recharge and river conversion from washing out to sea are huge huge huge water capture opportunity methods that are not in common practice yet here in Ca.

      There is so much opportunity to daylight streams and reporpuse concrete river channels into natural waterways, create pond and seasonal shallow lake areas in the Central Valley and cities, create areas that capture water and let it soak into our ground / aqiufier …

    • Disagree. We have already constructed a huge, publicly-funded system guaranteeing extremely low cost water to agribusiness interests so that they can grow crops in an environment that can’t sustain them. By capturing “storm runoff” (sounds so innocent, no?) for storage for agriculture we would further diminish the already impaired water systems that drain to the SF Bay, decreasing the environmental health of many areas of California.

      It is simply unsustainable to continue to push for more and more water-intensive agriculture (plus expanding urban populations) in the Central Valley. It cannot support these things.

      • ben

        Eventually the ground water budget needs to zero out over the next few decades. A smart step is to fallow alfalfa fields and turn them into recharge basins where permeability is high. Much smarter than building more surface capacity except for Sites. Regulating gw pumping is important too of course.

        • PRCountyNative

          Good to hear. I worry that the sentiment portrayed in the tweet Daniel shared is a corporate ag talking point, meant to sway public opinion towards more dams more water projects. Of the harmful type.

          What do you think the chances are of moving towards a more sustainable situation?

    • Tuolumne

      You can’t assume that all the green areas have good-quality groundwater that’s usable for crops. On the west side of the San Joaquin Valley that’s often not true, with groundwater sometimes being salty and/or having other harmful minerals. Adding good groundwater to bad is just throwing it away.

      • whisperingsage

        Is that where the selenium is at toxic levels?

        • Tuolumne

          I’m not sure whether or not selenium is at toxic levels in any of the groundwater. But if there’s enough of it in the water, over time it can accumulate to toxic levels in soil or in evaporation ponds for agricultural drainage water. In any case, not all groundwater on the west side of the valley is usable due to salt content. Farmers on the east side getting clean, low-mineral Sierra runoff (and also having better soils) are just in a much better position for long-term sustainability of agriculture.

  • Yolo Hoe
    • Dan weather maniac

      Awesome!!

  • AlTahoe

    Nice little sneaker powder day at heavenly. North facing areas was nice dry powder and surprisingly deep in places. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0b4c5dfcce582569c3996a3a14d09dd74636ec7c4823b9ddfed7f5ae359ea844.jpg

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

    I changed my username to T’storm98 and changed my avatar again

    • Craig Matthews

      That should help us get some good T-storm action this spring 😉

  • Rio Rat

    1.28 from this latest system in Aptos,4.61 for March so far, with Mar average at 4.30, definitely not the B word for March in this neck of the woods.

    • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

      What’s ur your annual so far

      • Rio Rat

        Just popped 50 inches.

  • Craig Matthews

    Caught a little pic of San Luis Res the other day while passing thru….filled to the brim! Thunderstorm in the distance made a nice touch to the scene https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/378569acc878679139f2e9274e363b5852f5b9a1a88f28ebfd40aaf1e331e6fe.jpg

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Excellent shot! San Luis and Lexington on the way to Santa Cruz off of the 17 are the easiest seen reservoirs off of major thoroughfares around the bay area. Seeing them filled up to the “bathtub ring” is heartening and bodes well for the summer.

    • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

      Saw it in November and it looked half full or less and looked like Mono Lake on a hazy summer day.

    • Craig Matthews

      That you up there?

      • Ha I only fly planes not random assemblies of fabric and Paracord. I did go off some nice cliffs today but my air time was brief 🙂

    • AlTahoe
      • So that’s what was on fire all day! Over by the meadow entrance on the spur half there was something that went up in flames at 1030ish, and then kept burning all day. It was raging, I got some pictures of it.
        Also a private helicopter tried twice to get through the Carson pass, VFR into IMC it was snowing on the spur – first they wound around red cliffs trying to find a route, flew around Kirkwood, and then flew back after giving up elsewhere landing near the parking lots. An L-39 buzzed the wall illegally low at 945 am.
        I would’ve bet $100 if that was a eagle or falcon in burner it would have caused awesome avalanches, all day there were avys, loud big ones.

        • Yolo Hoe

          Yes, lots of avy guns all day — all quiet on the western front (and pacific Crest)

  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

    In such a wet year like this how long should the hills stay green in the east bay, June, July? I know most of SC mountains have green year around.

    • DelMarSD

      Depends on how cool/wet the spring is. But I’m not sure how long the hills stay green up there.

    • AlTahoe

      Even in my the wettest years the diablo range turns brown in April to May. Pretty much the first time there is wide spread 80’s

    • Idaho Native

      Most of what we see as “green hills” are grasses and some native wildflowers and weeds. This vegetation typically has root systems that go down just a few inches. Therefore, as soon as our rain stops and the top layer of soil dries out, things brown very fast.

      • Tuolumne

        Most of what we see as “green hills” are non-native grasses…

        Added the missing words. The non-native grasses are generally annuals (plants that live less than a year). They have very shallow roots and turn brown fast after shallow soil moisture is exhausted.

        The native grasses are usually missing or scarce in valley and foothill areas, but they are generally perennials (plants that live at least several years, often many years) and they have deep root systems that can tap deeper soil moisture.

        Perennial grasses will stay green longer in the spring in our climate and may even start to send up some new green shoots before the first rains. Given their rarity since the annuals took over in the late 19th century, this is no longer a common sight in California.

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      Since almost had a rainless March, everything is starting to brown pretty quick down here….

    • Chris

      Even with rain all spring and summer, the grasses will die as their life cycle ends.
      We had frequent rains through mid June in 1998 and the hills were semi brown by mid May.

    • Henry

      I would guess that this year the east bay hills will stay green into mid May. The north facing slopes here in the mountains near Los Gatos might stay green into June.

      I recall last year the slopes of Mt Diablo and other areas of the east bay hills were very green in mid April, and turned brown between late April to mid May. Around here there was still some green in mid to late May.

  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)
  • RandomTreeInSB

    Brief periods of shower last night dropped a few hundredth inch in Santa Barbara, with seasonal total now around 7 inches around average.
    Meanwhile, Solimar burn area between SBA/VTA counties is looking green and gorgeous…
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/db79f3b29a7d9daf3defd8504862e6db3c5662a366c96c43cd6259621ac3ccca.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/53c4799eeb7abf663454e61d75ec16e4e0bbaa0d87a3893f28e50d230b61dc5a.jpg

  • T’storm98 (Orcutt, CA)

    I hope we see thunderstorms like this, this summer. I want a very active monsoon season this year unlike last year.

  • Steve Lutton

    Check out the documentary “Water & Power” on National Geographic. It’s an eye opener.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Saw that. The central inland coast is the template for using water as a commodity, like gas.

  • Yolo Hoe

    Completed a snowshoe circuit between 6000 – 6500′ this afternoon approximately 10 miles ESE of Donner pass — snowpack ranged from 0 in high sun exposure areas to approximately 4′ in favored spots — the melt is on at that elevation, but still lots of fun.

    Enjoyed a lecture this evening from Greg Palmer at Donner State park regarding the Stephens/Townsend/Murphy party of 1844 — they crossed the summit in late November in 2 feet of snow during a winter less penalizing than that endured by the Donner Party a few years later (who approached the summit a full month earlier in late October — cruel fate indeed).

    • Charlie B

      They hit a bad year indeed. Much like Tobias and his group. I wonder about them sometimes. Hope they are safe and sound.

      • matthew

        And well fed.

  • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

    Enough with the monsoon posts, we still have April…..

    • Tazmanian

      If. I recall this is a weather blog so we will talk about moonsoon stuff has much has we want and if you don’t like it you can go else where

      • Jim

        I think your reading way too much into what he said…I didn’t take what he said negatively at all

      • alanstorm

        Be looking at the actions of the Jetstream this summer.
        The meridional flow we had during the recent drought years really brought the monsoon to the SW

        • Chris

          It is believed that a heavier snow pack in the southern Rockies delays the start of the monsoon season in the SW.
          Dry winters in AZ are usually folowed by wet summers and vice versa.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    No rain down here today and only 0.37 for the month. But over 20 inches for rain year! Any ideas on if April will be wet?

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Just saw this on the satellite images and had to share. Check out the cloud pattern on the front coming in for tomorrow. Telling us it’s “ok”, that Mother Nature heard our cry for a wet winter, and she’s delivered. Indeed, a winter to remember.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/86ba1049c7e88f654fa79e60992a15caf473d69f26d7b47bfe38097ff59fbbe6.png

    • alanstorm

      The snowpack is the difference maker this year.
      What a gift!

  • mbmattcor (TD 6400′)
    • inclinejj

      Nice Bike!

  • gedawei

    I was tied down at home in Santa Clara with a bunch of “honey-do’s” yesterday, but my buddies were out and about. One of them flew a drone over Morro Bay State Park, and another took a hike around Pinnacles NP.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/060062f642b5b74e296baafa8e5b9ba204a4774f2a73f01d1d01ab9ab2b0cbd4.jpg Ah, Spring!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4fb39f9fe47e35f15077e0581caa841f963474686d2f730ce299865742f05e88.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn
    .com/images/060062f642b5b74e296baafa8e5b9ba204a4774f2a73f01d1d01ab9ab2b0cbd4.jpg

    • Pfirman

      You keep good company.

  • Charlie B

    Many people have mentioned how storms tended to “over perform” this year. Sure, there were a few under performers and even a few busts, but……
    Then I thought: Wait. Storms don’t over perform, under perform or go bust. Storms have no thoughts or emotions. They don’t favor one area and deprive another because they want to or are nice or mean. They perform exactly as nature dictates given the conditions of the clouds and winds in them, the atmosphere around them and the topography below them. Any bust, under performance or over performance is our perception of a given storm based on our expectations fueled by computer models we humans created that might capture the basics of a storm but not the storm’s true personality or essence. Those factors will remain a mystery until the earth gets tired of the annoyance we cause to everything else and relegate us to the dustbin of history.

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      Well said Charlie…human ego is very much a separate entity from nature.

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        So true. We get emotionally attached to outcomes, on things that are completely out of our control (the weather.) Talk about setting ourselves up for constant disappointment…. Just accept what is before us, and try and be happy.

    • jstrahl

      Excellent, Charlie. Weather is an on-going process, not a “performance.” You can’t buy tickets online or anywhere else for that matter, and if you’ve paid attention long enough you should know better than to attach expectations to any one particular event.

      • Henry

        That’s right, storms do not over perform or under perform. Forecast models over predict or under predict.

        • Tuolumne

          And our expectations over- or underperform.

    • Pfirman

      Wait, like storms, the earth does have emotions or conscience or it would have done that already.

  • janky

    @ Squaw Valley this morning and it’s been snowing the whole time. Really windy upper mountain and I am surprised by the consistent snow already. Earlier than I expected.

    • AlTahoe

      I went down to the dog beach just now and saw that it was snowing pretty good on the north, east, and west shores. I took a picture of the doughnut hole above my neighborhood. Lol https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/89b23316b1c57ab86aebf25ae8591ee4f1ed2f33c54d9e190b3b3286ac8cf311.jpg

      • matthew

        Is that a chem trail I see going through the middle of the donut hole?

        Sorry…could not resist.

        • Tuolumne

          I see lots of dihydrogen monoxide in solid (snow on the mountains), liquid (the lake), and aerosolized (clouds, snow, and contrail) forms. Huge amounts of that chemical are present… call in the hazmat team!

          • matthew

            It is a conspiracy, it tell you. A conspiracy!!!

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            Quick! Buy Gold! Buy your survival kit! Buy gas masks!

            Eyeroll….

          • Pfirman

            Maybe apocryphal, but I heard TSA pulled a guy aside who had that on his bottle as a prank. I swear it was not me.

      • Were there seasons in the past when you got hammered and other areas around you didn’t?

        • AlTahoe

          Nope usually snowy winters are snowy everywhere. 2010-2011 had about 3 snow storms that dumped more on south lake than north shore.

    • Yolo Hoe

      I’m at N* and can see you guys are getting pounded as Crest looks angry — we’re even getting a bit of spillover already — as you said, earlier than I expected

  • Rio Rat
    • Yolo Hoe

      Awesome

  • Yolo Hoe
  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    50 days until eastern pacific Hurricane season! I have a feeling this will be another active year for the area as sst’s gradually warm.

  • alanstorm

    Weak, cold storm currently rolling into Mendocino Co North. A bit of wind & light rain. Maybe more as cold front passes this afternoon.
    Then THATS IT I guess.
    Time for the Northerly Winds to take over as per Spring

    • PRCountyNative

      Nothing fun about endless NW wind…

      • alanstorm

        I don’t know what fun is right about now.
        Maybe it’s a warm evening, sitting out & stargazing in a t shirt, cold Sierra Nevada Torpedo in one hand, one-hitter in the other….

        • PRCountyNative

          Sweet! I’m squeezing in one more ski trip, fun is sliding down 1000′ of white goodness in high spirits… And anticipating 99 degree summer days and cold clear fresh water. Otherwise spring is my least favorite. Best time to travel.

        • Yolo Hoe

          That’s a winning combo — makes me want to rush into summer — only edit for Yolo folks is addition of delta breeze to make things ‘just right’

  • Sfedblog

    Storm approaching and nothing to learn on CWB. What gives? Closed up shop for the rest of the season? Too much of a good thing? Gone fishin’ ? I used to be able to rely on this trusty site for a 101 perspectives. Forecast fatigue? Too much abundance?

    Signed, needy weather watcher.

  • Admode (Susanville)
  • inclinejj
    • Pfirman

      Almost missed the gal.

  • tomocean

    Some peaceful shots yesterday evening as I was imbing a nice old vine zin and watching the world go by. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1049b5638fb7870fbb31a2101feece418bb0f455ea3ff1d033f324f61a61ab05.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d2528f5cc1bb77c9e5d0d9d5c147199c03f9078199ae21ced5adbccbdd76f1d8.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a35b62cbe0dbf6b02447172c80fcf5ef57a7107770789634cf9942bd650d016a.jpg

    And since we’re headed into the doldrums after this storm, here’s a nice video of “rare” cloud formations from National Geographic.

    • Craig Matthews

      Nice way to end the day. Thanks for sharing. That cloud in pic 1 and 2 looks quite towering…nice shot!

      • tomocean

        Thanks. They were enormous.

    • Pfirman

      No comment on the mushroom cloud.

      • tomocean

        Well, they are extremely rare clouds. 🙂

  • Tyler Price (Monterey/Seaside)

    Really looking forward to April!! It’s going to be the most active April we’ve seen weather-wise In California in many many of years!! It will trump march by a long shot!! Even SoCal will see a lot of storminess in April due to numerous cut-off lows that linger for days!! It’s going to be an April we will remember! Btw I got more rains from post frontal showers on Friday evening and night then I did from the actual cold front.

    • Craig Matthews

      That was an interesting storm Friday. Looked like it fell apart, so went to bed, then got woken up in the middle of the night by a heavy downpour that left me with .50″ in the gauge. April could get very interesting as there is so much ongoing energy across the NPac and active jet…I’m gonna be watchin this Big ole’ Low entering the GOA in the LR. It may go up and around and down to our east, but if it doesn’t and drops in on us, whoah, look out!! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d216746c824b96ae94a7c24678d382a158bb1b3d95daad6167f40ccddfa589d2.png

      • Yolo Hoe

        That’s some Deep Blue — that might put some folks over the edge.

      • Tyler Price (Monterey/Seaside)

        That Siberian ridge is in good placement to add more spin into that deep GOA low.. it’s ina good spot to pull jet stream level winds on the lows weather periphery to cause further deepening of the GOA low and hence a stronger
        More potent storm along the west coast.

        • Craig Matthews

          Yeah good thoughts Tyler… this is definitely a need to watch pattern. I just don’t think the season is over yet.

      • MSLP looks wicked. That will brew something for sure

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I am really hoping for more rain in Socal because it feels like the spigot shut off down here at the end of February, and very little has fallen here in March.

  • Craig Matthews

    Wildflowers finally starting to appear in South Monterey County. Pic taken in Reliz Canyon/Arroyo Seco area. It is amazing how quickly these flowers appeared. Drove through this area 5 days ago and there were no flowers https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7431827e12776f08cc758012bacefc06266cfac5a3f15527aa9cb138cbd0dccc.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e20d1bdc084ddc61e9aaf4b74fe3bebedcc883ba57ae2180c022afada1a8d074.jpg

    • tomocean

      Very nice! Not sure how much of a bloom we’ll get up in the north. Some speculation that all the rain will lead to the non-native grasses choking them out somewhat. We shall see in the next few weeks after the sun and warmth.

      • Craig Matthews

        That’s already happening down here as the non native grass has grown 2 feet tall on many of the hills, and is choking out wildflower fields. The California Poppy and Lupin plants are just beginning to bud, but can’t see them unless you are right on top of them…unfortunately. Mid April tends to be the best time for wildflowers in this area.

        • Pfirman

          No deer, no cattle?

      • Pfirman

        Bear Valley has cattle that keep the grasses down, leave the flowers mostly alone, and hence a nice display. It is all private land, but they don’t chase you away.

        • Yolo Hoe

          Thanks for the insider tip

  • Nate
    • Wowzy!

    • Craig Matthews

      Wow, crazy hook on those echoes….This next week, at least, is looking like a very active period for the Plains/Midwest. Gonna be lots of footage.

    • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)

      Pecos Hank footage will be great if anyone knows who he is, check him out

      • Nate

        Pecos Hank is awesome, he is by far my favorite storm chaser on YouTube. Always has amazing footage and very well put together videos (and no constant yelling like some of the other guys).

  • mattzweck

    here in the high desert/ Lancaster area. nice and breezy i think it suppose to be really windy tomorrow. we have wind advisory until 9pm tomorrow. welcome to spring.

  • Yesterday at Kirkwood. Skier: Bevan Waite, Photographer: CrashingOut.
    Dope.jpg
    http://i.imgur.com/VEGNpN9.jpg

    • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

      That boy will ruin the bottom of his skis. He has no sense!

    • Spot on, Bevan! (Ronnie Johns – Chopper reference)

  • Digging through some photos I took in Florida last summer. Clouds are cool here, too kind’a https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5b9bf08b39dbc6acf9774364bed128974d5192e48d75be34e11c7a813d23b198.jpg

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      I used to live in Fort Lauderdale, and the afternoon thunderstorms would almost always erupt over the Everglades in the early afternoon and drift east toward the coast, darkening the skies to black and them BOOM, the lightening and thunder would last till dusk along with heavy downpours.

    • Pfirman

      Did Tyler enhance that for you?

  • HighWater

    Northbound 395 this afternoon. around
    the bend is state rt. 120 Tioga Pass. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a7870c74260250950f7acf456920c0baae4
    a8b145e0b25416ab1c0d8fa3ca984.jpg
    Beautiful drive on the eastside. Water is flowing everywhere, in places i have never seen before. The spring runoff has only just begun

  • inclinejj

    Between a heavy drizzle to light rain. Moderate rain earlier. Rain started just as predicted at 5 pm. Pacifica.

  • Bobby M ( San Carlos/Tahoe)
  • RE: Metaghost – It’s funny you say that, who said those skis continued their relationship with the skier? Some love affairs have nasty breakups 🙂
    (that ski was having an affair with a powder bank mistress and went missing for 45 minutes…)
    http://i.imgur.com/cNUWS0m.jpg

    • AlTahoe

      Those are the skis that I have. The moment death wish. My favorite skis ever!

      • I still can’t believe he did that jump in tele bindings. The video is gnar he clears so many rocks.

        • Yolo Hoe

          Tele bindings? Good god. Gnar is an understatement. Great shots.

  • Tyler Price (Monterey/Seaside)

    It’s raining at a steady pace good steady rain and not just drizzlesnd it’s such low elevation it’s not showing up on the radar.. kind of like friday night after the cold front passed it was a steady light rain that lasted all night with heavier embedded showers and most of time it wasn’t even showing on radar.

  • alanstorm

    Eel R at Scotia humming along at a nice 25,000 cfs after hitting 43,000 cfs yesterday.
    Here are the flows the previous 5 years for late March:
    2012-. 16,000 cfs
    2013-. 2,600 cfs
    2014-. 2,900 cfs
    2015-. 1,500 cfs (awful!)
    2016-. 25,000 cfs. (recovery begins!)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e33fb026b179a1aaa307d0192b4059e410faf00dd839a206f5b2251794b23b04.png

  • jstrahl

    The rain earlier this evening (around 6 or so) was not the “main event.” Per NWS Bay Area within the last hour,

    “Brief mid level warm air advection mainly earlier today ahead of the
    cold front will continue to quickly shift south-southeastward
    parallel to the California coast and become replaced by cold air
    advection later tonight into Monday morning.”

  • matthew

    Just drove up 80 from Reno to Truckee. Absolutely SYP dumping rain. Rock slides have already started. I was hydro planing at 45 mph in places. Turned completely to snow at around 5700′. Already have about an inch at my house at 6100′.

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    00z still winter dreaming

    • alanstorm

      GFS Going Full Storm again.
      Geez

      • Tazmanian

        from SAC ADF this AM

        Longer-range models diverge early next week. The GFS & GEM both
        hint at some flavor of low pressure system moving through the
        region, whereas the ECMWF maintains a stronger ridge. With a high
        degree of uncertainty, our forecast reflects a blend of the
        various solutions. Dang

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

    0.13 from the latest system overnight. Beat forecasts.

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    Nada here. You folks North of I-80 saw most of it. The gauge looks empty this morning. March will indeed go out as a lamb.

    • Start the April showers bring May flowers chant. 🙂

    • AlTahoe

      Just a trace here in south lake. We are still 2″ below average for seasonal snowfall which is pretty incredible since this is our wettest winter ever.
      For reference the winters of 2007,8,9,10 all had more snow than this season at lake level