Series of atmospheric river storms to bring risk of significant California flooding

Filed in Uncategorized by on January 3, 2017 6,261 Comments

What happened to the “Arctic Outbreak” mentioned in the last post?

Well, it happened…somewhat further north than expected. The Pacific Northwest has been shivering through another unusually extended wave of subfreezing temperatures and snow–even along the immediate coast. These very cold temperatures did in fact make it to far northern California, where snowflakes were indeed observed near sea level along the North Coast (Crescent City briefly reported “thundersnow” on January 2nd) and in the lower hills of Mendocino County and the northern Sacramento foothills.

 

However, this extremely cold airmass did not make much southward progress beyond the northern third of California. Ultimately, the numerical weather models actually handled the complex atmospheric pattern over the North Pacific very well–pegging the approximate position of the very strong Alaska blocking ridge many days in advance. Subtle differences in the west-to-east flow across the far northeastern Pacific, however, have kept California warmer and wetter than initially expected over the past week. And remember those potential “big storms” I mentioned at the end of the last post? Well, those are now materializing in a pretty eyebrow-raising manner.

Meanwhile, at higher elevations in NorCal, one of the largest sustained snowfalls in several years is currently underway. Much of the Sierra Nevada above about 6000 feet in elevation is in the process of being buried by many inches of snow–and heavy snow rates will likely continue periodically for the next several days. By late Thursday, many places will likely be reporting totals in feet rather than inches. Due to the cold airmass still in place across NorCal, some spots as low as 2500 feet will experience unusually large accumulations before warmer air moves in. These recent, large snow accumulations have already led to a high risk of avalanches in steeper terrain–and may add to the already considerable flood risk developing for the coming weekend.

 

One-two (three?) atmospheric river punch will deliver copious precipitation

A series of extremely moist Pacific storm systems will take aim at California this week. The first of these is already bringing increasingly heavy rain (and mountain snow) along with gusty winds to much of northern California. This initial system probably won’t cause too many problems outside of some notable travel headaches over mountain passes and perhaps some minor local flooding. But this first round of precipitation will set the stage for bigger problems later this week into next week by saturating the soils north of about Santa Barbara and by depositing multiple feet of fresh snow to the Sierra Nevada, even at more moderate elevations.

The overall amount of water vapor transport in a 72hr period ending late Sunday is expected to be tremendous, and squarely aimed at California. (NCEP via UCSD)

The second storm is (by far) the one of greatest concern, as it will take the form a moisture-laden and slow-moving atmospheric river. While the details with this second system are still somewhat uncertain, virtually all numerical forecast models are painting a very broad area of extremely high precipitation totals over the next 6-7 days across the entire Sierra Nevada mountain chain and also in the coastal mountains from the Oregon border south to Monterey County. It’s still too early to say exactly how much precipitation will fall, but the potential is there for some very impressive numbers–perhaps greater than 20-25 inches along favored western slope regions of the Sierra Nevada and greater than 15 inches in the coastal mountains. Even in low elevation urban areas near the Bay Area and Sacramento regions, 7-day totals exceeding 5-7 inches are entirely possible.

Since this system is expected to be slow moving, the associated atmospheric river may stall over some portion of northern or central California on Sunday or Monday–or even waver back northward temporarily. If and when this occurs (as has been suggested by recent runs of both the ECMWF and GFS), there may be a 100-200 mile wide band of even higher precipitation totals. It’s impossible to say at this time where any stalling or frontal waves might occur, but that has the potential to be a serious situation locally.

This system will also be drastically warmer than its predecessor, and while snow levels could actually start out unusually low (locally in the 2,000-2,500 foot range), they will skyrocket as very strong warm advection occurs Saturday into Sunday. It’s possible that the models are currently presently overestimating the amount of airmass warming that will occur over the weekend, but given the subtropical origins of this atmospheric river snow levels could rise above 9,000 or perhaps even 10,000 feet at the height of the event.  This is above essentially all Sierra Nevada passes, and more importantly well above the majority of the recently-fallen snowpack in the 3000-8000 foot range. In fact, 850mb temperatures could rise to around +10C at this time–would would be very bad news indeed for the snowpack. The highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada could see tremendous snowfall totals, likely over 100 inches. And it’s true that storm #1 will drop quite a lot of snow at much lower elevations over the next 24 hours. But much of this snowpack could be erased by 24 hours of warm rain later this weekend.

 

 

Risk of significant, perhaps serious, flooding in parts of California next 10 days

Very large, double-digit precipitation totals are currently expected across most of higher-elevation northern and central California. (NCEP via pivotalweather.com)

Should the #2 storm this weekend come to fruition as currently depicted by the models, there will be a high risk of fairly widespread flooding throughout smaller rivers and streams in the Sierra Nevada–including the western foothills–and also in the Coast Ranges (especially near the Bay Area). Given the duration and magnitude of the event, there will also be an increasing risk of mainstem river flooding by Sunday. This risk will be amplified by the potential for widespread melting of a rather substantial lower elevation snowpack, especially on Sunday. It’s still too early to say just how serious this likely flooding may become, as this will likely depend strongly on just how persistent the atmospheric river ultimately is on Sunday and how much snowmelt actually occurs. But it does appear that the potential is there for a potentially serious, high-impact flood event across some portion of central or northern California by this weekend, and a more general risk of flooding elsewhere throughout the northern 2/3 of the state.

Animation of GFS-derived vertically integrated water vapor transport over time. Note remarkable persistence of Sunday AR event! (NCEP via UCSD)

For better or for worse, this does not really appear to be a Southern California storm event (though that could still change if there is a modest southward shift in the atmospheric river trajectory). It’ll still be wet in Los Angeles and San Diego, and precipitation could become briefly heavy at some point (probably early on Monday). But earlier forecasts suggesting the potential for very large rainfall totals near the LA Basin are no longer looking likely, as the bulk of this moisture is aimed much further north.

Beyond this weekend: conditions will likely remain quite active across the Pacific, and the very long range forecast even hints at the potential for another (though weaker) atmospheric river by the middle of next week. An ongoing active and wet pattern would prolong the risk of flooding throughout California, so this will bear close watching in the days to come.

I’ll be following this event in real-time on Twitter, and I may have another blog post on the Sunday storm if the higher-end flood scenarios are starting to look more likely.

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  • Cap’n
    • Y. Pestis

      Whatever is under that dumpage in the last photo is indistinguishable!

    • RunningSprings6250

      Love it!!!

    • Yolo Hoe

      Excellent — all hands accounted for.

      And nice job photo shopping those pics — we all know that much snow isn’t possible

      • CHeden

        No photoshopping that I can see.
        Unless there’s a hint of sarcasm, there?

        • Yolo Hoe

          Yes regarding the sarcasm!

          • CHeden

            Got it!
            Right up there with Calif. doesn’t have a water problem anymore.
            It’s all fixed now!

          • Yolo Hoe

            Indeed — wife and I were just discussing this morning — can’t take eye off that ball — despite the abundance we currently see above ground, subterranean is sadly a different story entirely

          • CHeden

            Yes, entirely. Would take years of this type of excess rainfall to get aquifers back up…assuming they’re even able to adsorb the groundwater anymore.

          • PRCountyNative

            Not an expert (but I play one on the internet at times) I have read that in some instances (subsidence of land would seem a clear indicator) that once the water is sucked out the pore spaces collapse and refill is not possible. It’s not like a big lake down there, it’s like a sponge, and if you suck out the water the sponge collapses. Subsequent soakings will not reinflate squished aquifer.

          • CHeden

            100% my understanding as well.
            In the case of many of our aquifers, especially in the SCent Valley, once the damage is done…it’s done. No turning back.

          • Pfirman

            Well, the water can come back, except it stays on top of the ground……as a flood.

    • Dan weather maniac

      Shiver me timbers! Batten down the hatches, deploy yer avalanche bombs and call in the muzikman!

      • Bombillo1

        Blow me down.

    • Bombillo1

      You are quickly approaching the point where there will be no room to plow snow. You can only push it out of the way just so long. I know you know this but for those that don’t live in the big stuff the limits of plowing can be reached. This is when the costs of keeping roads open skyrocket. Shop keepers have to pay for loaders and dump trucks. Can’t use big snow blowers etc. $$$$.

      • tomocean

        Whenever I start to see these epic snow amounts, I always think of this photo of Lassen NP. It was taken on June 1st, 1995 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e793ecbf888043ec577f26c3cc692d0c651b0a4bd8f2d89363030b09a4b1000a.jpg

        • inclinejj

          Mt Rose will look like that in a couple days.

          • matthew

            Not sure if you are joking, but I honestly would not doubt it.

        • click

          I remember driving through Crater Lake NP in July as a kid, the snow walls were still higher than the top of the van. An amazing sight, even though I grew up in Montana.

          • Thor

            I was going to say that picture looks like the Beartooth pass…many similar pics can be found from that awesome road.

          • click

            My grandparents had a cabin in Redlodge, at the base of that pass, and YES, crazy snow up there pretty much year round.

          • Thor

            Spent a few summers in RL- learned to fly fish on Rock Creek…and the West fork and the Boulder and the Stillwater… 🙂 ..and then pizza at Bogert’s!

          • Thor

            here is a cool webcam in case you want to see whats going on in Cooke City…one of the most isolated spots in the lower 48 in winter:
            http://www.seejh.com/webcams/nationalparks/yellowstone/olde-cooke-city

          • Pfirman

            Say, did you know a Kotar family in Redlodge?

    • matthew

      Hope you were able to make that Costco run. We may all be holed up for a while.

      • Cap’n

        We plan on Xcountry skiing to your place for lunch! Still snowing hard over there?

        • matthew

          Moderate. Not dumping, but I do not think that it has really stopped for about 24 hours now.

          • AlTahoe

            We had a lul for two hours and now it is dumping again

    • inclinejj

      It amazes me with all the over head wires you don’t have many outages.

      • Cap’n

        I’m shocked we have power and that we don’t have more power outages over here. I would be amazed if we don’t lose power for an extended period today.

        • AlTahoe

          Same here. Trees are heavily loaded with Sierra cement right now and so are the power lines

          • Cap’n

            It is completely dumping and it is about as wet as snow as you can get without it actually raining. Must be 2-3″ per hour of absolute cement. It might just snow through the whole event. Kind of hard to imagine it switching to rain. From what I read, it looks like temps will go down a bit in the afternoon?

      • matthew

        Truckee-Donner PUD actually does a very good job maintaining their systems. A friend who works there says that they need to maintain a peak capacity on water/power of over 3X what the full time population requires in order to handle the peak tourist seasons. So a community of around 15K people needs infrastructure to handle closer to 50K. Since this is a tourism economy reliability is a must.

    • maddogokp

      West End looking like 10/11 cheese maze. Next stop, berms into the power lines.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    this 1st wave of the storm is very impressive we have this now hit 1″ of rain and the mts has this 1st wave have stalled over us and droping big time snow fall in the mts som have all ready seen 3 too 5ft of snow so far may be 6 too 7 ft by now if Cheden is right there is a lot more on the way so we are not even in too the main part of this storm yet

  • CHeden

    Here’s a better view of the twin lows offshore and their current location….with the re-formed GoA low now NW of the mid-latitude low that’s tracking underneath.
    As noted, the GFS initialized very poorly with this setup, as it was showing the mid-latitude storm would still be SW of the GoA low….which was also depicted to be closer to the coast than it is now. For now, we’ll need to monitor if the offshore system stalls…and if so, for how long..and then will the low(s) resume a more progressive motion? We shall see. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6783500a5c8d3b21e268b51fa01933ffc9d4417e74379ec634f0b60208927927.jpg

    • Sublimesl

      So the lows are merging and that’s what’s impeding forward progress? Don’t like this setup, this is a lot of rain for the North Bay.

      • CHeden

        Yes and yes.

    • AlTahoe

      I noticed on radar that the moisture over the Sierra has started going south to north and is no longer making it over the crest. We have only had very light snow the last two hours. This usually brings in the warmer air as well and we have jumped up to 34F. I expect we will get light rain at some point today. When the cold front pushes through later this evening though things should get wild.

      • CHeden

        That’s the warm ridge. With most of the dynamics still way offshore, nearterm precip in the Sierra will be primarily the result of the strength of the low level STJ. Also, whatever the snow level will be also hinges on the strength of the jet. i.e a weaker jet means lower precip but lower snow levels, while a stronger jet pushes snow levels higher with higher precip.

      • TahoeCard

        Still dumping in Homewood

        • AlTahoe

          Picked back up here as well.

  • Yolo Hoe

    Rusty Rails: any news from the UP? Are they dusting off the rotary down in the Truckee yard?

  • Sublimesl

    1.37 since last night in Oakland HIlls, steady moderate rain, and honestly it looks like the cold front is 8 hours away unless it speeds up. It actually looks like its barely moving? This could get bad unless it speeds up.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    i would want too start clearing off your roof other wise it may cave in for haveing too march snow on it

    • AlTahoe

      The old timers say you only need to do that at lake level once you get 6 or more feet. My roof only has about 12″ right now.

      • inclinejj

        Many older Houses were built as Cabins and added on over time. Owners would gather up friends and build weekend warrior cabins. From the mid 1960’s to early 1980’s the Tahoe region had a building boom. Being Tahoe was either up or over the hill from the county building departments, building inspectors were few and far in between.

        • AlTahoe

          I would assume most of those have collapsed already from the previous big winters. Lol

    • matthew

      We are engineered for storms a whole lot bigger than this. Truckee requires something like 250 pounds per square foot loading in my neighborhood…more in areas that get more snow.

      • AlTahoe

        I researched the building loads required before I moved here and it is pretty crazy. I think the only other place with similar requirements are the snow belt areas of the Great Lakes.

        • matthew

          My house is 2×8’s on 16 inch centers. People wonder why it is so expensive to build up here…that is a LOT of lumber.

          • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

            Only issue I’ve ever had with snow on the roof was when it was above the chimney and we had to free the snow around it. Several years ago I remember the roof caving in at the Tahoe marina and some boats being destroyed.

          • I remember hearing about that flustercluck

        • Crank Tango

          And still they had a lot of roof collapses in Buffalo after the Nov 18, 2014 storm!
          #snowbeltnative

      • TahoeCard

        I remember in 2011 some of the older houses on west shore the owners talked about leaving bedroom doors open. They couldn’t open them after the loading.

        • AlTahoe

          We couldn’t get a friends front door to close during march of 2011 out in Meyers because the frame was bending.

    • *ucking sky trees, the bane of all airplanes.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      I love how blizzards literally turn your world upside down, why it’s best to never go out in them.

    • benSoCal

      Wow. It’s been dumping.
      Send the picture to your e-mail and add to your pictures.
      Upload from there for right side up pictures!

      • I don’t have time for that. I need to devote time to drinking my coffee, waxing my shoes, and watching Half in the Bag. Then, and only then, can you receive previous precious video. I’m sending all my videos via cellphone, I’m about to break 40gb of data for this month, as we have no fixed internet.

  • Avy bombs heard. Pieps micro bought.
    Oh btw we are closed, last I heard. Supposedly some wind damage to gondola building…but that’s just hearsay(in other words I don’t have the picture of it ;P)

    • maddogokp

      Sugie Tweet said both 80 and 40 are both closed so tough to get there 😉

      • inclinejj

        Did the mix this up? Open for trucks but closed to traffic?

        [IN THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA & SIERRA NEVADA]
        IS CLOSED FROM COLFAX (PLACER CO) TO THE NEVADA STATE LINE – DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY – MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE

        EASTBOUND TRUCKS ARE BEING SCREENED AT APPLEGATE (PLACER CO) – DRIVERS MUST HAVE MAXIMUM CHAINS IN THEIR POSSESSION IN ORDER TO PROCEED – PERMIT LOADS ARE PROHIBITED

        • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

          Looks like somehow you didn’t get the other part:
          IS CLOSED FROM COLFAX (PLACER CO) TO THE NEVADA STATE LINE – DUE TO REDUCED
          VISIBILITY – MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE

          taken from the Magnifeye website.

          • maddogokp

            And this from NWS RENO forecast discussion
            ” BOTTOM LINE: DO NOT TRAVEL IN THE EASTERN SIERRA. LIFE THREATENING
            BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE Occurring IN PLACES AND WILL CONTINUE
            THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. The next 24 hours will be very active
            to say the least… ” Stay home and tune

          • inclinejj

            Weird I cut and pasted from the Caltrans website.

  • JGold

    Raining in Redondo an unexpected treat!

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Updated Avalanche Warning from the USFS/Sierra Avalanche Center. I am sure these will be up for the next few days at least.
    http://www.sierraavalanchecenter.org/

  • tomocean

    Looks like the Yosemite Valley floor got a nice little snow fall! It also looks incredibly slushy in that meadow. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7ea3084e3914cbfd278ecdac101edc865f17ccd2b2d846f70e7e0db162b1432f.jpg

  • FolsomPrisonBlues

    It has been years since I have seen this weather here in CA! This is pretty awesome, aside from the flooding. Currently in Orangevale it is crazy windy and the rain is dumping. My backyard now officially looks like a swamp.

  • WalkmanJG

    The snow pictures and totals are incredible… Please keep them coming… Being still somewhat new to CA (only been here 4 years and am from the midwest), I’ve never seen anything like this…

    • Yolo Hoe

      Which part of Kansas? My family’s roots are the Flint Hills — some amazing prairie blizzards there, but obviously minor league compared to the Sierra version

      • Thor

        I wouldnt say prairie blizzards are minor league…maybe not as much snowfall but equally deadly with incredibly cold temps and hurricane winds…dont need much snow fall for a true blizzard to turn deadly.

        • Yolo Hoe

          You’re right — I have some scary childhood memories — and especially bad in the Great Plains where WalkmanJG hails from.

          • Thor

            I will take a Tahoe “blizzard” at 32 degrees and 3 feet of snow versus a North Dakota blizzard with 6 inches of snow but at -20f and -60 windchills anyday…

          • Pfirman

            At least one of those is getting rarer.

      • WalkmanJG

        I’m from the opposite side of the state, western half AKA the “middle of nowhere”… Literally…

        That being said, midwest blizzards are no joke and can be seriously deadly with only 6” of snow… You’d be amazed how high of drifts you can get with so little actual snow…

    • whisperingsage

      Did you think California was all beaches and palms?

      • WalkmanJG

        No… Not sure where you got that from… I was merely commenting that I didn’t come from a mountain state so seeing mountain snow fall totals and pictures like this are quite amazing to me…

        • whisperingsage

          I think you just answered my question.

    • Charlie B

      You ain’t seen nothing yet. Due to its location which can allow a combination of the warm pacific jet with cold air, snowstorms in the Sierra can be among the most intense in the world. The high passes receive about the same average snowfall as the Cascade passes in Oregon and Washington, but the snow comes in intense storms with fewer actual snow days than up north.
      During epic storm cycles cars and then houses disappear.
      That is also why the Sierra can have bust years more often than the PNW when the jets take a vacation.

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    RIP Pioneer Cabin Tree in Calaveras Big Trees State Park. The “walk through” Giant Sequoia crashed to the ground Sunday amidst creek flooding around its base. Pics galore http://www.sfgate.com.

    • whisperingsage

      Oh noooo!

  • Thor

    In Marin- light but steady rain for about 15hrs straight now- punctuated with heavier bursts on occasion…another ~1.5 inches in the gauge this morning with no let up in immediate sight. That makes for ~11.5 inches since last Tuesday.

  • Drippy here but nothing substantial…yet. Tonight?

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    now have 1.11″ of rain fall so far and we are no near done with this yet we have along ways too go still heck we have not even go in too the high winds yet

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)
    • Nathan

      GFS has been dialed in on big storms around the 20-23rd since practically 384h forecast, will be interesting to see if that actually comes true. Way too much time to say for sure, but all the elements coming together for now.

      • AlTahoe

        BA said the GFS and Euro are both showing it with the Euro actually being stronger. He said that the Canadian model is showing a ridge instead and it usually does pretty well in the long range so it is something that he doesn’t like. I am a Euro believer so I think we will be buried by the end of January

        • Nathan

          I’m in the “something, don’t know what exactly, will probably happen” camp.

          I’ll be in Tucson that weekend and there’s nothing quite so magical as sky island snow, so I’m rooting big time for that outcome.

          • Siernev

            I’ll be looking forward to a pic of the Santa Catalinas buried in snow.

          • Pfirman

            Santa Ritas too?

          • Siernev

            Sure, them too. We can even dispatch him over to the Pinalenos for a pic of snowy Mount Graham.

    • Steve92

      Wow you can really see how that low off the US/CAN border just pulls the storms into California!

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    NWS issued a high wind warning for Central Valley. My area has a wind advisory. Hopefully winds don’t get that strong. The rain is great but could do without the high winds.

    • I think you should get more rain with the wind than no or little wind. Hope your trees do okay.

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        leafless cherries really aren’t affected by the wind although almonds are. I am more concerned about structures and roofs. If the winds aren’t too strong and a short duration, it should be okay. I remember one spring getting 50 plus MPH gusts for two and half days. That was brutal

        • That’s Prius level gust (MPG) :)) I forgot about outbuildings and farm structures. Good luck.

  • tomocean

    The moisture plume is just not moving. Unlike this weekend where it at least fluctuated north to south. It is dead set on hosing one area this morning. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/914b74eef7ba4cfc8dac8f71f1469fb5e0b568be9bb5b0efcfbb05ac47894351.gif

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Mother Nature to NorCal: “Get Some!!!”

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      and the way this is looking now this could overperform this last weekend storm

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

        I think it will over perform in areas that did not see extreme numbers with the AR. Like the central valley, urban areas of the bay area, etc.

        • jstrahl

          Looks to me like the rain is departing the Bay Area on its way northeast?

          • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

            Darn. I jinxed it.

    • scott

      Furthern down south by Bakersfield, NWS says the ppt is supposed to start up after 4pm and showers then rain after 4am so I think it will start moving south in the next several hours .

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    CHP Truckee just did a FB live from Donner Summit and said visibility is less than 50′ while driving.

    • Cap’n

      Cantore is in the wrong spot!

  • UrbanBizarre (Oakland)

    Satellite timelapse of this weekend’s AR as it hit us: https://gfycat.com/SnoopyBlaringBlacklab

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      When this storm breaks I think we’ll be looking at snow piled up to 2nd stories not only at the summit but around Truckee and the West Shore. This should be one of those epic Tahoe winters where the pictures live on for many years to come.

    • Crouching Dallas

      *swish*

    • AlTahoe

      That is an awesome pic! If I was a kid living in that house I would have jumped out of that top window into the snow drift already.

  • Yolo Hoe

    Preparing for wet and windy bicycle ride to campus — current conditions in far southwest Davis are 53F, barometer steady at 29.89, rain rate, 0.04″ per hour, and SSE winds 5 – 10 mph

  • It’s at ~ 92% of restricted capacity as of today up from 87% yesterday.
    https://twitter.com/valleywater/status/818676373203976192

  • Bartshe
    • whisperingsage

      Great video, we’ve settled down for a bit in S lassen county. Hoping the sun will come out and recharge my batteries for 30 minutes. Getting wind though so maybe more snow soon. Flooded yard( 4″)sunk into dirt yesterday, ice melted at least where I walked. Got 1.5 ” last evening more of snow.

    • UrbanBizarre (Oakland)

      How’d you post the gif?

      • Bartshe

        just uploaded with the image icon

  • CHeden

    Much more detail in this first-light VIS. Looks like an impulse may be pushing east near the NW coast. To the the south, the AR over Cent Calif ain;t going anywhere for the time being. Whatever the weather is within the AR is what to expect on/off for most of today (IMHO). No real signs of an advancing CF ATTM.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/56a0e31560266c63f6c5e3f3532fd28222d5d3a90293b4add8e4a6cb8d3dba64.jpg

  • PRCountyNative

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9458f5ce07714d592c30c0c9e2959a7d150b11d82ec44e1271629dd65a940a5e.png

    NRL visible 9:30 am PST Monday (left half out to sea sun not quite up yet, thus that line)

    Some cool stuff going on out there! CH – What’s happening here? Those look like vertical cloud edges – 1000’s of feet high? – something one could almost jump off of…

    Snow day here in Bend Oregon, 1st visit. Coming down gently, 3′ in 3 days. Some good Mt Bachelor action awaiting (and already occurred)!

    Nothing but gourmet coffee and dispenaryables to occupy my time until the snow slows down, and a hot tub down the street. 25′ for the season up here. Folks around here do a lot of shoveling.

    • CHeden

      Tough to say, since higher clouds and lack of visible confirmation have been obscuring this area until now.
      The area we are looking at is very near the northern “apex” of the SW-NE oriented ridge, with what appears to be a pseudo-dry slot and subsiding air working it’s way NE along the ridge. While I can’t be sure, some of the action may be due to interaction between the dry slot and residual energy near the coast that lagged behind after the primary low to the north retrograded and re-organized. I’ll hazard a guess that the vertical walls in the clouds are indicating a sharply defined area of lift within the dry slot that is starting to push east, with the increasing forcing evident by the developing convection just off Cap Mendo…. at least that’s my opinion ATTM.
      How this disturbance tracks over the next couple of hours will be a good indicator as to how progressive the synoptic pattern is/will become….as well as seeing if the AR over Cent Calif, gets deflected south….or maybe get lifted north? Just too difficult to call ATTM.
      In the meantime, the two other main players out around -135W-140W will be content to watch and wait for at least a while.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay
    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      how march snow you got there in the 2nd photo

      • Aloha12

        ‘Much’ is the word you mean…not ‘march’. Seen this error a few times now…somebody had say something.

        • Someone else

          Holy We Cows, give the guy a break. Its not intentional, the Storm Master is theorized to use speech-to-text software, hence the occasional mis-translation. Its been discussed before, and the threads invariably get deleted because they are quite off topic for a weather blog. Get used to it, its become an endearing quality to the blog.

          Thank you…

          • gray whale

            Thank you!

            Amen

          • Upslope

            Or block him. YMMV, but my WW reading experience has improved drastically since I took that step. Signal to noise ratio at record highs.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          Others have mentioned that he may be using speech-to-text due to a disability, which is why me might consider cutting him some slack.

          • Siernev

            Happy to cut slack, but I lose a little sympathy when he starts policing content.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        There’s at least 4″+ in the 2nd, I am not there so I can’t measure exactly just basing it off the railing height.

        • Cap’n

          Yep I bet you’re well over 4 now. I’m at 4 here it’s actually pretty amazing how fast that stacked up considering how heavy it is. If this was 15:1 we’d have 7-8 feet with 15 foot drifts.

          • Pfirman

            Good point.

    • Pfirman

      You should name those three trees.

    • UrbanBizarre (Oakland)

      Was the first photo pre or post-rain?

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        The 1st was pre-rain, just before the rain started.

    • maddogokp

      Any “roof slide” on to the deck in the second pic or just “falling from the sky”?

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        all from the sky, the roof is asphalt shingles so it holds the snow in place.

  • alanstorm

    3.5″ last 24 hrs in Willits, Mendocino Co 2000ft.
    Rain/wind picking up in intensity now, if this continues past 3-4pm, it could spell trouble for many.
    Graphs:
    Upper Russian R at Hopland projected 5ft over flood stage, threatening homes & hiways.
    Eel R projected 5 ft over floodstage near Ferndale. This is no joke, as it will be flowing around 310,000cfs & starts spreading out over the entire Delta area. Many homes, farms & livestock will be evacuated.
    https https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0678a9fc5432d338995599c7fceaaaaa84e9cd233914571881ce0c42aaf5f83e.png ://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cfbb69e36cee7960438bc37cc1596d99a4f648228b26c115b45e67bd81bee9ba.png

    • Pfirman

      And my joke about the Napa River and low tide is going to backfire as they are talking King tide there.

      • alanstorm

        The tide affects the Eel Delta flood levels in a BIG way. In ’64 they had ocean breakers over the farmland!
        What time is high tide? The crest is projected around 8am

        • Pfirman

          I don’t know. It was in the link that Arnold posted about the iconic Sequoia that went down and more related to SF than Napa. I might look later and get back.

        • PRCountyNative

          Bad news, looks like around 9:45 am Tuesday. Real high high tide. Low pressure makes it higher yet, S wind makes it way higher…

  • cthenn

    Just woke up (I’m sick so I get to sleep in) to 2″ in the gauge here in Walnut Creek. And this isn’t even the storm yet?! This is gonna destroy the 3″ we got Sunday. Really worried about the 60′ Monterey Pine looming over my house once the wind picks up…

  • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

    Hit a fun mtb ride up Mother Miguel (next to San Miguel Mountain) down here in South San Diego County on Sunday https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f2733413b145e6a623abf91212f757f5251d3d2597a151d86225f28992941a44.jpg . Visibility after a storm rolls through is always impressive, but I’ve never seen it like this. Not 100% confident but pretty damn sure that we had a straight line of sight to a snow capped Mt. Baldy in LA County. If you drew a straight line, it would have been 120 miles away. Could also see the back side of a snow capped Mt. San Jacinto (no photo) as well!

  • AlTahoe

    This picture should give you a good idea on how wet this snow is. It is sticking to everything. Temp has been steady at 34F so pretty much as warm as it can get and st https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cd22e599cdaf7384db06043ea25982586211fd41fc2924c04692083fb6403877.jpg ill have accumulating snow.

    • Pfirman

      Temps have been in the fifties down here in the Sac Valley so I was wondering what you were getting. You have been getting the gamut of types of snow, including ‘none’, heh.

      • AlTahoe

        I think we could reach or exceed 3′ here by Thursday if it stays all snow.

    • Cap’n

      Round two of shoveling I’m sweating like a pig. Legitimate 2 + unplowed on the street. Right about 4 feet for storm total already. We’re going to be cut off over here.

      • AlTahoe

        Wow I think areas that are not blocked by trees could be around 18″ here already.

      • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

        You’re wife is a slacker!!!
        (For not going to work)

      • CHP just rolled around and finally shut down the upper gate on 40

    • CHeden

      So, in rough terms, SL’s are around 5,500″ near you?

      • AlTahoe

        Yeah that seems about right. Maybe non sticking snow at 5k?

    • Not the same situation up here at 7135, snow has been fine and drier since last night.

      • AlTahoe

        Man and it is going to get drier and heavier as this storm goes on tonight. You should have some incredible totals/drifts by tomorrow. Stay safe.

    • molbiol

      People used to refer to that as ‘Heart Attack’ snow since many cardiac fatalities have occurred from people attempting to shovel it. BTW this is good news since high water content is great for long term drought relief

      • AlTahoe

        Yeah and it should make for a bullet proof base of snow that should last well into spring. Luckily my snow blower hasn’t had a heart attack yet.

  • jstrahl

    .59 inches since midnight in central Berkeley, add to that .32 which came before midnight but from this storm, vs. .04 yesterday right after midnight left over from the Sunday storm, for .93 inches for this storm so far. Radar seems to indicate little rain south of the central Bay Area, the rain edge seems tilted, NW to SE.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    any idea on how much snow is at turckee airport ?

    • spencer

      i’m about a mile from the airport and i’m at ~28″ since yesterday morning

      • Storm master (Sonora CA)

        wow

        how much snow so far today ?

        • spencer

          cleared the driveway 7-8am, now back up to 4″

  • weathergeek100

    Constant warm advection rains and a stalled (I think?) cold front to our north. I think this one will overperform (for NorCal at least).

    • alanstorm

      Just as u posted I took a look at the radar & it looks like post-frontal showers coming ashore in Eureka, which means this event is ending rather quick, & front has passed. Maybe/maybe not. Someone?

  • tomocean
    • CHeden

      Looks like a close-out is imminent!

  • AlTahoe

    Here is a pic of the trees at the end of my driveway. Snow loading could be a problem in the next few hours https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/82d0bd5b5a40bb4f4982965b76e60a07d6abc2a5d63a94a0b828706a2d785b75.jpg

    • Sublimesl

      Jim Cantore is live in the Heavenly Parking lot. This must be serious.

      • AlTahoe

        Oh man I hope we get thunder snow!

        • Sublimesl

          He just said that lake tahoe is big, “millions of square miles.” oh my.

          • Siernev

            Cut him some slack. It’s the first time anyone from TWC has been west of the Mississippi.

          • AlTahoe

            Lol so true.

          • inclinejj

            Sad But True!

    • gray whale

      Hooray AlTahoe!

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    looks like snow pack could be well above normal by the end of the week

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    can boats sink ? if there too march snow on them?

    • AlTahoe

      Yep that is why the Marina’s around here make you take your boats out at the end of the season. The rich people on the lake have boat houses or garages for them.

      • Storm master (Sonora CA)

        then i think this may be a issue soon check out the smaller boats in the water still

        http://tahoetopia.com/webcam/riva-grill

        • AlTahoe

          I think ski run marina has full time maintenance people so they should be able to clear the remaining boats

    • Pfirman

      Ice in the rigging makes them tip over. Never heard of snow being a problem.

      • Pfirman

        Oh, docked boats, yeah. I was talking about boats at sea.

        • inclinejj

          Watch the Deadliest Catch? They are always breaking the Ice off the boats.

          • Pfirman

            I spent a winter fishing for King Crab off the Aleutians. During a bad storm most boats were already huddled up at Adak, but one guy, notorius for recklessness, came in the next day heeled pretty well over from ice in the rigging. Had he not been able to get in he would keeled over and that would be that.

  • Cap’n
    • Pfirman

      Time for a party, eh, Mr. Donner?

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      you may want too think about clearing off your roof soon or it may cave in with on the snow your geting you still have a long long ways too go

      • Cap’n

        We’ve got an Aframe so we’re good. But there is nowhere to put the snow.

        • Storm master (Sonora CA)

          ok sounds good please keep us up too date

        • RunningSprings6250

          That’s when the fun starts eh – pick your poison! 😀

    • HighWater

      Have you ever seen this much snow in your years of living up there?

      • Cap’n

        10-11′. Though if this keeps up I could be looking at the biggest 48 hour dump since I’ve been here?

        • HighWater

          A foot of snow since 7:00. Sweet!

        • Nate

          What’s the largest single-storm total you’ve seen up there?

    • matthew

      I feel you (lower back) pain. Just finished an hour of shoveling and I still have at least 3 hours to go.

      • Pfirman

        So nice to be retired, eh?

        • matthew

          Saves on gym memberships…

    • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

      Awesome! That is crazy snow! Be safe and keep the updates coming.

    • honzik

      Make it happen, Cap’n!

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Good comeback from a soggy weekend yeah? A lot of good coming out of this season.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      This is the most snowfall since the Feb 11 storms rolled through, that’s the last time I remember it continulally piling up for several days. Really reminds me of the 93 storms in Jan…woke up each day and looked out the window “yep, still snowing…no going out today.”

    • Wet Line(San Diego)

      Wow, that looks incredible, keep the pictures coming.

    • Thunderstorm

      I originally thought you would get 78 inches by Wednesday morning. Let’s go up a bit to 92 by Wednesday evening. Then a break for a few days and right back to it. Whats the cause of all this. Now we have the BLUE BLOB in the North Pacific with a very cold lower pressure area. 1969 with an extra boost! I think your posts to the blog are always very informative and enjoyable to read. I know a lot of people on the blog would agree. You make this blog fun!!!

    • Nathan

      Heaviest stuff looks yet to come…

      Kaboom go the propane tanks!

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    best way too get around today is by skis or snowmobile for get the car today

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      no wounder why its snowing so hard JIM is here

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      You know you’re starting off to a remarkable season when an East Coasty comes out west especially this man.

      • CHeden

        Thundersnow, at some point in time, is a distinct possibility, IMHO.
        Regardless, would like to shake this man’s hand. Have appreciated his on-air technical presentations on TWC for decades….a real pioneer. Now, they have a swarm of “specialists” who do spots “from the lab” which are OK, but lack the personal “insights” that Cantore is so famous for. If there’s anybody up in Heavenly who happen to see him, ask him to talk more about Calif. and the Pacific!
        If he wants a real challenge in forecasting, then just try the West Coast! We’re your E-Ticket ride to Wx forecasting nirvana.
        A perfect geek-spot in the making, if you ask me.
        Oh, once an hour would do.

        • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

          Agreed. Totally the type of guy where you could open a couple of beers and talk weather.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Yes strongly agree with you, always loved watching Jim as a kid and he sparked partially what goes on in my head every day now. Somebody really should have a discussion with him over that memo, and then bring it back for us to hear about on here. A personal interview?

        • mbmattcor

          Cantore and ThunderSnow is a scary site….stand back! I started watching WC in late ’82 at age 13, Jim has been a staple through the years. So shocked they are out here on west coast, but it’s because of the wx conference in SLT, mostly, but good timing, regardless.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      he’s hanging out in SLT…any truth to the rumor Al invited him to hang out on his deck to increase snowfall chances?

    • Sublimesl

      He just claimed the snow that is falling at Heavenly goes down into the Folsom reservoir. Fascinating hydrology, it jumps the crest.

  • weathergeek100

    Ski trip to Kirkwood will be valentines weekend- over a month from now. Praying that not too much snow melts and the storms keep rolling in!!!

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    any idea how much snow is at Sunnyside Resort at tahoe i cant wait too see what the deck look like when the cam clears off the snow

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      288″ ?

    • AlTahoe

      101″ at South Lake seems a bit excessive but Heavenly could easily reach that for a storm total. They are over 70″ already
      Firebreak is going to be good to go this weekend!!!

  • Cap’n
    • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

      That looks hellish, but cold.

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      wow 3 too 4″ per hr or more snow fall rates

    • Charlie B

      Can you head over to KB and wipe off the camera lens? (I know you are itching to get out).

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    am now up too 1.31″

  • TahoeCard

    Now we have another brown out in Homewood

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      how much snow so far?

    • AlTahoe

      Hopefully the wind can start kicking up to clear the snow off of the trees and power lines soon. For a blizzard warning the winds have been dead calm this morning.

  • honzik

    SCMtns update. About 0.7″ of rain so far today. Yesterday was mostly drizzly, in other words, it’s as if one storm melded into the other.

    That makes about 14 1/2″ in January alone. That puts us at just over 52″ of rain so far this year, which is very near our average of 54″/year. In other words, by tomorrow we will have a year’s worth of rain in the “bank”.

    No wonder Lexington, Vasona, Uvas and many other South Bay reservoirs are full.

    • AlTahoe

      Most places in the Sierra will be at Seasonal average by Friday as well. Crazy

      • honzik

        I would have never guessed it during September. October was a surprise and a relief (it got my well pumping again!), and it’s just continued on after that, with a little bit of a slowdown in November.

        Now that we’ve got the rain in the bank, I’d like colder storms from here on out that extend into April, for snow pack and groundwater.

      • UrbanBizarre (Oakland)

        Are you still getting snow at your spot or has it switched to rain?

        • AlTahoe

          Temp has held steady at 34F and it has been all snow. Looks like the switch over might not happen which would be awesome.

  • SolarWinds56

    Been raining in Torrance since about 10am!! This was not expected!! I’ve aready picked up a 10th of an inch and yet when I look at the doppy, it shows absolutely nothing over me. It seems to be coming in a bit early!! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cfbf86619e4ba2ace88cc8d8ea9589ebaf962ce004dfdb02dfa8ce368716a1b8.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1b13a7c0ebaca7f4220f197468b73bc76ff4fa47483010476ca47fc5d9d852cd.jpg

    • osc3_el cerrito

      Stealth rain flying under the radar…

      • Phil(ontario)

        yes here in the IE its been misty light rain for a couple hours and nothing on the radar. I love the hourly forecasts that say no rain yet it is currently raining outside.

    • SBMWill

      It’s marine drizzle low level moisture the radar never picks this stuff up.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Yikes-just got serious reports of an avalanche into homes in the Alpine Meadows area. This area is known for avalanches including one of the most deadly in US history.

    https://twitter.com/apollosfyre/status/818897800259698688

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
  • Admode (Susanville)

    A fresh 3″ of snow when I went to bed last night and .92″ of rain since midnight. At least the power’s back on.

  • Skye H.

    http://hdontap.com/index.php/video/stream/south-lake-tahoe-live

    Intense up in the mountains…moderate rain here in Marin.

  • Nathan

    Alright, taking bets on 120 re-opening.

    Remember, nearly all the precip from the previous AR probably fell as snow…

    June 20th?

    • Danlyle

      Friday 7/7/17

    • That might be a good date for Tioga. Bartshe may have a more sage answer. A bigger concern is 140 going into the park from Mariposa. The slide they had 20 years ago still is routed across the river via one-way. This one looks smaller but if you’ve driven it there’s a lot more that will need to be cleared from above before it opens (IMO). Here’s a great link with some good video and great pictures. Many of you will recognize Swinging Bridge in a lot of these photos as you click through them.
      http://www.sfgate.com/science/article/Rockfall-blocks-Highway-140-into-Yosemite-but-10845837.php

      • Pfirman

        Bartshe lives among the sage.

  • Boiio

    Looks like 3′ overnight at the house near homewood on the west shore. There’s a grill under there somewhere!! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/40bc73de23bf52a92cf46f0849b40c19da63f5116879f5d148d5d97d488afd8e.png

    • Phil(ontario)

      Snow butt crack!!! complete with love handles.

  • Valkyrie

    Just checked the latest reservoir status. Shasta, Oroville, Folsom, Don Pedro etc, show significant increases!

    http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/resapp/getResGraphsMain.action

  • CHeden

    More detail on the convection off NW coast.
    Inland, our winds are increasing ATTM, with a lowering cloud deck and light rain. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/627c8c5d2a9fed9c4153a6f402e5b37eb1ee9dfe53bc9c2d4347ceccf3bcfdca.jpg

  • Rio Rat

    Not much action here in Aptos right now,25mpr wind & .18 this AM. Maybe this low starts saying south per Daniels latest post. Just enjoying all the weather comments from Nor CA locations.

    • There’s more to come. This is a two day event.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    When was the last time California experienced prolonged periods of rain/ snow?

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      2011 was pretty epic Feb-March was filled with snow and rain. Last time I remember lots of water in the Yolo Bypass.

    • RunningSprings6250

      10/11 – it’s been so long it doesn’t seem real. LOL

  • CoachBrown

    Raining most of the night and pouring pretty much all morning. Was notified of potential evacuation of Oak Manor as the river is back up to possible 26+ level in Hopland. WU has only an inch plus in the forecast and the river is currently around 15′. Pressure is also dropping significantly.

    • alanstorm

      I’m feeling alittle better now about your flooding. It’s turning showery here in Willits. Continued steady rain is needed for such a high stage.
      That is unless there isn’t another wave of precip offshore….

  • Given very high impact nature of storm arriving imminently, I’m working on a short blog post to be published within the hour.

    • matthew

      Wait…it is not here yet? I have 2′ of snow in the “banana belt” region of Truckee that would argue differently.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        I’ve been amazed at some of the pictures Brian Hickey posted of downtown buried. And this video from Truckee Ready Mix which I believe is in Pioneer Commerce.

        https://twitter.com/BillMartinKTVU/status/818899756353081344

      • Pfirman

        Wind just this moment jumped in intensity down here in Sac valley. Rain was steady all night, but also has become moderate the last hour or so. #Sodden.

    • alanstorm

      Steady rain decreasing to showers here. CF still offshore?

  • rainingintheLBC

    Dumping here in Long Beach- it has been raining for the last few hours too. No radar returns!

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Watching the Northwoods/Northwoods cam I have seen a snowmobile towing a snowboarder, a truck almost spin out, and now a truck being pulled out of the snowbank.

    http://communityink.com/nwoodsnwoods.php

  • CHeden

    The mid-latitude low I was writing about this morning is now entering the base of the dryslot, and will be tapping into the AR to it’s south. The ridge now over Cent Calif seems stable at the moment, so the SW low should undergo some cyclogenesis then track NE and impact the coast just north of the Bay Area within the next 4-6 hrs. Winds will be steadily increasing, with possible torrential rains along the low’s SE flank. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0b34847b433c3a64ba1c068c4e62af1c67a054ea7498f53d36761c7730e835bc.jpg

    • Thor

      is it my imagination or are things speeding up a bit?

      • CHeden

        I don’t think it’s speeding up, but things are definitely starting to shift around.
        The mid-latitude low has been maintaining it’s track, with the GOA low still digging SW in back of the lower latitude low. However, the ridge over Calif. is still quasi-stable except for the buckling we’re seeing up north. There’s no doubt our conditions up here in Cottonwood are deteriorating ATTM, so the northern front is edging closer…but I think the AR is going to hold..and in fact will intensify once the mid-latitude starts sweeping in.

        • Thor

          When you say “ridge over CA”- what exactly do you mean? high pressure? (seems weird) Where do I see evidence of this ridging- WV or satellite?

    • scott

      NWS Hanford says that this precipitation that is dumping in the north is going to take a dip south after dusk and hit. Does it still look like that is going to happen or do you see it staying further north.

      • CHeden

        The northern edge of the AR is starting to sag SE now, but ever so slightly as LP digs in west of the mean SW flow. A CF with a developing line of elevated cloud tops is starting to become visible, but is only now just nudging inland near Cape Mendocino. At the current speed of the CF, the AR should still be hanging over Cent Cal for at least 12 hrs (IMHO) or until the CF pushes the AR SSE and the real dynamics/fireworks begin.

    • Thunderstorm

      Most rain ever at my location was 4 inches in 2 hours.

    • osc3_el cerrito

      Is this what happened east of HI in Sept 2016 with 2 hurricanes?

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    CHP Truckee/CalTrans is expecting to keep 80 closed throughout the day. Going to be a long line of semis backed up in Auburn and Boomtown.

  • mosedart (SF)

    Good lord, the Northern Sierra could go a full month without any precipitation before the wettest year on record, 1982/83 catches up. Unbelievable.

    https://twitter.com/PaulRogersSJMN/status/818894058093318144

    • AlTahoe

      We could get 50% of average precip from now till the end of winter and still end up at 150% above normal. This seems like a 200% or greater winter as of now.

      • osc3_el cerrito

        Could be an epic winter shaping up.

      • Storm master (Sonora CA)

        how march snow do you have now ?

    • honzik

      In one of the pictures for the accompanying article, it looks like these storms have brought a driftwood bonanza to Santa Cruz. Paging AlanStorm!

    • Thunderstorm

      With the new BLUE BLOB in the Northern Pacific should go to 120 inches rather quickly in March. BLUE BLOB now the big weather maker!

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    am up too 1.40″ of rain so far today

    all so whats new with snow reports ?

  • thlnk3r
    • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

      So good!

  • CHeden

    Just clocked a gust to 51 mph here in Cottonwood with steady winds in the mid-30’s.
    Clouds have been moving in varying directions throughout the morning, shifting from SSW to ESE then back again, sometimes changing within 10 minutes or so. ATTM, winds are out of the SE and continue to strengthen.
    However, rainshadowing remains a big problem as the coast range is wringing out the moisture very efficiently…so while everything looks ripe for a good storm, all we’re getting is the wind and dark skies.

  • Cap’n

    As indicated by dark blue on radar, snow rates are phenomenal over here. It has to be dumping a solid 2″ an hour all morning, with way heavier bursts. By the way I skied to KB and cleared off the cam: http://hdontap.com/index.php/video/stream/north-lake-tahoe-beach

    • mbmattcor

      thank you for your public service xc trip, take a tax deduction.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      I hope you went in full tuck position going down 267…

    • TruckeeLover

      We need to set up a Gofundme account for the Cap’n.

      • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

        Arghh!

    • Mike (Mill Valley)

      Looks like a nice day for a pleasure cruise to Sunnyside

    • maddogokp

      Glad you finally invested in an AT set up!

    • Gideon Low

      Already nearly covered again!!

  • Mike (Mill Valley)

    Coming down quite heavy for the past few hours.
    Please no wind though, my power just came on after two days without any after a large redwood took out a car, a house and the power lines.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    What is your favorite storm types?

    AR’s/Pineapple express
    Cut off lows
    GOA storms
    Pacific Jet stream storms
    Inside sliders
    Other

    • Craig Matthews

      GOA storms and Pacific Jet stream storms(ones that come in straight outta the west) for me. GOA storms with a strong NCRB, with lots of cold air and dynamics are my fave.

      • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

        I love those powerful GOA storms with loads of cumliform showers after the cold front.

        • Craig Matthews

          Those are most fun to watch. Especially like it when the post frontal regime is very cold and unstable, with lots of towering cumulus and thunderstorms with hail, and snow on the coastal mtns.

    • Dan weather maniac

      Massive Pacific Jet storms with strong zonal flow and heavy rain/mt snow.
      Then AR’s, then GOA’s about the same as they both have interesting features.

      I dont care for inside sliders as they often lead to dry spells after (note the lack of them this year in general and the copiuos precip we are getting so far)

      cutoff lows indicate a weak or too northerly jet so I dont care much for them either, though they do seem to help so cal sometimes

    • CHeden

      You left out “ALL”.
      Anything but Tule fog.
      I hate Tule fog.

    • rainingintheLBC

      cut off lows are fun 🙂

    • RunningSprings6250

      What is, Yanet.

    • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

      Anything that does not require orographics to drop rain. I prefer dynamic systems! Especially those with a very dynamic showery portion after the front where you get thunderstorms and small hail….

    • PRCountyNative

      1. Cut off lows are nice for the offshore winds and calm seas, hopefully with some groundswell leaking thru from somewhere. Not the cold ones as much.

      2. Warm wet storms from the southwest, often in February. You can get a solid SW swell in winter from these (NorCal), good coastal erosion – a good direction to clean out those protected nooks and crannies.

      3. Don’t like inside sliders – brrrr cold. No swell.

  • Chris Lyon

    Big red and yellow cell approaching SF and the Half Moon Bay area.

  • jstrahl

    Total in central Berkeley since midnight is up to .89 inches at 12:20PM.

    • shampeon

      1.5″ here in Walnut Creek, after 0.8″ yesterday.

  • GusLevy

    La Canada forecast for no rain until later this afternoon/evening – and radars show nothing – but if one has been standing outside for the past several hours a drizzle to light rain would have dropped 0.10″ upon you. House is up a mountain and so rainwater has been streaming down the sides of streets.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      I know we like to criticize Oxnard for their rain forecasts on this blog but they did point out the “slight chance” for precip last night for this morning.

      A slight chance of rain was added for Tuesday morning across the Los Angeles Basin as model solutions are indicating some instability working into the lower layer of the atmosphere as the weak disturbance offshore moves over the region.

      • RunningSprings6250

        Same timing and everything NWS SD added the same forecast and I have “less than 1″ snow” for today, 2″-4″ for tonight and 6″-10″ for tomorrow, hooraw!

        (then 4″-8″ additional through friday)

      • GusLevy

        I didn’t imply to denigrate anything. Just pleasantly surprised…I think all of us down here in SoCal are so used to disappointments in the past several years that days like this feel like finding that $5 bill on the ground.

        I think we were so anticipating a great winter last year that we had all the optimism for decent weather literally drained out of us. Anyway, we’re nowhere close to being out of the woods and it is only January so I am keeping my optimism under control…am cautiously hopeful tho.

  • RunningSprings6250

    37F and raining. All low level moisture as is being noted below – i can see clear blue skies towards the ridge to GVL. Usually we don’t get actual rain when the clouds/fog are this low or just barely pushing into the mountains.

    Make that 36F…

  • TahoeCard

    Over 3 ft in Homewood. Would post a few pics if I could figure out Discuss rotation thing.

    • maddogokp

      Talk to Crashing Out. He’s got some artsy approach.

    • Dan weather maniac

      try editing and cropping slighlty, save then post. works for me

  • Freddy66

    They should have done the snow survey this week. Then again….they never would have made it.

    • Pfirman

      Shows how variable that measurement can be?

  • My car is only a few inches away from being completely buried, the roof on the bottom left. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/094770e82cdac5a55e57cb927ca791c4523a502449deb25a75b88cdfebb81ee7.jpg

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Going for the insurance money I see…as a plow driver told me years ago “we have good insurance..”

    • To the left of the tree? wow

  • This drift is rapidly climbing. A driver in an Audi SUV came up old 40 late last night and got stuck half on the road trying to pull into our lot. he was just pulled out by a loader and feebly drove off on 40 to a presumably closed 80. derrrrp.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eb4f2ce10d838258f43ccacdc7e10bc8aeeace853be736b41814b41af8c5e544.jpg

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      storms like these I always found it’s best to stay parked, these are the storms that 4wd usually still need chains to get around easily. The loader drivers always have the stories about cars getting stuck and how they pull them out……and as you noted just go off again like nothing happened.

  • Dan weather maniac

    Its cranking in the east bay, my location almost 2inches now since last night and the main event not even here…I am worried about the flooding under my house, and may get some decent flood pics in the east bay hills (nothing worth sharing from the sunday storm) which I will post tomorrow.

    http://gismap.ccmap.us/FloodControl/Hydrology.html

    • jstrahl

      Where are you getting Tilden stats? I’m very interested in those, hike there a lot.

      • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

        Fire station?

        • jstrahl

          I don’t believe there is one in the park. I’d guess the Nature Study area, where there’s a park office, but that’s why i’m asking.:-)

      • Dan weather maniac

        Click on my link above. It’s in the link.

  • PRCountyNative

    FUJIWARA!

    I was going to say that earlier, I swear, but I ended up pushing snow around out in the driveway.

    • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

      It helps if you say it while lifting the snow.

    • Pfirman

      I could hear something very much like that from your driveway.

  • Nate

    It is really coming down here! Not surprised to see a flash flood warning for Los Gatos Creek.

    https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea/status/818921219915386881

  • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

    Pretty good little soaker started here about 20 minutes ago. Rain rate says .36 and wind just picked up after being dead calm all day. Not sure if this is scientific but check out the comment on the bottom right of the picture. Weather with a sense of humor!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/634cb161699a74ee061dfae75e218b390ae2987223a6a42c7676e57baf33756c.jpg

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Am I reading your rain amount correctly…….0.52″ for today?

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    update on 80 and 267 which is now closed. Pretty bad when even the snow removal equipment can’t get traction.

    https://www.facebook.com/chp.truckee/posts/1851943848350911

  • Craig Matthews

    Here are seasonal totals at this time for some Big Sur coast locals…
    Big Sur sta: 37.03″, Ave 17.78″, 16.97 atm last year, seasonal ave around 44″
    Anderson Pk: 46.07″, ave is unknown
    RAWS sta Whale Pt, 4 miles nw of Lucia(near Mining Ridge): 73.59″ !!! *one of Big Sur’s wettest locations*
    Looks like Big Sur could hit seasonal average by weeks end.

  • mbmattcor

    My folks live on us-20 above Nevada City at 4k, 33° and snowing heavily now, so the forcing/instability is dropping snow level early?

  • jstrahl

    New blog entry is up.

  • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

    Light showers here in Santa Barbara…

  • tomocean

    Lunch time run was insane! Not sure what I was thinking going out in this, but I couldn’t resist. Rain is still falling hard and water is flowing from everywhere. I had to make three knee-deep, swift water crossings which are normally dry. I’ll put together some more pics/video later. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d4e16579548a82892fe743031c59c0477eda93c5330a7c7879c2e164ad76739e.gif

  • Martin (Santee)

    I’m just over 1.5 of normal rainfall so far this rain year with more coming the next couple of days and if the storms on the 20th verifies, we be looking good!

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Is the blog down?

  • roseland67

    Does/will any of this precipitation make it into the Colorado River?

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      yes; the Rockies are getting lots of snow