Slow-moving atmospheric river may bring flooding to Northern California; generally active pattern to continue statewide

Filed in Uncategorized by on March 9, 2016 4,437 Comments

Recent storminess in the context of California’s ongoing severe drought

The imminent atmospheric river can be traced all the way back to the Hawaiian Islands. (NCEP via Scripps)

The upcoming atmospheric river can be traced all the way back to the Hawaiian Islands. (NCEP via Scripps)

After an unnervingly quiescent and remarkably warm February, March roared into California like a lion over the past weekend. A quick succession of powerful storms brought a very wide array of inclement weather conditions to the Golden State–from very intense rainfall (and associated modest flooding) and very strong frontal winds (which brought down many trees and caused power outages) in Northern California to bona-fide (and locally damaging) severe thunderstorms across a wide swath of Southern California. Double-digit rainfall totals occurred in orographically-favored spots in the northern part of the state, while several feet of new snow fell at the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada. As creeks and rivers rose in response to this much-needed rainfall, so too did inflows to some of California’s largest reservoirs in the Sierra Nevada foothills. Folsom Lake, in fact, now has above average water levels to date–and the floodgates on Folsom Dam have been opened to accommodate the additional expected heavy precipitation over the coming week.

Recent and upcoming rainfall is undoubtedly good news in a drought-stricken state. Even if precipitation were to stop falling today, all of California’s major reservoirs are in much better shape than they have been in years (though I’ll be the first to admit that’s a decidedly low bar). Sierra Nevada snowpack, while still below average to date, is quite substantial–and will continue to provide substantial inflow into reservoirs though the spring and early summer months (unlike during recent years). But although increased reservoir water storage will reduce drought-related pressure on most urban and many agricultural water users this summer, it won’t mitigate the tremendous ecological damage that has occurred throughout California’s extensive forests–which have experienced an astonishing degree of tree mortality over the course of our record-breaking drought. Nor will it directly solve the immediate water concerns of those living in certain water districts in Southern California that are dependent on local precipitation, or the long-term groundwater overdraft that continues in the Central Valley. As I discussed in the autumn, the most likely outcome of the powerful El Niño event in the Pacific was to bring partial–but not complete, or necessarily lasting–drought relief to California. What happens over the next month or so will dictate just how much drought relief occurs before the long, dry summer ahead.

 

Slow-moving atmospheric river may bring very heavy precipitation and flooding in NorCal

A respectable storm will affect nearly all of California from late Friday into Saturday. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

A respectable storm will affect nearly all of California from late Friday into Saturday. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

In the short term, though, there’s certainly a lot more water headed toward California. Another atmospheric river (or plume of concentrated atmospheric water vapor propelled by strong low-level winds) is taking aim at Northern California as I type, and will sag very slowly southward down the coast through late Friday. This particular atmospheric river exhibits an unbroken corridor of enhanced water vapor that can be traced all the way back to the Hawaiian Islands–which qualifies this event as a modest “Pineapple Express.” Atmospheric water vapor in this atmospheric river will approach all-time record values for the month of March (as did last weekend’s), so a juicy airmass will certainly be in place.

The main concern over the next few days is that this very moist plume will stall out over some portion of Northern California on Friday, potentially leading to very heavy precipitation accumulations. This is of particular concern given that soils in this region are already saturated after recent rains, and rivers are running high. Additional heavy precipitation will likely lead to flooding of at least some degree–and this could start to extend to larger rivers in addition to smaller streams if this precipitation band stalls as much as is currently forecast. As is often the case with atmospheric rivers in California, just how much flooding occurs will depend on just how persistent the precipitation actually is in vulnerable watersheds. Also, the potential exists for a pretty extraordinary north-south gradient through Friday afternoon, with some model solutions bringing more than 6 inches of rainfall to the northern San Francisco Bay Area while San Jose–just 30-50 miles away–sees almost nothing! Given these uncertainties, the National Weather Service has already posted Flood Watches for a wide swath of Northern California, and these may be expanded further.

Very heavy precipitation is once again expected in Northern California over the next few days. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Very heavy precipitation is once again expected in Northern California over the next few days. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Everyone in California will get wet by late Friday, though, as a modest surface cyclone approaches the coast and allows the atmospheric river to finally slide down into Southern California. This late Friday system probably won’t be quite as strong as this past weekend’s in northern California, but could actually be stronger than the weekend storm was in Southern California. A period of heavy rainfall and gusty winds will occur throughout most of California around the time of cold frontal passage, and a few thunderstorms are once again possible.
Yet another (slightly weaker) system will move into California by Sunday, bringing another round of widespread precipitation. Precipitation amounts (and snow levels) will be lower, though any additional rainfall by that point could cause at least minor flooding problems.

 

Prospects good for active pattern during the remainder of March

A stronger subtropical jet stream may favor Southern California for precipitation toward mid-March. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

A stronger subtropical jet stream may favor Southern California for precipitation toward mid-March. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

California will see a multi-day break in the precipitation by early next week (and, if current forecasts hold, it should be a needed break from the heavy precipitation!). There are some signs, though, that wet weather will likely return once again by the middle of the month. Model ensembles  suggest that a strong ridge will develop over British Columbia, producing a “Rex Block” over the West Coast. In this case, it appears that California may actually be in a favorable position to see an enhanced low-latitude storm track as the subtropical jet stream “undercuts” the ridge to the north. Southern California would likely fare well in such a scenario, though it remains to be seen if it actually comes to pass. It’s worth noting that decaying El Niño events can lead to very active late winter and spring periods in California, and hopefully that’s where this year is headed.

Stay tuned!

A "Rex Block" pattern may develop along the West Coast late next week. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

A “Rex Block” pattern may develop along the West Coast late next week. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

 

© 2016 Weather West

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  • click

    Lots of convection through the cajon pass, resulting in rain down lower, and huge slushy drops in the upper part. Awesome…

  • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

    Transverse ranges

  • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

    For SoCal standards these feel like some pretty powerful onshore winds today!

  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    Just now getting a light rain shower. Not much but enough to wet the streets. Wind has really picked-up and it looks to be clearing in from the NW. Oh well, at least the weather was a little exciting today.

  • WSDTLA

    My boyfriend witnessed *hail* in downtown around 4:50 today.

  • Zephyr (Crestline)

    And now thundersnow! Plus it’s sticking. Inside sliders have always been very very good to us here.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Same cell over you is about to give fellow commenter Redlands a real solid downpour.

      • Zephyr (Crestline)

        That would be great. Poor Redlands, among others down here, has gotten cheated all winter.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Yes I am feeling for Redlands as we are in the same boat.

          • Zephyr (Crestline)

            Yes, I feel bad for anyone who’s been through the bipolar ‘Here it comes!!!/Oh just kidding…’ weather cycles we’ve had this season. Especially after the insane Nino hype via the media.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Jim Cantore would be whooping it up if he was there right now.

      • Zephyr (Crestline)

        Lol true. And this is actually our second round this year, which is really rare.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        That famous video of him is the best example of meteorological joy anyone has ever been able to record besides the local out in Mariposa who loves Double Rainbows ;).

    • Crouching Dallas

      BARNDINI WE HAVE THUNDERSNOW

      • Barney

        Action has been taken.

    • Barney

      • Zephyr (Crestline)

        Haha, awesome!:)) I’ve seen the dance before but never ‘Thundersnow, the Musical’.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Redlands is about to get real good thunderstorm.

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    Line of thunderstorms rolling off the San Gabriel and San Bernadino mountains into the inland empire and foothill communities moving southeast.. San Bernardino looks like they are about to get hit! Do we have any reporters on this blog out of San Bernardino?

    • Zephyr (Crestline)

      We’re only about 11 miles and 3000′ elevation away from Berdoo. I think the thundersnow I mentioned below is the tail end of their squall line. Nice to see them getting some action!

    • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

      This is looking more towards Ontario but what a dramatic change!

    • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

      Here is more towards San Bernardino, very dark!

  • Martin (Santee)

    Heavy rain and hail in Santee!

  • Fairweathercactus

    Getting shafted out here in Whittier. Just hardly enough to get the ground wet even when it looked like it was going to pour like hell.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      I feel your pain. I’m not far from you and we got maybe 10 minutes of light rain. Followed this storm cell as it moved southeast from Glendale and it kind of petered out just before it got here.

    • RandomTreeInSB

      Well, I got nothing here in SB. Watched clouds evaporate above my head…

    • Whittier weather dude

      Hey fair weather I’m at work no rain here. If I was home I would be pissed

  • This is worth knowing-noting regarding next fall-winter. CFS corrects their SST data.
    https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/714965624854855680

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      What a freaking difference a little bug in a model can do… La Niña avenge us!

      • I hope so. No more f^cking ridges or Omega Zit’s or a permanent “4 corners” high next year…..PLEASE NO MORE Stuck sh^t that blocks/truncates rain. Wine is lubricating me. 🙂

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Lol agreed!

          • ? for anyone…last year was pretty spot on IRT SSTA and Nino 3.4 …soooo what happened to mess this up now??

        • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

          I’ll take a persistent four corners high in summer lol

    • AlTahoe

      Wow that is a lot of warm water along the west coast. You promised me a 1992-1993 winter so now I need you to find out what the Sst’s looked like in the fall of 1992. Lol

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Better summer surfing I hope!

      • I bought all of Tyler’s kayaks for thirty cents on the dollar. 92-93 or literally bust!????

    • shampeon

      The anti-blob out there in the GOA.

      • That’s actually not too bad for a RRR, just a little bit more west. The NE pacific has GOT to share their ridges, right? This forecast now kinda freaks me out. IE +PDO and La Nina.

    • craig matthews(Big Sur)

      Did this change the precip forecasts as well 😉

      • These will take a few days once the forecast initiation time gets to March 28th or 29th. We’ll see it on all the CFS long range forecasts.

  • Barney

    I’ve been checking radar down south and reading the blog and while doing so I failed to notice that it has started snowing at a pretty good clip here. Also got a nice snow shower driving to work this morning. Hey Ian, we need a snow report dude it looks like it’s dumping down there.

  • AlTahoe

    Huge anvil popped up over Tallac and had a very sharp back edge to it.

    • Barney

      Killer shot.

  • Nate Wire

    !!

  • Yanet

    yo soy “la nina”

    that is spanish for “la yanet”

  • Boots

    Hail in the western Ojai Valley.

    • Martin (Santee)

      Nice, had hail and good downpour. Another pocket coming through

  • click

    It didn’t stick around for long, but dang those flakes were huge.

    • Phil(ontario)

      cajon pass?

      • click

        Yup, I pulled off and stopped at the summit inn to take pics. Mountains around here got a good covering.

        • Phil(ontario)

          thats surprising considering we stayed dry down the hill.

    • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

      Wow!! Very definitive shape

  • thebigweasel

    Partly cloudy and calm here, with a high of 59. But over on the Mt. Shasta side, winds were a steady 40, gusting to 60 sending WCFs down to about freezing. Weed, normally the wind-tunnel town, was quiet, with light breezes.

  • Crouching Dallas

    http://www.snowsummit.com/winter/mountain-information-group/mountain-information/web-cams

    ^ Dumping with a capital D up at Snow Summit, looks like I’ll be breaking in my Cali4nia pass on Thursday. Love seeing that area with more northerly flow (no rain shadow from San Gorgonio)

  • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

    Wow incredible skies!

    • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

      Nice thunder and lightening also!

      • Phil(ontario)

        Yup. I noticed 3 lightning strikes and a trace amount of rain in the gauge. Probably could have got to .02but i missed the drops as i was running around the back yard trying to catch them

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      That bottom photo is a classic. Almost looks like a mid-west supercell.

    • Dan weather maniac

      That makes me miss my early years of living in Tucson and having thunderstorms and amazing sunsets like that.

  • Barney

    8 minutes of nukage here at the casa. It’s let up, hope there’s more.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      There’s a dragon hiding in the snow!

      • Zephyr (Crestline)

        I thought it looked rather more like Nessie of Loch Ness.

    • AlTahoe

      We had about an inch in 15 minutes here. Very strong band of snow

  • Rams (HMB/Truckee)

    18z today is pretty interesting. Trending much wetter for much of the state compared to the runs yesterday. Hopefully more to come!

  • TBinRC

    Decent amount of snow on Mt. Cucamonga and Mt Ontario after today’s brief snow. It’ll melt quick so best enjoy it while I can.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      What is the name of that peak in your photo? I have always seen this peak, but never have known the name of it. I know you mentioned two names, but I am not familiar with either.

      • TBinRC

        I always get them backwards too. This is mt cucamonga.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          Thanks!

      • thebigweasel

        It looks quite a bit like Mount Shasta seen from about the I-5 / 89 intersection.

        • Charlie B

          looks like Shastina on the right? (Of her southern cousin?). View from Weed?

  • click

    Right at sunset the skies cleared and the fresh coat of snow on the San bernardinos was illuminated perfectly. Looked like the San Gabriels got a dose too, but not as much as the berdo’s

  • mattzweck

    Nice pics from everyone. Hopefully tomorrow here in the high desert areas will get some storms here especially here where I live Lancaster.

    • DML

      Would be nice but chances are pretty remote.

  • Dan the Weatherman

    I saw several flashes of lightning to the ENE of my area here in Orange during the last 20 minutes. According to radar, it appears that there are a few thunderstorms over the Corona area.

  • craig matthews(Big Sur)

    Very convective day over the Santa Lucias.

    • craig matthews(Big Sur)

      An isolated hail shower underneath the bruised belly of one cell while out on another drive..

    • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

      Great pics! That is one defined towering cumulus!

  • craig matthews(Big Sur)

    Less mixing of the atmosphere tomorrow, more subsidence and a moist boundary layer out over the ocean after departing Low and vort Lobe. Sounds like a recipe for stubborn coastal stratus in the upcoming days esp if flow remains onshore.

  • RandomTreeInSB

    The newest CFS run in tropical tidbits flips back to El Niño. But it won’t be for long.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/714967331240341504
    Thank you Mr.Cowan!

  • redlands

    Redlands, Ca – Southern Ca got 0.19 of rain for March-29-2016 — with a gust to 22 mph — ths was a big surprise for me — Anyone else in the area get some rain

    • click

      nice, glad you got something out of those clouds. My rain/snow mix ended up putting .13″ in my gauge (top of Cajon Pass). was a pleasant surprise for me as well. hoping for a repeat today!

      • DML

        Got a little bit of mist here yesterday but temps really frigid. Hopefully today we get a little more moisture along with the cold temps.

    • Martin (Santee)

      Yeah I got 0.17 yesterday, it was a nice surprise, even hail! Wind gusts up to 11 mph.

    • Tom P (Trabuco Canyon)

      .10 here mostly overnight.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      !!

    • Crouching Dallas

      .20 in Glendale

    • Phil(ontario)

      Finally out did me in Ontario. We got skunked!

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    HRRR suggesting a chance of thunderstorms again today, this time more confined to the Sierra’s and the eastern foothills spilling over the crest. And for the south land more confined to the high deserts and mountains it will be interesting to see how many cells spill over the transverse range into the valleys and basins of SoCal.

  • Here’s a blog post from climate.gov In the blog there are reasons for the preparedness (or hype) as well as information as to why THE BEAST had problems performing in certain areas and over performing in others along the west coast. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/el-ni%C3%B1o-rapid-response-campaign-monitoring-2015-2016-el-ni%C3%B1o-land-sea-and

    • click

      interesting read, thanks for that. When they say the extra readings helped reduce forecast errors (within the 24hr timeframe), i wonder if that was actually input into the GFS/NAM initializations and incorporated as part of the ensemble, or if they were running a separate model as a control that was just an independent run.

      • They reduced error so that means reanalysis to me and not the data into the actual forecast, but running two side by side?

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Warmer day + upper level cold air from the inside slider + moisture within the inside slider moving slightly more SW? Could it be an even better day for thunderstorms. Already plenty of convection currently heading ESE into the Baja/Cali border. AFD from LA seems to be in agreement with a more convective day.

    Area forecast discussion
    National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California
    500 am PDT Wednesday Mar 30 2016

    A cool 546 dm upper low is whirling over the 4 corners area. It is
    spinning in rather cool over Southern California (-25 degrees c at 500 mb) this
    combined with the morning sunshine will destabilize the
    atmosphere in the afternoon and with a little cyclonic kick from
    the upper level flow pattern there will be an opportunity for
    convective development. A shower or a thunderstorm is possible over any
    part of l.A. County (the greatest chance is over the eastern san
    gabriels) eastern vta County and the northern mountains of vta County. There is
    not much moisture to work with so the biggest threats posed any
    thunderstorm that does form will be hail and winds. Snow will be
    possible all the way down to 4000 feet.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Looks pretty good on Radarscope, was watching the VIS SAT and noticed these cells fired up right at dawn.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • Bombillo1

      Well, 87 % of “average” overall. If the spring does not have at least 2 fair storms in it (from an extreme N.Cal perspective) I would say it is a bit frightening to be ending our rain season so ignominiously. P.S. I guess even in Arica, Chile you can sit and complain that big rain is just 500 miles away but man, look at that front stalled out there at 145 West!

      • FolsomPrisonBlues

        It could be worse. We could end it like last year. You can look at the glass as half empty, but when comparing to last year, its clearl half full.

  • Mark Miles

    .31 yesterday evening in Yucaipa

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    Hoping for another convective day across SoCal!! Popcorn cumulus clouds already making their appearance earlier and more
    Abundant than yesterday morning.. This is a good sign! Yesterday convection really fired up around 2 pm (peak daylight).

    • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

      I saw some building earlier around 9am over the riverside and San Bernardino mtns

    • click

      my office doesn’t have windows facing the outdoors, so i put up wundermap with visible satellite and sensitivity set to 0 so i can watch cloud development. gets me through until i can walk to the real windows and look outside 😀

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    Here’s a before and after photo from yesterday taken in front of my house 1 hour and 23 minutes apart from eachother.. This is an example of how quickly the atmosphere destabilized yesterday, showing how It went from partly cloudy cumulus skies to dark thunderstorm filled skies. 🙂
    Hoping for more of the same today!
    This photo was taken looking directly north from in front of my house in Van Nuys.

    • Someone else

      You mean this house?
      Doxxing you as payback for calling out Joey!

      • Crouching Dallas

        Hahahaha. As long you all know me as Crouching Dallas in your hearts and minds, I can deal with it.

      • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

        Hey!! What the hell?!? How did you get a pic of my house? Do you live across the street?! Btw that is an old picture of my house!

        • WSDTLA

          I’m thinking your photos might have metadata from your phone, probably your GPS coordinates.

          • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

            Oh! ? And how do I fix that? Also how do I view that?

          • Someone else

            No, disqus cleans exif data, the stuff wdtla is talking about. I just looked at ur picture and saw some street signs lol. Had to have a little fun today! Plus I think there’s a bunch of kayaks in your garage.

          • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

            Damn dude well props on the investigative work! Haha you should work for the NSA or FBI or something! 😉

          • Bombillo1

            He does. Better expunge those evil thoughts as well!

          • WSDTLA

            good to know!

  • honzik

    It’s fascinating to compare GFS 6Z which trends wetter and 12Z which trends dryer for the period of 4/5-4/11. 12Z has a red line at the Golden Gate below which precipitation dares not stray. 6Z is throwing more inside sliders than Sergio Romo. Why so much flip-flopping? Is the ECMWF more stable?

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      SPB maybe, and also cut-off lows are very hard to get a grip on due to the fact they are generally not connected to the jet stream and dance about or stall in places. Models have a low tolerance for them.

    • Bartshe

      dry almost always wins

      • honzik

        That’s what the 18Z is saying….

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      I use NAM. Keeps me balanced.

      Howard is thinking the westerlies may not retreat just yet…

      “From the briefing from the Climatic Prediction Center late this AM…They liked the GFS version of the MJO Phase Space currently strengthening a bit in Phase 8 and 1. The MJO will add a bit of life to ENSO by constructively interfering to the ailing El Nino which is weakening rapidly now. The SOI is -14 so there is still suppressed convection over the Maritime Continent. Once the current MJO moves through….El Nino will probably crash. The CPC expects EL Nino to be, below the threshold by the end of May. So during this upcoming month of April is El Nino Last Gasp, in its ability to modulate the westerlies through the East Pac. It appears that we may have one more Eastern Extension of the EAJ during the latter part of week 2 and the 3rd week of April. This maybe our last chance for a significant storm or two this season from an inter-seasonal and climatic point of view. . The chance is for LA as well…..”

      • Do you know or can you link which discussion he’s referring to? I’m not seeing anything for widespread precip through the 15th, even though the GFS has some honeys in a few runs.

        • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

          He always mentions his briefings from CPC but I can never find them.

          • ? 🙂

          • Thanks. I wish he’d put some of his thoughts into it. I just saw a paraphrasing of the CPC discussion. I have difficulty comprehending things so I could be wrong…

  • Bartshe

    One or two mortgage cycles left in southern Florida?
    http://wpo.st/2VlQ1

    • Well, on the bright side maybe the global SSTs will drop. Global cooling will happen but CO2 will still rise.

    • Darin

      While the Florida governor has outlawed the use of the words “climate change” (seriously), the rest of Florida is already working on as if it exists. The insurers are the most concerned as they are already considering losses due to water inundation and floods. Additionally, they are considered about backing a loan value to a property that either may not exist or may not be resellable.

  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    Looking forward to another active day here in the San Gabriel Valley. The models are trending more active than yesterday showing 500mb temps at -25c. The San Gabriels are showing a lifted index of 0 to -4 and capes of 400-600 J/KG. All we need is a good north flow off the mtns and we’ll be in business. Fingers crossed.

  • Thunderstorm98

    More beautiful cumulus couds again today.

  • Stay tuned for a special post on Friday detailing our most recent work on the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge and the risk of drought in California. This post will be a special one (much like the last one in September 2014) and will summarize peer-reviewed results from a paper that will be published on Friday in Science Advances.

    Fortunately, this paper will be available to all through an open access license–and I’ll provide a direct link in the blog post.

    • Bombillo1

      Why do I have a sinking feeling about this “risk of drought” assesment?

      • Boots

        Amen

    • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

      It will be very interesting to see how next seasons pattern evolves without el nino’s influence. Will the same stagnant drought pattern return? Can’t wait to read the article, thanks!

    • Crouching Dallas

      Congratulations on the published paper, Daniel!

      Also, I’ll go out on a limb and assume that it won’t quote Bill Patzert.

    • Bartshe

      While I’m sincerely eager to read this, part of me is whispering that the news can’t be good.

      • Rather get hit between the eyes than blown up my kilt.

    • I’m lookin’ at those articles in http://advances.sciencemag.org/ and they fly above my head in the thermosphere. 🙂

      • Bombillo1

        Xerophhobe,

        Are you telling me you don’t get this?? What an IDIOT!

        RESEARCH ARTICLE SUPERCONDUCTORS
        from SCIENCE ADVANCES

        “Real-space localization and quantification of hole distribution in chain-ladder Sr3Ca11Cu24O41 superconductor”

        • That sounds like quite the molecule! 🙂 I can pass along our title, which I think is a bit more accessible:

          “Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California”

          • Bombillo1

            Would you please sketch out the Lewis structure for me?

          • alanstorm

            I’ll take the seasonal precipitation extremes……

        • Even the Bison/Grass/CO2 paper. All I got out of that one was grass grows when it rains.

          • J Tang

            Oh no way….I need proof, data, hard evidence to convince me of this “grass grows when it rains” non-sense!
            (Doing a good job not sounding like a climate denier, don’t I?)

          • LOL it’s the 9th article down. http://advances.sciencemag.org/
            This bakes my brain. I am soooooo not smart.

    • Bob G

      No sneak previews of what is in it?

    • I can’t wait that long! Heh.

    • WanderingTattler

      It is probably really important to be widely accessible, for current and future water management. I noted that some water restrictions in some parts of CA may be eased.

    • SoCalDrought , Catalina Island

      I wonder if Hadley cells will be mentioned in the article.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I wonder if Socal is ever going to have another wet winter again, or are we doomed to dry winters for the rest of eternity due to the warming in the Arctic?

      • Brian

        Read this Dan. I think Howard’s view puts things in the right perspective of what has been actually going on with our climate:

        Solar Cycle 24-25

        “Not much has been mentioned here at Mammothweather.com about Solar in a while. The Sun completed it solar cycle 24 peak with a double peak in early 2014. At the moment, the solar cycle is crashing toward a solar minimum. What is most interesting is that this solar minimum is theorized to coincide with back to back small cycles for a Grand Minimum. One that has not happened in “about” 200 years. The next solar cycle 25 is expected to be an even smaller cycle than the current cycle 24. Deep solar minimum’s are thought by some scientist’s to coincide with minor global cooling, and wetter weather in the west. One reason for this is the coincidence of increased seismic activity and volcanism. It is a known that with enough volcanic aerosols shot up into the stratosphere, and in the right geographical locations, global cooing can occur. (Opine) As a side note, this has nothing to do with Anthropological Global Warming other than to possibly pause it for a while.”
        – See more at: http://mammothweather.com/2016/03/28/cold-upper-low-over-ca-today-bring-gusty-winds-and-a-band-of-light-snow-through-mono-county-later-this-afternoon-into-this-evening-unsettled-weather-to-continue-through-
        wednesday-then-fair-and-war/#sthash.DBEvpEpt.dpuf

        • Dan the Weatherman

          I believe that solar cycles do impact our weather to at least some extent, and possibly a lot more than people are aware of. I read sometime ago (I believe it was from Joe D’Aleo) that high latitude blocking tends to occur during solar minimum episodes more than it does during solar max.

    • Brian

      Hey Daniel, read what Howard posted the other day which is actually far more vital to what has actually been happening to our climate:

      Solar Cycle 24-25

      “Not much has been mentioned here at Mammothweather.com about Solar in a while. The Sun completed it solar cycle 24 peak with a double peak in early 2014. At the moment, the solar cycle is crashing toward a solar minimum. What is most interesting is that this solar minimum is theorized to coincide with back to back small cycles for a Grand Minimum. One that has not happened in “about” 200 years. The next solar cycle 25 is expected to be an even smaller cycle than the current cycle 24. Deep solar minimum’s are thought by some scientist’s to coincide with minor global cooling, and wetter weather in the west. One reason for this is the coincidence of increased seismic activity and volcanism. It is a known that with enough volcanic aerosols shot up into the stratosphere, and in the right geographical locations, global cooing can occur. (Opine) As a side note, this has nothing to do with Anthropological Global Warming other than to possibly pause it for a while.”
      – See more at: http://mammothweather.com/2016/03/28/cold-upper-low-over-ca-today-bring-gusty-winds-and-a-band-of-light-snow-through-mono-county-later-this-afternoon-into-this-evening-unsettled-weather-tocontinue-through-wednesday-then-fair-and-war/#sthash.DBEvpEpt.dpuf

      • SteveBloom

        Sorry, but that’s a titanic pile of woo.

      • Dan Vieira (West SFV)

        There was talk of a mini ice-age coming due to this predicted Solar Minimum, but it’s unlikely that such a minimum would bring about that level of cooling. Scientists interviewed in this Guardian article suggest at best a 0.25C cooling due to a Grand Minimum. I’ll defer to Daniel about what a quarter degree reduction in global temps would do, but my gut instinct says “probably not much.”

        http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/aug/14/global-warming-solar-minimum-barely-dent

      • Bombillo1

        I too have been reading about the upcoming solar minimum and even referred to it on these boards, but nowhere have I read any rationale for increased volcanism or seismic activity.. What would be the mechanism for this?

    • SteveBloom

      Looking forward to it!

    • Dan Vieira (West SFV)

      Please, for the love of all that is holy, don’t tell us the RRR is coming back! That added with this current election cycle in the States will make me move to a peaceful place like Somalia for sure! 😉

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    First severe cell of the day just popped up over Simi Valley.. This pic I took was taken in Encino off ventura Blvd looking west towards Simi Valley and woodland hills.. Dark clouds developing to my north, west, and east.

    • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

      Here’s one more pic looking west down ventura Blvd.

  • matt (truckee)

    Beautiful partly cloudy day in the Sierra’s. Attached is Northstar, with a fluffy hat on top.

  • yenlard

    Thunder here in northridge…. Starting to rain.

  • craig matthews(Big Sur)

    Wildflower season getting started in the Diablos. Hopefully we’ll get some wet cut off Lows in April with abundant showers. Looking like inside slider city right now.

    • Andrew

      Wow! Where is that?

      • craig matthews(Big Sur)

        Priest Valley between King City and Coalinga HWY 198.

        • Charlie B

          I’m tired of your pictures, Craig. Beach, sunsets, surf and now wildflowers. (Are there any job openings wherever you work?)

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    Starting to rain! Looks like I might get lucky with a thunderstorm
    Today!! Just my luck though it looks like it’s heading right for my house in Van nuys and I’m not home!! I’m in Encino, but it just started to rain so I’m happy anyways! 🙂

    • WSDTLA

      Lucky! I have dark clouds to the northwest, but other than that all there is to see in west la is sky blue sky… oh well I’m going home soon anyway.

    • craig matthews(Big Sur)

      Glad you guys are getting some action down there.

    • I’ll let you stick a big funnel in the top of your rain gauge…hehehehe

  • I’ve seen one strike so far but lots of thunder over the past 30 minutes in Temecula looks like the cell itself is almost here.

  • Phil(ontario)

    This cell sitting over fontana, snowed at about 4 in the San berdos

  • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

    Thunderstorm just hit my house, very loud thunder and heavy rain, but luck would have it in 10 miles away and it’s sunny and dry lol

    • Phil(ontario)

      Here is what the sky looks like over you from here in sunnyanddryville

      • inclinejj

        That just reminded me of this song..

        Saturday night – High

        Saturday night – High ‘n’ dry

        Saturday night – I’m high

        Saturday night – High ‘n’ dry

        • WSDTLA

          you reminded me of this song:

  • mattzweck

    Well I guess down here in socal we’re just going to have to deal with the expanded dry weather for awhile. Ugh. Welcome to spring everyone. Stupid high pressure.

    • xeren

      Check out the gfs 8 days out

    • DML

      Time to start looking forward to an active (cross your fingers) monsoonal season.

  • Brian

    Well, here we are folks at the end of the rainy season. So what happened? All of the hype, which is exactly what it was, about heavy rainfall and floods that was suppose to happen from Dec-Mar in Ca never happened. BA predicted we be between 95%-110% precipitation wise by April 1 was right after all. We are sitting about 99% of avg for snowpack as of last week. We will get the official survey snow totals in a couple of days, but nevertheless within the range of near to avg precipitation. So Cal did not do so well. As I have said, it’s best to err on the lower end for the higher end, therefore I’m not at bent out of shape about the strong El Niño(which turned out to be a dud) not performing like so many had falsely hoped, predicted and believed, wasting so much time to figure things out via computer models, while I was slandered and called all kinds of names last fall and early winter. Love it when we reality hits home.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I was just wondering what you saw in the early going that led you to think that the El Nino may not perform as expected? I know there is always the possibility that it may not bring the rains that often accompany a strong event.

      • SteveBloom

        I can tell you what I saw, the worst drought on record (not just instrumental, but paleo going back a millennium) associated with persistent ridging and an oceanic blob, combined with an increasingly strong hypothesis that we should expect more of exactly that as the climate continues to warm. I wasn’t bold enough to make a prediction since it was possible the El Nino might have been strong enough to break through anyway (and, per Kevin Trenberth, was not only because of a very warm Indian Ocean — although why was it so warm?), but I did know enough to question any forecast beyond some amount of more rain beyond what we had seen in the prior four years.

        Shorter: Push on the climate system long enough and hard enough, and it will push back.

        • Bombillo1

          Frankly, for me, it was the August discussions of the impending El Nino and well circulated meteorological opinion (by many in the profession) that by mid-October we would be seeing an El Nino pattern emerge. As we got closer to the October date the goal posts were then adjusted to mid-November. By mid-November the anticipated pattern change was placed at the first week of January which is what finally emerged–somewhat. For a person that enjoys analyzing probabilities it is very unsatisfying to see these things get “re-cast” like that. Kind of cheating really. Anyhow, this made me very concerned about our Nino, by Dec 1st I was uncomfortable.

          “Predictions are difficult, especially when you are talking about the future”.

    • WanderingTattler

      El Nino was not a dud. El Nino was very strong and affected other countries as predicted. SoCal is just a small area in the area that is affected by El Ninos, and had other conditions been present, could well have delivered the rain that can potentially fall in an El Nino year.

      This is what was stated by NOAA in October 2015 – However, no two years are identical even when a strong El Nino is present. There are other sources of variability and uncertainty that can impact this winter’s weather. These include background warming of the ocean and atmosphere, unique ocean temperature patterns, and other atmospheric patterns besides El Niño.

      El Nino dud or not a dud has the same probability as tossing a coin, and without understanding all the factors that make up weather, no person can claim a guess has more value than a model. Models are increasing in complexity and sophistication with each year – we have only been doing computer modeling for the last 50 or so years, it is still in its infancy. The first flight was in 1903, and today we still do not have low-orbit flights.

      • inclinejj

        Folsom Oroville and Shasta are full. Max snow melt doesn’t really start till May, depending on warm/cold April is.

        We are in good shape. We were in a dire and dangerous situation back in October-November.

      • Boots

        Call it what you will, but the affect on the entire West Coast (Washington to N Baja) was not typical of what we had come to expect from El Nino. I agree wholeheartedly that the takeaway from this season we know very little of this phenomenon and the way global warming affects it and the models are indeed dynamic and have some catching up to do.

      • MoonWatcher

        In Brian’s defense, if you had been subjected to the SoCal Media this past fall, you would understand way the term “dud”is appropriate. But “La La Land ” is the home of such brain surgeons like the Kardashians, so it’s expected.

        • WanderingTattler

          I read the hype – I saw the preparations, both in my town, and elsewhere – but I had read enough to know that nothing was certain. I agree the hype should have been better disseminated – e.g. the chance that we get flooded is just as great as the chance that we do not. Prepare for both – i.e. flooding and the fact that it may not happen.

      • SteveBloom

        That NOAA statement excuses *any* outcome. The fact remains that the super El Ninos (i.e. not just strong) like this one have produced major CA rain in the past.. The burden’s on NOAA (shout out to Marty Hoerling!) to explain why, not issue a one size fits all excuse. Of course Marty has become rather reminiscent of Bill Patzert in his persistent adherence to climatology.

        • WanderingTattler

          Nope, that statement is providing the best that they could predict – not excuses. You are talking as though everything is known about weather and all of the factors that contribute to it are understood. NOT. And the sooner people understand that, the better they will understand what is possible today. How many people and models could have predicted the RRR before it stubbornly sat where it did for years? I doubt anyone. Modeling has to continue to be refined as more and more is learned in order to be able to better understand the atmosphere, and as limited as it is now, it was far more limited 20-30 years ago. It works now in many instances – for instance a strong El Nino did happen this year, and it effects were felt world wide. Unfortunately not in a smaller area, called SoCal. Watch the video below to understand the complexity and where we are now, especially the first 3 minutes.

          https://www.ted.com/talks/gavin_schmidt_the_emergent_patterns_of_climate_change?language=en

          • SteveBloom

            I entirely appreciate the difficulties of seasonal forecasting, but I think NOAA has exhibited a tendency to ignore apparent long-term climate changes. Re the RRR, do you think it’s gone away? Perhaps think again. Certainly it appeared earlier than expected, but you can’t say it was unpredicted.

          • shampeon

            No, the RRR is not there any longer. The RRR is not the North Pacific High. It and/or the blob of anomalous warm water may reappear again in the future, but that specific phenomenon is no longer in the Pacific.

            I’m with you that the NOAA needs to be thinking about the effect of climate change into their long-range forecast, but I guess I don’t know how the NOAA could possibly factor in suspicions that anomalous setups will recur into their deterministic models.

          • SteveBloom

            It has become persistent, but will come and go. At the moment, gone, and as you say it’s not part of the summer pattern anyway. The rubber will hit the road starting next November or so.

            I agree the modeling is difficult without more data, but releasing the projections without caveats specific to the new situation becomes misleading at some point.

    • inclinejj

      Dude, May of 2011 was very wet. I know this cause I worked outside in the cold rain doing siding on my house. We didn’t work for 5 days when it was pouring.

    • Bob Anderson

      It was pretty close to a Goldilocks winter. Shasta and Oroville are full, snowpack is restored, and there was no massive flooding or damage to get there.

      Just awful, I guess.

    • FolsomPrisonBlues

      You just need to get out more. A lot of California did quite well! You must not have seen Swain’s pics that were posted of the Yolo bypass out near Sac. Not to mention how many of the reservoirs improved a great deal. If you want, we can go back to having the same weather we have had the last 4 years…

    • Thor

      “falsely hoped”- no, the hope was real. The reality is a mixed bag- from well above normal in some areas to well below normal in others…but essential water was captured and the overall situation has significantly improved from the 3 previous years. A monster? no. A dud? no…unless you wanted floods and mayhem in SoCal…then yes, you are likely to be disappointed.

    • The hype? Call it disaster preparedness. Bryan did well with is forecast.
      I’m glad you can sit on your high horse.
      Bryan would never do that.

  • Fairweathercactus

    This sums up the past 2 days in Whittier in a nice poem. I got enough drops today to make me take off my glasses to dry them on my shirt.

    The sky became dark and the clouds came in
    cold March winds blew as the sky blue went away
    Many residents got excited for the chance of seeing real rain
    The sky became as dark as night sky
    The anticipation grew as kids dreamed about seeing a full rain bucket
    The drops hit the ground but it wasn’t enough
    not even the spider who lives in the bucket was bothered
    The sky was letting down tears as it hopes for a better next year.

  • inclinejj

    Ok every time I crank up Metallica it rains a couple days later. Time for the Black CD today!

    • DelMarSD

      Love that one.

      • inclinejj

        It makes great music when your driving. We made it from Downtown Sacramento to the Oakland Coliseum in 1:39 the other day. That is going down the Car Pool lane at 75.

  • inclinejj

    You guys are starting to sound like the guys in the Old Beer Commercials. Mostly the socal’s.

    Tastes great, less filling.

    • honzik

  • DelMarSD

    Latest GFS runs are pretty damn impressive. I have a feeling that this spring will be very wet, cool, and convective. The next two months will be ones to remember.

    • low snow levels

      Am not sure what your seeing. But am see not March of any thing on the GFS for the next one or two weeks other then other cut off low but other then that I see nothing big in store. Are rain season could be done for the season

      • TahoeCard

        The 6z and 12z both show a series of storms starting next week. That’s what he’s talking about

    • CanyonKid

      Sounds like a broken record starting from this past October…

    • Patrick McGuire

      I’m a little less convinced. I have been watching all 4 runs daily now and it seems like the event on 4/4 -4/5 is now trending way north. I would be surprised if it just brushes NorCal at this point. Originally it looked like it was going to hit top 2/3 of the State. Anything after that seems all over the map. From dry to set, no consistency.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        You won’t find much consistency in a cut-off low until it’s basically on your doorstep FYI.

        • Martin (Santee)

          I am still hopeful, I got 0.17 of rain and hail on Tuesday from the last cut-off low, but I know you are right and might not get anything.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            Leave it at that so the surprise is you do get something ;). Cut-off lows generally when in the correct placement can be more beneficial to us than the average storm system. On the other hand if they park over the 4 corners and too far inland we may see less precipitation and more wind.

      • Martin (Santee)

        I see something for SoCal on or around the 8th and again on the 14th?

      • jstrahl

        The 12Z looks better than the 6Z, actually.

    • Jeff

      I sure hope not, I’m fully done with the rain and ready for springsummer where it’s always dry and I don’t have to plan things around the weather… One of the perks of living in CA…

    • jstrahl

      12Z looks fairly decent, actually, better than the 6Z. Hope you’re right.

  • DelMarSD

    I have a question. Say there is a severe storm like the one below. The storm obviously contains very heavy rain. But does the part of the country that the storm is in matter? Do higher Precipitate water values actually make the rain harder, regardless of the radar image? Say, for example, the cell is in Wyoming, where the PWAT is .6 inches. It is still very heavy rain. Say that same cell is in Florida, where the PWAT is 1.8 inches. The same cell,with the same radar reflectivity. Will the high moisture make the hourly rainfall rate higher in Florida, or is radar imagery standardized with rainfall rates?

    • T’storm

      That is in Minnesota.

    • mosedart (SF)

      I grew up in Albert Lea, MN, the town in the bottom left of that image. When I was a Jr in High School a tornado ripped right through our neighborhood and pulled our windows out and ruined our roof. Luckily it was just touching down at that time so we didn’t get the full brunt. The town nextdoor, Glenville, MN wasn’t so lucky.

      A lot of crazy weather in southern MN, I miss watching the storms roll in over the plains.

      • Thor

        Blue Earth County! My Grandfather and his 7 brothers grew up there and still a lot of my relatives call it home. Good country.

        • SteveBloom

          Blue earth, aka scraped up and pulverized Canada. 😉

          • Thor

            ? meaning glacial till?

          • SteveBloom

            And lots of it, as far south as Des Moines.

            Of course, relative to a geologic time scale, our agricultural practices are washing it away in an instant. More blind stupidity. Yay humans!.

          • Thor

            you must be a blast at parties.

          • SteveBloom

            I am! 😉

          • mosedart (SF)

            There’s a big glacial esker right in Albert Lea that you can hike to/on.

    • Utrex

      The answer to the best of my knowledge is this: PW values are ingested by the storms.

      High PW values make supercellular thunderstorms become HP (high precipitation) supercells because of the very moist environment. Updrafts take in very humid air, making supercells very moist themselves, or HP supercells. Generally, PW values over 3 are enough to induce HP supercells.

      Classic supercells, or normal variants, occur within values from 1.5 to 3.

      LP (low precipitation) supercells occur below PW values under 1.5.

      For your question, the storm becomes more moist if it moves over Florida, because it ingests air with increased moisture. Thus, it will indeed produce heavier rain than its dry counterpart.

    • thebigweasel

      Location plays a role. Is the land hilly or flat? Sea Level or 5,000 feet? Is it warm at ground level, or cool? Air rising or falling? Lots of factors–location is only one.

    • Radar reflectivity can mean very different things in different contexts. Sometimes radar echoes are not even capturing precipitation–occasionally, it’s birds, bats, bugs, smoke, dust, hail, or etc. Even if the echoes are capturing real precip, however, it’s may be capturing precip well above ground level. In many cases, precip at ground level is much weaker than aloft as much of it evaporates on the way down as it falls through dry air. This is common in California for much of the season and more generally in desert/semi-arid regions. In humid subtropical locations like Florida, though, the whole atmospheric column is typically pretty moist and little precip evaporates before hitting the ground (thus the equivalent radar signal often signals stronger ground-level precip in humid areas).

      • DelMarSD

        Thanks. That was exactly the response I was looking for. You learn something new every day.

  • Phil(ontario)

    The official snow pack report came out today. While some areas were as high as 97% normal, and have a snow pack 53 inches deep, the overall snow pack for the Sierra Nevada is at 87% normal. Not bad considering December and February were so dry.

    • Patrick McGuire

      Actually here in Central Cal we had a 2nd half of December that produced some cold systems and got the snow pack up to about average by the end of the month. I even remember Daniel commenting on that a few months ago.

      • jstrahl

        Indeed. Berkeley rainfall for December was just a touch above average.

        • He’s referring to the Southern Sierra and SoCal

          • jstrahl

            I was adding to the response, which was originally to phil)ontario).

    • Bartshe

      I disagree.

      It’s bad because:
      (1) the worst drought in 500-1000 years,
      (2) we just had one of the strongest El Ninos on record and it did not produce
      (3) warming is in full swing,
      (4) and we probably just saw the new high bar for epic snow in the Sierra.

      I could go on, but maybe it’s easier to just put lipstick on this pig and say “squirrel!” as the next weather system comes in.

      • MoonWatcher

        What? 500-1000 years? Source please.

        • SteveBloom

          Google can be your friend. If you somehow missed this, you haven’t been paying any attention to climate science for the past year. Plus of course it’s been mentioned many times on this blog.

          • MoonWatcher

            Really…Google?

          • SteveBloom

            Really! Do click on the link provided to see how.

          • SteveBloom

            You’re welcome then.

          • Jeff

            well the 3rd result from your google search contradicts most, seems like a minor blip in time compared to the past

            http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_24993601/california-drought-past-dry-periods-have-lasted-more

            so why the contradictions between different studies??

          • SteveBloom

            No contradiction. Those long megadroughts don’t include anything comparable to the last four years.

            What those megadroughts do tell us is that such things are common for California even without increased CO2. Be worried. Be very worried. Maybe even consider doing something about it.

          • Jeff

            well yes, the megadroughts were far worse than anything over the past 3 or 4 years

            I of course agree that california needs to seriously invest in water resources for the future

          • Just because things have happened before in Earth’s distant past, that doesn’t suggest it’s good news if they happen again today. Earth’s past climate has featured both ice sheets over present-day California and tropical rainforest in the Arctic…

        • Bombillo1

          Tree ring data. I like it because it is a very “unspun” metric for rainfall history. Still very much used today by foresters to determine soil classes for timber growing analysis.

          • MoonWatcher

            Wouldn’t this depend on the tree’s location?

          • Bombillo1

            All rain measurement is taken from a specific location. What you can get is readings from multiple areas and get a darn good idea of regional precipitation history.

        • This is accurate–precip deficits unprecedented in 100+ years; snow deficits unprecedented in 500+ years; precip+temp anomalies unprecedented in 1000+ years. I’ll have more in my post tomorrow.

          • MoonWatcher

            Looking forward to it. Thanks.

      • Bob G

        Not sure about some of this. A La Nina might bring more snow than what we have accumulated this year

      • Thor

        How can you say it “did not produce” when parts of the State saw significant precip- much more than the 3 previous years (combined?). The 2 largest reservoirs at 110% of historical average…and snow pack significantly better than last year.

        It didnt produce as expected in terms of location and severity but their was significant precipitation on the west coast this year. Perhaps you meant to qualify that by saying it didnt produce for SoCal.

        The question is what would it have been like if there had been no ENSO in place?

        • SteveBloom

          Basically an average year for NorCal, nothing like what was hoped for from a super El Nino. That’s a failure to produce. The larger trend is very bad indeed.

          • Thor

            Even that is not totally accurate – Redding, Cresent City, Eureka are all well above average. 2 largest reservoirs well above average.

            But even an average year after 3-4 very bad years is a vast improvement and an indication of production.

            Failure to live up to expectations and emotionally invested hype is not the same as failure to produce IMO.

          • SteveBloom

            NorCal overall. There are dryer spots too.

            It very much was a failure to produce based on super El Nino climatology. No after-the-fact rationalizing, please.

          • Thor

            yes, based on a sample of 2 it did not produce identical results. But its not “after the fact’ rationalizing to look at the FACTS and see that production was significant…if not not what was “hoped” for. Its just irrational to look at Shasta reservoir today and claim it was a bust.

          • jstrahl

            It was NOT based upon past events, but upon dynamic global models.

          • RandomTreeInSB

            You’re acting as if a strong El Nino is the only chance for above-average precip. Just because this el niño didn’t deliver, it does not mean that we’re doomed for below avg precip forever.Our most recent wet year was a La Niña year.
            ENSO isn’t the only influencer of our weather.

          • Bartshe

            No, but strong El Nino was a higher probability chance. Of course it will snow again, but it’s easy money down on the fact that there will be fewer big years, and less overall come each April 1.

          • RandomTreeInSB

            Snow-wise, yes. Precip in general? Maybe, maybe not.

          • SteveBloom

            Hope spring eternal! Good luck with that going forward, and I do mean good luck.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            I certainly hope you are correct in that you don’t think we are doomed to have below normal precip forever.

        • Bartshe

          it did not produce meaningful relief to the previous 4 years of extreme drought

      • Tom P (Trabuco Canyon)

        Statement 2 and 3 are true. The rest highly questionable.

        • Bartshe

          1 is fact, 4 you can certainly debate, but time is on my side.

          • Tom P (Trabuco Canyon)

            1 may be more factual than 4, but if you can point me to evidence I’d appreciate it. I’d agree there are portions of CA which may be in 500 year drought. But how extensive is the area? As for 4 I’d like to hear Daniel’s idea on this. I think these predictions are very hard to make, especially with CA ragged precip seasons historically. I can see the snowline gradually rising, with the elevation of highest snowfall rising. Yes there is a possibility the switch has flipped and the climate here massively and suddenly changed in the last few years here. But it isn’t “probably” at least until I learn much more and see more evidence. I’d say more likely is convulsions of change with variable results. Anyway looking forward to Daniel’s post tomorrow.

          • Bartshe

            Griffin, D., and K. J. Anchukaitis (2014), How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41

            Belmecheri S, Babst F, Wahl ER, Stahle DW, Trouet V. 2015.
            Multi-century evaluation of Sierra Nevada snowpack, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42

            sorry, can’t provide full pdfs

  • Don’t kill the messenger.

    • Bob G

      It has been trending this way for awhile. The weeklies don’t look good either. Oh well, what can you do? April is a tough month for the models to grasp

      • Here’s something to hold onto.

        • Greenland….yikes

          • SteveBloom

            Sun angle still too low for big melt, fortunately. Same thing starting in a month or so would be a different story.

          • Bartshe

            yes, in the process of becoming fully its name

        • Bob G

          CFSv2 Anomaly doesn’t mean no rain, it is predicting less than average which isn’t much in April. Hope the pic verifies and actually beings meaningful precip

        • mosedart (SF)

          Looks like a good time to go sunbathing in Greenland

    • Bombillo1

      Xero,

      You are certainly not to blame here. To what address may I send the pipe bomb?

      • I’m certain the NSA has your address by using those two words together. I’d hang tight ’till they ram your door in.

        • SteveBloom

          This would just be domestic terrorism, which seems to have a degree of 2nd Amendment protection, so probably no worries..

        • Someone else

          Yup, he is now on the watch list

          • Bombillo1

            They have been watching for years to no result. I use a high grade aluminum foil (Reynold’s) for my outer- ware.

          • Bob G

            Lol

    • mosedart (SF)

      Meh, these things are completely unreliable. Just a week ago it had all of CA as extremely wet in April. There’s really no such thing as a monthly forecast and this model is proof of that.

    • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

      We can still get cutoff lows, even into May

    • I’m grabbing the Pitch Forks!

  • Bombillo1

    Well I must say all these model runs for the past 8 days showing rain on the 3rd and 4th then the 7th and 8th etc have all disappeared into the ether. This is very disconcerting to go from the 3rd week in March until October 15th ( a very likely scenario now) without a significant rain. That is honestly what we are looking at. Get those fire insurance policies current. I dread this.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Did you just forget about the monsoon season? Unless you’re in NorCal maybe, the southerners aren’t done yet. We’ll likely get 2-3 cut-off lows between now and the end of May, then a pretty warm summer after that, wouldn’t be surprised to see the summer marine layer return thicker this year with the change in SST’s. Monsoon season is about all I can think about at this point. April is my last ounce of hope for more rain and then I call it quits on the season. Onto the next one.

      • Bombillo1

        I do hope for good monsoons for you folks. I’m about 80 mi south of the Oregon border so I would have a better chance of raising avocados here than seeing a monsoon. I am at huge risk here in evergreen forests.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Makes sense, you guys are unfortunately less influenced by the SW monsoon. :/

    • TahoeCard

      Disappeared where? Still there. The 18z is even more bullish on the precip for week 2.

      • Bombillo1

        I am looking at the Eureka, Santa Cruz, Nevada City to Big Bend quadrant for the next 10 days and there is nothing more than a chance of .01 rain accumulation in any of these locations at the 240 hour mark. This does not look like “significant” rain as I would judge it, as what we here are accustomed to receiving in the Spring. . I would like it not to be so but that is just how it is looking right now. BTW, the flying carpenter ants are now mating (a mid April event normally), fruit trees blooming off etc. In years past we would have snow under the pines still, but none for 2 months now.

  • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

    My grandfather sent me this picture of the hail from the thunderstorms on Tuesday from Norco. It kept hailing more than this! He also told me there were some very close lightning hits and very loud thunder.

  • CHeden

    Not sure why all the hard-core doom and gloom. A cut-off low off SoCal with convection written all over it, will finally pivot inland after hanging out off the coast for a few days somewhere around the 7-8th. The GFS has been variously showing this feature pushing in anywhere from the 4th to as late as the 8th. The low will be a slow moving affair, so confidence is low how much precip will eventually fall…anywhere from sprittzles to heavy dowpours. After the low finally ejects, a series of transient ridges set up over the Pacific that starts driving GoA energy towards Calif. in a series of what look like classic Spring systems sweeping in at least through the end of WK2. 16 day precip totals look good for almost all of Calif…plus they will have some cold air to work with..especially towards the start of WK2.

    • jstrahl

      Why the hard core doom and gloom? It’s the Weather West comments section, what else? 🙂 Thanks for this good analysis, again!

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Shhh CHeden 😉 don’t go spoiling the fun some of us have been keeping an eye on!

    • Bob G

      Will any of this result in significant precip?

      • Brian

        There very simple answer to your question is no. CA’s rainy season is rapidly coming to an end. Remember Bob, traditionally Ca rainy season is from Oct 15 thru April 15. That’s how our climate always worked here on the west coast.

        • CHeden

          Baloney.

          • Brian

            Baloney what?

          • Crouching Dallas

            Bologna, Brian. Bologna.

            I’d tell you “you’re drunk, go home” but you’re likely both of those things already. Best keeping to spamming us with blog updates that we’ll read anyways. Cheers!

          • Brian

            I don’t drink or take drugs. Never even had a cigarette in my life. I’m always sober. Thank you Crounching. What happened to my boy Bandini? Seem like he disappeared without a trace….

          • Pfirman

            Nope, he’s here under a new moniker.

          • tomocean

            The rainy season does not have a cutoff date of April 15th. It isn’t like tax day. We can, and normally do, get rain up until June in most years.

          • Brian

            You’re missing the point. The official wet season for Ca goes from Oct 15 thru April 15. That’s just how it is in a Medditerreanean climate regions.

          • tomocean

            I’m not sure you really have a point. Just because we have an “official” season, does not mean that rain does not happen outside of those boundaries. I’m done with you.

          • flyboy45

            Climatology is hardly Baloney. The temperate zones in which California finds itself are almost never influenced by classic cold frontal systems after April 15th. It’s just a fact. Yes, in the past summer the Pacific tropics did influence Socal to a point but it’s largely up to moisture advection west from the SW monsoon to give the Socal mountains and deserts and Southern Sierra a measurable rainfall event. Love that monsoon however as does everyone from Albuquerque to Tucson to Palmdale.

        • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

          For the traditional significant rains yes, but we can still enjoy cutoff lows with thunderstorms. Highly variable rain senarios won’t really drive up the average of the area as a whole, but that doesn’t mean it can’t still get a convective scenario.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          LOL, but no.

          • Brian

            It’s true, LOL.

        • Bob G

          While April doesn’t generally see much in the way of precip. It isn’t unheard of. We once got 3 inches of rain the last week of May.

          • Brian

            That’s rare when you look at historical data and statistics for the state. Hence, some years yes and some years no.

        • Thor

          I have skied fresh powder in the Sierra in May.

          • Brian

            Don’t see that happening this year.

        • xeren

          Brian, you’re confusing “smaller chance” with “no chance”

          • Brian

            Not at all. You folks are the one’s said it was going to be excessively wet winter and spring while I rained skeptical all along.

      • From the looks of it, it is possible.

    • CHeden

      Edit: Upon further review, the low/rains in SoCal around the 7th looks to have sub-tropical origins feeding up up into SoCal in the form of a plume from the SW. Not out of the question a minor tropical depression will form out around -135W? Below, the GFS is showing the remains of the tropical wave with what looks like a weak AR starting to feed extra moisture eastward. Could be interesting.

    • Brian

      This what you have been saying would happen all winter and NEVER materialized. Yea, I’m still waiting for that break thru of the westerlies that you and Daniel Swain said would happen back in Dec. So where is it? Still waiting. Where are those BIG storms we were supposed to have? Here we are April 1st and our snowpack has been only just near to avg.

      • RandomTreeInSB

        k.

  • Bob G

    Howard in his very brief Thursday update States the SSTs are rapidly cooling and therefore it is going to be June gloom season along the coast for years. I wonder what he means by that?

    http://mammothweather.com/2016/03/28/cold-upper-low-over-ca-today-bring-gusty-winds-and-a-band-of-light-snow-through-mono-county-later-this-afternoon-into-this-evening-unsettled-weather-to-continue-through-wednesday-then-fair-and-war/

  • Brian

    Howard’s update and listen carefully to what he says regarding the cooling of the Pacific Ocean and it’s likely affects upon the west coast climate
    during the Summer months over the next few years:
    http://mammothweather.com/2016/03/28/cold-upper-low-over-ca-today-bring-gusty-winds-and-a-band-of-light-snow-through-mono-county-later-this-afternoon-into-this-evening-unsettled-weather-to-continue-through-wednesday-then-fair-and-war/

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      This ties into my mention of the summer marine layer coming back with a vengeance this summer. I expect the classic summer set up to happen, where the coast (6-10 miles from the beach) has cloudy cooler days and the inland interior will be warmer than average. It will likely be a boring cooler and more overcast June along the coasts with warmer sunnier days inland. July will likely be the same except the monsoon season will be flipping the switch around this time for the deserts, inland mountains and foothills to have their thunderstorm action. August will likely be very cool with an even deeper Marine layer than June. September is always in question, but chances are it’ll inevitably be a hot one.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        Looking at the Bay Area micro climate it will be interesting to see if the fog pushes into the East Bay. The last few years summer fog hasn’t pushed that far into the East Bay past the East Bay hills. I know many wouldn’t mind seeing the early summer mornings of fog reaching Walnut Creek, Concord, San Ramon areas. I am sure a lot of the vegetation would appreciate it.

        • CHeden

          SST’s right off the Bay Area are in the low to very lo 50’s….coldest in several years. Fog should be extensive if this trend continues..plus extra-windy through the delta. Another key metric that things are changing rapidly at the moment.

          • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

            Sounds good to me, although the wind doesn’t sound great for boating on the delta and more importantly summer fire season. I am also curious to see if this summer in the Sierra will be cooler, I am sure Al can back this up but a temp hitting the high 80s or near 90 was rare up until the last few years.

          • Brandon S

            Does this mean more cool delta breeze summer nights for Sacramento? That would be very nice

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            It’s all in the little things I swear.

    • I don’t like the Marine Layer. It ruins my Astrophotography sessions with my Telescope.

      • J Tang

        Ruin my solar panels making energy too!

      • mosedart (SF)

        What kind of equipment are you working with? I’ve always been an observer but now starting to get into astrophotography as well.

        • Orion 10″ Dob on a motorised Equatorial amount and a G3 deep sky camera for the eyepiece.

          • CHeden

            Sweet. Next on the bucket list.

          • mosedart (SF)

            I have a meade 10″ Dob. How much was the mount?

          • $1,500

          • Tuolumne

            Losmandy?

          • Atlas EQ-G Computerized Equatorial amount.

          • shampeon

            One of the few cool things about last winter was stargazing practically every night with my boys.

          • Yep. It was crystal clear for most of the winter nights.

      • WarmEpoch4California

        I hate the marine layer with a passion. Boring ass gray clouds that don’t drop any rain and keeps things boringly cool in summer. I’d much rather get a summer like the last two with the warm SST and occasional monsoons and EPAC hurricane remnants. BOOO to La Nina!

    • DelMarSD

      Interesting.

    • Dan weather maniac

      I love June gloom. Bring it!

      • WanderingTattler

        Ditto.

    • Juggernaut

      Can someone explain why that creates June gloom?

      • WarmEpoch4California

        Low level moisture that forms as a result of lame cold ass water meeting warm land . It keeps the beaches too cold and often in really bad years (like that non-summer of 2010), we don’t see the sun at the coast for days, yet no rain falls. Such a waste of cloud cover. Bring on last summer’s monsoons and EPAC remains. Let it be sunny or let it rain! I hate continuous overcast without rain. Better yet, I prefer sunshowers and thunderstorms with a lil bit of humidity. I should just move to a tropical climate before this La Nina ruins our summer.

        • malnino

          Yes, you should move to a tropical climate, until you start bitching about the heat and stifling humidity and pine for the days when you had to endure those god-awful, depressing summer days in the upper-60s along the California coastline … be strong.

        • Juggernaut

          Does the water drop in temp that much or is the air getting considerably warmer or what is the change for this year?

  • Bob G
    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Almost reliving when this documentary came out. ;D

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    18Z GFS is getting delicious to the eyes…

    • Wow–certainly is! That would be one heck of a start to April in SoCal…

      • DelMarSD

        It certainly would be.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
      • honzik

        I’d love this, by the way. I think there are plenty of aquifers that could use recharging by a long rainy season. Plus, I’m been struggling with some new trees in my orchard from the drought. Many places up in the Santa Cruz mountains apples and pears can go year round without watering, but the drought is hard on them particularly the new ones. Breaking down and watering them helps, but attracts gophers who eat the roots, even though they’re in gopher baskets.

      • craig matthews(Big Sur)

        Now this would be so awesome if this happens in the real world. This would produce widespread convection across a good portion of the state, perhaps severe storms in some areas. Looking at the trajectory of those Lows, Northern/Central Ca including my area gets places in the NE quad of Lows/systems a few times, placing central coast under veering/steering se to ese flow around those dynamic Lows moving toward Socal. Perfect for interior type convection drifting out over the coastal areas. Also, I really like how all the action starts around hour 180, not hour 288. Is the ECMWF on board with this run? I wanna believe it’ll happen, esp for socal this time, but really, I’ll start to believe when these model storms get into the window of NAM.

        • Exactly these lows start at the central coast and slide southeastward into a position south of the point conception and puts all of southern california in a favorable zone of lifting. I have seen set ups like these before and we will just have to wait because cut off lows are so unpredictable. Not to mention a subtropical tap and a higher sun angle could spice things up.

          • craig matthews(Big Sur)

            The pattern depicted by that recent GFS run reminds me a little bit of the first 2 weeks of April 2003, which were quite active, as several cut off Lows developed off the central coast and drifted toward Socal picking up some sub tropical moisture. Here’s a sat pic of just one of them.

    • honzik

      18Z is such a tease…

    • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

      Please, I can’t take anymore!

  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    Next week will be one of extremes according to the AFD from NWS Oxnard. They’re predicting temps near 90+ for the L.A. basin and valleys on Wed (4/6), then the very next morning, Thurs 4/7, the possibility of light precip lasting through Sat and maybe into Sunday. Sounds more like a summer monsoon storm….but wait, isn’t this April? Crazy if it comes to fruition.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Where did you see this in the AFD? LA Basin is going to have a tough time even reaching 85 degrees next week according to models and forecasts?

      • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

        From the long term:

        TUE/WED LOOK QUITE WARM, ESPECIALLY WED. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF THE AIR MASS AS WELL. THE GFS HAS 950 TEMPS IN THE MID 20S CELCIUS BY WEDNESDAY WITH LAX-DAG GRADIENTS IN THE -3 TO -4 RANGE. IF THESE PARAMETERS PAN OUT LOCAL HISTORICAL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES SUGGEST VALLEYS AND INLAND COASTAL PLAIN NEAR 90 (PERHAPS EVEN WARMER)

      • San Jose is expected to reach 90 on Wednesday day, it is possible.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Ahhh it is, I was mixing up AFD’s lol. If it works out, this will lead to a greater chance in severe activity during any thunderstorm pops. Should be an interesting storm system…

  • mattzweck

    When we have el nino. it feel alot more warm and moist down here in socal especially in the high desert were i live in Lancaster. And the last time we had a la nina we had above average rain fall. Here.

  • RSpringbok

    Two years ago it was the (hot) Blob in the Pacific Ocean. Now it’s the reverse — Cold Blob!

    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.daily.anom.gif

    • FolsomPrisonBlues

      It looks like a lot cooler temps all over the globe. Not nearly as much red on that map as you would have seen even just 6 months ago. I hope we get a La Nina. Maybe it will mean some cooler winters! =D

  • Andee Clark

    Okay, so I think we all remember the graphic from earlier in the season depicting where the jet stream should lie at the peak of the El Nino charged atmosphere. The other shows where precipitation went…. I know no one is all knowing and can’t predict the future, but come on. I want to fast forward to next year, then I think we will have our answer as the climate disposition of the western US for the coming decades. But I would like to hear what everyone has to say about what they think the future holds for us.

    • Bombillo1

      Daniel has relayed that tomorrow, Friday, there will be a link provided here to the public presentation of his research paper entitled:

      “Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California”

      I will feel considerably better informed about your posit after I/we get a chance to read this document. These boards have been filled with well intended conjecture about all this for months but it is now time to step aside and let someone that is well credentialed in this business have his say. These boards will definitely be interesting after this.

      • Pfirman

        I did not know Nevada did so much better than California. Is that so? Of course that is relative as the average precip is lower generally.

        • Charlie B

          Eastern Nevada did very well. Even Rrno received much more rain and snow than normal. It is relative, but higher Eastern Nevada mountains get a lot of snow…Rubys near Elkins average 400 or more.

    • jstrahl

      The future? CHAOS! That’s called “accelerating climate destabilization.”

  • mattzweck

    I still think the lasting effects of this el nino will be felt even through next year. up here in the high desert areas where I live in Lancaster we’ve been getting annoying fly’s already. And it is barely even April. Lots of bee’s this year also.

    • Dan weather maniac

      Well the bees are a good thing at least.

    • click

      That’s wierd, I’ve seen a lot less bees this year. I expected them to come out in force when my fruit trees blossomed, usually there is an audible buzz and visible cloud around them. Not so this year. Been thinking of getting my own honey hive to fix that.

      • Pfirman

        Not the beesness here, but I am in Bozeman and there is virtually no snow on the valley floor. It did snow today, and some graupelish stuff, but nothing stuck. Kind of like South Lake Tahoe.
        If you do get bees, know there is a huge difference between a beekeeper and a beehaver.

        • click

          I grew up in Bozeman! I was there mid February and the snow on the ground was doing a rapid retreat at the time, nights were barely hitting freezing and day time highs were in the 50s. It did rain/grauple while I was there one of the days, but like you are seeing nothing stuck.
          There was always a lot of variation in the winters growing up there, I can remember times when snow stuck around into may, and when there was virtually no snow all winter in the valley.
          At any rate, enjoy your trip!

    • inclinejj

      Actually we have had El Nino conditions for 2 years. The water outside the gate is plunging. 49 to 52. Will have more reports Saturday when the salmon season starts

  • Here are some pictures of the strong thunderstorm cell that rolled through yesterday evening. Unfortunately I didn’t get any lighting shots.

    • craig matthews(Big Sur)

      I like those. Did you get any hail outta that. 4th pic down looks a bit haily with those streaks.

      • I didn’t as the storm was weakening at that point but people in French Valley (a place a bit north of here) were reporting hail. Also I couldn’t get a picture of it correctly but there was a very distinct funnel shape that came down about half way from the base looked like a funnel cloud but there wasn’t that much shear yesterday. Also to the right of the last pic there is a real nice lowering.

        • craig matthews(Big Sur)

          I see that lower could in that dark belly. Pretty cool. Was that line of convection created by the Lake Elsinore convergent zone?

          • Yep.

          • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

            That convergence zone can fire some mean thunderstorms

          • I can reacall it fired at least 5-7 severe thunderstorms from a period between July- end September.

          • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

            Yes I remember also! If the flow is right they can spill into the valleys also

  • Hey “805 Weather”! I was holding my breath but got dizzy looking at that gif and and fell down. ?

    Is there away to s-l-o-w it down??

    Who else is waiting for the 00Z to propagate?
    ????????

    • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

      00z looks good! ?

      • jstrahl

        12th, 13th, 16th look good!

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Lol sorry, I had to ramp up the speed of the .gif in order to create a smaller file size.

      • you can take the output and stick it over here and slow it down. You may need to load each frame though. So like many things with twitter you compromise . http://makeagif.com/

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          I’ll have to try that out with the next .gif I create. Thanks!

  • craig matthews(Big Sur)

    Signing off. Having a good evening everyone. May the future models bring more good news.

  • So, generally speaking, are we feeling like we’re done with the rainy season? I’m too tired to figure out what all the models mean. Can a smart person clue me in?

  • Brian

    Official Sierra snowpack reading for Ca is at 87%. Certainly better than last year, but the long drought continues. Well this is absolute proof that not all El Nino’s are the same. See report below:
    http://www.breitbart.com/california/2016/03/31/drought-watch-snowpack-solid-no-end-sight-water-shortage-relief/

    • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

      Thankfully your hunch solved the mystery of our dry El Niño.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      You mentioned above about the “nonsense that Ca was going to receive flooding rains between Dec ’15-Mar ’16”, and yet many El Nino years have featured flooding rains, especially moderate to strong events. Was there something in particular that you noticed in the summer or fall weather patterns leading up to this winter that made you believe that it was going to be dry this year? You turned out to be correct, and I am just curious to know what you may have seen to lead you to this conclusion.

    • srfrgrl1

      “You” tried to tell us? All you did was quote BA/Bastardi…it wasn’t “your” analysis. Then you flopped all over the place (much like the models), merely regurgitating (or linking) other people’s ideas.

    • e e

      Back in Fall ’15: Cautious notes by Howard & Bastardi in addition to temperature anomalies in the Indian Ocean, lack of defined cooler pockets in a +PDO eastern Pacific, SST thermal maxima entrenched over 140W, widespread -SST anomalies SE of Greenland were all “red flags” that did not exist during Fall ’97. I remembered that you and a few others on this board pointed out the “red flags”. Stay strong.

      • Re WxBell please explain why their analog Pioneer models failed. Joe would take a flooded Ca over a hot relatively snowless I-95 any day any time any where from anyone. WxBell long range forecast was for a wet west coast. Show us a model from any world weather service that forecast a dry SoCal. Bryan was forecasting within the ‘safe zone’ all season. Why? Because it was snowing most of the season in his back yard. Last year there wasn’t anything to blog about but what may happen 16 days out.

        You both seem to love love rubbing everyone’s nose in it. Keep it up.

    • Sublimesl

      I was skeptical due to the dry fall, which wasn’t like the pattern in the past two El Nino strong events (nor was that the pattern in any wet year). Was told a dry Fall had nothing to do with it. Ok, I believed that at the time, but now wonder if the two aren’t connected.

  • Here are some highlights of the pictures I have taken over the past year

    • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

      Love the T-storm pics!!

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      I’ve got some shots I took back during the monsoon season of 2009. They look awfully similar in ways.

    • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

      Great pics!

  • DelMarSD

    NWS SD:

    “THESE CUTOFF LOW FEATURES AROUND OUR LATITUDE
    DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR MAKE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DWINDLE. EXPECT
    MANY MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE BEFORE THURSDAY
    COMES. ANYONE TRYING TO NAIL DOWN THE FORECAST DETAILS RIGHT NOW FOR
    LATER NEXT WEEK IS ON A FOOL`S ERRAND.”

    That may be true, but I really like the direction the GFS is going. Hope it stays that way, but no one can tell with these things.

    • yenlard

      The 6z has lost its mind

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      !!! This is a fair warning from the NWS itself !!! Let the flip flopping begin.

    • Martin (Santee)

      Been happening all winter.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    CHeden, 06z GFS shows that progressive springtime stormy pattern entirely in the long range you had mentioned. Best way to look at it is the overall setup across the Central Pacific, and what storms have the quickest route to the west coast with any upper air obstacles.

    From watching the model runs over the past 5 days it seems that the sub-tropical ridges that move from west to east are the forcing mechanisms for the cut-off lows. This means we should be seeing evenly spaced systems that get between the ridges crossing the mid latitudes. Also this is especially favorable for cut off lows to get pockets of tropical energy inside of them, creating a more unstable environment especially if the lows origin is colder upper air and it deepens while moving into the mid latitudes of the pacific.

    Spring is a great time for an uptick in cut off low development specifically right off shore to the west. On occasion we can have a spring system spawn up right above Hawaii and head right for California.

  • Here is April for El Nino’s >+1.5 since 1896-97 year.
    Past performance does not guarantee future results.
    It’s just analysis. Does it suggest? Sure. Does it guarantee? Of course not.

    • Sublimesl

      If we were to take this seriously, we’d have to figure out why central Tennessee gets so much rain during El Nino springs.

      Of course, if we’ve learned anything from this year, its that the broad ENSO state is just one factor among many, and this year has proven that those “other factors,” are very very relevant this year. Known factors, known unknown factors, and unknown unknown factors (thanks Rumsfield).

      Thanks for chart though.

      • Some of the Tennesee and Penn/Jersey/Long Island is from 82-83 I believe. I could do an individual April for each and then see what was up. You’re right it’s a small sample size.
        Here’s all previous 20 years of >+1 Includes moderate El Nino’s

        • and last 20 weak to mod >+.5 to < = +1.5C

    • AN50

      Ya, I wouldn’t put much faith in this given this year’s phenomenal failure to live up to the past.

      • I don’t either. It’s just analysis.

      • AlTahoe

        For this year we just have to flip Seattle with LA to get the correct results

  • Barney

    Ohhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!

    • Looks like hype to me! :)) BRING IT!!!

    • RandomTreeInSB

      Bring it! But…uh… did we get April fooled by BA?

    • weathergeek100

      Stop it with the porn! These words are turning me on. When was this written?

      • AlTahoe

        Has to be the March 2011 series.

    • matt (truckee)

      Nooooo!!!! It’s Spring dammit! I want warm and sunny!

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    I approve of this bullseye… & may it only get bigger.

    • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

      Everyone wash your cars and no cleaning rain gutters!

    • Tom P (Trabuco Canyon)

      Love the yellow spot on the Santa Ana mountains! Wish it would come true this time!

    • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

      April Fools!

  • CHeden

    Good analysis, 805. I agree (obviously) that one of the reasons for the change towards a more progressive pattern is that the upper levels in general are starting to become unstable (as is typical in Spring), and therefore are becoming less influenced by near surface conditions/effects. With still ample thermal energy below, the decreased stability aloft should allow for improved water-air teleconnections and vertical transport (lift). As we’ve seen this Winter, the low level AR’s and such were not very effective in bringing widespread precip to California with heavy precip confined to coastal sections. However, on those occasions when we did get some mid-level energy come our way, usually on the backside of sagging AR’s like in early January, then we saw more “typical” precip patterns sliding inland from the coast.
    What is making the change the GFS is depicting so freakin’ interesting, is how next week’s Rex Block breaks down, with the southern low slowly lifting NNE over California as the blocking high to the north rolls over and starts shifting east. It’s at this time that the progressive nature of the pattern starts to setup with a possibly potent GoA low from the west slamming into the juicy remains from the departing RB low (see GFS @168 hrs out). Obviously, a lot of dynamics would be possible should the RB low’s residual energy get enhanced by a Pacific low coming from a different direction (WNW). The last time we saw this rare track of a low moving up towards SoCal early in the season was last year (Dolores, et al?). While the origins of Dolores and her breatheren and our Rex-Block low are quite (but not totally) different, it would appear the NE tracks off California are both anomalously similar. Our SEN still has enough juice left in the battery to make the most of our brief Spring-time stormy period, of that I’m confident…but how much moisture can get wrung out and exactly where the track ends up is best determined after a couple of Scotches and a little imagination. There’s no doubt why any responsible forecaster want’s no part of making a call at this point in time….just too many variables going on.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      It’s a really beautiful set up to those who can actually see what we are talking about, these are the spontaneous cut-off lows we consistently need in order to go out with a bang. Convective, rapid growth and longer lasting effects… They also pave the way typically for more systems to come in behind them. It’ll be interesting how things shape up over the weekend and beginning of next week, a lot more good variables than bad variables in these types of set ups. Something that seems to have been the opposite for every other system this season. & great point about the low level AR’s that have made landfall this season more along the coast and how during spring that can change for the better for us.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Area forecast discussion
    National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California
    924 am PDT Friday Apr 1 2016

    Long term…(mon-thu)

    There will be a significant spike up in temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday due to the offshore flow. Highs should reach the middle to upper 80s across coast and valleys.

    Latest model guidance which originally showed the upper low parked off the socal coast towards Baja California stalling. Therefore have pulled probability of precipitation out Wednesday and early Thursday. However…both the GFS and Euro models are in better agreement moving the upper low into the southern part of the state with plenty of cloud cover. Have added chance probability of precipitation for Thursday night into Friday for l.A. County…with slight chance probability of precipitation for areas to the north. Temperatures will be much cooler on Thursday…possibly over 10 to 15 degrees cooler. Still along way away…and cutoff lows that move in from the southwest are tricky to forecast. If the low does move in over the region…snow levels will remain quite high due to more subtropic nature of the moisture source.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Daniel’s new blog post for those who have been waiting. 🙂 http://weatherwest.com/archives/3996

  • hermit crab

    I’m still in shock. Woke up to absolutely pouring rain. Been steady for at least 8 hours. Would be worried about flooding if the dry ground weren’t gratefully sucking the water in. April miracle!

    Well, April Fool’s Day miracle…

    • move over to the updated blog… 🙂