Shift to more unsettled weather pattern across Northern California, but no major rain events on horizon

Filed in Uncategorized by on October 13, 2014 565 Comments

Recent weather summary

Warm, dry, and occasionally windy conditions have been the rule across most of California over the past two weeks. While California is certainly no stranger to early fall heat waves–in fact, coastal parts of the state are famous for them–the early part of October was remarkably warm even by local standards. A slew of cities from the San Diego area all the way up toward the Mendocino Coast set daily high temperature records during the first half of October, and San Francisco had its warmest start to any October on record. Fire danger has been extremely high due to ongoing exceptional drought conditions and weather conditions favorable for fire spread, but somewhat remarkably major fire activity has remained low in recent days. Away from the far North Coast, where 2+ inches of rain fell during September, any moisture that had been deposited earlier by September precipitation has long since evaporated.

A fairly deep trough has developed off of the West Coast of North America, which will move inland this week. (NOAA/SSD)

A fairly deep trough has developed off of the West Coast of North America, which will move inland this week. (NOAA/SSD)

 

Unsettled weather on the way for NorCal, but no big storms on the horizon

A pretty significant pattern change is on our doorstep this evening as the strong West Coast ridge weakens and is displaced southeastward. In its place, a relatively strong trough will dig southward off the California coast on Tuesday, eventually bringing moderate precipitation to the North Coast and light precipitation elsewhere across most of Northern California. Despite some early indications that this system had the potential to bring more widespread significant precipitation, the necessary dynamics unfortunately have not materialized.

The GFS suggests mostly light precipitation in NorCal this week, except for 1-2 inches along the far North Coast. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

The GFS suggests mostly light precipitation in NorCal this week, except for 1-2 inches along the far North Coast. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

As a result, it looks like nearly all precipitation this week won’t make it much further south than the I-80 corridor–perhaps somewhat further south near the Bay Area. Precipitation from this first system should actually be considerably less than that received during the September system in most places, with only around a tenth of an inch for Sacramento and San Francisco. The mountains and foothills may see up to a few tenths of an inch, and the far North Coast could up to 1-2 inches.

A second system later this week may bring more precipitation to the state, and some of the models suggest that rain may be a little more significant and make it a bit further south that with the first system. However, the models have been struggling with this pattern change (not an uncommon occurrence during the transition seasons), and the general trend has been toward a drier solution as each system comes into short-range focus. Thus, prospects for widespread significant precipitation from either of the two systems this week are low (with the exception of far NorCal, where some favored mountain regions could pick up 2-3 inches over the next 7-8 days). A primary benefit of this week’s system will be to decrease fire danger considerably across much of the northern half of the state, which is good news after what has proven to be a long, tense fire season.

 

Prospects for the rest of fall (and beyond?)

Seasonal forecasts are always tricky in California, though now that we’ve reached mid-October it may be possible to offer some modest insights about what’s likely to occur during the next two months.

The CFS is currently suggesting an enhanced likelihood of a dry November in California. (NCEP)

The CFS is currently suggesting an enhanced likelihood of a dry November in California. (NCEP)

The official CPC forecast and recent CFS model ensemble projections both suggest that November will be drier than usual across most of California, and the CFS suggests that December may also be fairly dry. Despite some attenuation of the record-warm northeastern Pacific SSTs in recent days, much warmer-than-average water remains, and this may continue to exert at least a modest influence on atmospheric conditions for as long as these anomalies persist.  A weak El Nino continues to chug along in the Pacific, but the dynamical models forecast little strengthening though the winter, so it appears that strong ENSO teleconnections won’t play a role this winter.

While the upcoming pattern is not conducive to the kind of heavy precipitation-bearing systems that could bring drought relief to California, it is nonetheless nice to see the return of some zonal flow over this part of the Pacific (as opposed to the persistently “blocked” storm track associated with the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge over the past couple of winters).

The CFS model projects wet conditions during DJF 2015. (NCEP)

The CFS model projects wet conditions during DJF 2015. (NCEP)

The North American Model Ensemble suggests dry conditions over California during DJF 2015. (NCEP)

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble suggests dry conditions over California during DJF 2015. (NCEP)

However, it’s still too early to say whether persistent ridging will return later in the season. NCEP’s CFS model has been consistently suggesting the possibility of very wet conditions in California during the January-February-March 2015 period. Despite some excited discussion in the blogosphere about these long-lead projections in light of the ongoing extreme drought, it is prudent to point out that at the moment the CFS is an extreme outlier in the new North American Multi-Model Ensemble. That is to say: 7 of 8 models depict dry conditions in California during December-January-February, with the CFS being the lone model projecting (very) wet conditions.  As I’ve pointed out before, model skill for winter precipitation in California at 3+ month lead times is still pretty low, so I wouldn’t put too much stock into any of these forecasts. But it certainly bears repeating that there is presently no sign of meaningful drought relief on the horizon–either in the short run or long run. For now–enjoy what raindrops do fall this week!

 

© 2014 WEATHER WEST

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  • Xerophobe

    Seems to be some calming of the ONI max anomalies. CFSv2 is lagging, again. NOAA needs a CFSv2.1. hehe It’s interesting…at least to me to click the link then the image that is posted here and scroll down to see all the models and their forecasts. http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

  • Ian Alan

    The weather has been so exciting I just couldn’t resist posting a picture of our first, frost! LOL I was actually quite surprised as the temp was 46 when I left the house and li and behold frost on the roofs of my daughters school. It’s an open flat area less than 1/2 mile from me at basically the same elevation but I believe the lack of trees and larger flat area allows colder air to pool (when there is a lack of winds).

    And sorry for the bad picture :/

    Running Springs 6250′ the school is more like 6100′

  • tblog

    Has anyone been following the possibility of there being an El Nino Modoki in the Pacific this year? From what I understand, this type of El Nino creates a lot of ridging in the Pacific and is created when the warm ocean waters form mainly in the Central Pacific instead of off the coast of South America as in a typical El Nino. In looking at the GFS runs for the Pacific, it seems there is a lot ridging in the Central Pacific, right where the main blob of warm ocean SSTs in the Pacific seems to be centered. This ridging seems to be blocking a lot of storms that would otherwise make it to California. Will this mean a dry winter?

    • Utrex

      Not all central pacific El Niños produce dry winters for California. Sometimes a trough can form in front of the ridge, located over CA leading to a wetter winter. During dry winters the ridging forms closer to CA which creates a dry pattern for us. Comparing to the last few months, models are starting to wane on the modoki signal.

  • Kamau40

    Well, the jury is still out regarding the upcoming winter. Despite the different SST gradient setup out in the Pacific Ocean, the precipitation signals can still go either way(wet or dry) or maybe just avg. Read BA post from today:
    https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe

    • Bob G

      Thanks for the post. Lets hope for a wet winter. Your post got me thinking, Remember the winter of 2010 or 2011. Cant remember the exact year but it was the La Nina Winter where we received alot of rain and snow almost up to June. That winter started slowly. I was wondering what the long range models were predicting for that year and what the amosphere was like, favorable or unfavorable.heading into winter,

      • Kamau40

        2010-11 was a strong La Nina season with a temporary switch to a positive phase of the PDO. We had record rain/snow all the way to June ’11.

        • Bob G

          I tried to look at the multi-model ensemble to see what they predicted that year but the archived models don’y go back that far

    • Dogwood

      I wonder how or why he presented the analogue seasons as 76-77 (not good) and 03-04 (a little below avg)?
      Did I miss his case? Ridging similarities? Seems yet unknowable.

      • Kamau40

        Don’t know why he used 76-77 as analogue season. During the 76-77 season we had just transitioned from a -PDO phase of the Ocean to the positive phase at that time along with a Modoki El Nino. There are no comparisons because this year we have neither going on.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          I have been hearing 76-77 thrown around as an analog season as well from more than one source. The PDO turned positive in the summer of 1976 and from looking at Los Angeles weather records, it appears that it takes almost a year for the atmosphere to react to a change in AMO and/or PDO. For example, the fall and winter of 1976-77 weren’t very wet, but the season ended with a very wet May and there was a storm (likely hurricane remnants) in August of 1976 that brought significant rain to Socal. This past January the PDO turned positive, but the weather didn’t seem to be affected by the change as it remained dry all season, because there wasn’t enough time for the pattern to react to it. This year, we should feel the difference, and this recent pattern of the Gulf of Alaska low may be the first signs of it.

          • guest

            so what you’re saying is, we are potentially not boned, because the 76-77 analog had the PDO change too late in the year and ours will be juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuust right, not too early(wet or no snow) and not too late(misses the coldest part of the year). I swear if we get hosed with atmospheric rivers and fluffy cold powder packed storms I might not even seek contracts out, just spend all winter shredding. Will 2014 be the winter of bottomless powder? Can we have just one more season before we all get cooked from a potential double El Nino? That would suck, 4 years of this dryness would be bad enough for people and businesses to pack up if they even can.

            Has anyone ever researched the growth of Death Valley? Like, how much more inhospitable the land around Death Valley has become more like the namesake wasteland. It would be an interesting thing to chart geologically, see the progress on what is happening to the American Southwest basins. I get the sensation after some recent flights in the region that California is just on an inescapable course…

          • Xerophobe

            Dan, I’m gonna concede and give you your +PDO for this year. 🙂 76-77 followed the footsteps of a strong La Nina and even though the PDO was very negative in the 75-76 vs strong positive 76-77. Check out http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ it’s not the be all end all, yet it’s another quiver to have to compare rain seasons.

        • Xerophobe

          Both CFSv2 and JAMSTEC are showing modoki for the winter/spring.

      • Xerophobe

        I’ve been pondering this all day and looked at the SOI patterns, very different from 76-77 to 14-current. Still who knows, Yet this is big difference between the two, I believe. BTW your WWotW pic was the post of the season here! IMHO 🙂 …So I don’t think 76-77 as far as precip comparo to 14-15 will be a worry…but again I’m a loose cannon.

    • Utrex

      Last time I heard 2003-2004 held above-normal rainfall for NorCal and average rainfall for SoCal.

      http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/compday.kOpgRofjrE.gif

  • Bandini

    Dumpage for Mt. Hood! http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=45.37344755100048&lon=-121.69562911599968&site=all&smap=1#.VEdDTGd0zIV
    It’d be really nice if this event sags just enough south to hit at least the Northern Sierra. Mt. Shasta will probably see some good snow as well.

  • Sierrajeff

    Red sky at night, sailors’ delight; red sky at morning, sailors take warning… well it was a beautiful red sky this morning in San Francisco, and I’m taking it as a sign that wet weather’s on the way – fingers crossed!

  • lightning10

    The forecast discussion sure is long for a boring forecast.

  • lightning10

    For anyone who is missing the cold and the good old days of winter found some classic video of a more active time in So Cal weather.

  • Xerophobe

    For the past three days SOI is in the strong negatives and forecast to stay this way for some time. Maybe this will be the spark?! Haven’t had as many consecutive negative days (11) since late June and obviously the long string in late Feb thru March.

    • Sierrajeff

      I’ve noticed the same thing, and am curious at the lack of comments on it. It seems like a big negative streak in the SOI is often a precursor (in correlation, if perhaps not causation) of kelvin waves to reinforce the eastern Pacific warmth.

      • Xerophobe

        Yeah, me too, yet there was really just a lot of vacillation or stagnant index numbers unless a cyclone happened to wander by near Tahiti, to mention something that wasn’t doing much, I guess. WWB’s that tend to cause a kelvin wave to downwell and migrate east, are not SOI dependent. (I think…as I admit I have enough knowledge to make me a very loose cannon).

        I’m sure you’re aware of this site but here it is. Looking at the archives you can look up months and cross-check with seasons and rainfall.

        https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/

        There’s also a ginormous thread on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum under “2014 El Nino”, A few pretty capable, knowledgeable folks seem to do nothing but obsess and report SOI multiple times a day every day. Good knowledge there but a lot of gleaning to be done to gather other info than SOI reports.

        • guest

          setting dials to maximum glean!

          • Xerophobe

            LOL, I have found MANY pearls on that thread, though. Your comment for some reason reminds me of Star Trek setting phasers for maximum stun… 🙂

  • Charlie B

    As a long time reader, but first time poster, with a (largely) non science background, and just enough knowledge to be dangerous, I have to wonder about the utility of comparing past rainy seasons and extrapolating them to the upcoming one. People refer to models at the 384 hour range as “fantasy land” after all. That is 16 days out of my math is correct. I distinctly remember a Reno forecast discussion of Dec.30 or 31 2007 saying that the first 2 weeks of 2008 were going to be dry and then on Jan. 5, 2008 a levee of the Truckee Canal broke during a very heavy storm and flooded 600+ houses in Fernley, Nevada. While the rain/snow/snowmelt didn’t directly cause the break, it certainly played a major part.
    It simply seems to me that we really don’t know what is going to happen this year, and when we make predictions they are educated guesses, with the emphasis on the “guesses” part.

    • Sierrajeff

      As a fellow largely lay reader, I share your… shall we say bemusement at some of the posts here. Almost every day there’s someone waxing enthusiastic about a forecast 10 or 12 days out (“if that trough moves a little further south…”), only to be dashed on the rocks as the target date approaches.
      But that said, there’s the classic difference between “weather” and “climate”. Those 384 hour forecasts do seem to be essentially meaningless… whereas we can look back at years worth of climate data and see that if the PDO is in such-and-such phase, and the El Nino/La Nina is in yada-yada stage, then “X” is likely to occur. It seems the main issues right now are figuring out some of those inputs (such as, “exacly what sort of El Nino environment *are* we having?”), but if we knew those inputs then we’d actually have a pretty good level of confidence in the overall seasonal prediction, if not the day-to-day forecast.

      • Charlie B

        The difference between weather and climate is an interesting one. I liken it to the difference between mood and personality. I live in Reno. It can rain like the dickens here. That’s weather. Over the year, it largely dry. That’s climate. In the same way, someone with a happy disposition (personality) can have down days (mood.) Simplistic, I know, but I am a simple person.
        So let’s compare two particularly nasty winters. 1951-52 and 1968-69. These were notable for not only lots of snow, but lots of LOW LEVEL snow. I researched this a bit in college. In late winter 1952 Baxter, at about 4,000 feet in elevation, had 8 feet of snow on the ground, according to the measurements relayed to the Sacramento Bee by the highway department. Blue Canyon recorded on the order of 500 inches for the season, and a train was stranded up there for a few days. 1968-69 wasn’t quite as bad, but rough nevertheless. So what conditions were present in those years that made them so cold and nasty? We’ve had wetter years (I lived at Squaw Valley the year of the 1982 Alpine Meadows avalanche, and that was a big snow year but not a big low level snow year—the El Nino year of 1982-83 was wet and warm as well, which stands to reason.)
        I want to experience a winter like ’51-’52, when during one storm Tahoe city received 4 feet of snow in 24 hours. I just want to do it from my living room in Reno and then go up to check it out after the roads are clear :).
        Back to my day job now.

        • craig matthews

          Were you in Reno in the winters of 1972-73 and 1992-93. Our family cabin above Nevada City was buried under 6 feet of snow during both those winters. And early December 1972 the temperature at night got down to below zero for over a week. NCDC data shows 1951-52, 1968-69, 1972-73, and 1992-93 to all be the record holders for snow depth up in areas between Nevada City and Quincy CA, elevations between 3000 and 4000ft on the west slope of the Northern Sierra. It is interesting that those were all “El Nino” winters. One can argue that perhaps the PDO being in its negative phase in conjunction with El Nino teleconnections might be the reason for the cold wet conditions and low snow level event in CA during those winters. However we have observed oceanic/atmospheric oscillations set up very similar to those listed winters during other winters when California ended up warm and dry. So basically, the weather just does what it does. And the best educated guess is still just an educated “guess”, and nothing more.

          • Charlie B

            I was in Reno for the 1992-93 winter. Reno itself recorded about 50 inches of snow (twice average) but areas just west of town received much more. The Caughlin Ranch area was just being developed and it was buried. I remember new homeowners walking around dazed and confused as they gazed at the radio antennas that were the only thing sticking out of the snow in their driveways. That winter was in the middle of a long drought and I heard it caught new Tahoe homeowners by surprised as well.

          • craig matthews

            Awesome you got to experience that winter too. Thanks for the report of that winter up in your area.

      • alanstorm

        Also, the odd behavior of the jetstream during this drought crisis & recent alarming record heating should serve to throw a monkey wrench in “X”. Add Chicken or the egg scenerios of self-reinforcing feedback loops involving pools of warm water feeding an RRR, etc. I think posters are expressing hope at anything that shows coming rain. After watching that monster ridge practically ruin the state’s ecosystem, hypothetical possibilities are a welcome change.

    • inclinejj

      Charlie

      Welcome to the board. I think we are lookie loo’s on every blog for a while before we start posting.

      I remember the storm you are talking about also.

  • mycoholic

    ECMWF is trending wetter. The 12z looking pretty juicy a mere 84 hours out. Still not a big storm, but could be the Bay Area’s biggest so far this season. I’m crossing all of my fingers and toes. (P.S. The model data on Wunderground is a bit wonky. Anyone know what time period this image is displaying? It usually displays the 3 hour precip accumulation, but does this weird thing where it flashes to a longer period of accumulation every so often. Maybe 12 hours? I can’t tell.)

  • mycoholic

    I’m liking that the ECMWF is trending wetter. The 12z shows pretty good precip a mere 84 hours out. Its not exactly a soaker, but it looks to be the Bay Area’s biggest rain so far this season. I’m crossing all of my fingers and toes.

    (P.S. The model data on Wunderground is a bit wonky. It usually displays the 3 hour precip accumulation, but does this weird thing where it flashes to a longer period of accumulation every so often. Can anyone tell what’s being displayed here? Maybe 12 hours? I can’t tell.)

    • Utrex

      EMCWF is indicating bombogenesis with the low, creating a powerful punch to WA/OR/CA. A whooping 980mb low.

  • mycoholic

    Gah! Sorry for the double post (and triple image!). Disqus be trippin’.

  • Heads up: NCEP, the ECMWF, and Environment Canada–among others–have lost their satellite observation data streams today. If this persists for more than 12 hours or so, it may begin to substantially affect operational forecast quality of the global numerical models. It’s unclear exactly what has happened, but it’s fairly surprising that this has happened at all the global monitoring centers simultaneously:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/22/weather-service-stops-receiving-satellite-data-issues-warning-about-forecast-reliability/

    http://mashable.com/2014/10/22/national-weather-service-satellite-data-goes-dark

    • I’ve had reports that several radio stations groundside have been knocked off the air and are blaming a solar flare.

      • That seems pretty unlikely to be the cause–NOAA’s Space Weather Center isn’t reporting any major geomagnetic storm activity, and the satellites themselves appear to be fine. There problem appears to be with the communications link between the modeling centers and the satellite streams themselves…

        • I haven’t heard any corroboration for that report. Probably the station owner just didn’t want to admit his maintenance was lacking…

        • Dan the Weatherman

          There have been a number of M-class solar flares during the last 48 hours, although there hasn’t been any CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections), according to SpaceWeather.com.

          • alanstorm

            After the weakest period of solar activity in 100 years, we’ve recently begun a very active one and, presto, a major change to this disasterous stuck pattern. I’m just saying…….

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      According to the article, this has been happening since 0 UTC 10/22. Makes one wonder just how well initialized the current model outputs are.

    • craig matthews

      So, I guess when satellite data comes back available to those models, then they will return back to their drier forecasts for CA? I’m just being sarcastic, sorry.

  • Bob G

    http://mammothweather.com/
    Howard has his update regarding winter.

    • xeren

      that gives me hope for the winter! i really hope the PDO keeps rising

    • Kamau40

      Thanks for posting Howard’s post which is exactly what I was about to link. Looks like you read my mind. I actually support and agree with what he says, which makes a lot of sense and some of which I have also shared in the past.

      • Bandini

        Howie knows his stuff. He not only uses models and data but more importantly a strong sense of intuition/experience living in the Eastern Sierra over a long period of time. I’ve scored some good powder days over the years by reading his blog.

        • SlashTurn

          ^+1

        • Kamau40

          That’s right!!

      • Bob G

        Hope Howard is right. I like the West Coast satellite picture he links on his page. Looking at the latest pic, I haven’t seen that in awhile. I big low coming down from the gulf of Alaska and the west being RRR free.

    • Kamau40

      Two very important elements Howard mentions are as follows, which adds strong support for a good winter ahead for Ca are as follows:

      1. “The SSTAs off Baja are at historically high levels since 1949. This would provide fuel for the storms to act upon this winter.”

      2. Snow cover is rapidly increasing over eastern Siberia giving support to a -AO winter. That tend to provide more meridial flow or blocking….”

      – See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.jQlm9rRx.dpuf

      • I’m not sure how SSTs off Baja California are relevant for winter precipitation in California? Prevailing flow is from the west and north.

        Also, persistent blocking patterns are risky since they tend to favor persistent weather extremes. The last two years have featured frequent blocking associated with the RRR and extremely dry conditions! It’s true that a stuck meridional pattern in a different position could have a wet outcome for CA, but the AO mode of variability tends to be more relevant for eastern North America and Europe than the West Coast.

        • Utrex

          I did some extensive research on these SSTAs. It looks like it can act as a coupled El Niño. JAMSTEC even gave it a name: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/e/about/press_release/20140425/

          Another study shows the SSTAs can propagate southwestward and fuel a central-based El Niño here: http://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/etd/5351/

          Perhaps Howard was being broad about the storms being fueled and he ultimately meant the SSTAs help the El Niño to mature, leading to “fueled storms”.

        • Kamau40

          1. Warm SSTs off Baja Ca. can certainly help to energize storms during the winter months as they approach the West Coast. Even with the flow being west or north, the evaporation increases with more clouds and moisture .
          2. The AO is one of several global tele-connections that affects pressure systems in the Northern Hemisphere. True, the AO phase does primarily affect Eastern N.America and Europe more than the West Coast. But, given the fact they do impact meridional flow patterns and or persistent blocking patterns throughout the Northern Hemisphere, the phase can have some indirect impacts on our weather pattern during the winter months. On the other hand, the two chief global tele-connections that affects the West Coast based upon historical records are the ENSO/PDO phases. Moreover, since they are both in complete different phases compared to the last 3yrs, it should result in a much different weather pattern for us this year.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            I agree with you that warm SSTS off Baja and even off our coast can help to enhance rainfall especially when storms take a more southerly track with a SW flow over Socal as there is more evaporation with warmer waters. Storms during El Nino years tend to have a lot of subtropical moisture that comes from the tropical Pacific closer to Hawaii and other nearby areas as the subtropical jet couples with a southern branch of the polar jet, and the SSTs off our coast here in Socal are usually warmer than normal during summers with developing El Nino. As a result I imagine that even some of the moisture associated with some of these storms probably comes from areas closer to home as well.

          • WatchTooMuchLost

            Would warm SST’s off the coast of Baja mean that it would be more beneficial to the Baja California/Southern California weather and chances for rain?

        • Xerophobe

          Specifically, yes. Baja has had +SSTA’s in strong EB ENSO. But over all this whole area inside the green triangle is weird warm especially N of 20 (Hawaii) for an ENSO event?? Even N of New Guinea and in China Sea (not shown) SSTA’s should be cooler in an ENSO? Maybe not categorically, but I sure can’t find anything close to match somewhat the state of the SST’s in the North Pacific.

          • craig matthews

            It is almost as if an El Nino ‘ish oscillation in the SSTA’s has occurred in that green trianged area when observing the SSTA animation for the last 2 months, as there appears to have been a couple of subtle eastward shifts in that warm pool from New Guinea to the NOAM coast. Somewhat similar to surface obs of sub surface kelvin waves in the green triangle, which I thought only occurred along the equator. But that’s just the way my eyes have seen this development. Any ideas what might be the cause? I’ve got some ideas, but I’d rather here it from you or anyone that could shed more light.

          • Xerophobe

            If there’s an active phase in MJO that’s ripe for an atmospheric river, we could see something with mega TPW. Yeah me, too…if ONI was measured like at 30 N lat. in the 3.4 area….who knows…that’s what’s weird.
            Anyway I don’t have an answer, thought Daniel might put his 2cents in but I guess not.

  • thunderstorm98

    Partial Solar Eclipse Tomarrow!

  • Kamau40

    There are increasing signs that the storm door will continue to open up over the next couple of weeks. Also, the systems will slowly start to become more amplified and start sagging southward over time. Read also Richard Stolee’s blog below from today:
    http://weatherpro.wordpress.com/2008/04/02/wednesday-morning-weather-summary/

    • Bob G

      Thanks Kamau,
      I follow Richard’s blog last winter and I haven’t seen a forecast like that in awhile. Richard does a great job with the weather. He doesn’t get into discussing all the long range predictions or models. He is brief but good.

  • Bandini

    That radar has looked great over the Pacific Northwest and Nor Cal for days now with more to come, pretty legit fall storms. Seems like it must be a good sign for us?

    • rob b

      Weather underground showing a chance of snow Sunday for parts of Truckee. Hopefully it happens, it’d be nice to see a white ground even if it only lasted a few days. I was in Reno today and it was around 70.

      • Bandini

        I saw that. I’m supposed to go camp this weekend and hike Lassen peak, could be interesting. That’d be great if we got a surprise snow this weekend, it would wreak havoc with all the road work around town!

  • Utrex

    I wish this winter was like this one…
    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/compday.PKlSGt3goD.gif
    Wettest winter in modern history for CA it seems.

    • alanstorm

      Try winter ’64-’65.

      • Utrex
        • alanstorm

          Wow. Not nearly as wet as ’68-’69. The reason I suggested ’64-’65 was because areas of Northern Ca got 60″-70″ of rain for Dec & Jan resulting in record flooding.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            1964-65 was a La Nina year with the PDO oscillating back and forth between – and + and a -AMO. 1964 had a -PDO, and mostly -AMO except for about 4 months in the winter and spring when it briefly went +.

          • alanstorm

            Yes, & that La Nina unleashed a monster of an atmospheric river, arguably the biggest storm to hit Nor Cal & Oregon. Just north of my home received 28″ on Christmas week alone.

          • Xerophobe

            Thanks Dan for pointing out these major differences. None of the years mentioned have SSTA’s even remotely similar either.

        • craig matthews

          1955-56 December and January were very wet across Norcal as well. Some major flooding across Norcal occurred….. I’m still trying to figure out how to do these precip composite anomalies that are being posted here.. I’ve got the link, but slow learner here.

    • My hope for an ideal winter would be for the state to get about 125% to 150% of normal rainfall. More than that, and you begin having problems with erosion and flooding, and a lot of it just runs off because the soil is saturated. And then two more winters like that, at which point the drought be over.

      Up here, it’s raining again now, and it’s a nice moderate rain, expected to last at least 36 hours. There’s even talk of snow at the weekend. We’ve only seen 3″ of snowfall since January of 2013, in a place where 8-14 feet is the normal annual range. I’ll have to check the drought monitor tomorrow. We should be in extreme drought instead of exceptional drought by now.

      • inclinejj

        Zepp. Where are you at?

    • RSpringbok

      California’s water storage is designed for snow, not rain. For maximum drought relief how about 1951-52?

    • Xerophobe

      that was a good one!

  • Weatherwatcher
    • Canyon

      That would be nice! A dream…but nice!

    • David Thomas
    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Given the problems with the data feed that they’ve been having at NCEP, I’d take these model outputs – both the wet and the dry ones – with a bigger grain of salt than usual, especially for 200+hours out.

  • C M

    Looks like the first widespread rain throughout the entire state of California will be on Halloween: we do need it but I am afraid it will put a damper (pun intended) on trick or treating. For people with kids of trick-or-treating age, wouldn’t you honestly be disappointed as badly as we need the rain?

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      My daughters would be distraught if Halloween gets rained out, and considering what I paid for their “Frozen” Elsa and Anna costumes, I would be a bit a bit disappointed as well, but considering the dire drought the state is in, I’ll take the rain whichever day it comes.

      • Great movie! 😉

      • C M

        No need to cancel trick or treating because of rain or they might be traumatized and grow to hate rain for the rest of their life.
        Either get them raincoats to put on top of their Frozen costumes and take an umbrella and go anyway!

        Or go to a mall for store-to-store trick-or-treating.

        Let your little Elsa sing “The rain never bothered me anyway!” and brave the elements……

        We need to stop being California weather wimps because places like Minnesota, their kids put snowsuits on their costume and still go anyway.

  • David Thomas

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
    458 AM PDT Thu Oct 23 2014

    GFS rebuilds a fairly strong ridge over the west coast Wednesday
    and Thursday and has been doing so over the last couple of runs.
    ECMWF and GEM dig the next upper trough into the eastern Pacific
    Wednesday and Thursday bringing cooler temperatures and a
    continued threat of precipitation especially across the northern
    portions of the forecast area. Have leaned towards the more stable
    ECMWF and GEM for now but will continue to watch model
    developments in this time frame.

    sac ADF this AM has went with the more stable ECMWF and GEM the gfs is vary unstable right now so dont for get there are other model runs then the GFS too look at i think its about time that the GFS had a upgrade has it is vary unstable has you can see

  • Utrex

    The Euro is mapping a low 983mb low to impact the Pac NW. This will send a pretty strong front into NorCal, creating some more rain than we expected!
    http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014102300/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_4.png

  • Kamau40

    There are signs now that the long awaited El Nino should finally kick into gear sometime within the next two months and may even reach moderate strength by Dec ’14 or Jan ’15. According to Howard, the Nino 3.4 region is showing signs of increasing and we have a healthy size kw(kelvin wave) moving from west to east along the eq. See this week’s image below of the kelvin wave. The PDO should further become even more positive and would add support for up to a moderate strength El Nino. This would indeed be great news for the West Coast which should help aiding Ca to have a wetter winter: Here is Howard’s quote from this morning and his statement also corroborates with Richard Stolee’s blog:
    “The Nino 3.4 region has bumped to +.6C as of the 19th of October and another .4C of warming over the next few months will considered “Moderate” and make a difference in our winter weather….. the Positive phase of the PDO also strengthened September over October and indications show signs of further strengthening in October…. ” – See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.7ZempJiO.dpuf
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml
    http://weatherpro.wordpress.com/galens-sojourn-throughout-the-united-states-weather-updates/

    • Bob G

      I hope some of the future storms next week make it to Northern and Central CA and this is the start of something good.

      • Kamau40

        I hope so too. The fact we are now seeing a nice AR event setting up here at the end of Oct could very well be a good sign of things to come.

        • alanstorm

          Eureka & North Coastal counties got upwards of 2″ overnight. Rain line is staying pretty much at Cape Mendocino

        • Bandini

          Nor Cal has been doing pretty good the past few days with more to come.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            If only the rainfall would come into the southern Bay Area on southward to Socal!

  • Bob G

    Howard’s long range discussion. Cross fingers.
    Thursday: This mornings Satellite motion showed a well developed AR (atmospheric river) Stretched between the OR/CA border and north of Hawaiian Islands. The rainfall event is now on for the Pacific NW with up to 9 inches+… expected storm totals in some areas. The Nino 3.4 region has bumped to +.6C as of the 19th of October and another .4C of warming over the next few months would be considered “Moderate” and make a difference in our winter weather….. the Positive phase of the PDO has also strengthened September over August and indications show signs of further strengthening in October…. Of Note: The Snow Cover is 5X that of normal south of 60N over Eurasia. Normally on this date there is about 1 million squared kilometers of snow cover south of 60°N across Eurasia and instead, this year there is 5 million. Usually there is a strong correlation of this anomaly to a strong -AO which can send arctic air south over the US. The big question will be what will be its trajectory? If Eastern California is going to be effected, it will most likely be in December. Watch out for an exceptionally cold December over the Great Basin!

    WX Outlooks: ECMWF has a storm for Central and Southern California the very end of October into early Nov. The GFSX does not. Stay tuned….>>>> The CFSv2 has Central and Northern CA in for a wet November……

    Some light rainfall and high elevation Snowfall is expected in Mammoth Saturday….It will be Breezy Friday night with stronger winds Saturday with possible wind advisories… High temps will cool to the upper 40s by Sunday/Monday.

    – See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.UBKRKGWF.dpuf

  • honzik

    Lots of rain pouring into NorCal and PacNW:

    http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/pacnorthwest.php

    On top of that, a nice band of TPW to go along with it:

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/epac/main.html

    (NB: Links are continually updated – not static)

  • politik

    Plenty of rain here on the Oregon Coast with 2+ inch amounts in the last couple days all the way down to CEC and ACV. I’m picking up the beginnings of a discussion from the AFDs of a major SFC low forming in the favored region of 40N and 140-150W. Digging on the backside looks good and moisture is there. These major windstorms are difficult to forecast as they gin up rapidly and sometimes out of the control of the models. Are any of the models daring to wind up a major SFC low in this region and move it inside 130W which would make it major high wind threat?

    • alanstorm

      Wouldn’t that northward advancing warm front the main contributor as well? I’m on a ridge top in Mendo Co & the south winds in the winter really rip through here.

    • Boiio

      The GEM seems to like the idea of a low bombing out off the Oregon coast.

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    With regard to the solar eclipse today – does anyone know if events like a partial solar eclipse are taken into account when the forecasts are formulated? It would seem that a clear day with a partial eclipse lasting for several hours would be equivalent to a partly cloudy afternoon, and would shave a couple degrees at least off of the day’s maximum temperature.

    http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEanimate/SEanimate2001/SE2014Oct23P.GIF

    • Xerophobe

      If it was, I’d sure like to see the “Greek alphabet” math formula for calculating it! BTW nice animation.

      This site is really cool, plug in your own city and watch!
      http://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/

    • What a great graphic! The only thing I would add is “UTC” to the time, although anyone smart enough to compare the terminator with the time is going to figure that out on their own.

    • Robin White

      Very nice collection of BIG sunspots, too.

  • lightning10

    What models give they take. New models where bone dry for So Cal and a lot more dry for No Cal.

    • tblog

      Not surprising. I think we’ve been a bit too optimistic about seeing a pattern shift to one with more precipitation.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        I hate to say this, but we are overdue for a Santa Ana event to get fall kicked into high gear. It feels that here in Socal that we are still in the first stages of transitioning into fall, which feature gradual cooling from the heat waves of September before the first storm system of the fall from the north with a bit of rain or the first dry inside slider in which the first significant Santa Ana follows suit. In other words, it feels to me that we are still in the first or second week of October, rather than the fourth. We did have a bit of a Santa Ana breeze early in the month, but the pattern reverted back to a hot and somewhat humid regime for a little while before it cooled off a couple of weeks ago which appears to be the true transition into an early fall pattern.

        • Ian Alan

          This will be the first October out of the last 7 that there will be no early season snowfall and 0.00″ rainfall unless something pops on the 31st and even so that would be the latest.

          My gut tells me this is a good sign for the upcoming winter….its also telling me I should have slowed down on the Hawaiian BBQ…..

        • SlashTurn

          Have had some east winds all the way to coast here in Ventura the past couple days…consistent, dry offshore at the beach (10-20mph). So nice, and such a clear signal of the changing seasons…But I do think you’re on point with us being a few weeks behind in the major transition. Still feels like summer is hanging on by a thread…

          • Dan the Weatherman

            I didn’t know that the flow actually turned fully offshore up in that area. It has been warmer down here in Orange County, but the flow has been more or less neutral or weakly onshore.

        • dylan

          So weird how humid it’s been, usually when it’s 80 degrees near the end of october, it’s accompanied by santa ana. these days it’s been 80 degrees without a dry wind

    • Bandini

      Nor Cal has been getting rain for days.

      • Only the far north and some of the mountains, though! Still not a drop in October here on the southern part of the SF Peninsula. 🙂

        • Dan the Weatherman

          What is the average rainfall for October for the southern portion of the San Francisco peninsula?

          • For the rain-shadowed areas, around an inch. For the SC Mountains, on the order of 2-3 inches, though there have been some light showers up there this year.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            I didn’t realize that the area averaged that much for this time of year, as I thought that it really didn’t begin to turn wet until November. Hopefully the area receives some rain soon!

        • Bandini

          That is true but I guess I’m referring to Northern California. It seems that many people, typically from Southern California, refer to anything above them as Nor Cal. The areas from Fort Bragg north, which is a decent chunk of the state, seem to have been doing pretty well lately. But yes obviously we need much more rain to much more of the state.

        • We had rain in San Jose this past Tuesday. Not a whole lot to write about, but more than a drop :).

  • Utrex

    Saturday afternoon thunderstorm forecast as of Thursday via NAM.
    Moderate shear present during 2 p.m. Saturday as indicated by hodograph…
    http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2014102318_F51_38.5000N_121.5000W_HODO_SM.png

    Some higher instability can be seen pushing into the valley.
    http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2014/10/23/18/NAM_221_2014102318_F51_CAPE_SURFACE.png

    Moisture is present – enough to advect into t-storms…
    http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2014/10/23/18/NAM_221_2014102318_F51_RH_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png

    Lifting looks significant.
    http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2014/10/23/18/NAM_221_2014102318_F51_VVELD_700_MB.png

    0-3km Helicity values go from 300-400 m2/s2, favorable for rotation in t-storms (supercells). I wouldn’t be surprised to see some strong and/or severe storms forming in the afternoon and evening hours. If conditions are ripe, a tornado or two could spawn. If conditions look even more intense we could see a bit more tornadoes…

    • craig matthews

      Maybe a good time to head up I-5 toward Williams or Orland this weekend and wait with a camera in hand and live radar feed.

      • Utrex

        Not too sure on the 18z atm, but if the rest of the runs continue the severe weather setup then it would probably be good to get ready to take some shots of good structures, tornadoes and the like.

      • Bandini

        I’ll be up in Lassen National Park tomorrow and Saturday. Looks like a fun forecast up there, hope to get some pics.

  • Over the past 30 days, the far North Coast and some of the NorCal mountains have done pretty well in terms of precipitation (including above-average totals around Eureka and in the Trinity Alps). The rest of the state, however–including the urban I-80 corridor and the watersheds draining into most of the state’s major reservoirs, have seen below-average precipitation.

    • Kamau40

      Still too soon. Typically the storm track starts really strengthening and heading south after Nov 15. But, between Oct 15-Nov 15, the Pacific NW and Northern Ca usually start to slowly get into the transitional weather pattern from the summer dry to the wet season.

      • craig matthews

        Current pattern could seam La Nina esque with Pacific Northwest-far Norcal cool/wet and central-socal warm/dry if this was over the course of winter. But this is “October”. Like you say “still too soon”.

    • Bob G

      I see there has been some rain up in Reddng. That is where Shasta Dam is located. Still way to early. We need snow of thw wet kind. But not evening thinking of drought relief yet

    • Sublimesl

      Some of that is the Shasta drainage. Not too much for Oroville however.

  • Crouching Dallas

    In these drought-ful days and comment-reading nights, there’s really only one thing you can do to survive this meteorological quiet before the (PLEASE GOD LET THEM THROUGH) storms – and that is to gaze upon the greatest (and only?) weather(man)-related website in the history of the internet: http://crouchingdallas.com .

    Now, it’s not the newest model projection, nor is it a compendium of useful forecasting tools; rather, it’s an incredibly stupid web page devoted to Dallas Raines, ABC7’s awesome weather man, and his powerful forecasting poses. Enjoy!

  • craig matthews

    Took a small private flight over the southern Salinas Valley yesterday. The land looks grey and brown, especially over the Diablo Range foothills. Typically these lands have a more golden look, with areas of green along the Salinas river and adjacent creeks. Those days are a distant memory. The current condition of the land is a recipe for a dust storm never seen before, a California dust bowl in the making if the rains do not come before the winds. A deep surface low inside 130 next to the NW CA coast could do just that.

  • David Thomas

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_174_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_177_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_180_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_183_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_186_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_189_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    i never seen any thing like this

    WOW this is crazy may be a vary small break then the next round comes

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_204_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_216_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_228_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    we get a few days break then it looks like we get a new storm

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_276_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_288_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_300_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    not has wet has the last two but still some showers

    no more storms after 300hrs but WOW that run was cazy the 1st storm for next thursday looks tooo stall for a few days and gives me and ever one a few days of hvy rain fall i think there a good ch of wide spread 3 too 5″ of rain from that storm for ever one follow by the next storm and then a ligher storm we may need too watch for flooding with the 2nd storm has the ground would be pertty wet from the 1st one but wow that is the best run of the GFS i seen in a long time

  • David Thomas

    i wounder if that rain is from TS ANA if so that is a big shift S there past runs if you recall they had it going way N in too WA OR or BC now it has it comeing in too CA that is a big shift on the GFS

  • David Thomas

    whats see what the next few runs old in store if they keep going with this idea and the ecm is on board with it we ma have a vary wet weekend next week starting thursday

  • Unbiased Observer

    The 00Z GFS is whack…are the satellites still down?

  • Look at that moisture train slamming Oregon right now. Why couldn’t that have sagged down to the Bay Area?

    • Canyon

      Looks like La Nina. I imagine as that Kelvin wave shows up around December/Jan, that sucker will shift south and unleash…

      We are still in October, plenty of time for our winter to set up. Looks good so far though.

  • Beautiful looking Atmospheric River into Oregon.

    http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/image7.jpg

    • Weatherwatcher

      I like the looks of the southern atmospheroc river better. 🙂

  • David Thomas

    oh cares i would per to have the model runs whack with storms storms storms then haveing them nothing with a big high over us

  • alanstorm

    Sustained winds of 25-35mph & gusts above 50 mph expected along North Coastal counties, highest gusts on ridgetops. I’m at 2000ft so I guess that includes me. Better tie stuff down. Pretty still right now.

  • Utrex

    Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms forecasted by NOAA. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

  • Coldspot

    We received 1.8 inches of rain in siskiyou county since yesterday with more to come. Let it keep on raining, just not all at once though.

    • Bob G

      Would love to see some of that spread south

    • We’ve had enough rain this month that there should be some run-off forming. I just checked Shasta Lake, which is at 894.76 feet, still dropping at the rate of about a foot every eight days, but that rate is slowing. This next storm might actually get it turned around a bit.
      I was surprised to see my portion of Siskiyou County is still listed as being in exceptional drought. We’re slightly above average for the calendar year, at about 35″ of rain (we average 50″ a year). 11″ has fallen since early last month, above normal for that period. I thought we would be in “extreme drought” by now.

      • The recent rain is great news. The long-term deficits are so enormous, though, that even with some heavy precip it’s going to take a long time to recover. I do think it’s likely that the far North Coast will see a downgrade in drought severity after this weekend’s system. Still: the core of the drought region over California remains exceptionally dry, and recent precip has not made it that far south. We’ll see what happens closer to the heart of the rainy season…

        • Bob G

          I can tell you here in Central CA where I am it takes a couple of inches of rain before we even see the creeks starting to run. The ground just soaks it in like a sponge. It is so dry now. Our creeks didn’t even run last year. February’s rains just soaked right into the ground.

      • Coldspot

        Actually saw our local creek which almost went dry this fall, start to show a noticeable rise as of this morning. After this weekends storm possibly a rise in the Scott and Klamath rivers to bring the salmon up for spawning.

        • craig matthews

          How are the Happy Camp burn scars doing? So nice to hear these reports from up north. Everyone south of the I-80 corridor are still waiting, hoping something will come south of that line at some point soon here.

  • David Thomas
    • Bob G

      I’ll believe I’ll see dense fog in the valley when I see it. I guess there could be pockets of it. But it is way too dry and warm to see dense fog right now in most places. Fog events in the valley have been decreasing the past several years and that has not necessarily been a good thing,

  • I’ll try to have a quick update this evening, at it appears likely that all of NorCal will see at least some light precipitation this weekend.

  • Kamau40

    We may see our first significant storm of the season later next week going into Nov that could bring more than a foot of snow in the Sierra’s according to Howard. Note, also Richard Stolee says the same thing on this morning’s blog. Something worth watching in the coming days.

    Thursday Midnight Special Update:

    “Longer Range Global Models GFSX and ECMWF have a significant Storm System bringing the possibility of a foot+ of snowfall, the last weekend of October into the first few days of November. The GFSX is more progressive bringing it in the 31st of October while the ECMWF is slower with the system for later in the weekend. Stay tuned to this 1st developing significant storm for the Eastern Sierra.”

    — See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.wpndqGZh.dpuf

    http://weatherpro.wordpress.com/2008/04/02/wednesday-morning-weather-summary/

    • Bob G

      Lets cross fingers. I hope their right,

    • Bartshe

      Howard is perpetually on the optimistic side when it comes to snow, but it’s hopeful chewing gum.

  • Pretty nice looking system slated for tomorrow in NorCal…will try to have a quick update this evening!

  • Bob G
    • Indeed. Trajectory isn’t ideal for a big storm in California, but looks like a decent swath of soaking rains, gusty winds, and maybe some thunderstorms. Update tonight!

      • Bob G

        Our area was given a 40% chance

    • Beautiful storm system.

  • Dan the Weatherman

    It is really warm in Socal today and is currently 86 here in Orange. Hope it cools down again as forecast because I am still tired of the heat even though it has been nice recently.

    • CalNative

      It got up to 89º here today in northeast L.A. This is the Night of the Living Dead summer. It just will not die.

    • craig matthews

      With the longwave GOA trough axis near -140, each shortwave system bottoms out between -140 and 130 off the CA coast, so that a downstream ridge just naturally builds up over socal from the south or southeast, which is shearing these nice looking storms to our northeast. This is a painful sight for those south of the I 80 corridor. I’m going crazy here.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        We need the ridge axis further west (150-160W) with a bit more amplification to get a trough over and just off the CA coast so that rain can penetrate further south.

        • Kamau40

          I think that will eventually happen down the road!!

    • Weatherwatcher

      It was very cloudy and cool here in SD today. It felt like a low pressure system.

  • craig matthews

    I think this is the latest IR SAT pic for today 10-24. There appears to be some tap to the ITCZ with this potent trough offshore, and some recent cooling cloud tops in the mid-high level sub tropical moisture band ahead of the coldfront southwest of the central coast. Being no expert, I just throw out ideas for people to say yeah or neah. But to me, a prefrontal convective band seams possible ahead of this coldfront. Does anyone else see this, or have any thoughts on it. Visible satellite pic off the central CA coast reveals depth to the tropical like feed as well.

  • Archeron

    Havent seen this in a long time! Fog rolling in over the santa cruz mountains near los gatos! That plus an incredible wind that arose about 39 minutes ago. Its feeling like fall here 🙂

  • lightning10

    Something very rare is taking place tonight in the deserts and Vegas. Fog.