Winter has now officially arrived, but the absense of winter-like weather in CA has many people wondering when we’ll start to see the effects of it. The answer: not soon. A very weak system will fall apart as it crosses the coast, bringing only sprinkles or light showers New Year’s Eve (though could interfere with some fireworks displays in NorCal). A wetter and colder…but still not very impressive…storm will impact mostly NorCal by Thursday, bringing storm totals of 2 inches in the far north, around an inch in the Bay Area (+/- 0.5 inch) and less than an inch in the Southland. Snow levels will be low with this system, and the past vestiges of post-frontal showers may be able to squeeze out some snow flurries down to 2000-2500 feet. Some cold nights will follow this storm with clear skies and cold air aloft, and another strong offshore wind event (Santa Anas, again?) will occur, esp. SoCal. And the worse news? That’s the last rain for the forseeable future. 16 day GFS, for what it’s worth, has no more precipitation for areas south of Eureka for the next two weeks. The exception: 6z run of the GFS brought some snow showers to San Francisco on day 16. That just goes to show how confused the models can be in their 2 week plus forecast window. There has been a tendency over the last 48 hours, though, for the GFS to bring in some very cold air from the N/NE into CA as a retrogressive blocking pattern develops, once again, offshore. It’s conceivably possible, but the GFS often shows such dramatic things way off in the realm of “model fantasyland.” In short, don’t expect much relief from the dry, windy, and monotonous weather that has been so persistent as of late.

Happy New Year!