2009

I do apologize for the paucity of updates lately; a surge of new users has once again taken quite a bit of time to manage (though this is a good thing!) and life in general has been quite busy. I have made some minor changes to the site–mainly color schemes and organization. To those new members who were unable to post–thank you for being patient. New comments get caught up in moderation–after you have been approved once, you never have to be approved again.

Just a quick weather update this evening:

A very large and extremely complex storm system is currently situated off the coast of California. A rather weak cold front is currently near the CA coast, perhaps a bit closer that was expected, and could bring some showers overnight (but nothing of any particular note). The entire storm system consists of two significant mesoscale surface-based low pressure areas circulating in conjunction around a common center, producing an extremely complex net gyre as a result of several simetaneous Fijiwara effects. This will continue to cause the numerical models to have a very difficult time analyzing the current pattern. Certain, this system has the potential to bring a lot of rain to CA, especially given the nearly 200 kt jet that expected to be roaring over Central California for at least several days beginning this weekend. The main inhibitor to a major event is the lack of phasing–subtropical moisture may miss the best dynamics–but the models are not showing even present movement very well, so this is all speculative. Really, I would recommend staying tuned, as there is still a very large amount of uncertainty associated with this pattern and therefore its sensible weather implications. Interestingly, the models keep the jet active over CA through the end of the month, and potentially beyond…