2009

After a remarkably active early summer period across much of the state, more appears to be on tap. Unlike recent events, however, this system is expected to be focused mainly on southern portions of the state. A fairly potent but rather small cut off low will dive down off the CA coast over the next 24 hours. Some radar returns are already visible off the far NorCal coast. As it turns out, the low may miss much of NorCal entirely, though it probably will bring some mountain thunderstorms again (what a surprise) and possibly some surprise showers elsewhere. The big story will be south of Point Conception right down to the Mexican border, where at least scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected virtually region-wide. I do expect that there will be at least a few severe storms at some point, but the details are still quite fuzzy attm. A very strange pattern for mid/late June–perhaps unheard of? Satellite pictures of the Eastern Pacific resemble early April, not June, and this has been a persistent pattern. I will update tomorrow with more on the SoCal event and hopefully in no more than 10 days with a new Seasonal Outlook regarding the likely upcoming El Nino event.