2009

Very brief update this evening. The models have changed their tune dramatically since last week. Instead of a memorable heat wave, the present warm period is transitioning into a much cooler one with fairly unsettled conditions. The GFS–which has been the most aggressive with the depth of the cutoff thus far–has continued to trend deeper, further south, and moister with the system. Also, the ECMWF and NAM, which had been showing less dramatic solutions than the GFS until today, have begun to trend toward the more aggressive solutions. This could actually be a significant event, as there will be dramatic cooling statewide and even the chance of precipitation (convection) in some areas outside of the mountains. More tomorrow…