2007

There has been much discussion, ever since the GFS first showed a powerful tropical system making landfall on the eastern Mexican coast, about the possibility that remnant moisture or even a vestigal circulation might survive the trek across the mountainous terrain of interior Mexico and establish itself in the eastern Pacific. It now appears that this may be the case, though it it uncertain what impact, if any, this might have one California weather. Currently, the center of circulation is forecast to enter the Pacific near the tip of Baja in several days. Conditions do not appear to be favorable for regeneration of a tropical cyclone, but it may be worth keeping an eye on. Some middle and high level moisture will probably make it up to SoCal and will likely produce afternoon thunderstorms in the mountains, deserts, and possibly in coastal areas. There remains the possibility, however, that a weak upper low could develop off the CA coast and direct a more substantial slug of deep tropical moisture further north, which would lead to more widespread convective activity as far northward as the Bay Area or possibly farther. Flow patterns are certainly not ideal at the moment, so don’t count on any major rain event. It’s more interesting than what we’ve been experiencing recently, however. Weather-wise, this has been a very boring summer over much of CA. We’ll see if that doesn’t change in the next couple of weeks…